Doubt a very tense capitol hill, where Kayla Tausche is standing by ahead of the Health Care Vote. Kayla . Brian, House Republican leadership are rushing back and forth, scurrying about with a lot of prescheduled items on the calendar. But, just a few moments ago, the House Majority leader was shrined by reporters here in the hallway and asked three separate times if he was committed to bringing this Health Care Bill to the floor for a vote, regardless of whether it looked like there was enough support for it to pass. His answer was, why are you guys always so negative . He didnt answer the question straight on. Reporters kept asking and he just accused the press of being negative and only focusing on the negative. Thats important, because this vote is supposed to take place in a number of hours. Nonetheless, republicans are still trying to coalesce the support that is needed to actually have this passed. And one more thing that might be important to the market, is mccarthy was asked what lessons he would have learned going into tax reform, and he said that he has learned that once we get through this, tax reform will be easier. So thats interesting. But people are still wondering what the Freedom Caucus will do, whether they will be voting in support of this. Mark sanford, the congressman from South Carolina says hes still struggling with how to lower costs. And we also spoke with congressman from arizona, trent frank, a member of the Freedom Caucus. He said he was undeclared for exactly how he would vote, but he did send some signals that he would potentially vote for it. He said theyre trying to get the full bill that they wanted through the senate, would be like putting a camel through the eye of the needle, using that biblical parable. I believe we have a sound bite from the congressman. Instead, well play that for you later. But he did say that he was optimistic and that he hoped that his colleagues would do, in his words, the right thing. Guys . All right, kayla, thank you very much. Lets bring this together and bring this back, importantly, to the cnbc audience. Pete najarian, no doubt health care is an important vote. Its an important vote for america. Its an important vote for millions of people who rely on health care, and maybe need their health care or need it changed. But for the market perspective, what do you think is the key . Is this really that important . I think its important enough that if there is if they cant get this passed, i think we do get a selloff. And i think as we discussed yesterday on here, i think it creates an opportunity. I think its a great opportunity, because then you look down the line, and Steve Mnuchins been out there all day long talking about exactly what he thinks is most important, tax reform. He think that gets done by august when they go into recess. So when you look ahead, that, i think, is a far bigger catalyst for us going forward. And i still think, and i agree with larry ckudlow. He was on last night and was talking about, they probably took the wrong path going for health care first. Why not start with tax reform because they said thats what they were going to do. They should have put that second they boxed themselves in. But are the marketed boxed in by this . Yes, but only temporarily, brian. This to me will have the same effect as the brexit or even the election itself if they fail to pass this. Youll get a selloff, it will be shortlived. Why . Because theres a lot of cash on the shrineidelines. Brian, sometimes i feel like i live in an alternate universe. If i had told you a year from now that we would have a week in which the s p declines by 1 and the president of the United States and his closest advisers were being investigated by the fbi for possible treason, you would say, this is the strongest, most resilient market i have ever heard of can we possibly have that . And thats exactly what we have going on right now. Banks came in with yields, fine. Xlf down 3 this week. No big deal. S p down, just about 1 . Look around the world. Europe is flat this week. The eem, emerging markets is up 1 . If youre an investor right now, its like an alternate rally to hear about all of this consternation. Lets bring it back to this universe. Which the reality is, to joshs point, 9 of the 11 s p sectors have had earnings revisions up in the last couple of weeks. The job market is strong. Theres a growing line of thinking that maybe nothing happening is actually the best outcome of all, because why throw sort of a grenade in what is a strong market and strong economy. Whats your view. No doubt that the macro backdrop, the profit backdrop, its positive. Its constructive. So i think that markets, you know, will remain sort of supportive. I will agree in the shortterm, we could see some pockets of weakness, but weve sort of held a cautious view. But i think as you go into the second half of the year, we need to see what happens on the tax side. I would agree there is more upside to the market. Do you feel like this vote is that crucial to the market . I think marginally, marginally. Why only marginally . I think its more of a sentiment play. How does the Investor Base react . If it doesnt pass through, do people then start questioning the administration or capability . But i think, again, its only heres another way to look at it. The best possible think that could happen is this terrible bill fails and they go fullbore into tax because theyre that much more desperate to get something done. So maybe the best possible thing that could happen for the president , for the country, for sentiment, for people in the marketplace is to say, they gave this a shot. Trump wont even put his name on it. This guy will put his name on steak. So now they need a win, republicans need a win, not just the trump administration, and they need to come togethering on something, and tax policy, much easier to do. So maybe it speeds that up. Can i keep this really simple . No, i want it complex. The audience is capable of understanding the complexities of your mind. We dont have to do it. It is this simple. We have an incredibly strong labor market. It is really, really strong, and thats whats going to propel this economy further. The markets may have a hiccoup if this bill doesnt pass. You have strong labor market and wage growth. Thats what i referred to. We said, there are whispers out there, that as important as the trump agenda may be, in some ways, the market folks, theyre sort of whispering, maybe nothing gets done josh, you brought up a great question or great point about, nobody is paying attention to, you are calling it, right, its treason. If this were 16th century dpl d england, there would be heads rolling at this point in time. The reason the markets doesnt care is because of the economic strength that underlies this. That could change really fast. One thing i think that is important that maybe we havent brought up yet is this just this general idea that there are other things happening that, you know, take a look at yields, for examp example. Were bonds supposed to go up . Was the dollar supposed to fall . Well get to that i promise a little bit later on in the show. Pete, you alluded to it earlier. Today, Steven Mnuchin was asked about the timeline for congressional approval. Heres what he said. Youve famously said that we would have tax reform by congress august recess. Is that still the case . I would like to think so. What ive said all along is, this is optimistic, okay . This is a big challenge. But were going to try to get it done on that period of time. And if we dont, well get it done right afterwards. Its a big priority. Cnbcs chief washington correspondent, john harwood, joining us now. John, treasury secretary sounding reasonably optimistic. What are you hearing . First of all, let me just say, i think josh just sunk a couple of threepointers from downtown in that discussion earlier. I think he is correct that the markets and the economy are quite resilient. Its not all about washington and what happens day to day in washington. And secondly, i think if health care goes down today, which theres a pretty good chance it will. Not predicting that, but it is in deep trouble at this moment, i do think that will increase the zeal to come together on a tax plan. Do i think it will happen by the august recess . No, i dont. Tax reform is very difficult. It, obviously, depends on how broad it is. It is if its individual plus corporate, no chance of getting it done by august, but if its just a Corporate Tax reform, which is what i think generates the greatest interest among republicans on capitol hill, i think that is an item that whatever happens on health care reform, that has considerably better than 50 50 odds to pass. It will not cut rates down to 20 or 15 , as trump or paul ryan have discussed. I think the senate is going to resist a border adjustment task, which gets those rates down lower. But i think theres a pretty substantial consensus within the Republican Party on doing this. I think theyll get it done this year. But john, yes or no, based on the people youre talking to, is health care a proxy for the other stuff that the president wants to do, in particular, like you said, tax reform, but also infrastructure . If health care fails, does that mean the party is fractured and the other stuff will fail, too . Only partly. Look, the party is fractured, yes. Full stop, no question about it. But health care is an extraordinarily difficult issue. Thats why it took democrats 50 years, 60 years to Pass Health Care reform. If you undo it and try to lay a new Health Care System on top of it, which republicans are trying to do very quickly, when many of them are small Government Conservatives who dont really believe there should be a National Health care program. So theres zero enthusiasm within the Republican Caucus for this bill. They dont like obamacare, they dont like obama, but there is zero enthusiasm for this bill. Tax reform is an entirely different thing. Theres tons of enthusiasm for it. Theres a lot of Corporate Support for it. And theres some democratic support for it, too. So that all of those things, i think, separate the Health Debate from the tax debate. Infrastructure is more complicated. I think infrastructure would be shown to be more difficult, because of health cares failure, but not tax reform. All right. John harwood, i have a feeling were going to see you much more through the day, just sort of a thought by me, john. Thank you very much. By the way, some breaking news right now, as all of this shakes out. Just getting word that Speaker Paul Ryan is on his way to the white house right now. Again, discussions continue with the gop, their offshoot, the Freedom Caucus, and the president. Any headlines come out, of course, you will know first, dear cnbc viewer. Guys, lets go around and trade this any way we can. Pete, lets take infrastructure, for example. These stocks have had huge runs. Some of them have doubled. Right. The market hasnt sold them off. The market is saying, eh, if this fails theyre still going to get these other things done its likely and maybe more likely and i would agree with them. And they would be much more aggressive. And i think thats why we talked about the idea that he went after health care first, that was the mistake. He should have started with tax reform, started moving towards repatriation, all of the things weve talked about that really are going to be a stimulant when you really think about the economy itself. I think Corporate Tax rate being competitive, thats what mnuchin was talking about, and you heard harwood there just talking about, well, is he the going to go after corporate or more than that . I think the focus is on exactly that. The Corporate Tax rate being competitive. That if they stick to that, theyll get that done by august. I think theres a little bit of a misconception right now that the market is so frothy and hyped up about trumps agenda and so that the risk is, if it doesnt go through, theres going to be huge disappointment. If you actually look at small caps, a great example, these would be the companies that are going to arguably get the most benefit from the trump agenda. Theyre domestically focused, financed here in the u. S. , et cetera. Then why have they been selling . Heres my point. Theyve been underperforming all year. The worst performing of the major index this year . They went wild last year, but since the beginning of this year, they have not been leading. I dont know how hyped up the market is about trumps agenda. If you actually look at the winning stocks, the leaders, its two names, its apple, its amazon, its netflix. Its tech. But big tech. And growth. So i dont know that were set up for disappointment, necessarily, because of healthcare going through today or not going through at all. I agree. I think fair market for the value, extrump and exreforms is 23, 23. 50. Were basically talking about 8 upside in growth. A lot of this is coming from upside and energy, but its a positive. Ill give you a chance to come right after us, the media. Dont point at me najarian. Youre one of them and i pointed a firnger at myself. Its fine the point im right to make, a lot of discussion about this, almost an obsession about this, but the market is always going to kind of do what it wants. We know that. The market is an unfeeling, uncaring machine. Do you think no matter what happens in d. C. , were going to be okay from the upside . I know your targets not that higher than we are now, but it sounds like youre relatively optimistic. I think optimistic, constructive, yes. But for more upside on a margin, you do need to see progress in d. C. , to see significant upside. So let me frame it a different way and tell me if this is the right way to say it, then. Youre cautiously optimistic were going to be okay, but if we get some of these things done, its the icing. The cake is baked, were okay. This would be the icing, but were not doomed if it doesnt happen. Yes. Is that fair . I am optimistically cautious. Im not sure if thats quite the same thing. As cautiously optimistic a close cousin. Second cousin twice removed that nobody likes. And weve been talking about this reflation trade. This time around, its not just the u. S. , right . Were getting more and more evidence that the progress is coming from abroad. Europe, youre seeing a lot of good data coming out. Emerging markets. Again can i puncture one balloon, which is this infrastructure bill. 1 trillion over 10 years well, there is no bill right now, jim. No bill. Youre correct, but the proposal. The one im focused on and ive heard the most is 1 trillion over ten years is 100 billion a year. Thats meaningless for infrastructure stocks. At least half of that will go to services. It will go to small contractors, it will go to environmental consultants, things like that. You get down to 50 billion a year, that gets spread out over the entire infrastructure, basic materials, construction equipment, thats not going to weve got to go to break, but on infrastructure, too, jim, theres a lot of programs out there to benefit public housing. Trump wants to rebuild the inner cities and there are programs that are not getting any attention. That would be a good thing. Thats for a different segment. Maybe on power lunch. Hes always plugging. For Halftime Report, heres whats coming up a big day for the blitz. On the agenda, the next level for the iphone. And microns jump. And a twitter subscription fee. And also coming up, debating some beaten down energy names. And all next week, the halftime quarterly report. How have our traders done so far this year. Were talking about wins and losses, success and regret, all next week on the Halftime Report. Can i get some help. Watch his head. Im so happy. Whatever they went through, they went through together. Welcome guys. Life well planned. See what a Raymond JamesFinancial Advisor can do for you. Only one component president cnbc iq 100 hitting a multiyear high. Thats micron after yesterdays earnings report. The cnbc iq 100 is up 28. 5 in the last year. For more on the cnbc iq 100, go to cnbc. Com iiq100. Weve lost 50 points in a matter of minutes. The thinking is this. As we reported, Speaker Paul Ryan, a few moments ago, headed to the white house. There was a line of thinking that perhaps paul ryan is going to tell the president that they simply do not have the votes on the gop side to get this done. Either way, again, a lot of things happening. Its very fluid out of washington, d. C. , but you can see the market, at least in the shortterm, despite what all weve talked about, the market is very focused on this vote. Guys, can we bring up an intraday clatter of the dow . I want to show specifically, how when it came out that maybe this is whats going on. Again, maybe this is whats going on, reported by some in d. C. , were seeing on the farright side, the market is saying, okay, if you dont have the votes, were going to sell stocks at least for now. Lets hit our trader blitz. First up, apple. Sort of, kind of downgraded. I say that because it was downgraded from a strong buy to a buy at need hamm. So and remains a top pick. They still like it, but like it less. Like it a lot. Love it, but kind of love it. Theyve kind of pushed a little bit aside, because theyre smart. They have the strong buy on it. Stocks hitting 52week highs. It was at 42, now a 41. It remains the top pick. Heres the interesting part of this upgrade or downgrade. That says a lot about what they really think within apple. Analyst laura martin, one of the best in the business. Next up, micron. The stock soaring after earnings beat. They posted strong guidance, but jim, this has been a heartbreak stock for years for a lot of people. Yeah, if you have any gray hair, you definitely recognize, this is a cyclical stock. However, it is clearly in the upturned portion of the cycle. Why do i say that . Specifically, because pricing is going up. And that was a strong component of why they beat and guided higher. That seems to continu