Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20161101 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20161101

Selloff on wall street as we are one week away from the u. S. Election. The dow down as much as 200 points at the low. The s p 500 closing at its lowest level since july 7th. And the nasdaq locking in its sixth straight day of losses for the First Time Since april. You have the vix soaring, gold jumping, high yield down in the last six and small cap stocks getting hit the hardest. So are election fears finally taking their toll on the market . Are things only going to get worse . Ahead of next tuesday . Guy. Things only going to get worse. That implies the market continues to sell off. Im not convinced its election fears. Were going to have that conversation. To me, more technicals. Why is it technicals . Ill give a quick example. Last night youve got great data in china, right . Great data. What i thought was pretty good data here in the United States this morning. We would have rallied a month and a half, two months ago, in a meaningful way in the s p. We didnt do it. Tried early, failed at levels we talked about this 2130 level in the s p has been critical. Steve talks about levels. Now the onus is on the bulls to recapture that. Jeffr jeffr Jeffrey Gundlach talked about that. Im not certain about that. But what i do think you could see is a move down to 2050 or so in the s p and the thing that really concerns me quickly is the fact that the russell never made an alltime high. A double top at levels we have talked about at 128 and has been rolling over for the last couple months. Decent data overseas. I know everybody in the whole world is discounting this. Does that put the fed actually in play this week. You would think. What happened to the dollar . The dollar actually fell off a cliff on an intraday basis. You would think the fed now is back on the sidelines. Thats the way i read it. You looking for crude. The opec effect off. The s p, guy talked about levels. 2134, the old may 2015 high. Breaking through that for me, extremely bearish. The next level, 2050, ultimately. Flat on year, 2043. You have to look through the prism, are we giving back the whole year. Bulls werent ready to do it just yet. I think it does get worse. As much as youre seeing the technicals now, i think its far more political. The reason i say that, when we start looking at the poll numbers and donald trump getting closer, closer, it was all but guaranteed last friday that Hillary Clinton was going to be our next president. Now there is a little bit of a question. Doesnt mean shes not in the lead. She certainly is. But i think there is enough of a question mark right now. Look at the spike we have seen in the volatility. A week ago, we were in the 12s. Today in the 20s. When you look at what got hit today, it wasnt financials, wasnt technology, other than apple. Overall, technology, the slk gives that technology read, that tells you were just off the 52highs. I think those are the areas to be. Last week we talked about if we started to get hit, where would you want to be . I still say financials and technology. I agree with pete. I think the election was the number one thing moving the market today. Theres a convergence of a number of different events. The china thing, maybe the fed, certainly higher odds on the table for december. Right . So i think the market doesnt love that. And that to me the election thing is the most closely watched, i think. I feel like if pete is right, well see if if momentum slows or even turns, be then i think the market will come back. For me, i covered some uso, which i dont love doing in a down market, but it sort of feels like the time thats why you have it on, if it goes down. And then apple sort of on my list of i didnt buy any, but almost there. Its almost there. I mean, it didnt trade well today at all. And i thought it was sort of overdone. I think the p. M. Real quick on apple. I know everyone talks about iphone sales. I think its more of a testament to samsungs head wings were apples tail winds. I think its becoming obvious. We had the survey saying the iphone 7 demand was not as great as they expected in china and also a report from kgi securities, the Korean Research firm, one of the most wellrespected apple analysts in the world, supposedly, saying that mac book demand wasnt as strong either. We had a confluence of things, on top of the riskoff day. Guy, in terms of the sectors that sold off the most today, we saw it in utilities, telecom, reits. To me, that makes a little bit of sense. You saw the bond market bounce back, maybe rates bk put that chart up a couple weeks ago where 2 in a tenyear the top end of a very longterm down trend in terms of where yields are going. Maybe we finally have bottomed out in terms of the actual tlt and maybe top down in terms of where yields are. Real quick, i hear what pete and karen are saying on financials. Take a real good look at jpmorgan, where they traded to last year and failed. Basically 70 bucks. Look at the high today. I think it was 69. 88, give or take. I think that bears watching over the next couple days to see if we can recapture that 70 level or give up the ghost here. So all of you say theres a confluence of things. Technicals, politics. Is there a reason to put fresh money to work in the markets right now . No. No. I think you have to wait. The catalyst right now, are the election. Its fomc. And you have opec. Opec seems to be waning a little bit. But ahead of fomc and the election, i think its just throwing darts at a dart board. Theres got to be something youre active in, pete. I still believe in the energy trade. When you look where oil has been. 51, 52 and then pulled back. Got back under neegd 50. Are we in a new range . I think there are areas, whether its metals or in the oil area right now, where those are some of the opportunities. I love the financials. Im waiting for the pullback. Were not seeing it. Thats near the 52week highs, the xf, the tech trade and financials continue to be strong. If the market sells off because of a donald trump victory, or concerns of if hillary wins and theyre concerned about the fbi probes, on a sell like that, i think theres opportunities. What else is on your list . You or i had a terrible day today. Ive been on this for a while. I think we could see infrastructure spend, i know its one of steves sort of planks of the thesis. I think it was overdone today. Its getting its i could see buying it right here. Im basing mine off of earnings. I look at jpmorgan and citi and bank of america and juniper and microsoft. They were great numbers and the forecasts looked pretty good. That keeps me on that bullish side. Lets look at the markets. One top wall street strategist is laughing in the face of fear. After charlie turning bullish last month, he says the s p 500 is going higher. Here to discuss his positivout look for stocks, adam, great to see you. Thanks for having me. Higher, no matter who wins. Ive been bullish for five years in one month, close enough. Well take the last month. But i would say, yeah, im i dont want to give a political answer, but im 60 with guy, i think there was a lot of technicals first day of the month, big blocks being moved around and sort of who with pete and karen, there was some politics and stuff going on. But in terms of today, i think im bullish, because i think earnings are okay. Guidance is holding up okay, broadly. Generally. So i think the expectations are achievable. I dont think the valuation is crazy versus other regions in the world. Youve got 72 of all the stocks in the world that trade 100 million or more in the u. S. People want that liquidity. I have fundamentals, valuation, liquidity positioning. Thats calling the overall markets. Are there sectors you would actually say, it does matter who wins. It does matter what the outcome is. And we might stay away or invest based on that. All you guys are trading in much shorter horizons. Youre talking about waiting until next week. Like youre a lot better than me. Im thinking about kind of 12, 24 months out. In that context, i dont care that much. I could create an argument that its good either way. You just get uncertainty over with and get back to normal business. It would be quicker if you get a democratic sweep or republican sweep, it creates a higher probability things could change. And thats not our base case nor are we recommending a position for that. I like karens idea, industrials. I havent been overweight in industrials for five years. Our biggest underweight in 11 and 15. I think you have the highest probability of action there that could really, you know, spur incremental enthusiasm thats not in the numbers. So i like that trade. Let me go back to one thing you said. People being on the sidelines, not fully invested. What exactly did you say and what did you think . Morgan stanley, net beta adjusted, net growth exposures. Look at futures, surveys, options, maybe their rhetoric is big in their positioning but not in a position for upside. Thats what i mean. One more thought on the election. I think we might have talked about this in 2012, september. We would have said, well, if romney wins, thats good for the market. If obama wins, thats terrible. The corporates are telling you that, delaying spending. 2013, not saying up, bottom left up for s p. I just think its hard to predict whats going to happen. More to do with the fed policy versus any not i think there is cycles and rates that have the politics just dont always override. Adam, go back to industrials. Youve heard the commentary out of honeywell, triple m, utex, has not been good. And coming back into the space after being away for a while. Are you coming back understanding there might be another down draft . I think part of it let me give a few reasons. Part of it is most of that bad news is in the numbers. When you think about things that have slowed Business Jets or i think you mentioned energy metals. I think most we call second derivativ derivatives. Most stopped getting worse, you have a little better momentum. Nobody is positioned for big up side in industrials. Thats definitely not where peoples heads are. When i talk to them, i feel like when i look at it, there are seven or eight stocks, 70 billion or larger that a lot of them trade at discounts to the market and have above earnings growth. So im looking at names at 15, 14 times earnings. That kind of have a 10 earnings profile and a tape closer to fat earnings at 17, 18 times. And so i have kind of a little bit of a valuation support. Most people know the bad news is out there. And, you know, i have big bets in some of the airlines which are six, seven times earnings. I think youve got a lot of action in the defense sector, not cheap, but good shareholder return. So things i can own i feel excited about and interested about in that sector. Adam, thanks for coming by. Appreciate it. Good to see you. Good luck. Adam parker of morgan stanley. Something for everybody here in terms of adams picks, right . Really good. Bringing it. A laugh in the face of the skeptics. I like the industrial call, really interesting to me are for the reasons he just mentioned. And the name that when he talked about the metrics he looks for, the name that sort of resonated in my head is honeywell. You had that terrible announcement, the stock has recovered a little bit since then. If it can recapture that 110, 111 area, honeywell is interesting, especially after what adam said. Im going disagree with the industrials. I think Global Growth is going to sit on those industrials. I do agree with his utilities overweight on thamplt i dont think anyones position for upside in utilities right now. Pete . I am sort of baffled that he doesnt have technology as one of the three legs. I look at technology right now, the earnings so far that we have heard have all been absolutely phenomenal. By the way, he was wrong on that percentage. I think he meant karen and i 60 and guy on that side of the desk was 40 . Oh. Where did you go . Come back. He said where it was weight you said but i think it was miscued. You being i still look at low multiples and great growth and getting a yield. What else do you want in this environment than that . I think thats great. Check out shares of gilead, volatile in the after showers session. Well hear from the ceo later and yums china unit soaring on its spinoff into its own publicly traded company. Are the companys china problems behind it . We have details. And tesla getting ready to tie the knot with solarcity. Elon musk speaking right now. Well hear from him later on in the show on a very busy fast money. Stay tuned. Welcome back to fast money. Weve got an earnings alert on Electronic Arts. Julia boorstin in l. A. Melissa, Electronic Arts reporting a slight beat in revenues, 1. 1 billion, a hair better than wall street analysts expected. The shares traded lower on a lower than expected outlook than the stock turned around and now trading slightly higher in after hours on light volume. Now ea raised its annual guidance in the Strong Performance of fifa 17 to date. But that outlook for the companys fiscal Third Quarter and the full year is still lower than wall street analysts had been looking for. The company stressing its success with battlefield and two and progress with east and Virtual Reality experience in the works set it up quite nicely. We had a Holiday Season with more mobile device, Electronic Arts is in an outstanding position. With battlefield one and titan two, we have two of the top rated shooter games engaging a broad audience of players. Ceo Andrew Wilson stressing on the call that e as games have an audience that is truly global. He talked quite a bit about interest in e sports for various games, particularly madden saying there is a madden competition and big championship coming up in december. Melissa, back over to you. Thank you, julia boorstin. Grasso, i think you liked active vision. Active vision the underperformer. Yeartodate, up 26 . Ea is right spak in the middle. But battlefield one, a lot of positive commentary on that. So maybe you play it middle of the pack. Guy making positive commentary about battlefield one the other day. First of all, im not big fan of these firstperson, thirdperson shooting games. It aint my thing. But hash tag smooth, went to Madison Square garden last week with tim seymour, and the place was sold out and i made fun of those people, got a lot of twitter hate. But clearly, something is going on here. And ive got to tell you something. Electronic arts at 19 times forward earnings, given the fact they have eps growth at 12 or so, and hard to replicate, i think its sort of interesting right here. And who are they stealing it from . Honestly, we just had this last night. Espn, we talk about all these ratings and sports and all the rest of it. People are going to devices and playing games somewhere. This is good for best buy . As we approach the holidays season . I suppose it could be. I mean, its obviously i think ea raise their guidance and maybe it wasnt exactly what everybody was looking for. But still, this is where people are. This is where were getting stolen. The platform that people are watching, its not tv. Its other platforms. And this is the winner. Maybe its good for game stop. Think of it that way. I karen . I would have been short game stop forever. I cant believe its still here, to be honest. Yet it is. Yeah. Ive go to game stop all. Time. I like seeing whats going on in there. In the short hills mall, i dig it. Im sure you do. Lets get to yum brands, officially finishing off its china unit and that kicks off top trades. Earlier today on squawk on the street, greg crede, ceo, said its road blocks in china are behind it. I think all issues are behind us. I think the big story is it growth. Whether its urbanization in china, the infrastructure, which the thing about infrastructure, its railroads, airports, train stations and malls. All of those are opportunities for us to build new restaurants and grow our footprint in china. So we think theres unlimited Growth Potential in china. Grasso. So you know where ive been in the space or where ive liked in the space. Dominoes up 50 yeartodate. But if you look at the yum spin, its positive for a number of different reasons. Or at least theyll spin it, to be positive for a number of wircht different reasons. Now yum china can concentrate on yum north america here. Thats the positive forum. And yum china is the growth engine. Its going to be unlimited growth. He says unlimited. Its going to be aggressive. Store openings. Its going to be aggressive digital. Its going to be aggressive everything when you look at yum china. If the headwinds are out of the way, as he said, which is a big if, it seems like its pretty positive. If its unlimited then its clearly great right here. But its an interesting instrument in that you really have this pure play. You have a great company. Pure play. And that should have some premium. Just to be able to use the instrument. Its probably one of the only pure play aside from china chinese adrs, the only pure play. Because weve talked in the past about a nike or a starbucks. Obviously, thats not pure play. Finally, youve got this its a significant size that its not going to be can be traded. And i think the differentiator, youre going to have far more volatility in the china market than you are in the u. S. And rest of the emerging, which is where the rest of yum is. So you have to discern who you are. Are you willing to put up with the volatility youre going to see in yum china, versus the volatility are you . I think you own both. Keith myster one of the startest guys on the street. If he says it, i believe it. I think he has been right on this name. When you look at taco bell and the refresh they have done there and kfc, there is franchising on one side and the other side, emerging growth. You do get the both if you own yum. Because it gets a percent of the china sales. Which is probably to me is that the better . That i think is the safer of the two, right . And both great job with the interview this morning. Comps in china were actually down, i think, month over month or year over year. There are growing pains associated with the unlimited growth we talked about. Right now you have one restaurant for every Million People in china. Clearly, that can grow. But there are going to be some hiccups along the way. And remember, there was some remember about the Health Concerns that cropped up. You dont think thats going to happen again. Im just saying. All right. Still ahead, Tesla Ceo Elon musk speaking right now about the solarcity deal. Im melissa lee and youre watching fast money on cnbc. First in business worldwide. I

© 2025 Vimarsana