Move. The tenyear when you see the financials and how they were trading and we have seen huge activity coming into that area. Energy today. And energy. The other day was on a monday, weve done halliburton and had baker hughes and all neighbors. All kinds of different areas in the energy space. Not just on the Services Side or on the big like the conocos and exxons, but were seeing every aspect of nfrlg right now, scott. Its really interesting. I know joe has been talking about the refiners and the great move theyve had. Weve been watching energy and continue to see energy, and that seems to be the place that people not only are just rotating to, but obviously when you look at where oil is and you look at the fall in gold, you can see some of the movements in the commodity space as well. Steve weiss, what does this mean now a couple of days ahead of a jobs report . It you got stocks on the move. Rates what happens if rates continue to move . Do stocks continue to move in that environment . I think you will see rates move. I have seen something that well have a minor flirtation with 1. 7. Weve had it. Well go higher. Everybody is looking for rates to go lower. The ecb was rumored discounted by then that theyre getting ready to hold back on their qe where, zroo thats not going to upset the stock market if rates continue to go higher . Historically, and granted, there is no playbook for this. Throughout the historic historically its the first rate hike that really cuts into the equity market. Future rate hikes dont. I think it can. However, whats happening now is you look out into Third Quarter over the last one, five, and tenyear average in terms of setting expectations low. Expectations have not been set as low for this quarter, Third Quarter, earnings announcements as they have in the past. Earnings adjust mgts have come down 2. 9 . The average 4. 6 . It doesnt sound like a lot, but it just feels like we havent set that barlow enough to exceed. I would say that weve got the market not in bubble territory in terms of equities. Bonds are still in bubble territory. Weve got to watch out. If you assume that money has to go somewhere, it will keep going to equities. Having said that, im sending in a lot of cash just waiting for the opportunity. Im not buying into this market. One being team health. Another being netflix. I dont think disney stands a chance of buying netflix. Youre looking for some event driven stuff. This really seems to be the question. Can stocks continue to rise if rates do as well . Yes. I think the important indication here is the move of the hikes and the gradual rate moves are always more positive for the market. More importantly, we need growth, and we think there is lots of growth in the market right now. Particularly within tech and health care space. What about the banks . The banks are interesting. Financials is the worst performer or was until today. Maybe just a little bit that can go right to move them higher. Doc. Well, yeah. What i agree with you on 100 on is gradual. Thats what the fed is trying to signal over and over again. Thats what they will do when they finally deliver, judge, i believe, which will be a one and done. Perhaps Something Else in 2017, but perhaps deep into 2017. Im looking for a one and done. Still december. Not in the front. Especially ahead of the election. Like i say, if the pace is that slow, i dont think it knocks us off. I wonder now if were going to get this slow melt up rather than correction that people have been looking for for the last few weeks. Tell me whats going to hand at the polls . What weve seen as the polls have moved to trump, the markets, i wouldnt say corrected, but taking on some gas. Then we come out of the debate and go despite what the trump camp says, was the winner, and the market traded higher, and the peso traded better. We still have subject to what were seeing with the president ial election, and we have to wait until the beginning of november . This is why i disagree. We are waiting for a certainty on the political front, economic front, and, yet, the markets continue to grind higher. I think this is a point in time where you need to invest in companies and stop calling the market. Im not disagreeing with that, and i think you ignore the Economic Data as well. Thats what i said in august when the weak numbers came out. Its idiocy for the fed to say the ism numbers theyre no better than any other investor if they look at those. What the ism numbers last month were bad, you could say that that was one of the major reasons why the fed sort of backed off. I think thats what they said publicly, but i think its also pure folly to assume they dont talk during intermeetings for months themselves knowing they kabts talk during the meeting because everything is on the record. When you say, hey, lets be cautious here in ermz it of the election, lets see whats happening. Thats probably what you and i both sat here and you convinced me that they were going to actually raise these rates. Right. They got a couple of data points, and those data points werent what they were expecting because they were a little more negative. They held off, so it seemed. How did they raise rates in november . How crazy is it, though, for the fed to look at one month a slow month that is usually revised significantly upward and say, hey, were not going because of august. True. It wasnt just one thing in august, for instance. What it was five different data points. The ism going beneath 50, for instance, in the contraction phase there, judge. Thats one of the big reasons. A weak jobs report didnt help. Jobs was over 100, though. Over 100 is okay. I think it was right around 150. Threemonth trends are significant to look at. You know, we have this analysis paralysis. Thats what we refer to when you are talking about it. We can over analyze this data and maybe its selective data inputs that are being used, but the fed futures right now pointing to greater than 60 chance. 61 . Of them moving higher. Your play is cyclical. You want tech. You think the economy is getting better. Even though weve had a good run in technology, you think it still has room to run. Its cyclical, but secular in nature. Theres secular tail winds within tech with the internet of things and increased connectivity. Health care. Big diseases. We havent solved them for. Select consumer constellation is a perfect example of that today. We have a lot of things to focus on, and it has to be companyspecific. Im just wondering, i think the whole thing comes back to the question of, again we thought we were going to get some kind of a correction. Now were sitting here looking at the highs of the day now. Stocks are able it move higher in the face of what has been a pretty good move in rates. In the span of a week. Last week were talking the tenyear. It was at, like, 155. Now youre at 172, 173. If that march continues to go higher, if approximate you get a better than expected jobs report, you are telling me that the stock market is going to be okay with that . Im not saying its not, but you make the case for me that it is. A lot of people think that its not. Much as i respect paul singer, and this is not directed just at paul, but obviously with delivering alpha, you were talking with mr. Singer. We had a lot of the people at delivering alpha, and it was bearish. It was across the board, judge, there wasnt an optimist in that house. Thats climbing the wall of worry then, right . Were grinding higher because there are so many negative folks out there, because there are so many people under invested and so forth. Not saying all that money has to come pouring in, but when you have all these people leaning on the short side and very shortterm short side thats the scramble that you see on days like today. Not necessarily getting long, but covering those shorts where. Even though were moving up, how about the fact that right now were looking at a market thats still in this trading range, scott. Where are we right now . Well, were pushing towards that upper end of the trading range once again. We have not broke out. Thats where we were 18 months ago. Were still in this grinding phase. You look at where volatility measures out. By the way, theyre on pace for their best day thanks to our market for two months. Weve had huge papers in these financials of late. We talked about kd paper, which is the s p in terms of thats what im talking about. Look at the thats on pace. You look at the xof and what some of the names are moving towards. I know the focus was on wells fargo, but then everybody cast aside everything else. You suddenly see the rest of the banks actually performing pretty nicely. What about if the market can hire, you have a ton of cash on the sideline, and then that market wait until that people start to chase whats actually happening . You got a few pennies. You have to put some money in there. I just think its a low return environment going forward. I just dont see a large return. Im waiting for that correction. Im waiting opportunistically. Im o. E. s and not chasing markets or some people may be forced to chase if they think of the markets going to have some kind of a run between now and the end of the year. Lets keep in mind that Hedge Fund Net exposure to the market is at the higher end. Its not at the lower end. They are playing it and the Hedge Fund Performance for all the whining has actually been pretty pretty good over the last few months. Better than long only performance, so there is participation going on there. Just going back to your point about lets make this quick. About politics, i agree with you. We should ignore it, but the facts are the market has been reacting to it, and will continue to react to it. Thats why i think you have to be a little cautious. Zroo all right. Well, another day, another move higher for twitter shares. The latest jump on reports that offers for the company could come as early as this week. Former yahoo ceo Ross Levinson thinks a deal is likely to happen. He joins us live on the phone. Welcome back. Thank you for calling in today. You bet. Nice to be here. What makes you so sure that somebody is going to bid for this asset . Well, you know, where theres smoke, theres fire. Weve heard about this for a while. I was on your air, what, two months ago. I didnt believe the company would be a Public Entity in two years. I think its coming a little sooner than maybe even i thought. Theres just way too much heat out there, and i think this company probably needs to be part of something bigger. Who do you think is most likely then to get it . Well, you know, logic says its either google or apple in my mind. I think it works for both of them. They both have market caps that are north of half a trillion dollars versus some of the other names that are being mentioned, like sales force. You know, you could say and its been said, verizon, maybe at t, but i think verizon has its hands full with yahoo, assuming that goes through. Even still combining aol into the business, so im not sure that makes sense just in terms of the integration standpoint. I would love to see it at apple, honestly. I think it would solve a big social issue they have. Same thing with google, by the way. Apple is really becoming, you know, at least on the handset, a place where more and more news gets delivered, more and more information gets delivered, and it always i felt like apple would be a logical place. That said, i dont think apple pulls the trigger on it. I think its google. I think its a google purchase. Thats where i would expect it to go. I have no inside information on it. I think all the other noise out there just doesnt make sense for a lot have reasons. The other question is lets just put you in the drivers seat at google. Lets say youre running the company. What do they pay for it . Whats a fair and reasonable price . Well, you know, thats a great question. The reality is its sitting in about 17 billion. Its got 3 billion plus of cash in it. Youre not going to sell that business for less than 20 probably, that would be my guess. Probably trades up and down a little bit on whatever. 20 billion. Thats why i take out a lot of the other people that have been mentioned even at disney with a big market cap of 150 billion. I just dont see disney pulling the trigger on a 20 billion acquisition. For an asset that clearly has a bunch of work to do in it and has struggled even bringing the founder back. I mean, i think we talked about that. Youre making a good point. Cramer made a point this morning that youve got a troubled asset, so maybe these potential bidders are somewhat gun shy and that if they do make this move, theyre going to see their own stock prices fall because theyre taking on something that is damaged and needs so much work, and that maybe could keep some of these players out. I think thats spot on. I think it doesnt impact google or an apple. You know, sales force, mark benioff has been public about his desire for it. Sales force trades around 45 billion. I think its a big, big bite. I also it also doesnt just from my own perspective, make a lot of sense. Twitter is a media asset, and sales force is not. Sales force enables a lot of great things to happen, but its not a media asset. You know, in a perfect world, i would love to see google buy it and right on top of it go buy medium and bring ads back into the fold ed williams back into the fold. I think jack, whether he stays or goes or goes and focuses his attention on square is to be seen, but i dont think i was, you know, clear about it the couple of times ago when i was on. I think its virtually impossible to run two companies, and both are very, very different, and both are very, very challenged. Thats not to say theres anything wrong with twitter. I mean, twitter is going through its second phase, and weve seen this happen both in Traditional Media Companies and technology stallworks. It takes a different type of environment to make these things grow. Ive already in this conversation ive already made you the ceo of google once. Now im going to make you discovery of twitter now for the purpose of telling me if its such a broken asset, what needs to happen to fix it . Well, let me just preface with this. Chris saka, one of the largest shareholders at one point in twitter, told our jim cramer the following. Their problem is not the input. Their problem is making it useful, access inl, easy, and fun for all they are users where are the good stuff is in there. Theres a lot of junk. He werent on to tell another outlet, this is a story of under achievement, of potential that was never realized, so i would be really excited for someone and someone with product vision to go in there and take some chances. They have failed repeatedly. How do you fix it . Well, you know, chris was very outspoken in pushing dick costelo out and bringing jack back. You know, i think you have to take that with a grain of salt. Again, i look at twitter and say it has a lot of users. Its certainly not growing its user base. Its grown its monotization substantially in large part thanks to adam bain and his team. I think i was pretty clear almost two years ago i thought they would have handed it to adam. He is an underrated product guy. I think adam combines, you know, both the vision on the monotization side and the product side. What do you do to fix it . The reality is it is for a small part of a generation the number one source of news and information, and theyve tried a bunch of Different Things that theyve embraced. They started to embrace videos, and that feels like it stalled a little bit. What i would do i think everything i hear coming out of twitter is they need to be able to drive product cycles a lot quicker than they are. Its okay to fail. Its not okay to fail slowly. I think this is the curse of any company that goes through the growth phase that twitter went through. It needs to move a lot quicker, and its definitely not moving a lot quicker. You are saying youre basically saying that jack has to go. I mean, thats what im hearing here. I think jack has to choose. You cant run two companies. I think he is a brilliant guy. Far about be it from me who i have never created two companies, let alone one. It doesnt mean he is the best operator in the world. Now, he has great people around him in adam and anthony and some others, but that doesnt mean, you know, he is running the Company Effectively and efficiently. You know, thats for let somebody come in there and really do a top to bottom assessment, bring in a Boston Consulting Group or a mckenzie. I bet theyll find all kinds of ways to drive efficiency in that business. The bottom line is it is go to asset people looking for instant realtime information, and like most Tech Companies that dont want to admit theyre actually playing in the media world because its not sexy and cool in silicon valley. I could care less. Its delivering realtime information to consumers 24 hours a day, and look at what these president ial candidates have done to utilize that platform for good and bad. In an election cycle, that shows you the power of twitter. I would embrace it. I would double down on that. I probably cut a bunch of people who are just working on their own favorite projects. Wefr the same problem atta hue. Right . You have to you have to focus the initiatives, and you have to really innovate quickly, and whether jack is the right guy or not, it will be left to whoer buys it. If i were google and bought it, i would very much leave it as a standalone business to run, but, you know, i would give it all the might and muscle that google could bring to bear. I want to ask you, you mentioned yahoo. I want to talk about yahoo as well. John najarian ross has a question for you. I believe its about twitter. Ross, i agree with you. I think you are spot on all the analysis here, and in particular about crm sales force. I think thats a make it or break it bet if benioff makes that bed for 20 billion. Its a 27 billion market cap company. For them to bet that all on twitter, i think is lunacy. Im agreeing with you, and ill say i dont know who is pushing that other than that benioff likes it as a platform. I dont think he likes it as an investment. Again, it just from an outsiders perspective, i dont know, mark. I actually was with mike lazaro who founded buddy media last week who had nothing but great things to say about marc and his vision and what a terrific guy he is. He is obviously a tremendous operator. I dont see it strategically, but perhaps he has a data plan in his head that makes sense. Thats why i keep coming back to google and apple. I would have said moflt a while ago, but since they bought linkedin, that seems much more far afield at this point. You start to see some interesting possibilities in a Google Youtube twitter world, right . That would be exciting certainly for consumers. Google just is not yet i guess you would