Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20120421 : comparemela.com

CNBC Mad Money April 21, 2012



be backsliding, the earnings went out today. each day was different. the s&p 500 climbing, but the nasdaq, whoa, the apple-laden nasdaq, we're heading into the absolute height of earnings season. so it's time for me to give you the miranda warning. keep your gun holstered, your finger far away from the trigger, the cacophony creates confusion that's off the charts. so ask questions first and shoot later. if you take the quick-drake approach, you will make mistakes. this is the single the worst week of the year. it happens four times. but i still need to fill you in. i still need to give you a game plan of what's going to happen. monday morning we hear from conoco philliops. conoco is splitting. bad news is it's a used natural gas claim. i like the oil and gas business, i don't want to be in refining. netflix reports. talk about a quarter that's going to steal the show that day. will it return to growth? can it regain its luster. now everyone is simply caught up with it. it isn't special, yet sells at a special 25 times earnings, and that makes it too expensive. we get results from texas instruments. apple reports the very next day. texas instruments is a big apple supplier and nokia supplier. people are going to try to decide what apple may report. today too much supply from san disk, flash, we need this input so those who insist against my wishes on trading apple every minute, rather than investing in it, as i prefer, you will get some intel from those two companies. tuesday, yes, it is indeed apple day. they report after the close. that's all anyone is going to focus on, particularly after apple's declines. we need to hear that ipad and iphone demand is holding up. most important because of hype, apple has to beat not just the cone senses numbers, but the highest estimates out there, so jot these down if you want to. 11.80 of earnings per share and $41 billion in revenues. they must beat that. i think the near-term considerations should not control your thinking, because apple is an investment, not a trade. that's my rule, okay? also tuesday, in the morning, we hear from one of my favorite big cap names. and that is 3m. given the new products it has, i expect this company will do quite well, like so many other old-line industrials. if you stock gets hit, don't forget, 3m is a dividend aristocrat. which is probably why i have a predilection in its favor. nice different here. i think at&t doesn't have the growth of verizon right know. i expect expenses could be trending up. i suspect they're losing some share. that said, listen, this stock gets hit, because the down side is pretty minimal. nice yield. apple, we hear from panera bread. i'm comfortable with the numbers, but i have questions now with the turnover in management, so we can't be as confident as we would like to be. wednesday, monster day again. boeing and caterpillar will control the action. two key suppliers, the aerospace is red-hot. if boeing even whispers a slippage, that stock will indeed hurt the trust, for certain. but if all is well, i say the stock going to $76 pretty quickly, maybe even higher. we had ppg on the show yesterday, and the ceo talked about how construction is coming back. china on the other hand seems weaker. the situation is not as robust as i would like. while the stock has come down, i don't want to take a swig. i would rather just listen. believe, if it was up where it was, i would tell you to sell it. there's a lot of companies that i didn't include in this, because of the space, but this is the kind of thing i have to talk about. this is a sweeper stock that keeps blowing away the numbers. will this time be different? i don't think so. i bet against -- here's another odd one. after the close, we have a huge dividend boost, and we've seen time and time again that's a tip-off for an upside surprise. 9 i'm betting this could be a terrific trade going into the number if it is down ahead of the number. thursday morning we hear from celgene. this one tends to go down in the quarter and rally this biotech has an incredible pipeline. i want you in that stock if it gets hit. in it, exxon mobil also reports on thursday, who cares? they're the biggest, but not the best. still exxon will tell us the state of the state. if it sells natural gas has no real future, look for that tile to take another -- after the close we hear from amazon. all i can say is ouch. i think jeff bezos is spinning like a drunken sailor. i fear a shortfall. this is probably one of the most asked-about stocks, so has it come down enough to buy? too many people want to know this. that makes me nervous. i'm also nervous that ugg has peaked. omgpop, how about this zynga. no earnings, but i know why? is anyone clicking on the ads? scramble with friends, i've done everything i can to avoid the ads. friday brings international paper. how much more synergies there are. charitable trust owns this one. i suspect it will work maybe big. we have a nice dividend bump. is the restructuring working? but the earnings could be better, and we'll hear that raw costs have peaked. i think it will be similar to kimberly-clark. and, remember, proctor has some competition. colgate will report, and i believe it will very better numbers than protecter. last but not least, vf corp. it's been a great time. vf corporate is a fabulous apparel maker. it's going strong. they are terrific but vf gets hit, because eric wisen, said 140 stock, when that gets hit, it goes to 130. i say wait to the down draft. in the tidal wave of earnings, there are some terrific opportunities. just remember that you have to listen to the conference calls and not take your cue from the headlines. i'll have something about that later on in the show, when you ask questions first and shoot later, you're much more likely to come out ahead. let's go to pt in colorado to start the calls. pt? >> caller: hey, jim, a big mesa verde national park boo-yah. >> and i've been there. it's gorgeous. >> caller: i'm shopping for some alcoa. i watched your fantastic interview last night. >> thank you. >> caller: and he's one of the best. the problem is i've already gotten some, and they seem pretty tight at the hip. can i have my aluminum and fly it, too? will i be diversified enough? >> look, there's obviously overlapping, because they make the fasteners for the planes, but that said, they're into many different things. i would own them both. lots of earnings coming up next week, everybody, so you have to do your homework. we're mostly listening. hey, listen, we're waiting for big breaks. if vf is conservative, or maybe someone says wyndham is not any good. we're going to listen for the breaks, and then listen to the calls, and then take action. "mad money" will be right back. coming up, disaster recovery. investors seel on one fixer upper stock, but this knee-jerk reaction cost them "mad money." cramer is arming you with the tools to turn their loss into your gain. honeywell sweetened up portfolios today after reporting a strong -- could green jet fuel soon propel this stock higher? the earnings exclusive with the company ceo is just ahead. all coming up on "mad money." there's nothing worse than going to the post office and waiting in line. i don't have to leave my desk and get up and go to the post office anymore. [ male announcer ] with stamps.com, you can print real u.s. postage for all your letters and packages. it gives you the exact amount of postage you need the instant you need it. can you print only stamps? no. first class. priority mail. certified. international. and the mailman picks it up. i don't leave the shop anymore. [ male announcer ] get a 4-week trial plus $100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again. as i said many times, buying a stock during the height of earnings season is like crossing the street during rush hour traffic. you need to stop, look and listen before you make your moves. if you jump to a concluding without listening to the conference call, the odds are you will make a mistake. ask people about google, and then next day it fell 50 points. that's why i'm saying you can't afford to shoot first and ask questions later. this is very much a shoot-first market. gunned down after their report. even when the quarters are actually pretty darn good. i talked about this last night. they were case that were merely misleading. so they got confused, and the results must have been disappointing. the stocks had run up, and i think ibm comes back next week. even more confusing is when the market is just plain mistaken. so far this season there's been no bigger mistake than the reaction to swk. which reported wednesday night, actually and sold off viciously yesterday. this was a totally needless sell-off. who couldn't bother to wait for the conference call, but the poor judgment i think that is created a terrific opportunity for you to buy the stock at a discount, which is why tonight i want to explain what went wrong with stanley black & decker and maybe more important what didn't. so you can see what's happening here. more important so you, first, full disclosure i've been a big fan for ages, and last year my charitable trust bought it, and you can follow along, as a play on the housing bottom and improvement in manufacturing activity. it's been a big winner. when stanley bought black black, it was the larger on earth. the rest split between industrial and the fast-growing security division, magnificent. this is a pretty good business to be in right now. we know that swk gets about 15% from home depot and lowe's, two stocks that have practically established permanent residence on the high list. plus i also like that stanley has a fabulous team with massive merger expertise as well as pretty darn cheap stock, so what went wrong yesterday? for starters it had run up too much and the expectations had gotten out of control. stanley black & decker was a similar situation. well, anyway, 31 straight points or 66% from the lows of last october. everybody and their mother expected stanley to deliver a fabulous beat and raise. the estimates for home depot and lowe's were going up. you know that's my favorite of the group. and the weather was warmer than usual, resulting in very strong retail sales. so when the company not only failed to beat and raise, but it did miss numbers. earnings in three cents shy, the stock just got crushed, creamed, pulverized. granted, two of those on higher tax rates. and the guidance while impressive, was it enough? was it enough stanley black & decker, much like most -- didn't hold its conference call that night. they waited until the next day, 10:00 a.m. the following day, all sorts of speculation about what really happened? i mean, any information, the company's injudicious policy, and not even before the opening next day made it much easier for people to shoot first and ask questions later. i have to say i'm pretty furious that the policy is to wait until 10:00 a.m. the next day and should be changed immediately so that the same thing does that happen the next quarter or the one after that. if i was on the board on monday morning, i would say i watched "mad money," we're changing that policy and put it right to the ceo. i always say wait for the conference call, but yesterday we had to make an exception for the charitable trust. the market's reaction seemed too darn extreme. we talked about violating the rules, and we want -- there was plenty to like in the quarter from the release the swk did deliver 12% revenue growth, 3% organic growth, gross margin was flight despite heavy inflation pressure. free cash flow, and we liked the earnings guidance, so we did take action. sure enough, management did a terrific job explaining the results. if they had only held the call wednesday night, i don't think the stock would have pulled back nearly so hard. it's crazy. the company explained they were seeing a housing recovery, told you the point of sale was strong at its top 12 customers from just 1% in the fourth quarter, because sales in the channel lagged sales out of it. these numbers, and i think pick up big. as for the margin declines, that was part seasonality we learned, but also because they required a company call -- and they didn't realize all synergy, but management said we see the full benefits. they were stellar, courtesy of improved demand. management also expects raw costs to peak. hey, listen, it's plastic, plastic is going down in price. putting it all together, full-year earnings guidance, seemed way too conservative. i also got a feel that things are so good, a special dividend could be on its way on top of stanley's also solid 2.1% yield. this is 11 times earnings. that is a big discount, average historical multiple, but the story wasn't told right, and it wasn't told in time, and that got people down. here's the bottom line. when you combine great expectations, and a conference call that didn't happen until late in the morning after the market opened, you can get hideous, unnecessary declines, like the one we saw at stanley black & decker yet. digging through the details and more important listening to the conference call, it's clear the fundamentals are much better, which is why i believe swk is worth buying here until the market comes to its senses and the stock goes back up. out of quick-draw hedge funds and a management that doesn't understand the market, comes a true opportunity that you need to pass on. stay with cramer. coming up, turn up the thermostat? honeywell sweetened up portfolios. the green jet fuel propelled the stock higher. cramer's earnings exclusive with the company's ceo is just ahead. we have reached the end of green week. manufacturer. i'm talking about honeywell. the diverse fitted industrial company. to security gear, special terms, allo parts. when you think green, your mind normally goes to similar companies, but these solution obvious don't amount to much energy at all. but you know what makes a real difference and actually terrence a profit? energy efficiency. plus more gas mileage by 35%, just two days ago, the company announced they're flight testing a new green jet fuel. a biofuel based on an oilseed feedstock. one of the best-run companies i know. they reported a -- 99 cent basis, that rose 7.3%. stock was up above -- and given an excellent return of over 40%, including reinvested dividends. here with us tonight. mr. cody, welcome back. >> what a wonderful intro. >> well, look, it's -- >> always nice to see you units i take my cue from you. >> you started out with the word terrific. >> even within that, i feel pretty confident. so i guess i probably am. >> it sounds like this is not something that will be done in a year or two. >> we just got a 2.8 million in this was a $500 million deal that so we're -- we feel pretty good about that one. >> so if aerospace does good, is this performance materials business. people don't know what performance material are. describe the big orders that you got that drove that terrific number. we are the leading designers throughout the world. >> you refine even oilsands oil. >> not just oilsands, but when you think about even household detergent, the stuff you use, it's usually refined using our stuff. now, i mentioned that the turbo engines, and now that is a business where i did not see great growth. you really ascribed a lot of that -- you're talking about the united states maybe being strong, but europe -- it's tough, right? >> auto sales in europe are down about 10%. >> that's big. >> you see they're down 10%, but we were down only 1%. the big driver is we're winning so many platforms and so many new things. when the auto industry comes back a bit, that business will perform really well. >> and you're also doing well despite the fact you still are not getting the building construction. >> correct. you think about automation and controls solutions, there is an impact to housing, and that is been pretty much flat for a while? >> we're performing this well, and that hasn't even started to take off yet. i feel pretty good about where things could go. >> when you look at this aerospace, what i come down to, you're in everybody's plane, you're agnostic. if i want to look at the division that did worry me the most, defense and space, is that just going away? >> i don't know that it's going to go away, but i would say -- i've been predicting defense industry downturn for six years, so i might finally be right. we've been kind of planning for this for a long time, saying these unsustainable, so i think this year we're right. >> it finally happens. >> it finally happens, but i don't think it will be precipitous. we have a first half/second half difference. we'll see more impact in the second half, but then declines only 1% or 2% after that. >> not a killer. china was weird for you guys. a lot of people wouldn't think that china would get stronger during a quarter. it started slow. >> we ended up with 20% growth in china this quarter, which is -- you know, if that's what bad is, great. we'll take more of it. but a big chunk of that was driven by long cycle stuff. a short cycle, we did see the rate of orders growth decline a bit. personally i think as you start to get into the second half with the leadership transition, more financial flexible in the country, helping to boost the new president coming in. nobody wants the new president to come in and have a bad economy. >> it is earth week. i think you guys have done more than almost any other company to come up with economic solutions, not pie in the sky solutions, but solutions that don't need government subsidies. i know you're acutely conversation of government deficits. you seem to make money on what you do, but you also seem to help. >> well, we've always thought that was the way you had to do it. it's got to be a good product, accomplish a good end, but it has to make sense. if it doesn't make economic sense, it's not going to last. this one is really simple. it's just a prestige thermostat. now, you wouldn't believe the amount of complexity that is behind the simplicity that's in this. it's a terrific quote i think that simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, in steve jobs' book, goes back to leonardo da vinci, but that's what our guys have done. it can connect to the internet. it knows when you're in, when you're out. something like this, when you consider that half of your energy use is your heating and cooling system, and all of that can be control through this thermostat, you can cut by 30% without affecting your comfort. nobody wants to save energy and be warmer in the summer, colder in the winter or have a car that doesn't go like the last one this. this thermostat does it. our guys have done a tremendous job. it connects with the internet, which is important, because that leads to this, what we call the total connect system. this is a more sophisticated version. we call it tuxedo. what it allows you to do. you can tie in your security system, your automation system, your energy system, and you can even get multimedia. what this means is now with a single button, you can actually control your whole house. you can save energy, reduce -- turn on the fans, bring the window shades down, everything. get the temperature outside, you can see your video, your -- you can be at work, hone in on the camera at home, see that your child arrived safely at home. >> that's a holy grail. >> pretty neat stuff. >> is that 100 percent agave? >> that's dragonas, and it didn't -- $40 a bottle. >> it should win. stuff is tremendous. it says honeywell green jet fuel. that's exactly what this is. when you read about jet planes being flown back and forth across the atlantic, how we flew our own plane to the paris air zone, this is made from camolina, a weed, and this will fly a plane. >> th

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