Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140204 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140204

Witness the dow plunging 326 points, s p plummeting 2. 28 , nasdaq nosediving. Weve got to tick down the reasons for the decline so youre aware and can be ready for the next leg. First, people are afraid of a second weak employment number in a row when we get the nonfarm payroll number on friday. You know what, they should be afraid. All right . Should be concerned. The research from get rich carefully shows that one lousy employment number can be explained away, but two . No. Thats when people talk about a slowdown in the economy, whether or not you think its true or false. It doesnt matter. The market asterisks nothing. It takes stocks right to the wood shed. Second reason for the decline, the recession stocks, the foods, the drugs, the staples. Theyre acting like its the end of the world, or at least the end of the developed world. The declines in these stocks are breathtaking. When the Global Economy slows, these stocks are supposed to go higher, but they arent. Maybe the emerging markets arent strong enough. People are getting really nervous that the safe havens are no longer safe. Even with treasuries rising in price and the yield going down. It is a quandary. The only stocks that are rallying are the ones without any sense of value. Twitter is still on fire. Facebook galloped higher this morning before declining in the afternoon. But its pulling in huge amounts of highgrowth momentum money. Fourth explanation, retail sales are monstrously horrible. I can count on one hand the number of companies doing well in this sector and most are just hoping for mediocrity. The weather is so bad that you have to take retail with a grain of salt, but this isnt typical action, people. Many are totally thrown off by where all the shoppers have gone. First, we thought the consumers gravitated from soft goods, clothes to hard goods. Then we thought perhaps everyone had gone online, right until we got that less than superb number from amazon. Plus, all through this period, weve had the reverberation of starbucks Ceo Howard Schultz admonition that mall shopping might be a thing of the past. Its not usual to hear such declarations, and everything in the mall, including starbucks, even as its hardly a mall retailer, just keeps getting hit. You see target today . The awfulness of the numbers for the big discounters like a target, walmart, sears, takes your breath away. The lone bright spot, chipotle well hear from tonight. Fifth, aerospace had been a major linchpin of growth. But ever since boeing reported, this group is giving up the ghost. Even though theres no evidence of a slowdown. I really think this group is buyable, particularly because of the Strong Airline numbers, but i feel im totally alone in thinking that. Youve got to stay tuned. Weve got to go off the charts to figure out how low boeing can go because its been gripped by the technicals. Sixth reason for the selloff, the government, it just pancaked us. Now theres no doubt about it, the government should be apologetic for what it did, just apologetic. Its good that washington basically declared war against business with the consumer well, lets say both consumer and business just crushed by the shut down, which turned out to be worse than we thought. Obamacare has seriously sapped the confidence of the business community. In the meantime, the pullback in food stamps, well that was poorly timed. Just awful. Now were hearing talk about the debt ceiling again and jack lew is worrying that the governments going to run out of money. Another showdown. I doubt washington cares. I know from my research for get rich carefully, its cost 5 . Lets not forget the draconian cutoff of extended Unemployment Benefits while the sequester cuts still remain in place. I dont know how our government could be more out of touch with its people. Seventh explanation, a new fed chief has come in precisely the moment we need the steadiest and most experienced hand. And the fed is no longer as good of a friend as it was. Janet yellen may be exceptional, but shes being tested hard now. Last summer the fed smoked short sellers. The tenyear treasury rates looked like they were about to soar through 3 , now looks like theyre headed for 2. 5 . Thats a slowdown. Its a slowdown. Eighth, the emerging markets in a severe downturn and become the saving grace of so many of our companies because they were growing as consequence of having more children. Right now, the turmoil is so severe, its bleeding to the more developed countries. Ninth reason for the selling, commodities are in collapse. Normally might be a good thing for inflation, now all its doing is suggesting chinas having not a downshift but a screeching halt. Theres no information thats the case. Theyve been saying there is no chinese slowdown. It doesnt matter. Chinas being written off right now. Even in a moment when europes coming back. Its just plain bad news for the stock market. Tenth explanation for the pain, the meaninglessness of earnings reports. Oh, boy, there have been so many good ones. But theyve meant nothing. Nothing at all. Person like me that does bottoms up research, its ridiculous. People have been crowding to the hyper growth stocks, but that came to an end today. No bargain hunters, just bargain haters. Meanwhile, the charts, theyre just plain hideous. Although, eventually well reach oversold territory, and they could get better. Remember what we saw on off the charts last week, we said it could be another leg down. Were in that leg. It means the downward sloping charts are in control. Ive been saying for a little bit now that i havent liked this market all that much and urge you to sell these meaningless up openings. Thats been right to do. Were carrying a very large cash position for actionalertplus. Com. I thought it was time to do a little picking later in the day. But you know what, for now, the sellers keep coming out of the woodwork at every level. In the end, though, i find it really hard to be too negative after weve come down during a period where i expected a pullback. The u. S. Remains strongest of nations, lots of opportunities to grow jobs if the government were to take them. Perhaps the repatriation of money held offshore to fix infrastructure. The poison in washington shouldnt defeat such common sense ideas. Let me give you your bottom line here. On this hideous day, it is time to hunker down, people. Come out of the fox hole to pick at your Favorite Companies and much lower than expected prices for companies with really sound earnings. Logical first step, same as 2009, go for the accidentally high yielders, which are coming in hot and heavy. Worked then, it will work now. Miatta in new york, please. Caller hi, jim, this is miatta, im calling about Molina Health care. And i want to know should i sell or hold on to it . Let me tell you my strategy on these. If you like what i like to do is buy the company that reported the best quarter in that industry. Well point reported a great quarter, the stock ticked at 81, that tells me that industry is good. Were going to hear from humana and aetna. It is not best of breed. Wellpoint is best of breed. Chris in pennsylvania, chris . Caller hi, jim, booyah from pennsylvania. Hey, how you doing, chris . Caller good. Good. We just got about another i dont know, maybe a foot of snow here. So i was calling to ask you a general opinion on the stock gnrc. Its been beaten up in the past couple of months. Generac needs big storms that shut down power. Because its a momentum stock. And we havent had that. Now, you had a foot of snow in philadelphia, i know its really, really tough. But you need to be a shutdown of the grid in order for people to go buy emergency generators, and that hasnt happened, so generac sales may not be equal to what the momentum people want. Can i go to alan in north carolina, please, alan . Caller hey, jim, this is allen, i wanted to talk to you about trena solar. I was wanting to know what you think about it. Which way you think it sold well, i happen to like first solar. I think they told a very good story. Nobody cares right now. Allen, you could have the greatest solar story in the world and it just doesnt matter right now. I got stocks that yield 3 , 4 , 5 that arent stopping to go down. But at least i think those bounce before trina. No way around it, today was brutal. I would come out of your fox hole a little bit and pick out your favorites. I would say also look at the accidentally high yielders because the declines been vociferous. Stick with me. Well figure it out. Boeings gone from first to worst as its poor performance lowers the altitude of the averages. Tonight, cramer checks the technicals to see whether this lagging leader could soon turn or if more turbulence is ahead. And later, recipe for success . Chipotle has been on a roll, doubling in a little more than the last year. But after a solid quarter, the Company Warns prices may be on the rise. Could this foil the burrito makers future . Plus, retail redefined . In the battle for brand power, disruptive startups like birch box are changing the way consumers get introduced to the products they love. Could this innovator give you a heads up on whats working ahead of the valentines day shopping spree . Find out when cramer goes off the tape. All coming up on mad money. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com, or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Theres nothing like being your own boss and my customers are really liking your flat rate shipping. Fedex one rate. Really makes my life easier. Maybe a promotion is in order. Good news. I got a new title. And a raise . Management couldnt make that happen. [ male announcer ] introducing fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. Heres a puzzler for you. Turbulent day, dow down 326 day. Wow, bloodbath day. We ask what the heck are we supposed to do with some of the great ones. What are we supposed to do with boeing . Ive stressed over and over again that this is one of my absolute Favorite Companies, with tremendous ceo, one of my bankable 21 from get rich carefully. One of the chief executives i believe you can trust. Last week boeing reported. Management gave cautious guidance, causing the stock to get pole axed. Boeing dropped 8 last week and is now down nearly 15 from its highs two weeks ago. The worst performer in the dow jones average. Pretty awful, right . It was the best performer last year. I think it was safe to say that boeing is in a situation where the performance of the stock has become separate from the performance of the underlying company. I believe in the company, but right now the company is not in control. Thats why tonight were going off the charts to figure out where boeings headed, because when the stock comes unglued from the fundamentals like this is right now, the charts could be incredibly useful, which is why ive devoted a whole chapter to technical analysis, which ive never done, in get rich carefully, which by the way im signing tomorrow night after a little bit of a speech at the union square, barnes and noble new york city right after the show. And when it comes to boeings charts, tim collins, a terrific technician as well as my colleague at realmoney. Com, does not like what he sees. You might think that after an 8 decline, the pain at boeing would be over, but collins thinks it can keep falling, falling for a few more weeks. In collins view, not all is necessarily lost for the bulls. On the one hand, the big gap down last week, boeing dropped from 137 down to 131 overnight, makes things difficult. Gaps are important to technicians. To collins, this says that 131 will now act as a powerful ceiling of resistance above the stock, way above way, way below where it was a couple of weeks ago. Thats not good. On the other hand, collins points out that boeing has this gap effect working for it. Not just against it. Because the stock had recently had not one but two gaps higher that have now become powerful floors of support underneath it. Back in october, boeing gapped up overnight from 122 to 125, and right now, that stock is testing that gap. Collins thinks this is a crucial area. How the stock reacts, how it responds to it will be extremely important at judging its trajectory. Consider the commodity channel down here, commodity channel index, thats the cci. This is a tool for technicians to use to tell whether a stock is overbought or oversold. Its come up or down too far too fast. Considered to be very oversold in this index, which is often a signal that the stock is due for a bounce. Right now, boeing at negative 252. People, thats insanely oversold. But if the stock keeps hanging around this 122 to 125 area, then collins says you need to be very careful about how the next few days play out. If boeing closes below 122, not if it drops below that level on an intraday basis and bounces, but if it actually gets a close underneath 122, then he believes the stock will be in a lot of trouble. To collins, a close below 122 triggers another breakdown, possibly sending boeing to 110, 111, 113, which is the next floor of support created by that gap i mentioned back in september. That would be a hideous decline and youd get hurt. Before you write collins off as being bearish, i want you to consider boeings weekly chart. Collins points out something very similar happened in august of 2011. Back then, boeing had a big initial drop, the stock entered oversold territory and the commodity channel index and then it bounced. First, there was a second leg lower. Yeah. So if boeing follows that same august 2011 trajectory, if it has the same percentage decline, stocks going to fall right to 112. Remember, its exactly the downside target collins sees on the daily chart if the stock breaks 122. Im doing this not to be a downer, im trying to be as realistic tonight as i can be. Another point, boeing is not particularly oversold on this weekly chart. In other words, this longer term picture of the stocks trajectory, it may not be ready to bounce. If it does decline to 112. 50, youve got a fabulous buying opportunity. It would push boeing right down to its 50week moving average. Okay . Which has served as an excellent floor for the stock several times over the past years. It got so far from that moving average. Thats like this is a depiction of so many of the stocks. Collins used this to illustrate how it caused the stock to lose the uptrend that began in january of last year. Theres really nothing chart wise standing in the way of boeing declining to that 111, 113 level. So right now, collins is saying you need to wait, wait and see for the next few days. If boeing closes below 122, he thinks its time to jump out the emergency exits, because we could be headed for a crash landing. Yeah, its not the way i think. But collins does hold out one hope here. If boeing can regain some altitude and trade back above 125 for a while, its possible the pain really could be over. For now, though, collins thinks that boeing stock is basically in technical no mans land. I think boeing has become a battleground between the fundamentals, which are excellent, as airlines around the world are flush and they want the more fuel efficient planes, especially the dreamliner and the technicals, which you see from the charts are pretty ugly. And thats the war, guys. Right here. And i could show you dozens and dozens and dozens of stocks with an identical chart. But heres the bottom line, if you believe in boeing, the company, like i do, then you might want to buy some here on the way down. But given collins interpretation of the charts, youve got to save some capital on the sidelines in case the stock gets slammed, like collins says could happen. Keep in mind, though, that when stocks go lower, yes, they get cheaper. And if the worst prediction comes true, then i think it would be an absolute steal at those levels. Dan in wisconsin, dan . Caller hey, we love you here in wisconsin. Ive got to tell you, i really like get rich carefully. Youre terrific. Thank you so much. Signing tomorrow night, Union Square Barnes and noble, 7 30. How can i help . Caller my stock is lockheed martin. Ive been looking at it for a while now. I was wondering, with this downturn in this market, if now might not be a Good Opportunity to pick a starting point and start buying a little bit. Well, you clearly have read the book, because you know thats exactly how id be thinking with lockheed martin. The quarter was fine. There was a little noise to it. The business is good. The stock yields 3. 6. Heres what you do, when that stock yields four, but not until then. Zachary in virginia . Caller hi, jim, how are you . All right. How are you, zach . Caller i saw today that Whole Foods Market was upgraded. And i saw you wrote an article a while ago, as well, i looked at your portfolio. What i want to ask you is this, do you think in a year from now that whole foods and costco will be up . Or whats your opinion on those two . Well, first, i appreciate that question more than any that ive heard tonight. Youre taking a yearlong perspective, i think whole foods will be up. Does that mean itll be up tomorrow . If i say the stocks going to be up tomorrow and its down, people are going to laugh. Thats not my game. I believe whole foods is a great longterm trend. The trend is to eat healthily. Same trend is behind chipotles strength. These trends arent going away, theyre getting stronger. I leg into some whole foods here. Today was dark and stormy, sometimes fundamentals and technicals just dont add up. Dont panic, but keep cash. You may need it. After the break, ill try to make you more money. Coming up chipotles out to make a big bang with its latest push. Why are my cows exploding all over the internet . Find out more just ahead. Thats progress. What can i say about chipotle . In a market where it feels like everythings getting killed, especially the retailers and restaurant names, chipotle just knocked it out of the park. Blowout quarter. Very similar to the seahawks, what they did to the broncos. How does chipotle do it . Put up a 9. 3 gain in same store sales when wall street was looking for a 6. 7 increase, almost all of that on higher traffic . Not only that, but while other companies saw things get worse and worse over the quarter, for chipotle, december was better than november. And the Conference Call management said january was also terrific. I think some of the strength has to do with the fact its become one of the standard bearers for that i talk about in get rich the huge Healthy Eating wave that i talk about in get rich carefully where people, especially younger people have become suspicious of the traditional food chain and only want to eat natural and organic. Chipotle understands this better than anyone which is why they created a whole darn Television Show called farmed and dangerous, abou

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