Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20160608 : c

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20160608

The energy is up over the last month or three months, and that is why we are here, right . It is a big portion of why we are here, and of course, a lot of folks have mischaracterized how much the American Public would save if you have basically took a look at the gasoline, judge, and figured that you would average family consumes 600 gallons through the vehicles and so forth through the year, and gasoline prices are up a dollar from the lows, and in m some parts of the country, they are, and that is 600 in additional what would have are been savings in the year earlier in january and now the savings is it still goes up, and you buy the stocks . No, they are topping out here, and many of the oil e p plays are topping out. One of them that i added to the portfolio that i will talk about la later that has legs, but e ps is topped out. And who is on the other side . Energy itself . Yes. Nt i dont believe we are topped out for energy itself, but what has happened in the beginning is that Money Managers have come in underweight and playing catchup. And josh have stayed with the xle and right trade, and i might have gotten out too soon, but i believed in the bottom in februa february. You naught the air was thin up where we were at that point, and a super charged comeback sips the february bottom. I thought that it made since to take profits on a trade that was significant one. I think that energy needs to be included in your portfolio for the remainder of the year, and overall, looking at the s and the p and the rally right now, all of the Asset Classes are performing well, a and this is the investor, and the money manager, and noefs times, they are looking to align themselves with the momentum, and the hot trends and the hot trade, and you cant make that distinguish right now in any sector or asset class, and what is the hot sector or the asset class running away right now, and good dispersion, a good for the market. And i go back to the conversation that the big money, the smart money with a tough time in the market, and who saw this coming . Who said that at the end of or midfebruary oil would have nearly double d . It is up more than 90 since then. And at loft people are on the wrong side of it, and now you doubled, and those stocks have run are, and energy itself since the lows are up, and the sector up 27 . Well, i think that, i think it is worth taking a step forward and not just that the Energy Prices have come back or the Energy Stocks have done w l well, because they have clearly, and the Second Derivative of the discussion is what does that mean overall, and it means some pretty good things for the investor, and the first is that it looks like we may not have this commoditydriven mass wave of bankruptcies that we were all talking about in january and february or maybe it is put off a little or maybe a little bit more narrowly focused than what it otherwise could have been. And now a commoditywave of inflationary pressures. And the second thing is more e key for sentiment more than anything else, the emerging markets are coming back, and it is becoming breathtaking, and the speed with which these names and sectors and countries have been rebought by people who had utterly thrown in the towel is absolutely part of the Energy Dollar discussion. Talk about the eem, and up huge off of the lows, and up 8 yeartodate, and brazil specifically up 4. 2 today, and up 40 year to date, and who was overweight in brazil in january as we rolled into 2016, so it is crazy development. And that is what people have missed and now, pete, what do you do . Well, trades, and you use the same word, scott, not investments, but trades. Has brazil made some incredible turn . I dont think, so and i use some ewz and im in there for the trade and the options and not in the actual ewz in terms of the equity, but the options and the derivatives side of the option, and you look at how oil is trading and looking at this higher lows, and we are seeing it ratchet it up higher and yesterday getting through 50 and now 51 and looking at xle and how tech nick areally it has traded above the twoday average and held it extremely well, and scott, what is interesting and worth pointing out, take a look at the the trash names and what i mean by that leverage. And you have been talking about those names for at least a month. And yes, yesterday i got lucky and got into the chesapeake and saw some option paper there, and going into the names that were given up for because of the leverage and made since when the oil was under 30, but here, you are getting a little revival, and seeing the guys moving to the upside, but there much more behind those right now than exxon and chevron and conoco though they have had a great run. And can we declare the rotation real, and i mean the rotation from the utilities and the telecoms and the staples and things that worked before and now into the energy, materials and financials, staying power . Well, it is a temporary rotation. That is what i am asking. It is rotating week to week. Why temporary . Well, collectively where we sit right now in june, everything kind of looks good. So it is not a matter of theres a sector right now that is significantly underperforming around and the financials are flat for the year, and yeartodate, but josh tweeted out in the last ten yearsb the financials are down, and they have underperform and they will continue to underperform until the environment is better, but what contributes to the conversation is the Federal Reserve. What are they going to do . How do they respond to the prices, and the improvement of the emerging markets, and these were all of the concerns of the Federal Reserve, and we have to look at it right now. And the markets themselves have, and you are tell thing me that brazil comeback matches what the stock market there has done . No way. And the fundamentals dont match it, but we are seeing a recovery in the chinese economy, and healing in the emerging markets and the credit markets and the Federal Reserve runs the risk here of creating an asset bubble in equities themselves if they do not do what they want to do which is to give more people more points. And we have been talking about that for months if not years. And now, marching to new highs while ignoring potential concerns including the upcoming election. Hillary clinton becoming the democratic nominee, and some of the markets feel that the market will fare better under a clinton ed administration, and bob princeton is joining us. Welcome back. And we will do politics in a moment, but weigh in on the conversation that we are having, and the march to the new highs and what is getting us there, and whether it has staying power . I think it does, and we did not talk about the technicals a whole lot, but the advance to climb line is improving and the small is beating big, and the kinds othings you want to see if a market is broadening out, and i think that the new high will convert some of the massive amount of cash, and we will get a little bit of the rally, and what has to happen that post that is earnings to back it up which we could get if oil stays up, and the dollar is down, and the isms and the pmis remain okay. And you said the market widening out, and so in other words, the breadth is much better this time around, if you will. Absolutely. Remember how sick breadth was and the deterioration in it as the market struggled over the last 18 month, and we are getting some brooendi ibroadeni that is a good indication in my view. Go trump clinton, and why would a Hillary Clinton presidency be better for the stock market . H two reasons, and is noitt that hillary is great necessarily, but two reasons to worry about donald trump. One, uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty, and we dont know what the guys policies are, and maybe by november we will, but we dont at the moment, and we have had a lot of the back and forth, and the other are reason is that he has been are pretty clear, i want to start a trade war with china and mexico and a few places, and we know that trade wars are not good for economic growth, and therefore not good for the markets, and those are the two things that have me concerned about trump at this juncture. And hang on a second, but the political rhetoric, and political reality, bob, are two Different Things though, wouldnt you agree . Absolutely. Maybe we are not going to be starting a trade war with those places, and maybe we will back off that, and then, i could have a different viewpoint, but trying to figure out what they are saying versus what they are going to do, and look, if it is a Hillary Clinton administration, and the Democratic Congress which is only going to happen if hillary won by a landslide which is not a zero probability, the markets would react negatively to that as well. So the configuration underneath the president is clearly important as well. And bob, real quick, jon najarian here, and the issue of the what the next president says now, he or she will do and what they can do as far as the trade war or Hillary Clinton going after the Drug Companies and so forth, and obviously, they have the bully pulpit at that point, and they can talk, and jawbone a lot, but can they really get legislation through that could actually be that trade war in trumps case or be the detriment to the Drug Companies and to american evolution of entrepreneurial spirit and so forth . Is that something that you worry about . That is a great question. And right question, no question that that is a big issue. On the trade, the president s have more power than at least i thought until we did some research on it. They can do a lot with Congress Just complaining as opposed to needing approval. Drug pricing is a different story, because it needs legislation, and depends on the issue, i agree. And bob, it is joe. Clearly, when it comes to the reality and rhetoric, both of the potential candidates could be guilty of osome of it, but specific policies donald trump has talked about the deficit spending and the infrastructure itself and something that this country really needs, and why not the possibility that given most likely a Republican Congress of him being donald the builder to go out the build the infrastructure in the country to get the economy to instill itself . Well, it would be good to have smart fiscal policy, we could add a half a point of gdp growth, and roll back some of the regulation, and maybe another half point which could have us growing at 3 and instead of two, and that markets would like that, so i wo wonnt dismi that possibility. Bob, appreciate the time, and lastly on the markets, june off of the table and july more likely . I think that june is off of the table given the visibility of the employment report, and i hope they go in july, they have to get going, and remember, they are at 25 basis points, and not 1. 5 to 1. 75, but it is 25 going to 50. Get on wit. Thank you, bob doll with nuve nuveen. Here is what is to come on the Halftime Report. And still, the analyst who got it right on valeant with a new call today, and should you have faith on the turnaround story or not . We will debate it. And the ceo of one of the biggest trading firms in the world, and doug cifu of virtu. And when pigs fly. You could use bacon to make bacon and tomato sandwich. And we are heading to the pork world to look at one tof te most profitable trades coming up on the Halftime Report. Back to halftime are report and here is the analyst who has called valeant right every time. And going 50 for wells fargo by cutting the price target saying that things can get worse. And it is our call of the day, and david joining us from new york city. And thank you, david. Welcome back. And you were shocked by what you had the other day with valeant. And just when we expect everything bad, they surprise to us the negative. They kitchen sinked it, and what is wrong with that narrative . Well, sometimes you kitchen sink it, and bad things happen. What is happen iing here is a l of things that people did not expect a day or two ago have emerged like a wall green deal they are not making money on, and the kitchen sink things, and you can kitchen sink it from the revenue standpoint, and maybe, and you might say, here is some expenses that we will have that they dont end up having, and frankly, products underperforming, and so that the Product Sales are not going to be going where people expect, and cash flow is not coming in where people expect, and things are worse than people anticipated a couple of days ago sglcht and wou would joe papa take the head of the titanic . People do it all of the time. Did joe make a mistake coming to this company . Well, joe i spoke to him yesterday is that he said that valeant ruined the reputation of the entire drug industry, and if he can turn it around, it helps the industry, but i say, good luck with that, and this is not a one person job, but a culture negative for a while, and also, the products are just not selling, and the deal they did with walgreens is worse than anybody expected. What are you expecting for this company . Well, so, one of the things that we did is that we looked at how much cash they are generating and looked forward and looked at the debt due. We dont know if they can actually have enough cash to pay the due that is due in 2020. So what happens when a company doesnt have enough cash to pay the debts, and they either go reorganization or sell the assets to pay the debt. Well, if you are going to start selling the assets, then the earnings numbers come down, and the equity holder, the equities numbers come down, and the valuation comes down, so it is a slippery slope. You are saying that the bankruptcy reorg is potentially in the cards. Potentially in the cards, and they will have other options, selling the assets or getting a additional loans or waivers from the debt holders, but we have spoken to a number of the debt holders, and to you were and you owed across the maturities and debt owed in 2020, 2023, and you think that somebody cannot eventually pay you, you are g going to be pushing it out or say pay me more or give me in the money, and you sell the assets and give me the proceeds from that, and guess what, the equity hold ser last in line in that list. And so, bill ackman has sat right here on this set, and we have had a conversation about the asset sales, and he said no plan plans at all to sell core assets, but is it ultimately going to be coming down to that move . Yes, of course. Nobody who is going to be selling a cores asset says, listen, fire sale and we are selling it, because they have to sell core assets, and the first few are small, and 100 million product, and that is going to get the market, they hope, market excited a little bit. But i think that when people are looking at the size of the debt, and 31 billion, that is 32 billion, it is a little bit too much for a 1,100 million or 200 million sale, and there were a lot of smart investors who said it is a bargain at 200, and at 150 and 100, and so whether it is a noted investor or not, i look at the numbers and i make my own decision. And anybody to come in to take the company out at a premium . No. Who wants the headaches of all of the prices, the irs investigation, and s. E. C. Investigations, and a whole bunch of products that were just propped up with high prices. So, no. If it does not make sense from the cash flow standpoint from the debt holders, i dont see anybody stepping in to buy the company. Dave, congratulations on a great call, but i will push back on the things can get worse, because as you say, in all likelihood, we will see the sales regardless of what mr. Ackman says, but if we see them, cou couldnt the sales be better, because like you say, it is not a fire sale, because they may have a little bit more time, and because the market may be in a better place Going Forward, and couldnt that at least be one scenario to play out for them . Okay. Imagine a consumer has a big mortgage that they cannot afford, and Credit Card Debt they cant afford, and then they start to sell their furniture, and you say, well, look, that is good. At least it pushes out the debt, and you wont get a foreclosure right away, and that is what valeant is in store for. You will see the asset sales, and realize that the ebida comes down, and so, they have to sell larger thing, and asset sales could get people excited just like a new ceo could, but that is about 10 ago. And david, we continue the follow the story and the research as well. Thank you for being here. Thank you. Wells fargos david maris. And lulu lemon on the mend, and they are hitting a 52week high, and what do you do with that trade . We will debate it. And the gold miners are back in the rally mode. We will hit the futures pit for that trade as well. But we saw an opportunity in sharing cars. So we moved fast and launched car2go in 29 cities, all around the world. Doing that required dozens of data centers, designed for speed and performance. We built our business on the ibm cloud. Because thats what the ibm cloud is built for. We built our business weinto a new american century. Born with a hunger to fly and a passion to build something better. 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It is time now nfor the blitz, and four trades on four stocks making news today, and first up, the group that we broke the story that Elliott Management has taken a s significant stake in that pulte group, and now, doc, they are saying that more changes are likely and expect Deutsche Bank

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