into the market. >> and there he was. the man known as the god father says the market is setting the stage for a vigorous rally. ralph acampora will explain why. goldman sachs has been the big winner since the election. the bank's ties to what is being described as one of the largest financial flaws in history could be a red flag for investors. we have details on the important story coming up. and a survey says economists are skeptical of president-elect trump's growth plan. billionaire carl icahn appeared on halftime report earlier today. hope you saw that great interview. he is concerned that the money going into the market right now is coming from people who just don't study the market. >> there is a lack of stock for sale. yet on the buy side from what i consider a lot of investors that really don't study the market. they are giving it to people, giving it to a buyer of etf. they tell you the goal is to buy through a black box. there is nobody deciding is this a good stock. can you decide if it is a good value in the short term probably not. >> let's get to our "closing bell" exchange and talk about that with michael farr, cnbc market analyst who is standing by at post nine and rick santelli is at the cme in chicago. when you consider that we saw a record amount of money going into etfs in the early part of the quarter do you sense that we are now a late part, late portion of the cycle when the public starts to get in? >> yeah. look at what we had over the last couple of years. it's been flash crash. we had the financial crisis. we have had so many things to keep the retail public out of the markets. when you have had the last eight years of the same administration, same policies and really nothing to get you off the bench, so to speak, and get you back into the market or get you involved in the market place you can see why people who really don't have the sophistication or the time to analyze individual stocks just by the market because two thirds of the stocks go up with overall market. i don't think it is necessarily a bad thing to do quite frankly. the same way we have seen rotation that is why people are buying etfs because you can't pick financials one day and utilities the next day. >> this is the same strategy warren buffett has said, if you do nothing else in the stock market buy low cost and hang on to it. what is the problem if the broader public does that? they are recognizing limitations when it comes to picking stocks by doing so. >> you can't just listen to half of what mr. buffet says. he says if he didn't manage his own money he would buy an index fund or etf. he says americans are funny and love stocks when they are expensive and hate them when they are cheap. as the market is making new highs enthusiasm builds and people feel bullish and want to participate and they always get into the last leg of the ride. they often don't have the tenacity to hang on when it is most important. you have to know things are expensive. >> if you look in the survey from april, 52% of the public is in stocks that is down from 65% before the crisis, it's not like we are at the case where everybody is piling into the market. >> high markets can certainly go higher. the dow is 6,000. green span wasn't wrong and went up 33% and then went up over 11,000. so this can go higher and there is more money on the sideline. you can't throw caution to the wind if you get in rather than etfs i like looking at stuf that has been hurt and maybe consumer sta staples and health care and tech. >> i'm curious where you stand. you and i have been in the business about the same amount of time. i don't know what ever happened? >> let me phrase this delicately. if there are problems in the future i think the highest probability of where they would be felt would probably be in etfs. having said that the cubs won the world series this year. nobody likes statistics more than i do. statistically speaking that was an event that every time they became part of the playoff scene statistically you had to bet against them. and what i found is when you take the mentality of a contrar yn and anybody involved in trading understands it and likes it. some of the biggest moves in history do occur sometimes and they would go against the grain of that mentality. one final point 1999-2000 the nasdaq was at 5,000. i know it is higher than that today but not a whole lot. you can look at this in a variety of ways and in the final analysis i think the particular rally is either going to be a biggy in the three to five year horizon or fail miserably. i think i can come up with many answers that are more optimistic in terms of performance. the proof is always in the performance of the market place. >> it's not just about the retail public. there are institutions which is in a way been as much to blame if you want to call it blame for not participating in the equity market. i think it lowered the equity allocation and lowered the return targets to about seven percent and yet the market is up 14% this year. >> and i think what you just stated i think shows you why the market has been pushedo aggressively higher when people start to rotate within the equity market you wind up having the chase event, financials people complain we are overbought. i stated overbought and overowned are two different things. you can unwind overbought but you have to allocate those financials. that's why the chase will still happen day on, day off. there is still a chase for equities. >> wish we had more time. it is clear that rick is still basking in the glow of the world series. we'll see you later. president-elect trump said economic agenda could feel growth. wall street economists are skeptical of the number. >> the president-elect and his team said their plans could leave to 3%, 4% growth. cnbc found very few economists see 3%. pr 2.3% and that is up from 1.7 this year and then gets to 2.5%. there are some gains just not nearly as much as the president-elect is estimating. 2017-2018 averages. jeffreys is the top. hsbc, they come in at 2.5. citi group 2.2. jp morgan 1.9%. chief economist doesn't think congress lets the new president get away with such big deficits. here is a red light/green light. infrastructure spending seen as positive. deregulation, as well. tax cuts and repate reegz. strong dollar could hurt earnings. trade policy is a huge negative and then the fed could be potentially more hawkish. trump adviser said on squawk box every time somebody bets against trump they are disappointed. i think economically that is true, as well. that remains to be seen. >> or whether economists' forecasts are right. let's bring in an economist who is not so skeptical. cnbc senior contributor mr. larry kudlow. >> thank you. thank you. i am an optimistic. i think kellyann conway has it right. six percent seems like a reach. reagan had sixes and sevens coming out of the deep recession. we are a little different place in the business cycle. if mr. trump gets the kind of business tax rate reduction for largely small companies along with the expensing i don't see why you can have a period of percent or five percent growth. not forever but i don't see why you couldn't have a big bump up. the animal spirits are improving, big story today the wall street journal poll shows confidence is picking up significantly since the election. forecasting is difficult. on the other hand these things have happened before in the past. >> so how do you reconcile the street at 2% with the trump administration at 4% to 6%? >> can i first give deep and lasting respect to larry kudlow and his ideas? the couple of things i don't buy. they don't buy that congress will give him all he asks for. that is not the fault. i think they don't buy the effect of all of this stuff. there are big numbers for potential gains. there are huge numbers built in for potential gains from kaks tax cuts. there are a good amount who say a tax cut that looks like the one you guys have built which gives a lot of rebates and cuts to the wealthy doesn't end up juicing growth as much as you guys think. >> steve liesman, lower marginal tax rates your take home pay goes up. you are rewarded for work ethic and success and investment and risk taking. i think the incentive model works. you can quarrel about the a exact number. >> people have done very well. the idea that you are going to juice the incentive to work even harder doesn't seem like -- >> all i will say is this. i have a great book for you to read. christmas shopping called "jfk and the reagan revolution." we go through the numbers very carefully when kennedy and reagan lowered marginal tax rates the economies exploded. i believe the same thing can happen now. you are talking about a decline. >> i understand all of that. principles don't change. i don't know about the exact numbers. in the website i think it is something like 3.5 or 4, not 6. if the dollar rises on the strength of faster gdp with more business incentives, today's numbers show how weak business investment is, that will stop inflation. that will stop inflation. strong growth with king dollar will not cause inflation. just in reverse, inflation will remain calm. real rates will go up. i get that. i think the stock market will have a great rally but there will be corrections. >> that raises the next question about trade. it goes back to whether there is going to be -- whether the administration is at odds with itself on the issue. >> when you consider today they announced a trade repfor the administration. i want to get your thought on that. the impact of the view of the trump administration going forward on trade when we have known peter a long time. he is very much a hawk on trade with china and i would think nothing of trying to impose those tariffs and being protectionist. what is your view of that part of the economic policy coming out of the administration here? >> we do know peter very well. peter and i agree on some things and we disagree on other things. my view -- this is just my personal view. i'm representing no one but kudlow. i think president-elect trump will turn out to be a negotiator. and i think he needs to change some of the treaties, the pacific treaty, the mexican treaty because there have been violations or the rule don't look good. he should defend american interests. i have no problem with renegotiating the art of the deal. and i still believe that mr. trump would use tariffs only as a last, last resort. that is my view. i may be right. i may be wrong. i haven't spoken to them about this in a while. he is a negotiator. by the way, we should negotiate currency stability along with trade rule. >> very good. always good to see you, my friend. >> see you later, bud. one of the worse performing stocks on the s&p 500 bed bath and beyond after reporting q 3 profit well below analyst expectations. the home furnishing's retail, the cfo attributing to decrease in number of transactions in stores. down by 14% year to date. other specialty retailers weighing on the consumer discretionary sector. that is worst performing in the trade. take a look at names like gap down between 5% and 6%. certainly a tough day for retail. >> i wonder if it was the data this morning? >> even though the gdp number showing consumption up 3%. >> for november -- >> exactly. 45 minutes to go in the session. we have red arrows. the dow struggling to hold 19,900. s&p is down seven. there is nasdaq down 33. goldman sachs has been red hot since the election up 32% and far outpacing the rest of the dow components. we are going to look at why there could be a red flag on the horizon. why ralph acampora says a rally is coming in the market. he will make his case when he joins us live coming up. what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley we're opening more xfinity stores closer to you. visit us today and learn how to get the most out of all your services, like xfinity x1. we'll put the power in your hands, so you can see how x1 is changing the way you experience tv with features like voice remote, making it easier and more fun than ever. there's more in store than you imagine. visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. we have breaking news on barclays. eamon javers with the news for us. >> something unusual here the department of justice saying it is suing barclays to recover civil penalties for fraud in the sale of residential mortgage backed securities. this dates back to the great recession that looked like settlement talks have broken down and now the department of justice is taking action. they say they are alleging that barclays engaged in fraudulent scheme supported by misrepresented mortgage loans. according to the press release the department of justice put out. unusual here they are naming two defendants by name. in the press release it says that these entities and these individuals quote fraudulently sold tens of billions of dollars and misled investors about the quality of the mortgages backing those deals. so this is an old story but a new action here being taken by the department of justice. >> thank you. goldman sachs has been a big winner of the trump rally. the stock soared 32%. the wall street journ al reveald goldman sachs being tied. >> kent brown joins us now. >> goldman sachs had deep involvement in this malaysian government investment fund where 3 billions to the $5 billion was stolen. >> the question was whether goldman sachs -- >> investigation is what did goldman know? raised bonds for this fund and the question is did goldman know anything was wrong and should have reported it. that is what everyone is looking at. >> people will read the piece and look at what has happened and reported in terms of the problems. a couple of names involved in the trump administration. at least you bring up the fact that some of it was run by him and he didn't intervene to stop anything going on there. you also mentioned names of other people filling positions that he vacated at the firm. you also name ceo similarly not necessarily stopping this activity. the question now becomes if people start to get more upset and pointing more fingers about this activity does it implicate all figures as they had a big management change. >> one thing we try to show is the decisions on the fund were made at the highest levels. it was one of the most profitable clients for the two years. some people were pointing fingers at the guys in asia and say these guys were doing it and lying or keeping the information secret and close but when we were able to show is that these decisions were made and reviewed and organized at the very top. we have very good examples of the topics after the firm trying to cultivate the prime minister and people involved. >> the difference is whether they knew enough about exactly what was going on to have realized this is basically theft. that's the issue. should they have known this seems like an unusually large amount of money they were able to raise. should they have known it went a step further? >> they say they didn't know. this was a government-run fund running by the prime minister. you have to assume that things were okay. it is a pretty serious organization. there were a lot of red flags. so why did they need to raise so much money so fast? why did they pay massive -- $600 million in fees. when a bank raises money for a government you get one percent of the fee. it is very small, very unprofitable. they were making 10%, 11% of asse assets. >> there were several employees raising flags about this. there were internal controls triggered. it was a tuszal within the firm about what to do with it. >> one of the things is people who really did raise objections were stumped down by people at the firm. >> it was an interesting read in the wall street journal today. thank you. merry christmas. we are heading to the close. if you're just tuning in waiting for the dow 20,000 party going to have to wait yet again another day. down 40 points now. 100 points away from the magic number. going to explain why coming up. weight watchers, one of the best performing stocks on wall street today because of a big loss by a shareholder oprah winfrey. details we think when we come back. too bad weight watchers is not in the dow. it is one of the big winners after oprah winfrey announced she just lost more than 40 pounds while on the company's plan. she spent about $43 million on her weight watchers stake back in october of 2015. today's gain makes her investment worth $77 million. however, that stock is still down nearly 50% this year as the company faces increasing competition from free weight watching apps. >> a lot of pressure on a person. swing the market cap one way or the other based on how that is going. >> that is the star quality of oprah. she loses weight and weight watchers takes off. the cult of oprah winfrey is still in tact. >> he had a big interview with michelle obama. >> 30 minutes to go into the close. the time now for a cnbc news update. >> here is what is happening. the u.s. returning half of the biggest american base on japan's okinawa island. south korea's constitutional court holding the first hearing in the impeachment case against that country's president. the court decided to allow the admission of documents dismissing objection by president's legal team. preparations for presidential inauguration are underway in washington. the committee announcing the official event start january 19. and the country's oldest known living gorilla celebrating her 60th birthday today at the columbus zoo. colo was the first gorilla in the world born in a zoo and surpassed the expected life expectancy by 20 years. her longevity is putting spot light on better medical care for zoo animals. that's the cnbc news update. >> she looks pretty good. >> she looks really good. so do you. >> i wasn't phishing. we have a news alert on uber. >> that's right. a saga for the company's self-driving car fleet. they were taken off the roads yesterday in california and the company is telling us that they are going to be headed to arizona. an uber spokesperson tells us our cars departed for arizona by truck. we will be expanding our pilot in the next few weeks and excited to have the support of governor. the fleet was taken off the road yesterday in a dispute with regulators. arizona's governor has been tweeting saying this is what overregulation looks like saying arizona would be happy to have the self driving cars in that state. it looks like uber has taken him up on the offer. other companies involved in the self driving car space like google and apple will be watching this closely. back to you. >> thank you. just picturing parade of driverless cars from california to arizona. >> the argument is we have two people in them so they are not driverless. if they are -- i don't know. we will see if arizona is more lean ynd. >> 30 minutes to go into the close. training from 20,000. it is almost below 19,900. s&p down six. russell down 11. this should be interesting. why investors should not be concerned about this recent pullback or side ways actions and why he thinks we could be in for another big rally. (fans cheering) because when you really, really want to be there... but you can't. (cheering) at cognizant, we're helping today's leading media companies create more immersive ways to experience entertainment with new digital systems and technologies. get ready. because we're helping leading companies lead with digital. they are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful. welcome back. on the floor here with santa claus or someone wearing his pants. >> it's the holiday season. i'm not in tomorrow because i have to cook for christmas eve. >> i hope people are aware of what a chef you are. let's talk about the santa claus rally. >> it is faltering a little bit today. i think we have had a very quick move. it's building a base. i think by next week we will go up. >> we have had the massive move since the election. and then a lot of people as we move into last couple of days of the year a lot of people consider next year they are not going to do this because taxes are going to be lower or at least that is anticipation. next year you are going to see the market rally back. >> ho, ho, ho. >> have a merry christmas. over to you. >> my cooking mentor there. the dow lower for a second day in a row. rare consecutive decline. while we are backing away from the 20,000 level again our next guest says the pause is just part of what he calls the presidential honeymoon period. he sees the rally going well into the spring of the new year. ralph acampora joins us from snowy minnesota on the phone right now. good to see you again. >> a lot of frustration. we have not been able to pierce 20,000. you think the side ways is a good thing. >> i agree. i'm just as frustrated. we love a rising market. there is an old saying the ones that go down the least are the new leaders. i'll tell you i don't want to be in emerging markets or gold. i don't want to be in retail. what is holding it nicely is industrials, financials, regional banks, energy and old tech. i think as you mentioned i'm a big believer in the honeymoon period. i like to look back at the reagan years. he had a very nice honeymoon that carried into april of the first year in office. i think trump will do that. you looking at maybe another 10% on the up side. >> that 10% to the upside you are talking about looking for a huge move now that underlying dynamics have changed. >> i'm only talking the first quarter. 10% on the upside first three months of the year i think everybody will be happy with that. >> does it keep going? do you have a sense of longer term how this looks? >> longer term actually if we get a move in the first months of the year i think we probably set ourselves up for a correction. after that correction i think you can have a real i don't know 24, 25, 26,000. >> can it do that if the dollar keeps going higher? we are 14-here high right now. as we know that can put a cap on earnings here in this country and would hurt our exports. what do you think? >> that's why i think after his honeymoon period the first quarter of the new year i think we will have a pause, we will have a correction. i think part of that will be as you just mentioned and rightly so the strong dollar i think will have an impact. we can't go straight up forever. >> i understand. >> by the way, ralph, looking outside of the markets there has been talk about how crude oil will have a pretty good year after its tough here. the dollar is up four years in a row. any sense into what it comes to commodities or gold whether these are places that you think are poised for gains? >> not for a while. if i'm correct and we have a decent first quarter and the dollar is as strong as it is the last place you want to be is gold. i think gold is breaking down. it's coming towards very critical spot. a couple years ago that was very important. >> always good to talk to you. thanks very much. happy holiday. >> thank you. >> we have 20 minutes left in the trading session. the dow is down 34 points. we will discuss whether you should sell sidividend stock winners. why the one under the radar indicator that could give investors a better indication of where interest rates are heading and what it is telling us right now coming up. in the market today the danger is that you have all this money pouring in in america into etfs and etfs you just buy these and i always question the fact that if you are buying these stocks and don't know what you are holding you are prone to these periods of time when you're going to get -- could be some kind of crisis and could be a problem. >> that was carl ikahn today. shares are getting hit on the back of that interview on his concerns about index investing. wisdom tree down more than four percent. >> as we know the dow has been up eight percent since the election but is actually the under performer compared to highest paying dividend stocks inside the dow, names like verizon, chevron, boeing have seen double digit gains. we are worried it is time to take profits. joining us with their thoughts. >> the dividend payers were darlings of the street. low interest rate environment you can be paying to hold dividend payers. is it time to start lightening up? >> it depends on the sector. certainly consumer staples where your stock is trading with low growth and dividends and utilities certainly would like those sectors. if you look at it we look for companies that have dividends that are supported by growing earnings and free cash flow. this is a great environment for us right now. if you look at it consumer staples and utilities are down roughly 50 basis points. our fund outperformed by 500 basis points. there are opportunities but you have to be in the right ones. >> are you guys similarly take ag selected point of view? >> quality matters a great deal we can't do anything about what is going to keep something out of favor in the short run. we know from history you have a tendency to get paid a better dividend and you want to find companies that have a lot of room to grow dividend overtime. one of our biggest positionicize amgen raised from a dollar a quarter to 1.15. we are getting a real nice yield. you have a fantastic company underneath. you like a company like american tower. it is 2.2% which is less than ten year yield. >> growing by over 10% per year. we all know we use our cell phones more so they have the ability to grow free cash flows and grow dividends and that is a name we want in this environment rather than utility that can't grow their dividends by much. >> there is a lot of people who aren't necessarily picking stocks. it might just be in a broader etf that goes back partly. we just argue that they should move money to somebody who is a stock picker. is it as safe to be in a high dividend paying fund broadly as it might be with individual names? i imagine not. >> there are certain long duration fundamentals that work in an investor's favor even if they are betting on a sector or etf. about 40% of return from owning u.s. stocks has been from the dividend. there are other factors like quality and valuation that matter. i think the real key here in why i obviously like what we do is would i like to own this company? would i like to own this company? does it fit the great fundamental characteristics you are looking for? is it doing a great job on dividends? that is a wonderful blessing that comes to you if you stay with ownership for five or ten years you will get a blessing from that. >> thank you both for some thoughtful picks there in the dividend arena. >> less than 12 minutes to go. dow still down 25 points. s&p down five. the small caps pretty inasmuch everywhere you look we are moving lower except for the dollar which is moving higher. >> art cashin lurking. he will tell us what market on close orders are. carl ikahn saying the market is overvalued in the short term. two tell us whether they think icahn is right. ♪ we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley. welcome back. as promised art cashin stopped by and show market shows imbalance of $700 million to the buy side. i don't think that will put us over the top but it could happen. >> there is some buying. >> we have an update on the barclays story. eamon javers back with that. >> we told you the department of justice is suing barclays saying they caused billions of dollars of losses to investors. now we have a comment on that from barclays. they say barclays rejects the claims made in the complaint. considers the claims made are disconnected from the facts. we have obligation to shareholder to defend ourselves against unreasonable accusations. barclays will defend the complaint and seek dismissal at earliest opportunity. >> eamon javers with the latest. joining us now to discuss their thoughts on the markets is chief investment officer who joins us along with jeremy hill who is here. welcome guys. so what do you think about the fact that we are not closing with 20,000 but trying to hang on to 19,900. the trump trade has been more a psychological trade. it is prospects obviously of less ownerous tax regimes and regulation, all of those things we talked about. it has ignored some inconvenient economic. we saw some of those today. even though we had a nice gdp print i think going forward we are looking at the consumer and asking questions whether we are at full employment or not. that is a big effect on monetary policy which we had forgotten about in the last two weeks. >> you have been -- financials we talked about this last has worked out. goldman leading this rally higher. for how much longer are we getting a little overheated? >> the market might be a little bit ahead of itself. we don't this can that financials are. there has been a sea of change in financials. the newtratiew administration w less adver sarial. the regulation will be less of a war. trying to work with financials to make sure the system is regulated. we think financials have it easily 10% to 20% on the upside. we will buy this on any dip. >> google is one of the picks here. >> we think ruth is trully the adult in the room. we think they are absolutely the bleeding edge of the large mega cap tech companies. if you want to invest in ai it is google. >> another story. thank you guys. >> that will be in tomorrow's paper. thank you very much. we will take a quick break and come back with the closing count down. after the bell carl icahn saying he shouldn't have to sell his stocks even though he is expected to advise trump. chair weighs in on that potential conflict of interest. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. there's a denture adhesive that holds strong until evening. fixodent plus adhesives. just one application gives you superior hold even at the end of the day fixodent. strong more like natural teeth. i am benedict arnold, the infamous traitor. and i know a thing or two about trading. so i trade with e*trade, where true traders trade on a trademarked trade platform that has all the... get off the computer traitor! i won't. (cannon sound) mobility is very important to me. that's why i use e*trade mobile. it's on all my mobile devices, so it suits my mobile lifestyle and it keeps my investments fully mobile... even when i'm on the move. sign up at etrade.com and get up to six hundred dollars. coming up on the two minute mark before the market closes. dow down 34 points. art cashin said watch pot never boils. we are all still ubseszing over dow 20,000. john is tired of talking about it. didn't happen again today. we are down for the day we were starting at about 50 point range away from 20,000. when you consider even in this side ways range for about a month now or for about a week, when you look at one month shart we had a pretty good rally. leadership has failed us. goldman sachs was the leader of much of this rally today again down on the day. yesterday's leader to the upside, nike after the earnings report failed us again down today. the dollar index still hovering above the 103 level at 14-year high. it has been going side ways for a while here for about the same period of time that the dow has. that has taken a toll on gold down. we are back to a level we have not seen on gold since february. and the vix we bounced with a gain of 2.3%. >> volume remains low and not a lot of leadership. one thing changed. volume picked up and we had some reports saying dollar sales down. i look at this and say we are talking about store sales. volume is 60% of normal. >> thank you, bob. we will see you later. the dow finishing down 21 points. we start tomorrow 80 points away. stay tuned for the second hour of "closing bell." i'll see you tomorrow. >>. welcome to "closing bell." not dow 20,000 today. we dropped about 22 points on the bell of the close at 19,919. with only one more trading session to go before christmas and maybe that santa claus rally hasn't taken place. s&p dropping. the nasdaq down half a percent and russell small caps down nearly 1% dropping as equities retreat today. while the dow hasn't been able to hit the 20 k mark it is up since the election. is there still time to jump into the rally? if you have been on the sidelines we will tell you how to play it. joining me michael santoli, also with us fast money trader guy adami joins us from the nasdaq. good to have everybody on board. it's teasing us. >> it is very low energy. i don't think the market is doing anything unusual even though it seems tantalizing. by the way, the whole watched pot never boils saying, it is not true. a watch pot eventually boils but it seems like it takes forever. i think that is the take away here. i think it reminds me of other periods where you digest in a big rally. the market kind of slows its metabolism and you start to say maybe retail sales are going to come through. so now it's a little bit of a test to see if the fundamentals are going to be supportive enough. >> jobless claims this morning jumped, the wage gains weren't that great. the stuff that was supposed to be clicking wasn't clicking this morning. that said we have had weak data the market just ignored and today took it as an excuse to sell. >> feels as though it is manifesting itself. i think mike was eluding to. if you look nordstrum has had a huge run over the summer. the stock went from $40 to $60. a couple weeks ago we talked about a name like that that was too far too fast. and valuation wise just didn't make sense. i want you to take a look at no nordstrom from 60 closing today to 48 or so. the weakness in the retailers over the last couple of weeks definitely is something that i think a lot of people have been focussed on because dow 20,000 is within grasp. it is something you need to watch. the fact that the russell is down today is somewhat disappointing. >> is this the fact that it coincides with the christmas season coincidence or linked to some disappointment this time of year for the retailers? >> i wish i was smart enough to know the answer to that question. what i will say is this. a lot of the names had tremendous runs off the bottoms that they made over the summer. i think just on valuation they got way ahead of themselves because a lot of these mall stocks, macy's, they have structural issues that have not magically gone away. >> you're smart enough to say you don't know. welcome. you have a bearish view on the market. why? >> i think we are all talking about the 20,000 mark. i think if you look at a broader sampling of stocks we have been through that. the russell 2,000 since the election has moved about 14%, 15%. so what i think is coming together is simple old valuations that you take a world where you went from 0 interest rate and then added a huge 14% move valuations start to become really tricky. >> so let me ask you, are you in the short term cautious? is this basically the case for what we are seeing the market do now and then finds its footing after this? or do you think we put in a top and that is it? >> this is a tactical pull back. i think it is fairly healthy. i'm not sure this is a radical departure from positive equity market. the change is this break in leadership. you are moving from visible growth defensive back drop and moving into a more of a gritty leadership than i think we are going to. >> theme in middle schools these days. >> it's an interesting way to think about it. 2015 into the first part of this year was the year of very clean stocks. it was the businesses that were virtual, invisible platforms like facebook or amazon. now it is more about old economy, cyclical, moving stuff around. i don't think that that means the market character is better or worse. it definitely shows that the stakes are higher when it comes to an acceleration in the actual growth. >> as we approach the end of the year we are getting a sense of how the recent trend is shaping up here. gold looks like it could have a first positive year since 2012. wti crude looks like the best year since 2009. the dollar index is poised for a fourth straight gain longest since 1984 and then to zero in on today these are first back-to-back losses for the dow in six weeks. we have been on a tremendous tear. >> if you have been invested it has been hard to lose unless you is long-term treasuries which are down but not that much. it's basically been supportive of a lot of handing leadership. that's why it has been opportunistically you would think there is a chance to make a lot. it has been tough to surf those movements. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> rates were moving higher and our next guest says that trend should continue into 2017 based on the correlation to lumber future prices. >> link lumber prices with interest rates. >> i will get the same answers. lumber prices are great economic indicator. turns out they give us about a one year leading indication for what short term rates are going to do. i sent you a chart comparing lumber prices to the two-year treasury yield. lumber prices were up nicely in 2016 which suggests that short term interest rates are up somewhat in 2017 after that one-year lag. >> it sounds like this is a classic growth indicator type story. if you are saying short term interest rates moving up is that a recipe for fast economic growth? >> i don't know about fast economic growth. the economic growth that allows for a rise tends to show up first in lumber prices. you have to remember that lumber is the finished product made up of timber, electricity, labor and fuel. all of those are inputs and that meets the demand for home building. it's a great intersections and tends to find out ahead of the fed. >> new home building it seems as if that's pointing in the right direction and not so much dependent on economic growth as it will probably be supportive of economic growth. you look at renaissance macro pointing to this that leading indicators look pretty good. >> the other thing i'm wondering and i don't know if you weighed in on this specifically. bad bath and beyond getting creamed in the market. williams sonoma down 6%. seemed like they were included in home builders index. do you think these retailers are simply for other reasons not going to do well in an environment that you are describing? >> you are talking about brick and mortar retailers. it is a long standing story that their lunch is getting eaten by online. you can buy a toilet bowl brush or order one from amazon and have it delivered. >> let me ask you, too. we showed the lumber chart. incredibly volatile. we get huge moves in lumber that tell us everything is accelerated or about to crash. how do we know especially since what you are talking about is short term that we should be believing in this? >> the correlation over the many years has been great. hasn't been perfect. lumber prices give you about a one year leading indication for what housing related stocks are going to do. typified by the index. you can use the same leading indication to get an idea where that is going to go and the direction will be upward in 2017. that's cyclical description but that will have the tail wind of all of the echo boom babies in the late 20s and approaching the magic 33 year point which is average age of first-time home buyer. there will be a surge of those people creating demand. >> sounds familiar. just for our viewers we are showing lumber futures which you are emphasizing the last couple of weeks has been moving lower. you are describing is pricing that looks like it is set to move higher. before we let you go, too, i imagine this is supportive as we have been talking about for equity prices, but are you still in the mindset of sell the inauguration? >> sell next week ahead of stats related dip and buy that do dip to ride it. when you get a new president from the different party from the last one you get a rally into year end. you get a rally into the end of january as everybody is hopeful that the new guy is going to fix whatever problems they can imagine are taking place. when he has been in office for an entire week and hasn't solved all the problems then people get discouraged so you get a sell off from february to may. not a horrible one but not a great time. that may bottom should be a great time to catch the next part of the rally in 2017. >> thank you for joining us. appreciate it. quick last word like five syllable? >> that is like a haiku. i wish i could think of something clever. i will do a haiku for you on fast money. coming up on ten year anniversary which is why i am sequestered once again in this glass box because we are building a new set. i expect to see all of you folks there on january 11 for our ten year party. >> already on the calendar. we'll let you go. catch fast money next hour. scott wren if all of 2017's gains are priced into the market today starting at 5 p.m. donald trump picking carl icahn. what the investor could mean for the future of sec next. dow up almost nine percent since election. data shows half of the americans have missed out. is there time to get in? that is coming up. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. one of millin this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t. generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. icahn weighing in about who he would advise trump to put in securities and exchange commission. >> you should have more accountability and get someone who is chairman. that is going to stimulate investment. >> do you think it is imperative that whoever runs the sec next comes from wall street or has wall street experience? >> i don't think so. i do think -- i would tell donald is that you need more accountability. i don't know that he will listen to me. >> let's get reaction from harvey pitt and former chairman of the sec. welcome. >> thank you. >> more accountability. what specifically is carl icahn talking about? >> i think he is talking about having greater transparency and having the commission explain why it's taking the steps it's taking and assuring people that its rationale is consistent with various mandates. >> accountability is kind of going both ways after this because there is a sense that if carl icahn is advising while investing in companies does that pose conflict of interest? what do you think about these issues being raised? >> i think that they are basically -- mr. icahn is not making policy. he is simply advising the president-elect and in particular on dealing with regulations and potentially candidates to chairman of sec. president-elects over time receive a lot of input and the public doesn't know about it. they don't know who is advising or what their advice s. in my view this is a step ahead of what often transpires and is an opportunity for the public to know who will be rendering some of the advice. >> and plenty of ceos have heard what he said about them needing more accountability. we will see how that plays out. the other thing is epa but interested in your thoughts. mr. icahn has lobbied against what it is doing with rules that directly effect companies trying to get them rolled back. is that just business as usual or is there something about this that is uncooth or is there a reason why the public is having sort of the wool pulled over its eyes here? >> i think the important thing is that the president-elect has surrounded himself with a number of top flight advisers during this transition period. paul atkins who has served on the sec and is very bright and very able is one of the people serving. and there are other individuals in the perspective administration who are capable of giving the president-elect great advice. mr. icahn is another voice and he isn't necessarily the voice or even the voice that the president-elect will ultimately listen to. >> with a lot of talk about an intention by the trump administration to radekalically deregulate businesses. a lot will go after the root of the regulatory burden. does the chair have the ability to change the enforcement of that act? is it going to take congress to change much about it or can a new sec person change the way it is apply snd. >> it is a little bit of both. the sec chairman, first of all, is only one of five votes and there are going to be two commissioners from the democratic party and at most three from the republican party. so there will be a bipartisan approach to the issues. secondly, the statutes that have been adopted are in effect. no chairman can undo those. as to what cases may be brought that is an area where the commissioners can have influence and may choose not to bring specific cases. without legislation it will be very hard to unravel the entire course of these various statutes that have been enacted in the last 10 to 15 years. >> we will see if that gets close to the top or near the top of the list. it's already a full one. thanks for joining us. >> my pleasure. christmas is in just three days. do online shoppers have any chance of getting gifts under the tree on time? courtney reagan attempts last minute shopping next. startups are taking out loans. is this a warning sign for the private sector? that's coming up. what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley here is a look at the retail stocks getting crushed with nordstrom. names like wall administer down. will the last minute shopping make a difference? courtney reagan has been trying to get gifts. that's not your apartment? you were trying not to leave. >> that's exactly right. i spend too much time talking about retail and not enough time participating. i had shopping left to complete. stores would have been my answer since it is so last minute. i live in new york city so that means amazon prime is available to me as a prime member and it is available in new york as one of the 30 cities. they have a two hour delivery window so i tested it out. yesterday i ordered some items from the charity gift list. the selection as you might expect is a bit more limited than the full site. i was able to get almost everything from cook wear to socks to tools. i placed the order just before 2 p.m. i did have the camera here at the prime facility to catch the order being fulfilled which happened within eight minutes of the order being placed. the earliest window was 4 to 6 p.m. the delivery person left facility and did jump on the subway with our items in a big orange backpack. he got to me around 3:10 p.m. 50 minutes earlier than the window and an hour and a half after i placed the order. he came to the door, scanned the items and off he went. i'm not sure what happened to him after that point. you know many retailers are at least experimenting with modern day couriers for last mile delivery. nordstrom, target is experimenting with instucart. wal-mart is trying out grocery delivery in three cities though they haven't spoken much about it. yesterday i did try to shop for the same items on target and macy's but wasn't able to get same day delivery. i could have gone and picked it up at the store but i had to wash dishes and other stuff to do. amazon prime now is what we used. >> we are talking about new york city. i wonder what everybody else does? >> exactly. and so that is the thing. for some people it may be more convenient to pick up an item in the store. perhaps you are at work and you busy and you can order it online and you pass a target on your way home so maybe that is better for you or not sure about having items delivered when you are not home. retailers are telling us more shoppers are doing pick up in store. we don't have a lot of hard data to really know how many shoppers are doing that. >> i did this in blooming dale's. it is easier to pick it up than having to go into the store and navigate. it was pretty easy. >> courtney, thank you. i'm impressed. they made it to her in an hour and a half. >> stocks surging since the election. 52% of americans missed out on gains. is now a good time to get into the market? two financial advisers weigh in next. welcome back. we didn't get dow 20,000 today. we barely got dow 19,900. the s&p 500 dropped 4. the nasdaq was down 24 points today and the russell dropped 12 points. time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> here is what is happening this hour. dash cam video acquired by a german newspaper shows the moment the truck driven by suspected terrorist crashed into the berlin christmas market place. his finger prints have been found in that truck. 12 people were killed and 48 injured. in a tweet donald trump calling for the expansion of u.s. nuclear capabilities until, he says, the world comes to its senses. a bit later trump spokesman said the tweet referred to the need to prevent nuclear weapons from spreading to unstable countries or terrorist groups. senator bob corker says secretary of state nominee rex tillerson will not have to turn over his tax returns as part of the senate vetting process. he said prior to his confirmation hearing he will go through the same ethics and fbi checks as previous nominees. uber says its self driving test cars have left california to begin testing in arizona after california revoked registration of the cars for lack of proper permits. that's the news update. >> thank you. according to gallop roughly half of americans are invested in the stock market meaning half missed out on the rally we have had. we took to the streets of new jersey to see what some retail investors said about whether they are investing in the market. >> no. currently i'm not. i don't know much about it. >> when donald trump came into office i don't see why anybody would want to invest heavy in stock. >> just because of trump. since he got elected markets shot up and has been stable just as what they say it wouldn't be. it's just the opposite. >> my age i don't want to have too much risk. so i probably am not enjoying the rally as much as others because i am partially invested in bonds, safer, the safer smaller return. >> no. i probably need to be a little more educated about it, something i probably need to look into for sure but at this time i'm not. i don't take a lot of risks. i don't have that kind of money to play with. >> for more on if now is a good time to get into the market we are joined by jerry glassman who is member of cnbc adviser council. welcome to you both. barry, it was interesting to hear everybody's point of view summing up concerns i bet you are hearing. what do you say to people about the point of them being in the stock market? >> and i love the fact that you found diversity on the streets of new jersey. as far as different opinions and that shows in the markets. what i worry more about people who are thinking they may have missed out on an opportunity. i worry about the performance chasers. the fact that at the end of last year and bio tech had done so well and people sold their value, small caps, ml ps because they were terrible last year and plowed into things that had done well y. fear that this year during post trump rally we are finding a lot of the same retail investors chasing performance thinking that the returns that we have seen in energy and banks and other financials and such will continue. >> here is the quandary. if you are out in the market you don't want to chase it but if you realize at some point maybe i should get into it you don't have a choice because sitting near record highs so what should people do? >> that is a major concern particularly with where valuations are. we are at about 60% depending on the metric you are using. about 60% above the historicical average. so there are ways to get invested as long as you're very careful about your price. as the market continues higher it becomes harder to find great businesses with sustainable competitive advantages at margin of safety discounts to intrinsic value. >> i take your point you need that for a healthy market. most people it is a question of do i put extra money into an index fund of some sort? >> that's a risky proposition. with that index you get all of the up but also all the down. >> one way that people can consider getting market exposure but without taking full market risk there are two segments that we like. we also like it because we are never trying to time it based on valuation. the first happens to be high yield bonds. they are correlated far more with the economy and the stock market than they are with the bond market and interest rates. they are not safe bonds but they are proxy for equities. the other area that we like and we have significant exposure are long short or hedged equity funds. what those do, they give the manager the ability to invest in stocks hoping they go higher but when they are high flyers that don't deserve those valuations they can short them and profit from those, as well. what those segments can give retail investors is some market exposure but without full market risk sblmpt deit would seem to me that when we look at the statistic that says 52% of americans missed the trump rally that means 52% of americans don't have shares of anything and they haven't for a while. think back in the late '90s you have little more than a half. >> 65% or -- this will be gallop data. >> still i think the key is to think about this piece of it. if you have money to save you probably want to put some mix of stocks and bonds for long term. so i think too often we think about the market doing our saving for us by going up after we put a slug in it at one time. should be trying to save a little more along the way whatever the level of the markets. >> i wonder, a lot of people have basically one vehicle to invest in the stock market if they have one at all and it is probably some sort of 401 k. how many people are coming to you with money on the side and putting that into the market and should they be doing that? or it is more about if you don't have this investment vehicle for retirement that that should be your first step? >> it's the investments that barry were mentioning. we like to use kind of like the long short alternative investments that barry was mentioning. we will use those but we like to use, there are investments and conservative equity investment funds that are investment strategies where it is valuation driven but they won't given where the market is now, they are not going to be invested -- the whole fund won't be invested. some are 40% to 50% cash. >> any relation? >> i wish it was. >> that's your name. you're graham pierce. i'm learning. >> we have to keep in mind -- >> thank you very much. >> thank you. startup valuations have sky rocketed leading venture capitalists to become more conservative in 2016 and leaving startups looking for cash. what warning signs npt private market could mean for public companies. not just millennials deal wg student debt. the steps the government is taking to recoup loans from baby boomers. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. let's send it over to seema mody. >> cintas missing street expectations. the provider of uniforms for employees as well as first aid and cleaning products did register a slight beat on revenues in the 2017 guidance in line with estimates that shares which jim cramer has deemed ultimate trump stock as he expects it to fly higher when president-elect trump is in the white house has gained about 10% since the election. the company's earnings call set to start at 5:00 p.m. eastern. startups reached multibillion-dollar valuations and many becoming wary. many startups are raising cash by piling on debt instead of equity. could issues in the private market spill over into the public arena? joining us now is founding and editor and chief at the information. welcome. >> hi, kelly. thanks for having me. >> the debt levels of some of these private companies do seem quite high. >> i think it is high if you compare way back to the last boom but higher than recent years. we have seen rising debt loads on companies and we are also starting to see reported information that interest rates are going after companies, as well. so it's hard to say, but they are losing leverage in the lending process. >> is the reason that they are raising debt because they don't want to go public? >> that's definitely part of it. companies are still waiting. i think next year could be a big year for tech ipos. one fund manager told us eight of his companies at least have secretly filed to go public. so we are expecting people to look at the public markets more seriously next year but that hasn't been the case so people have been looking for late stage rounds as pcs aren't stepping up as much on valuation people are turning more to the debt market. it is important to mention that we are still seeing pretty healthy valuations for the high performing companies in the late stage markets. so it is a little bit of haves and have notes. of course, the debt markets is always there. seems as if it is one -- >> companies at a stage that maybe it would make since to have debt could sustain debt levels. i'm sure they don't want to dilute their existing investors and employee whose are waiting for that ipo. >> absolutely. and there are different reasons to raise debt. companies like facebook would raise debt for servers. you could argue that is a better financing vehicle for something like big data centers. you have to look at what they are raise fing for. it has been typical to have a mix of both. even companies like uber, they are looking to all sorts of investors and that always includes the debt side. >> i'm thinking about the impact this might have on publically traded companies. is it that a lot of people have been through the process saying kind of made them smarter, made them -- they had to go through kind of that process of adjustment that a lot of private companies hadn't had to experience yet. is it that public companies are safer, steadier and probably lower valued names that will ride this out? what happens if there is more turmoil when it comes to private companies? >> i think it is going to depend on what the growth is like when the companies hit the public market. if they hit them and their best growth days are behind them public investors will not be that jazzed. but i think if some of the larger companies really are only at the beginning of their potential there will still be a lot of upside for them and won't have mattered how long they waited. a lot of it is going to come down to the financials. i think they are going to face a lot of skepticism. also in the second half of this year mutual funds pulled back private tech investing by 77%. those are the public investors who aren't as smitten with the private companies right now. that is something that i think suggests there is reason to be cautious about the prospects for these companies on the ipos. >> i think we look back to 2014 and say that was the year? or is this kind of a temporary adjustment and then things pick up again? >> i think there is a lot of potential for run away companies to do well. the ubers, air bnbs, snap chat, a company that we are really expecting to try to get on the early part of next year. these are fast growing companies. they are good businesses. i don't think the best days are behind us but there has been a lot of stuff floating around the bottom that isn't going to survive. >> thanks for joining us. >> thanks. more americans are aging with unpaid student loans. how the government is dealing with that debt and its potential economic impact next. t? oh yeah...no. at cognizant, we're helping today's leading manufacturers make things that think and do, automatically. imagine that. a world of new digital products and services all working together for you. can i borrow the car when it's back? get ready. because we're helping leading companies lead with digital. we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley. student debt isn't just for millennials. according a new report the federal government has been garnishing social security checks. the government has collected over $1 billion including $171 million last year. most effected people were over the age of 50. let's bring in daniel of university ventures along with paul feign. welcome. daniel, it's one of these stories where the outcome is so wrong and yet it raises the issue of anyway that you solve it somebody is not going to get the money that they need either from taxpayers or come from social security recipients. how do you solve this problem? >> first of all, it is wrong. it is horrible that our seniors are paying back debt that they took on as students. and just a quick statistic, ten years ago, 11% of borrowers, today is 17%. that means about 3 million borrowers. frankly, this is too big of a problem that taxpayers will end up taking a hit. the only thing we can hope for is to solve this problem by changing how we pay for college from students using debt to students using what we call agreements where people pay percentage of income going forward rather than the way we have been doing it. >> in the meantime this issue is still with us. so ultimately there have been a lot of articles about loan forgiveness coming out of obama administration and the way people feel like here is a population getting help and here is another vulnerable population. why shouldn't they get help? >> it's a thorough point. i will say we are talking about 114,000 people here. obviously, serious one thing t these folks are part of a growing number of americans who are going to college later in life. more than 61% of the folks who are subject to this, who had their social security dollars garnished took out these loans in their 30s and 40s. that's part of the economy. this is a knowledge economy where people are coming back to college, or going to college for the first time later in their career. >> daniel, i wonder, how do you get to that point of making repayment income-based? it seems as if it would create some incentive to spend a lot of money on education, without thinking about -- which is totally fine, but you don't necessarily want to acquire more education than you need because the government will never collect it from you, the payment. >> those are two different issues. perdue launched a program called back boiler, which was very successful, the first u.s. major university to do this following some other countries like the uk has experimented with this, new zeal appeare zealand, australia. it transforms how we pay for higher education, students say, hey, there's something really simple, i can pay a percentage of my income for a certain period of years and flex that, if i want to do engineering, i may pay a little less or more, if i want to do a history major, want to become a doctor, each of these will more closely tie the actual economic outcome that you receive with the education. so it actually shifts the risk away from the government, away from the student, ironically shifts it to the college, where i think it belongs. >> paul, thinking again about the profile of these people, you made the point a lot of this might be education later in life, and if it bears fruit, it's possible if people aren't depending on social security for their livelihoods. explain why you think this would end up happening if these loans are going to a good -- ultimately improve their living standards. and if not, i guess it goes back to the underwriting standards in the first place. >> for most people, college debt is a good investment. for folks over 50 who have student debt, one in three are in default. it has not worked out, for one reason or another. there are some solutions. for folks who are subject to the social security offset, that can be avoided if they prove that they're permanently disabled, if they prove financial hardship, and, you know, that can be done. the problem is it's hard to do. you have to know how to do it. the federal government can do a lot to make that easier. as daniel is talking about, income-based repayment, if you're in one of those plans as a growing number of americans are and this happenings if you will happens to you, you will not have to have your social security garnished, it will not count as income, it will be okay. >> real quick, daniel. >> this is a fundamental problem. right now because of these income-based repayment programs, 60% of persons aren't actually paying down their debt. they're watching their debt go up each year. which is makes it even worse. by the time you get to be a senior, it's that much bigger of a problem. >> paul, are you saying you think it's going to get better, is that your point? >> i think if more people get into income-based repayment, those folks will not be subject to this. that said, there are a growing number of older americans taking out student debt and there will probably be growing numbers of them defaulting. >> guys, thank you, illuminating these important issues, paul fain, thank you. over to seema mody for an alert. >> calm-maine foods reporting a loss of, citing extremely challenging fundamentals in the egg industry. they go on to point out that egg prices have risen sharply since the end of its quarter in november. we are looking at shares slightly higher after hours, not on extremely high volume tall. keep in mind this is a stock that is up around 13% since the election, but down 9% year to date, kellie. >> stock prices aren't supposed to be doing that. >> the egg market is a boom/bust market. i remember when it was faddish to have the high fat, high protein diet. >> it's still kind of faddish. >> it's a cycle you can't get away from. >> it cracks. >> you can't save them and store them up. >> i'm going to stop now. key indicator suggesting this rally is turning into a stock pickers market. we'll tell you what that is when we come right back. i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. this is my retirement. retiring retired tires. and i never get tired of it. are you entirely prepared to retire? 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[ inaudible ] ♪ ♪ welcome back. the first back to back losses for the dow in six weeks. take two, mike. what are you watching beneath the surface here? >> the market is not moving as one. this is the stocks within the s&p 500, their correlation to each other. in order it's showing lots of divergence. up here is where the entire market is acting as one. down here, it's the lowest correlation of these stocks from 2007. it's a sign of a lot of variation within the markets. you have winners, you have losers, going by different -- there you go, the greek -- going by different wins. it's considered relatively healthy for stock pickers. >> i love this, because you think, oh, since the election everything has gone up together, and today everything is selling off together. in fact that's not happening at all, there's a ton of dispersion. could it be a better environment for stock picking, albeit it's one of the toughest things in the world to do? >> on paper, yes. but there's also more opportunity to fall behind, in theory, anyway. other people will say, it sometimes coincides with market tops. back in the late '90s it was back here too. you have a lot of groupins winng and others losing. we're going from a macro market to a micromarket which is all about cyclical forces. >> i just want to keep drawing on this. i meant to write "thanks." it was going to be -- >> in greek? >> i don't even know how to say it in greek. mike, thank you, as always, merry christmas. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," it was the first back to back days of losses for the dow in six weeks. with the trump rally on hold for now, what can you buy? a top strategist who correctly defied the brexit has dips. we'll give you the names of stocks surging in 2017 and how to play it. later, custom content for disney's