Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20170403 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20170403

But first we start off with major car trouble. March auto sales implying americas longrunning auto boom could be coming to a screeching halt. Phil . It may not be a complete stall. But this is certainly not good news for the auto industry. Take a look at the numbers for march. The sales rate was 16. 62 million. What were showing is the annual sales over the last six years. Last year hitting 17. 6 million. 16. 62, by the way, that is the lowest Monthly Sales rate since last june. If you look at what didnt sell as opposed to what did sell last month, down 1. 6 . May not sound like a lot, but its down 1. 6 . Cars continue to be a weak spot, down 10. 6 . Trucks and suvs, hanging in there with an increase of 5. 2 . The automakers are quick to point out that they cut back on their fleet sales in the month of march. Thats part of the explanation for why we saw weaker sales out there. But on the other end, youre seeing rising inventories and at the same time dealers across the country are all saying the same thing, theyve got to work a little harder to close those sales. As you take a look at gm, ford, fiat, chrysler, and see what the stocks have been doing in the last year, the question becomes, and its the one that theyve been asking on wall street for some time, yes, youve got profitability per vehicle, and overall, in the united states, but can you do that if the market slows down . Too early to say this is going to be a continuing slowdown in sales. This month will get a lot of attention. One last note, melissa, lets take a look at shares of tesla. They didnt quite hit 300 a share but theyre at an alltime share at just under 300 a share. Now teslas market cap, with sales of just 76,000 vehicles last year, its market cap is greater than ford. Which had global sales of 6. 6 million vehicles last year. Something to think about. Melissa . Stormy weather in shortsville. Thank you. Yes. Phil lebeau in chicago. The damage not just contained to the automakers, the bad news sending shock waves throughout the entire auto ecosystem. Auto parts retailers like auto zone and oreillys getting hit. Car rental stocks all hit. Auto lenders, they also felt the pain today. Is this the end of the auto boom . And could it be signaling other problems with the consumers . Well, its interesting. Look at gm and ford over the last three years, you can make an argument, we said it before, that the last three years have been the best times potentially ef for names like that. Yet the stocks have went sideways. Ford is in a threeyear downtrend today that is now pushing down against a level that it absolutely has to hold at 11 bucks. The news was great. The stocks didnt go up. Now the news is not so great and the stocks are clearly not going up. The one that stuck out to me, hertz down 9 today. Thats a stock that cannot get out of its own way. When you see hertz rolling over, when you see auto zone, a name that i have loved now trading at a 52week low and has not been able to recover since that amazon news when amazon said theyre getting into the space, it makes you wonder if any of these stocks are in play. Fleet sales are a big deal. If you think about also used cars coming off leases by 2019, 20, youll be at 5 million units. We probably all read this research. But thats why hertz this is not a new story. Theres nothing that came out today. Its not a secular trend that people havent been on top of it. These charts have been in decline. Gm sales mix was richer. Low margin sales. Re tale sales were up 5 . Stealing market share from ford. This is a relative value trade. I still hold on to gm at 5 1 2 times earnings. Some of them are scary with the innocecentives that auto ma have to use to make a sale. But it was up 10. 4 for the industry in march. And if that was the first time it was over 10 since 2009, the number of days on the lot, highest at 70, 2009. I think tim was getting to it. Theres structural headwinds for the auto industry. Sure. Talking about all the things going on with autonomous, with ride sharing, all this kind of stuff. This will work itself out. For gm, it round tripped a lot of moves from early november. You have a stock yielding about 5 or Something Like that, as far as a dividend yield. Tim said 5 1 2 times. But the only other thing ill say is that we know about the news about einhorn last week, he wants to split the stock. The company obviously said no. You have an activist in there, when the only thing they can come up with financial engineering, you probably want to steer clear. And probably wait until but that wasnt them coming up, it was einhorn. I know. They declined it because they think they can grow in other ways. The more focus on the suvs and truck market, thats what continues to sell. And obviously they sold off some of their european entities and so forth. I think the focus on the asian market is going to be huge for gm, and ford for that matter. But gm, if they can have Great Success there, suddenly you can start to put a bandaid on some of this bleeding that weve seen. The stock last week got a little bit of a pop up. Its right back where it was. It was as if that was done and here we are once again with a five multiple and 4 yield. Im holding on to it. Im a gm and holding. Einhorns playing, i dont want to say failed, but failed in the eyes of the market, lets say, because of real Corporate Governance problems. You cant divide a twacompany a say one part of the company will be in charge of the crash and then look, i get the tactic. The same thing about activists wanting companies to give back more capital. The drives for gm, pete pointed this out, their Global Business is unbelievable. At the same time, they just sold off their unprofitable european businesses. Big question for gm, can they hold on to the chinese partnership. Thats something i worry about. I reference an elon musk tweet earlier. Stormy weather in shortville. I wish you didnt say that. Why . Because youve got to win with dignity and lose with dignity. Why is he shooting about his share price . Hes a ceo talks about even when the shares are overvalued. He has said that in the past. It goes both ways. You could almost script a day like today the automakers reeling on the back of poor auto sales and tesla record high. Very dramatic. I think weve done a decent job with tesla. Tesla is breaking out to the upside. It got pretty close to 300. His tweet upsets me a little bit, because to me, hes i dont know. You win with class, you lose with class. Heres a guy that every sting will time they have raised money since their 2010 ipo, hes bought in. He can say whatever the heck he wants. I would put it differently. Ive been more negative about the valuation of the stock. Id like to this guy deserves all the credit in the world for running one of the most Innovative Companies in the world. I think the guys an american hero. Really, dan, we have a place here where if the guys gloating in a little bit of success on deliveries, thats great. I will say, i think the irony here is, okay, should we now value as a car company . If its really about the auto deliveries, you should not be valuing this company where they are, which is one of my main arguments. Theyre a car company but also a technology company, right . The fact that hes able to put out the fact that, hey, we put out 25,400 cars. We have records that we put out. Nobody thought that would be able to be achievable, number one. And here he is doing that. I think thats part of the story. I think elon can stand up and be pretty happy about it. You know, heres the one thing you have to track on this tesla is whats in the channel. Obviously 25,000, that was the headline. Theres stuff shipped out. It wasnt really a clean beat like that. But listen, at the end of the day some stuff is in the channel because customers couldnt take delivery. There were many reasons why they cant get a car. Its pointed in the right direction, all about the model 3. All about hitting the marks. About having the financing for the mass market, that sort of stuff. This is kind of noise for all intents and purposes. You know, tim, all the power to you at 300 bucks saying, ive been negative on the valuation. This is one of those days. Maybe its going to 600. Who knows. You can poohpooh the valuation all up. It proves you wrong about that. The best stories, most innovative managers with interesting products. They go higher. Look, dave, i totally agree with that. We have a case here where i havent been short the name. Ive been critical of the valuation because its hard for me to understand that. Youre absolutely right. Amazon is a name that i said 400 bucks and thought, i cant buy that valuation. I think ultimately it is a story, your point is well taken, a company that a lot of people dont know how to value it. And as pete said, intrinsic value. Its about potential. The 400,000 people that plunked down 1,000 apiece say, hey, look, i want in on the stock. Its all about the model 3, but the fact that they can hit the targets along the way, barely 300. You know what rich roth beat me like a drum. Yeah. All you need to know, when they price that secondary, and they did that offering, the stock went up from there, that told you that there was nothing left of the stock to go down. Ill say it again, this might not make sense, but i dont know who the incremental seller of tesla is. The people the institutions that own this stock are not getting out at these price levels, i dont think. Coming up, the nasdaq is on a record winning streak that it hasnt seen since the dotcom boom. And maybe looking for a suitor, which companies could be queueing up to be the first in line . President trump is gearing up to meet the president of china which could be the most important meeting since taking office. Why its got investors so nervous and excited. Much more fast money right after this. After this. Edge wifi to 35,000 fans. Or keeping a hotels gues connected. Sisses count on commication, and communication countsn centurink. The power of innovative thinking. The power of 100 of t worlds tocompanies. The power of an etf. Thpoweof q. The thinkinge put in, clieget out. Por yolies pofolio at powershares. Comqq. Before investing, nsider the fds vestment objecves, risks, charges and expenses. Call 8983090 for e prosctus containing thiinformation. Read it carefully. Diributed by invesco distributors inc. Ur insuran on time. Tap one little bumper, an go ur rates. What good is having insurancif ws flash nobodys perfe for drivers with acdent fgivess, Liberty Mutual wont rae ur rat due to youfirsaccident. And if you do have an accidt, our clai centers are available to assist you 7. Call liberty stands with you™ Liberty Mutualnsurance welcome back to nightly business report. Casino stocks getting a new report about the revenues jumping 18 in the month of march. That kicks och the top trade. Casinos have been on a roll this year, leaving the resorts up 34 this year. Las vegas sands up more than 6 . Mgm, the only name in the red, down 3 on the year. Should Investors Cash out . Guy adami. The time to go all in is when steve wynn was it might have been low. With that said, is it time now . I do think wynn, for example, is breaking out to the upside. If you look, traded basically this is where i had the trouble with in the middle of last year. You said it, the revenues up 18 year over year. Looking for 11 year over year. Thats a pretty significant beat. I saw an upgrade a couple of weeks ago. Youre late in the game without question. I think its going higher still. Should we be worried about beijing imposing tighter controls over commercial real estate loans . I read that in a wells fargo report today. Basically the vip and commercial are looked at. Capital control related. Thats the game thats played. A pushpull game. Every time people have overreacted to that being impact on the core business in mckou, even the mass market business. I think were back in a cycle and youre seeing this across the Chinese Consumer space. I think youve got more room to run. Ive been waiting for a pullback. I bought the first 20 . Waited. And in fact, im probably ready to get back in. I was in wynn for a long period of time. He bought it all the way up, i think his last buys were just 100 a share mel. It hit another 52week high today of 119 or Something Like that. Im doing that, because i think thats where were going to see that energy. I think vegas is strong. Still great. You saw the march numbers as well. Revenues up 9 . Its the 18 number. What about mgm . I was just looking at las vegas sands. Up 7. 5 . Its asia. Its still about 9 from the 52week high from a few months ago. Maybe thats one to get a sense here, and how our people are hitting the tables versus over there off of a very low base. A new alltime high after receiving interest from a potential suitor. Rumors of the deal sent the shares up 8 . How likely is the deal. Tim . People are saying its dominos, starbucks, you name it. Think about the restaurant space. Its been ripe with takeover targets. If you think about some of these names that could be consolidators in the space, pannera, i dont know how much of the move yeartodate has been, whispers over this kind of a takeover, some of these guys a bit of the haves and havenots. This is not a reason to buy the stock, though. I dont think you need to go there. Look at the performance, 12 months, up 30 . Up almost 40 . We talked about a break in the beginning of the year, 220 was the level. Here we are now. 32 times forward earnings. It is expensive. But every quarter they found out they seemingly perform better than the prior quarter. Market cap is 7 billion. I get valuation is rich. But could they get taken over . Yes. Do you own the stock regardless . I think you still could own the target. Would you be surprised it wasnt starbucks . It kept coming up. Given the transition at the ceo position already. It just seems like now wouldnt be the great timing for it. But maybe it still could be. One of the headlines, go to starbucks, its less and less coffee and more and more other stuff. They talked about it today, the headline that lunch is going to be a big thing for them. What im saying is, looking at the company that has 3 billion in sales, or expected to have that. Starbucks about 22 billion. You know, dont forget, north american comp down three, four consecutive quarters. At some point the new ceo may look to reinvigorate this brand. Is this valuation so rich that it seems a little bit of a reach right now . Panera, you mean. Down 50 over the last year or so. Apple is a real brand. They have a serious footprint. Ill tell you what whatever. Petes embarrassed that he referenced them in the same sense. Waffle house. Yeah. Still ahead, if you blink, you might have missed these huge moves. They got five under the radar stocks that are soaring. The names of the trades later on. Youre watching fast money. In the meantime, heres what else is coming up on fast. Were going oh stand up to china, were going to stop the currency manipulation and product dumping, which is killing us. Thats what then candidate trump said about china. But as he prepares to visit with the president this week, will he moderate his rhetoric or risk a trade war. Well have a special report. Plus, tech might be at a record high, but the mysterious northman trader says theres something in the charts that could spell trouble, and hell tell us what that is, when fast money returns. Money returns. Predictable. The comfort in knowingherethi. Because as we live longer. And markets continue to rise and fall. Predictae is one thing you need in retirement to help protect what youve earned and ense it lasts. A new company establishedthouse. By metlife speciize in annuities life insurance. Talk to your advisor about a briger financial future. Of tools, rig at your fingeip you have access to indepth analysis, level 2 data, d a team of experienced traders ready to help you if you need it its likeaving the power of a trading floor,herever you are. Its your tra. E trade. Start trading today at etrade. Co predictable. The coort in knowing where things are headed. Beand markets ntinue toer. Rise and fall. Predictable is one thing y need in tirement to helprotect what youve earned and ensurit lasts. Specialize annuities life ine nbrhby metlife. T lk to your advisor about a brighter finanal future. Welcome back to fast money. Heres whats coming up in the second half of the show. A key test for President Trump as he prepares to meet with the president of china later this week. How will it impact the markets . The s p has been stuck in the mud for the last month. A number of undertheradar stocks have been surging. First, the nasdaq hitting yet another record high today before giving up its gains at more than 9 so far this year. Bob pa sanny has more. Technology was the leading sector in the quarter, up 12 . Techheavy naz nasdaq was up 12 as well. Interday high 20 times in the First Quarter alone. This is the most intertate highs in nasdaq in the First Quarter since way back to 2000 when there were 22 daily intraday highs. 17 years ago. Big tech, very large gains in market cap this year. The biggest of the big. The Top Four Companies in the s p 500 by market cap. Theyre all tech names now, all nasdaq, apple gained 145 billion in the First Quarter. Now as the market cap 753 billion. Number two, alphabet gained 37 billion. Now a market cap of 583 billion. Amazon gained 66 billion, now has a market cap of 425 billion. Dont forget, also in the top four, microsoft added 20 billion to bring its total market capitalization to 506 billion. The biggest gainers this year have been semiconductors, shifts into auto, internet of things. Micron, broadcom, semiconductor, Texas Instruments have all gained doubledigit gains. A modest down day for the market. New highs on tesla, for example, amazon, adobe and irobot. We still get tech names on a down day. Thank you, bob. So, we talked about this before. Tech does continue to exhibit qualities that are quite good in a market that may get choppy. Well, think about this. Think about whats moving. Apples 12 in triple qs. The question you have to ask yourself, theres a lot of people out there that were on the other side of this apple trade. Some of this is seriously short covering. A lot of the big fellas that have been in the name, because you can get big capacity. You think people were short apple . Judging by the sentiment going on going into the third and fourth quarter, no one thought this release would be anything. A lot of people thought this would be a massive disappointment. The sentiment around apple six months ago was absurdly bad. I would be shocked if it was a hedge fund short. I think they werent involved yeah, i mean, thats what im getting at. There were inflows that felt they had to be nobody was out there saying the s

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