For earnings, and the reason why we really hone in on this is because of the move intraday and the impact on the supply chain even though there were already reports that there were problems with the suppliers. So another fall on todays session. With the reports, seen reports like this before and they have proven to be incorrect, and youve seen the stock act completely the opposite in the weeks to follow, meaning the stock has rallied. What scares me more about tech is not the apple necessarily, the comments we heard from juniper earlier this week and the comments from seagate. I dont want to try to connect the connects, but what does it mean for ibm . Thats what concerns me about tech, not necessarily this apple news that we have seen in the past. Okay. But i dont think were hearing if enterprise is the concern, i dont think were hearing that out of intel. I realize intel has challenges in the pc market and theres other places in their business and not until we get it across the board. When i think about apple, also, talked about Different Levels of the stock. You know, i look at 111 on the stock and look trading back up through the 200 day. This guy has done it three times in the last two and a half years and failed at two of the three so i think apple doesnt climb straight through, obviously reacting to headline news. Again, guy is referring to the Dialogue Semiconductor news that we got a couple times out of germany being a leading indicator with whats going on with true apple demand. Other parts of the emerging world arent going to adopt like china has. Its very possible, but i think overreading this news today is absolutely crazy after a run in the stock weve had. You know, when tim points out the 200day moving average havent seen that level in apple or holding that level since october, november last year. Right. So thats important and its making a series of lower highs, so that is concerning, but i think weve been through this before, as guy kicked off the show. I think all of this stuff is sort of old. For me im in it and im looking to add actually on weakness. All right. Whats your view . For me its a bit concerning because im trying to connect the dots. As a macro guy looking at the big picture. Intel reporting on tuesday, so this sets up as a phenomenal catalyst, a great trading catalyst, particularly if you want to trade intel against it and you think theres a slowdown, the way intel is trading use 33 as your stop if you want to be short on that. The other thing i would say in general, remember at the end of last quarter, tim cook said something happened in the world we didnt really understand what was going on. Now were at end of this quarter, and it seems like maybe they havent gotten out of that hole. Well see what happens, but i would be concerned about this. Im glad you brought that up actually because he said something to the effect of it was a sudden change in the last in the latest month, and here we are sitting on this nikkei report. Again, this is a nikkei report, so we dont really know, you know, how its not from the company, in other words. This nikkei report saying that they are cutting back production because of weaker demand for the iphones. Its interesting, you know, you wonder it sounds familiar to what bob iger said back in august about some. Things that he was obviously completely different business, but the landscape changed very quickly. Youre saying that maybe the landscape is changing. I will say this. I agree with what tim is saying. I dont think you can say seagate juniper, tech is a wreck. Ibm on monday and intel on tuesday. If those things start to fail then you can Start Connecting the dots as b. K. Said. Were about 2. 5 off the alltime highs on the s p and the cows. Gone through a week where financials came out as the best performing sector this week even though earnings were not in any way spotless, problems with every single Earnings Report that came out so does this set us up poorly in a way . Think about what we have to deal with, this weekend. Doha and Imf World Bank meetings, Impeachment Vote in brazil, rumors of a china policy statement that supported chinese shares this week despite the fact that data was bert out of china. Yeah, its not crazy to think markets could be pulling back next week. Got an ecb meeting for a market thats is having to have some positive suppression in the ecb and the fed the following week which you really should be preparing for. As i said, even though they are not going to go, not sure they will go in june. You dont have less fed going forward. You have more fed which equals more volatility. Volatility has been too long. Well talk about it a little bit in oil. When you look at the marketplace and the s p and the pricetoearnings ratio, usually sell the pricetoearnings ratio when it gets to 18. 5, 19 times on the s p and buy it at 16. 5, 17. Were right there. It is a trading range and i think it remains so. Cautious going into this week, cautious going into next week . What makes me cautious, the one thing that i looked at and stuck out like a sore thumb, the ovx was up 10. 5 , the all volatility, we said 44 was a critical level of support. It held. Now, listen, crude did not sell off commensurate with a 10. 5 move in the ovx but its clear that people positioned themselves for something this sunday so that to me was somewhat worrisome but i understand whats going on. What do you do going into the next couple of weeks like were having . Youre bearish, but do you keep the bear positions on . Or do you pull back . I do, and the reason why, youve got a great risk reward. I can use the high of this week or last week as a stop for trading positions so i dont have much of a risk. I might have 1 , 2 risk to the upside, but if everything does fall apart, doesnt need to fall apart like i think it may, it could just be volatile because we have multiple events coming up, as tim mentioned. That could be enough just to have the market pull back 3 to 5 . 3 to 5 the next couple of weeks . Rallied 10 in the next month so why not 3 to 5 , perfectly natural, normal. The one apple supplier that could mean that could be facing even more pain and could mean more pain for apple as well as the tech trade. Earnings season now in high gear, as you know, and the highly anticipated opec meeting is this weekend. What matters more, oil or earnings . Our ste grasso has the answer. Hes grooving. Get a little swagger. This is my wedding song. Fantastic. If you look at this, we talked about which matters more, earnings or oil, and i think this chart everyone talks about the correlation, but i think this chart really eskimoses it pretty well. If you look at this, we have oil here. You see back to the highs here, 2134. Where was oil . 60. 72 so you know thats what youre eyeballing there. I dont think we get there any time soon, but if you look here, you wind up seeing the leading, leading basically oil winds up leading the s p. See this drops, the s p, takes a little bit longer to drop. You see a little bit of a lag there. You see it rally. Same type of thing so what were shooting for in the s p is this number right here. Thats the real resistance because as were climbing, when you look at the s p, unless we breech or cross over this powerful enough then we make another high in the s p cash. We dont want to do this. This is all for not. Focus in. Where did you see oil . Where did you see the s p . 47. 90. Tim and i have had a long going debate whether or not we cross over the 50 mark in oil, i dont think we do so, so i think thats the lid on the market. I think thats the lid on oil, but you also have a hell of a trading range here to trade against. So if you want to look here. Ins the s p cash. These are the numbers. Key in on that. This is my most important number. Thats flat on year, so if you dont have the stomach to watch this thing trade all the way down to the 200day moving average. This is where you bail on the market, this is where you buy it unless we break through here. Then you bail and you get b. K. s market, and i think we visit 1865 again in the s p if we breach the 200day moving average 2014 to the downside. We trade against flat on the year up through 2116 or so. Those are the bottom line levels. Correct. Tim, where do you stand on that . Mark go on yesterday saying we could go to 22100, but we usually trade, as grasso mentioned, to an s p valuation of a pe of about 18 and so thats going to hold, so thats going to keep us from going much higher. Look, i think the s p is going to trade somewhat sideways from here. I think actually though the correlations are going to break apart because, you know, steve and i do disagree on oiler, and my word of the day is conlessens. Said that three times. How many cs in there . Coffin lessens which is recovery from a dreadful illness in the medical sense or really applied to anything and theres a slow gradual recovery. Thats whats going on. Spell is really quick. Con okay. Its a friday show. Youre at a place, back to october of 09 on u. S. Reit counts. I agree 50 is a tough hurdle to come. I think its not tethered to oil like it used to be. Mentioned, down to 351. Thats an incredible number which is very bullish for oil. Listen, sunday to me its a huge wild card and its manifesting itself in the ovx which spiked today so i do think oil and the s p will trade in unison for a while. Yeah, for me, i absolutely think, that and, you know, if you look at, the rig count has dropped precipitously but production really hasnt. It started to a little bit but still kind of flat lined. Off a Million Barrels a year ago and the rigs are and that they have on are pumping a lot of oil and the last time we even had production cuts from saudi arabia which was way back in the 80s, grasso remembers this time, but would i say when you look at what happened to oil and saudi production they went down together. They went down together, so i think oil goes lower, much lower. All right. Coming up next, did you miss the move in the banks . Relax, because our guys say they may have found a group of stocks that could pleasantly impress investors and the one dow stock that traders are betting could see alltime highs as soon as next week and later, tax day is monday so were giving you the four best stocks to buy with your refunds and the names might surprise you. Were back right after this. This car . Came courtesy of james and patricia thompson. This tv . Margaret and tom lee. The championship game ball . That was sebastian diaz. Good guy. And all i had to do was ask for their money and pretend i was investing it. Their life savings is now my lifestyle. Female announcer dont let someone else live the life youre saving for. Find out if youre dealing with a registered investment professional at investor. Gov. Its a great first step toward protecting your money. Before you invest, investor. Gov. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to fast money. The financials posting lackluster results yet those stocks clocking in as the best performing sector this week so kicking off our top trades tonight were asking if there were any other groups of stocks that the market is getting wrong and could see a similar surge next week. B. K. Ers . Its not thursday and im going to do a throwback and talk about names we havent talked about in a while, fertilizers stocks, particularly potash. Take a look at whats going on in the grain and wheat and corn starting to form a bottom. Potash bounced against 15. Gotten completely crushed, but i think thats something you want to look to next week. A time on fast money when we used to talk about the fertilizer stocks every single night. And if it was were be doing twofor tuesday, mosaic is a place where core business food inflation to me i think is something that will catch the feds eyes but meantime increasing headline inflation. A lot of these guys were priced for dead. The chart is very interesting. Convalescence. Its four syllables and haiku. You can use it in a second line. Got to use it in one or three. B. K. Used a word, if youll recall, what did he use before or anything i say. Syllable. I forget. Mcdonalds. The group is mcdonalds. They report on thursday, i believe, and i think people listen, this stock is in a whisper of alltime highs. Timmy has talked about it for a while. A real good chance this stock continues to go to the next level. Not a broken stock, but its a stock that i think people continue to underestimate. Next up, twitter, the social media giant broadening its reach overseas announcing a new manager for china. The move also included a new twitter account dedicated to updates on the Greater China market, very mysterious, tim. Well, i dont know that this is anything big for the company underlying. They have hired a marketing head and the region is very important. International is now 35 of the business. A couple years ago it was only 15. Twitter is growing internationally. The ability to stagnate different parts of the world, actually quite interesting because i can up my china list and the fact that they are recognizing the potential that this is truly a global platform, whether they are accepted in china or not, i dont think this matters. This is not i think something to go out and run and buy the stock for. Still the same issues monetizing. Advertisers whether they are here or there clearly still unsure of the underlying value and thats what will really turn the stocks. For a couple of night weve been running stories on how these guys on the desk use twitter to trade and the response has been absolutely staggers and that those people dont know how to use twitter. They dont know how to use twitter to their advantage. Right, and thats twitters problem. They havent done a great job at portraying them. And thats the problem with the stock, right, and in my view, if the twitter management focused on the couple hundred million users that they have, that love the product and want to use the product but doesnt really know how. Guy and i have talked about it. Exactly, dont grow it. Should be focusing on the advertising arm. They are in search and Google Search now so a lot of times weve talkedbout it. Tweaked that last night. You know what people said to me . You dont need to be logged in when you search on google. People dont know how to ice twitter. They didnt know tweet deck existed. I have a very difficult time. The Little League guy. I got the twitter application on my phone now. You bought it in a box . Yeah, it was a small box. Did you put the disc in . Did you download the flop . Obviously this is nonsense that were talking about. We have to decide. Its a good product that we all love and seen other good products that this doesnt translate. Doesnt make good investment. Next up, car trouble, another bad sign for the auto industry. News that Consumer Sentiment fell which is a bad indicator for auto sales and also of note the chairman of Fiat Chrysler talking about a merger with any of the three big automakers in detroit. Gm seemed to be conspicuously off that list, mentioned volkswagen, toyota and ford were potential candidates. Grasso . In order is down 6 and gm is out of the picture and thats down basically 10 year to date and this one is down 18 year to date. Is it a worth a flyer at 7. 50 . I think so. I think you can maybe bounce this thing to maybe 20 to the upside but you must bail out on the stock. Its a lowpriced stock. If it trades below 7 its a big move for a lowpriced stock. I think you need to bail out of it, but i think its worth the flyer because its the most beat up and you get guys covering shorts with the potential of any m a. Going back to the notion that sales, auto sales are showing cracks. Already we know with a surge in problems with subprime loans about increased promotional activity and now were seeing Consumer Sentiment tick lower and we picked this up up off of phil lebeaus twitter feed saying that this is historically correla correlated. The auto market is not just a u. S. Market. Its a Global Market and the u. S. Is no longer the biggest automarket in the world. Chinas auto sales this quarter, got concurrent data a couple days ago, up 8 . Not every place is falling apart. Certain places in europe are doing quite well. Were in a much more mature cycle and ford and gm reflect that but i dont think their business is dying. Ford and gm could be bad with the economy. Were talking about m a, still able to guy. Still ahead, something usual is happening in shares of netflix ahead of earnings next week which has some traders scratching their heads. What that is. Im melissa lee and youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide and other what else is coming up on fast. Hoe me the money well show you the money all right because weve got the four stocks to buy with your tax refund money right up to the deadline. Hasta la vista, baby. Hastra, all right. What one tech stock stuck in the mud is about to do. Well tell you what the name is and how to play it for a major breakout. Now you can, with the luxuriously transformed 2016 lexus es and es hybrid. Hey, jesse. Who are you . Im vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. Orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. Over time, your money could multiply. Hello, all of you. Get organized at voya. Com. 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