we're seeing right now. we're trying to parse that out. >> that's what makes the markets so interesting. let's start here as we head into the final hour with where we stand on the major stock market indexes indexes. the dow is up 168 points and remember we've had many, many more 1% swings this year than we had last year, and today by the way, we've had them in both directions. the dow is up about 170. the s&p is up 18 points right now, nearly 1% there to 2085. the nasdaq adding 36. it's actually the underperformer on the session to 4,922. we'll also and we'll get to this in a moment talk about what we're seeing across the benchmark interest year 10-year. have to talk about oil as well. >> very strong. i don't know if you can show oil right now, but last i saw it was up about 5%. it's now 6.25% gain for u.s. oil. wti. that's at $52. brent north sea crude is at $58. >> that almost feels like a short squeeze. >> let's all make sense of this. all of our guests today except rick are over at our set at the new york stock exchange. they include kathy jones from charles schwab, jeffrey cleveland from payton and regal. will is with us. dick burr ridge from rm b capital and mr. santelli in chicago. rick, let's just start with you. what do you make of today's gyrations, the dollar move. kelly is really hot on that one. oil very strong today. the yields really backing up along the long end of the curve and then the rally in the stock market here. what's going on? >> well first of all, i had ear plugs in most of the day to keep my head from exploding on comments by fed of new york gentleman, mr. dudley. i think his exact comments and i'm paraphrasing were what we're seeing in the marketplace, and this is to defend what monetary policy may look like down the road is nothing like the risk taking of '05 to '06, and the reason why my head exploded was because they didn't recognize risk taking in '05 and '06. therefore, this doesn't make me feel better and him bringing this up would be like barney frank on mortgages and the government saying well i never said i wanted to roll the dice. they were both present at times where they ultimately ended up with responsibilities, and you know what? i don't know that they could recognize the risks in either case. i continue to say we had a weak number friday and stocks are up and rates followed it and we're right back to where we were before we started. they started to condition the market to accept the inevitable. now i think there's an open-ended question mark again. >> yeah. >> jeffrey cleveland, here is my point though. if this is all about bad news being good news then why do we have interest rates moving higher today and why is even the u.s. dollar index creeping a little higher today? those things don't point towards a fed that's going to wait relative to moving early, do they? >> that's right, kelly. the question is maybe the bad news was actually good news. maybe it wasn't that bad. look at payrolls, we had 13 consecutive months of more than 200,000 jobs -- >> so it's all good news as far as you're concern approximated. >> we deserve to have one month, take a little breather. that was that 126,000. all the other payroll data beerbeerwe're looking at -- maybe we don't see the 400,000 numbers that we saw last fall but 200,000, 250,000 per month for jobs i think we're still there. the market -- >> europe is closed. let's not forget that. when we talk about what the euro did today, europe is closed for the most part and i know fx trades but it isn't the same and rates moving up and a steepening fashion augers that short rates didn't move up as fast following equities because of the dynamic regarding the fed. my opinion anyway. >> holy monday in europe so they didn't trade. kathy jones, your opinion is that the treasuries have been guessing all along that the fed is not going to raise rates anytime soon and that's still a bet right now, right? >> yeah. i think what we saw yesterday and today are -- or friday and today is that bad news leads to the expectation that you don't get the fed to hike rates anytime soon and that steepens the yield curve because it gives a longer ramp up to possibly get inflation up a bit. >> interesting. >> you know and the dollar again, with europe closed, it's hard to assess. the dollar has had a correction here but it's still been pretty firm just because everybody else is doing quantitative easing and we are not. so i think it's really about the fed all the way. >> kathy, this is fascinating. i want to make sure everybody caught what you just said. your point is if this makes the fed wait a little bit that makes interest rates move higher because it thinks the economy will be stronger and inflation will pick up in that case. that's pretty interesting and it's different than the way most people are thinking about this no 1234. >> i think what you have to watch is the yield curve shifts when news comes out. when the news is strong on the economy, what happens is expectations about fed tightening start to move and the yield curve actually flattens. and vice versa. when the news is soft we think the fed is on hold for a lot longer and that steepens the yield curve because it allows possibly for more growth before the fed -- >> i hope everybody is following along at this point. >> we're taking notes. dick, you feel friday's weak job numbers won't change the time table for the fed. you're still betting sometime in the fall maybe late in the year, yes? >> i don't think the fed will base their decision on one month's data and i agree with jeff, really the underlying strength is still there. i don't want that you're going to see job growth as slow as we saw this past month. i don't think that will be a typical report that we see out of releases in future months. the consumer is in great shape and improving. net worths are at all-time highs. you've got a tight job market consumer represents 70% of the economy. i think that's going to force the economy to continue to grow. each quarter this year like last year, we'll see an improvement. >> will, as we embark on a new quarter, where do you think the most opportunity is for investors? >> right now you have to watch the fed. they removed patience from the fomc statement so they could be data dependent. that data is trending lower. you have to follow the trend. lower for longer is what's in play right now and that's where equities are going to go higher if you look at the s&p outpacing the russell. that's, again, it's another usd bearish trade since large caps are more prone to overseas business, and i think that's what you should be looking at for q2 especially if the data continues to trend in a weaker environment. >> will, are you in the camp then that says this dollar -- this big move upward is going to take a pause for pretty much the second quarter here? we may even see some more weakness? >> it really depends on the data as these guys mentioned. with the economics coming out. obviously today the dollar is muted because oil is ripping which is taking some pressure off of the dollar. europe is closed and i think really watch the trends and position and react appropriately. >> kathy let's go back to what you were talking about with kelly here. so what does this mean then for your forecast for treasury yields down the road by the end of the year here. will they be higher or lower and does it just depend on what the fed does? >> when you're talking about treasury yields at the longer end of the yield curve, 5 to 10 year, that's really going to depend on the economic data more than the fed. the fed really influences short-term rates. we think there's room for yields to move a bit higher this year but we're not looking for a big move up. we're definitely in the slower and lower camp even if the fed raises rates. in fact, indeed if the fed raises rates, that keeps long-term yields lower. >> you have called it secular stagnation and you think we're still in this here, right? >> i don't know if i buy the whole secular stagnation argument, but what we have is a slow growth economy, and we're still -- even though consumer are in better shape, they're not choosing to spend the extra money they have. they're choosing to continue to deleverage, to pay down their credit card bills, to reduce some of their mortgage exposure and in that kind of a world with an aging population on top of it, i'm not sure we're going to go back to the consumer spending rate that we typically would see coming out of a cycle like this. >> dick a question to you just drawing on your history and experience here there are more and more indications of companies getting out of the money fund business. some of the regulatory changes, maybe because of the rate environment. what does that say to you and at the same time if we have companies like jpmorgan not wanting to take the cash where is all this cash going to go? >> well i think that's part of the reason the stock market is likely to continue to rise. there just aren't great alternatives to equities right now. so i think the money will go to smaller banks. the consolidation in the banking industry, that's one of the themes we believe is going to continue to play out this year. part of that is because the larger banks have to get out of these businesses. they can't even take deposits in many cases. smaller and mid sized banks are the big winners and the consolidation continues. >> jeff the last word here. the other component the fed is watching carefully besides jobs of course, is inflation. now, what's your target for the end of the year here? do we see is oil going to matter? is it going to rise from here do you think? will the dollar strength bring that inflation expectation down? what are you thinking by the end of this year here? >> so i think we may have been at an inflection point. everybody is so captivated by the disinflation story driven by falling oil prices. if oil prices stabilize here and the inflation data starts to pick up as we get into q2 and q3 i think many investors, most especially bond investors, will suddenly change their tune. if won't be the slow and low forever. they will start entertaining the fact we're not in secular stagnation, the u.s. economy is fine inflation will pick up a little bit and i think bill and kelly, by the end of the year interest rates will be actually a little bit higher. we don't think dramatically higher -- >> going out on a limb there. >> 10-year yield -- yes, kelly, you know me. 2.5% maybe we could edge back up in that direction. but secular stagnation is dead in my determination. i think people will start to slowly realize. that was the story of the last few years and it's been cast aside. >> all right. very good folks. good discussion. thank you all. appreciate it. >> nice to see you. >> 50 minutes to go to the close. a strong day for the markets as we try to figure out what's going on behind the 142-point rally for the dow. the s&p adding 16. the nasdaq up 31. coming up walter isaacson weighing in on apple, and if he thinks ceo tim cook will hit a home run with the apple watch due out later this month. and wait until you hear what walter sees in store for apple dividends and stock buybacks. that's still to come. >> that's a hot one on the street. also mutual funds may be regaining their mojo this year but are cheaper exchange traded funds better for your portfolio? the pros will hash that out. "closing bell" is back in two. plus what kelly thought of "furious 7" over the weekend. >> it was great. i'm telling you. 40% of streetlights in detroit at one point did not work. at the time that the bankruptcy filing was done the public lighting authority had a hard time of finding a bank. citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. they had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. it's a brighter day in detroit. kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. 40% of the lights were out but they're not out for long. they're coming back. if you're running a business legalzoom has your back. over the last 10 years we've helped one million business owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here. have you missed a day if you're just tuning in here. down over 100 points on the open because of the disappointing jobs report friday then some comments from new york fed president bill dudley that was very dovish. that brought the market back again. up 153, just off the highs. the sapp up 17. all ten sectors are positive. that was not the case on the open. >> look at energy taking that leadership position up 2% on the back of strong oil. >> oil up 6% right now. >> also turning in a strong performance, fast and furious 7, racing ahead of the pack in the box office debut this weekend pocketing $384 million so far in global ticket sales. >> we'll get kelly's review in a moment. first julia boorstin joins us with a look at what this could mean for universal pictures which is a comcast company. what a long introduction julia. what did you think? >> bill, this film's success is a huge win for universal. "fast and furious 7 qwest" is on track to gross as much as $1 billion, this on the back of the biggest opening ever for a film not based on a comic book or a young adult novel. universal and its financing partners will more than makeroughly $200 million to make the movie. they're working on an eighth movie. it also supports a strong launch for universal's "fast and furious" attraction that opens at universal studios hollywood in june. this big weekend bodes well for a massive summer season on the back of mega franchises like marvel's "avengers" sequel and "jurassic world" that should help the u.s. box office rebound from last year's 5% decline. one thing all the studios are talking about today is that for "fast 7" is diverse cast drew a big diverse audience. 37% of its u.s. audience was hispanic and 24% african-american. this should encourage the studios to showcase more diversity. kelly? >> julia, thank you very much. it does appear there may be good days ahead for the movie box office which could translate for good days for movie stocks generally. >> let's talk about it. covering both of those bases for us now, paul garabedian and tuna amobe from s&p capital. paul what did you think? >> wow, this is what i live for. i have been doing box office and grabbinging this for 22 years and when i saw these numbers coming in, we had a friday that was $67.3 million. that's almost double the previous record for a single day in april. the $143.6 million in north america for the weekend is the ninth biggest opening of all time, the biggest opening of the year this year so far, and the biggest april opening ever. we've never seen a movie earn over $100 million in april. the worldwide figurefigures, $284 million for the world -- for the international. that's $384 million worldwide that we tracked on this movie. so "furious 7" is already closing in on $400 million after its first weekend and could be the first in the entire franchise to hit $1 billion worldwide. these are staggering numbers. >> tuna that's why people are now looking at box office names. is this just about the success of this particular franchise or are there other names from disney, time warner comcast, fox, or lionsgate implicated in this year being a strong box office one? >> i have to say, first of all, what universal and "fast and furious" have done with that franchise is nothing short of phenomenal, but more importantly to your question, i think it kind of illustrates the power of content. last year obviously we saw the box office decline. there was a lot of questions raised about whether this was kind of a secular decline. clearly, i think we've seen the pace this year rebound in "fast and furious." the major reason for that. so looking ahead i think part of the reason we like the studios is the resurgence in the film division and content. for universal specifically what we've seen is can i haveonsistent with the turnaround that started in 2013. >> this is the seventh picture in the franchise obviously. unheard of to go that long anyway, but now to have this kind of box office. can you figure out why it did this? is part of it the tragic death of paul walker or is something else going on? >> i think there's a lot of curiosity factor in audiences trying to see the film and actually saw it for that reason which is ironic. but the film is clever in the way it was marketed with social media which cross all the platforms. i believe that the franchise has shown a very strong endurance given where it's come from. it's a very very long franchise. so looking ahead, i do believe that as julia alluded to we could see the first billion dollar worldwide box office. >> does this implicate more about the success of this particular franchise or do you think there are other studios who will benefit if there's been a movie content refresh that will continue in 2015? >> i think we're looking at what will be a record-breaking year in 2015 coming off of 2014 that was down a bit, about 5%. we could achieve the first $5 billion summer and the first $11 million year in north america and the first $40 million year worldwide. and that's a big deal coming off a year like last year. it shows that you content is king, and with this run up with "furious 7," it will have about a month before the next "avengers" movie opens, and remember the first installment in the "avengers" franchise opened with $207.4 million in north america alone. biggest opening weekend of all time and hit after hit coming in may, june july and august so i'm predicting a record-breaking summer a record-breaking year and "furious 7" is just the beginning of what i think is going to be a massive, you know, amount of people going to the movie theater for that great escapist experience and that popcorn movie fun. >> big summer for degarabedian, i can tell that. i'm the only person at the new york stock exchange who hasn't seen this movie. you liked it, yes? >> i saw it and i liked it. i have to say as an analyst my expectations are relatively tempered compared to what was talked about. i think the real action will come in 2016 where we see a wall-to-wall blockbuster lineup. for 2015 we're relatively cautious. >> paul, you were a fan of the movie? >> oh, yeah. i love these films. i love cars and cars going really fast. >> bill has to see it. get your los angeles guy. you have to go back and start with the first one. >> i have never seen a "fast and furious" movie. >> there's no time like the present. >> but you loved this one. >> i did and i never see any movies. >> i know. >> you have to go see it, bill. >> i will paul. thank you. >> paul degarabedian tuna amobi. 40 minutes to the close and a strong day not just for the box office. equities doing well. the dow is up 143. a lot of questions about the dollar as well. we'll keep an eye on that. it looks like it's regaining some mojo late in the session. not doing much though to tame the increase we're seeing in oil prices at the same time. oil having a strong day as well. >> speaking of mojo tesla surging on the back of record sales. the pros debate if shares of elon musk's electric car company are primed for even bigger gains when we come back. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪ welcome back. 35 minutes to go here in a strong session across the board. the dow back above 17,900. the nasdaq still trying to claw back to 5,000, actually the underperformer on the session but a big pop in crude oil has energy the top sector up more than 2%. >> yeah. of the s&p 500. let's look at all 500 components right now. most of them are green, and, again, we had quite a turnaround. most of them would have been red on the open this morning, but now we're heading higher. meantime exchange traded funds continuing to see multibillion dollar inflows. jeff cox joining us with the numbers on that. jeff? >> yeah bill. i'll say, about $100 billion so far this year going into etfs. the interesting thing is that the money is not going into some of the usual suspects. the big winners so far this year have been funds that bet on currency hedging, basically, you know, whether currencies go up or down. now, wisdom tree has a fund for instance, the europe hedged equity fund. it's gained about -- over $10 billion so far this year in assets. it's up over 20%. and it basically looks at companies who will gain on a declining euro. very interesting there. one other big story that will come out of all this of course is the old debate about active versus passive, which is better for investors. now, in the past couple years that's been a slam dunk because active managers have performed so poorly. that's changing a little bit this year. according to bank of america/merrill lynch, 44% of active managers have outperformed their indexes this year, so it's still not quite 50%, but it's better by multiples what we've seen in the last couple years, so be very interesting to see how that debitde debate plays out. >> etfs and some of these particular strategies may be hot but barron's touting the return of some mutual funds. when was the last time we saw the magellan fund on the cover? >> joining us is mark martiak. mark welcome back. >> thank you for having me bill. hello, kelly, good afternoon. >> we all know as jeff pointed out, actively managed has lagged in this up market. do you think that's about to change? >> i do. in a transitional market like this in an uncertain interest rate environment, i believe it makes sense to actively construct a portfolio where research-driven manager takes advantage of good stock picking and i think it's important in certain asset classes like municipal bonds, any fixed income, emerging markets -- >> mark -- >> there are a asset classes where it pays off. >> it comes down to mutual funds versus etfs. if i'm looking to put my money into a long-term value jor gented strategy, should i go with a mutual fund now that they have clawed their way back to better performance or go with the lowest option broad market etf? >> go with a long term buy and hold actively managed mutual fund. we take a multiasset strategy approach. so it's not to say that it's -- mutual funds versus etfs. when i consult with my clients, i include both funds. they're just different vehicles for delivering what you want as an investor. >> you just don't think it's that cut and dried. you talk about funds, talking about tax advantages talking about liquidity. i think investors are just feeling more comfortable with index strategies. when you look at a mutual fund and you have to be able to pick a manager, a successful manager, and then you've got to hope that that manager's returns can continue into the future with this long-term strategy. so it's just -- it's a risky bet in a market where volatility has been so low. >> let's face it performance is one thing, but fees are another issue here and mark, let's face it the actively managed funds are more expensive to invest in than the etfs, right? >> bill you make a good point but it also depends on what institution -- what share class you're buying. many investors do believe that they're paying sales loads when in fact if you check closely, it all depends on whether it's an a share class, a "c" share class or an institutional share class in a fee-based account. clearly with etfs, fees tend to be lower, but you're intentioningintentiondexingindexing, it's a passive way to achieve the results you want. there are commission charges when you're buying or selling etfs that most investors take for granted but you should look really closely at your statements and consult with your advisers when this occurs about the etf extra commission charges. >> yeah. jeff, a quick last word here. you know as you mentioned, the most popular etf strategies seem to be those more innovative one that is allow people to make bets, for example, on the euro or on europe minus the euro on a given quarter. but what about people investing or putting their money to work in just kind of the plain vanilla instruments. are you seeing inflows there too? >> yeah you have seen inflows but the other thing you have seen, interesting trend, is that the money towards equity funds, towards plain vanilla equity funds, have been going towards non-u.s. funds as well. there's definitely a story brewing there where the u.s. is not going to be looked upon as the best house in a bad neighborhood, the only place you can put your money kind of thing. the other thing is i wanted to point out actively managed etfs are up and coming. that will be another area to watch. they had a big gain in assets last year. i think it was -- up 17% in assets last year. so the active manager is trying to get into that space as well. >> let's not forget kelly and bill $15.5 trillion net assets with mutual funds, $1.8 trillion with etfs. so yes indeed, etfs have gained -- >> over $2 trillion now for etfs. >> but look carefully at the mutual fund choices. >> thank you both. >> watch your wallet. >> thanks guys. time now for a cnbc news update this hour with tyler mathisen. ty? >> here is what's happening at this hour. several thousand anti-islam protesters marched in the center of dresden today. they waved german flags and held banners calling on german politicians to deport abusers of that country's political asylum system. twitter has removed photographs of an instan bull prosecutors held by militants. talks with youtube which was also banned are still under way. santa barbara has its answer to the california drought. tapping the pacific ocean. it has prepared now to spend $40 million to reactivate a desalination plant out there. go to cnbc.com for more. a spring storm is expected to bring several inches of rain to some drought parched areas of the state mostly in the north. and the cherry blossoms are on the verge of blooming in my hometown the nation's capital. 3,800 cherry trees expected to hit their peak next week. that is about a week later than normal. they never folks, show up when they're supposed to. that's the cnbc news update for this hour. back to you all. >> speaking of which, as you know, i have california relatives in town. they should be arriving in d.c. right about now as a matter of fact. so they're a week early. >> are they catching the baseball as well? >> no. they were hoping to see cherry clos soms blossoms. 150 points, that's how much higher we are on the dow right now. >> tesla meanwhile is also higher. zooming after the electric car company clocked its best sales quarter ever. but does tesla risk running out of juice? pros have a good old stock brawl on tesla coming up after this. stay tuned. so why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction quarter ever. so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision or any symptoms of an allergic reaction stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. why pause the moment? ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. for a free 30-tablet trial go to cialis.com new york state is reinventing how we do business by leading the way on tax cuts. we cut the rates on personal income taxes. we enacted the lowest corporate tax rate since 1968. we eliminated the income tax on manufacturers altogether. with startup-ny, qualified businesses that start, expand or relocate to new york state pay no taxes for 10 years. all to grow our economy and create jobs. see how new york can give your business the opportunity to grow at ny.gov/business our world is continuously transformed by the innovation of business, but at pwc we believe that businesses can go beyond products or services to have a measurable impact. as a professional services firm, we recognize the role pwc can play in helping build the financial capabilities of the next generation. our commitment to doing so, has helped our people make a difference, not only for our clients, but for our communities. that's the responsibility of business, and one way pwc is making a better tomorrow. welcome back. we mentioned energy is the top sector today but there are interesting moves. mary thompson is keeping an eye on the movers. >> on this rather volatile session let's start with some banks, the worst performing stocks in the s&p 500 today, hudson city bank. the planned merger has run into another delay. the federal reserve says it's unable to complete its review of the merger before the deal termination date of april 30th. shares of 3-d systems having a positive day up over 4%. 3-d printing company is buying easy way, a china based provider. terms of the deal haven't been disclosed but the stock is up 3.75%. that's a nice move to the upside. the stock for the year down almost 50%. software company informatica has received two offers. the company is negotiating a sale that could value it at $5 billion to $6 billion. a deal that would be this year's largest leveraged buyout. stock up 3.25%. tesla up over 6% today. the electric carmaker says it's delivered more than 10,000 vehicles during the first quarter. that's tesla's highest quarterly total ever and a 55% increase over the year ago period. the increase in its stock, 7%. back to you, kelly. >> pretty big move. mary thank you. tesla did just hit that new sales record but not everyone is bullish on the stock. >> we have a bull and a bear here. carl brower is senior analyst at kelly blue book. and eamon shaw. the stock has fallen sharply but it's up 6% today. you like this stock don't you? >> i love this stock. when i was driving down here, we were saying what is the big debate? it's electric cars. everyone should be happy out there. while i was driving past the new tesla dealership in charlotte, everybody should be beeping their horns to those bears because what tesla is doing by breaking down dealership barriers all over the u.s. to all the emerging markets they're coming to on the foreign side i'm extremely bullish about what they're doing today and that battery announcement that's coming out later this month. >> okay. but, carl s this a good investment, especially if tesla falls sort of the 55,000 delivery target this year? >> well, that's just one of its challenges. even if it gets the kind of production and sales numbers it's looking for this year it's looking at a lot of competition in this segment in the next two years. we know that general motors will be coming out with $30,000 to $35,000 electric car that will get 200-plus mile range on a battery. and that's going to compete directly with their next -- with tesla's next big deal the model three. they won't be fighting -- gm won't be fighting the dealership woes that tesla still has to deal with on so many levels in so many different states. >> karl let me step in there. have you been to the retail stores? you could go to some of their retail stores and walk right in where all the mall traffic is. this is disrupting the way the car dealerships are doing business. i think it's a brilliant marketing trick that they're doing, and you could walk into a resale store just like you can at apple and i think they're more of a technology company that's into auto that's revolutionizing everything. what do you think about that, karl? >> i think that's true but i also think at the end of the day they have to make money, which they have never done. they have been around for over ten years and never made a profit. they have to go up against big players that are experts in this field, the traditional automakers who are going to start jumping into the electric market soon. they're going to have the background and experience and the retailing system that's rapidly being embraced -- >> but, karl -- >> versus fighting with all the retail efforts. >> they've been betting against elon musk for years. elon musk is today's steve jobs. elon musk people know is reinventing how and revolutionizing the world we live in. one day we'll be talking about elon musk as the next steve jobs. >> well, i'm sure that's what elon thinks and apparently you think that, too. i'm still not sure tesla is going to work as a business model. >> it's already working. they're dominating their market. >> karl, what about -- hang on amish. >> they're dominating the $75,000-plus electric car market. that's a hard market to dominate. they're the only one in it. >> anybody who steers clear of this investment or all the reasons you outline if somebody whether it's gm whether it's apple or somebody else if they come and they will take tesla out at a premium, that would be a risk i guess if you're trying to bet against them no? >> yeah that's a huge risk. they will eventually have to go up against the traditional automakers who are better suited for volume electric car sales than they are. >> all right. we got to go but karl i have been dying to ask you, what is bluebook on a used tesla? do they hold their value? >> they actually do hold their value because so far right now there's enough demand versus supply. i always wonder what's going to happen when all the $75,000 plus electric car customers have been saturated. >> buy the stock instead. save your money. buy the stock instead. >> all right. thank you, guys. that was fun. appreciate it very much. >> karl broureer and amish shah. focusing in on oil, the breakout we're seeing in terms of the oil price and energy as a leadership sector. >> it's been a very interesting day in that regard. still it come on "closing bell," best selling author walter isaacson talks apple, the launch of the hotly anticipated watch. still to come this month. plus dividends and stock buybacks that could be heading your way. and up next oh-oh, even small businesses have begun feeling the effects of the strong dollar. our kate rogers has a damage report you've got to hear. we're back in two. still to come this month. it took tennis legend serena williams, fencing champion tim morehouse and the rockettes years to master their craft. but only moments to master paying bills at chase.com. depositing checks at the atm and transferring funds on the mobile app. technology designed for you. so you can easily master the way you bank. doug. you've been staring at that for awhile, huh? 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[ male announcer ] legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses. if you have a business idea, we have a personalized legal solution that's right for you. with easy step-by-step guidance, we're here to help you turn your dream into a reality. start your business today with legalzoom. welcome back. no secret the strong dollar has been eating in profits at big businesses across the country. now some smaller ones are starting to feel the pain as well. >> kate rogers joins us with a special report on that. kate? >> hi, kelly and bill. unlike their larger competitors, smaller businesses don't have the luxury of shifting production between both and offshore facilities to manufacture goods or cutting their prices. in the past six months the dollar is up close to 16% versus the euro and near 10% versus the yen. for washington state based manufacturer lisa chises who exports plastic products overseas via her company, it means pricing pressure. >> it's not getting any less expensive to manufacture in the united states. so if we can't offer them deeper discounts, then they will take more of their business to offshore competitors so we will lose revenue. i'm concerned about the strength of american manufacturing and i think we need to do whatever we can do to make sure that we are encouraging that to move forward. >> and she's not the only one concerned. new york fed president bill dudley saying in a speech this morning that the dollar's run will likely lead to weak trade. despite that threat some like chissus say they're committed to staying in america. it's just unclear how much that may cost them in the long run if the dollar continues to dominate. kelly and bill? >> all right. thank you very much kate. 13 minutes to go here into the close, bill. >> yes, kelly. we are heading to the close. how will they close on this first frading day of the week? we'll take you there. come on along. be right back. trading day of the week? we'll take you there. come on along. be right back. financial noise financial noise financial noise ♪ ♪ the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born. after all, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned... every day... from the smallest detail to the boldest leap. healthier means using wellness to keep away illness... knowing a prescription is way more than the pills... and believing that a single life can be made better by millions of others. healthier takes somebody who can power modern health care... by connecting every single part of it. realizing cold hard data can inspire warmth and compassion... and that when technology meets expertise... everything is possible. for as long as the world keeps on searching for healthier... we're here to make healthier happen. optum. healthier is here. our world is continuously transformed by the innovation of business, but at pwc we believe that businesses can go beyond products or services to have a measurable impact. as a professional services firm, we recognize the role pwc can play in helping build the financial capabilities of the next generation. our commitment to doing so, has helped our people make a difference, not only for our clients, but for our communities. that's the responsibility of business, and one way pwc is making a better tomorrow. losing a little altitude as we head to the close but the dow is still up 130 points even after that big sell-off on the open this morning. we've had what we affectionately call around here a double-triple around here down triple digits on the open, up triple digits in the afternoon. >> john faust is joining us here at post 9. >> welcome aboard. >> thank you. >> you like europe and the emerging markets. you think the u.s. is fully valued here right? >> long-term perspective, yes, i think the u.s. market is in a position likely where the path of least resistance is to continue moving up but we see better value outside the united states. >> everybody says that these days. everybody says they prefer europe prefer japan. is this trade getting too crowded? >> sometimes the consensus is right. in the short run i think there's a ways for the u.s. trade to run but ultimately value prevails and we see better value outside the u.s. >> where would you look in the u.s. if you had to pick something? this was interesting you think we're heading into an age of conglomerates. conglomerates are coming back to various industries right now. >> yeah we're seeing a lot of m&a activity. i think that's one of the things that's been driving the market other the last couple years now. i expect that that will continue. i wouldn't -- there's no particular areas i see are, you know, great opportunity. the areas i see as perhaps providing concern is social media area biotech areas. i have a bit of a value bias myself and there are some pockets of the market that look pretty extended here. >> what about as we approach april 15th this income volatility, and taxes theme i see here. >> we're big believes long-term investment advisers are fundamentally concerned with meeting the objectives of their clients around three issues income, providing the income they need to live on volatility managing the volatility of their portfolio, and dealing with the tax results of investments. so often the focus is on only the return aspect of investing, but the income the volatility and the taxes our studies have showed are equal if not more important to most investors. >> to europe then great first quarter, far outperforming the u.s. market. i mean it's already had a great run here. >> i think it's happening. >> but you still think there's value. >> i think there's better value. >> do you pick by sectors, by country. what do you do there? >> again, we're long-term investors. >> right. >> i'm not -- my job, i'm the ceo of the company, and i'm not involved in picking stocks or sectors -- >> but you're sitting here with us telling us how to invest people's money here so we're pinning you down. that's our job. >> that's not my job. we've got a whole range of experts across markets and that's their job. my job is to sign the paychecks and keep the company pointed in the right direction. >> real quickly, we're having this debate about mutual funds versus etfs. is it a veerrsus argument as you see it or is there a need for all the instruments? >> we're the sponsors of next shares that brings the advantages of a -- it transforms the delivery of active manage am in . we're at the very early stages of what we think could be a very transformative mo of in our industry towards not only exchange traded versions coming to dominate on the passive side but exchange traded product in the form of next shares dominating on the active side as well. >> tom faust, good to see you. >> thank you. >> let you go back to your job. sign those paychecks. we'll come back with the closing countdown for this monday? just a moment. >> and then after the bell best selling author walter isaacson plus huffington post co-founder ariana huffington will join me on the panel. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. if you're running a business legalzoom has your back. over the last 10 years we've helped one million business owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here. okay, listen up! i'm re-workin' the menu. mayo? corn dogs? you are so outta here! aah! 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[ bottle ] ensure®. nutrition in charge™. about three minutes left. what's an interesting day. especially the open this morning. we thought we were going to get a down day because of that bad jobs report on friday. this is the dow today. we did have a sell-off on the open this morning. down over 100 points until bid dudley of the new york fed spoke sounding very dovish and then things turned around. we were up 130 points at the high -- or thereabouts. we're just off that high right now with a gain of 126 on the industrial average. oil very strong today. wti crude up to $52. now $51. was up 6.25% at one time but now up 5.75% in the electronic trade session, and brent north sea is up to $58 per barrel right now. so big, strong day for energy. as for the 10-year-year-old yield, it was lower earlier, slowdown expected from the jobs report but then it took off in the afternoon here, and the yield up to 1.9% on that 10-year note bob pisani. >> i love these kind of days because everybody gets what they want. the guys who are saying bad news is good news again and the fed will put out their rate hikes until september and beyond and dudley was dovish on that they turn out to be right. the guys who say the ism services number was the real number reflecting the strength the other weak numbers in february are the outlier numbers and the economy is getting better, turns out they think they're right, too. so the bad news is good news guys think they're right. the good news is good news guys think they're right. everybody goes home happy and gets what they want. people like you and me are here to try to figure out that's contradictory impulses. >> who is right? >> exactly, that's part of the problem. it seems to indicate the short end of the curve seems to believe that the fed is not going to be raising rates aggressively at all this year. and that seems to be what a lot of people think. the problem is everybody says this, i say do you realize two weeks from now that curve could change like that? i'm not that impressed with that idea. >> i don't know. i still think that speech by stanley fischer, i think that was very telling. they're itching to start the process of normalization. he made that very clear. >> and i'm in that camp too. >> i know they say they're data dependent. they have in the back of their minds that one rate increase -- >> a quarter point might be the beginning. >> whether it begins to june september, remains to be seen. >> i've been hounding away on the earnings recession. we're now negative for the first and second quarter. revenues are negative and even the third quarter the revenue growth is negative. we have to get some kind of top line growth, and now it's not only modestly positive it's slipping into negative territory. that suggesting choppy sizedeways trading. >> up 120 points loosing some of that at the close. what will tomorrow bring? we'll talk about that coming up. a great panel coming up including best-selling author walter isaacson and the great arianna huffington g tonington herself on the second hour of "the closing bell." i'll see you tomorrow, kel. thank you, billing. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans. let's kick off this week with how we're finishing up the session on wall street. we started looking like it was going to be an ugly day. look how we're going out, with the dow up about 119 points and that's off the highs of the session. good for two-thirds of 1%. the s&p 500 is adding 14. the nasdaq under performing ever so slightly but still up 40 points to 4,917. big moves in crude. we have to talk about the dollar and interest rates. we just the people to do that. let's bring in today's panel. evan newmark joins me along with kate kelly, jon fortt, and walter isaacson from the aspen institute. welcome, welcome, one and all, and also with us is johnn najarian najarian. so let me just start evan with you. we had these remarks from bill dudley this morning. the first guy out of the fed to come and say, well you know, maybe i'm not going to be so explicit about us raising rates. is that what this rally is all about? >> it's the old hollywood adage, nobody knows anything. even bill dudley. >> is that an old hollywood adage? >> i think it is. if it's not, it's an old wall street adage. bill dudley basically came out and said you know what? i kind of know as much as you do. temporary factors, who knows really what's going on. we need another month or two of data to really figure out what's going on. he sounds like somebody on your panel talking, kelly. he's the head of the new york fed. he's supposed to know what's going on. i think what's most interesting right now is basically stocks today, interest rates, and oil moved against what -- and the dollar moved against consensus. consensus was dollar is going to parity against the euro. guess what -- >> it's a new quarter, new trade. >> oil was up 6%. come on what is that? >> all this tells me, evan is we're still in a period of a lot of volatility which is what the second quarter has been predicted to be especially in the oil markets, but also when you think about stocks because corporate earnings people are a little bearish, not expecting to see a terrific set of announcements this quarter. i think we're going to see a lot of moufsves up and down. i talked to traders about what worked for them in the first quarter. one answer i got was fading. essentially short term contrarian trading on volatility. when you have this choppy market that stays in a range, you can employ a tactic like that. so i don't hear a lot of big, operative theses at work in terms of the long/short folks i know. >> so nobody knows. >> exactly. that's what i'm saying. i think there's consensus that we'll see a move on rates this year, but is it june is it september, is it even later? what if the job data continues to be a little weak? >> jon fortt, what do you make of it all? >> it looks to me like welling maybe it's not as bad as it looks. sandisk which had been beaten down, vm ware down about 20% over the past 12 months those are the two top movers among the stocks i cover up more than 3.5% more than 4%. then you have go pro also had a strong move up nearly 4%. that stock has been beaten down way down from its highs. blackberry also had a strong day. >> it's a contrarian day. whether it's tech names or macro things you are talking about. white is black, black is white. >> you have a lot of bad news but also you have a lot of expectations for more bad news with the earnings a lot of the expectations have come down. so i think a lot of people are thinking maybe it's not that bad. we see some good news and maybe that will start to bear out. >> dr. j, are we just distracted because it's opening day for baseball season a big basketball game. >> no i think it is that people were afraid that we were going to get another temper tantrum with rates going up perhaps in june or earlier based on some of not so much the language out of the fed because they have been pretty clear about what they intend to do and how they're going to be data driven. this data has been decidedly bad. there's been a bunch of bad data in a row. i don't think we're going to see a move before september if even then out of this fed, and, again, the pressure from around the world on interest rates means that the fed does have some leeway to make the move on longer-term rates especially depending where they pick to attack, but i don't think it's going to have a real monetary move in the united states on rates. >> and walter isaacson, we welcome you into the convo here joining us remotely. if there was ever a day -- steve jobs' name was just invoked an hour ago on our debate on tesla. that stock was up 7% and people going back and forth on whether it is or is not going to be a game-changer here. is it fair to make those comparisons between elon musk and steve jobs? >> yeah i think both of them were extremely innovative people, willing to take risks, willing to think different to use the phrase steve used. we don't have that enough in our innovative economy today. everybody is a little bit too cautious and careful. so when you look at true visionaries like that, those are the people you should be watching, and you're meme of the panel which is nobody knows anything, that's right, especially on a day when the stock market opens down more than 100, closes up more than 100, and not much happened between the opening and closing bell, but i do think there are a few things we kind of do know. one of which is there's not a huge need to raise interest rates now. the data doesn't show it. we're not worried about inflation. secondly, i do think we're not into heavy revenues and earnings growth. so that's a bad sign. everything is kind of mixed and weak. we have to look to people like elon musk and the people at apple to bring us new, innovative products and maybe change the game for us. >> right. we're reminded look the original ipod launched in 2001 after the recession. i mean there's a business cycle and a macro cycle and a product cycle, evan. >> it's a nice spring day, kelly, and that counts a lot more than you would think. i was talking down wall street it's a beautiful day outside -- >> i mentioned it this morning. >> i think it does matter. but i actually want to touch on something that walter was talking about, which is you have to take a view as to whether or not you see america as an exceptional economy and an exceptional society, and actually i just finished walter's book on ben franklin and ben franklin used to go back to the old john winthrop saying about the shining city on the hill, and for those of us who believe in american exceptionalism, especially on a nice spring day, you have to believe that the u.s. economy will continue to grow -- >> are you saying larry summers is not a patriot? >> i would say it's an interesting contrast to larry summers' recent comments. i kind of said you know what the u.s. it's kind of over for the u.s. i'm exaggerating but he basically said secular stagnation. for those of us out there especially on a very nice day like today who believe in american exceptionalism and who believe in the, you know -- >> what's going on with the bond yields? that's what i'm saying? >> you always have to bring it back to the bond yields. >> you could get your face ripped off if you're on the wrong side of the interest rate trade. >> i like the philosophical frame everybody and walter are talking about because you hear a lot of relativism in the markets. the u.s. is rallying because europe looks relatively bad. don't even think about japan. is this country unique is it innovative is it a thought and economic leader? i'm afraid the optimism has dissipated. >> as you all know if you spend time overseas one of the main things you will hear from a lot of investors there is that sure, we can mess around with quantitative easing, et cetera, but what we really need is to unleash the spirit if you will the animal spirits -- >> we need more elon musk and steve jobs. >> but you're naming all americans here and i think that's the bull case in this markets. if you want to go to tech and if you want to be optimistic you say cloud still has a lot of legs. turning computing from something you have to own that's hardware based into something that's a utility, the u.s. through amazon, through microsoft, through others is leading in that. mobile also. apple continues to have legs with the iphone where a lot of people thought that was over. look at china, mobile shipments are actually down. they were supposed to be commoditizing everything and taking over. that's not happening. if you look back a cycle ago when tech seemed to be about services, you have this rise of india happening. now it's not so much about services. it's about innovations like social media, cloud, and mobile. it's u.s. companies that are leading in innovation. you can expect that to continue. >> dr. j, what are your top picks here? >> well there was some pretty interesting activity in broadcom. it's a stock i have pounded the table for several times kelly, as far as a memory play here and as far as wi-fi and so forth. i like this stock. i think it is under owned by many in the tech community, and i think like jon said i believe about sandisk, that stock, sandisk made a nice move today, $2.35 or more to the upside. broadcom similar, very strong up move and there's some rumors swirling about it. we'll see whether or not those end up playing out in the week to come but a lot of this was very short-term trading, kelly. they're not betting long term. they're betting right now. >> we'll see new a few minutes, dr. j. walter, the last word here. i wanted you to answer what evan just raised. ultimately, do you believe that america has something special, differentiating about it that makes this country a compelling investment despite all the other portfolio managers telling us they're betting on japan and europe this day? >> i agree with evan. there is an exceptionalism in america and you especially feel it on a sunny opening baseball day like today, but what it is is that we define markets. we create new things. take amazon. amazon totally created a whole new market. now, alibaba is going to come in and be a really strong player. so what we need in the united states is that ability to say, okay, what's next? whether it's cloud, whether it's life sciences whether it's pharma, whether it's big data connected to medicine. we always have to be on the cusp of what's next. >> we'll leave it there. everybody stays. thanks very much dr. j. we'll see you again in a couple minutes. bad economic news is good news on wall street today. stocks rallying despite friday's disappointing jobs report but was that labor report an outlier or was it a sign of tough times to come in the labor market. and apple fans are anxiously awaiting the companies upcoming watch but there's something apple investors are watching much more closely for this month and it's a potentially huge dividend hike. we'll talk about how big on "closing bell." you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. welcome back. the economy didn't hit a stop sign friday with that march jobs report. it certainly saw a yellow caution light. the unemployment rate was flat but the labor force shrank. hourly earnings were up but the average workweek were down and employment fell in some key industries. this has sparked some concern about the future of hiring. joining me is tom gimbel. did we take a step back in march for good reasons? maybe there was a shortage of workers. or do you think that the labor market is still much weaker than we realize? >> i don't think it's any more weaker or stronger than it was at this time in march or february. i think the revisions for january and february and march say something and what it says to the american public and the folks in washington, d.c., is this is what the economy is. stop -- you can want it to be all you want but the fact of the matter is we are at a bumpy bottom of it. we're at a low unemployment rate. we're seeing flat participation rate. and we're not seeing huge wage growth. i think it was 7 cents an hour. so this is just a reality check for us to think we're not going to be hitting 300,000, 350,000 jobs anytime soon and i think a lot of it is also a precursor to the minimum wage and i think to that being increased to what walmart and mcdonald's announced last week and i think you're seeing a lot of small to medium-sized employers that have that hourly based population. they're a little hesitant to be adding bodies. >> anecdotally, tom, talk about your industry. are you guys seeing wage growth? are you hiring? >> yeah, we're hiring. in chicago and the midwest we're seeing a lot. our national searches we're seeing hiring but not seeing crazy salaries that are higher than what i have seen in the past. what i'm saying internally for sales positions, we're seeing those to be competitive but a lot of production induced incentives to allow people to make money. so i just think it's the same as it's been for the past six to nine months and we don't have anything -- i heard what walter isaacson was saying and i think he's right in the fact of what's going to be next? we don't have it yet, and i think to think everyone is going to prepare in advance before we see what's next whether it's the cloud or biogen nettics is prae mature. >> i think about the number of loans that aren't happening in this environment that would have under the 2001 lending environment and think about all the other things that aren't happening because those people aren't getting mortgages, aren't moving into new homes. is that part of what we're seeing here? you know it looks like employment in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade was flat versus the month before. we saw in this jobs report. if people were buying houses would they be employing more construction workers to do extra things to those houses et cetera? >> i think we can wish all we want but the fact of the matter is if more people were buying houses, we'd be staring a bubble in the face. i don't think we're at the point of a bubble. i think we're seeing people are being smarter with the money they are making. we're seeing savings. we're seeing the economy recover. i mean exports were up. the dow is up today based on the news. i don't know why anybody was expecting 350,000 jobs. i know that i want the estimate. it was in the high 200s. but this is -- to me this seems very normal and it's something we shouldn't be upset or worried about. we should be looking at saying let's get the participation rate up a little bit. if we can do that and close the skills gap we're going to be moving things the right way. to think that everybody is going to go out after what happened in '07 and '08 and go and buy a house or buy a car or -- i just think we're a smarter public, a smarter main street than we were then. >> i think tom makes a number of good points, but when i step back, i go if you look at the two things that used to drive our thinking about consumer behavior they were retail sales and they were housing, right? and it could just be that after basically the crash of 2008 that we just have a different paradigm now for how consumers spend their money. >> we're not talking about consumer spending. we're talking about the jobs report. >> but the jobs is basically linked to how consumers are using their money. we're seeing higher savings rate and people go that's a bad thing. it's actually kind of a good thing but it will be how the savings are channeled into productive enterprises. >> it's like you're saying there's a new normal. >> yeah it is but i don't like using those phrases. >> what about the question of wage inflation? isn't that going to be a bigger factor and are we looking at the wrong issue when we think about the number of jobs added or not added. tom, what are your thoughts on wage inflation and when we will see a meaningful increase? >> last word. >> i think wage inflation will take a while. i think what the companies want to see, at least the ones we work with and we work with thousands in the midwest and around the country, and what they want to see is where unemployment settles in. what usually tends to happen both on whether companies are bringing in 1099 contractors or w-2'd employees or temporaries or hiring direct hire or permanent staff is they want to make sure now they don't have to do layoffs en masse. aside from the oil industry we just haven't had that a lot over the past three, four or five years. companies want to make sure they're hiring people at the right pace. so i think we're going to see wages increase after we see this mid -- low to mid 5.5% unemployment stay this way for 6 to 9 months. it dropped down from 6.5% to the low 5s. once that's there for a period of time, then companies will realize they have to pay more to get employed people from their competitors to join their firm. >> thanks tom. tom gimbel joining us from la salle. we have some breaking news on viacom. julia, what's happening? >> kelly, viacom announcing a restructuring. the media giant announcing it will take a pretax charge of about $785 million in the quarter ended march 3 1st and the company expects to have annual cost savings of about $350 million. viacom also announcing it will temporarily pause share purchases under its 20 billion stock reprach program saying it anticipates resuming those repurchases no later than october of this year when it begins its next fiscal year. viacom said it's reorganizing three domestic groups into two no organizations but the company does not detail how many layoffs we should expect and which areas we will see the layoffs which we can only expect are coming. back over to you. >> we'll stay tuned for further info on that. april is shaping up to be a critical month for apple. the company gearing up to release its first smart watch, of course, and it could be ready also to return a big chunk of cash to investors. we'll get you those details in a moment. and speaking of cash somebody here says investors should get ready for a flood of merger activity before a fed rate hike makes m&a more expensive. details on that when we continue. 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why are we so committed to keeping you connected? why combine performance with a conscience? why innovate for a future without accidents? why do any of it? why do all of it? because if it matters to you it's everything to us. the xc60 crossover. from volvo. lease the well equiped volvo xc60 today. visit your local volvo showroom for details. welcome back. apple's new smart watch will be able for preorder in a few days but there's another potential announcement investors are watching closely. >> kelly apple is going to make a lot of news this month, which bulls hope will power the stock even higher. stock is already up some 15% this year, making it one of the top performers in the dow adding about 100 points to that index's gains. starting this week there's going to be a lot of attention on the apple watch where preorders start on friday. there's definitely a lot of buzz about that product with apple over the weekend releasing new videos about the watch but financial analysts don't think it will have a big impact at least initially on the bottom line. instead, investors are going to focus on q2 earnings due on april 27th and the company's plans for capital return. last year remember apple returned $56 billion to shareholders and that was more than any other company ever according so s&p capital iq. on april 27th pipers jean anyne muenster thinks apple will announce a new $150 billion capital return program and that would be a big jump from the $130 billion program now in place. muenster thinks anything less than $150 billion, however, would be seen as a disappointment by investors. kelly, back to you. >> wow. that's a high bar. thank you very much, josh. market watchers are keeping a close eye on apple's move in april. let's bring in j.j. kinahan and johnn najarian and our panel. how important are the share plans. >> in terms of institutions holding apple as compare to other stocks like microsoft, cisco, they only hold about 57% whereas they hold over 70% of microsoft and cisco. so for the true retail investor that helps them a lot. the other thing about it is we have a survey that shows where our retail investors are investing. they bought a lot of apple last month. in fact, they bought it every single week of last month. it was our number one stock held last year number one stock traded last year. all that being said i think one of the reasons people are doing it is an expectation of some return. you know to put a dividend yield in line with microsoft, microsoft is at 3%. cisco is over 3%. >> microsoft's best growth days are probably behind it. i'm wondering, dr. j, how much you think apple at current prices given all the inflows we just heard about is factoring in a dividend or capital return of at least $150 billion in size? >> well i would say that josh lipton has great insight here and he's talking to gene munster, one of the best analysts on the stock, but the number is $130 billion. so i wouldn't say the street is betting on $150 billion but they are seeing all that money both domestically and overseas kelly. they know apple just raised a bunch more cash overseas in euro terms and at much lower rates than they can get in the united states so they continue to manage their money very effectively. to jrge's.j.'s point, people are willing to bet on them because of the app store and because of itunes even though music stores are declineingdeclining. >> i just want to bring walter isaacson in here. what do you think about when you hear to the extent investors are gearing up for massive capital return plans and last year apple delivered on them and this year the number could be even bigger? >> i think it's somewhat new for apple. i remember apple meetings shareholders meetings when people were demanding capital return. and i know steve jobs never felt that was the best use he could do of the money. this is now tim cook's company and it's something that was a big deal last year. the biggest capital return ever. i think that, you know, it's just another sign of the success of apple is that it's got so much cash. >> so you don't look at this and think they are, you know, that it will be regretted at some point, that this is just apple getting with the times so to speak? >> yeah. i mean i'm not an expert on when you should do capital return. i have always been a little bit more skeptical of doing capital return in any company because i like it when a company says i know what to do with that capital. i have got all sorts of plans. i'm going to do things with it but that's not me speculating about apple. i worry that we're in a quarter, in a whole period in which a lot of companies can't quite figure out what to do with their capital and they're doing a lot of stock buybacks or capital returns and to me that shows a slight lack of innovation or optimism. >> quick last word j.j. and john. j.j., you first. >> i think that one of the reasons apple may not have all the plans is that their cash flow is so great nobody has ever had cash flows like this before, it's so immense they have good plans going forward but there's still excess cash left over. it's a quality problem to have. >> dr. j? >> i'll be surprised, kelly, if one of the things they do is not a big deal this year because they have obviously not done that big multibillion dollar deal. i look for such a deal beyond a beats deal this year. >> jon fortt, do you want to comment on that? are those rumors making the rounds fast and furious? >> not that i have heard, but tim cook has sounded more open to doing something big than steve jobs did in the past. i think the question is what. they've had a lot of trouble figuring out what to do with their cash besides return it even if they're trying to get some manufacturing process going. it's really hard to stand that up as we saw with sapphire glass. >> thanks. j.j. kinahan and jon najarian with us. time for a cnbc news update with tyler mathisen. >> thank you very much. here is what's happening at this hour. the machinist union says it has temporarily withdrawn its application to organize flight attendants at delta air lines. this after it discovered a number of authorization cards contained insufficient information or questionable signatures. new york city workers were sent to remove a large bronze bust of nsa whistle-blower edward snowden after tfsit was placed atop a statue in brooklyn. three artists installed the sculpture before dawn fusing the figure to a stone monument with adhesive. chemical plant explosion in eastern china sent residents scurrying. the toxic flammable chemle can that cle that caused the blost is used to make plastic bottles. and massive flooding in the bolivian city of santa cruz. some motorists forced to abandon their cars while the emergency unit was called in to help those whose homes were flooded. that's the cnbc news update for this hour. back to you all. >> all right. thanks a lot, tyler. deal making will get a lot more expensive when the fed finally hikes interest rates. my next guest says that's why we are about to see a boom in m&a activity. plus republican senator rand paul getting ready to jump into that 2016 presidential race. does he risk alienating his libertarian supporters by cozying up to the gop base? arianna huffington weighs in later on "the closing bell." it took tennis legend serena williams, fencing champion tim morehouse and the rockettes years to master their craft. but only moments to master paying bills at chase.com. depositing checks at the atm and transferring funds on the mobile app. technology designed for you. so you can easily master the way you bank. hudson city's merger deal in the spotlight today. the federal reserve notifying them it wouldn't make a decision on the merger application before the end of the deal. investors should be ready for a tsunami of deals coming out of the pipeline. we're joined by bob to explain. >> nice to be here. >> are you saying by historical measures we're talking about an epic amount of dealmaking? >> the first quarter was better than last year's first quarter but it was a little bit lower than most of us thought because there's so much -- profession services firms are just being overwhelmed right now. there's so many things in the pipeline. i could easily see this topping 2007 $4 trillion market. >> unbelievable. >> well you have relatively inexpensive financing at least for the time being and you have a lot of motivation in certain sectors like pharma and energy albeit for different reasons, no? >> yes. actually when you think -- i have been asked this before what are the number one industries to look at it's harder to figure out which ones won't consolidate and it's a tucks function of everything. a function of globalization, technology, everything else but the akccelerant -- people like me have been saying for the lost couple years, tepid growth low interest rates, should be a lot of m and a. and it was okay but not great. the accelerant has been the focus onout ly utilization of capital. you can call it activism if you want but i think that way understates the size of the problem. somebodies deleverage. you can only buy back your stock so much. you got to start investing in your business. >> we were talking about that for the last two blocks right, with apple and a whole slew of other companies, what to do with all that cash on the balance sheet. >> let me ask a question bob, when are we going to get back to the good old day of just bad deals? the one thing i would say is that most of the m&a activity over the last several years has been strategic in nature. you haven't had lbo firms going out and overleveraging txu and buying up companies they have no business owning frankly. so you haven't had really many bad deals. you have had people overpay but that's natural. when are we going to get some real frothy bad deals which will signal that things are back because the truth is as long as you're having this kind of low -- >> why do you want things to be back? >> the thing right now is you can always tell you have a roaring bull market on your hands when you see real stupidity. >> i can think of two or three in the energy market can't you? >> well, in the energy space, retail, there's a variety of spaces where i think there will be -- i'm not sure you call them bad deals. maybe a lot of shot gun weddings where we both have a problem, let's solve it by synergy really. one of the important things about this market that's unusual is buyers stock prices are rewarded for good strategic deals as long as you don't use too much of your stock in it. now, that goes back to the debt point because debt is just unbelievably attractive right now and that's going to tighten up, no question about it. even if the short rate is brought in what's it going to do to long rates? >> we have rumors out there, intel may be doing a deal for altera, but overall there isn't this taking advantage as much as you'd expect of low interest rates to do these kinds of deals. people not getting mortgages at the rate you'd expect. what is behind that? what's the attitude the psychology? >> i was trying to say before the accelerant is not financial. you said before it's not '06-'07 revisit revisited. that's absolutely true. it's things like siemens. nobody paid attention to the fact the same day they announced they were selling their european household appliances business in a big deal. most successful european appliances deal in europe and they were reallocating their capital. novartis one day last october announced four over billion dollar deals, two sales, two buys on the same day. it's a function of smart utilization of capital. that's what the activists go after when you're not doing it but it's really strategic, and will there be some bad deals? of course there will. >> i wanted to ask walter about that. are you seeing activity that's strategic or is it not for lack of a better word out there? >> i'm the child of one of the frothiest, worst deals in history. i went to work at "time" magazine, became time warner aol time warner and that whole merger merger, i think that burned a whole generation of people from thinking let's just put together company that is do all sorts of things and we're going to find synergies as opposed to have divisions that fight each other and can't do thing, for example, like make an ipod. what we're seeing now is i think you're right to talk about tepid earnings and revenue growth that people may be saying we can have some savings here. but these aren't sort of -- i hate to say it we aren't going back to the grand old frothy huge deals that i think made no sense. >> well, and we'll take that for now as an encouraging sign bob. also look and see what happens as people get back to work. >> it's good for his business if things get stupid. that's good for his business. >> of course. >> that has a short-term aspect to it. >> thank you for being here. >> you're welcome. >> appreciate it. it's been nearly ten years since the huffington post helped digitalize media. arianna huffington joins us. and how are baseball ticket prices and team revenues soaring even as the league battles an aging, shrinking tv audience. a closer look at the financial state of our national pastime coming up. good. very good. you see something moving off the shelves and your first thought is to investigate the company. you are type e*. yes, investment opportunities can be anywhere... or not. but you know the difference. e*trade's bar code scanner. shorten the distance between intuition and action. e*trade opportunity is everywhere. welcome back. senator ted cruz is about to get some company in the 2016 republican presidential race. it comes at a time where a schism seems to be building between social conservatives and big business. eamon javers is in washington with the details. >> hi kelly. that's right. we're expecting senator rand paul is going to announce for president tomorrow. we're also told by politico his slogan is going to be defeat the washington machine. a very populist slogan for a populist moment here in american politics. as you say, his entry into the race is going to come at a time when we've seen an interesting break now between the long time alliance that's powered the republican party the alliance of social conservatives, and big business conservatives. want to give you just three quotes that illustrate the debate that they're having right now inside that wing of the party in the wake of the gay rights debate in indiana over the past couple weeks. starting with senator ted cruz who said this in "the new york times" times". the fortune 500 is running shamelessly to endorse the ratcle gay marriage agenda over religious liberty. moving on to tony perkins, the head of the family research council. he said you want to roll back religion freedom? good-bye walmart, hello neighborhood grocery. and then matt lewis, a conservative columnist wrote big businesses like apple and walmart helped sink laws meant to defend religious liberty. all of these conservatives, kelly, upset that big business seemed to side in this recent debate on the side of gay rights and gay marriage. that is something that matt lewis is arguing in his column is enough to decouple that political alliance which has been so important to republicans over the years between social conservatives and business. the question is whether this is just a fraying of that alliance or whether this portends something different for 2016. all of these candidates who get into the race are going to have to pick sides in this fight and we're going to see how this plays out for republicans over the next year or so kelly. >> huge story, eamon. thank you so much. eamon javers for us in washington. i want to get reaction now from a prominent woman in the news media. arianna huffington is president and editor in chief of the "huffington post" media group. she's the author of "thrive" and joins me at post 9 at the new york stock exchange. welcome. >> thank you. >> what do you make of this gap between social conservatives and big business. what impact could it have on the presidential race? >> well, it's a very significant gap, and it was all shown very clearly during this controversy with indiana law, and you had companies ranging from sales force in san francisco to walmart and many in between taking a stand. so i think that is going to make a big difference. the other major issue i think we're going to say played out when rand paul announces is the question of where do they stand on the iran negotiation agreement because obviously rand paul is coming more from the noninterventionist side of the party, which his father ron paul epitomized but now conservatives and moderate republicans even have become increasingly hawkish. so that's going to be another very interesting battle line to be drawn. >> i'm just trying to envision a scenario in which there's a strong message from the left about embracing big business in this country. do you think we're going to see that? >> you know what? i don't actually see it as a left/right issue. i think this is more a question of human rights as we saw in indiana, and it's a question of what is in the public interest when it comes, say, to iran. so i think this is going to be a very different election. i don't think we will be able to divide it easily into right/left. >> speaking of big business you are about to celebrate ten years. >> on may 9th we will be ten years old. when aol bought "the huffington post" four years ago, we were at 30 million unique visitors a month. we're now at 214 million unique visits a month. we are only in the united states. we are now in 13 soon to be 15 countries, including the arab world. and 50% of our traffic comes from outside the u.s. >> it's an impressive feat. you in many ways embodied the last ten years of what it meant to be online and one of these news aggregateor and news generating kinds of websites. i'm wondering what the next ten years will look like. in a way we've moved away from some of the platform to newer mobile based ones or other ways of consuming news. how do you stay relevant? is it more of a social media phenomenon? talk to us about what the next five or ten -- >> i think the key is to keep evolving and keep inknow vating. you know, we launched a huge video platform over two years ago. we launched a dedicated current affairs show on friday night, and we are redesigning the site with the priority on mobile and social. so it's really exciting to be able to keep innovating while we have the advantage of being a major destination brand. i think it's really the combination of these two advantages that make the next ten years so promising. >> is it still those unique visitors that you mentioned that get the most attention and emphasis at your organization or are there other ways of evaluating your relevance, if you will or success these days? >> well unique visitors come from many ways. they don't all come through the front door through the front page. a lot of them come through social. we're the number one social publisher on facebook. and increasingly a lot of them come through mobile. our chief technology officer was in charge of mobile. we made him our cto to indicate to everybody in the newsroom our big priority on mobile. >> give us one prediction before you go about the way the media landscape will shift over the next couple years. >> i think the prediction is what we are doubling down on which is media needs to focus on what is working, not just on what is dysfunctional. so we have doubled down on that. plus, all our additions, we are focusing on stories of what is happening that is good that is solutions based. obviously we're going to be covering what is corrupt, dysfunctional, et cetera but i think those of us in the media have not done a good enough job on putting a spotlight on solutions. we say if it blids iteeds it leads. we need to change that and we need to create copycat solutions, not just copycat crimes. >> her book "thrive" is in paper book now. appreciate it. the great baseball pioneer bill vek said there's only two seasons, winter and baseball. players have never made more money and tickets have never cost more. up next we'll look at the state of the national pastime. we're back in two. thing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. so why pause to take a pill? 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>> people will say look at the tv ratings, we're looking at numbers at 14 million, down from number of 40 million if you go back 35 years ago. here's the thing, all of tv ratings is going down you can't say baseball is the one that's getting older. they point to local television ratings, which are the highest rated programs day in and day out the entire summer. we're looking at a tv contract twice the previous one. franchise evaluations are up 50% from last year and salaries are at record highs, revenues for the teams at record highs. you're looking at record high numbers going into this year. the dodgers broke the yankee a 15-year stronghold on payroll per team. >> despite the decline in viewership, you can say major league baseball is thriving. >> except if you read "the washington post" story today, a great front page story that mark fisher did in the post you see among younger kids there is a weakness. i agree it's a very local sport, there's a lot of great numbers franchises are higher than ever but if you look at you know i think it was just mentioned that it was on 14 million watching the world series last year of those only 4% were in the age between 16 and 17 years old. i will agree with you they're doing well with mlb at bath but -- >> it's all about mlb. >> it is about mlb. you're seeing the tale of two stories here. we began saying it was a good day and a bad day. for baseball there are these young challenges keeping people playing the game. >> i'm going to go to my 15-year-old son. absolute fanatical nfl follower huge new england patriots fan. could not care less about the yankees or the mets. >>s that one case in point. >> i would not say it's one case in point. i'd say it's highly representative. >> when you go to digital, you know people are not watching three-hour games. they are watching ten-minute increments -- >> i'm going to say my son is very representative -- >> is there a baseball bubble though? if you want to go see a game if you want to go do something, it's getting tougher and tougher for your average family to even be able to afford a day at the ballpark if it's major leagues. it's if minor leagues are sure. >> isn't that true of all the major competitive sports? it's very, very expensive to see a basketball game, a hockey game. >> when i was a kid there was baseball basketball, fool and that's it -- football and that's it. now you've got soccer and things competing on your iphone. should all these things be going up? >> it's encouraging that despite the numbers they're still profitable on opening day. thank, eric. more "closing bell" still ahead. a year after colorado became the first state to legalize marijuana, millions of tax dollars are coming in but a snafu may force them to have some back. that's next in two. then expanded. or their new product tanked. or not. what if they embrace new technology instead? imagine a company's future with the future of trading. company profile, a research tool on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. say you're a finance guy. a farmer. a researcher. you used to depend on experience. the internet. your gut. today you can use ibm watson analytics. it can make sense of all kinds of data. uncover hidden correlations and new opportunities. and give recommendations with more confidence on who will buy. what to make. where to plant. which helps you make smarter decisions. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm. time for a final thought with the panel as we move out of our first trading day of the week. john, what are you watching? >> i'm watching the attitude toward these beaten down stocks. we saw them pop today. will they continue to have life or will it wither as in the past? >> kate? >> with crude oil likely to hit a high this order, curious where the bottom sits in. is it in the 20s? >> walter isakson? >> i'm looking between ben bernanke and larry summers, the most edifying one about whether we're in a period of secular stagnation. that's the big question. >> i totally agree. evan evan's going to weigh in. >> i'm going to look forward to the day when we don't talk about ben bernanke or -- or the iwatch. >> that does it for us. "fast money" is coming up in just a few seconds. melissa lee, i'll send it right over to you. it's time for "fast money right now." >> i'm melissa lee. here's what's on the fast track tonight. tesla stock soaring on the back record sales in the first quarter. is this a rally to sell? we'll debate that. >> elaine wynn sending an open letter to shareholders. we've got the details. and fast and furious here on the desk. we'll tell you which stocks we're furious at. it looked like it could be an ugly day after friday's weak job reports but this morning's