In the United States and the hunt for yields continues. Staples, which hit a fresh high today, but are those socalled safety stocks now the ultimate danger trade . Take a look at that. The pes for the 2016 growth, which is practically anemic. Well, first of all, part of the problem here is were talking about staples. If youre talking about the head wins, if youre staples retarial, you want inflation. Thats going to add to your top line revenue sales. Their core group and the kour households, growth is not there and theres no inflation, so start with that foundation, which is not terribly good. Were in an environment where companies have very solid business models. And they have extraordinary yields. Why shouldnt they trade at a premium. When i look at where we are in the market cycle and if we are late economic cycle, joe yesterday for example, you should own these names and you should own them and you shouldnt be blindly just diving into them. There is relative value in this space. Ewan lever is one of the names i want to own because these guys have growth. They are a core uk exporter, at least a lot of their businesses uk export and thats very interesting. Its all about yield. Thats all that matters. Thats all anybody cares about right now. If it has a yield, it gets a bid and thats it. Now, that can be very dangerous. That is public like territory. Ive mentioned this before, so, if youre buying that fresh 52week highs for a 3 yield, you are buying into a bubble and when they reverse, three mutual funds dont do suspensions because theyre ill liquid. Everybodys in the same trade. Its all the hunt for you. Actually, its very different. Its hard to sell a building to get out of that nuclear property fund. My point everybodys crowded into the trade. When everybody runs for the door, youre going to have problems. No different than feign stocks when we had that sell off in january, february. They got crushed. Xlu, you could have said they were overvalued at 43. You could have said 53, so you could have said that argument and i dont really argue with the basis of it. I argue with it in practice. We watched this from the december rate rise. And weve seen everything you thought about the opposite happened. When people Start Talking about overvalue, you have to have a multiple on it. Weve never seep an environment like this before. Its about yield. It is about yield and about negative yields around the globe. If that number keeps going higher, these stocks keep going higher as well. The question is, when do you get rid of fundamental valuation. Take a look at for instance, we pulled up just not, paying the 46 pe for sales growth estimated to be negative. 12 for 2016 and youre getting a yield slightly above the s p granted, but youre paying 45 times for negative sales growth. I cant understand it because if you do it for the yield one crappy day, there goes your years worth of yield. Inning they have more room to run, but i dont the thesis behind buying. Kimberly, behind buying say a png here. I dont get it because youve got to hope that it goes that the valuation goes even higher. Because you have that yield, but youre not, say they have a yield doesnt in any way account for the risk that you have. This is not a bond. The price you u buy it. Think about what youre talking about. I dont think its a crazyiest thing, but i dont see it as attractive here. Whats the theory behind owning here . Its yield. Thats my exact point. I agree. All fundamentals. Dont worry about fundamentals. Its going to be different this time. Its not different this time. They will revert to the mean and this bubble will pop. I tell you what they will. Two things. If you are the and i believe you are, that yields are going to the floor and were in a longer environment because the world is a dangerous place. Then why wouldnt you want to stay in these stocks . That trade is going to work. Youve said it, ive said it. Back to proctor and gamble. Its a company thats been dead in the watt e for five years and if anything, i think there are some things going on there that over the next 12 to 18 months may by dividends and divestitures, the change in management, the fact they are cutting costs. I think theres an argument a that at least company by company, i know karen is speaking in generalalties, but i think thats what you have to do here. Its like always. You cant just go buy stuff. You have to look look at a company, in the face of Global Growth increase. The irritation out of these stocks into other stocks. If it goes and not seen as classical defensive names. If i dont care about what the crowd needs. When you look at staple, truly defensive stocks. Im asking you guys to throw out the labels. What are the new safety trades . If you want to go for yield, where to you go . I have a problem with p premise. What are the safety trades and if you want to go for yield. These socalled safety trades which may or may not be safe, but throw in the conventional labels, say what we think as safety trades given what were paying for them in terms of multiple. I think its a place where you have ralluations that are supportive. In health care, you have earnings revisions that are not getting destroyed. You have earnings growth, dividends on average about 2. 2 . Scary times. If those are valuations by the way, and you have Central Banks cutting rates. So both tim and make great points. It was my personal opinion, so if you have to look at these particular stock, the one i own for yield, cme group. If theres nice volatility, they should benefit from that. I dont look for yield. Its not a factor for me. I Like Companies that when you buy the stock instead of yield, get taxed on dividend, but thats okay. Very attractive and the head wind now is questions about their merger with csigoncigna. Its u. S. Entirely. I feel safe there. Staples, still long on. Intend to stay long on. Utilities as well. So i think that once all those details stop, once you see a raising rate environment so this is the end, but we traded at 280, this might have been a big day. Speaking of quote unquote safety trades, gold prices are at two year high, but the gold bond is done. What do you see happening here . Its a bad risk. It will go back and retest the lows of this cycle. So, what happens with commodities typically and gold is a commodity make no mistake, you get a bounce. You get some reverting. We just saw it. But what typically happens, it starts to peter out here in the next few months and it will go back and retest at 1050. Maybe next year before it happen, but the technical chart at this point says maybe 1400, maybe 1440 if youre lucky, but 1050 is a downside. Doesnt seem worth the risk to me. So, to be clear, youre telling clients to get out of gold because you see the risk to the downside. Risk reward is pointing to the downside . Im saying its not worth the buy. My main call is straenlgic. If youre in it, it depends on what youre doing. Shortterm, yeah, i get out. Longer term, sit with what you have, pare it back as it starts to move up in the next month or so. Its a better buy, so if youre thinking longer term, anything beyond the next year, youre probably going to get a better buy than 1365 than where we are today. I dont get gold generally, but i have a particular question. Forgetting the commodity nature of gold, but more as this sort of you know, flight to real asset or Something Like that, in this post brexit, it looks to me like it was a very mild rally. On what could could have been a very is is that your way of thinking. Its one of these you think about it, where were we 1320 before this happened . There was a day we dipped below 1300, but we were in the low 1300s, with efg thats happened, the most we got was 40 bucks . Yeah, it definitely plays into my thinking. When i look at the technicals, everyone seems to be piled into this trade and just understanding how commodities work over these long cycles. Everything points to its a bad risk. First of all, stepping out there with that view, i think its interesting. One of my views is that this has been a threeyear bear market for gold. Three plus. You gone through this period where reverks of the mean is still hire. The other part is what do you, how do you make or reconcile the fact that pgns across the space around. Platinum, pa a pla laid yum, si. All the precious medals are rallying. Part is underinvestment in a sector. Capacity and cutbacks for three or four years and a lot of supply has come off the market. Yeah, so two points. Good point. The first one typically what happens in these bear markets is that healing process youre talking about that we went down for three years and now all of a sudden, supply and demand have balanced. The history of supercycle shows it isnt typically balanced the first balance. It takes a long time as in a decade plus before the real bans comes. So be weary of that. The second point though. I like platinum. So if youre going to play this trade, it trades a at roughly 28 discount to the price of gold. Historically speaking, last 40 years, platinum has traded up 30 . Premium. So, you can play that spread. I think thats a good trade. Buying gold though longterm doesnt make much sense here. Thank you. Wells fargo. 1050 is his level. I think golds in a bull market. Im long gold. He had a tremendous run. So the trader in me says do you want to buy it at cent highs, probably not. But if we talk about wanting the safety trades, id like at the gold miners on any dips. Grassos been on this year years. I think theyre up 100 this year. If you believe then miners are going to collapse. So, you have gld thats up roughly 25 . Gdx thats up 110 . So you see that outperformance up and down. They will get crushed and they are overborrowed right now. You see a good nonfarm payroll on friday, then i think youre going to see this collapse in gold, but until we see a lot of these seeds being planted, i think its longer than the two. Up next, its a sports Live Streaming tool today with kovrnl of wimbledon, was it a hit with users . Plus, brexit may have weighed on the global market, the ipo business is going pretty strong with the biggest Public Offering in 2016 set to begin trading next week. A special report on what to watch and later, a flashing sell sign for the market . One Important Group of stocks just entered a dreaded death cross. Well give you the hall of fame and tell you how to protect yourself. Welcome back. Western digital rallying after hours. Hey, melissa. Shares are up about 3 after hours. The company raising its Fourth Quarter guidance following the completion of a 16 billion acquisition of sandisk to 72 Cents Per Share versus the original view of 65 to 70 cents. The company sees revenue of about 3. 5 billion. Western digital announcing mark long will you can seed olivia has cfo this september. This stock down more than 20 year to date. All right, thank you very much. You know, its really been a roller coaster ride for Western Digital shareholders over the past month or so. Down a lot more than that. So, this could be the momentum that you would get so for me, i dont mind it. Now on to twitter. Trade tonight, the social media giant rolling out the live platform with kovrnl from wimbledon. A stream of related tweets on the right. Back in the fall, twitter announced it paid the nfl 10 million for the rights to stream some of the thursday night football games. Yes. I think this is the beginning of these guys beginning to kind of tap into this success of the nonlogged in audience, which theyve been trying to become the metrics of. We know they use have flat lined at best. Some are saying their going to start to pull back. And so bring it on, mash it up, they have a secondary makes it its own form of content, so i think advertisers want to be attached to some of this. I think in term os f it have product and the functionality still up in the air. I roged in today. Thought i was going to see mcenroe borg playing. Missed something by about 30 years. I think you have a case where the company is starting to find ways to utilize its core presence, which is about being a Second Derivative of news. Trying to take advantage of broadbased audience that doesnt have to be a dedicated twitter engaged user. You know what i noticed over the past few days or so, usa today, which is probably the most mainstream of the mainstream newspaper, they had a big article on jack dorsey and the headline was dorsey hasnt fixed the trouble with twitter, which made me think twitter connection. Post brexit, the stock is up that 7 . Ive been a long suffering holder of twitter. Ive scaled down my position as the stock has been scaled down as well. Bob packer, his price target is still around 18 and the stock is below that. I dont think they fixed the problem either. Im sort of hopeful for the stock to return, but im not optimistic. Up next, much more on the developing story on tesla in the pennsylvania autopilot crash. All the latest details. In the meantime, heres what else is coming up. And intors have something to scream about with transports entering swoo a death cross today. This isnt a warning sign for stocks. Hell explain why. Plus thats basically whats been happening to shares of Deutsche Bank. And it looks like the bleeding wont stop there. Well tell you why new lows could be right around the corner. Much more fast money after this. Thank you. Ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. I order b14. I get b14. No surprises. Buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster White Knuckle thrill ride. Youre promised one speed. But do you consistently get it . You do with comcast business. Its reliable. Just like kung pao fish. Thank you, ping. Reliably fast internet starts at 59. 95 a month. Comcast business. Built for business. Tmom didnt want another dog. She said its too much work. Lulus hair just floats. Uhh help me doorbell mom, check this out. Wow. Swiffer sweeper, and dusters. This is what im talking about. Look at that. Sticks to this better than it sticks to lulu. Thats your hair lulu mom, can we have another dog . laughing trap and lock up to 4x more dirt, dust and hair than the store brand stop cleaning. Start swiffer ing and this involves the model x suv crash in pennsylvania last friday. Remember it came out yesterday afternoon. That the driver of this vehicle that hit one guardrail and then went across and hit a concrete barrier in the middle and then flipped out, he said look, it was in autopilot and at the time, thats all we had was his word to a patrol officer. Now, tesla as well as n its a have more to say about this accident. Late today, the ntsb out with statementsy saying they are looking into this crash collecting information. Tesla and the driver of the model x involved in a crash on july 1st to determine whether automated functions were in use. N its a announced last week it is investigating the systems in these model ss and xs to see if they are functioning as they are supposed to be or if theres a defect or if its driver error, what exactly is going on. Tesla has said all along, drivers must stay alert. With this accident in pennsylvania, tesla out with a statement this afternoon, one of many they released on this crash saying tesla received a message from the caraun july 1st indicates a crash event, but logs were never transmitted. We have no data to indicate that au autopilot was or was not engageded. It is not possible to learn more about access to the vehicles bonn board box. We have tried, but have been unsuccessful to reach the owner of that vehicle to get his side of the story in terms of what happened, but clearly, this is more about this investigation from federal government, melissa. Into these autopilot systems and how they are used and how they are functioning out on the road in the real world. The time frame on this crash between when it happened and when it got to nhtsa seems more compress compressed. Whats your thinking . Hard to say. Because the accident happened on friday and the first news reports came out yesterday afternoon, that it wasnt until then that the person involved in the crash or the local newspaper in pennsylvania put one and one together saying wait a second, is guy says he was in autopilot mode, the it is not uncommon after a high profile event, that you have to come out and say that happened to me, too. Later on vest garretts find out that it wasnt the case. What they claim to have happened didnt happen. Unintended acceleration cases involving toyota a number of years ago. There were people who said my car just took off on me. Later on, so hard to know exactly what happened. Still need more details. Thanks so much in chicago for us. Whatever has happened to this stock or allegedly happened with this stock over the past ten day, there has been a lot of new, the stock has traded like a champ. Ten days ago, it was at 1. 88 and change and now, its well 200 despite this news. Is that trading a function of people thinking the solar city element here is not something that can go through. I think thats, if you look at the longterm vision of elon musk and how he wants to integrate both the transportation side residential solar, essentially make the world safe from fossil fuel, very admirable, impressive. Clearly, there are synergies. What should tesla be valued in the middle of that. I think thats a good point, but within the same time point, solar cities shares have also gone up. If you think the deals not going to go through why would the stock go up if theres a bailout . If the tok, if its viewed as bailout i think its exposed the value in solar city. I really do. I think this deal is is very important. I think people realize this stock is getting thrown out on capital issues and concerns about free cash flow. On the tesla trades. I think the number one thing that takes the stock down is production numbers. When people say production should be x and youre subbed wii 10 or 15. But they say it should be x. People have stocked the community, were okay if its 20 less. Theyre not really held to the flame when it comes to production number, but that will be the number one reason why the stock fails. Everyone gives it the battery issue. The technology advancement. All these different wild cards of how were supposed to value the stock. Ultimately, if you cannot produce a car, its not. Zwl come up, a top adviser told its customers they cannot sell stocks during the fallout. One says the company did not act in the best interest of investors. Later, think it cant get any worse for beating down Deutsche Bank in think again. Why one trader is makinging a 1 million bet on new lows ahead. Much more fast after this. Mary buys a little lamb. One of millions of orders on this companys servers. Accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. But with Cyber Threats on the rise, marys data c