Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20121130 : comparemela.com

CNBC Mad Money November 30, 2012

With the averages hanging in there. Dow, nasdaq climbing, you couldnt help but see some stocks are actually at last transcending the gravitational pull of washington, apple, google and amazon. Just today gaining at the close of the market. Look, im as aggravated as you are about the lack of progress over the fiscal cliff. Is there progress . Is there no progress . Are the democrats giving . Have the democrats given . The only thing given that i know is the tablet. Thats what i want to spend a moment on while we bemoan the farce that is washington. One of the worst aspects of this era where we have to hang on every word of people who frankly arent actually trying to make us any money, and if anything want to take it from us, is there are companies doing amazing things, so tonight in the interests of some companies that are doing great things that can make you money, i want to celebrate the products of three terrific companies as well as their stocks, because after all this is mad money, not mad tablets. First one of my favorites is the column that amazes me, david pope, the New York Times writer who opines brilliantly in a cantmiss column about tech products. I love this guy. Todays product starts well enough, a segment of an nprcallin segment that he was going to offered opinions, but to quote, all six callers had the same question which tablet should i get . It was a terrific jumpingoff point. However, for me, this question was the perfect jumpingoff point not to figure out whats the best tablet, but to try to predict the future of Technology Stocks in general and the three standout players amazon, google and apple in particular. Lets start with a personal computer. Pogue was all set to talk about which ones were the best. While its only anecdotal, nobody wants a pc . That means, we got to stay away from hewlettpackard and dell. Cant bottomfish there. There was a time when we actually wanted to weigh in on which computer was the best. Now theyre just plain irrelevant. That means the stocks are irrelevant, too, sell, sell, sell. Second we dont want whats inside the personal computer. I think that intel is having such a weak quarter it may have to preannounce a shortfall. Microsoft, ouch, windows 8, maybe not so hot. But you would have thought there would be one call about the surface. Allegedly redhot tablet from mister softy, with all i better i cant turn on a Football Game without reading about it, seeing it. No, whats on the radar screen . Worrisome. Even worse, again for microsoft, no one asked about game consoles. Im used to writing off sony and nintendo, the alsorans, but if theres no console question, again anecdotally, we cant expect xbox to be the secret sauce, either. Pogue talks about ereaders as well as tablets, with considerable praise about the nook. Just to show you how a column like this is simply no more than a jumping off point, barnes and noble tells you the nook doesnt drive things. A fourcent loss, and despite what looks like outstanding nook sales, were dealing with a company that had 1. 88 billion sales, and didnt produce much of return. There was plenty of progress in terms of cash flow, but in the end the stock sold off badly. No nookie for the nook, as long its buried within barnes and noble, which brings me to the three musketeers of tech. Thats what im calling it from now on. Google, amazon and apple. Now, all three, like barnes noble, cant be judged by the tablet products, but we can and must make broader judgements about these companies. Pogie makes the point they all offer superior products. He says that pointblank, to me that says, well, hold it, this isnt about private labels offering superior value to branded products. No, its the opposite. Second, these companies are relentless innovators, all trying to oneup each other. Everywhere, the more i dig, the more i realize this competition isnt zero sum. All three could be winners in their own way. Amazon is a champ. Not because of the kindle, but because its offering superior value on everything it sells. I believe its the only real retail winner in a terrible month of november. We saw those numbers today. When the stores are closed in the wealthy portions of the northeast, that brings more samplers to amazon. Google, the last quarter was such a stinker, kind of count this company out these days, dont we . After the incredible decline, but thats in part because the companys core business of advertising is being crimped by the move to mobility. Google seems to be stumbling into that transition, one i think that facebook has mastered, but google is a player where it has to be in tablets and phones. Whenever we write this one off, it innovates and gets right back in the game the way microsoft and intel used to. Its all missouri, show me, but nevertheless when i read about their products, they may very well show us, which brings me to apple. [ mooing ] the amazing thing about apple, pogue admits that apple does have some incredibly serious competition for the ipad, but the competition happens to be the ipad mini. He doesnt come out and say it. The real takeaway is while google is coming after apple hard with the nexus, the game still belongs to apple, why . Because the tabletdesigned apps that make the apple ecosystem. All that lives within that ecosystem winners. Amazon, which is a super retailer with a slick razor to run the razor blades, apple is truly a tablet and smartphone driven company with a solid pc and ipod business, too. The fact that pogue makes the tablet out to be the de facto gift, when wall street seems to be disappointed with the ipad as well as sales for the iphone 5, tells me that the rally in apple that started a dozen days ago may have more steam. The bottom line sometimes you dont want to overthink things. In an ungamable fiscal cliff negotiation, it pays to keep an eye on the main chance. It may well be the three musketeers of tech. And the best stock. Barbara in texas, barbara. Caller hi, jim, this is barbara. Im interested in knowing, i got in Liquidity Services today at 37. 04. Its gone down lower, and how would you i put a stop in around a little lower, but. Yeah, boy, you know, this is a difficult marketplace. Ebay all the way up here is better. I think youre in the nonbest of breed. Logan in texas. Caller thank you for taking my call. My pleasure. Caller my question is theres been a lot of talk about the possibility of a copper shortage. I read that. Very interesting. Caller yeah. I was wondering, how does that affect a stock like caterpillar . They dont relate. If youre talking about the raw costs of caterpillar, thats largely steel. Steel is in glut, and the fact is if theres a copper shortage because theres so much business, cat will be benefiting. I think thats the case. The stock acted very well today in the face of negative comments. Elizabeth in florida . Caller hey, cramer. I own iaci. Sure, i know it. You know one of Major Holdings is match. Com. In october the stock took a huge hit as a result of a Patent Infringement lawsuit. Okay, this is of caveat. Its a possibility of future lawsuts. However, the fundamentals remain intact. Is it a match made in heaven or a bad date . Its a good date. Its profitable. I thought it was terrific. I am a buyer of interactive corp. As we wait for washington to rise above, remember to keep your eye on the main prize the chance its apple, its amazon, its google. For me, apple, its still the real standout. Mad money will be right back. Coming up power up . The devastation left in the wake of sandy is a stark reminder of just how vulnerable our Critical Infrastructure is. As this crucial backbone is rethought and rebuilt, cramer looks at one stock that seems to be in a powerful position. Could it recharge your portfolio . And later house of pleasure. Pending home sales rose to a fiveyear high today. Which stock should you move into, as the foundation for growth and housing becomes more secure . Tonight, its an open house for three potential plays on a real estate rebound. Which one should you put an offer out on . Plus best medicine . Health care trust of america leases over 12 million square feet of medical space nationwide. Could their hefty dividend help your portfolio stay healthy . Cramer gives his prognosis in an exclusive with its ceo just ahead. All coming up on mad money. Now that weve had a month to reflect on Hurricane Sandy, one thing is very clear. Our nation needs a new power grid. You know that and i know that. I call this storm a wakeup call to government officials and the utilities they regulate all over this country to finally start fixing our aging infrastructure. Its not just that the storm knocked out power in the northeast. One of the reasons why it took days or even weeks for people in new york or new jersey to get electricity back is because our grid is outdated. Did you know that 30 of our infrastructure is already approaching the end of its usefulness . Another 30 is approaching the end of its usefulness. This equipment should have been replaced ages ago. One of the reasons why youre disgusted in the northeast about what happened, and you have right to be. After sandy i think well finally start tackling this issue and start taking it seriously. One of the reasons is our lousy electrical grid is also a security threat. Heaven forbid a terrorist wanted to do some damage. All they would have to do is knock out a couple power substations, which are generally only protected by chainlink fence. One substation knocked out all of lower manhattan. Take a look at this clip. Doesnt that look like something out of a Science Fiction movie where aliens are invading . Escape from new york part 2. Anybody who has seen that footage knows we need to upgrade this grid. Thats where Quanta Services comes in. Its a leading Specialty Contractor that designs, installs, upgrades, repairs and maintains electric power networks, both for transmission and for distribution. If you were driving on any interstate before sandy, you probably saw caravans of quanta trucks what is that company . Its the who you gonna call outfit when the big one is coming. Plus quanta builds oil and natural gas pipelines. In short, its a postsandy play with a pipeline kicker. No wonder the stock at 25 is only a pont and a half off its 52week high. Because our grid is in such dire repairs, spending on the networks is on the rise, with an estimated 2 to 3 times average historical levels action and we can say for many years to come. This was ready before sandy was hit. Its fabulous for quanta. Postsandy were seeing a big drive to restore distribution. Thanks to these trends theyre looking at solid growth for the next three to five years. Because so much of the grid is made up of equipment past its shelf life, Companies Need to spend a lot more money to keep operating at the same level. The same thing is going on also in canada. Their electrical grid is just as outdated as ours, thats why quanta has made acquisitions. Canadian utilities estimate 100 billion on new transmission distribution infrastructure. Potential a really big business for this company, so its riding a great bull market in building on the new electrical power infrastructure, something that accounts for about two thirds of the company sales. Also a play on the pipeline bull market. Ive talked about the pipeline operators so many times. Kinder morgan, enterprise, all of these, you know, the within mark west, that big secondary. These are the guys spending billions upon billions to lay new pipe to service all the recent discoveries in north america, the bakken shale, the eagle ford, the canadian tar sands. Its not the companies that build the lines, but quanta. They have a complete turnkey infrastructure division. Last week the company as it was selling the business to daikon, but i like that, its a pure play on the two areas that have the most business. The power business, which we know after sandy is well, you have to put money in and the pipeline business where the money is being pumped in. Quanta has been on a real roll. Most recently when they reported in the aftermath of sandy, they posted a spectacular 11 cent earnings beat off a 37 cent basis. Revenues rising 34. 7 , and they gave upside guidance for the next quarter. Its the triple play. Because this is an infrastructure builder, we care about their backlog. The book of business their new bookings. The 12month backlog rose to a new record. The bookings increased by 17 for the previous quarter. Think about it like this. Quanta is a 5 billion company that has more than 4 billion of business over the next year. Doesnt that sound like the kind of stock you want to own . I think its a terrific longterm story, firing on all cylinders. Even though the stock is up 20 for the year, its still pretty darn cheap. And the stock is ten bucks below where it was four years ago before the Great Recession took hold and when there wasnt nearly as much business as there is now. Ill bet it could get a substantial higher price to earnings multiple. The tragedy of Hurricane Sandy was a revelation. Our country needs to upgrade its power grid and weve got to do it now. In this one area, it seems like our state governments and our utilities are actually on the case, which is why you want to own Quanta Services, power, pwr, the company that builds out new infrastructure and has a killer pipeline business. Whats not to like . After the break, ill try to make you more money. Coming up house of pleasure. Pending home sales rose to a fiveyear high today, but which stock should you moved into as the foundation for growth and housing becomes more secure. Tonight its an open house for three potential plays on a real estate rebound. Which one should you put an offer out on . [ male announcer ] this december, remember you can stay in and share something. Or you can get out there with your friends and actually share something. The lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. This is the pursuit of perfection. If we want to improve best values of the year. Our schools. What should we invest in . Maybe New Buildings . What about updated equipment . They can help, but recent research shows. Nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. Lets build a strong foundation. Lets invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. Lets solve this. No doubt about it. Housing is coming back with a vengeance. Today we learned that pending home sales increased by 5. 2 from september to october. Thats a fiveyear high. Every piece of housing of data has been positive or incredibly positive. The rebound has arrived. You know the housing stocks i have recommended, more on those later in the show. Im always trying to find some less exploited ways to play the housing resurgence. I want to look at the three derivative plays that have come public recently. Were talking about zilla, trulia and realogy. Its where potential renters and buyers go to find out all things real estate related. Realogy involved its supposed to been a fragmented business, but they have a huge share. Which of these recent ipos is the best way to play the rebound . All three stocks when they came public had very first rate stocks, but trulia and zillow spiked higher. Zillow went public at 20, and rose 78. 9 . Trulia came public in september, pricing 17, popping 41 on the first day of trading, just like zillow, the stock has pulled back to less than a dollar above its ipo price. Realogy priced at 27. Rising 26. 7 . Since then, realogy has kept on rallying. Its just a couple dollars off its high. I wish it were lower, i really do. I think this is a case where the action is quite telling. Theres a reason its done so much better in the aftermarket. Its because it has the most Sustainable Growth trajectory. Thats exactly what this stock market wants. Theyre relying on Online Advertising rates that are variable. Lately theyre not necessarily in a good way. The thing that differentiates them from any other place is they also sell leads to real estate agents. Right now this is a threeman game with zillo, trulia and realogy, but its very low barriers to entry. Theres nothing from stopping anyone getting in on the action. And once they have finished monetizing the user base, growth is slow, maybe slowing dramatically. Based on their recent results, we may already be reaching that negative Inflection Point where people get tired of checking the value of their home, stuff like that. When zillow reported on september 5th, it was good, but that isnt as important as the guidance going forward, and the guidance was just plain disappointing, which caused the stock to get poleaxed. It it was already beginning to decelerate dramatically. Now zillow grew revenues last week, but for 2012 its only expected to grow at a 72 growth, and the latest was just 67 . I know those are high on an absolute basis, but the street regarded it as a major deceleration. Thats what makes investors want to hit the road. The company beat the estimates when reported november 7th, but it was a low quality beat, which is why the stock plummeted. All the strength came from the media business, while the marketplace side came in below the projects. The subscriber growth decelerated. We know from googles last quarter, the advertising business has gotten hard. Theyre walking on a tightrope. Zillow trades at 48 times next years earnings. Trulia trades at a rather astounding 103 times next years numbers. They need to deliver stellar results. But realogy is different. Its a substantial oldline company with a management that has decades of experience. It benefits directly from the rebound in housing, and more importantly, volume the transactions is increasing rapidly. In a market these days, frankly i want to go with the old hands and tried and true. Realogy owns seven franchises thousands of more brokers. The Business Model here isnt complicated. When one of realogys realtors sells a home, the company gets a Commission Based on the sales price of the home. So now that were seeing both more transactions and higher housing prices, it has two great ways to make more money. Its pricey, selling 29 times next years earnings and 15 longterm growth rate. So were going to be careful here. I think the growth, though, can be revised higher as the housing rebound continues. That said, im going to wait on a pullback to the low 30s. I would buy it slowly and gradually. Remember, if we do go over the fiscal cliff that will take the whole market down, so you put this on a shopping list, because that could give you a te

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