we're talking about real revenue revenue. >> we have a controversial story on cnbc.com today. the headline reads is the 401(k) experiment a failure? first we didn't know it was an experiment but we will get to that a little bit later. the writer of that piece on cnbc.com says that the facts add up to an "f" for 401(k) retirement plans. we've heard from many of you on twitter as you respond to that article, but the author kelly holland, will be with us to back up that story and we'll be talking about it a little bit later. >> yeah. ted cruz he jumps the line. he's now the first to officially declare he is running for president. so where will he get his money? is anyone on wall street behind him? we'll find out later on in the show. >> let's get you caught up on the markets today. kind of a quiet session even with comments by fed vice chair stanley fischer which we'll talk about in a moment. the dow is up 54 points. we're getting closer to an all-time high for the dow, too, as a matter of fact. s&p is up three points and you saw the nasdaq down a quarter as michelle mentioned, still about 20 22 points away from the all-time closing high. joining us today, erin gibbs from s&p capital iq who is here with us at the new york stock exchange. so is kenny polcari from o'neill securities securities. mark eye bell is with us and so is kevin giddis and rick santelli joins us as well. rick stanley fischer saying it is well expected that the fed will start raising rates later this year. he made that statement at the new york economic club just a little while ago and the markets did nothing with it. why do you think that is? >> i think there's two answers to that question. first, i'm not so sure anything he communicated really made the actual date of normalization any clearer. now, granted all dates seem to be in 2015 but i think the most important thing to stanley fischer's talk today was the notion of trying to frame what the fed's doing, their ultimate normalization, as just removing some accommodation but leaving plenty of helpings of accommodation over. i think the market's viewpoint is once you start to normalize, that ultimately whether you do it slow, whether you do it in a trendy fashion like alan greenspan or not, that it's the beginning of something that the market is going to have to take into consideration on a very low part of the food chain, the cost of capital. and i think the market is nervous about that. the more i read stan fischer's speech, it really was though the investors he was somewhat speaking to he was speaking to them almost as if they were kind of too young and too child-like to understand exactly what's coming, and i think that's very interesting when you think about it. >> erin, what do you think of that? especially to rick's point, if it's coming then theoretically that means that the dollar could keep moving higher as well which is having a tremendous impact on the markets week after week here. >> fact he stressed late in 2015, that's so far out, and i don't think people are really expecting any appreciation in the near term -- sorry any depreciation of the dollar in the near term and we're looking for further appreciation. >> that's despite the little pull back we saw right after the fed. >> this is just very much a small pull back because of the fed. i still see the long-term trend of the dollar going up for quite some time. >> kenny, what's going to move the markets this week? we got fed last week earnings next week. what's going to move the markets this week? >> i'm not sure there's much this week that's really going to move the markets unless any one of the data points that come out so misses the mark. i think people are much more concerned about what the impact of the stronger dollar which we started to see at the end of last year what it's going to mean to the first quarter and until they really understand the impact, how much that dollar is going to either impact or not, i think it's going to hold the market in check. therefore, i think it's going to trade very tightly. i don't think it's going to burst higher or do i think it's going to collapse at all. >> mark what is the next catalyst then for stocks and what are you doing in anticipation of it? is it earnings for example, that start next week? >> yeah i think all eyes start looking at earnings. again, i don't think fischer's comments said anything the market hadn't thought about last week probably september. so what's the next data point? obviously monthly jobs and wage information is key but i think it's all about earnings particularly with an eye on we know the dollar has strengthened. that's going to impact earnings and we know the energy sector will get hit. so how much might earnings be down relative to expectations? i think that's where all eyes are. in between it's probably news out of europe or it seems to be a pretty light week this week. i think it's all eyes forward to earnings next week. >> kevin, we know that the 10-year is still below 2% after last week's fed meeting. do you expect it to go even lower from here or could we see it creep up as the anticipation of a rate increase gets closer? >> bill it's kind of funny because the fed is kind of stuck in their own self-imposed data dependent world, so as long as the numbers come in weaker it gets them further and further away from their goals. knowing they want to come off zero rate policy but right now a lot of money is coming in from especially foreign accounts into the bond market. there's a lack of inflation out there. there's a positive spread to sovereign credit. i expect that to continue about you we're not talking about 185, 180 or 75 until we get something on employment the following week. so between now and then we will stay pretty range bound when 1.90% and 2.10% on the high. >> there's been a lot of focus on issues of liquidity ever since the fed statement. we saw erratic trading in the currency market that day but it's highlighted a question as to whether or not particularly in the bond market there's enough liquidity to get trades done. do you see any signs of that? >> not at this point. i think a good -- the proper measurement for limited would la quick i had had -- volatility has been going up and down quite a bit will you liquidity is good. >> even corporates? >> the types of accounts buying treasuries right now and the longer they buy them and hold them, liquidity could be a factor that would affect the repo market sometimes in the next six to nine months. >> that would be potentially a big event if we finally saw that happen. >> potentially. >> yeah. >> erin gibbs -- >> not going to say it's going to happen but it's a possibility. >> we talked about earnings expectations, they have plunged for first quarter in part because of that strong dollar. where do they stand right now. what are you expecting when those reports start coming out next week? >> basically zero growth. for 2015 we're looking at 0.3% growth. >> for all of 20135? >> for all of 2015 basically flat. revenues are looking at a negative 1.5%. so an actual decline in revenues. you can see on the revenue side where that dollar is impacting them. so your consumer staples, consumer discretionary, industrials. those are the sectors more vulnerable to the dollar moves particularly when you look at the percentage of their sales that come from outside the u.s. so those would be the ones that i'd be most concerned about potential misses on the earnings side because of that strong dollar. >> mark eibel, that weak euro which goes along with the strong dollar is one of the reasons so many people are bullish on european equities. are those the reasons? >> we've been bullish on europe even coming into this year. i think -- we know they've had cheaper stock than the u.s. for a while, but what was the catalyst? qe is a catalyst. it weakens the currency. on top of it you have low expectations and the gift of cheap energy which helps europe. >> what -- >> so far we're going into a diversified portfolio. >> what if your clients want to get exposure to europe but they're dollar buyers they could lose on the currency even as the stock goes up. do you help them hedge? >> go with the hedged etfs? >> we've seen that. for our portfolios in which hedging is built into the policy, you see exactly that. you're long europe and you hedge the currency away. so far it's played right into that. it's been a great year to have a diversified portfolio in international developed. we like this market. the u.s. is up the rest of the world is up a little bit more. that's helped investors who have been patient. >> kenny p. i have to go back to what erin said a moment ago on earnings expectations. they are just terrible at this point. if that's the case why are we sitting near all time highs? >> that's a conundrum and i think the only reason you could say we're there is because of all the free money, zero interest rates, the fact that every central bank is behind it. that being said, at some point there's got to be a repricing of the risk because i do think even though i like u.s. and i think in the end of this year it will do well i think there's some room here some of the fluff has to come out of it. so you may see the market and you should see -- and you should want to see the market back off a little bit, but i wouldn't be concerned about any big correction. it's not going to happen as long as the fed and everyone else is sitting there supporting it. >> all right. good to see you all. thank you for your thoughts today on today's market action. appreciate it very much. we have 50 minutes left in the trading session. the dow is up 55 points right now. the s&p is up 3, but the nasdaq kind of spoiling the party a bit down a point and a half. last week we were wondering if we'd get to the new all-time high. it's not looking good right now. >> this week we're wondering it too. >> yes, we are. >> next make or break time on nuclear talks with iran. the latest developments on if and when we could actually see a deal. and emerging markets investor bill browder is here. he's a wanted man in russia. he weighs in on the role president putin is playing in the nuclear negotiations with iran. he says putin's influence is absolutely there. >> also ahead -- >> i don't think it's going to hurt business. we certainly have not seen that in the last 24 hours. >> what a difference a few days makes. that was starbuck's chairman howard schultz. baristas now are no longer writing race together after a storm of controversy erupted over the company's plan to discuss racial issues with their customers. should we give starbucks for some credit for having the good sense to scrap a bad idea? that's the way we're going to look at this. backhanded compliment to starbucks. still to come on "closing bell." stay tuned. never before has this kind of passion this kind of innovation, engineering, design and performance... been available... for this kind of price. the 2015 cla from mercedes-benz. see yoalerfers through mercedes-benz financial services. in new yinventing how we do businent the world. from pharmaceuticals to 3d prototyping, biotech to clean energy. whether your business is moving, expanding or just getting started... only new york offers you zero taxes for 10 years with startup ny business incubators that partner companies with universities, and venture capital funding for high growth industries. see how new york can grow your business and create jobs. visit ny.gov/business it's crunch time for global powers and iran to reach a deal over iran's controversial nuclear program. >> the deadline is looming. it's a week from tomorrow. now eamon javers joins us from washington to tell us where we stand right now. eamon? >> that's right, bill. they're expecting to resume those talks in switzerland on wednesday. it's the so-called p5+1 nation negotiating process. so far the whole world is watching to see whether the u.s. and iran can come to some kind of a deal for iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions in exchange for the united states to lift some of its economic sanctions or all of its economic sanctions. no word yet on what is in the deal. secretary of state john kerry briefed reporters on friday on exactly where things stand. take a listen. >> so in the days ahead, we will stay at this. we will continue to exercise the judgment and the patience to defend our interests, to uphold our core principles and maintain our sense of urgency. we have not yet reached the finish line, but make no mistake, we have the opportunity to try to get this right. >> and guys obviously a lot of controversy and concern over the direction these talks are going, and republicans in particular here on capitol hill have been extremely critical of the obama administration for going down this negotiating path with iran. we don't know exactly what's on order, but, of course some of the key areas are going to be how the united states can exactly verify exactly where iran is in its nuclear process and how it could maintain that verification over some long period of time and then also on the iranian side they're going to want to know exactly which u.s. economic sanctions are going to be lifted for how long, and what businesses it will apply to. so a lot here and the whole world is watching. >> eamon, thanks very much. meanwhile, our next guest is calling russia a potential spoiler in the nuclear talks. >> he's bill browder who is a firm critic of president putin. he's the author of "red notice." good to see you again, bill. >> welcome back bill. >> so the united states seems to think that russia is crucial in the involvement in order to get a deal done with iran. they want russia's help in terms of getting rid of some of the nuclear stockpile iran has. do you sue see russia's involvement? >> let's see what happens if this deal goes through. then you end up in a situation where iran can sell its oil freely on the international markets and with oil prices going down and staying down and vladimir putin being basically an oil producer who is suffering, he doesn't have any interest in this deal going through from a financial standpoint, and he also likes to be the international spoiler on anything going on. he likes to be poking everybody between the eyes on these types of things. and so i mean i'm not an expert on the interaction between the united states and iran but what i am an expert on is how russia goes about sort of messing up every international negotiation and it's in putin's economic interest and in his interest of being important to mess this thing up if he can. >> that would be super interesting because it would be contradictory to the view that the u.s. has had of russia's potential role bill. it would be just the opposite. they've said they've got to get them involved in order to bring iran to the table. >> well, they've been saying that for years. they say that we need russia for iran but russia has no interest in doing anything other than spoiling. they sit at the u.n. security council and always put their -- they try to mess these things up and so the u.s. may want russia but russia -- but to actually get russia to cooperate, particularly with all the other stuff going on i think is a long shot. >> let's be specific about it then. how would you imagine vladimir putin would try to be a spoiler in this case? does he just simply turn down any deal that the u.s. reaches with iran or does he try to undercut it in some other way, some other fashion? what do you think he might try and do? >> well you know the way he intervenes in these situations is he'll come around the back door with some type of offer to iran to say, listen if you go along with this deal we're not going to do this with you, and what he's negotiating with iran i don't know but, you know, he knows how to complicate these situations and i think there's a very good chance he'll try to complicate this one. >> so let's just watch for that in other words and see what he does come up with. what do you make of the killing of the opposition leader boris net nemtsov being gunned down and what's putin's involvement from your view? >> russia is going into an economic crisis right now. two years ago boris nemtsov wasn't a political threat to putin but now that russia is going into an economic crisis, boris nemtsov was calling for people torg into the streets and protest and call for putin's downfall and he became a political threat to putin. so in my mind putin is the one who is behind this whole thing. i don't believe that anybody would have assassinated boris nemtsov right in front of the kremlin. i don't think anybody would have had the guts to do that other than somebody who is instructed or authorized to do that from the start. and so i see vlad peerimir putin's fingerprints all over this murder. >> do you have any theories about where vladimir putin was when we disappeared a couple weeks ago? >> a lot of people have a lot of theories. his skin looks like awfully nice without wrinkles so maybe that tells you something. >> you're suggesting plastic surgery? >> take longer than that. botox. >> i don't know but he's disappeared before and it looks like he's had some plastic surgery. he's a very vain little man, and so that's one theory. i can't prove it certainly not. >> what do we make of the russian response once he came back? did it make him even more powerful? the population seemed relieved to see that he was back in charge. >> well i mean we have a situation in russia which is different than any other country where it's a completely person-based leadership. it's not an institution-based leadership. there's no institutions no, courts. everybody is terrified what happens if vladimir putin disappears, is there a revolution, civil war? do the rich guys get arrested? everybody is sort of sitting there wondering what happens next, and so when he came back you know, they were happy that there wasn't some kind of crisis or chaos that followed. and it really does tell us in the west that he's accumulated so much power in his own hands that, you know, what happens if he disappears? we don't know. maybe good maybe bad. a lot of us were kind of hoping he'd be gone forever. >> always food for thought from bill browder from hermitage capital. good to see you. thank you for joining us this evening. >> all right. we have about 39 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial average is in positive territory by 42 points and the s&p is higher by nearly 2 points. the nasdaq though just kind of dawdling along slightly negative. >> when we come back another story we've been buzzing about today. good intentions but maybe just a bad idea. starbucks abruptly ending its race together campaign where baristas were supposed to talk race issues while you waited for your coffee. we look at what went into the decision to launch the campaign and why it was so quickly ended as well. when we come back. i have a wandering eye. i mean, come on. national gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. i could choose you... or i could choose her if i like her more. and i do. oh, the silent treatment. real mature. so you wanna get out of here? 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[birds chirping] the am. new aleve pm. it's the first to combine a safe sleep aid plus the 12 hour strength of aleve. for pain relief that can last all the way until morning. new aleve pm, for a better am. with the dow up about 47 points, meg terrell joins us tracking some of the movers this monday. >> shares of herbalife are soaring for a second straight day up 7% now following on friday's 10% gain and last week a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit brought by herbalife shareholders alleged the company is a pyramid scheme. starbucks is announcing its baristas will no longer be asked to write race together on cups given to customers. the ceo says the coffee chain will continue other aspects of its campaign aimed at sparking discussions on race. >> we're going to talk about that a little bit more right now, meg. race in america, a difficult but important issue, and one that starbucks ceo howard schultz wanted to tackle head on in a campaign that would have had his coffee baristas discussing racial issues openly with customers. he explained his thinking last week on cnbc to our jim cramer during "mad money." >> all we're trying to do is potentially do something catalytic to start a conversation. we don't want to be intrusive on any level. we're simply trying to raise the awareness, the level of empathy and compassion necessary to bridge the cultural divide that exists in this country today. if a customer or a barista wants to opt out of it it is not mandated. it's simply an act of kindness. >> well it seems everybody was opting out. starbucks said that the initiative has ended as of yesterday. they claim it was always going to be ended on march 22nd but that was never made clear when they introduced it last week. so what is clear is that the public generally viewed this simply as a bad idea. at least not well thought out. and now starbucks and howard schultz are at least smart enough to end it when they did. let's talk about it. hailey peterson is with business insider and denise john is the author of "what great brands go." it's clear howard schultz and starbucks have positioned themselves as a caring company. they care about people and this was an attempt by howard who clearly said he was very disturbed by the racial problems this country faced headlinewise and he wanted to do something about it. did it fit their brand? was it just not well thought out? what happened here? what did you think? >> look, i think it makes sense for businesses to be involved in the cultural conversations of today and for a brand like starbucks that is so woven into the fabric of american culture, it makes sense for them to want to engage on a topic that affects nearly all americans. so i think from that standpoint it made a lot of sense for them to initiate the conversation and as you said i'm not sure whether this was an intentional stop or not. it does look like they might be caving to pressure but if we take howard schultz at his word i think this is just part of an overall plan to initiate this conversation about race. >> let me be clear s this what a great brand does denise? >> i believe that great brands express their values and engage their customers through their values. >> come on bottom line. did this work for them? >> you know i think they started out wanting to initiate a conversation about race, and to that extent i think they've succeeded, yeah. >> all right. >> in a way that -- >> we're still talking about it. hailey, what did you think? good, bad decision? what's your take on this? >> i think it was a smart move by starbucks to scale back the part of this campaign that involved baristas talking to customers about racial tension and racial issues in the u.s. i think a lot of people were thinking when they heard about this campaign was what is starbucks thinking? i think some people were offended by the campaign also it made little logistical sense. you think about what these baristas are doing on a daily basis. they have to prepare food and make drinks and take orders and the line is, you know it's getting longer and longer. they don't have any time to step aside and really have conversations with customers much less have a debate on racial tension in this country. >> i was thinking the same thing, hayley. when it happened i thought my gosh, the lines are long enough. are you kidding me? and then we're going to talk about this? >> but at least, hayley like good traders, they know when to cut their losses right? whether they intended to do this on march 22 nd or not, they did, we're out of it and we move on. >> but it's a shame that this part of the program is the thing that is overshadowed. i think there are more substantive actions they've taken such as the hiring plan where they're going to be reaching out to what he calls disenfranchised youth and try to bring use of color into the starbucks job, an opportunity to many of them couldn't have. it's a shame that part of the program didn't get as much publicity as this coffee cup writing did. >> well the twitter barrage is what got all the attention. if there -- you know the head of communications at starbucks had to suspend his twitter account because he was bombarded with all the negativity. that's what really took on a life of its own. if there hadn't been that we would all still be talking about this and maybe this program would still be going on right? denise denise? >> i think any kind of grassroots campaign, and i should say that any kind of cultural conversation needs to have a strong grassroots component. any grassroots campaign is going to spark passion both on the positive and the negative and i think you take what you get in order for the broader good or the bigger mission which in starbucks case is to initiate this conversation. >> i don't know denise. sounds like you're making a lot of excuses for what turned out to be a bad marketing mistake on a company that's usually really really good at it. but thanks for joining us. really appreciate it denise and hayley. >> thank you, both. time for cnbc news update with sue herera. sue? >> bill thank you very much. here is what is happening at this hour. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu apologized to israel's arabs after a rallying call to his supporters on election day last week was called racist by opponents. in a video clip posted on his facebook page netanyahu said he regrets if he offended israel's arabs with his remarks. seaworld is mounting a public defense of its animal handling and a new advertising campaign that began today. this follows a highly critical 2015 2013 documentary. the nfl will suspend its tv blackout policy for 2015. it will then evaluate the impact after the season. the nfl is the only sports league that televises every one of its games in local markets on free tv. and if you're a big fan of peanut butter cups dive into this one using a kitty pool and more than 444 pounds of ingredients, a los angeles candy shop says it has smashed the guinness world record creating the world's largest peanut buttercup. i don't know how advertising that looks. >> i love peanut butter cups but that looks disgusting. that's a nonstarter for me. >> their intentions were good but they went awry. >> good for them with the world record. >> second segment about good intentions gone wrong. >> right. >> 28 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial average -- well the nasdaq is in negative territory. the dow is higher by 43. the s&p is higher by 2. >> up next a new forecast on how much and when the fed will raise interest rates and our jeff cox will have the details on this issue affecting the stock market every single day. >> and then later is the 401(k) experiment a failure, and is it an experiment? that story trending hot on our website right now. the writer of that story defends its premise just ahead. 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[ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪ so big banks are changing their view on when the fed will start raising rates in light of janet yellen's press conference last week. jeff cox has the details. >> thanks michelle. you know the fed guessing game just got a little more interesting. what would you say to an eighth of a percentage point rate hike? it's the scenario that's floated over the weekend in a note from goldman sachs economist who says while it's not his most likely case scenario he thinks investors have to hold out the possibility that the fed could do what he called a mini rate hike which would take that zero bound interest rate up one eighth of a point to see how the markets and the economy reacts. this comes as the fed itself last week lowered its economic forecast from the year. the fed had been expecting growth as high as 3%. now it's down to at most 2.7%. of course, this is going to give investors a lot to think about, and so far we watched sips the fed meeting last week the markets have been pretty good so far with it but, michelle and bill, i think it's going to be a very interesting scenario to watch as it plays out ahead. >> that's for sure. jeff stay there. this is a great story. let's bring in our own steve liesman and diane swonk from mess mesirow financial. we're left to more speculation where we guy thet an eighth of a point increase. what is going to happen here? >> it's possible it's not very probable. i think the idea that the fed would split hairs to that degree is a level of precision i don't think the fed has on raising interest rates at this point in time. and frankly, i think this federal reserve would rather hold off and wait too long to raise rates than have to do it incremental incrementally. it would send the wrong message to markets. they want to be sure they can raise rates and it's something the economy can handle when they do it -- >> so to put a finer point on it denise you're saying instead of doing a smaller than normal rate hike -- diane, excuse me, an eighth instead of a fourth are you in the karch it's more likely they would wait longer beyond june before they would do something? >> exactly. they'd rather hedge the downside. they'll be treading as if they're walking on thin ice. >> just to add to that real quick, the base case forecast is now a september rate hike and said it may come later than that. i think anecdotally at least that's the way the market is trending now. >> steve, did we get any hints from stanley fischer today? >> first of all, i have to complain about jeff cox's report. how does he do a story about a mini hike without referencing austin powers and saying it could affect billions? >> i blew it. >> i mean come on jeff. go for it when you can. >> good point. >> i think jeff's right that basically what fischer said is sometime between june and september, maybe in between and maybe after, but he said likely this year. what i think is interesting is fischer clearly is out there peddling this idea that no matter what the fed does this year and for the foreseeable future, it won't mean a whole lot as to the economy, and i just want to play for you something he said earlier today, which has fischer classic wry humor. >> there is one point which is critical to understand. when we raise the interest rate as we probably will do one day from zero to 25 to 25 to 50 basis points we will be moving from an ultra expansion monetary policy to an extremely expansionary monetary policy. >> of course he had the economists in the audience in stitches guys on that joke. >> great economic joke. >> you can really deliver a line. >> it speaks to how -- you just feel like fed officials are walking on egg shells. they're afraid to say anything too concrete. they just don't want to commit themselves at any point, do they? >> that's exactly it isn't it? that's what we talked about last week. the fed wants a noncommitment. they don't want forward guidance. they want flexibility. as steve put it maybe between june and september, maybe later, but we'd like to do it this year if we possibly can. let's focus on going forward it's not going to be predictable. >> so to show you it's not just women who are into commitment right? the lack of it. >> they're so committed to transparency for so long and now they've gone back into that alan greenspan mode where it's sort of like i don't know what they're saying. it's no wonder why the market gets kind of crazy when any little bit of verbiage changes, that it just kind of seems like it's policy on the fly at this point. >> well steve, i mean they're in a tough spot right? they have two mandates one of them is employment. the other one is inflation, which in theory isn't even going in the right direction in some cases, right? that's the difficulty they face. >> i think that's right, and i think, you know, this notion of the fed being in a tough spot or as one of our producers likes to say, the fed being in a box. look the fed is essentially paid to be in a box. they're always at this difficult position between needing to hike and needing to cut and being somewhere in between and right now what they're doing, and this gets to bill's maybe frustration right now, is we have been in a period of extraordinary transparency where they use this notion of forward guidance essentially to effect the market, bring forward future economic activity. that was part of getting out of the zero lower bound, and you're right in the sense that they're writing history right now. leaving the zero lower bound as far as i know maybe jeff or diane will correct me it's never been done. i don't believe any economy has left the zero lower bound without coming back to it sweden, japan, a bunch of those countries have tried to do it and never left. so if they do leave it, it would be the first time in history somebody has escaped the zlb. >> i think you're right. if they do go for this eighth of a point hike they have not done that since 1989. so, i mean it just goes to show just the fact it's getting talked about is kind of bizarre. >> it's a level of precision they don't have. another issue is that the fed also is trying to get outside of the box that they got themselves into the last time they did rate hikes where you could predict in every meeting was going to be a quarter point. they're saying listen we don't know the preset path of rate hikes. we don't want you to put into your equation and just plug in what the fed is going to do because we don't know. we're going to react to the data. >> what this transparency has led to is the revelation that they don't know. >> right. >> that they don't know and they don't agree. >> thanks guys. good to see you. >> see you, every. heading to the close, 17 minutes left. the dow is up 40 points. i haven't seen art cashin to give us the imbalance. the dow up to 18,168. s&p is up a point. nasdaq down 7. >> super tight trading range today. coming up, is the 401(k) a flop ? we'll debate it just ahead. left. it's more than a network and the cloud. it's reliable uptime. and multi-layered security. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner you're free to focus on growing your business. centurylink. your link to what's next. we are still waiting for the nasdaq to get to a new all-time high. how far away are we? we're at 5,019. needs to get to 5,048. ber thaththa coombs covering all the action at the nasdaq market site. >> 20 points away or so as far as the composite but on a day when we see tight trading ranges, we are seeing small companies and midcaps once again putting new all-time highs. that's really what has been helping to drive the nasdaq composite higher over the last month or so. biotechs have also been the big winners as well and a big driving force, and it's interesting on the fifth anniversary of obamacare being signed into law when you have hospitals, insurers drug drkt distributors all at all-time highs. as far as the big cap names, facebook also again at an all-time high today. and interestingly we see this, it's not a correlation, but sometimes it seems as though money comes into apple on the days when everything else is a little bit weaker and that's what we're seeing today. the composite is down, but apple is up. back to you. >> and that helps the dow now. >> it does. >> right, that's right. >> exactly. >> which explains why it's in positive territory with 13 minutes before the closing bell. dow jones is higher by 39 points. the s&p is higher by 1 but the nasdaq as you pointed out, lower by 7. >> art cashin walked by and signaled the imbalance is so the sell side about $500 million of stock to sell going into the close. all three major averages though pretty close to their respective all-time highs. we'll see how we close coming up in just a moment. my world, wall isn't a street. return on investment isn't the only return i'm looking forward to. for some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. start investing with as little as fifty dollars. about ten minutes left in the trading session. it seems like that $500 million to sell that art cashin mentioned is having an impact. we're coming off the highs of the day. the dow up 33. the s&p is up just a fraction. may turn negative and the nasdaq is down 8.5 points. joining me on the floor is jeremy hill and anthony chan. i don't think we've spoken since the fed meeting. they took patient out of the statement as you predicted they would early on but they also lowered their expectations for growth on the economy. have you? others have. >> i think everybody has because the first quarter obviously had some real severe weather impacts. today we got the federal reserve national activities index, and what you see is the impact of the weather. i love that indicator. it's a summary of 85 economic indicators and it's telling you the economy lost a little momentum. that's the same thing that happened last year in the first quarter. i expect it to come back in the second half of the year. >> we get earnings starting next week and the expectations are very low or those earnings reports in part because of weather, the stronger dollar but yet we sit near all-time highs in major averages for the stock market. >> it's not all bad news. if we look at what's out there, we're talking every day about oil, the dollar, interest rates, but let's go a little more knew wabs ed nuanced. we talk about volatility. although elevated it's not spiked up as much as one might believe. loans that potential could have a cap ex expenditure effect are actually kind of robust right now. that could be positive for the market and the economy overall. >> where are interest rates going to go here? >> interest rates -- >> we're below 2% on the 10-year. will we stay will for the foreseeable future? >> i think by the end of the year we're probably going to move into a range of 2.40% to 2.50%. the bund yields hovering in the 25 basis point range is suppressing yields. let's not lose sight of the fact that today all the fed speakers were basically saying this strong dollar is going to hold down economic activity so guess what? that means interest rates are not going to raise all that quickly. >> i'm smiling because michelle and i took note of an analyst earlier today who said he thought bund yields in germany were rich at these levels. >> it's all relative bill. >> right? at 19 basis points. but they could go negative at some point. >> remember what the european central bank said they would be willing to keep buying them until they get to a positive rate. if it goes really really low, they can lower that deposit rate even further. >> what are you going to buy here jeremy? are you buying here? >> there's a lot of money sloshing around and certainly if you look at a balanced portfolio today, we think things that are levered a little bit towards less dollar and more u.s. so maybe a big box retailer a target or something that's had, for example, a little bit more earnings power over recently -- >> target is sitting at an all-time high. do you think they could go even higher? >> i do. i think it's a good turnaround story. i think they have the wind at their back. >> and i believe that's true because what you have seen with this decline in energy prices that consumer got this big windfall so consumer discretionary stocks i think will be a good -- >> we haven't seen an evidence of them spending it there though. >> that's not completely true. if you look at the fourth quarter, consumer spending grew at 4.2% the economy grew at 2%. consumer spending growing twice as fast as the economy. that's not bad, bill. >> we'll come back with a closing countdown for this monday, and a little later, a spig big spring for the housing market you say? we have a preview and it's not that encouraging. diana olick will tell us what we need to know about the housing market coming up on "the closing bell." stay tuned. ssist systems. it recognizes pedestrians and alerts you. warns you about incoming cross-traffic. cameras and radar detect dangers you don't. and it can even stop by itself. so in this crash test, one thing's missing: a crash. see your authorized dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. hello. i am here to offer sophisticated investing strategies. ology can help you choose the right portfolio. monitor it. and automatically rebalance it. all without charging advisory fees, account service fees or commissions. that may be hard to compute. but i'm a computer. so trust me. it computes. say hello at intelligent.schwab.com ♪ ♪ ♪ (under loud music) this is the place. ♪ ♪ ♪ their beard salve is made from ♪ ♪ ♪ sustainable tea tree oil and kale... you, my friend, recognize when a trend has reached critical mass. yes, when others focus on one thing you see what's coming next. you see opportunity. that's what a type e does. and so it begins. with e*trade's investing insights center, you can spot trends before they become trendy. e*trade. opportunity is everywhere. a little less than three minutes left. that $500 million to sell art cashin mentioned is having an impact on the markets. this is the dow today very choppy trade much of the session. we hit a high early in the afternoon and now we're just coming off -- we're heading back to the lows of the session with a gain of just four points. we'll see if we can remain positive as we go into the close here. the 10-year yield still comfortably below 2%. the level it breached last wednesday after the fed meeting. today we're at 1.91 and change, still at those lows. and then want to show you the euro/dollar. i was supposed to do that first wasn't i? how did you guys know that? you went right to the 10-year. that's amazing. >> there's your problem. >> typically when the euro is going higher our stock market will go higher and the euro is sitting on the highs of the day right here bob pisani and -- >> that's one problem. >> but the stock market is losing altitude. >> one thing that did help the market earlier is crude reversed nicely. we had earlier in the day crude kind of turned around. i think that was a major help for stocks. energy didn't really lift energy stocks. other than that it was a quiet day. we saw the bond market stable as you saw, 1.9%. they love it when that happens. >> and we are about to turn negative here on the dow here. >> i think the euro moving like that is really a problem. when you get that euro strength and dollar weakness you tend to get a knee-jerk reaction and i think that's been a little bit of a problem. >> we didn't get a whole lot of response at all to the stanley fischer comments today and to some degree he was being rather irreverent with his comments today. they're going to raise rates when they're ready and they'll do it on a meeting by meeting basis and all the things we know is true about the fed, but he pointed it out as if he was revealing something special to us. >> the irreverent comment was we're going from a period of ultra low rates to a period of extremely low rates. i'm paraphasing. >> that's about what he said. >> i think he didn't move markets because he was very close to janet yellen. there wasn't anything new being broken there. the important point is the global markets are all sitting near new highs. germany is 2% from historic high. japan's 15 years. the chinese mainland market is seven-year highs, and the u.s. is a few points 100 points on the dow from historic highs. global qe is still working right now. >> thanks, bob. see you later. we're going out negative for the dow, down about five points after being positive much of the day and the nasdaq down 13 and with these markets near all-time highs, have 401(k)s been a failure because the average balance is so low? something we'll talk about coming up in the second hour of "the closing bell." welcome to "the closing bell." i'm michelle kbcaruso-cabrera in for kelly evans. we'll talk about why the dow fell out of bed in the last few minutes. here is how we're finishing the day despite being in positive territory throughout the entire session. the dow right at the close goes negative by 50 appointments in just a few minutes. the s&p -- so now it's down 10 to be clear at the close here. the s&p lower by 3.5 points and the nasdaq lower by 15. it had always been in negative territory but not by this much. we saw a big move suddenly in the dollar and the euro and oil started to reverse. let's bring in today's panel. mary ann bartell and jon fortt along with kate kelly. also "fast money" trader guy adami and cnbc distributor michael yo shi ka mi. guy, do you have any explanation for what happened? >> more sellers than buyers right, guy? >> let's not get crazy. the s&p was either side of up five, down five. let's not get nuts. i'll tell you the things that were interesting to me outside the s&p. i thought the transports. if you look at the iyt, since october-ish it's had trouble at 167. down 2%. something to watch. continued outperformance on the russell unchanged on the day, and you were mentioning the bond market. the other thing i want to bring up and brian kelly talked about this on friday the biotech index had a huge run early friday, gave it all back down big today. that's something that i think is worth watching as well. all those things outside the s&p sort of caught my fancy, mcc. >> mary ann, this is a point i keep making. we have earnings coming out next week and the expectations are abysmal for what they're going to tell us about corporate america and yet we sit here near all-time highs. >> it's all about fed policy especially if we're going to talk about retirement. where are you going to go to grow your retirement? you can't grow in cash. you can't grow in the bond market. the only alternative is going to be stocks. then when we look globally, it's not just about the fed. it's about rates being zero bound in europe even negative and japan. so this is a global fa none nonephenomenon. >> michael, sorry for being insistent but as we saw the euro approaching $1.10 that really seemed to put a damper on things. what is going on here? >> i think currencies are impacting the stock market quite a bit. i think obviously the market traded right around fair value, floating value in terms of its open and close, but i think the euro, really it is a significant issue. the euro and it's relationship to the dollar and i think when you watch and see what happens, i think bob pisani said when the euro does actually get strong it does tend to impact the stock market. so i think the currency situation and let's not forget with corporate earnings on an international basis in terms of american companies, it's going to have a big impact. so currency matters a lot. >> kate kelly, those earnings as we talk about are -- we're not expecting a whole lot next week when the parade begins right? >> it kind of feels like we're heading into what's going to be a very volatile second quarter in general, bill. i think about that on the commodity side. as well as between the disconnect with expectations of earnings and the stock market seems stark. a lot of volatility in currencies. with the dollar, for example, the dollar has been strong. that may be one reason why we're not seeing exports as strong as we might like and its influencing fed decision making. on the euro side europe continues to be troubled. now maybe we've seen a little progress with the greek situation, but, you know, it seems a little irrational why things are moving around with no apparent news to hang it on. so i think fundamentals are strong in many cases. i mean you can't forget about unemployment. you can't forget about gdp growth. at the same time people can't quite find their footing. are we overvalued in the stock market? >> that's a question we ask about the nasdaq all the time jon fortt. we keep waiting for it to hit that new all-time high. waiting and waiting. but that question kate asked, is it overvalued is it fully valued, is it undervalued? >> it depends which stocks you're looking at. you look at the biotechs hear in their own world. thinking about earnings, we're about to get a bigger wave in the coming days but in tech we've seen adobe and oracle and really those weren't as bad as a lot of people expected. both stocks have rebounded since their initial kind of volatility right after earnings and the bottom line was despite the currency stuff, fundamentally they saw strength in europe and other areas and they were bullish on the transformations they're trying to go through in terms of cloud and mobile and so those things continue to be fuel for the companies that are well positioned. >> john isn't there a little bit of a feeling we're get a little toppy though in tech. obviously you're talking about the nasdaq high we're looking for, but with etsy's ipo will that be the last sort of e bull yant tech ipo we will see for a while? is there more move for stratospheric moves or even just robust moves that might not make entire sense from a fundamental perspective. >> you have to consider a number of stocks have already come way down from when they were toppy. zulily down 77%. look at go pro. it's come way down. it was up near 100 bucks. now in the 40s. so some of these stocks have already, you know, corrected -- >> look at alibaba. >> yeah alibaba, another one. huge hype has come down all the way down to earth, don't know. but there are a lot of different types of stocks at play here. there's no one overall narrative. >> can i change topics? >> i wanted to make a point. >> you were at the stan fischer event and you came away with a very clear conclusion about when interest rates are going up. >> i think he made it very clear that the fed wants to lift rates this year but the tone of the whole meeting is that it's not happening in june and i think that was important. >> so september? >> well we've been forecasting at merrill lynch that september would be the month. i think the market is going to push out to september. i still think the fed is very data dependent. what was also very clear at the lunch today is that inflation is still a concern. now, they do -- >> lack of inflation. >> the lack of inflation. now, they do view oil as transitory which means over time they expect it to change but they don't really know when it's going to change. >> mary you guys issued a report today that generated some ripples talking about this very issue of how people are now too complacent with the idea that perhaps there will be no moch all year, maybe it won't be in june, but it's going to happen in calendar 2015 is what merrill lynch believes yes? >> we believe it is, but we also believe there are headwinds. oil is a headwind. the dollar is the headwind. wages or the lack of wages are also a headwind. so we really do believe as we move forward in the data and the economy hasn't been showing the greatest results. it's been mixed. so we do think the fed is data dependent, but from our vantage point right now, we think the fed will lift rates in september, but we don't think they're glued or anchored to that month. >> i was going to go to guy. what's your favorite dollar play? if we believe the dollar continues to strengthen before the fed raises rates or even as they raise rates what's your favorite play? >> i think the fed needed to talk down the dollar a little bit. i think they were successful. it will last a little bit longer, but i think the movement of the dollar to me to the upside is still intact against the you're o and all major currencies. to answer your question i think the tlt is the play on the back of it because i think rates are going to continue to ratchet down in the united states. if the bond market wanted rates to go higher they would have been higher six months ago. if the economy was the strongest the stock market suggests rates should be significantly higher. so the move in oil coupled with what's going on in the bond market to me speaks of deflation, u.s. rates lower. >> michael yoshikami weigh in on that. thinking about what stan fischer meant today when he spoke. >> i thought it was a very interesting comment because i think what -- you know if you think about it, strategists are really in between of either you have to get out of long duration because interest rates are going up or interest rates are not going up that much. they're going to hover around 2% or 2.1%. we're of the belief rates will stay fairly low. so in order to capture additional yield, if you have to be in fixed income and balanced portfolios have to be in fixed income, what are you going to do? you're going to basically have duration but you also have to go out and actually take credit risks. so i think it's very very interesting from a fixed income standpoint. we just don't think it's time to get out of all your intermediate assets and go short term. that was a play if you did last year didn't really work out. i think it will be a long period of time before the rates really raise significantly. we're talking about an eighth of a percentage point, maybe a quarter. your esteemed guest at merrill lynch says a quarter in september. what happens in junes when that doesn't happen? the yields fall again. >> rates are going to say lower -- >> which janet yellen pretty much said. >> but people don't believe it. >> they don't and they don't want to bleach it. we feel we're at the zero bound and rates have to go up. i do believe the fed does want to get off the zero bound so they have more flexibility in the next cycle, but they may not get the chance that they're really looking for. that's the possibility. >> here is the thing, they control the short end but they no longer control the long end, right? we're talking about long-term rates. the market is back to determining those theoretically -- >> correct. >> and that's the new territory we haven't been in for so long. >> we're not talking about how the european bond market is influenceing our market. >> very much so. >> and a the fastest growing assets are negative yielding bonds, and we've never faced an environment so when we compare our bonds to european bonds -- >> we look good. >> we look really good and you take a stronger dollar on top of it and we look even better. >> that's why apple is floating bonds in europe, right? >> doesn't this -- people would rather fly to safety even when they're literally -- it's costing them money to own this paper than they would necessarily take a flyer on a riskier piece of paper that's going to have a higher yield or even a stock. >> we're seeing that every day. >> thank you, everybody. stick around. those of you who are supposed to stick around. guy, see you later. we'll catch you and the rest of the crew on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. a new documentary called "billion dollar bully" is turning the heat back up on yelp. they'll be talking to both the movie's director and a yelp executive at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. do not miss that coming up on cnbc. saudi arabia says it will not cut production unless nonopec countries like america also cut production, and, of course that's not happening right now. that's for sure. >> right, because it's actually not a state-owned dictatorship where we can command from above. it's the market which is completely different, but what kind of power does opec have at this point to manipulate the price of oil. might be less than you think. >> meantime retirement is now the top financial concern in the united states. so why is the median -- get this, i love this -- i hate it actually. the median amount in a 401(k) right now is less than $19,000. one of our guests coming up says has failed us. that debate you do not want to miss. in fact you have been participating on twitter on that all day. we'll talk about it coming up on "closing bell." can data help cure a disease? the right treatment for you is out there. the problem is some of it's in this lab. some of it is in her head. some of it's in this new journal. and the rest of it is in your personal medical history. ibm watson can not only read this data, but understand it. it's trained by doctors. and it's always learning. it can help find hidden correlations and help your doctor recommend treatment options for you. right now is less than $19,000. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm. my name is bret hembree. i am an electric crew foreman out of the cupertino service center. i was born and raised in the cupertino area. it's a fantastic area to work. the new technology that we are installing out in the field is important for the customers because system reliability i believe is number one. pg&e is always trying to plan for the future and we are always trying to build something stronger and bigger and more reliable. i love living here and i love the community i serve. nobody wants to be without power. i don't want my family to be without power. it's much more personal to me for that reason. i don't think there's any place i really would rather be. the 234r7b8genergy markets remain volatile. the price of u.s. crude stayed just above $46 a barrel. >> industry's biggest players are gathering in new orleans and that's where we find jackie deangelis. she's hearing some interesting things down there. with the plunge in prices is this more of a tension convention? >> good afternoon, michelle. yeah, there's some tension here. but let me talk about what people really are discussing. they're talking about the cap ex cuts that are coming down the line. they're talking about rig count declines but they're also asking the question if that is enough to be able to stem the decline that we've seen in oil prices overwhelmingly investors are telling me they really don't think that it is. in fact, we're probably not going to see real production declines here in the united states until 2016. schlumberger talked about that in its presentation this morning. obviously investors were expecting to see something take effect from some of these precautions put into place by the end of this year. now, the fact that companies aren't saying anything that they're doing anything to cut current production is worrying some investors who have put a lot of money on the sidelines. they have a lot of capital they want to allocate to energy. all of this is very relevant because, of course you had opec saying that it's not going to bear the sole responsibility of propping up oil prices so something has to happen here in the united states to be able to stem those declines. now, today the opec daily basket price did fall under $50 a barrel and traders do look at that as an indicator where wti will go. it indicates we could see that three handle and we may see that depressed price hang around a little bit longer than a lot of people are expecting, and that's really where the rub is here and some of the mystery. the timing of all of this and that's what institutional investors are trying to figure out. but as i said billions of dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to go to work guys. back over to you. >> let's talk more about that. thank you, jackie. the drop in oil prices isn't swaying saudi arabia's oil minister as you just heard over the weekend. he said opec will not be responsible for propping up oil prices and opec will keep production unchanged unless nonopec nations also scale back. >> that would be us. joining us with more on that jeff "killer" kilburg founder of kk financial in chicago. you got more snow again. everybody thinks they got it figured out, jeff. we're still pumping oil in the united states so that means prices will have to go lower, maisch much lower again, so they're waiting for that to happen before they get back in this market again. what are you doing here? >> well despite the drama, bill coming out of opec, we are seeing more oil. that supply component. you're spot on for focusing on that. a lot of folks in chicago are looking for more of a bearish short-term output. we see saudi arabia they're talking about cutting production. it's lige that "three stooges episode, will a volunteer please step forward and mo and larry step back. opec doesn't want to be the first one to cut production. the minister disclosed the fact they're pumping 350,000 more barrels a day. they've actually increased production. right now short term the price of crude is going lower. >> kate what are you hearing from the hedge funds you talk to? >> well i think sort of the consensus among the folks i know is that we're going to have a very choppy second quarter and it's very likely we'll continue with a lot of overproduction in the second quarrel tiff to demand, maybe even a bigger disconnect than we've seen so far this year. which argues for much lower ti prices. we heard a bunch of handles, $30, $35. i'm hearing that a lot. who knows if we'll linger there. the question is do we stay or do we just touch it? i think it's going to get ugly. the tone out of opec is interesting. they're getting increaseingly defensive. they called themselves stability personified for holding the line at 30 million barrels a day on production and i know what jeff was just saying but it's sort of give or take. it's not an exact science with all these different countries and they basically blame the u.s. they shake their finger at the shale producers in north america, canada, and mexico may be on the hook as well for not being more disciplined with production to control prices. so i just don't think -- >> we don't do cartels well in this country. it's amazing. >> right. >> i keep hearing people still saying within the next 12 months oil is going to go to 70 bucks. what are the scenarios that get us there? is going to take a huge emerging markets rebound? >> maybe that would help -- >> demand has to go up. >> i think it's going to take the washout of a lot more producers. i talked about bankruptcy filings. it's been small companies so far and more on the natural gas side actually. but people are not going to stop pumping to jackie's point. they need their revenue. i was in houston two weeks ago talking to the new ceo of apache. they have really slashed their rig count but they're actually producing more because they need cash. they need cash to keep going. >> do you guys -- >> saudi wants to see more. saudi wants to see more prices go down because that's their competition in the u.s. so saudi very quietly is watching the competition go away and fire more people. you're right. >> what's the merrill position on oil? >> we've been pretty negative. i can say because i used to be a technical analyst, you have no technical bottom. >> once a technical analyst, always a technical analyst. >> that's true. i still look at the charts. there's no bottom. with the hedge funds, we can look at the large speculative position, and when you normalize that, they started to cover their shorts but they can go short again. they don't have a really significant short. >> right. >> that made me nervous that we haven't made a bottom and, bill, i think you brought up the most important component that no one is talking about is we have slowed down in global growth. so you have a double negative whammy. you have excess comply at the same time your demand factor is going down. >> when your clients call you up and say is it time to dip my toe in energy you're telling them not yet? >> here is the thing, on a relative price performance you're going to underperform for the next six to 12 months. i have high conviction in that. is there value in certain companies? yes. because there's a lack of income particularly in fixed income if you're willing to go into the energy market and be patient, you can get paid to wait. >> it seems to me if you are looking to add stocks now and you have a five-plus year time horizon, this is a great time to buy exxon and chevron is it not? >> that's exactly what we're saying but we're also saying don't expect to beat the market. >> right. >> i think because you haven't even turned in energy, that you have at least 6 to 12 months before the market -- or the stocks can even begin to beat the market. >> good discuss. >> thanks, jeff. see you later. jef kilburg joining us from chicago. >> is the improved workforce helping the casino industry? we'll speak to gary loveman. >> later an inside look at graph diamonds secret vip room that only the ultra wealthy are invited to visit. do you want to see a necklace worth $100 million? >> why didn't robert frank take me in this store? >> that got your attention. we're coming right back. some say buy gold. others say buy soybeans. i say, buy comcast business internet. unlike internet providers that slow down when traffic picks up, you get speed you can rely on. it's a safe bet. like a gold-plated soybean. reliably fast internet starts at $69.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. [ male announcer ] ours was the first modern airliner, revolutionary by every standard. and that became our passion. to always build something better airplanes that fly cleaner and farther on less fuel. that redefine comfort and connect the world like never before. after all, you can't turn dreams into airplanes unless your passion for innovation is nonstop. ♪ ♪ can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? ♪ ♪ can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing? ♪ ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ ♪ the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is can your business deliver? health care executives and state officials gathering in washington today for the 12th annual world health congress an open forum to discuss the impact and implementation of the affordable care act on businesses. >> joining us right now from that conference in this exclusive interview we're pleased to welcome back outgoing ceo gary loveman. good to see you again. welcome back. >> good to see you again. i'm not sure i like that outgoing title but i guess it's right. >> but it's my choice. you're stepping down that's all, right? >> that's right. >> okay. what was your message on affordable care act? thumbs up thumbs down as far as caesar's entertainment goes? >> the message of private employers is portions of the affordable care act are beneficial and largely other parts are not to relevant. the cadillac tax provision is a big deal. there are a series of fees and taxes that private employers don't find very encouraging. we're generally innovating our way around those but those need some reconsideration. >> and do what instead? >> do what instead is to not have the type of subsidy that those fees are intended to provide and allow greater choice among those who are seeking access to different types of exchanges. >> you bring up choice. i see in the notes that you were really focused on employee choice and a lot of the affordable care act for those who have to use it is about having very little choice actually right? >> that's right. i think the grateeater choice available to beneficiaries is the better. there's no need they be restricted at the state level. i think the minimum level of care might be too restrictive. there's ways to open which is generally a very good idea to give them greater access to a broader virt of choices. >> we all know the supreme court is going to rule sometime this term on the constitutionality of the government subsidies pertaining to affordable care act. what if they strike it down? do we just go into complete disarray or if you're still running caesar's at that point, what's the strategy then? >> well remember for private employers, bill it has very little bearing because we're insuring our folks and all the large companies that have large employee bases are insuring their employees privately. the people that will be affected will be those that are in the group that are receiving subsidies that the pobts of the affordable care act believe are not appropriately covered -- >> don't your premiums go up if that happens? that's my point. there has to be some ripple effect even for those people being insured who are not affected directly by the supreme court's decision. >> who foot the bill. >> right. >> i think what you will see is an immediate remedy introduced in congress led even by those who are very critical of the affordable care act to make sure those subsidies don't go away immediately. i think you will see an effort to try to smooth the transition and a new provision put in place. >> how are things in vegas? >> things in vegas are getting better. very encouraged michelle. i think you'll see operators there have a very good run at the beginning of the year. the business is more buoyant in large part because supply has been stable for some time. demand patterns are improving. we've enjoyed a great start to march madness. the casino industry having had a pretty tough run the last few years is really on the mend. >> what do you make of what's going on in atlantic city and is it suspectymptomatic of oversaturation where people can stay home and gamble? >> i think the problem there is you had gaming legalized in pennsylvania, in new york, in delaware in maryland and you had what was a regional monopoly in atlantic county new jersey exposed to a tremendous influx of supply in locations that were proximate to where people had lived who had heretofore gone to atlantic city. the aggregate market size grew but the portion available to atlantic city shrunk very substantially and circumstances there were not flexible enough. it's been very painful for atlantic city but the growth has been fairly substantial for the region broadly. >> tell bus theus about the state of the chinese gambler. there's a crockdownackdown in corruption at the highest levels. is it having any impact on gambling in vegas? >> it is a little bit, michelle. we just went through chinese new year and i think all of us in las vegas who cater to that audience felt it a little bit. it wasn't profound but we saw the business a little weaker than we might have anticipated it to be in prior years, and i think this anti-corruption campaign that they have been working toward has definitely had an effect and probably will for some time. >> along those lines, has macao peaked? they were such a growth engine for such a long time but things have definitely slowed down and what impact does it have on you guys? >> well, it doesn't have much of an affect on us. for better or worse we're not in macao. whether it's peaked or not, i don't know. there's a lot of new supply coming on when demand is relatively weak. macao is experiencing a little bit what las vegas did in the wake of the financial crisis where the intersection of weak demand and growing supply is very unfavorable circumstance for everyone. i think if the government gets off the corruption campaign even a little bit, you'll see macao heal up, but whether it will get to where it's been historically very hard to imagine it could, simply the growth rates it sustained for so many years were so high it's hard to imagine those will be found again. >> i wasn't implying you're in macao but i'm wondering the spillover it might have in las vegas. it's entirely possible people come to you instead of going there, right? >> a little bit. but at the very high end, i think this concern about attention to the spending habits of very influential chinese have had some effect in vegas. in a broader audience the broader traveling chinese audience, we haven't felt much effect at all. >> you are to put it in a silly way a math geek in a very big way, right? what do you make of negative yields in so many parts of the world at this point? how much are you watching interest rates and what's its effect on gambling? >> well, you know i never have been able to establish that it has any significant effect on gambling. i was fascinated with the comments you were making a moment ago. stanley fischer was my economics professor at m.i.t. when i was a graduate student. this course of action as undesirable as it might be in the broader sense, that no one would like to see this economic environment, the use of long periods of interest rates has really been the only buoyancy we've been able to see, so i think for discretionary activities like gaming it's certainly been beneficial and it's allowed high wealth individuals that are the biggest part of our customer base to be able to grow their businesses and reinvigorate what they're doing. >> i forget how many people stan fischer has taught. like we have so many guests on the air who studied with stan fischer at m.i.t. good to see you, mr. loveman. it's been great. >> thanks, gary. >> thank you for having me. gee still runs caesar's entertainment. time for a cnbc news update. >> greek prime minister alexis sip russ and angela mishgel put on a public display of goodwill appealing to greeks and germans to put aside their differences and work for a better europe but it was unclear if they had narrowed their differences on greek economic reforms. millionaire robert durst will remain behind bars in new orleans. this morning a magistrate ordered he be held without bail saying durst was a flight risk and a danger to others. three construction workers fell to their deaths when scaffolding collapsed at a construction site in raleigh north carolina. a fourth worker was seriously injured. so far though no reason for that collapse. on a lighter note would you believe healthy beer? japan's sapporo has launched its first health beer. it's been designated as a health product. it's aimed at people over 40 at risk of diabetes. it's a nonalcoholic brew and maybe that's why. less calories perhaps. that's your cnbc news update this hour. back to you guys. >> thank you very much sue. i didn't know gary loveman was a math geek to begin with. you knew that but tell them what you just told me. >> i believe he's the guy who invented the whole idea of the loyalty program. he was big data before big data existed. he's really good at that. that's his thing. >> i hope he puts that to use when he leaves caesar's always he will remain as chairman. so he's got something else to keep his mind active at that point. boy, this is a heck of a story. a little more than $18,000, that is the median amount in a 401(k) savings plan in this country right now and our next guest says that that proves by itself that what she calls the 401(k) experiment has been a failure. but is it? we have that debate coming up next. also existing home sales rising just over 1% last month, but inventories increased by much less than expected. find out what that might mean for the all-important spring housing season. it's coming up later on "the closing bell." you total your brand new car. nobody's hurt,but there will still be pain. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do, drive three-quarters of a car? 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[ male announcer ] now you can pay your bill... ♪ ♪ ...manage your appointments... [ dog barks ] ...and check your connection status... ♪ ♪ ...anytime, anywhere. ♪ ♪ [ dog growls ] ♪ ♪ oh. so you're protesting? ♪ ♪ okay. [ male announcer ] introducing xfinity my account. available on any device. this story on cnbc.com has been lighting it up today. the headline reads "is the 401(k) experiment a failure? "and it's been getting huge reaction among readers today. i tweeted it out earlier and got a huge response back from many of you folks while we've been on the air. the author of that piece joins us now. >> a failure, kelly, really? make the case why 401(k)s are a failure. >> they were never designed to be the primary retirement savings vehicle, but they've evolved into that and as you can see from the number in my lead the median amount in the accounts is $18,433 and that's just not enough to retire on. fidelity has an investment that out of pocket health care costs alone are going to come to $220,000 for a couple. so it's just not enough to live on. >> so is it that the 401(k) itself is a failure? no it's individuals choosing not to participate which is the problem, right? >> well, individuals have had a hard time putting money in. it's only recently that a lot of companies have started adding the automatic enrollment feature to their accounts and a lot of people have had a hard time putting money away with middle class wages stagnating and college costs rising. those things started happening right at the time 401(k)s took off. >> i covered the beginnings or the early years of 401(k)s back in the early to mid '80s and i distinctly remember we were being sold this story that penguins were going away the defined benefits social security is on weak legs at this point. you've got to do -- it's your own savings that will save you and the 401(k) is the vehicle if it's not an ira of some kind but the 401(k) would have the matching component from your company. why wouldn't you go into a 401(k)? but there are so many rules and then you're left to your own devices and the choices were pretty small. i mean there are all kinds of reasons why 401(k)s have not become the be all, end all, right? >> that's exactly right. aside from the difficulty people have had saving for whatever reason, a number of plans have had limited investment options. >> horrible. >> some of the options have had really high fees and people don't make good choices as individuals. we know this. individual investors sell low, buy high and they just don't do well -- >> we don't even invest. most of them just put the money in cash and left it there because they're saving for retirement. >> you were right, you were right. pensions are going away. >> that's what i was going to say. of the three inducements that you mentioned, the first two are happening. the third is probably true as well. so it seems like maybe the system does need to be fixed, but, again, michelle raises the point that people need to save more. they need to take advantage. >> can i give you one example from my family. a lot of family members who worked at polaroid and they thought they had a pension. and what happened to polaroid? and when it was all said and done, their pension got rolled into what was the government version of pensions. they were going to end up with a lot less money than they expected and they said, shoot, i wish i had just been given that money myself and i could have saved it myself and decided it myself. it's not like the 401(k) may be a failure but depending on a pension from a company that could be bust 30 years from now is not a good idea either. >> i don't see how this is the 401(k) being a file you're. isn't it everything else failing around the 401(k)? >> yes. >> and the 401(k) hasn't -- >> lack of communication, complicating mousetrap. >> people need to be disciplined to save the money to begin with and then pay attention. >> people don't have the discipline but they also -- they don't have the financial literacy. we've done a terrible diop in this country of teaching people about money. >> agreed. >> they don't get the advice they need. >> and that was part of the deal though. when they first came out they said -- >> from an adviser. >> your employer is not allowed to give you any investment advice. this is you making your own investment decision. >> we can't make people watch cnbc and listen to bill. i mean unfortunately, we can't make them. >> what were you going to say? >> this is the key. this is why the wealth management industry are in a secular bull market. people are going to need hem getting through retirement and through retirement. even we find some of our wealthiest clients sitting in cash because we find that most investor behavior relies on the past cycle. what is the past cycle? the past cycle is the tech bubble of 2000. we're focused on that now with the nasdaq. >> and the financial crisis. >> and the financial crisis. so they're not necessarily taking the risks that they need to grow their assets. in some of our retirement papers what we're writing, the risks is that individuals outlive their money. so this is -- forget about even saving, even if you have saved, you might even outlive your money. so there's a great need in this country for advice. >> kelley, last word. >> as you say, michelle pensions have their own problems, but what we've done in this country is a massive shift of responsibility for retirement savings to individual who just don't have the equipment or the wherewithal to make it happen. ten years from now we will have millions of people retiring with not enough to live on. >> that $18,000 number is horrible. >> too low. thanks kelley great stuff. >> thank you. >> the 2016 presidential race is officially under way. republican senator ted cruz is the first to jump in. coming up next john harwood tells us where cruz is heading to raise cash for his campaign. wall street writing checks? and these diamonds would go a long way toward funding anybody's presidential campaign it says here. but only the super wealthy will get invited to view or buy them at this secret vip room and we'll give you a rare up close look at the room and the stuff inside later on "closing bell." t predict the market. but at t. rowe price we've helped guide our clients through good times and bad. our experienced investment professionals are one reason over 85% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper averages. so in a variety of markets we can help you feel confident. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. 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diana olick has more of that story. >> it's not frozenomics it's fundamentals. the weakness in housing right now is all about supply. and that is way too little supply. there are just 1.89 million homes listed for sale according to the realtors. that might sound like a lot, but at the current sales pace that's just a four and a half month supply. a healthy market is more like six months. usually listings increase about 6% from january to february. but this year they were up less than 2%. and that is putting upward pressure on prices yet again. the median price according to the realtors up 7.5% in february from a year ago. that is a reacceleration in price gains. and the chief economist calls it quote, unhealthy. it's hurting affordability for first-time buyers who are increasingly cash strapped due to higher rent. and the realtors say they do expect to see more inventory coming on in the next few months but given the increasing demand it is not likely to be enough. michelle? >> diana, don't move. let's bring in the panel to react to the numbers that you just told us. i saw you nodding your head there, john. >> i'm trying to figure out what's likely to turn this around? is it more interest getting out from under water? is it better job prospects? >> it's home builders. builders are building at an incredibly low rate. if you could say that they aren't buying new homes. you have to get the move-up buyers to buy new homes to free up their home for the first-time buyer to buy. if it's someone listing and buying another home that evens out because it's one home bought, one home sold. that's not new inventory. >> i found myself wondering a different version of the same question which was is this a bearish indicator? obviously there's not enough supply which is driving up prices. in order for there to be more houses on the market you have to feel confident you can buy a new home and maybe trade up as well. not everybody would do that but you want that confidence. >> exactly. you don't want to get caught. i spoke to a friend of mine this weekend who said she put her house on the market expecting it to take a long time. it sold immediately. she went to 12 open houses on sunday. there were people everywhere. she's terrifyied she'll have to move into a rental apartment with her kids. >> what are the home builders waiting for now? >> what are they waiting for? >> i asked you first. >> the bigger builders are building more and they're doing well. the meat of this housing market is smaller builders. we think of builders as big in stock prices and stuff like that. but we need the smaller builders to get out there and build. they are having trouble getting construction loans. that's their problem. that's why they're holding back. >> and that's a holdover for the prices for sure. thanks diana. >> is this another version of people taking negative yields on bonds as well as keeping money in cash? this is a team we've been talking about. >> fear is still a driver in this economy. seven years later, still very much a driver. if you're buying jewelry from graft diamonds chances are you're probably already pretty rich. >> but for the super rich there's a secret room showcasing pieces worth more than $100 million. we're going to take a look behind the scenes of one of those vip rooms next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops tdd# 1-800-345-2550 even on the go. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd# 1-800-345-2550 300 commission-free online trades. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so if you get a trade idea schwab can help you take it on. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're getting a lot of questions tdd# 1-800-345-2550 about organic food stocks. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] sharpen your instincts tdd# 1-800-345-2550 with in-depth analysis by schwab experts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and if you want to run your idea tdd# 1-800-345-2550 by a schwab trading specialist, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 our expertise is just a tap away. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 what's on your mind lisa? 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>> $3.7 million. it has 151 carat emerald in the center. >> but this one of a kind necklace seems affordable compared to this. >> it's the most expensive watch in the world. >> it's called the hallucination. >> the watch with 110 extraordinary fancy colored diamonds. that watch is $55 million. >> have you had anyone make an offer for that watch? >> absolutely we have yes. of course. >> but you haven't sold it yet. >> not yet, but i'm sure we will very soon. >> i'm sure they will. and they had a broach with a 20 carat blue diamond that sold for $120 million just for a broach. you can see more bling and secret rooms where only the super rich are allowed on "secret lives of the super rich" tomorrow night at 10:00 p.m. eastern. back over to you. >> clearly i don't play in this circle, but -- so somebody made an offer for the watch and they turned it down? i mean -- >> obviously it wasn't the asking price. >> it was below. >> but that is one beautiful piece, robert. is it impressive in person as well? >> i think you would look great with that piece, kelly. >> talk to kyle. >> i think michelle would look with that necklace the green on the red today, i think that would work for you guys. >> i was thinking the same thing, robert. >> i was a little concerned about the teeny tiny hands on the watch. could you see the time? >> i couldn't see the watch face actually. but it's not for keeping time. >> $55 million watch, apple watch. >> it's not an apple watch. >> you can't answer it. it doesn't -- yeah. >> you're being very quiet here mary ann. you're not representing merrill lynch right now. you can jump in any time. >> we're all good here. >> it's okay. and robert tell us again how they say that? do that imitation? would you like to come upstairs? >> and when he does it he's the president and ceo there, when somebody's down there and they have sort of an entourage or look like they're looking at big pieces he literally says would you like to come upstairs? and i said please tell me you don't really say that. he said we do say that. >> i love it. >> it's a lot of russians, the middle east buyers chinese buyers. they like that privacy they also have a separate room where your entourage and security can stay while you're looking at diamonds. >> got it. >> this is the hard asset investment. >> that's for sure. look for that tomorrow night here on cnbc. thank you, everybody for being with us today. appreciate it very much. >> it was a pleasure. >> kelly's back with us tomorrow. "fast money" is coming up in just a few seconds. >> melissa lee, you going to buy one of those watches? >> i'd rather have a piece of property. anybody buying any something, keep that in mind. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, i'm melissa lee. stocks losing steam into the close but there are two red flags that jumped out at us today. red flag number one, the selloff in biotech. gilead with concerns over hep-c drugs. and vertex. the biotech etf closing down more than 2% today. our own brian kelly said could happen friday on "fast money."

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