Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140514 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140514

Been so altered that were still dealing with it every day in the Financial Markets and just dont know it. Thats how i feel today after the shocking decline in Interest Rates that seems out of sy, this c with the averages. A decline in Interest Rates that i think actually caused the averages, bonds into stocks to hit the skins. Dow falling 101 points, nasdaq declining. 72 . When Interest Rates have gone down in the past, stocks have almost always gone up. Kind of lock step. But the linkage has been broken for certain of late. Now people just fret that if rates are going down, well, we have to be teetering into recession. How else can you explain it . Thats the wrong conclusion people. Theres a lot more at play including a newly frugal american chopper. Part of my some what reserved outlook comes from stress tests, reflections on financial crises. The new book by tim who i will be interviewing in new york city right after the show as much as i lived through the crisis like many of you came out on the other side. The scar tissue from the touch and go this is a chilling look at how we were a few heart beats away from a second depression. There was a moment there when congress initially failed to pass the troubled Asset Relief Program so i went on nbc nightly news before the show and said i dont know if our atms will keep spitting out cash. Stress tests. Turns out i was right. Thats frightening. But thats only one example of the chaos that befell our company. Im thinking if i see these Interest Rates going down action maybe we changed too. Maybe were a nation of cheap stakes and spend thrifts. Were seeing some truly crazy things that cannot be explained by conventional thinking and are totally weighing on stocks at this moment. No, dont touch your remote. You have to hear me out. Even though i just mentioned the dullest word in the english language. Ill do it again. Bonds. Today we have a tremendous inflation number. Im worried about that. Now in the 35 years ive been trading on wall street including a prolonged period as a guy that used to swing hard in the bond market, rising inflation has always been met with one thing, rising Interest Rates. Not today. Today rates went down. They went down big. Ten year treasury is all the way back to 2. 5 where it was before employment took off in this country. That shouldnt be possible. Its like a square peg being able to fit into a round hole. We thought Interest Rates were staying down over fears of a war in ukraine. Tensions waned for the moment. Lets take that off the table. Of course theres other reasons. For example, spain, a country that has 26 unemployment is now paying just 2. 8 for their holders of its ten year paper. Thats down from a 7. 6 in mid 2012. Thats ridiculous. Thats a bubble. Especially when compared to our safe bonds that pay 2. 5 . We see the same thing in all the other troubled European Countries too and theyre still troubled. Someone might want to buy our bonds and short theirs betting spanish bonds are in a bubble. That trade makes sense plus the u. S. Government isnt issuing as much ten year debt as it used to or as much as were expecting. Its shrinking thanks to higher tax receipts and less spending by the government. It makes sense that rates could come down as bond prices rise. Still, though, our Federal Reserve was buying a huge percent of those bonds not long ago in order to keep rates low. Now they tapered their lying. Theyre acting as if the fed is buying them hand over fist. The fed has trillions of dollars on its Balance Sheet. They can sell a big portion of that right now in this open market and maybe not even sate these bond buyers which brings me back. That movie where he describes the run on the banks. What i think has happened is that Friendly Bank that supported Community Lending has been replaced by potters stingy bank that doesnt want to give loans and consumers are afraid to borrow. Borrowing is way down in america. Home buying is way down. Back to levels shocking given the vast size of our country. People arent having kids the way they used to. Perhaps because they think they cant afford them. A huge percentage of married couples still live with their parents. Warren buffet questioned how long that trend could last because people get tired of living with their mothersinlaw. They havent. Theyre still there. Were simply seeing a level of frugality thats not unprecedented though because we saw these levels right after the great depression. Theres still plenty of renting going on. Thats what you do when youre afraid to buy. A shortage of new homes coupled with the Hedge Fund Buyers is going to drive up housing prices for many people. Still its too healthy for me to buy that entire argument. Its the cherry consumer. Has to be. Maybe the word from fannie and freddie that theyll make credit better im not sure. For staying thrifty it might not matter. I always look to the companies for help when im confused. We got an interesting Earnings Report for macys. The numbers were better than fine but i think a huge percentage of the bottom line comes from being a surveillance pier improper operator and they call that home spending this week. Still one more bit of data confirming that the lack of spending might be behind some of the low Interest Rates. Now, i am sure people will say, hold it cramer, people are spending like mad because were going to be making 16 million cars in this country and theyre all spoken for but i remy you need a car to get to work and thats a necessity. Do you know what you need in your home . The bonds are so low Interest Rates Interest Rates are so low that Interest Rates have come down so much that a recession just has to be around the corner. Why else would Interest Rates be so low . So we need to reorder our portfolios toward the more defensive and highest yielding stocks and thats what we saw today. The whole day. The main reason stocks for hammered. Particularly the financials but also the industrials. Interest rates low, must be a recession. I think that gloomy view is wrong. With the help of stress test, the book hell be signing at the Union Square Barnes and noble where im going after the show, i think were just headed to a much more thiftty puritanism which is a Younger Generation that hates conspicuous consumption. I think america has gone frugal since the near death experience from the new book. Thats why the declining Interest Rates dont mean were going to have an economic collapse. That and whats happening in europe. Take advantage of the discounts and stocks created by those bailing because they fear another recession. Its a false worry people. Its one that wont make you a dime and i think will cost you terrific opportunities. The new frugality is a terrible thing to waste. Particularly on low yielding bonds. Lets go to bob in my old home state of pennsylvania. Caller hey, a big pittsburgh booyah jim. I like that. Caller really enjoy your show. Thanks for all of your help. Wed like to buy pier 1 imports. What do you think . I think youre right. Hes built up his website and hes a bankable ceo. His stock has been dinged more than all the others. I think that pier 1 is at a level where i want to own it. Lets go to mark in wisconsin, please, mark. Caller jim, thank you for taking my call. My stock is Sand Ridge Energy Ticker Symbol sd. I was wondering what your thoughts were. Okay. This is a heavily speculative stock but its been going up over time. I like the last quarter. A lot of people expected when they got conditioned by the earlier part of the year when you had a good quarter and your little dollar stock explodes. Its doing well. Its going up incrementally. I like that. Id stay along it. Nick in georgia, please nick. Caller i had a question about rite aid. I was wondering if you thought their stock might be undervalued. I went to rite aid the other day and my picture is on the wall in the managers office. Hey, its kind of strange. Rite aid is terrific. Its an emerging story thats now a plain old earnings story. No longer turn around. Just earnings. Stock had such a big run its digesting the move. Al in florida, al. Well, maybe thats the new consumers that didnt stay on the line. Theres a new frugality in this nation and thats a terrible thing to waste. Take advantage of any discounts that come by those bailing because theyre worried about the bond market. Still ahead, national, nongmo, organic, zero transfat. Im busting through the buzz words to find out the healthy play to put food on the table and french fries and your favorite fragrance have one stock in common. Plus its been more than five years since they made the change for the big banks but are they any less toxic today . Stay with cramer. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. [ female announcer ] theres a gap out there. Thats keeping you from the healthcare you deserve. At humana, we believe if healthcare changes, if it becomes simpler. If frustration and paperwork decrease. If grandparents get to live at home instead of in a home. The gap begins to close. So lets simplify things. Lets close the gap between people and care. Stress test by former secretary treasurer and unsung savior of capitalism. You may never want to buy a bank stock again. That may be my chief stock take away from reading this newly indispensable book about the they were so interval to the near collapse in the united states. Not just the Financial System but the whole country. If youre as enthralled with the turmoil of that period as i am seeking what went wrong, who went wrong, what was done to stem the collapse and what could have been done better than the stress test will be your page turner bedside reading. Theyre all here. Aig, washington mutual, Merrill Lynch, but stark reality, a cot log. The behind the scenes on near death of each is detailed and makes me feel hes a total honest broker. Many people dont feel that. I dont care. Hes the first to admit he lacks a dramatic hero villain flair. They almost all seem to be drawn to the financial industry like flies to honey. Family show. Its impossible to imagine a group of trucking companies, health care professionals, any industry performing so horrendously as bank bosses. They are at times laughably villainous. Like when one of the richest men in the world at that point running Merrill Lynch requires an incredibly tense media. Now whether it will be curtailed by the Governments Program to save the world, good grief. He didnt write the book as an investors guide to banks but you can extrapolate from the rich composite to populate the text. This has to be one of the most Cautionary Tales i have ever read. And for and after the crises why the bank stocks received such a low evaluation in our market these days. First going to the great recession, we now know that the Financial Statements from the financials, well, both bank and not bank alike, they were fiction. Everything you saw on paper was pretty much a lie. You simply couldnt look at anything publicly issued by these banks and make a legitimate judgment about what they owned, what exposure they had or what they were. If you thought you were clueless but the regulars had a handle on it, going into the melt down tim didnt know either. Whose fault is that . Unanswered by the book but it didnt hurt that some served on the board of the new york fed at the time. Conflict . Did check himself out. Second coming out of the great recession, we know the actions of the bankers were so bad that even though many of them belonged in handcuffs, the government had no choice but to put the whole system in handcuffs. After reading this book, i now know that banks are far more straight jacketed than they are. A meaningful return for you the shareholder on anything other than fees will be forgone for the foreseeable. Like the j. P. Morgan or the bank of america bond portfolio. The demons of the past haunt the banks for more than we realize and when you read stress test you might want to thank him for recognizing that someone this h to cheek the greed or at least grade it or flaunt the institutions that dont get that the world has changed. The whole sector is held back thanks to thor e er rrors of th players. Coming up. Gluten free food. You heard about glutenfree diets. Is this fad just a flash in the pan . Tonight cramer talks with one of the biggest brand bess hind the craze to see if you can make bread. Were moving our company to new york state. The numbers are impressive. Over 400,000 new private sector jobs. Making new york state number two in the nation in new private sector job creation. With 10 Regional Development strategies to fit your business needs. And now its even better because theyve introduced startup new york. With the state creating dozens of taxfree zones where businesses pay no taxes for ten years. Become the next business to discover the new new york. [ male announcer ] see if your business qualifies. Become the next business to discover the new new york. Carstheyre why we innovate. Theyre who we protect. Theyre why we make life less complicated. Its about people. We are volvo of sweden. You know were big believers in the idea of healthy eating. Not always doing it for ourselves but no one ever got hurt by a good diet or investing in it. Thats why were a backer of natural or organic food makers but do you know whats the Fastest Growing packaged food out there . Glutenfree. Its found in foods made from processed wheat. Millions of people cant seat the stuff without getting sick. If you suffered from the disease and 3 Million People have it, then eating gluten can be painful. In the last few years its gone from people with a specific disease to a broad trend becoming popular with the Wider Population and when it comes to glutenfree food, theres bolder brands. The maker of glutenfree foods. We like the plantbased business from white wave and heart healthy diets. Boulder brands formally known as smart balance had an incredible run from 5 in change to over 18. But in the last Quarter Sales werent as strong as analysts may have been looking for. And its fallen down to 13 in change. Lets check with the chairman and ceo to see what he has to say about his company and its prospects. Welcome to mad money. Thank you, jim. Thank you for coming on the show. I want you to walk us through the categories that you have because the Companies Really should have split its split between the smart balance side which isnt growing that fast and the other side which is growing by laeaps and bounds. We have six brands. It can go into almost every category. Smart balance was more con ve s conventional and then we have the combination, the powerful force in the glutenfree space. Our new pure and simple play in frozen and then we just recently launched this level product which is a play for diabetics going into distribution now. Some of it is like where you have this kind of slow growth but steady business and then you have a fast growing business. Its also like dean foods with slow growth and then also white wave which is fast. Do both companies belong under the same roof . Smart balance has been a great legacy brand for us. It came out before anybody knew what transfats were and we recented converted it to nongmo. I saw that. Its going to be interesting to see how that plays out for the brand. Its a great Cash Generator and enabled us to put together an infrastructure and have relationships with retailers. But now as we come in, we have the credibility with retailers to talk about these other trends. Lets talk about the last quarter. It seemed like you got hit by a commodity that people are getting hurt. We saw wholesale produce this number was really bad today. This time it was egg whites. Yeah, i mean, its ironic because what happened is the quick serve restaurants are going to healthier menu items. They start offering the breakfast sandwiches with egg whites and we have a lot of egg whites in our glutenfree Bakery Products so historically our Gross Margins have been in the low 40s. But we think, we feel pretty confident its going to bounce back to the 40s. This is kind of an air pocket. Okay. Now weve had and i know you watch the show, weve had him on a number of times. The nongmo category, where youre moving into here, not as much but here with eval theyve gotten much more competitive. A lot of people want in. Is that part of the gross margin problem . No, this margin issue is really this one commodity ingredient but for white wave a Great Company and folks like ourselves the move to organic and Natural Products is going mainstream in a major way. Its an incredible Tipping Point. Talk about that. Natural and organic celiac if im not drawn to gluten, would i say i dont want gluten in my diet . Everybody tries and finds out. If you go on a glutenfree diet for two weeks youll find out if it makes a difference for you. We have 1. 8 million friends that we contact and the stories are incredible. People knew that they werent feeling great. But they didnt know and their doctors didnt send them to a nutritionist. Thats why theres such a powerful connection with the brand because its a selfdiscovered solution. So they really do

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