Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140401 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140401

And the nasdaq vaulted up 1. 64 . Could the market be this stupid . And forgetful . You bet it is. The market encompasses Money Managers who have their open own motivations and and these guys can be as fickle as all get out. Buy buy buy buy, sell sell sell sell. Sometimes that seems valueless at the end of the quarter and sometimes it seems ridiculous. But let me explain to you what is liked yesterday can be hated today. And what is liked what is liked today was hated yesterday. Literally overnight. Im not kidding. Because the buyers dont mind returning to shunned stocks now that the last grading period is over. And a new one has begun. I know this sounds ridiculous, okay. When i first heard it, i thought it was ridiculous. I was working a at brokerage house, but i always want to keep in front of you the rules of the game. The way Money Managers think. Because if you know how they think, then youll be able to make more money when they pull their shenanigans as they have in the last 48 hours. Remember i was a money manager for 20 years. I saw firsthand how this stuff works. See, a key principle of most managers who have to show their holdings to investors in the public they never want to be out of step with the times. As i said over and over again, the First Quarter amounted to a rotation out of last years hottest leaders. The biotechs and the expensive tech stocks and into the old time pharmas, the soft goods names. The industrials and the lower multiple value tech stocks. These fashion conscious Money Managers didnt want to get caught wearing the wrong stocks to the reporting party. So last quarter, many of the markets leaders from the year before, you know what happened to them . They were taken out and shot despite excellent quarters and lots of good news. At the same time, there was an endless progression higher buy buy buy buy in the industrials as the group think of the Money Managers about a turn in the Global Economy led to relentless buying in stocks like caterpillar or ingersollrand. Alcoa. Have you seen the run that alcoa had that became loved or as we see when they get the quarterly reports in few weeks in some cases overloved. Boo we saw the same threemonth love affair with the value tech stocks. Intel, microsoft, oracle, sea gate. Western digital. Those could not be contained. Just Old Fashioned yesteryear fact tick that got dusted off because it got too cheap versus the newer, hotter stocks that had been leaders. Chiefly those that embraced mobile, social and the cloud. All of which were clubbed into submission by the end of the quarter, even though i promised you theyd snap back. Sales force. Com had become a whipping boy. I couldnt believe how much the thing had gotten hit and hit and hit. But you know what . Sales force was no different than google. Facebook. You could barely look at those names by the end of the quarter. It was too painful. And if you did, you were rubber necking rex on the stock market highway. Yesterday today, they came roaring back as if they never fell out of favor at all. In the mean time, stocks like eli lilly and merck, thought to be left for dead in the pharma space were higher in First Quarter and stocks like celgene languished. Today, merck and gilead rallied. You have to understand the vicious rotation made opening the stocks too difficult until today. No hedge fund or mutual fund wants to show they want to own anything going out of style in the wall street fashion show. They can imagine the investors peering through them and saying, you mean you held on to that blankey blank yelp and road it down from 179, what kind of idiot are you . Or you kept facebook after that moronically stupid whats app buy, did you go to college to get stupid . But heres the thing. Now its a whole new quarter and these funds that are drawn to Growth Stocks can revert to favored names because they dont need to show their position thor three more months. Even better, they have come down to levels that might make sense. On a valuation basis for entry points versus the saw Growth Stocks that some have loaded up on. I want to give you a classic example. I know you probably think facebook is a bunch of idiots these days. Theyre throwing money at stuff we dont want. Even after throwing all that money can earn as much as 2. 50 in 2016. Remember, they care about the out years. That means the stock is trading at 24 times earnings. 24 . I mean, at a time when the average stock is selling 17 and a quarter, despite having a growth rate thats fraction of facebook. 17. 25 is the multiple for the average stock, how can that be . But facebook has came down so much. No wonder it came roaring back 4 today. Its not done going higher. My Charitable Trust thinks its a good name. Consider the two names i mentioned celgene and gilead. Celgene had a setback in the United Kingdom for one of the key drugs and that helped to push the stock down over the course of the last quarter. One of the worst performers in the s p 500. Meanwhile, all thats happened is the earnings estimates have gone higher. Whats it selling at . We have to do that alyes bray thing . Its cheaper than merck or pfizer. And it goes up 5 in a day. 5 . Today. How about gilead . Lately theres some negative research about the new hepatitis c drug. I can earn 7 a share two years from now. During the Spring Cleaning where they dumped everything it was sold down to 68 bucks thats selling for less than 10 times earnings. And the disparity became ridiculous, today it burst up 4 . Im not saying that the grand growth selloff cant return. Especially with the flurry of the initial Public Offerings in the works. However if they have been in their bunkers for the last month should begin to emerge tomorrow morning at 6 00 a. M. Now that First Quarter selling is over, thats the way its always played. We saw an Excellent Firm today, r. W. Baird coming out, adding celgene to the focus list. It wouldnt surprise if me Goldman Sachs taking celgene off the buy list at a much higher level comes out a rndz everses that call. And reverses that call. Its more likely than blankfein being on jimmy fallon tonight. Happy fool. Those who havent spoken up in gileads by the way, that was goldmans joke i stole it on twitter. The facebook clock which has been remarkably silent after the Virtual Reality mass acquisition, that virtually no one can figure out and does seem as dumb as wood, no offense to warehouser, will most likely feel emboldened to praise the company. It is only natural that those who liked yelp and work day and concur and sales force. Com will also come out from under the desk where they have been hiding for weeks. Boy, it must be smelly down there. I bet every one of these gets pushed in the research minis tomorrow. Does any of this make sense . Not at all if youre an individual investor, but remember, no one sees what you home gamers are up to. Unlike Money Managers you can control your own money without worrying your clients will take it away from for sticking with that boneheaded facebook. They dont have the luxury. Its another straight jacket that keeps them from doing as well as they like. The bottom line as i always say, you can beat the pros at their open game, as long as you have conviction and do your homework. You can play it by your own rationale rules to get rich carefully. Hem funds have to play hedge funds have to play by rules to gather assets aggressively and this can conflict, actually conflict, with making money in the market. And at the end of a quarter, and the beginning of a new one, like we just had those two missions couldnt be more at odds. How about arthur in california, please. Arthur . Booyah, jim. First of all, just wanted to say i love your show. And i wanted to thank you for taking my call today. Thank you. I was having an excess tential crisis between 2 30 and 3 00. I want to talk about rocket fuel, despite it being in the high 50s and 60s, what are your thoughts . I have to tell you, this is its mind numbing how difficult this stock is. And i have to tell you, i am we had them on theyre very bright guys but the advertising on the web is one of the situations where its too hard to gain the quarter. I dont know how theyll do. They sure did talk a big game. I do like them. But its too hard for this guy. After what i saw the destruction i saw this last quarter, let it bounce. But then let it go. Daniel in virginia. Daniel . Caller hi, jim. How are you, daniel . Caller im doing well. Well, i had virginia in my bracket. So im like nowhere. I dont want to blame you. Its not your fault. Go ahead. Its my stage managers fault. Caller my question is regarding office depot of the merger with officemax. In your opinion, what is their long term outlook . Also i understand staples have made changes such as closing several stores. So how do you feel that my long term outlook is similar to what mr. T said to rocky. Pain thats right. I dont like office depot. Anyway, your rules are not their rules but you can outsmart them if you simply understand them and do your homework. Now, you have to understand them. Thats the only way that you can profit from their lunacy. Mad money will be right back. Coming up bubbling up . As the market cracks another alltime high, many wonder if a bubble is about to burst. Cramer uses his 30 years of Market Experience to help find the answer. And later, profits in the pipes . The American Energy revolution is in full swing. The transporting has led to the national debate. Tonight, cramer gets the latest on the push when he talks with the ceo of enbridge. All coming up on mad money. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Aflac. Aflac, aflac, aflac [ both sigh ] ugh you told me he was good, dude. Yeah he stinks at golf. But he was great at getting my claim paid fast. How fast . Mine got paid in 4 days. Wow. Thats awesome. Is that legal . Big fat no. [ male announcer ] find out how fast aflac can pay you at aflac. Com. Its bubble, isnt it, jim . Thats the question i get the most as i wind up the bookstore which ends tonight at barnes noble in white plains after the show. Of course theyre telling you its a bubble, jim. Laying out on the line, lecturing you even. They do it with a grin. I can understand where theyre coming from, because the s p 500 hundred has come back. And heres the problem with the bubble call on the market. This last quarter saw the slaughter of the onetime favorites that i think its fanciful to say we have a bubble on our hands. W4e7 the leader when the leaders in past quarters where tyson foods, how can we print off that . A bubble. When celgene and gilead sell at ten times 2016 earnings how the heck does that constitute a bubble . At the end of the day i think it comes down to the individual stocks. Has there been a bubble in the 3d printing stocks . I think there was a bubble. But trust me, a bubble in 3d systems the leader of the group plummets from 97 to 58 as in the past quarter. Has there been a bubble in some of the biotech stocks that traded Single Digits . Sure, but these two got popped. Yeah. They gave up the ghost in a lot of the part of the quarter. Same with the cloud stocks. Thanks to the oversupply and a market that market that stopped paying up for growth. Even tesla, amazon, netflix. Netflix they have fallen i mean, down 50. Fell 100 points from the high. 100 points. If anything, these sound like pop the bubbles to me. So what do people get when they tell me its a budge . I think the sub next is, i miss the moon. Thats right. It was all phony anyway. Or you and your people anybody who buys my people, its one of my peeps. You and your peeps have made a lot of money. But your peeps are all going to give it back. Is that too harsh . I dont think so. Because the simple truth is that these kinds of stocks that made you a lot of money last year, but this year the gains have been in stocks like caterpillar, oracle, stocks that are simple. Theyre cheap. Theyre dirt cheap. If they get it right and theres a sense they might in 2014, they will go even higher. As i finish this bookstore where i have met thousands of people, i mean, literally thousands of people, really hurt my hand, im struck by how many of those who bought the book are simply trying to exploit the next opportunity in finding stocks they can put away for their kids. There have been plenty of bubble questions and a ton of when is apple going to move . You dont buy the book to confirm the bubble you know exists and is guaranteed to destroy your nest egg. I think its a shame that the pronouncement of a bubble by those left behind is stated with such a level of certainty. It makes me think that its the bubble callers who are the most unrealistic and the most fanciful. And yes, the least rigorous. Not the buyers. Who will continue to make moe mee in the market while those who are supposed to be older and wiser sit on the sidelines, cat calling and blowing bubbles all the darn way. Thomas in ohio. Thomas. Caller hello, jim. Thomas. Caller jim, can you hear me . Yeah. I got you. Its cloudy here. Caller drillers have been beaten down lately. What do you think of c drill in particular . Everybody wants the darn sea drill. The yield is too high. I like the drillers. I was on a rig not too long ago and enskow has got a safe one. I wish i could say, yes, sea drill, its definitely safe. I didnt want to say that. Im sorry to burst your bubble but i wouldnt say we are in one. Dont be fooled and stop sitting on the sidelines already. Will you . Stay with cramer. Coming up is the bull back . The market hit a fresh alltime high today. But can it continue to reach new heights . Or is the bull run done . Cramer reveals startling new data thats critical to forming your next move. So i c an reach ally bank 24 7, but there are no branches . 24 7. Im sorry, im just really reluctant to try new things. Really . Whats wrong with trying new things . Look mommys new vacuum cat screech you feel that in your muscles . I do. Drink water. Its a long story. 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Now that the roller coaster First Quarter has finally come to an end, time to take a step back and try to figure out where the major averages are headed. We want to approach this unemotionally with cold and mathematical precision. Thats why tonight were going off the charts with the help of carolyn broaden, a terrific technician who runs the website fibonacci queen. Com. To get a better sense of the s p 500 and the nasdaq 100. I dont like to rely on the charts alone, but as i tell you in get rich carefully when you combine it with the fundamental homework im telling you to do, i think it makes you a better investor. Lets start with the big picture. Take a look at this super long term monthly chart of the s p. Broaden thinks that weve got a bullish pattern going here, however, shes starting to see signs that make her want to throw down a yellow caution flag. Shes not saying were about to fall off a cliff, but there are a number of things that make her want to be more careful. First of all, whenever we highlight the charts, we talk a lot about resistance levels. Prices that represent a ceiling for a given stock or an index. But remember your algebra, a graph has two axis and price is only one of them. The thing thats really neat about broadens method is that she looks at the xaxis which measures time and she thinks the s p 500 could be facing serious timebased resistance. In other words it is possible that the bull which has been around since march of 2000 march of 2009, i mean, pretty clear, right . May finally have worn out the welcome. Listen to her logic. If you look at the rallies of the lows from 2002 to the peak in october of 2007, its lasted for 60 months. The run from 2009 to today is 61 excuse me, 61 months. This is what broaden calls symmetry. Youll often see moves that last for roughly the same amount of time with her work or roughly the same amount of points. Time and points. Those are her touch stones. Thats why shes concerned that the s p could be facing time based resistance. Its happened before. And its worth keeping in mind if the market stalls out in the near future, 60, 61. The second worrisome thing about the chart, a bit of a high quality problem but the s p has met broadens longterm upside target which we have discussed so many times here. She always said that this market was going to get to 1823. Even in the darkest hours. How good is that call . The s p is more than 60 points above the price target which she arrived with the fibonacci price targets. 23. 6 , 38. 2 . 50 . 61. 8 . And 100 . She applies the ratios to past swings and uses the results to predict where were headed. So now that the s p is well above her longterm target whats next . Well, she says its possible that the rally could continue in which case her next upside target is 2138. That would be a good move. However n the s p keeps stalling out at the same levels and cant trade much higher from here, then broaden believes well be vulnerable to a deeper decline than we have seen in a long time. I dont know, she made me quite concerned. Check out the s ps weekly chart. She points out we have a big problem here. Theres a wide ceiling of resistance running from you can see it 1881 to 1920. And so far the s p has not been able to jump above this hurdle. Broaden notes there are a whole host of important fibonacci levels in this zone. Which together constitute a powerful ceiling and thats containing the rally. And if the s p c

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