On washington. I see Companies Like mcdonalds, everybody hates it, stocks now up three. Ibm reports a quarter. Everyone says forget that. Stock then has a very big run. Dominos reports forget dominos. Its done. Moves up. We see these Tech Companies come back. Nvidia was at 117 when the year ended. Then it gets slammed down to 102 and now its all the way back. These are not necessarily stocks associated with trump. So, yes, if you have Certain Companies that you think were just you really wanted them to do well because you thought that more people would go out to dinner, shop. Inflation. You think theres too much emphasis on the president . Its easy. Such ab easy thing to do. Rather than earnings . Who wants to read the Conference Calls . Im reading the visa my wife said would you come down and help . Were making pizza bombs here. Pizza bombs . Got i love those. That was good. Pizza bombs. The bombs were dynamite, man. They were like tnt. Not until the next day, though, right . We need to keep pizza bombs out of this country. True. I hadnt even thought of that. Build a wall. Its too easy to talk about. I dont have to do any homework. Talk about the president. Goldman, on this point, goldman puts out a new note. Cautious, negative or maybe more so than theyve been. Gary cohn. This person hated cohn when he was at goldman. Its time to be more cautious because Obamacare Repeal does not bode well for reaching a quick agreement on tax reform or infrastructure funding and reinforces goldmans view that fiscal boost. Number two, polarizing as ever. Number three, the president is likely to follow through on Campaign Promises of trade and immigration, some of which could be disruptive for markets and the economy. I always felt it was 2018. Analyst reports, you got to look through the valley of 2017 for whats out there in 2018. This is not as a negative piece as i thought as just saying, listen, the guy comes in and he is really breaking a lot of eggs. And theres an oml lomlette dow there somewhere. The market has already made the fritatta, right . Now its time to make a pizza bomb. Time to figure out if you have the things to make it all work. Look, i admit that when i look at the border tax, its like, wow that is just if they can get that through, who the heck knows what that is. Aca no longer going to be done. Did anyone think it was going to be like that . Theres a lot of like that when it comes to regulation. He has been in office a long time already, though, right . A couple of years. Nothing has happened yet. Nothing has happened. Been there a couple of weeks . Thats what im saying. This goldman guy. Of course theres a backlash. This is the fastest that anyone has ever acted in history. Who is ready for this stuff . Swivel from what he does. Youre alarmed because the tenyear is 2. 43 and retail actually stinks. If youre thinking and looking at all these policies we talked about this four weeks ago, im an example. I tried trade the macro. Trading the macro is the wrong strategy. Economic uncertainty, policy uncertainty. Thats not being transferred into the marketplace and creating a trend or direction that traders can establish. What the focus has to be, jim talks about earnings. Its got to be stock specific. Its got to be a sector. Financials got hot again last week at the end of the week. For whatever the reason might be. They got hot again. Momentum is back in them. Place of opportunity. Whatever the reason might be, the president started talking about dodd frank. After all the noise, hes started talking about the stuff thats pushed stocks higher. Sit there and analyze the possibilities regarding dodd frank and youll talk yourself out of the stocks. No. All i want is bigger return to capital, higher interest rates. Thats the problem. Got to have higher rates. You cant have any dovish talk. And ive got to tell you, people are really underestimating what you can do if you run the ftc, the fda, the nlr bchb, the ener Protection Agency which, honestly have you seen what these guys do . Deregulate everything. Remember when the army corps of engineers thought it was a bad idea . Then like its a good idea. This atlantic sunrise pipeline, lets jam that through. There are things that could be done. Anyone who has ever worked at a bank, there are regulators and compliance people who like, listen, im going to get you. Then the regulators and compliance people take long lunches. If its okay. Why . Theyll take a long lunch. Go take up your ninehour lunch. They come in today. Hey, im a regulator. I dont work today. Why is energy down 3 year to date if you have a we have too much energy. Energy positive president . Too much energy. 300,000 barrels that we didnt think. U. S. Is a swing producer. Were producing left and right. The count was up again last week, judge. Yeah. 19 Something Like that. Wont quit. These are bigger numbers as you get the possibility, also, that well get increased production out of iran. Even with sanctions. I like oil but the recounts should be up. Crude oil is 100 higher right now than it was a year ago at this time. Why on earth would the rate count be flat or down . This is the reason to go by williams, wpz. Im a kmi guy. Here is the problem with kmi. In the end, they have a lot of projects that are projects that roll over, may not pan out. Look, i think that the momentum the force is with them but its still dealing with amj is another area where you can play these pipeline. Imagine ellmagellan mid stre. It is a federally regulated group. They can sue them on a local level. The momentum is with pipeline. Should you be buying the post election laggards or things that work . Energy is a drag, health care has been a drag relative to other outperformers like financials, materials. How about buying based on what we already know . Jim was talking about at the top, you know the facts. Going through earning season, jp morgan, apple, technology, microsoft. Those are the names that have already proven to us what theyre doing right now. Forget trump and the other stuff. Those are the facts that we have. Right. Obviously thats the backdrop, trump and what might happen. Theres a bigger story here, though. Theres a bigger story here. Joe alluded to it before. The people trading on, quote, unquote, trump stuff since the beginning of this year are massively underperforming because theyre focused on the things that are lagging. S p is up 2. 5 this year. Take a look at emerging markets. Major index is up 8 . Some countries are up substantially more than that. Were talking about after five weeks. Take a look at europe outperforming the s p, believe it or not. Take a look at small caps, doing quadruple the s p. These are areas where if youre focused on oh, hes tweeting again. What does this mean for dodd frank, blah, blah, blah . Youre missing the bigger picture. The world is breaking out. How about more pizza bomb action . Im going to give you the im going to give you the one that i thought i am doing the work order right now. Pizza bomb. Are you ready . Okay. You went this, you went that. Ill give you maybe earn the same premium in Northern European banks but i dont hate it. You dont hate it . All right. Judge, how about this . Not an endorsement, though. You can buy the french stuff, german stuff. This is not passing two straight downs with where youre getting a matt ryan field goal . This is better than that . What could be better than that . Everyone is saying, oh, buy the banks because were going to deregulate. Banks havent done anything since the first week of december. Look at tech. Look at the cues. These are not trump trades. The cues are up 6. 5 , triple return and these Companies Just signed a letter this morning, legal brief, 97 Tech Companies going against the trump agenda. Off the facts and what was reported to them. These are working then they are anti we know the facts, the numbers that apple puts out there. Everybody wants these folks, all these negatives. When we get the reports and read through the numbers theyve been phenomenal. Joshs point, though, wait a second. There is the unexpected happening here globally. And economies in europe are improving dramatically. In asia a lot of manufacturing numbers are surprisingly coming around with currencies that were depreciating significantly. Theyre kind of playing catch up to get right in. I think thats a little bit of a better story that allows for the whole global asset picture to recover. I think thats kind of whats going on here. Judge, you look at volatility in europe and josh correctly calls, yes, theyre outperforming right now. Four major elections are coming up. Netherlands, france and france has two, of course, april and may. Then youve got italy and germany. Its not just what the president of the United States says. Its what miss lepenz says as well when she says were going to be out of the euro. You guys vote for me, were out of the euro. Have you to listen to that. Whether its the guy in the netherlands or merkel or whoever the competition is that lines up against her, its not just wh President Trump says. Youre right but if you went to cash before brexit or before the u. S. Election, man, did you miss maybe one of the biggest rallies of our lifetime. Deutsche bank. How many bad things can they throw Deutsche Bank . Im waiting for the rights offer. Where is it . Yep. Canary in the coal mine, jim. Tony dwyer is the chief market strategist. He says a correction is coming and if it happens you should buy the dip. Tony, you were on with us a week or so again, talked about the 4 to 7 correction but why do you think its going to happen . Maybe youre looking at the wrong thing. The conversation on the desk i really love the way that jim says bank sitting here in the room its awesome. This whole thing is not about trump. I totally agree with what joe, josh and the group are saying. This rally, i dont think, is about trump. We upgraded the market prior to the election because the Global Economy was accelerating. Germany factory orders, 2. 5 year high. The monetary stimulus globally is finally working its way through the system, especially the corporate ecb purchases of corporate bonds. What a big deal that was by injecting money into the system thats not bank driven. The Global Economy, based on the global pmis, Global Services pmis, surprise indices youre listing all these reasons that one would say then why are you building it up only to say theres a 4 to 7 correction coming . Youre making the case to underpinnings, not just the trump driven rally. Correct. If i dont convince you of that before a tactical correction, everybody not everybody. Many people tend to derisk as the market pulls back. I want to rerisk. As jim says, the earnings are terrific. Dollar has been weaker, margins are going up. Top line is beating. Chinas getting better. All these economies are doing well. What does that mean . The fed is not the fed is stated in their median forecast is three increases this year. Street is looking for two increases this year with a low probability in march. Our call is that theyre not factoring in enough of a more hawkish fed. Once thats factored in you get a 4 to 7 correction of extreme overbought condition on the indicators we use and youve got to own it. Thats when youve got to own it. You dont want to up your risk when all this stuff is overbought. As josh said had such a move off that election period. I want to be offensive as the market is coming down. You cant do that if youre already offensive. So as ive advised on the show a week ago if im a hedge fund i want to cut back my exposure. The greatest action to take to prepare for that correction versus get whip sawed. Heres cramer. Toney one thing i see is every time a sector goes down, people are so anxious to buy it, how do we get down that much . You know, aca, ill repeal that. That should have been horrible for the hospitals. People come in. Down two points, they buy hospital stocks. Bristolmyers, go buy bristolmyers. Remember the big cap pharma . Lily, merck, they love them. Every time we come in, theres these guys with baskets waiting. Jim, back when you worked at your fund and i would talk to you then, we know that corrections are only natural, normal and healthy until you get them. Everybody says theyre a buyer. Take the tape down 2 , 3 , theyre being forced to derisk even though they may not want to and they say they want to buy weakness. Typically it comes out of nowhere. People often ask us whats going to cause this correction . If it was something that was predictable by definition, nobody would sell it. Its something that comes out of nowhere that creates a fundamental perception change. Typically associated with a fed and ultimately a recession. You know, i think the most important part of this call is that, yes, we may get a sharp correction. I would be neutralized ahead of that. Until you invert the yield curve that wont even happen based on the forecast until mid 19. Your mean inversion is 15 months. Were talking about no recession until 2020. There are still a couple of years ahead when you can get giddy up. Now youre speaking petes language. Tony, you are the man. Ill tell you what. Bank of santer. Do you think hes right before we let him go, pete . He sounds interestingly bearish. The magnitude that he says . Dont confuse it with being bearish. Its not bearish. Right. There are some areas certain areas that will probably have that pull back but other areas that have absolutely room for the upside in a big way, big way. Financials being the leader. I love tony. I dont think saying the markets could pull back here is particularly profound. I dont think he thinks it is either. Anyone can say that at any time and its probably true. If you are an investor with a strategy and, like tony, you believe that theres more value to buying on the way down than on the way up, you might have your opportunity and tony will be absolutely right. Thats correct. A lot of this is a function of your timeframe. But its a function of conviction. Oh, no, im dead. Hey, judge, this is a function of conviction, okay . So this call isnt its an idiot call. Everybody could say its going to pull back. Its like the strategist hedge. The problem becomes when the market pulls back, people tend to change their mind on the perception its a fundamental change. The problem isnt calling for a correction now. Anybody can do that. Its what to do with it. Its deciding now what actions you will take, which stocks are on your watch list when you will pull the trigger. Its making the decision now with a sub 12 when were all chillin. Thats right. The hard part is in the heat of the moment if youre first coming up with your game plan you will lose. 100 right. I think youre spot on. Tony, thanks. Appreciate it as always. Have a great day. You, too, tony dwyer. Here is what else is coming up on the half time report. Airlines are in play. Put all your clients in it. You have to make sure you back the right plane. One analyst is making some calls today. Should you get on board . Plus, facebook, amazon, netflix and google, with one top analyst who covers them all. Half time report with scott wapner is coming back in two minutes. 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The analyst here is not talking about 17 as much as the focus on 18 in terms of american and dealta. Thats the interesting part of this, judge. This bullpack back, you can always point to those valuations and all those things. Jim brings up an interesting point, International Aspect of it. Southwest, jetblue, obviously hawaiian is a totally different bird. Youve been a holder of the bigger guy. Yes. The ones with the international exposure. I have. Matter of fact, i have some american right now. Maybe the president comes out and says, listen, i dont like the way these International Carriers are cutting look i think hes on the side of our airlines. I think he is, too. Because theyre getting beat up by the guys oversea. Right. The president , if you think hes pro american, which certainly he is, he will be working for american airline. I agree with that. Youll get a strong paying too much for your planes. Maybe boeing needs that stock is teflon. When the travel ban went into effect and american, delta and all these fell so severely, we were talking about this is an opportunity. This puts you right in the drivers seat to take advantage of it. Because whether it was 27th or 28th when the stocks reopened after that weekend, you were able to pick up american that was a 50 stock for 44 or 43 and change. Its back to 45, making 82cent rally today. A lot more in the tank i think. Those outages every the outages, the stocks trade down. Yep. Which seems to be happening more and more often, right . I dont know. The delta one. Last week. These are the toughest Technology Systems in the world make these things work. Also want to remind you, coming up tomorrow under armour ceo kevin plank will join me. On the show . Yep. Will he talk about the new whiskey line or might have to. Or the other line . He might have had to hit the rye after we want to talk about that liquor line. Ten downgrades since earnings, jim. And hes going to come on exclusively and talk about sort of where the company is. The state of the company. He needs to step up. That stock everybody wants to buy that stock. You just want a little more reassurance. The conference was was a good ca call. It was a good call in that it didnt really address how bad things are. Just come in, do a big buy. Dont even talk about it. Well find out. Just do it. Wouldnt that be great . Yeah. How do you stop it from dropping . What do you think . I bought a million shares. By why . Well because its cheap. Under armour liquor line will be called under table