Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20150112 : comparemela.com

CNBC Mad Money January 12, 2015

We saw this when stocks looked like they would run with the bulls. When i fired up the pc at 3 30 a. M. It seemed like our market was about to explode up perhaps as much as three quarters of a percent. Since every major stock market was roaring and oil was drifting down, not a lot of fervor. And then a parade descended on this market like a flock taking everyone by surprise. First oil rolled over in a big way. I will tell you about oil later. Every time oil gets pounded not a gentle push but a genuine beat down where sellers are giving it the business you get a huge slug of selling just about everything. Only the restaurants and bio tech were spared because restaurants are viewed as beneficiaries of lower prices at the pump. There is a lot of deal making at bio tech. We have a box of morton salt and a sack of mrs. Dash poured into the wounds by Goldman Sachs. It is one bullish forecast for oil pretty much in half as news trickled down of that bludgeoning. You could tell crude would drop. And then we got not one, not two but three punches right to the gut. Three announcements that cut out the hearts of the bulls as swiftly as extracted some pour guys heart in that moment in indiana jones. We know the consumers got spare change in their pockets. I felt so flush after spending only 1. 99 on gasoline yesterday that i bought a wholeal gaen of windshield wiper fluid. You know what i didnt do . Take the extra 20 once destined for the pump and splurge at tiffanys. Maybe thats why tiffanys didnt make the numbers. Last week we had two which gave you bummer numbers. Tiffany doesnt really specialize in items below 5. And it doesnt coupon the heck out of the world. Maybe it should because publicly traded store severely disappointed in the United States when same store sales falling 1 . I thought the u. S. Was strong. The result a 14 stunning decline in this stock. It was a breath taking unexpected move. It just brought retail to its knees not to be outdone in a stock market horror land. Tech star san disk which made flash memory one of the hottest areas preannounced a real doozie of a short fall citing retail weakness. Last week micron gave us an inkling that things werent so hot there. No one seemed to care. This was no inkling today. This was a flash anville dropped on our heads. San disk is a much loved stock because it has robust growth which many seem to think will protect it from the down side. The stock rivalled tiffany. Like tiffany those terrible pin action as san disk is a component in a lot of devices especially samsung products. Literally every component stock got pulverized. I have sky works, a terrific play. Micron fall back to the lows of the day last week when reported that flash had gotten weaker. Looks like we were whistling past the downgrade. I know it could have been worst. Last blast how about one that was totally off the beaten path a seat mileage short fall from american airlines. When i saw that i couldnt believe it. I was double checking and triple checking it. I cant fathom how san disk relates to energy. American airlines . Wasnt that the sweet fall . A revenue short fall was unexpected. Ozunexpected as tiffany was to retail. All airlines had to get hammered. It was ugly. It was ugly. It was uglier than peytons arm. Ugleer than Aaron Rodgerss leg. I thought the damage could be to retail tech and airlines. Oil broke down another dollar another 6 1 2 year long. Get used to that term. Whole oil and gas slaughtered. I know there were bulls that noted even though oil hit a low the oil stocks are still well off lows. Many of the more positive folks, there are a ton of them. They are taking that failure to take out the lows as a sign that we are close to a bottom. I have to come back to the fact that so many people are trying to call a bottom. Why werent we totally oblit rate obliterated . Bio tech darn stocks wont quit. We will be talking to companies in the stock all this week. The next generation saved this generations day. Isis jumped another 1. 5 . Its the good isis. Nps pharma taking advantage of a terrific drug franchise. Acoroa. Agios jumped again on the strength of an interview with meg terrell. Regenron did it again. Bristolmyers announced a break that it had to break up the study because it just wasnt fair to deny the drug to those taking the placebo. It was hard to keep the entire market down. When the first big decline in oil the market does get hammered. It tends to go down in oil and the rest of the market consolidates and causes so much of the market to stabilize that we are back to depending on the new set of earnings and whether we will rally or fall. Good news later on in the show. Alcoa good but it is the day to day. Tech, oil and retail took a stand. Restaurants and bio tech couldnt save us but it wasnt for lack of trying. How about sherry in new york . Hello jim. I must tell you i am a huge fan. I just adore you, love your positive Energy Enthusiasm and the sanity you bring to this manic market. You have a british accent too. Caller i hope i am not too cheeky when i say i look forward to you every night, jim. Not cheeky at all. Very reassuring. Caller i am calling about dlak which is a play of these falling oil prices. You think this stock would be up orders of trucks and suvs are up. Ford and gm stock are up. Trak had a rocky day. I want you to stay in it and i want to thank you for those masterfully kind comments. Made me feel pretty good. I want to go to teeno in arizona. Caller booyah, jim from arizona. You are going to be the site of the seahawks patriots game. What is going on . Hes a colts fan he didnt like that. He is looking for green bay and colts. It does happen. I wont make that mistake again. Kevin in maryland. Caller booyah to you. I run a Distribution Company and the fuel bills have been wonderful. We have a 35 decrease. The stocks are doing wonderful. Would fed ex be a good one . They can be using fuel on the air and the ground. Some parts are passed through. Fed ex has been a hot stock. It is consolidating after a dynamite quarter. A lot of people were worried about the overall economy. As fed ex comes in i suggest buy it not sell it. When oil comes down quickly you are best to run for the hills. As much as bio tech tries to save us. Remember we are in a day to day market right now depending upon earnings. Speaking of earnings mad money tonight a closer look at alcoa. Stocks soared more than 50 . I have ceo. How low can oil go before players start feeling the heat . Kicking off our new series bio tech with the biggest deals of the day. I am getting right behind this. We like this. And also i will talk to the ceo and get his take on the biggest trends on the smoking hot sector. Why dont you stick with cramer . Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow at jim cramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Hi. Jon and Pete Najarian here. The popularity of options trading has skyrocketed. But we still hear from viewers every day who dont know how to profit from them. So we wrote an entire book to show you how we trade options. And if youre one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover the shipping and handling well send you a copy for free. Look at the rates of return weve made on some of our recent options trades versus what we would have made if wed just bought the stock. Theres no comparison. To make the best returns in todays markets you have to learn how to trade options. And our book will show you how we do it for free. 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Mattress discounters with the first earnings season of 2015 kicking off today it is time for us to pay close attention to alcoa that is always the First Company to report and a company that gives you vast insight into auto trucks, commercial construction packaging and heavy industrial machinery. I have been a huge fan of alcoa and the leadership of the one transforming into more of a diversified manufacturer of high value added aluminum products for airplanes and automobiles. Moving off a 29 cent basis with higher than expected revenues. Let you dig deep with chairman and ceo of alcoa and hear more about the quarter. Welcome back to mad money. Hello, jim. This was the First Quarter where i feel like alcoa is a bit like 3 m, like honeywell. You have organic growth of things that you have created. How much of your earnings which was a nice surprise came from things that had been inventedory discovered or invented since you became ceo. Many of those things makes it hard to pin point to when it starts. We are happy at where we are with 14 Revenue Growth 15 of that organic. If you look at the last quarter we basically showed we are using organic as well as inorganic growth opportunities. Announced and closed it and we hope to close in the First Quarter, very confident with that. That increases our portfolio on the jet engine side and the titanium field. At the same time we announce things like micromill materials which are total break through new materials combining things that could never combine before it was strength and now you can get it all in one. Thats where we are going. We have a full pipeline with these things. This is i think what we will continue to see. At the same time on the upstream side weal have been coming down mitigating against wherever the volatility of the markets will get us. That is the whole philosophy. We have been talking about that and we can see it. The impact i think is something we would benefit from. You are predicting acceleration in aero space. I am trying to see what it will look like at the end of this year. You see it getting stronger. We arice iclooking at primarily an auto company with other provisions being pulled along. The good news is we love aero space and automotive. You see aluminum growth because we are replacing existing materials and innovating. I would not say those are the only things we could get excited about. Look at commercial transportation. We talked about the u. S. Truck market and it has been an exciting market. It continues to show nice signs of strengths which we predict for the next year. We are in with wheels which is a very nice one. Look at the North American Building and construction market. It finally came back last year. We project it to continue to grow further this year. We have a full range of products for this market. Finally i dont know whether you saw it somewhere hidden in the message there the turbines. It has been such a drag. Is that natural gas shift occurring around the world . No no no. Its actually smart management of some of the oems. There has been innovation that has attracted the desire from customers to invest and change their portfolio. Its largely the big new highly effective, highly efficient gas turbines. The second thing is that companies have been very creative in finding ways how to revamp existing products where we actually benefit a lot from because most of it requires that you shift out a lot of the internals, the blades and those types of things. That is the stuff that we make. You are right, thats a very nice thing that we are seeing there, finally. A lot of people have been bemoaning the fact that oil is coming down. Alcoa has a different thesis. When energy costs come down your earnings go higher. Actually yes, they go higher directly because we directly benefit from it. I think the bigger aspect here is what i think we have been hearing from the experts in the last month where it looks as though this seems to be not something just fluctuating but could stay around for a little while. The predictions that i have seen from renowned economists where if they say oil stays at 40 a barrel you can get a boost for the economy between 0. 4 to 0. 8 additional growth. That is obviously wonderful and would be a nice thing to happen. Are we going to put to rest now that you see the cost structure go down, put into rest that alcoa has to break up . Well look you see the logic that we have. We really are firing on both cylinders. We have always said we have two prong. We want to build out on the multi material innovation powerhouse. That shows the results in the mid stream and down stream. At the same time we said lets make sure that we also get the maximum value out of our upstream business. I cant predict where premiums are going to go. What i can predict is if we are low enough on the cost curve at one time i make more money and the other time i make less money. The question we are asking ourselves can other owners add more value to it . We look at this all the time. At this point we have come to the conclusion this is a very good combination and it works. Last question can you make enough of the f150 metal for every car company that wants it right now . Well we as alcoa are catering basically to the whole industry. The industry has been a little tight on this. Our philosophy is relatively simple. We believe its not just about making the same material. Thats why we announced in december our micromill based materials. Thats the logic here we want to have product that create value for our customers and create value for us. This is where the designers knew if i want more strengths i get more weight and less ability. We found a formula where you have less weight and more strength. Thats a formula that pretty much every car designer has been looking for. This is our philosophy there. We have a nice automotive business growing and doing fairly well. You see some of it in the Fourth Quarter numbers. Congratulations for your best quarter in many, many years. Good to see you, sir. After the break i will try to make more money. Coming up, surviving the slide. As black gold continues to plunge which players in the oil patch have what it takes to withstand this massive decline . Cramers drilling down to see who is best equipped to weather the storm. At what point is the price of oil too low for its own good . At what point do they Start Playing havoc . These are important questions right now. It is hard to pin down solid answers. We have denials by pretty much every firm that it might be trouble and opportunities for secure debt. Take southwestern energy. In october before oil and natural gas the company picked up 5. 3 billion in properties including 413,000 prime shale acres in pennsylvania and west virginia. It included 1,500 wells producer 360 million cubic feet of gas every day. Since then pricing for oil and gas has collapsed. Even though the newly acquired acreage is good we know it didnt spike during polar vortex which suggests it might have gotten the short end of the stick. Since that southwestern has dropped from 32 down to 24. This stock was trading at 48 last april when there was heavy call option buying. Man, was that ever wrong . One thing is for certain. After today nobody is going to bid for southwestern. 20 million depository shares. The offerings will cure any issues involving cash flow. Crisis averted. Here is the problem. With oil plummeting Goldman Sachs a former bull now turning bear and using 40 price target, the one thing we do know is there are a lot more out there. Very few have southwesterns pedigree. Southwestern is the highest of high quality gas companies. If you have been stuck owning the stock the offerings is the last thing you wanted to see. They wont be able to raise money easily. I think there is still way too many people bullish on the oils if Goldman Sachs. Consider this company is the best of the best by far finest oil in the world. Given the decline from 118 in july around the time that Morgan Stanley pronounced the greatest opportunity in the year down to 78 i think that perhaps maybe now is finally a great opportunity, certainly cheaper than Morgan Stanley did. But then i looked at where oil was trading the last time it visited the levels was around 100 a barrel. I looked at how many recommendations were around the thing. I discovered the vast majority remain bullish. That combination makes the stock too dicy. It is the highest Quality Company in the world. There is more pain ahead. Dont buy. If oil goes below 40 i believe there will be a cash flow decline. I remain bullish about what lower oil can mean for our economy overall there is no way to be bullish on the oil patch itself. Not with the pain that gets triggered by the short fall and the possibility of the southwestern scenario or worst, the companies that bought off more than they can chew. Dont try to be a hero. I think it is too early to start bottom fishing in the group. Lets go to arizona. Booyah. Big fan, big fan. Today my question is juneau therapeutics purchased it at the ipo. Do i hold it or do i sell . I want you to sell half and play with the houses money which is a thing of beauty and my ultimate goal in life. We need to go to ann marie in indiana. Caller thanks for taking my call. My mome state of indiana. I hope you will help me. And then part two i have conoco and chevron, which one do you prefer . Conoco yields 4. 6. All it has done is gone back to what it was in the spring when oil was higher. How about jake in california . Caller how are you . Im doing good. How about you . Caller im doing fine. Two questions for you. I like solar city. With oil dropping so much i am hesitant on buying an energy stock. What is your take on solar city short term and long term . Do you think now is a good time to get to oil . Too early to get into oil. More down grades and more things we saw at goldman. Solar city will get taken down with it. As much as you may like the company it does trade with oil. Maybe it shouldnt but it does. There is a point where oil is considered too low for its own good. I wouldnt be surprised if we see more pain in it. Much more mad money ahead including a stock i loved. Got the exclusive with the ceo. My week long series the n

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