Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20150109 : comparemela.com

CNBC Mad Money January 9, 2015

That gains ground or sheds point in a heart beat as it did today with the dow sinking 171 points s p falling. 84 and the nasdaq declining. 68 you might think we plummeted off todays labor report that huge big number, but ill explain later, those strong numbers, it was actually terrific for stocks. I think were trapped in the irrational world where a sharp decline in oil like we had at one point today gives scared cats a reason to. Sell sell sell. Stocks. There is where individual earnings reports can have a big market so when bed, bath and beyond and macys and five below posted disappointing sales, it caused the retail to give up the ghost after two days of out sized gains and that spilled over the pin action to the rest of the market. Yes, individual earnings reports are being magnified and reverberate throughout all stocks and the impact will get more powerful. So let me give you my name plan to guide you through the first week of this hallow ground. Pressure is on alcoa. For several years i heard cat calls that i thought too hutch of alcoas ceo because i pounded it in your heads to buy the stock when it was in the mid to high single digits. Now, though with the stock at 16 doubles the last 16 months, i hear a lot of people climbing aboard the alcoa band wagon, come latelies if you ask me. Short term because of the aluminum soft, and it is soft, this could be a tough quarter but i like the longer term direction as it makes it far less hostage and for more oriented toward secular growth that doesnt need economies to boom. They bought companies that make alcoa to the growth of the aircraft industry and durable yet lightweight materials able to replace steel in cars and trucks. He came up with a verb lightweighting, i mean it. Let me tell you why im river visited by the four times a year alcoa school, its because they put on a clinic telling you how nonresidential construction packaging are doing and breaks them down by region. As i say in get rich carefully, you need a world view how the Global Economy is growing, a sense whether things are Getting Better or worse. I use the thinking to help form my world view and his words when it comes to the growth of the different business lines. Monday kicks off a the Jp Morgan Health Care Coverage that breaks more news and gives you more insight into this important sector than any event i know. Were going all in with this conference inviting many key players in the biotech, the next generation series that are making so much news and have so many big moves in the stocks moves like one agenus had today. Tuesdays csx tells us about a the state of the railroad. Here is another schooling which businesses are doing well and which ones not so well. To give you the earnings i want to hear whether cole shipments, thats an important line of business are dwindling given that natural gas incredibly hasnt spiked despite the cold weather that could keep utilities from switching to coal. We have that much natural gas it doesnt even jump when the whole country is in the freezer. Then we also have a full day analyst being one of my absolute favorites and changed the whole complex of the show. Monster beverage a huge beneficiary of lower gasoline prices because the products are sold in stores often affiliated with gas pumps. It traces out a phenomenal story and cocacola owns a big chunk. Im sure there will be plenty of buzz of any hints of a cozy relationship. Im dreading wednesday. Why . Because we get two bank reports simultaneously, jp morgan and wells fargo and bank owners are prone to misinterpretation and trade when the headlines come out and people who do that are as dumb as a bag of hammers. Im not kidding. Here is my real apprehension. Both banks are trading in the direction of Net Interest Margin or nim and what they make on deposits. They dont trade on earnings or revenues, who is number one or number two and the number of loans and the dollar size of fees. Its this one number and the banks are having a hard time surprising on that line item because Interest Rates have to be much higher for them to make that much more money. Instead rates are plummeting that will make it difficult for these banks to offer positive guidances. If you dont own them wait until after the report because i think some will be disappointed no matter what and yes im interested in buying this one if it comes down. Those of you who havent heeded my caution on oil, get ready for some real pessimism on thursday when schlumberger tells the truth on the Conference Calls. I seen them bring down the entire oil and gas sector with a negative outlook and with oil being slashed left and right and i dont see how schlumberger could be positive even though slob as we call it is the greatest oil company of all time and thursday brings three companies that i think are going to tell very positive stories which could counter act schlumbergers impact on the market and the three are intel, lennar and ppg. Its the best performing stock in the dow jones industry jell average. The ceo unsung except for me because i sing his praises all the time will emphasize the spending is done for now and the focus is trying to meet the demand for chips that go into personal computers of all shapes and sizes, high quality problem. Tech acted great today. I think it can continue. Intel is a buy. Steward miller the ceo of lennar was worried about the industry for home buyers to give credit. Fha fees may come down and consupercon consumers feeling flushed but that will lift the home industry out of recession levels because Mortgage Rates plummeted and affordability is Getting Better and better. I bet this group moves up on lennar. Ppg reports and this looks like what nelson pelts, the activist investor, more on that later wants dupont to look like. Played to ppgs strengths, coatings and paints. I bet ppg blows the numbers away because its fuel here saving a fortune with the price of energy down. Last time it report add terrific number and what happened . It got hammered and i told you to buy it. Darn thing roared. I want you to get ready for a repeat situation. On friday we hear from goldman sachs. This quarter will be good because there is such a lot of volatility. Remember what i said at the top . Yes, its volatile. Roller costar is good for gold man, thats terrific news full disclosure once worked at a. My favorite now, sorry gold man is morningen stanley because i love the Wealth Management business and im not that thrilled about Government Intervention which is something you have a lot of when youre a broke broker house. Here is the bottom line earning season is back. We need to learn. We need to be good pupils and Pay Attention to what the ceos are saying to get a handle on the start of 2015. Fortunately, next week we got pretty darn good teachers to learn from. Chris in alabama, chris . Caller cramer. Yo yo. Caller booyah. I like that. Whats up . Caller with gold being down lately, which one of the following gold stocks you would recommend . Barrett gold preport or bhp . Youre three for three. The only one i would recommend is ran gold because there is real gain but i prefer the gld. Alex in florida, alex . Caller hey, jim. I watch the show all the time. Your books are great and i appreciate what you do. Thank you. Caller you told us the recent decline in gas prices will put more money in consumers pockets and benefit the retail sector. One of my favorite is five below however the stock took a beating when they lowered the guidance for the current quarter. Are people over acting or time to sell . Five below finished eight below. I thought that Conference Call was very confused. I thought the narrative was not a good one. It didnt make me feel like that the stock is done going down. It made me think at one time that five below ought to rein reinvent itself. It wasnt a good quarter. They got to get it together because i know them. They are better than that. Guys at five below, youre better than that. Earning season is back and better than ever and well have a lot to learn from next week. Ill help you get through the sea of numbers. Not all stocks were in the red today, one biotech soared a monster 29 . Is this just the beginning . Ill reveal and see what is next and americas job growth looked great but what is with the weak wages and what does it mean to your stocks . The heated boardroom brawl at dupont. Should you snap up the stock or stay aaway . Why dont you stick with cramer. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow at jim cramer at twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, hashtag mad tweets. Send jim an email to mad money at cnb cdot come or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to mad money. Cnb cdot come. Female announcer its time to make room for the new mattress models during sleep trains huge year end Clearance Sale, get beautyrest, posturepedic even tempurpedic mattress sets at low clearance prices. Save even more on floor samples, demonstrators, and closeout inventory. Plus, free sameday delivery, setup and removal of your old set. Why wait for the new models . Sleep trains year end Clearance Sale is on now . Guaranteed your ticket to a better nights sleep i need to note that we looked at all the prognosis a year ago and what they said 2014 would bring and one of the people closest to predicting the reality was this guy jim cramer so jim, you called it far better than just about everybody else. Wow, hey, take it where you can get it. That was secretary of labor thomas perez on squawk on the street. It turns out were creating jobs in the country like mad as we saw from todays robust payroll number. 25 2,000 new hires and i think it can continue in 2015 because our country is the Fastest Growing economy in the whole world. For many thats unexpected but what is truly difficult to predict is when well get wage increases. When will you get the raise . Despite the strength of the economy that has 5. 6 unemployment, the number the fed hoped to reach one day, we nevertheless saw an avenue a rage Hourly Earnings decrease of five cents . Thats astounding, people. You can throw out pretty much everything you learned in econ 101 since wages should increase as labor pools get tighter. What could keep earnings down . Fighting for jobs . Remember there are millions of people out of the labor force but would love to be working. Could be pressure pressure that comes from the ability of companies to move offshore if they want to. Average wage in mexico is 5. 50 an hour. Its 24. 57 here and there is no mexican goods, could it be december stir desperation. We have such a spike in Student Loan Debt people will work for less. Professional and Business Services thanks rose by 52,000 workers. Construction jobs increased by 48,000. Food service and drinking places added 44,000 jobs and health care gained 34,000 employees. These are susceptible to the pressures i traced out but could be Something Else at work. Something we saw for example recently in retailers like j. C. Penney this week and macys and pure one last night. The closing of unproductive stores with the highpaying jobs that come with them and the hiring of fewer people to man the companies with businesses, they are. Coms. The internet is causing disruption where higher people are needed to do lucrative jobs and paying fulfillment positions in large part in the case of retail because of amazon and companies cant compete on goods, so they compete on price. This is a good news bad news story for you. Its a phenomenal sorry for you as an investor with the exception of those at the very top of each industry, wages dont go up as sales do. More earnings go to shareholders and more capitals returned in dif danlt dividends and buybacks. You have a Federal Reserve that wants to keep Interest Rates low and working hard to integrate wagesaving technology and a surplus of labor with heightened competition and technology is displacing or to put it in terms we understand, we have high growth with low inflation. Even as thats precisely the opposite of what we were taught what we were taught should happen when we took economics. You know what they have to do . They have to rewrite the textbooks in this new Technology Driven world. The old ones dont make any sense anymore. How about we go to bob in new jersey, bob . Caller hi, jim. Hi, bob, how are you . Caller this is bobby from new jersey. I wanted to bite rite aid since it was 4. 4 442. I missed that. What would be a good entry level and what point and how much upside . This is a good point. Ill use this by bob who lives about a mile from me to say. Rite aid, we liked it every time it got hammered. Every time it got hammered we liked it. I took a lot of heat. Ive been a heatseeking missile. You dont buy rite aid at 7. 80. It just ran. This stock gives you a chance all the time. Take it when you have the chance not now. Or as karen cramer would say hey, it already moved. Say it a little nicer, maybe. Anyway todays labor report was good news bad news but for the stock market terrific and in this tech until driven world things are changing. Much more mad money ahead. Has that moved too much like rite aid . I dont know and a fierce battle for control as dupont ensames. Dont miss my take and it sounds terrible but i found a bright side to those big cyber hacks. Stick with cramer. Lets get ready to rumble. Last night we learned that the hedge fund run by nelson peltz is launching a proxy fight with dupont. Peltz nominated four candidates for election to duponts board of directors usually held in late april and the ultimate goal is to break up the company to unlock more value. I think this is the most important proxy weve seen in ages which is why i want to dive into more. His involvement could send dupont stock higher whether or not he actually wins the proxy fight first background. For years dupont is trying to spin itself and focus on its more proprietary businesses. Peltz has been a shareholder since august and they want to break up the Company Along the lines but while management has done a lot to unlock value announcing the spin off of the Performance Chemical Division not enough for peltz as a colemans team is created. So what exactly does he want . Peltz is proposing due monthpont break itself into two companies focused on agriculture, health and bio sciences and the other a business that would include the performance materials, safety and protection electronics and communications businesses. Peltz believes splitting the company up could cause the stock to double. Buy buy, buy. In value over the next three years. Bold claim. He makes a pretty compelling case, though, that dueponts structure has consistently been a drag on the companys performance and will continue to do so. Peltz points to two to 4 billion in excess corporate cost and dupont doesnt feel those are excess and doesnt understand the logic but dupont is a complicated mix of businesses and it does make it difficult for management to get its head around the company and what its doing and part of that is because peltz says there are layers of bureaucracy. Peltz believes the capital structure is inefficient and because dupont is so complex, it gets a lower evaluation than a pure play on anything hence the desire to break into pure play growth that would be loved by the growth hounds and perhaps one day could get a take over bid and perceived mistakes the Management Team he thinks made over the years including the sell of the coating business in 2012 carlisle for much less than it turned out to be worth as well as what he says is the companys repeated failure to deliver on sales and earnings. On the other hand dupont has been with Commodity Exposure and rolled out an impressive 1 billion cost cut and announced a 5 million buy back cheered here and to be physical therapy to dupont on this coating sale to carlisle, look if the economy turns south and many said it would, coleman would have got the better of that deal. It didnt. Still, thats apparently not enough for peltz who insists on more evaluation than he wants to push for with a board seat with three others of again, a highly qualified group he put together. I could spend all night going back and forth between the argue aments and the view the company should remain in one piece. I like both people. Hes the best of the best and coleman has done much of what peltz wanted and done well but i think that whole debate misses the point of what im out here to talk about. What is the point . Simple. The fact that peltz is launching a proxy fight tells you hes serious about the 24. 4 million share position in dupont and when nelson peltz takes a position, he has an incredible track record of causing the stock to go higher. As i pointed out last year peltz is the only activist investor that i could find who makes sense to piggy back off of even after hes announced his position. In other words, if you bought a stock after nelson peltz disclosed that he is taking position, you have consistently outperformed the s p 500. Ive done the work people. Whether he wins or loses, this situation will put a lot of pressure on management to deliver stronger results and create more value, which should be a good thing for the share price, nothing like the performance you get when you hold someones feet to the fire is there . The scrutiny will make it better. I would have let peltz on the board to get ideas and other ceos i know that worked with him had nothing but positives to say about him and his ideas, including the former ceo of heinz whom peltz fought to get a board seat and remember the former ceo of heinz came on mad money said hey, jim, peltz had a good idea and had good ideas. We learned that the hedge fund took a stake in may of 2012 and peltz convinced them to break up or at least spin off a the security business in late 2013 and the company boosted the dividend and a buy back. The end results, up 90 since peltz disclosed the position with the 40 gain over the same period. Thats impressive or consider wendys which is another stock you like where peltz got the company to sell arbys and turned the business around. Since the arbys sale in 2011 wendys roared 112 crushing the 62 move in the s p. We liked it and had a really good burger and shake. Or how about heinz whi

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