Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20150507 : comparemela.com

CNBC Mad Money May 7, 2015

Whole session unfold with the averages starting of course, but only finishing higher. The dow gaining 82 points. S p advancing, and nasdaq climbing 0. 53 . A terrific setup. A setup for the bulls. Thanks to five major positives. Oil, the dollar, excessive pessimism, Interest Rates and good earnings. All of them went the right way today. Buy buy buy. Lets take them one at a time. So you can understand what made us feel so much more sanguine. First, need oil to stop going up. Then ultimately plummeting two bucks. The rallying and the consistency of the move, the sheer viciousness has obliterated the positive stories that have been driving whole swathes of the market. When you get a huge increase in the price of oil, it amounts to the tax increase on twothirds of the american economy. And its consumer based. You Better Believe thats a gigantic buzz kill. From the lowest at 43 to the peak yesterday at 62 bucks and change, oil was up more than 42 . And if you look at it, it was like this. And if you go and look at the charts of any of the retailers of restaurants or airlines, youll notice it was like that. There was a peak in the stocks that coincided with the bottom in oil. The action has been all bad since then. So bad that it almost doesnt matter what these Companies Said in the Conference Calls or or what numbers they delivered. Dont me . Hit up the airlines, they have been acting like death. Until today. When they were coiled springs traveling dramatically higher. Relief rally, dont know yet. Check out the action in Fiesta Restaurant Group and sonic for the last couple weeks. Theyre both on the show tonight. These two Companies Reported remarkably lets say consistent quarters. Pretty good numbers. All right, not to shoot the lights out, but good. Dennys, darden jack in the box, yet they all look the same. Didnt matter what they said. You have a peak and then a bruising. Even though all we heard was relatively good things. Why didnt they rally . Why didnt even the best of them rally . Why werent they obliterated after relatively good reports . Because big Portfolio Managers are always trying to figure out if the earnings of a company are peaking. Thats a big game they play. And with each of these stocks their judgment was this has to be the last good quarter. That the good quarter is signalled to peak. The only restaurant stories that went up were international and activist. Like Dominos International and yum took off because of actavis. If you missed the quarter or guided negatively then you had a noodles on your hand. Or lesser you had, yes, a chipotle style implosion all because of the rally in oil not what the companies were saying. So a day like this, when oil went lower was a god send. A reason to cover your short positions in the airlines. Rest assured you know the correlation. Stop kicking about why jack in the box is well off the highs as so many of you do in jimcramer on twitter. I want has nothing to do with how well the company has been executing. This is perfect. It didnt suddenly back hack in the box. Its just that the consumer has less money and the presumption is youll spend less too. Its a reasonable assumption. Oil hurt disney. Thats right. Think about it. Disney reported one of the best quarters ever and its down ever since. You have to wonder if the big driver that is theme parks, boy, were those numbers strong, could still stay strong if gasoline goes higher. I say yes, absolutely. Because of some technological changes in some new rides but for the moment all im doing is describing how the price of oil drove the near term performance not of the companies, but of the stocks. Second, oh boy, we need the dollar to stay weaker. At least not get stronger for some time. Now that earnings season is through, we know that analysts and iner haves did not look through currency. They wont say, i wont let that phase me ill act as its constant. No, there were no free currency passes. We know if a companys sales or margins were hurt by the strong dollar the stock didnt go higher. It went lower. What made this really difficult though was that the money from Big International companies have been rotating in and you saw that happen, that was shut off by the rally in oil as well as the Inflation Fears that stem from Higher Commodity Prices and wage gains. Almost every commodity has rallied from the lows. Ise making us its making us nervous about raw cost in inflation. We had to take back some of the gains from the consumer packaged goods. We were thinking gasoline oil, plastic comes down. Gross margin go higher, that may not be right. Plus the International Companies were making major concessions to keep business from going to competitors overseas. We werent competitive. Today, the green beck didnt do nothing, hoping we can see the end of the dollar thats weighed so heavily on the stock. The bad news has made people really pessimistic. Man, is it ever, a wall of pez him. We almost expected stocks to go down. Its a rare occasion they go higher. The charts, theyre almost uni formally horrible. You know they look terrible. The fear that we have seen in the last good quarters from the whole host of sectors is becoming green. When i woke up at 4 00 a. M. , we saw the german bonds get hammered again because business is coming back strong in europe. You know what though were so negative we dont think, wow, how terrific, europe is rebounding. We think, wow, owners of bonds getting hurt turmoil, pain more selling. Just as i abhor big openings i like it when the market is looking down on the open. If you have your Shopping List you can buy when others are panicking. Years ago, Warren Buffett no, it was monday, Warren Buffett aforimism aforimism, you want to buy the stocks that you like. The pessimistic icing on the cake, yesterdays comments from janet yellen. The stocks were overvalued. Doesnt matter she was wrong before. She took the bull and shot it with a bolt to the head. Yet thats the pech perfect environment for the well spring of a rally. You need that negativity. You need to you need the skittish people to get washed out. So stocks can be put in firmer hands. Then Interest Rates. They can go up pretty much every day. But i dont talk about it enough on the show. I get the feeling theyre going to overrun all the stocks with a juicy dividends as thats what tends to happen when Interest Rates ramp. Today though rates went down. And while maybe just a brief bond respite, it changed the landscape for the better. And you may have been disappointed by the same store sales from whole foods, and surprised that tesla didnt explode 20 or 30 points except that what happens to cold stocks. You could have been perturbed by the number from keurig green mountain. And the Conference Call was worse, that was terrible. You want to own that stock and monster through the shareholder that is cocacola. But we also had some huge upside surprises today. None bigger than alibaba which reminded us it can go higher. Just as significant maybe more so for those who follow tech, the amazing quarter from corvo. Corvo is a semiconductor company. Tell us on and why you didnt call yourself trimf or something. It provides key components to the cell phone industry and the read through was simple. The industry including the key customer apple is alive and doing fabulously, that was a fabulous Conference Call. Real good news for semis, so the glaring declines in skyworks solutions, eva ga, semi the other big three and high flying Tableau Software data delivered a terrific quarter. As i said on friday, that might spur another rally in the pricey mob thats mobile social internet of all things. So far, every day like this in 2015 has been pretty much a oneday wonder. With everything positive getting reversed the next session. Okay. We have to prepare for just that as we have that huge employment number tomorrow at 8 30 in the morning. But let me give you the bottom line. You know what, today you know what we discovered today . If you get lower oil, a dollar that doesnt do anything, positive earnings on top of a slew of pessimism, guess what . The market will lap it up. It loves lower rates. It loves lower gasoline. It loves a group of things that give you a recipe for rejuvenated stock market. Its a rarity, but its no longer impossible. It happened once so maybe it can happen again. Renado in pennsylvania. Caller jim big bad booyah to ya. Jim, i have been reading a lot about the drought in california. And i know Lockheed Martin is, working on desalinateing the ocean water. Look, Lockheed Martin along with General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman are my favorites. I like harris too. And orable. But you like Lockheed Martin because youre hoping for overseas orders because were not spending on defense like we used to. But Lockheed Martin is more of a play on the international desire to defend your country. Since were not going to do it for you anymore. Ray in florida. Ray . Caller hey, jim, thanks for taking my call. No problem, ray. Caller i noticed yesterday that the bank of america stock fell after the annual meeting. Whats your opinion on that stock . I talk to stephanie link remember we used to do a lot of stuff with action alerts. We are saying when is this one going to take off . It is an inexpensive stock. Thats what i say, its inexpensive. However, there are other banks i like more. Notably wells fargo. Which we own in my charitable trust. The bulls finally had it made for them today. But unfortunately they may go back in hiding again tomorrow. Be prepared. On mad money whats going on with sonic, the fast food player received up a hot quarter, but investors still passed on the stock. We have to talk to the ceo. Then things are looking up across the pond. I may have found the perfect way to play it. Ill reveal it just ahead. Plus is Fiesta Restaurant Group losing steam . The stock was en fuego last year, but it hasnt brought the heat in 2015. Ill see what see whats cooking with my interview with the ceo. Stay with cramer announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. For months restaurant stocks were the hottest group in the market because the price of oil was plummeting. This is one of the most direct beneficiaries of cheaper gasoline. And then they went radially out of favor. Take sonic across 44 states when sonic reported in late march they delivered some of the best numbers of the quarter. 11. 5 samestore sales space. But the management was conservative so instead of rallying, well, the stock got slammed and its been in the doghouse ever since. Puzzling. So now that the stock has pulled back is it time to do some buying . Sure the price of oil has rebounded but still below what it was a year ago. And as we know, sonic is a wellrun company. Terrific concept. And though its in 44 states its locations are much more highly concentrate in the south. Got a lot of room to expand. The stock has given us a fabulous 37 gain since we spoke to the ceo 11 month ago so lets dig deeper with cliff hudson the chairman and ceo of sonic who last month celebrated the 20th very of his taking the helm. Hes been at the chain for 30 years. Mr. Hudson welcome back to mad money. Thank you, jim. Its a pleasure to be with you. Well, its great to have you on. First, a surprising announcement today because it was not april fools day. Mcdonalds is fighting to reinvent itself. Kale. You had a kale announcement last year, didnt you . Well we had a kale announcement, but it was april fools day as a matter of fact. We said to folks try our kale shake on april fools day. So but in fact, we didnt follow through. We had fun with it. But nobody asked for it either. Right. Well, im trying to figure out, you guys are doing because the stock is down. All that i see that you guys have been doing exactly the statement thing you have been doing for years and years which is making big profits and the market rotated out of the restaurant stocks, not sonic, not doing the right thing. Right. Our business continues to be healthy. The things that are driving it are a differentiated product. Our guys are creative Great Service with differentiated food, made to order food. All the things continue on. They were great on the roll through the winter and they continue to be on the roll this spring. Its very much part of our dna. So our business is very healthy in spite of the stock moving around a little bit. One of the things that was interesting in one of your presentations, your day parts are radically different from any other. You have a huge afternoon business that nobody else has. Yeah. Almost a quarter of our business comes between 2 00 and 5 00, but we focus on breakfast, lunch, afternoon dinner and all five parts, that we call blade. We promote them separately. We have different products to align with them and we have different customers that use the day parts differently. So its a very important part of our strategy. Has been for oh, 15 to 20 years now. The other thing that you guys do that no one else has is this points of personalized service. People dont expect sonic to be at the forefront of technology when it comes to the customer but i think you are. Well, we will be implementing over the next several years so were implementing this now in addition to new point of sale service. The Technology Interface at the drivein stall with the average custer many. It will integrate with social media, our own app that the customer can utilize on or off premises for ordering and paying and integrates with social media off premises and on promises. While we have this now in only about 800 stores out of 3,500 in the system well roll it out through 2015, 2016, 2017. Im quite confident that that engagement with the customer on and off premises in a differentiated way will kind of mirror what we have our differentiated food made to order food and using the technology in the same sort of way. This is going to help drive traffic and drive loyalty over the next several years in a very sonic sort of way. All right. Well, i think that the case for the company and stock are clear. But the one thing that did confuse the analysts is the buy back, whether its done or going on hold. You have been one of the most aggressive buyers of your own stock. Im assuming that nothing has change and well get good news in 2016. Nothing has changed from that standpoint. We continue to buy back our own stock. We as a Franchise Company, we generate a lot of cash flow. And this is one of the good uses for it from our standpoint. Were very optimistic, very bullish about the business. We continue to buy back our own stock. Okay. Because i thought that the authorization was kind of done for 2015. 2016. Sounds like that youre in there. Yeah. Theres still a little bit left for this fiscal year. But well in the coming months talk about next year as well. But the fact is as the business generates the sales that it does and as a Franchise Company and a royalty stream and an ascending royalty rate well continue to buy back and the stocks will be part of our use of that cash. Well, were getting a real chance to buy sonic. I was surprised it went down so much. Cliff hudson, chairman and ceo of sonic. Congratulations on your 20th anniversary at the helm sir. Good to see you. Thank you. I appreciate it very much. Guys, look, i know it doesnt seem its the right time to buy it because gasoline is going higher. But this is down huge. This is a wellrun long term situation. I would buy some. Mad money is back after the break. Coming up losing steam . The stock behind taco cabana enjoyed a sizzling 2014. But the Fiesta Restaurant Group has struggled to stay spicy this year. Can it start turning up the heat again . Cramers checking out the menu with the ceo. Selle is sell sell. We can look at the stock and bond route around the world thats been happening till today. The one thats created more than 2 trillion losses in two weeks. And we can certainly run for cover. Or we can take a look at whats causing the route and find the winners the winners being made right now because of it. Its difficult to separate the emotions of the losses from the cold, hard precipitating facts and thats what you have to do if you want to be a good investor. Others are blaming the rise in the dollar or the vicious backup in the european rates or the feds raising the rates possibly because of inflation. What has really changed underneath it all . What is fundamentally different that ease caused the turmoil . I think europe is getting better. Im talking about spain, portugal, italy, france. All of the other countries by the craziness of greece. Thats happening because the European Central bankers created a situation like here. Remember when the fed got uber activist activist . You dont want to own anything other than growth vehicles. Yeah you wanted to buy anything else any other asset quality. Any other asset had greater value than their bonds. And they still do. Even if your bond yields have increased because they have only increased radically on a percentage basis. I would never buy a bond in europe right now. The moves by the central bank may have been unorthodox. But like it or not, theyre working. Dont hear enough about this. Europes gigantic economy 77 Million People its humming. When an economy improves many things occur. More people get put to work thats good. Sales increase good. Profits grow, good. Lending resumes, good. Bad debts go down, good. Tons of things that are good. Which brings me back to the original question about pick winners. When were buying stocks it should go higher because of the huge and positive sea change. Lets take a look at ppg. Run by ceo c

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