News for twitter. We start off with the retail getting dragged down. Trump euphoria, colder weather, it should ben nirvana for these guys. Until we get tax clarity, is this group suddenly a notouch, guy . I think it is. We get a lot wrong, this one i think we all got collectively ride. Nordstroms, for example, this stock had a tremendous run up to 60 in november. We talked about it and said, the run in nordstroms, too much, too fast, all the shorts have gotten forward. At 20 times forward earnings, theres no way the stock should be there. We stayeaid, look for a pull ba. All this summer, 48 1 2. Magically, here we are. I dont think you can go out and buy it on this level, but at least valuationwise it makes a little more sense than it did even two weeks ago. You had two things today that hit these retailers. You had personal income come out, which was essentially flat. Its been decelerating since 2014. You also had an mpd group report out saying holiday sales were running 4 below last year. So the combination of those two things really hit retail. What i thought was most interesting is they said even online sales. What weve all talked about here is amazon is eating everyones lunch, its all going online. That has been the narrative in the market. This challenges that. I would say if you see amazon close below 750 on a weekly basis, that could be very negative for the whole sector. That mpd Group Reports that toys are feeling pressure and underperforming. What do we do . I got this wrong, ill be very honest about it. I was looking at the Corporate Tax reform and the individual tax reformal being a real tail into the space and it will be. You look at this border tax, its scaring the heck out of investors who are struggling performancewise. I think think there is going to be opportunities. Well be getting very close. I dont believe its going to be possible for donald trump to go in and actually reform and have border tax implemented because it absolutely is a direct assault on the people that voted for him. So i think theres no chance. Nice of you guys to think of other problems for these guys. Those things are not the problem, though. The problem is their Structural Business is getting shot. Brian is talking about numbers this morning. Youre right, those numbers on how much spending power and Consumption Trends and border taxes, these guys are shot. I mean, the secular trend for these guys is terrible. Bed bath and beyond reported last night after the market closed, their margins were weak. The bricks and mortar are running into the same headwinds. Dtc was up, direct to consumer. Theyre making some headway. The bottom line is this is their season. And theyre not hitting it. Everyone says this should be their time to do well. In fact this is their time to show how poorly theyre doing because their Business Model is shot. They should be performing well into the season. Some of them are terrible stocks. I wouldnt touch them. Border taxes . Absolutely border taxes. Were marketing with our guys those are not going to happen. Im telling you right now, its most important thing on investors minds right now. Theyre 1,000 convinced thats whats holding this group back. That might be Holding People back from buying the stocks but there are fundamental reasons. Look at a name like burlington, burl. Not when you have a macro environment thats decelerating. Restaurant stocks got decimated, their sales are down the same magnitude as they have been in the last five recessions. We could see gms idling plants, youre seeing retail sales go down. This is a bigger macro picture than just a border tax. I love you guys arguing, but all agree that retail is a noinvestment zone for whatever reason. Its a nobuy zone. It could be a short sell. Best buy went from 28 bucks to 47 bucks. A lot of these stocks had huge rallies over what were probably oversold conditions. Essentially it was the Second Quarter where these things bottomed, everything that amazon did was right, everything they did was wrong. The bottom line is they got ahead of their britches. The numbers were getting in terms of the holiday sales are totally missing. The a la carte bear menu is vast on the notion that that will be a retail zone. Now maybe its the time of year, obviously theres a reason why you didnt get the strong volumes in a lot of these sames. Theres going to be a day when a name like nordstrom was down another 5 and it does it on 13 or 14 shares of volume. Today it actually traded less than normal volume, on a day where it made the lows weve seen over the last three weeks. You still long on burlington . Yes. And you stick with it . Ill defend it, i think the border taxes are being implemented. The fundamentals on the stock are amazing. The stock will be a 95 stock. Did you just say border taxes are a big problem . You dont think theyre going to happen . No, i dont think theyre going to happen. Its a concern overhanging the space. I dont believe donald trump will be able to implement 100 why does the market believe that and you dont . I agree with you, its not the problem with retail. Its fear of drug pricing. Will they change drug pricing . No, theyre probably not going to. But the fear has kept those stocks at bay. Im sure there are people at bay for various reasons, whether the Business Model is broken, whatever it is, and this doesnt help. The industry has huge secular precio pressures. They also have store by store or franchise by franchise. You have coach, ralph lauren, struggling by ube i can iquity. I think guys point was, theres going to be a place, there was obviously a place to buy these stocks a few months ago. If you think about the headwinds and think about where we are on trends, well be waiting to see where holiday sales are. You said maybe a short zone. What would you look to short . You could go the momentum on nordstroms if you want to short that. Amazon closing below 750 would pique bks interest. Then i would think about shorting amazon. Bank of america just upgraded mastercard. They just raised their price target to 120. That stock was up today within 2 of its alltime high. To me, the secular changes for mastercard and visa still work. Lets still with the mall, despite the selloff, our next guest says there are still names to buy, liz dunn has covered retail for years, liz, good to see you. Good to see you too. Two names that are not in the Department Store space, the frequentlyhated Department Store space, one is cosmetics and one is sportswear. Alta and foot locker look interesting. Beauty has been a huge trend this holiday. It still continues to be a trend even in the mpd data that was out today. Ulta continues to see the double digit growth, which is really important. Foot locker is a little different. He saw the difficult results out from finish line. I think foot locker is playing the trends much better. I think they have the right assortment. And on a midsingle digit comp, they can leverage quite nicely. Even nike has a stronger direct to consumer franchise. Does that worry you . Analysts say no, you can still have nike do direct to consumer and still have foot locker do well. Isnt there a Tipping Point in which a nike direct to consumer business is a threat to foot locker . Nike needs both. With only a quarter of their business in direct to consumer, they really do need that wholesale business. We saw with the north american futures down 4 , they really need to focus and stick with the winners like foot locker. Finish line is obviously having some challenges. Foot locker is the strongest player. Its their strongest partner. I think they need to continue to double down on that relationship. Im not worried about the growth in direct to consumer for nike as it relates to foot locker. The other thing that came out of nick k nikes results is, theyre seeing a bounceback in basketball or hoping for that. Liz, tim pitched estee lauder on the valuation that the stock got washed out. The stock is probably up 75 this year. At what point does valuation just get to the level where you say i have got to throw in the towel here . Yeah, eight quarters of strongly positive comps is certainly a little bit of nosebleed territory. But i think when you have such a strong trend as your friend and a share gaining situation, a lot of positive drivers for ulta, i still think the stock has a lot of room to grow and will continue to be a winner. The beauty category is seeing a huge resurgence in interest particularly from millennials and i think ulta is playing it quite well. A quick question on foot locker, i know nike represents ruff roughly 70 of their revenue. How will they make that up . Are they stocking the shelves with a different manufacturer . Adidas is on an uptick, under armour is obviously on an uptick. Foot locker is playing that balance well. So as other styles come in favor, you know, lower profile styles, theyre able to make up the maybe downturn in basketball with some of those other categories. And so i think theyre doing that quite well. And i think their merchandising is quite strong. Theyre investing in stores. They win with nike but they can win even if nike is having challenges. Last question, liz, 5 border tax, who would that impact the most and do you believe this will ever happen . Well, you know, i stopped making claims about what was impossible a couple of weeks ago. But i think that its certainly possible. And if it happens, i think you want to stay away from those direct importers like unique n the near term. It impacts all retail in the long term. The most Immediate Impact is for those Companies Like nike who manufacture a significant amount in asia and that are direct importers. Liz, great to see you, thank you. Thanks for having me. Liz dunn, talmadge advisers. Okay. First of all, back to just the health and beauty products, which i love, its not just millennials, were at a place here were the marketplace is growing. The problem with ulta, i read a piece a few weeks ago that says its ultas world and we live in it. Its doing everything right. The valuation reflects that. At 35 times, it makes you wonder how much more these guys could do. I happen to think these numbers are great, we talked about how theyre reassessing their business, we talked about how enthusiastic about taking their market share back. Thats a name i would buy. I cant believe im doing this but i would agree with tim on estee lauder. The valuation, he made the case. Risk reward at 78 is not so bad. It has support on 76. Youre doing well with the estee lauder pitch. Im speechless. He never is. Never. Home depot has been tough for a while, that stock is okay. If you want a total flier that was down huge today but has Bed Bath Beyond . You think you know what im going to say. I dont know. And who doesnt love 20 off . Henry bendell. Which stock . Why are you bringing up mist misteltoe when youre sitting so close to brian . Risk reward is interesting. Coming up, emerging markets are tanking as the market goes higher. Plus carl icahn telling cnbc there is a dangerous amount of money holed up in etfs. Is one of the hottest ways of investing about to unravel . Well tell you the stocks that got hit off this. And the strategist at wells fargo who correctly called the postelection rally, he says the gains could already be priced into the market. What can you still buy . His top picks on fast money, after this. Both on the track and thousands of miles away. With the help of at t, Red Bull Racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. Brakes are getting warm. Confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. Understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. Giving them the agility to have speed precision. Because no one knows like at t. Generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. Im in all the way. Is that understood . I dont know what shes up to, but its not good. Cant the world be my noodles and butter . Get your mind out of the gutter. Mornings are for coffee and contemplation. That was a really profound observation. You got a mean case of the detox blues. Dont start a war you know youre going to lose. Finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. On xfinity x1. In the market today, the danger is you have all this money pouring in from america into etfs. Etfs, theyre blind buying, you buy these etfs. I question the fact, if youre buying these stocks and you really dont know what you own, youre prone to these periods of time when youre going to get there could be some kind of crisis and there could be a problem. That was trump adviser and billionaire investor carl icahn today saying theres a dangerous amount of money dammed up in the etf market. Wisdomtree was down sharply, along with blackrock. When carl speaks, things happen. There were a lot of etfs out there that are high volume, that are very liquid, that you may not worry about. When he says you dont know what youre buying, you really do know what youre buying. Its not that hard to figure out. The etf has the list of stocks incorporated. I hear what hes saying, there are now 1600 etfs out there, 20 years ago there were 30 of them. Maybe there are too many. But i dont think theres an inherent danger with the majority of these instruments. Love carl, he loves our show. But the etf dangers for investors right now are, if anything, people are probably finding overlap between etfs they own. We could do a whole show about this etf thing. The bottom line is, i actually think the etfs have worked particularly well in a bull market. Thats the bigger issue. Its the passivity. I know i sound like a guy from a hedge fund. This is a time when correlations have been very low. Until theyre not. Right. Until theyre not. Is this the time i think his concerns are with specific types of etfs. He look at Corporate Bonds and say, we created essentially a liquid asset, a liquid form of an asset in a nonliquid asset. Corporate bonds were not meant to be traded like that. These were created for the American Public to invest in. If something occurs that creates a run on it, it could be a disaster because the banks cant create liquidity. Here is how its related to your stock portfolio. You have Something Like lqd, which is the liquid etf, and the high yield etf, hyg. Investors are hedging high yield exposure with s p 500 puts. So theres a linkage there. Thats the risk in the market, when you have these illiquid instruments, you get a gap and it translates into the s p 500. The bigger issue for the etf companies, its ridiculous, the competition, its a race to the bottom on fees. All these guys are looking at lower top lines if everything remains static. If these companies, the etf sponsors, could be under pressure, does that mean its necessarily good for the asset managers, like a janus . Blackrock was under pressure, its down a percentage and a half. It seems like a big move. This stock went from 300 to 400 this year. Valuation is not rich. Its a growing business. I get the carl icahn effect for a day or two. If this stock trades over another couple of percent over the next couple of days, thats a name you want to buy. Active managers who know how to deal with the etfization of the markets are the ones that are going to do well. You know how etfs push around certain stocks and you can take advantage. Ahead, trouble for a handful of stocks, well tell what you they are. Im melissa lee. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Heres whats coming up on fast. Announcer theres something wrong with the chinese stock markets. Whats that . Antidote. To what . The poison you just drank. Announcer and why it could spell trouble for the trump rally. Plus biotech continues its breakdown. But there are three stocks wall street thinks could double next year. Meg terrell will break down the names and fast money returns. A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley you nailed it. Thats amazing. Run dmc, a very special christmas, came out parole in 82. Your favorite christmas song. I am benedict arnold, the infamous traitor. And i know a thing or two about trading. So i trade with e trade, where true traders trade on a trademarked trade platform that has all the. Get off the computer traitor i wont. cannon sound i wont. Its your tv, take it with you. With directv and at t, stream live tv anywhere datafree. Join directv today starting at 35 month. No extra monthly fees. Welcome back to fast money. The trump rally stalling again today as indices were in the red. In the second half of the show, could Virtual Reality be a virtual bust . 2016 was supposed to be the year of er with everyone from facebook to playstation rushing to put our their own devices. The numbers suggest consumers arent taking to the hype. Well tell you why. Plus the biotech breakdown continues. Three stocks could double next year. Well give you the names. The index tracking for its longest winning streak since 1984 is creating a headwind for a number of stocks. Dom chu is in the newsroom. If youre a macro trader thats been long the trade, youve had a darn good run. The ticker uup tracks the value of the dollar. Its up over 10 since midaugust. After such a dramatic run for the greenback, are we due for a pause . One spot that traders are keeping a close eye on is the emerging markets funds. Theyre often hurt by the rising value of the dollar. Lets hone in on the big etf that tracks it, emerging markets fund, ticker eem. Since hitting a 52week high on september 22nd, shares have dropped since then. Its been a negative trade for four of the last five days. And certain individual country funds are working on negative trends as well. Take a look at the ishares larger cap fund, seven straight down days for that etf. Its been down nine of the last ten. He wi melissa, traders will be watching these in 2017. Will there be bottom pickers around or is the worst yet to come . Guys, back to you. Dom, thank you. Carl icahn joined the Halftime Report earlier today to address trade issues with china under president elect trump. Obviously if you get into a trade war with china, sooner eo later, well have to come to grips with that. Maybe its better to do it sooner. But thats not my decision at all. Maybe its better to do it sooner, tim, what do you think . If china is doing poorly, youre doing particularly poorly if youre investing in markets. The em is down 15 straight from effectively right before the elections. It went from being an out performer, if you do the spy divided b