Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140512 : comparemela.com

CNBC Mad Money May 12, 2014

Of massive overvaluation masks what can only be described as the wholesale destruction of the bubbles already right before our eyes. In fact, today was the first day in ages that the beaten down bubbles didnt get stomped on. Dow climbing 112 points and the nasdaq, the home of the deflated bubble, skyrocketing 1. 77 . After a prolonged period of underperformance when the bubbles were being popped. We got to wade into this bubble debate. Lets first talk about the prevailing. Hardly a day goes by where we dont hear criticism about the inflating bubbles of technology and biotech. Were told that companies are being valued at outrageous levels not unlike the year 2000. And it all has to end in tiers for every stock as it did back then. Theres only one tiny problem. The bubble has been popping for months maybe the critics havent noticed. Today was a reprieve from the relentless deflation and even though it will hasten another round of bubble talk the stocks went up the facts dont fit the bubble story. What is the story here . First, were constantly confusing year 2000 with now. Its silly. While we have had some ridiculous overvaluation going on in the internet and cloud related stocks as well as biotechs you to remember more than 300 companies that came public during the dotcom era failed. They failed because their businesses werent predicated on earnings or even sales. But on eyeballs. Unique viewers and concepts. Most had no real cash flow. The difference today is palpable. You may hate work day, concur technologies or cornerstone on demand, all of which roared today, so be my guest and sell them tomorrow. I dont care. You may think that salesforce. Com and yelp are re pullsive on the system. You can even be rallying against facebook and google. The idea the stocks are somehow updated versions of the failure of 2000 smacks more of fiction than fact. The companys whose stocks have been pummeled of late are largely cash flow positive. Its theyre spending like theres no tomorrow. They want to take advantage of the opportunity. So they cant be valued on earnings. Im not crazy about what theyre doing but at least understand theyre making money. That was perfectly fine for years, ever since the great recession. When we focused on revenues and revenue growth. Because earnings were seemingly made up by the smoke and mirrors of layoffs and buybacks based on stagnant sales. Ever since revenues started growing for much of the s p 500, and the valuations for the high flyers became stretched beyond all reason, weve seen the dramatic reversal with money flowing from high growth to l growth, little value and no dividend, high value, big dividend, abetted by low Interest Rates which makes the dividend look even better. To pull that money out of the high multiple stocks with little grounding toward the traditionally valued stocks is an exact replicate repeat of what happened when the nasdaq peaked in 2000 and cash poured into the blue chips in the s p 500. You just cant tell by looking at the s p itself like the chart, because it, too, was riddled with overvalued techs including microsoft which was valued at 476 billion, its now at 330 billion, cisco, 448 billion then, 120 billion now, and intel 27 billion then, 131 billion now and oracle 260 billion then and 187 billion now. Can you believe it, 14 years ago, after all the wealth the companies created and they are still not where they were. Those four names plus General Electric accounted for 17 of the s p 500 and their stocks pretty much all blew up at the same time causing the s p to decline, gave the appearance of a broad retreat, when, in fact, it was anything but. In short, during the dotcom collapse the damage really was cordoned to the high flying tech stocks but the high flying tech stocks freedom nated. Not anymore. Look at whats happened this time around. Many of the growth Money Managers were conditioned to buying stock or at least paying up for stock when these companies, the high flyers, beat on the top line and raised revenue guidance. Frankly almost pavlovian. This was a recipe for higher stock prices over and over again until salesforce. Com in the last week of february beat and raised as everybody wanted and got crushed and that began the routh thats gone on. Amazon the great survivor of 2000 has been rallying with that same revenue increase playbook. And increase in sales means an increase in market cap. But that, too, waned along with sales force. Ever since we lost those two umbrellas, many of which of the companies ive mentioned copied those two companies its been hard to figure out what to pay for these names out there most of which are, indeed, inferior to sales force and amazon which are very good companies. Now you later on the relentless Insider Selling in the group along with the remarkable proliferation of ipos in the same areas and you end up with a glut of hard to value, high Growth Stocks. At the same time we add added developing shortage of high quality, easy to value stocks shrinking in floats for years with huge buybacks and thats what happened when the bubble popped. Now this has been an excruciatingly painful process, because bart and parcel with the excess of growth to value, weve seen the wholesale abandonment of stocks aside from traditional p e or price to earnings ratio. The market has lost tolerance for high priced to sales ratios. Its demanding earnings and wants reasonable levels of valuation on those earnings and not satisfied with good cash flow. So take shutter stock, the Excellent Company we featured on fridays show that matches buyers and sellers of images via the internet, thats a terrific business. Its been growing in astounding 40 clip. This new market says, who cares to that growth. It means nothing. So then the market defaults to earnings per share. Shutter stock could earn 1 this year. That would be pretty great. Right now trades at 67, down from 103. Thats a big decline. Probably a compelling discount to some but at the end of the day it sells at 67 times earnings. A sky high multiple without any hope of a dividend or buyback in sight. With the average stock selling for 17 times earnings in the s p 500, the market really has no idea what to do with shutter stock frankly. When it doesnt know what to do with the stock, that stock gets sold down and down and then down again. You can put every high flyer through this same ringer. The software as a service stock that traded well last year with the overvalued ones that came public this year theyre a total conundrum. Who knows what to pay for them if we dont care about revenue growth. The only answer is lower. The biotechs with no earnings, lower. The security and ecommerce plays, lower. The problem with all the bubble callers is that these stocks have already been downright radioactive for two months and going lower lower and lower. If anything we saw today they were due for a bounce. Some of them have come down so much they deserve a look see on a takeover basis. And because the short sellers who have leaned against them are at least taking some profits, look, if russia acts up, china breaks down or if Interest Rate goss lower, these moves will be repealed quickly. We still havent figured out a way to value the stocks. Ultimately the bubble bursts months ago and the decline has gone a little too far, at least in the straight line, because it had begun to knock down the valuation of stocks with genuine and rapid earnings growth. Earnings growth. Simply because theyre in the same zone of influence. For example, consider google. Google sells at a discount to the average stock 2015 earnings. Its next year, people. Does that make any sense some its growing like crazy. How about this one . Facebook is at a discount to the average stock on 2016 numbers. You know what, thats ridiculous. Its ridiculous given the strong and saleable motes they have developed over the years. Even if alibaba came public i wouldnt sell facebook. I would buy it. Doesnt mean the stocks with no hope of earnings in the foreseeable future or absurdly high valuations dont have further to fall after this momentary reprieve. The issue, though, is not that theres a bubble. Its that there was a bubble. Was. And were now simply trying to figure out what to pay for the stocks postbubble but not sure what levels to use. The bubble talk at this point it now ob few skates genuine opportunity among stocks that do have good earnings and high growth. It also scares off so many people from solid stocks that arent overvalued at all. But for the rest, lets just say you should use any prolonged bounce to sell. Because we havent reached a way to value them on traditional earnings terms and until then, theyre in limbo which is no place to be. Chandler in georgia, chandler. Caller hi, jim. I just want to call and get your stocks on the a and b and a good value around 4 considering they have the new partnership with arm holdings . I am in the end a brees of breed guy and i have been burned so many times by amd i cant go there. I cannot praise it. As soon as i do what will happen theyll preannounce a worse than expected quarter and people will say jim, why didnt you do homework amd. I am not going to recommend the stock. Hey, guys, i have news for you, any market bubble we were in, its been popping for months. Cant you hear it . Now were just trying to figure out what to pay for the stocks postbubble and that might take some time. Still ahead going on vacation this summer . You may want to book more than a room at your Favorite Hotel chain. Burritos or big macks . Not talking dinner, tooed to fatten your portfolio. Im serving up the best stock. Mad money will be right back. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter v a question, tweet cramer, madtweets, send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Missin something . Head to madmoney cnbc. Com. Fame, makes a man take things over fame, lets him loose, hard to swallow fame, puts you there where things are hollow the evolution of luxury continues. The next generation 2015 escalade. Fame despite all of the turmoil lately theres still bull markets out there. Right now i think we have a stealth bull in the hotel stocks. Why . First of all n developed markets like the United States there are few new hotels being built, at least by historical standards. Travel has been on the rebound for years. So the industry has limited supply coupled with increased demand and basic economics 101 tells us that leads to higher prices which is whats happening. The key metric in the lodging business is revenue per available room or rev par. Revenue per available room which is one part pricing and one part occupancy all these terms are in get rich carefully. Rev par growth in the u. S. Looks to be accelerated and when that happens the hotels go higher. The whole group is looking good here. But that begs the question, which one should you own . In order to help you pick winners were ranking the four hotel stocks you hear about all the time on cnbc, starwood, marriott, hilton and hyatt. Whos number one . My Favorite Company and my favorite stock in the industry is Starwood Hotels and resorts. The aptly tickered hot. Starwood manages 1200 hotels under the sheraton, weston, st. Regis, w, four points and Meridian Brands among others. The thing i adore about this company is that under the leadership of the ceo who has been on the show many times, starwood has pioneered whats known as the asset light business model. What does that mean . Basically starwood recognizes its true expertise lies in Running Hotels not owning real estate. Why the company runs 1200 hotels they only own or lease the ground under about 50, the rest they manage without owning the property or farm out as franchises. This is a terrific way for a Hotel Company to grow its business rapidly without having to spend a fortune on real estate development. Starwood gets half their business from overseas with a lot of emerging markets exposure. At the moment many of the emerging markets in asia are looking ugly, they looked great at the time, however ive bet against starwood based on a chinese slow down and that was a mistake. They will do it again. Thats not all. Starwood is remarkably shareholder friendly. The company has a base dividend of 1. 40 per share and that only yields 1. 8 . Back in february they announced a 2. 60 special dividend, we love special dividends on mad money, to be paid out in four installments over the course of the year. You missed the first one. Theres three more to go which means at least for the next seven months starwood has a 5 yield. Also the issue of the buyback. These guys have been pretty good about repurchasing shares, repurchasing aggressively. The company didnt spend a single penny buying back stock in the first quarter. I dont know if management wants to wait for a lower price or what. But i think the cessation of the buyback is the reason the stock has done nothing year to date. Heres the good news. Starwood has 650 million left in its repurchase authorization equal to 4 of the market gap. If they start buying again i think that could buy buy buy. Ignite the stock. Starwood is not cheap. Sells for 28 times earnings. Has the cleanest Balance Sheet and best management in the industry and with the special dividend makes it a 5 yield for the rest of the year. The company is paying you to wait for the buyback to resume. Whats the second best hotel stock . Counterintuitive. I think that marriott a truly fabulous operator is the second best Hotel Company. But the trouble with being a fabulous operator is that you dont have much room to improve. And the stock market loves improvement. Is which is why im ranking hilton as my second Favorite Hotel stock because theres so much more hilton can do to make itself a better operator with a stronger Balance Sheet even though it is an inferior company to marriott. Hilton is the largest lodging company with over 4100 hotels and time shares, 91 countries. Hilton, wall dorf, conrad, doubletree, hilton garden in and hampton brands. Company taken private back in 2007. Then it became public last december 20 a share. This is a different hilton than the company that was taken private. It now has the Largest Development pipeline in the industry. 60 of which is overseas. And crucially these news projects are mostly being financed by third party investors. I like that. Hilton wants to move toward a capital light fee base model, kind of reminds me of starwood. This management and licensing side of things accounts for half of hiltons business. Thats good. Its consistent. What i like most about hilton, is that its a better Balance Sheet story and i always like those. Shortly before becoming public hilton completed a 13 billion refinancing of its capital structure. So they now have a no big near term Debt Maturity that was killing us and paying a much lower Interest Rate courtesy of the federal reserves Bond Buying Program and unnaturally low rates that we have anyway. Plus they raised 1. 24 billion from the ipo they did and used the bulk to pay down debt. Management has been getting their bonds to Investment Grade status which would allow hilton to save money on interest. The thing about an improving Balance Sheet the things go to the bottom line and to you shareholder. Thats a major reason why hilton blew away the numbers when reported last friday. The company had terrific 6. 6 growth in its revenue per available room market didnt go crazy for it. I think thats wrong. Next up in third place we have marriott which has 3900 properties under the many marriott and ritzcarlton brands. This stock has been jugging higher all year. One of the reasons im not crazy, its had such a big move. Company extremely well run. Following the excellent asset light model business as starwood. It was a terrific beaten raise. On top of that it generates a ton of cash, cash used to buyback stock. Year to date the companys already are we in may repurchased 9 million shares for 467 million equal to 4. 6 of the stock. They got over 30 million shares left in the buyback authorization which at these prices equal to 10 of marriotts market cap. By the way thats what everyone was hoping for from starwood. Like i told you marriott is a Better Company than hilton. If you believe as i do that hilton can keep improving hilton could be the stock with more upside. Although i wont hold it against you for marriotts cleaner Balance Sheet and epic buyback. Hyatt reported Strong Quarter at the end of april but remember we have a bull market in lodging here. Hyatt is the smallest of the bunch, doesnt have a huge buyback like marriott or the c student becoming a b student like hilton and a little expensive, 53 times earnings. Heres the bottom line. Dont ignore the stealth bull market in the hotel business. Starwoods my favorite with that special dividend giving it a 5 yield for the rest of the year. Hilton has upside as the Company Improves itself and marriott well run with a giant buyback. I could endorse any of the three, please, though, lets skip hyatt and if starwood starts buying back its shares the stock could take on ten points in a heartbeat stay with cramer. Coming up burritos versus burgers. The fast growing chipotle and the established icon mcdonalds. Youve probably eaten at both but which stock should you be taking a bite of now . The one cramer is ordering up might surprise you. And later eye on the aisles. The biggest winner on wall street today was right under your nose at the local grosser. Critical foods. The next money maker may be hiding in the supermarket. Stay tuned. Were moving our company to new york state. The numbers are impressive. Over 400,000 new private sector jobs. 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