Doesnt it . How long can stocks and bonds continue to go up together sh. Id say several more basis points out of the bond, judge. We have got low volatility, low inflation. Those are both helping stocks and bonds. The bonds of course are just running like crazy. There must be more shorts in this than in tesla, but down at 214, 212, where ever the ten year is, you could see it push to two. Perhaps under two. K is to bes are going to continue to go up. If its because of low volatility, then where he, and china saying they can see themselves buying more of the bonds again instead of stepping away from them like they allegedly has been doing over the past several months. Thats another thing thats you know, working against the bears on that trade. I dont know what it is. Rick, i mean, i dont know, is it worry about the agenda . Is it i dont know, ahead of comey . The economy . What is it. Why do bond yields continue to go lower. I think we can safely say it isnt comey. Running a memo b about it right now. Throwing your hands up in the air after a while saying why the heck do bond yields keep going down. I think i have it in my mind pretty straight. Its the rest of the world im going to have to convince. Ive talked at great length that Central Banks have broke the smoke signal machine. That we now see the signals coming up, but nobody knows the language. If we are 75 or 100 basis points higher, we probably wouldnt be having this discussion, would we, jon . No and wed be worry ied if were up at 270, would they be moving. Now, the only question that matters. Central banks own 18. 3 trillion, give or take, of the tradeable 54 trillion of bonds out there. Jon, do you think if they sold a chunk of that, we could get a 50 or 100 basis point rise . Maybe we could see france get over 1 , maybe the u. K. Get back over 1 . Maybe we could see boons get back over 70 basis points. The think some of these countries have such significantly lower yields than ours, then you look at Central Banks. I think the discussion we are having is an impossible discussion to find the Promised Land sh, which is the answer. We have no idea where rates would be if it wasnt for ben bernanke, the ecb or the japanese. We really dont or for that matter, the bank of england. I tolt otally get you, i do, because its had a dramatic impact. No normal anymore as a result of everything you said, so we dont know what it is. But i do agree with you that when ever i dont know the percentage, but disappointment that we havent enacted some of the policies or disappointment that the Global Economy even though its improving, isnt improving fast enough. All those are definitely channel, but i think theyre channels that are about that big, versus the central bank channel thats you know, monstrosity. Good points. Josh, look, dollar, weakest level since november. Gold and bit coin continue to go up and these bond yields continue to go down every day and some wonder how long that can continue, whether stocks and bonds can rally from these levels and how much that can last. Thats what jeffrey says, its hard to see a rally from these levels continuing for both. So, i must be an idiot because i dont think this is that complicated at all. I think you have investment demand at record levels around the world. The ainges pop rationlations of china, japan, europe, the United States. The demand for safe assets has never been higher. Its not going to go away tomorrow. People are living longer. People have enormous portfolios. You have 100 trillion economy here in the United States. Could be 200 trillion two years from now and people need somewhere to put the money where they feel its going to be the next day. Why is this so difficult . Heres the other thing, this idea that stocks and bonds cant rise together for much longer, first of all, thats what theyve done for most of the last four decades. Second of all, going back to 1926, stock and bond prices have gone up at the same time about 40 of the time, so, to say this is somehow bizarre or rare and then even just in the last ten years, the total bond market has had positive returns in nine of the last ten years. The only year it was down was 2013 in which it was down 2 , which you might as well call flat. So i dont know why this is so cont controversial. You want me to buy ibm, josh, if janet yellen or coroda, decide to buy ibm, you dont think that would have an effect on ibms price . Zpl i do. I do. I think you guys are totally by the way, i dont think its helpful. I dont think what theyre doing is the story about Everybody Holding on to fixed income, its a demographic issue. Is anybody at this desk recommending an aggressive purchase of these sovereigns . Were not doing that here. Dont talk over each other or we cant hear anything. Were not doing that here. We have stock, the taper was three years ago. Its an old story. The fed is is not increasing the amount of treasuries. Over a trillion thus far this year. Sfl its a stock versus buying of the security. This is the stock versus the flow. You guys are saying the same thing frankly. Were not arguing, were just animated people. I generally agree, but i want to say this. I think what scotts driving at here and what i feel here is that traditionally, if you look at yields coming down the way they have, if you look at the flatness of the yield curve, thats a bad omen for the economy and thus, for profits and cash flows. For the stock market. Yeah. Thats what josh, youre drying and rick is driving. Were not in kansas and havent been for ten years. I think we got to Pay Attention to the jobs report last week, the Second Quarter estimates which were supposed to row re bound dpr a terrible First Quarter has been sequentially coming down and maybe all is not well in denmark maybe we have a Slower Growth economy, still growth. Can i make a point from an investor perspective, seven years ago, eight years ago, the narrative was that bonds have nowhere to go. Think and eight years later, low rer and lower. Think how many bad decisions that narrative has caused individuals to make. Constituti institutions to make. How many trillions of dollars allocated to sharl mans and traded poorly. The reality is we dont have 1,000 years worth of data on the bond market where we can say yields can only go in one direction. We dont know where theyre going. The prudent allocator has been buying treasuries alongside equities, rebalancing periodically and making a ton of money, period, end of story. I dont know necessarily that its a bad thing and i think theres social consequences, i think theres market c consequences. I think we dont agree with what they are doing. Market consequence is simple. If you are a ceo, a cfo, youre looking at the debt markets. You have access to debt. Youre able to fund acquisitions. Youre able to go to the dept markets, raise the capital, do buybacks. Thats beneficial to earnings. Whats going to crack first . Nobody knows the answer to when it cracks first. Im going to suggest its likely to be stocks. Thats great, but the reality is the professional successful investor and trader is the one that when they crack, recognized the crack and doesnt buy one on the can cost you years and years of upside. Youre both right on that, but theres also one other thing im surprised we havent brought up here, in terms of an explanation for this disconnect between bond yields and stock prices. Theres no inflation. Period, stop. I dont care, up 2. 5 . That aint it. Until there is wage inflation, you frankly may not see higher interest rate. Whatever happeneded to the reflation trade that everybody was talking about . Its all gone into stocks. Its stock flation. I like that. Job openings, record high. I was talking about that last hour. And hes been spot on about it. So, when you see that, is that really where you could finally see what youre looking for . Its not jolts though. Theyre at a multimonth low. Openings, we cant forget quits. We cant fill the positions i think is whats most interesting. Theres a reason. Its because weve got a mismatch in skills. When you look at what the 6 million open positions are, the leading categories, finance and insurance. Construction and hospitality. And people that were in manufacturing last month, dont look at themselves in the mirror and say, im nin hospitality no. What about the notion, rick, do you think theres anything to the bond market trying to say were over our a little bit, the stock market still needs to hear the music . So to speak . That the stock market has a little ahead of itself . Bond markets telling you maybe its not going happen like we think . I just dont see it. Now, i can understand the stock market at some point getting disappointed about things like tax policy, but i think investors have a long runway there. But no. I continue to think maybe we havent completely reverseded out the gains in price and develop in yield since the election is for exactly the opposite reasons. The last two term president was a cool guy, but his policies in many peoples opinion including mine, werent really economically sound growth policies. If you really want to take care of people, the best way to do it is not the way of venezuela, the best way to do it is have a really great economy then let the schumers take all the profits for their program. Thats the way it should work. Sfwl rick, appreciate you come ong. Talk to you soon. Thank you, guys, always fun. Rick santelli up in chicago. Well, it is not often we see a downgrade of apple. Did get that yesterday. It did move the stock and came ahead f the worldwide dw developers conference. Andy hargraves made it. Cut the stock, joins us now. Welcome. Do you feel you were early on this . I might be, but quite frankly with a call like this, where my perspective to the upside, is super significant over the next few months. Id rather be early rather than late. I guess i ask that question sort of suggesting to do it ahead of wwdc. You werent moved by anything apple moved yesterday . Virtual reality, augmented real, any of the products they showed . No, i wasnt. Maybe youre just missing the boat. Its. Its possible. Being more and more oriented around the services. Im not of the views that iphone going away anytime soon, but when you take over multiple years, the value is in what the devices ago access and that is where apple is the weakest. That showed up yesterday, where you have a nice speaker, but its a speaker. Its josh brown. I want to get your take on the ak kit, which some technologists are saying could be the platform to beat. Then on the speaker, just a quick comment. Do you really think three years from you, were going to be sitting around and accessing the web via a device in our hand or is is it more likely were just talking generally and the computers in our home, apple speaker or alexa, are doing the computing away from our hand. If thats the case, suspect potentially the home pod way more important than maybe it might be for the next six months . So, im of the view that our interactions with compete however you wanted to find it is is going to be more fragmented. To be more and more the silent, omnipresent thing. Thats why i bring up the point about services. The things that people are accessing in that scenario, are what are going to create value. And that plays away from the slent. Our home pod is going to be great for people who want good, quality sound, but some smart, i think thats a tiny fraction of the overall mark. On the first question, its really, really early. The model around it are nascent so say the least. Most successful so far. And so we have to see more about what you can do with it before i can say ar kit is meaningful to apple. We discussed this very issue yesterday. You urged people to maybe take some profits. Maybe put it into another stock like alphabet. When do you get back in . This is not as others have said, a trading stock. Its an owning and investing stock, so you tell me if i heed your advice, when do i get back into anpple . Weve got a 12 month fair value at 145. If it meets your return threshold, you would get back in. After that, i would have to see something that makes me think the number is going to change meaningfully and i dont have that right now. Joe. Andy, youre not very excited about the Services Side of the business from what i hear. A lot of the upside weve witnessed so far year to date in apple is about the growth and the Services Side. Why do you seem so skeptical about that. Sxwl when you peel back the onion on an a l services business, theres one giant piece that makes most of the profit and thats the app store. I have no issues with the app store. Its a phenomenal business. And theres, it will continue to grow. I do think that the growth there is going to deaccelerate. Just as the user base has slowed. I think well see some slowing in the spin as well. But thats theyre only entree and when you look at people are looking on smart phones, just on computing in general, theres a lot of other avenues that people are making in the amount of money that apple isnt p participating in at all and i dont think is structured to participate in, or at least thot structured to win it. The app store is doing well, i just dont think thats enough to you know, warrant the stock going higher andy, thanks for coming on. I pleeshuate your call very much. Jimny, what do you make of this call . Well, look, first off, hes got an opinion on the iphone 8. I have a different opinion. Neither one of us are going to know until this fall when it comes out. He said its priced in. You dont think . I dont think. Whats priced in is an iphone upgrade cycle like the 7, which was an off year. I think this being the tenth year, ths theres a lot of pent up demand. The people are holding back for this iphone 8. I think this is going to be bigger and by the way, scott, you know what nobody is talking about is india. They have slowly been making enroads in india. Been doing manufacturing there, getting permission to sell there. That could be very big in fiscal, in the next year fiscal 19, which is really calendar year 2018. Scott, augmented reality just like josh said, i think thats huge. The kit, the developer kit they taubed about at the conference at wwdc, along with 27 million subscribers, paid subscribers over at apple music now, now, thats still half of spot fi, but theyre catching up. Keeping an eye on it. I disagree with andy. Respect him, but disagree because i think like jim said, between the potential of that augmented reality on the iphone as well as the subscriptions growing as fast as they are, paid subscriptions, i think thats huge. Hes downgraded the stock 50 lower than these levels. Upgrades and downgrading every quarter. Its a dangerous game to get in front. Oh, its worse. With the momentum that it seemingly has. Its worse than dangerous. Because the Business Model of the upgrade and the downgrade has nothing to do with a regular investor deciding whether or not to invest in apple. This generates trading activity. This has nothing to do with whether or not apple should be bought or sold. Sbl make it quick. They get the benefit of the doubt. To introduce products that they fail, okay, theyre fine. Theyve got enough cash. Well introduce another one. Heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. Next up, one of our own has todays call of the day. See why joe says forget fang, invest in this tech giant instead. Before the break, apple shares after a Worldwide Developers conference like yesterday. Our data partner show stock talk falling in the two weeks after the event, baugh month later, apple is is positive one month after a developers conference. At fidelity, trades are now just 4. 95. We cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Hthis bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my Trading Platform wherever i go. You know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right . Oh, so my custom studies will go with me . Anywhere you want to go the markets hot sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. Only at Td Ameritrade welcome to holiday inn whether for big meetings or little getaways, there are always smiles ahead at holiday inn. A used car, the mwhat the. Turned. [ eerie music ] [ guitar plays ] [ music abruptly ends ] [ alarm beeping ] [ guitar plays again ] [ music abruptly ends ] [ alarm beeping ] [ guitar plays again ] [ drum beats ] [ upbeat music ] she is real. The mummy. Rated pg13. What other stocks could outperform the fangs . Comes from one of our own. Its from joe, who says microsoft will outperform facebook, amazon, alphabet. Bold call. I think its important in the market environment were in now to kind of reck nice the con fluns of momentum, which is so important. I know josh watches and fundamentals. Pete has done an unbelieve bable job over the last couple of years highlighting the fundamental transformation of microsoft and the appreciation, but the moment of now microsoft o is is actually outperforming facebook and anning and its coming to you on the back of really strong earnings and now, you see the interest and the momentum accelerating as well. Where theyre hitting on all marks is really in the cloud space. The hybrid space, which is so important. The integration between public and private on site demand. And you just have a collaboration if you look at platform software, infrastructure, as a service, microsoft is the leader in each. Azure, windows linked in. The ability to offer it to each of those. Azure. Azure. Cloud platform. Threw me. I didnt know what you were talking about. This segments going well. Really well. Thanks, scott. Bottom line. Is your talking about a company that right now, in the moment, has the ability to find momentum and earnings and take it. Joe, your shirt. Can i ask you a question . Great company. By the way, when you make the money, its all green. I got you. Look, its made a lot. Right . You said since the election. No matter what your accent is. Zpl made a lot of money the stock has done really well. The mouz is not crazy. Its not crazy multiple. You know, peg ratio of about 2. 5 is a little heavy. Where do you see the growth rate . You mentioned clouds, but at heart, isnt this still windows as driver and if im right in that, windows as the driver, where do you get the growth in windows . The driver of this is that they are so dominant in the intersurprise space. In the absence of a second competitive challenge to them. Thats where the driver is. What about oracle. Nowhere near what microsoft is delivering now and all three of those cloud services. Additionally, the quantitative element to youre finally s