>> really a macro call based on valuation and you have to consider the dollar as part of it. i just think yen has more potential upside. the it's a pair trade, as you said, it's not that i'm short the s&p, bearish, it's a relative performance. thinks the s&p could still outperform. this is like a mid year trade. >> sure, if you were thinking about mean reversion and the huge gaps in valuation and performance thaend you're looking at the recent trend that shows a big reversal from what we've seen in the last few years. for contest, we're overweighting em. i've been flogging this horse for months. so it's nigs to hear him agree with it. eem is up 16.5% year to date. this is the key to outperformance this year i think is to be in europe, even japan, nikkei looks like it wants 20,000 badly. as we're talking, is breaking a level to the upside that it isn't seen since may of 2015. if you look at spy you can see a change in trend, that's coinciding with better economic news. and i genuinely think that what's gone on in the first three to four months is going to be exacerbated further into year end as everyone chases this, so you may not have seen nothing yet, as they say. >> i thought it was interesting as part oz hf thesis was that so much money has been flowing into passive investing, index funds and what have you, that it's pushed the valuation of the s&p 500 too high. has that sort of unbind, as you get a move back towards active, that this is why this pair trade is going to work. >> you doebt don't have mch on t the high frequency side. you've got south korea in here in the eem swelts brazil and so forth and if you can link those two up, well, good luck to you. as far as manipulating that and i'm not saying manipulate in a bad way. as far as money flowing in there and grabbing chunks of the s&p 500, lifting stocks like amazon and apple and goldman sachs and the stocks that we've talked about ad nauseam here, i think it's good call by jeffrey. and it underperformed for years. last year, the outperformance started. >> bottom line, is this the time and to really consider values elsewhere? whether it's eem or europe. the answer is yes. >> even as jeffrey says, the s&p could still outperform in the near term. >> most of the time, you are supposed to have a diversified portfolio. particularly if you are high net worth investor. you're supposed to have international stock, including emerging markets in there. my only problem with this call is if he's right on both side of the pair trade implying he thinks the s&p 500 is going to come down, the problem with that is that as the s&p 500 comes down, they get a little scared and they're going to take money out of the riskier assets like emerging markets. this is a case where this is very correct and i think josh you used the concept, if this is your type of trade. you've got to realize investor behavior in the retail space is not thinking about pair trades. they're thinking about absolute returns and if you get something crazy, which happens in emerging markets like a bank of cyprus going belly up, that's going to get outflows on the retail emerging markets. >> i understand if you say the s&p sarts to come and people get nervous, it's not like they're going to be in the mood to buy. i don't disagree, but for something like this, you have to think bigger than just what goes on in the next election. during the this time frame, european stocks did well, emerging markets did great. if we're starting to think in chunks of three, five and ten year, you are correct that investor behavior might yank assets from foreign markets, but if we have a lost decade for the s&p, which is possible from -- sxwl why is the vix as low as it is? why is the s&p trading in such a tight range as it has been? what's the message in that? hold on, are we complacent or trying to figure out where the best bang for your buck is, and that's why people are reluctant to put money into the s&p 500. they are investors such as jim simons sitting out on long island and there are scientists and pafds who have developed -- and we have developed efficiencies in the marketplace and what we are witnessing is mathematics at work. we have a volatility index at a 24-year low and understanding that, the relationship the correlations are all mean reverting intraday, so if you know volatility is not going to be expanding, ranges are not going to be expanding further, then what you're sitting there doing scientifically during the course of the day with these is is when something is getting outside of the range statistically, where it should be based on volatility, you bring it back in again and it's really about that top that spins that is not spinning that much. the last thing i would say is think about where wurp a couple of years ago and the conversation with high frequency trading. we were so concerned about it, we're now witnessing the efficiency of it. >> joe, i want to respond to this. something i've been saying from the beginning of the year is i think it's wrong for us to look at a market like the s&p 500. i'm bringing a new facet in it. the out performance this year of growth versus value has been tremendous. the russell 1000 growth is up 12.3%. if you're in those growth stocks, which includes apple, facebook, et cetera, you're feeling like this is a bull market. the russell 1,000 value is up 3.p 3-% and if that's where you invest, you don't feel the s&p 500 reflects where your market is. when we're talking about the markets, whether it's flows like you're talking about or fundamentals, this is a tale of two cities you're talking about investing and i agree with your classification. josh was talking about market exposure. you're a long-term investor. you always have that exposure. >> the near term, oil prices could create a risk to edm. >> mike fell off. imt to jump ahead and do some reporting. new at noon story and developing one related to pandora. last night along with earnings, you may have heard by now, that pandora announced it was considering strategic alternatives, including pursuing a share, which some of the largest shareholders have pushed through. some involved kkr making a $150 million investment in pandora. it's a financing deal that will close in 30 days. david faber has been doing a lot of great reporting op this story. i just want to add some of my own. i'm told from sources that pandora is not only actively trying to sell itself, but it believes that it can get a deal done before that 30-daytime period ends. in which case, it would have to pay kkr $15 million basically in insurance policy as david was saying, certainly as i'm hearing, that's how the company views that $15 million payment. giving the company a 30-day option to sell itself, which it thinks it can do, i'm told. the company's adviser are actively working to get a deal done. according to my source, pandora is confident that the investor makes it more likely to happen and that's why they were will be willing to spend the $15 million for an insurance policy, much more to come on that, but again, my reporting is that pandora is confident that it can get a deal done in the next 30 days before the financing deal with kkr would close. pan doria said no to $15 a share and the belief was they found a private equity firm that's going help them with the losses they're bleeding until either the strategy starts to work out or somebody else comes along willing to pay more than 15. if what you're saying pans out, this is the opposite outcome from consensus on the name. >> we're getting no comment from pandora on o news. i think david mentioned sirius. i don't have any reporting on that. there was unusual activity in the name yesterday. most thaukt it was probably related to earnings or something like that. given the time frame, your reporting saying within 30 days, which i did not know last night, but now that we're hearing that, the upside calls, that's something they can still cash in on even though the stock dipped to 950. >> the 30 day financing isn't by accident. >> they think they can get a deal before it's over and they are actively working to make that happen. >> scott, it provides a much needed safety net. you know i've been in and out of this name multiple times and talked on the air incorrectly about a deal occurring. i believed it was going to occur. at one point, i thought it was going to occur at $18. that would be fantastic if it happened at that price. we're talking about a xhaen that when you look at its cash and short-term investments, just two years ago, it was approach iing $400 million. it now sits at 200 million. it is a deteriorating balance sheet, make the entry into the music space. but they get the financial safety net and i think even better, they get the expertise they need on the board. >> they did announce the board changes as well. it's money well spent, worth the insurance. >> this falls into the category of great service, great product. terrible business. streaming music. it's just not a good business. probably will become a worse business as you see the op ls of the world spend more and more money to be in streaming et cetera. almost no one's making money here. pandora's got great global ads, but it's not an ideal client they're serve iing those ads to. that's the client not paying the subscription fee. it's the kint that doesn't spend the money and then the subscription business, it's not great and they're not really doing a lot, you know, in terms of innovation, so i think like it's tough to make the case that there's going to be some dwraet deal for this company. >> never good on a short time frame. that empowers the potential buyers. not seller. >> i know it's only -- >> it's not the first time that we're either hearing about the possibility of pandora doing a deal either. not really defending your story well enough and recognizing how quickly the competition is coming on. here's a classic example of a business that has a tremendous amount of o competition. really wasn't prepared for it. >> we'll follow that. it's going to be active obviously throughout this this day minimum and certainly over the next many weeks as we understand it. let's stick with tech. we mentioned apple. that amazing run continuing today. another all time high. like a broken record. market cap now above $800 billion and social capital founder, appearing on cnbc earlier today, he had this to say op why he's changed his mind on the tech giant. >> i think what's misunderstand is is that there is an emerging business that none of us are paying enough attention so, what is the ios business, so all of the business of apps and selling subscriptions is misunderstood, including by me. >> i think what's interesting about what he had to say is that he views this story as a software and services story. the iphone is what it is. obviously, it's an incredibly powerful hardware device for apple, but the better part of the story and maybe the most misunderstood and maybe for him is software and services. >> right and that software, the ios he called out there, that's interesting because not a lot of us focus on that, scott, a lot of us on this desk including pete focuses in on services, services, services. and every time scott scoffs at it, pete just nails it again and says services. obviously, the growth there is amazing and just last week when they reported, we said look at the device sales as well. watch sales doubled year over year. double digit growth in an installed base of a you know, that a knowledge that a billion units and things like that. these are all things that play to apple's strength and i think that's part of why the gentleman change d his view based on this new analysis he's made. >> one of the big mistakes with apple that i've seen is people trying to put it into a box. is it consumer tech. is it hardware? is it software? it's such a, it's such a distracting and in the end, irrelevant conversation. the question is, is apple going to do better or worse in the future and nothing, nothing that's gone on in the last few years would lead any sane person to say that apple's competitive position is not great. or apple somehow doesn't have the where with all to continue to do well in services and in addition, none of that has happened, so this idea that i'm not going to pay x multiple because it's a consumer hardware, you don't know what this is. it's a unicorn. there is nothing else like it it's ever existed and the cash they have has always given them the ability to get into new markets, to do pretty much whatever they want and beat up any competitor they need to. i think that's been missed in the conversation. >> feels like at this point, everybody on earth owns stock, either outright or through a fund. what if you don't? >> 854. >> here's the thing. i think you buy it here. the next 12 percentage points, if if you are one of those few who don't own it, the next 12 guarantees the ten after that. i would never say that about a stock. this isn't even technical analysis, t not fundamental. it's specific apple trading analysis. you get the next 12 percentage points, you're at 900 billion on the market cap. i can guarantee you every news channel out there is going to have a little box in lower right that has an apple 1 trillion watch monitor on it just like we watched dow 20,000 or the bp oil spill. it will gain so much hype at a 900 billion that you're almost guaranteed to get it. >> how does this not a sell on the news come the eight in the fall? >> it might be. you could have a 10% drawdown in apple overnight. there's absolutely no reason to believe that just because they're an incredibly successful company, the stock will lose all volatility it's ever had. this is a name that's endured 20 and 30% drawdowns in most of the years since the iphone was originally launched in 2007. it's a decade of this product becoming bigger and better and more refined an more iterative and in the meantime, investors haven't been able to tuck it under their pillow. >> do you buy it at 154 or think it's going to be a sell on the news later in the year. >> quickly, it is sell on the news but that's much later. you're talking october. when the iphone launches, you do sell the news, it's may, we've got a few months and i think this thing will get sucked up to 1 trillion. i think you buy it here. absolutely. >> here's what else is coming up on the halftime report. >> next up, rage and returns. the stocks are soaring while the passengers are fuming. how high can the stocks run if all the customers seem so unhappy? plus, the winner of this year's sohn best idea contest. back in two minutes. in two min. online u.s. equity trades... ♪ ...you realize the smartest investing idea, isn't just what you invest in, but who you invest with. ♪ when a fire destroyed everything in our living room. we replaced it all without touching our savings. yeah, our insurance won't do that. no. you can leave worry behind when liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance violence at ft. lauderdale airport after spirit canceled nine flights. spirit says the fligtss were canceled because pilots in a battle with the airline refused to fly. the stock by the way is up. 35% or there abouts over the past year. air raids also in australia, check this out. the ceo was address iing a business breakfast when a man came in and hit him in the face with a pie. >> i don't know if -- i'd be okay with that. buffett said it was a difficult business, used to be b suicidal. >> everyone with a cell phone is going to be recording whatever actions they view as being antipassenger, discontinues throughout. >> we talked to brad yesterday despite the backlash. not backing away from stocks at yesterday's sohn investment conference. he pitched yupted as his top idea on stage, say iing the sto can nearly double. he's sticking with it. the company made the right steps. he said yesterday we thought it would double, right? >> he said by the way, he bought more. >> we'll hear later when warren updates, but i bet you he added to it. negotiated, debated with pete while you were gone, i was taking the bull case on united and if warren's not selling here, if ch he did in the case of ibm, i think that goes higher. they were buying at the 78.50 strike b and selling at a strike above it. they're defining the risk the same way. i wouldn't go out and buy either of these stocks. i'd do a call spread. >> i think it's ironic seeing the meeting and then return from sohn and they're being contrarian. so i find that -- >> you're a little cynical there. >> i'm in jet blue, the only one buffett doesn't own. i think it's too small for berk shirks but this is the most interesting because it's obvious if there's going to be more consolidation, this would be the play. even if there isn't, they have such an ironclad lock on their base. when they put out their flights for christmas time last month, they're doing just fine in terms of their ability to raise price. >> the regionals have been the play and i'm wrong because i thought that the large aircraft carriers would struggle through the publicity surrounding what happened with united. i never expected them to come back this quickly. the southwests, alaska, hawaii. jet blue. they have the ability to grow the footprint. i i think that's the most critical thing right now. >> coming up, we're going to hear from the winner of the sohn idea contest. the stock idea that impresseded david ireinhorn so much. and one is here, we'll have a double dose of unusual activity. the retailer and miner that options traders say are heading higher. higher. brian, i just need to know if the customer app will be live monday. can we at least analyze customer traffic? can we push the offer online? brian, i just had a quick question. brian? brian... legacy technology can handcuff any company. but "yes" is here. you're saying the new app will go live monday?! yeah. with help from hpe, we can finally work the way we want to. with the right mix of hybrid it, everything computes. dearthere's no other way to say this. it's over. i've found a permanent escape from monotony. together, we are perfectly balanced, our senses awake, our hearts racing as one. i know this is sudden, but they say: if you love something... set it free. see you around, giulia ♪ ♪ ♪ i'm dr. kelsey mcneely and some day you might be calling me an energy farmer. ♪ energy lives here. thithis is the new new york.e? think again. we are building new airports all across the state. new roads and bridges. new mass transit. new business friendly environment. new lower taxes. and new university partnerships to grow the businesses of tomorrow today. learn more at esd.ny.gov what?pony neighing] hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. john at the telestrator as usual with unusual options activity. doc, you want to kick it off with a retarial. >> it is macy's. giving you two of them today. retailer, macy's, they started buying may 30 calls aggressively. this is the year to date graph. take a look at what the normal activity has been b in these calls. next to nothing. you look at this, there it is over here. about 500 contracts a day. all of a sudden, trades nearly 9,000 contracts. tells us something might be happening between now and next friday, judge. i'll probably be in these calls which i bought today, by the middle of next week, i'll probably be out. that's a big bet that macy's trades through or at least to $30 very quickly like that. >> yep, how about fcs. >> here's a yore to date there. it piqued just shy of 18 bucks a share. here it is at 11.80 today. they're much longer dated. buying them out in january, so not short-term, long-term calls. january's traded about 22,000 of those. at the 14 strike, $2 higher than where the stock is. i paugt these, but didn't buy january's, i bought calls and set myself up for it to rise over the next couple of months. >> back to macy's for a minute, ian, who's frequently on the show, reminding me they report earnings on thursday morning. >> right. that's why i say at the longest, depending how the reaction of the earnings, i'm probably going to be out by the middle of next week, but they didn't just buy the short dated calls for that quick earnings pop. that's why i'm going to hold them and see if something else might be happening. >> thanks, come on back. >> sue now has the latest news headlines for us. >> i do. thank you, scott. and here's what's happening at the hour, everyone. barack obama receiving a warm welcome in milan. there to deliver a speech on food security and the environment. it is his first foreign public event since leaving office. target has plans to test a next day household essentials home delivery service this summer in minneapolis. the order will be packaged at a nearby store allowing it to fulfill orders placed by 1:pau 30 p.m. by the next business day. jimmy kimmel returning to the air a week after his em passioned words about his newborn son's health care crisis and the american health care system. he says the majority of the reaction was positive and gave an update on his son's condition. >> first, i want to tell because so many people have asked, our son is doing very well. he's getting bigger, sleep iing well. he can read now, which they say is unusual. >> and we continue to wish him well. that's news update this hour. now, to brian sullivan with what's coming up on "power lunch." >> that is great news. our best to the kimmel family as well. a must see two hours of "power lunch" coming up. we are going to go one-on-one with lloyd blankfein. we are going to talk the market, deregulation under trump, tax reform and more. also with us, home depot cofounder, arthur blank. he's expanding his bet on the future of golf. we're going to get his take on the future of retail and we'll do a check on valiant pharmaceuticals. tim picked up the stock in our draft. it is soaring today. we're going to get his take. that's all ahead, but more of the halftime report right after this. trz trz meta appetite control... it's your glass of willpower that helps keep cravings... ...far, far away. feel less hungry with the natural fiber in clinically... ...proven meta appetite control. from metamucil. . we're back every year at the sohn conference. every year, up and comers get the opportunity to present their ideas as part of the srk ohn idea contest. dylan is a wharton business student and is the winner of this year's contest who prese presented his pitch. you're an undergrad in a competition of mostly professionals and mbas. >> yeah. >> makes it even more spectacular. >> it was an excellent opportunity and really cool to be there with so many professionals, people i've looked up to for so many years then get to stand there on the stage where they have been just presenting. truly once in a lifetime chance. >> you beat out several hundred people. he seemed enthusiastic. what was your whole feeling when you were up there with him? >> an excellent feeling, but a whirlwind. he just told us about it about five minutes before i walked so, i i met with ion horp, who told me i won, then walked me down to be miked up not a lot of time to prepare. >> no pressure there. it's a pair -- it implies p pay pal is short. about $1 billion in earnings starting in 2020 in perpetuity. >> i wanted to point out, i was in the audience and everyone was like very into the idea. like people were not scroll iin through their phone. give you a ton of credit. it's so hard the to come out on a stang like that. thousands of people and b lib you said, the most respected people in the industry, but you didn't seem nervous at all. you made a very compelling case. i wanted to ask you about ebay. why do you think this thing gets so little attention? is it because the revenue growth isn't there or do you think it's because maybe the paypal spin off and who that was a better deal for muddles the issue for say the casual analysts that doesn't really look closely at it. >> i think that's a good question. i cited the quote from john malone who noted that cash cow businesses like ebay don't receive the same amount of appreciation as other faster growing businesses. businesses like paypay, they're cool, sexy, everybody use iing them. when they split apart in to 2015, it was easy for people to say ebay is good, paypal is bad. it's received less attention. >> do you view the estimate as big too conservative because now, you have the funding mechanism where customers can go in and choose their own methodology. which is something unique, they did not have that prior i would believe that's going to accelerate earnings gorowth ove the next koim of years. >>. >> i think a reasonable place could be in excess of 50% long-term. it's very substantial amount. >> we didn't explain this well. your premise is that papal has this sweetheart deal with ebay, which lasts until 2020. so they have to have the payment platform on their site, 200 million users. paypal and then they lose that sweetheart deal and you're calculating how much business is going to walk out the door when ebay is automobile to do their own transactions. >> that's correct. >> would this be like when costco loses, when american express loses costco? in other words, they had that deal, obviously, you followed that as well. >> this is bigger. >> it's not 280 million. when american extress lost, that was a much smaller foot precipitation, but it impacted for 18 mobts and you're thinking this could be the same with paypal. >> one thing i think people are missing, they have a much higher take rate on ebay than they do on anything else. don't have a take rate. they're a larger revenue and they have much higher margins which comes down to about 50% earnings. that's not the speculation of a 20-year-old. that was confirmed by management in march of 2014. >> does am sop worry you? they are somewhat interconnected in that they have dollars to spend. they're getting such great dollars on amazon, why do they look at ebay at all? >> i think it's a good point and one that's always been raiseded about ebay. i think that's why ebay is so underappreciated today. there's no perfect explanation for why people still continue to use ebay. part of it is the auction format is a bit different. >> and collectibles. >> exactly. part of sit that it offers a better opportunity for seller, not just for buyer, where sellers often prefer to go to ebay. they don't necessarily compete with those sellers in trying to sell products the way amazon had done in the past with diapers an diapers.com as well as toys "r" us. so there's a better opportunity for sellers on obey, which makes a lot of them choose that. >> you also think ebay is recession proof. >> i mention classified as being recession proof. >> i think ebay has a lot less volatility. >> what do you want to do? be a hedge fund money manager? >> he wants to be on the halftime report. >> this is actually what i aspire to in life. i can retire with happiness at 20 years old. >> be good. >> are you actively in the market right now? you trading? >> i do trade a little bit. everything that's left over after tuition. >> if you you know, i guess you have to be prepared for some sort of scrutiny on your ideas if you are going to the real world as an investor. jim cramer, i'm going to read you what he tweeted about shorting pay pal. >> i can take a guess. >> he said, ouch, good luck. met them last week and numbers are smoking. dan schule mann is a great ceo. you want to have a debate? >> if he wants to come on live right u no, i'd leadoff to talk with him. >> he might come walking out. >> i did come him to come out. see if he comes out from behind the curtain. have you thought about what you want to do when you get out of school? >> i've given a little thought and long-term, i see myself going into a hedge fund. not sure exactly where in the capital structure is most interesting, but again, i'm only 20 years old. i've got a lot of time to think about this. lons time, i see myself in finance. >> you're going to stay because jim cramer is coming out. we'll be right back, jim cramer, debating who knows what else. >> thunder dome. >>hunder dome. usaa gives me the peace of mind >>hunder dome. and the security just like the marines did. the process through usaa is so effortless, that you feel like you're a part of the family. i love that i can pass the membership to my children. we're the williams family, and we're usaa members for life. i count on my dell small for tech advice. with one phone call, i get products that suit my needs and i get back to business. ♪ ♪ what are you doing? getting your quarter back. fountains don't earn interest, david. you know i work at ally. i was being romantic. you know what i find romantic? a robust annual percentage yield that's what i find romantic. this is literally throwing your money away. i think it's over there. that way? yeah, a little further up. what year was that quarter? what year is that one? '98 that's the one. you got it! nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it right. let's get out of that water. jim cramer joining us now. dylan aid l man with us as well. he was the sohn contest winner. we saw your tweet. >> look, i met with dan and you know, candidate i think you mad presentation. i don't want to refute it so much as just to say i think paypal doing well and perhaps it's not a great short. i think ebay is an undervalued company. i afwree it doesn't get the create a lot of people feel it will be zroid by amazon. i think the last two quarters demonstrated better number ofs, just to get the total payment volume for paypay, was 99 billion. they have 19% for mutual growth, which is really pretty great. big revenues. everyone's trying to write these guys off. there have been so many people who have been, jean had a sell, all that's happened over and over again is that he's foileded. dan has foiled the bears, wells fargo was supposed to wipe him out, no. mastercard, no, mastercard is the partner. all that i keep seeing is is that he keeps broadening his effort and has a lot more pals and friends in the payment processing business, so ipg that what you could run into is huge amount of free cash flow, which we know. $5 a million buy back. a guy that has tremendous momentum in a business he was supposed to be wiped out in. apple pay was the last big challenge, so i just say look, let's be careful on the short side. 2020 solution, he may outgrow everybody in the interim because i think he is the millennial credit card. i think it's a bit of a stretch to bet against the guy and think you'll be covered by ebay. >> yeah, so i think you make a lot of really good points there and i agree that dan, excellent qeo and that the nonebay half of the business is one that's growing phenomly. seeing things like brain tree or venmo. >> he's not charging for venmo yet. >> exactly. but it comprises a pretty substantial portion of total payment volume is something we can look at and see while ebay is about 17% of the total payment volume, it is a much higher take rate than most of the payment. >> why do you think he's going to lose a lot of that? >> because the way the contract with ebay is sfruktured, it allows ebay as early as 2020 to go out on its create a record processing system in house. >> it's not a great business for them. it's like why alibaba doesn't want to do it. they have another division that does it. they don't really like this. >> sure. but the important thing is they make all of the money from it. that 2% or so multiplied by gross merchandise volume flows back to them instead of out the door to pay pal. >> you have three years of which this company is really smoking. and then when you get to 2020 you're hoping that they develop. you're hoping. >> do you like the ebay long? >> i think it's not as good -- i think i'd rather be, if i had my druthers, i would flip it. it's just not growing that much. >> so, jim, you didn't buy into my argument this is like when american he can press lost co costco? >> that was a terrible move by american expression express. it was the most material thing that could happen to american express. look at what visa has done and costco and citi. no. i was reluctant to come out. i just like hearing you. i want to encourage you. i didn't want to come out and say, listen, i think it's a dumb idea. it's not. i think it's great that you're here. i didn't even for a minute want to discourage by saying this is a bad idea because it's not. it's a thoughtful, intellectual idea. >> not only do i think you didn't do what you feared would happen, i think the kid held his own, too. >> totally. and i think all that i'm saying is by the time we get there, it won't be a factor. but i felt that intellectually you hit it out of the park and i thought it was great. >> jim, thanks for coming out. thanks for being such a great sport. we wish you all the best. >> congratulate job. congratulations. >> wharton business student, the winner of the sohn contest. >> not howard hughes? >> nope. nope. no. hey. pass please. i'm here to fix the elevator. nothing's wrong with the elevator. right. but you want to fix it. right. so who sent you? new guy. what new guy? watson. my analysis of sensor and maintenance data indicates elevator 3 will malfunction in 2 days. there you go. you still need a pass. welcome back to "the halftime report." i'm jackie deangelis. we are looking at cop earp today edging higher after falling to four-month lows and trying to recover from a 5% loss in the last week. that's largely due to manufacturing weakness coming out of china. we can't talk about copper right now without talking about the china theme. how do you see data impacting the metal going forward? >> well, jackie, before we talk about that, let's talk about what copper up to the levels it was at. that was after trump was elected. a trillion dollar stimulus plan. it has pushed back to the wayside with health care and tax reform taking center stage. copper has come off. you mentioned the pmi data out of china. it was terrible, and that added to the slide, too. when you're not talking about a trillion dollar stimulus plan into this, i'm not surprised we're lower. >> scott, you're taking a look at the charts, the levels, what are the key points to watch? >> you're right with the 30% drop in april driving those imports to the lowest level in six months, that is really a queasy chart and with the pmi data out of china, they're not going it to get any relief soon. >> all right. today on "futures now" a packed show for you. we are joined by sven henrich. plussance it's yo amoroso to talk opec and all things crude oil all at the top of the hour. this is where i trade andrs. manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. ♪ ♪ i'm dr. kelsey mcneely and some day you might be calling me an energy farmer. ♪ energy lives here. i count on my dell small for tech advice. with one phone call, i get products that suit my needs and i get back to business. ♪ ♪ looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock. back on "the halftime report." disney earnings after the bell, let's stake our positions, joe. >> disney could fall back but in the long term think about the film studio in 2019, "star wars," "frozen," "the lion king." >> sideways trade today heading into the numbers. how do you see it? >> i'm long, staying long, disney. still in it. >> i think it's going to come in and if you don't currently own the stock it will be a great opportunity. i'm not in disney. i wish i were. i missed it last december buying other thing. >> on the closing bell don't miss that interview with mr. iger the ceo of disney. kkr. >> long, i'll take the stand on retail. >> disney, pick your spot. >> afl, aflac, bought it. >> perfect ending. >> amazon unveiling a new echo with a touch screen. it can, by the way, be used to make video calls. alexa, are you invading my privacy? another back eye for the bruised and battered airline industry. a brawl involving spirit airway. supermodel christie burns turning her attention to health care and childbirth. she will join us live this hour. 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