michelle. >> here's what we know about investigation in boston right now. video shows someone setting down a bag. authorities have said, quote, they have solid leads, but no arrest has been made yet. the boston federal courthouse has been evacuated due to an unrelated bomb scare. expecting a joint news conference from boston at 5:00 p.m. you'll see it live here on cnbc, to bring you the very latest. >> in the meantime, as law enforcement officials get set for that news conference at the top of the hour, amid premature reports that an arrest had been made in the marathon bombing, scott cohn is in boston with the very latest details for us. scott? >> good afternoon, bill. let's first get you up to date on the situation at the federal courthouse, which is about two miles from here. as you said, there was a bomb threat an hour or so ago, unrelated to the situation at the bottom marathon and the attacks there. our producer on the scene says that he has seen fire trucks enter the area, firefighters go into the building, agents with dogs go into the building, but notably, no bomb squad going into the building. obviously, the vast majority of bomb threats phoned in anywhere turn out to be false and we'll hope that that is the case. and here's how the day sort of plaid out. early in the morning, or i should say, with around mid-morning, on boyle boylston street, we saw quite a bit of activity, agents combing the area. perhaps they're combing it one last time for clues before they reopen, but we don't know that. we just know that there was activity from the ground to the rooftops as they were trying to gather more evidence. we do know that the evidence thus far, the search, has been fruitful. authorities released pictures of, more pictures of praguemefr of the bomb, including pieces of the pressure cooker it's believed to encase it, pieces of the bag it's believed to have been contained in, even pieces of the shrapnel, which included bbs and small nails that were put in those pressure kroorcooko inflict maximum damages. this afternoon, there was an erroneous report that someone was about to be arrested or somebody was in custody. and the fbi soundly knocking that down and urging the media and public to heed news only from official sources. we can say that based on video evidence that we're hearing from authorities, about people putting bags down at the site of the finish line and various other things, that they have what they call solid leads. but we'll repeat, again and again this afternoon, somebody placing a bag down at the scene doesn't mean that's the bomber. but if you're looking for the bomber, that means it's someone you want to talk to. >> scott cohn in boston, thanks. we're waiting for that news conference. law enforcement officials out of boston coming up in a little bit. we're just moments away from american express first quarter earnings. first, let's talk about today's market action. michael yoshikami from destination wealth management, david sowerby, and bruce mccain from key private bank. michael yoshikami, what do you make of the tremendous or at least the pickup in volatility this week? >> it's crazy, i'll tell you. well, it's obviously highlighted by the horrible events going on in boston, but we're actually moving into, right now, earnings season, bill. the market has been really advancing on the assumption earnings season would probably be okay. that's why we're up so much. but all of a sudden now we have bank of america blow up in our face, and we're thinking, what's exactly happening with earnings at this point? so i think people are going to be watching very, very closely, the earnings numbers and i think the american express numbers going to be very telling. >> david sowerby, is that your assessment as well? >> i think the market's due. it's due for that normal once a year, 5 to 10% sell-off. we've seen the s&p 500 up 17% from the november lows, small-cap stocks up 21% from those lows without any real meaningful set back. stocks are great for the long-term, but in this environment, where sentiment, we've got unusually bearish quickly. we've got more weakness in store. >> so you would wait. this isn't necessarily an entry point for you, yet? >> no, if i had cash on the sidelines, pretty much at the close of today, the average stock in the s&p 500 was off about 7% from its 52-week high. the average technology stock, 11% from its 52-week high, if we get another 3% to 5% down in stocks, then i think that cash on the sidelines should be absolutely put to work, because the next two or three years still bodes quite well for the stock market relative to most other asset classes. >> i may have to break in momentarily when those american express earnings come out. but first, jerry webben, let me ask you, the fear has been this week with news out of china, some of the economic data that we've gotten here, that maybe the global growth rate is slowing down. do you sense that at all? >> i think, yes, both in the u.s. and in china, we've seen some slowness in the emerging markets and europe remains extremely weak, but you've got to look at those growth areas in the u.s. with, that include auto sales remain strong, housing sector remains strong, personal consumption is not great, but it's okay, employment is better. >> all right, guys, let me break in. here we go. so they were expecting on american express $1.12, they got $1.15. so a beat, apparently, by 3 cents. the research, they expected $8.03 billion, they got $7.88 billion, sounds like a miss here, david sowerby. >> that will be the number, bill, it was not so much whether american express would meet or beat the earnings per share estimate, but they would likely beat on cost control, but the revenue number would be essential and we knew the first quarter was going to be weaker on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the first quarter, but 7.8 versus more of the bears at 8.0 or slightly lower, we're going to have really watch the earnings call and what kind of guidance they give, especially on revenue and spend. >> this is a story we've been worrying about through this whole cycle, that we've got cost cutting, but revenues have just not caught up. up until today, about 50% of companies have beat on the revenue side, so you can be hopeful, but obviously this is a disappointment. the financial sector, it hasn't as leveraged as it once was, it isn't going to produce by the large the earnings that it once did. >> one of the problems of bank of america, and i recognize that american express is a different animal, but in the same busy. historically, they're plagued by these historically low interest rates. it's tough to make money, michael yoshikami, when you're in that economy and markets are that low. >> it's impossible to make money on the margin. and i think it's important to recognize that what american express is probably getting hit on here is what's happening with tax rates, happened in the first quarter of this year, and the other issue that's really occurring is i think businesses are still holding back on spending. significant percentage of their revenue comes from businesses. and you know, on the long-term, also, we have to be very, very aware, american express, on the long-term, is going to -- >> they're having a fire drill here at the new york stock exchange. >> it was scheduled. >> pre-scheduled, exactly. it was scheduled already. so ignore the noise here happening around me. >> okay. >> very quickly, i want to get to bruce mccain as well, michael. finish your thought. >> my thought was, you have to be careful about companies like paypal, all these other very inexpensive swaywaways to colle money, it will be a hit on american express margins, eventually. >> bruce mccain, do you want to buy on these dips we've been seeing, or is it time to start taking money off the table at these levels? >> i think you need to wait a little bit. part of it is, there's still excessively positive sentiment and we're just in the early stages of washing some of that out of the markets, but there's no sign of recession either here nor most of the overseas markets, so it's an opportunity to laook at things that have ben washed out, once they finally bottom out in taking some positions for the longer term, absolutely. particularly in some of the overseas markets that have been hit more heavily than we have. >> right. >> i've got to dispute this sentiment notion a little bit. >> very quickly. >> sentiment is high, but it's not out of line, especially among retail investors. i think there's still dry powder. i don't think we're done with this yet. >> skepticism. especially after last week's number. >> you're not a day trader, don't day trade. >> good advice. thank you, guys. talk to you later. >> so american express missed on the top line, but beat on the bottom line. >> but the stock is not reacting all that much. >> no. yeah, so we'll have to watch it here in after-hours. we're also now waiting, ebay earnings, moments away. stay right here for instant analysis, just like we did with american express. >> then we'll talk to the gentleman of the big banks hired to research market trends for them. coming up, he sees three big sell signals that you cannot afford to miss. and later, possible new developments in boston as the fbi gears up for a briefing on its investigation into the deadly marathon bombings. we're going to go live to that event, top of the 5:00, stick with us. [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ welcome back. waiting for ebay's earnings, should be out any moment. jon fortt runs through the numbers that wall street is obviously anxiously awaiting. jon? >> bill, wall street would like revenue of $3.77 billion, about 62 cents in eps, and guidance, $3.95 billion in revenue, 66 cents in eps, although some analysts, these reports i've been looking at, point out 3.95 would be high seasonally, and 3.91, 92 might be a little bit more in line with what ebay would do. total payment volume on paypal is going to be an important metric, about 19% growth would be nice to around $40.2 billion. those are some of the key numbers to watch for when the release comes out, bill? >> jon, thanks very much. certainly, ebay stock has rew d rewarded investors in the past, despite the financial crisis, the dot-com movement bust, in the last two years, that stock has risen 2 1/2 times faster than the s&p 500. i know what you're going to ask, michelle, what kind of play is ebay right now, right? >> exactly. joining us right now is r.j. honavoi of morning star. what do you think the metrics are here? >> there's really three things to be looking for in the numbers. one is marketplace merchandise volumes. i think that's an important metric, because the company has been investing a lot of innovation on its core ebay platform, the marketplaces, and whether weapon continue to see growth. the second would be paypal margins, whether they can keep up with new competitors coming in, potentially a network access feed fee coming from mastercard later this summer. and how much traction they're gaining on the mobile side of the business, both the transactions and payments. i think that's the key cornerstone of the investment store hire and really something to keep an eye on. >> seen the market move all of a sudden, it's down 3% all of a sudden. the last couple of times we've had the ceo of ebay on, we've talked extensively about their attempt to migrate to mobile. how do you tell when you're making that migration successfully? >> the company reports on both merchandise volume numbers for its mobile business, as well as payment mobile, or payment volumes as well. i think as we continue to see acceleration on both those metrics, companies looking for $20 billion in both merchandise volumes as well as payment volumes from mobile devices this year. if we were to see an uptick in the guidance there or any commentary about increased momentum, that would get the market very excited. >> the stock is also moving here, as if we've got the numbers, but i don't have them yet, so we'll wait and see what they look like. >> let's bring in ron josey of jmp securities. what's one of the most important metrics you're watching when we finally do get the numbers? is it going to be the mobile processing payments, the market place payments, the margins when it comes to paypal? ron? >> oh, hi, yes. sorry. >> your turn. >> there's a few things that we'll be looking for. primarily, we're looking for domestic gmv growth. >> what does that mean? >> domestic gmv is the amount of commerce that went through their platform during 1q. as we know, it's been a little bit rocky in terms of a macro perspective on retail. so we're looking for that specific metric to talk about overall demand, and how well it's going in terms of their differentiated partnership with retailers and focus on merchandising. >> well, apparently we've got the numbers. nobody's telling me, but you can see it on the graphic there, 63 cents. they were looking for 62 cents. anybody have a volume number? we were lacking for $3.77 billion. i don't know if jon fortt is still there. okay, $3.75 billion. so a little on the light side there as well. and that's been something we've seen at lately from any particular company. the revenue, the top line has been coming in on the light side, hasn't it, ron? >> 63 cents ton bottom line is actually a penny beat from their guidance, and $3.75 is at the high end of their guidance. it's a little bit below what we were expecting, but i think it gets into what we were just talking about, in terms of potentially some of the retail issues we saw in 1q. and that's something that we'll be looking at as we get the volume number. >> r.j., the reaction in the stock appears to be negative, although it appears to be coming off the lows, but still down nearly 2%. would you react that way? r.j.? >> right now, might be a little bit of profit taking. the stocks had a nice run since analyst day last month. maybe people taking a little break, but i think the long-term story is fully in tact based on those numbers. >> jon fortt is off the phone talking to his sources there. what are you hearing, jon? what do these numbers look like on ebay? >> well, i think a key number here, bill, is guidance. as i mentioned, wall street was looking for $3.95 billion in revenue for this current quarter. it looks like ebay's got between $3.8 and $3.9. the midpoint, $3.85. that's even a little bit light of where some of the perhaps more realistic or even pessimistic people were aiming. ebay does tend to be conservative in its guidance, but i think that's low enough there might be some questions about exactly why they're guiding as conservatively as that sequentially. >> any word on mobile and how it looks? >> i don't have the release, i don't have the release in hand yet, but as soon as i have that, i'll dig through it for you. >> and to be clear, jon, you don't have any insight into why, yet, they would be guiding lower on the current quarter at this point? we're still waiting for that? >> i don't, but that is, not only below the number the street was looking for, $3.95, it's quite a bit, $100 million, below that, but it's even below the number that would have been seasonal based on what they hit in the current quarter. >> r.j., what about that? is there a seasonality to this? would you be surprised that they're guiding cautiously to the next quarter? >> no, it doesn't surprise me. the real key is what the full-year guidance is. if there were any changes to that number, i think they were looking for between $16 and $16.5 billion. if there were any changes to that, and i don't suspect there would be, that would give me a little bit more concern about second quarter numbers. but honestly, i think there's probably just some seasonality. and as you pointed out, the company does have a track record of being pretty conservative with its guidance. >> thank you both. down 3% right now in after-hours trading on ebay. thank you both for joining us. michelle? >> we've got to get to sue herrera. she has more breaking news from boston. sue? >> thank you very much, michelle. and we told you earlier that the federal courthouse in boston had been evacuated because of a bomb threat. they have now cleared that. they swept the building, they've given the all-clear. they are allowing people back into the building. a federal official telling nbc's pete williams that that bomb threat was unrelated to the terror incident in boston last week, but, nonetheless, out of an abundance of caution, they did evacuate that building. they've swept it. it has now been given the all-clear and people going back in. this ahead of a 5:00 p.m. news conference. you will hear and that see that live here on cnbc. back to you guys. >> sue, thank you very much. >> another feature of today's trade, we mentioned earlier, apple getting slammed, trading below $400 for the first time since late 2011. kate kelly has details on some of the hedge funds, investors getting hit on that. kate? >> thanks so much, bill. apple was off 5.5% after the end of the day and broke through the floor at midday, to the dismay of some of its biggest investors. one of the people that's large in apple in the hedge fund community is david einhorn, the green light capital fund manager, who held $1.3 million shares as of february 7th. a little rough math suggests that einhorn has lost $85 million since then, about $30 million of which happened today alone. einhorn isn't the only hedge getting bruised by apple either, just to borrow a turn of phrase from his own first quarter investor letter. filings suggest that while a number of hedge funds sold apple during its end of year spiral, some, including apple's management and glg partners used the dip to buy bigger stakes or stakes that they hadn't even had before. einhorn also used that decline to repurchase some shares he had in the third quarter, and overall, apple is still the top equity holding of the largest 50 hedge funds, at least as of end of year. ahead of apple's earnings report next wednesday, investors seemed to have turned overly bearish on the stock in the view of some money managers and the upside surprise, either on the quarterly earnings themselves or on the notion of balance sheet management, sort of engineering the cash on the balance sheet a little bit better, or pro investor, could move the needle back up. einhorn, for one, has spent recent months urging apple management to do more with that $137 billion in spare cash to return capital to shareholders, and any move on tim cook part's to do that, bill and michelle, i think, would no doubt be very welcomed, at least by the shareholder community. >> you would think so. kate kelly, thanks very much. >> thank you. >> so three strikes and you're out, out of the market, that is. when we come back, what may be the three market numbers you need to watch that signal that it's time to sell. >> and later, of course, all eyes on boston. the fbi will be delivering its latest findings on the devastating marathon bombings. keep it right here for the very latest developments. we'll be back in a moment. man: how did i get here? 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