Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150317 : comparemela.com

>> today will be the tiebreaker at least but it just tells you a lot about the month. it's been up it's been down. in fact an even number of times. >> but what's also interesting, let's all remember this is the day before the fed announcement and usually you get a very quiet day ahead of that and you're getting anything but right now. triggers aren't taking a stand either up or down ahead of the fed meeting. >> final hour of trade begins with the dow down 129 points after a strong session yesterday. interestingly, it's not like yesterday where all the indexes were up by about the same amount. the dow is giving up almost 0.75%. the s&p doing better only off 6 points. a third of a percent. and the nasdaq did turn green on the session. it's up by almost 7 points to 4,936. some interesting moves. >> let's see what oil has been doing as well. down another 73 cents or 1.6%. we're sitting near six-year lows for the price of oil, and i happen to know also that the price of gold has been very volatile in today's trade as well. so all kinds of cross currents going on. let's talk about it in our "closing bell exchange." our guests include rob morgan. we've got david kudla from mainstay capital management. richard weiss from american century investments, and our own rick santelli joining us as well from chicago. david, you've already shown your hand. you tweeted out a little while ago and got a big response to it, you're cautious on the u.s. market right now. why? >> well if we look at the environment we're in right now, we're headed towards an earnings trough. current consensus estimates for s&p 500 earnings down 5% for the first quarter, revenue down 3%. we have an imminent fed rate coming sometime this year most likely. we have a strong dollar that's affecting corporate earnings for exporters, multinational conglomerates and we've gone 43 months without as much as a 10% correction. now, there's some who will argue october intraday we were almost there, but decides that 43 months without a 10% correction. so we just think with the opportunities overseas the opportunities and alternatives in some other areas, it's time to be cautious on u.s. stock that is have done so well for us. >> rob, david brings up europe. the flows we have seen into europe have been extraordinary. a lot of people trying to dig through it, say is it too much? has there been a built of a melt up now that german stocks are at a new record? would you still recommend people buy europe or do u.s. markets still look attractive to you? >> well i would agree with david, kelly that from the standpoint of the big cap multinationals with the dollar going up you definitely want to underweight those, but i think small cap u.s. stocks still look pretty attractive. they're not really expensive here. and i think it's probably time to actually lighten up maybe on european stocks and international stocks in general. >> did you say small caps -- sorry, i want to be clear. you said small caps in the u.s. are not expensive? >> well they always are at a premium to u.s. big cap stocks but i don't think that that premium is unnecessarily wide right now. let's put it that way. >> all right. >> richard, so david cud la is cautious on the u.s. market you're not by any means. you're still hanging in there on that long bull market right? >> that's right. we've been overweight in u.s. equities and global equities for some time now, and we remain that way. now, we're making some shifts regionally, but we've -- our asset allocation funds have gotten the best of the u.s. market. we're domestically biased but we still sees the the glass as half full. the u.s. has the strongest real economic growth of the developed economies, and that's not likely to change for at least another year or so. so we're still bullish at the margin but just shifting around some of the regional exposures from the u.s. at the margin to europe. we still believe there's some more there and some opportunities there. >> before we get to rick david, do you want to respond to that? >> so to be clear for the guests and bill and kelly, i still believe we're in a long-term secular bull market. we're still positive on the u.s. in general, but for the reasons i stated earlier, we think there's some reasons to be cautious right now and with the opportunities overseas. i guess i would disagree with rob that europe i think is still attractive. i think the euro has further to fall as far as it has fallen but as far as it's fallen there are those multinational conglomerates and exporters in europe that bill benefit from the weak euro. europe is still undervalued compared to the u.s. we think through an etf that's hedged for dollar you can do very well. there's opportunities and alternatives. investors just need to look at their portfolio, look at their allocation allocation, look for diversification overseas because of the volatility we're going to see in the u.s. here. >> okay. >> oil is starting to look negatively correlated. rick i'm wondering if the remarks about the super cycle are making the rounds? >> oh yeah 1937 whoa fire and brimstone, it's '37 again. yeah, i have been reading it. what that tells me is maybe people are actually starting to believe normalization is a possibility. you know, we had ex-fed governor mark olson on earlier, and he thinks that definitely patience is going to come out and be replaced with something synonymous. we'll have to wait and see. but there's little doubt in my mind that the subtle reprieve we've had, whether it's the dax having a down day or the euro having yesterday as an up day and the subtle up day today is just strategically traders are taking a break because the hottest game in town is handicap handicapping the u.s. central bank against the ecb, moving in different directions, affords lots of financial asset and paper opportunity but maybe not exactly what both economies really need as a prescription. >> i'm just thinking of algos going through the that that sauer russ. >> rob, so you would avoid large caps here? are you fearful of multinationals and what the strong dollar is doing to them or what -- >> that's right, bill. strong dollar is the theme, so underweight the big cap u.s. multinationals overweight small cap. underweight in general international but still like the cyclical u.s. sectors like industrials and technology and we're underweight some of the defensive sectors like utilities and materials. >> so do you think rates are going up sooner rather than later? >> i'm probably at the sooner end of the spectrum. i think june. i think that the fed needs to get some ammunition before we get close to the next recession, and hopefully some of the fed governors that believe that are going to say that in the meeting over the next -- >> was that richard with the yes? >> no that was santelli. i'll tell you what we're getting long in the tooth on this expansive business cycle. normally they last 54 months. the fed is on borrowed time. >> i don't think there's any question we're long in the tooth in the u.s. recovery in this bull market which is our primary motivation to shift it over to europe which is arguably in the first legs of their recovery. if you look at it -- >> richard, hang on a second. now i'm 100% confused. i thought you were arguing the u.s. had the best growth prospects and we should go u.s. over europe. >> at the margin we're moving from u.s. to europe. we have been doing so start of this year and we continue to make that move. we're overweight in both cases but at the margin we're shifting to europe. the better values are there. if you look in terms of real economic growth europe is likely to see acceleration next year over this year whereas the u.s. at best is going to be flat and maybe even slow down a bit. >> you're not worried about the parabolic move in the german dax recently? aren't they getting a little ahead of themselves do you think? >> no, not at all. the markets are undervalued in europe relative to the u.s. no matter how you look at it. we have a bevy of metrics to do that. low interest rates, no inflation. the opportunities are there. look, if you're not early, you're too late. and so moving large amounts of money over you have to position yourself for the coming months not what's going to happen tomorrow. >> rick what are people -- let's talk for a second here. we haven't heard much about it. it's off about $5.50 but is remarkably steady. is that because the u.s. moves to tighter policy while everybody else stays accommodative? >> i think that's the connection. i'm always reading my e-mails, and today those questions you raised are teamed with did you see the big move in the hyg or the jnk? it moves down in junk volatility in gold. it makes perfect sense when the central bank is on the path we may learn more about tomorrow. >> david, what are you buying right now? >> we're buying europe. >> so what are you buying in europe? >> hedj. it is focused on the large multinational -- the mega caps in europe that will benefit from a weak euro. and on richard's comment, the key difference, and we're talking about the u.s. and europe here the key difference is europe is now embarking on qe. we know qe inflates asset prices. the u.s. is em barringbarking on a sol pi of tightening soon. that is a major difference between the u.s. market and the market in europe. >> got to go at this point. thank you all for your thoughts today. >> thanks, bill. >> thanks everybody. 50 minutes to go. the market coming off the lows. 107, that's how much we're off on the dow. had a lot of triple digit swings so far in this month. we'll see what happens as we head towards the close with the s&p only off about 4 points now and the nasdaq moving further into positive terd up 11. coming up the fed will wait until august to hike interest rates. the 10-year yield note will be above 2.5% by year end. our steve liesman highlights the results of cnbc's latest wall street survey on the fed. you may be in for a few more surprises on that as well. also ahead, tick tock on oracle and the earnings due out after the bell. there are the stocks moving today. instant analysis from our team of pros. oracle tough session. oracle, they're up. two names that report after the close. keep it right here. if you're running a business legalzoom has your back. over the last 10 years we've helped one million business owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here. a mixed day. let's put it that way. the dow and s&p are lower today but the nasdaq is higher and look at this. the s&p of the ten sectors in the s&p, technology is the lone gainer today with a gain of 1.5%. >> biggest decliner again second session in a row on two very different days overall is materials. pointing that out. >> strong dollar doesn't help that as well. we have a news alert. this is an interesting story on facebook. dominic chu, tell bus it. >> very interesting because now facebook will let you send money to your friends through its messenger app. facebook has unleashed this new product where they're going to allow the messenger app within facebook to allow you to send money to your facebook friends. basically what's going to happen is there's going to be an icon or a button you can push that lets you take money from a debit card a visa or mastercard debit card you have on file with facebook and debit your bank account, send money to your friends. what facebook is trying to do here is go after pop money, all these other platforms for peer-to-peer payments, not just business to business or business to person but you can pay your friends with this kind of a system or platform. now, remember, the interesting part is julia boorstin points out about this transaction is it was last year that facebook hired david marcus, who is the president of paypal to come run its messenger business. this perhaps not a surprise. the man who used to run paypal is bringing mobile payments peer-to-peer to the facebook messenger product. >> it all makes sense now. >> looking at what alibaba has done with ali pay, this is a place to watch. also a battle in the skies. landing in washington three middle eastern airlines fending off xlints about delta, united american, that they receive unfair subsidies from their respective governments and that's tilting the competitive balance. >> phil lebeau has that story for us. phil? >> this surrounds the question of whether the growth of these gulf airlines whether or not they are in a sense breaking the protocol, the open skies agreement which basically has been set up so airlines internationally agree to certain standards and protocol. here it is at the heart of the question, whether or not these three airlines as they have grown rapidly over the last five or six years, they now are serving a total of 11 cities. that rapid expansion, according to u.s. airlines they're receiving subsidies from their governments. here is the ceo of american airlines talking on "squawk box" about why he considers that unfair competition. >> what we found is solid evidence of over $40 billion in subsidies from those governments to the airlines to three airlines in those countries, and, you know, which allows them to provide service not at a profit, to provide service at a loss. something we're not allowed to do. something we can't do and again, something we think should be remedied. >> let's bring in tim clark who is the president of emirates airlines. he joins us from washington, d.c. tim, you have heard this complaint a number of times. what do you say when you hear doug parker say you guys are getting illegal subsidyies? >> well i'm afraid doug is unfortunately, very long in what he's saying. we will demonstrate unequivocally and very transparently the allegations that are being made about emirates with regard to subsidies and everything else are complete nonsense and we welcome now the opportunity to respond to the report which contained the allegations about subsidies to the various entities within the united states government and we'll do that shortly. >> tim, you're already in nine cities in the u.s. is this going to slow down your expansion at all? >> no i don't think so. we will continue as we have done providing excellent products connecting people in these cities to other parts of the world that we serve and the american carriers actually don't, providing high quality products at price points that people can afford. we're an affordable competitor which people value and i'm sure that we will be allowed to continue on that basis and, by the way, we will disprove the alleges allegations made against us and i hope we will receive an apology when we do. >> i know you're in washington to address this issue with members of congress or anybody else who will listen to you at this point, but let me ask you pointblank pointblank, do you and your fellow airlines there in the persian gulf receive subsidies from your governments? >> i speak as the manager of emirates airline in dubai and i can say categorically we do not receive subsidies from the government of dubai. after all, we have been in existence for 30 years. we've been flying to the united states for 11 years, and we have done that in a very commercial manner. we are required to operate commercially by our shareholder at arm's length of whatever they may do and produce cash positive results and create a very strong balance sheet. >> do you operate profitably? >> we are about to declare in a matter of weeks some of the best profits we have had in the 38 years. we operate 84 flights a week. they operate at 84% and 86% seat factors. they are extremely profitable for us so to be accused of operating at a loss or dumping capacity is, i'm afraid, stuff and nonsense. >> those accusations seem to be sticking more against the other two airways. what have you done differently to shore up your business? >> well you know our business is a very robust one. it's a strong one. our business model was designed in the late '80s. its scaleability became immediately apparent to us as the world started to move at a pace beyond the mid '90s. the emerging markets started to produce business that the legacy carriers had not paid any attention to. we started eded collecting these cities that had never been seen before. we became a facilitator, an enabler, a connector on an international scale. that's all we did and we've never lost money apart from the second six months of our existence, and we have multiple endorsements from the finance community worldwide. our financial statements have been in the public domain since 1994. so we've had over 21 years of disclosures, and anybody who has any complaints about what we may be doing has ready access to those financial statements. >> tim, real quick question to wrap things up here. when you look ahead over the next six months to a year where do you see jet fuel and by translation also crude oil, where do you see it trading at for the remainder of this year? >> a very good question. i'm one of the believers there is further fall to come. i do not believe we'll see the correction yet. i believe that it will probably fall to in the lower 40s and then it will settle probably between $50 and $72 in the course of 2016. much will depend on what happens to the dollar much will defend on what happens to the euro economies now that qe is kicking in. we're already seeing things happening there. the euro will fall a little bit further. things will pick up in europe so by the second quarter -- sorry, the third quarter of 2016 i think you will see an altogether different picture both in europe and the u.s. and that will affect the price of oil, so probably by then we'll be up to 60s and 70s. >> before we let you go i just need to button up my line of questioning here because doug parker is very specific about these subsidies he claims you and the other two airlines are receiving from your governments. where do you think he got that number and are you here to say you're being unfairly lumped with the other two? are they receiving subsidies where you are not receiving them? >> i'm really not going to comment on the financial segments. it's for them to make their statements. my job is basically to present the facts as they are -- as they're germane in the emirates operation and that's what i will do. >> have you spoken with doug parker about this at all? >> actually no and i wish that had been the case and that if there were concerns about what we were doing, whether it be richard branson and delta or doug parker to have engaged with us and said we're not happy and we want to show you why we're not happy and can you help us out on that. i'm quite sure we would have accommodated them because, again, we have nothing to hide, so i'm very -- i would have been very happy to have done that prior to all this starting, but the hare has started to run and we have to try to respond to catch it. >> tim clark, thank you for joining us. phil lebeau, thank you. >> thank you. >> very interesting. >> doug parker is in dallas, by the way. you can pick up the phone and give him a call. >> with the dow up 100 points. 35 minutes to go to the close. we're just under a triple digit decline. triple digit swings have been the norm. the s&p fighting to turn positive following the nasdaq. up next, are you running out of patience about if the fed will lose that term patience? steve liesman rounding up the results of that latest wall street survey and the pros will weigh in as well. we're back in two. you're driving along, having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pick-up truck slams into your brand new car. one second it wasn't there and the next second... boom! you've had your first accident. now you have to make your first claim. so you talk to your insurance company and... boom! you're blindsided for a second time. they won't give you enough money to replace your brand new car. don't those people know you're already shaken up? liberty mutual's new car replacement will pay for the entire value of your car plus depreciation. call and for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch to liberty mutual insurance and you could save up to $423 dollars. call liberty mutual for a free quote today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ ♪ ♪ (under loud music) this is the place. ♪ ♪ ♪ their beard salve is made from ♪ ♪ ♪ sustainable tea tree oil and kale... you, my friend, recognize when a trend has reached critical mass. yes, when others focus on one thing you see what's coming next. you see opportunity. that's what a type e does. and so it begins. with e*trade's investing insights center, you can spot trends before they become trendy. e*trade. opportunity is everywhere. good-bye patience hello interest rate hike in august. steve liesman has the results of our latest wall street survey on the fed. >> thanks very much. i want to show you our time line for what the market expects in terms of fed policy actions over the next several years. first of all, we see the word patience leaving tomorrow by the way. hats off to brian sullivan calculating it's a 12 point scrabble word the word patience. the first rate hike. in the first survey it was december. now it's seen in august. that would be inthe first in nine years. the fed should see the balance sheet decline. it had been 2016 same calculation, april 2016. moving to how long the fed will be hiking rates for tfers theit was the first quarter of 2018. a big part of the market thinks that the word patience comes out. 69% of our 38 respond ents see the word patience being removed from the statement tomorrow. one more chart i want to show you which is the slope of interest rate hikes. we bring this out to a lot of numbers here but here is what you need to know. this is the end of 2016 down here. still under 2%. that's the forecast right now. going out to 2017 the end of 2017, just at 3%. they see a pretty gentle slope. fed removes patience tomorrow but it will still talk patience bill, in its statement and in its other communication with the market. bill? >> we were talking about finding a sinynonym for patience. we have restraint, self-control tol tolerance, calmness. >> i applaud the exercise but i think the fed has been down this road and i don't think it liked the way it ended. it went from considerable time to patience. i think they're going to get rid of that and i think the new words are going to be about data dependence. >> how about we just talk about liftoff is what we're after, but that's a hiveyphenated word. let's bring in larry mcdonald for more reaction. when do you expect the fed to raise rates? >> our team -- at societe generale we feel we'll see a patience exit this week and a june hike. but i would just say to steve and all the viewers, we must listen to jeff gundlach. today he mentioned oil below $40 presents terrifying and i quote terrifying risk to the geopolitical situation which could alter the fed's hand this year. i think that's a very very important thing to keep in mind. >> larry, i guess i can't figure out looking at the market where it's pushing off expectations about the fed because of some recent data sogginess or instead looking at some of the high yield parts of the market whether it's worried about rate hikes and starting to read price risk. >> well, steve just made a great point. the fed is nearly at the end of the year up near 1% in terms of the fed dots and that's the individual fed governors projections. they're going to take those fed dots and massage them down dramatically tomorrow to soften the blow of the patience exit. i think that's the thing to focus on, and as they do that hopefully the market doesn't react too violently one way or the other if they do alter the dot path. >> steve, you're the expert on this, but my gut has long said that they're on some sort of an unspoken time table. they'll take patience out tomorrow, and then maybe test the waters as early as june as larry is suggesting here. it doesn't say they have to raise rates at every meeting succeeding that but just at least get one out of the way to see what happens. what do you think? >> i think you're right in substantial, maybe not though in detail, bill. here is what i think will happen. i think you're right, they're on something of a mission to raise rates this year. they think zero is inappropriate for where the job market is and perhaps where the overall economy is. talking about what larry was saying i thought it was interesting what he was saying about geopolitical risk. i think the fed sees a mathematical risk. what our survey shows is if you take 0.2 off inflation, 0.3 off from a stronger dollar and all of a sudden your 2% target you're down towards 1%. what i think has to happen is the fed has to see some confidence in the inflation numbers that we're headed at least back towards that 2% before rates rise. and i just think where you're slightly wrong, bill is i don't think they get that confidence as soon as june. >> okay. >> so larry, where does that leave asset classes? what do you do with commodities? what are your recommendations? >> well there's a really strange dynamic in the market. the dollar is clearly much more overheated than the 10-year. so therefore, if they do talk the dots down if they talk the dots down dramatically, you could see a slight reversal in the dollar a revaersal in the euro to the upside. there's some interesting currency trades. if you think of emerging markets, a lot of the emerging market names have been annihilated, so in the short term if they talk the dollar down, you're going to see a relief rally in the emerging markets. i would reference this kelly, this is very important. in the beige book i think we have like a 600% increase in the comments from the fed in terms of the dollar. so that speaks to -- it kind of leads us to something along the lines of what they might say this week and in future fed statements. >> larry, a quick question precisely on that. do you think the fed will be able to try to isolate the dollar, talk it down a little bit while still moving toward a tighter policy stance? >> i think -- i don't want to say they're forced to but the dollar's move -- jim cramer said it on a tweet last week. it's not the dollar's move. it's the speed of the move. you got to go back 40 years to see a move this fast and when you see a move in the world's currency that fast. there's just a lot of dislocation. there's $2 trillion of debt that's tied to oil and the dollar that's been created in recent years. so i think they're very concerned behind the scenes about the fast move in the dollar. >> i don't think the fed is going to talk down the dollar. i think what, if anything, it does, it will use policy to guide somewhat the value of the currency, but janet yellen will be very very circumspect when she talked about the currency tomorrow. >> we'll have live coverage of her news conference, and steve, i know you will play a prominent role with your questions tomorrow. we'll see you then. larry mcdonald, thank you, as always, for joining us. a little less than 30 minutes left. time for our cnbc news update. sue herera has the headlines for us. >> here is what's happening this hour. a government watch dog agency says the faa does not have what it takes to ensure u.s. air carriers comply with rules governing the safe transport of hazardous materials. the report by the u.s. transportation department found the faa lacks the training and guidance necessary to fix reported problems or determine how carriers should meet the requirements for transporting hazardous materials. a new global fund has been created to speed up efforts to treat als hike erzheimer's and dementia. the secret service wants to spend $8 million to build another white house. the director of the agency says the detailed replica of the white house would aid in training officers to protect the real thing. and they want to build it in beltsville, maryland, which is about 20 miles away from 1600 pennsylvania avenue. the art collection of the late former dharn of goldman sachs is heading to auction. christi e's says 90 impressionist and post-impressionist works belonging to john whitehead could bring over $40 million. the auction is slated for may 4th and 5th. whitehead died last month at the age of 92. and that is your cnbc news update this hour kelly and bill. back to you guys. >> one of the great art collections, that's for sure. >> beautiful. >> looking forward to that. sue, thanks very much. >> sue herera. 25 minutes to go. look at this we might not get our triple digit session. anything could happen though. >> it's way early. we have 25 minutes left here. >> that's right. the s&p meanwhile about 3 points negative. the question is can it turn positive as the nasdaq is up about 15. >> big earnings reports coming up. what is smash burger doing right that mcdonald's keeps getting wrong? could it have something to do with meat candy? the ceo of smash burger speaks with us exclusively to explain what meat candy is. and how much of a game changer is apple's new web changer planned for this fall? the pros will talk it out. yping, biotech to clean energy. whether your business is moving, expanding or just getting started... only new york offers you zero taxes for 10 years with startup ny business incubators that partner companies with universities, and venture capital funding for high growth industries. see how new york can grow your business and create jobs. visit ny.gov/business let's see, we're down 95 points. are we going to get another triple digit move? it would be the ninth triple digit close for the dow just in the month of march, and four have been up so far, four down. of the 30 components of the dow jones industrial average, six of them are positive and that does not include mcdonald's which today is down 0.81%. >> well smash burger was, in fact founded by a former mcdonald's executive and now some say it's eating mcdonald's lunch. it's growing rapidly adding more and more restaurants across the country and overseas. the latest addition will be in the uk and smash burger says their restaurants are like meat candy for strip malls. >> we're joined by the joe scott crane. seven years old. >> almost eight. it will be eight years old in june. absolutely. >> i have to say, i had my first smashburger today, it was delicious. >> thank you. >> the french fries i could do without but that's another story right now. what are you doing that mcdonald's is not doing right now? >> i think it's a new way to eat burgers and certainly a new way -- i think the consumer are voting with their dollar to eat out in general. the fast casual segment is growing mid to single teens in growth where casual and qsr is pretty stagnant. >> quick serve. some are saying they look at shake shack, has a little bit of a rough ride after the first earnings report. is it possible that you get seven great years and then seven lean ones so to speak? is this space maturing already? are people not only adjusted and excited about this concept but now maybe perhaps looking for the next big thing? >> i don't think so or we don't think so at smashburger. there's roughly 2500 fast casual burger restaurants. there's 40,000 50,000 qsr fast food restaurants. in general the entire platform of fast casual is growing. we think the white space, it's hard to put a number on it and it's scary to put a number on it because it could be so broad and big but we think we're just now cracking the code. >> for a while price was very important. you know you can get two burgers for this price. all of the companies were going for that. is that not the motivating factor anymore for you guys? it's more about quality and freshness and all of that over price? >> it's about value is what we look at. and what that means is what people pay for what they didget. we've done a lot of consumer research over the last several years and most recently about three months ago, and when people can -- when they want to spend to get what they want to get, that's a good value. it's what you get in the experience. our enhanced service system. we deliver the food it is the fresh ingredients. it's our fresh, never frozen. the whole smash is people think smash, i was a kid, don't smash the burger you dry it out. our whole process of smashing the burger locks in the juices and the fat in such a fast period of time, it causes the sear, the meat burger. you have to scrape it off the grill to keep the big sear on the burger. >> you're opens other new york city location where? >> just a few blocks from here. fulton. >> that's going to be dangerous. that location, does that mean you have ambitions to go public as well? >> certainly at some point in time, that's an option. we're looking to grow to. at some point in time will there be that opportunity and will we look for the opportunity? possibly. we have a solid capital structure, an unbelievable partner in our senior debt that we just are running the business for the long term. >> as i said, and i'm not trying to endorse a company, but it was a delicious burger. one of the best i have ever had. but the toothpick tries -- >> got to work on that. >> nonstarter for me. >> crispy -- >> rosemary. >> thank you. i'm biased. i should recuse myself. how many employees do you have? >> just under 7,000. >> any upward wage pressure? are you paying more because you have to or because the laws are changing or to retain workers? >> no. we pay more because we want to pay more. we run about 20%, 25% above the minute wam and we do that because we index our competitors. we want the best service and the best employees in the business and, therefore, keeping the turnover down sales growing, and a development plan to grow 60 to 80 restaurants a year out of our baseline restaurants. >> all right. >> once again the difference between kelly evans and mee she wants to talk news i want to talk french fries. >> we need to have a french fries taste test. >> scott crane of smashburger, continued success. >> thank you. >> thank you for being here. >> 17 minneapolis left inutes left in the trading session. the dow down 112 points would be the ninth triple digit close we've had so far this month if in fact, it finishes that way. although technology is moving higher today. the nasdaq up 10 points. >> plenty to watch after the bell. we have oracle and adobe reporting results. we'll bring you those numbers the second they hit the tape. we'll have plenty of analysis. have you heard this term? boomeranging kids. yes, i have. it's when your kids move back into the house in their 20s or even older. yeah, that happens. and it's happening more and more, and it's ruining many americans' retirements. sharon epperson has a special report with advice on how to make sure that doesn't happen to you coming up. thing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. so why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision or any symptoms of an allergic reaction stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. why pause the moment? ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. for a free 30-tablet trial go to cialis.com welcome back. dominic chu keeping an eye on the movers for us the final moments of trade. >> right now down about 104 points. we're off our session lows but still we'll watch the dow closely for the last 12 minutes we have here. may search rejecting a $16 billion bid from rifle mall owner simon property. macerich says the offer undervalues the company. simon responded by saying given this scorched earth response, shareholder should scrutinize the motives of the board. stifel nicolaus upgrading alibaba to a buy and adding it to the select list citing long term benefits improvements to the overall platform and we'll finish with shares of conocophillips slipping. the energy giant announcing a three-year plan to cut capital spending by $3 billion. however spending on some drilling projects is expected to increase. those shares down but still again with the rest of the market off of their socialession lows. >> thanks a lot. 11 minutes to go. >> and the dow is down 103. art cashin just walked by. the bias is to the buy side right now as we head towards the close. $300 million of stock to buy going into the closing bell right now. >> we've had some big swings lately. stick around to find out if the luck of the irish could turn the red arrows in green. we're back in two. stay with us. now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. it's never been easier with so many networks all in one place. get live tv whenever you want. the xfinity tv go app. now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. welcome back. eight minutes left in the trading session. the dow down 105 points. so far this month out of 11 trading sessions, the dow has had 8 triple digit closes 4 up 4 down. it's been that crazy a month here. we'll see how we do as we head to the close. joining me on the floor of the big board, dan mcmahon and brent shootie from bmo global asset management. what do you think the market wants to hear from the fed tomorrow? >> buzz word if you ask anybody is patience and what are they going to do with the patience word? >> do they want the word to come out? >> i don't think they mind if the word comes out continued they provide to be patient. what they don't want is jumping the gun. >> do you agree? >> i agree. the market is so focused on patience, and the volatility you mentioned is going to be with us for a while because when a central bank decides they're going to come out of the market everybody worries about what next. i wouldn't be surprised to see more 100-plus days in the coming weeks and months. >> one of the debates we had is what to do about europe? so many people like europe right now because of the quantitative easing beginning over there. yet when you look at charts europe has had a great run so far. it's almost becoming a crowded trade or am i wrong about that? >> we would think -- >> look at the dax. >> we like europe and so we've moved more money there. we spent five years overweight the u.s. and now you're at a point where valuation is more supportive of europe monetary policy is more supportive fiscal policy is more supportive and you have the ecb willing to backstop risk which is the fed is saying they're 23409 going to do. >> the strong dollar helps european companies. >> absolutely. >> we're seeing the same thing. a modest shift from domestic equities into international equities. you have several markets or bourses that are up double figures already this year, but if you go back to the first two months of qe1 in the united states, two months in if we were up 23%, it was a good buy. >> you see a repeat in europe of what happened in the united states with our own fed started quantitative easing? >> it's not necessarily apples to apples because it's a dispar rate economy, but it goes back to the old measure don't fight the fed and don't fid the european easing. >> the strong dollar continues? >> i think it's due for a breather. there are a lot -- that's a crowded trade, probably one of the more crowded trades and each one of those currencies has a lot of easing priced into it already. i think the euro fell from 140 to 104 in three, four five months and that's a pretty violent move. >> jim cramer mentioning it's the strongest move in the dollar in 40 years. >> absolutely. >> it has to have some sort of a breather. good to see you both. dan and brent joining us. we'll come back with a closing countdown with the dow down 105 points and then oracle posts results after the bell tonight. we'll have the numbers the second they hit the street. we'll break them down for you and see what the market does with it and get you the instant analysis as only "closing bell" can do. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so if you get a trade idea about, say organic food stocks schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪ coming up on the two-minute mark. time for the countdown. we'll keep showing this chart until it stops happening. if you just joined us we were talking earlier of the 11 trading sessions in the month of march, we have seen eight triple digit moves -- closes for the dow, four up four down and today looks like we're going to break the tie with a fifth down close triple digit for the industrial average and for the month the dow is down as a result right now 1.5%. tremendous volatility. sawtooth moves for the industrial average. ahead of the fed announcement tomorrow, the 10-year yield is at 2.05%. it was at 2.08% a little earlier. down four basis points. bob, pisani what does the market want to hear? everybody is expecting patient to come out. >> i'm betting they're going to take patient out because they have nothing to lose. why telegraph to the world we're not going to do anything for the next two sessions but that doesn't mean they will lose their patience. janet yellen is the anti-drama queen. i think her commentary, her presser is going to be very level and she's been great at it so far. and here is the problem with that sawtooth that you said. what do you do if you're a global investor? we know qe works. qe works for stocks. knowing that why wouldn't you invest in europe? why wouldn't you invest in japan? it makes some sense. it's not a stupid idea. and that's why we're seeing all that money flowing into europe right now. on the other hand, the u.s. is where the growth is. so what do you do? traders are going back and forth as the dollar and euro goes back and forth. that 2% yield you just pointed out here to me that's a very good indication the bond market is not yet concerned that there's going to be any abrupt move from the fed. remember we're at 2.0 something right now. i think that's a sign they're not exactly concerned. when it comes to the fed, stock traders watch the bond moves. >> yes, they do. thanks bob. happy st. patrick's day everybody. tomorrow we will have live coverage of janet yellen's news conference beginning at about 2:00 eastern time right here on cnbc. right now getting ready for oracle's earnings among other things on the second hour of "the closing bell" with kelly o'evans. see you tomorrow kelly. >> thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell." happy st. patrick's day. i'm kelly evans. here is how we're finishing the down day. couldn't quite get the green for the occasion. we got some with the nasdaq. 4,937 as it claws back to 5,000. the s&p giving up 7 points. 2,074 is the settle and the dow off 130 points before the fed meeting tomorrow, and i have a feeling that's how the headlines will be written. let's ask the panel what they think. joining me evan newmark, jon najarian, and carol roth. with us for more on today's market action and oracle's earnings report due out any minute "fast money" trader guy adami and dan morgan. great to have everybody here. dr. j, what's your read? is this about the fed, nay, yeah? >> no, it will be for 24 hours or less but what it has been about, kelly has been how fast people can not be hedged in the market. in other words, it's a dynamic hedge people are throwing on both against currencies, against commodities and these when they're moving as fast as they are right now, people can't keep up. so you've seen continuous chasing of that market whether it's commodity like crude oil or whether it's the currencies like euro versus dollar and i think that's what's really throwing -- >> at some point you can't see out of the garden you're kind of boxed in. >> and people want to be careful because they don't want to over hedge at the wrong time. overhedging at 112 to the euro would be pretty bad down here depending which side if you're european hedging this way or american hedging the other way. so there's a lot of moving parts right here but certainly janet yellen and the fed are playing into it tomorrow. >> a big part of it. >> i try to stay out of the hedges and out of the weeds. yesterday the market was up ahead of the fed. today it's down ahead of the fed. interestingly enough we had some bad economic data today, and we really haven't had that much good economic data other than the quote, unquote, good jobs data which i would contend really isn't that great. so theoretically there should be some better sentiment in the market from my perspective. i think it gives the fed a reason to keep interest rates where they are for longer so i'm somewhat surprised that we're seeing a day like today ahead of the fed with the kind of information that came out today. >> let's see, we're getting the oracle results right now, how these affect the teamape. josh is going through the numbers for us. >> kelly, oracle reporting here 68 cents on $9.33 billion. the street was looking for 68 cents on $9.46 billion. oracle saying cloud revenue jumped 29% to $527 million. oracle's ceo says they have a real chance to sell more software service and platform as a service. new business this coming quarter than any other cloud service provider. saying he thinks their hypergrowth in the cloud comes as a big surprise to a lot of people. conference call starts at 5:00 p.m. eastern. investors looking to hear more about guidance and color and insight about the company's cloud business. back to you. >> i'm going to dangle some red meat for carol. oracle matches pretty much on its earnings. misses on the revenue on the top line and boosts their dividend to 15 cents from 12 cents a share. >> it's interesting, i wonder as they transition their business model as so many of these companies are to these cloud providers if they are going to see any kind of multiple expansion with that shift in business model. i think if you have any sort of thesis about why you may want to buy into this company, even though there is somewhat of a painful transition going on, that may be one of the reasons, but interestingly enough i haven't heard a lot from them around the thesis of small business. if you look at microsoft and you look at the saps of the world, they have been focused on small business as part of the transition to the cloud. i haven't heard anything from oracle so that's something i would keep an eye out. >> let's ask dan. dan, what do you think about these results? >> well kelly, looking at the numbers, the key number as you know was that cloud figure which i was looking for about $530 million so they were pretty much in line with that a little bit below, 28%, 29% growth. as you have been talking about the key is this transition they're making whether they can give up the incremental revenue on their older model, which is their standard licensing growth which i was looking for a little bit over $2 billion, down about 4% year-over-year and whether they can increase incrementally every quarter to go above the losses that are being on their core business which relates to database and erp. initially looking at this kelly, it looks like they hit that cloud number which is what everybody is going to zero in on just like what we get with microsoft, everybody zeros in on the cloud number. so it looks pretty good but official we want to get a little more information. >> shares initially negative on that report. now slightly positive. guy adami, what's your view on this one? >> everybody throws around this cloud like it's going to cure obesity. people throw it around and think 90% of the people that talk about it myself included, probably don't know what cloud is. and my concern is with everybody talking about it is it becoming commoditized? that said, it's still not a huge portion of oracle's earnings. let's put it out there. it's probably 5% to 8%. revenue miss concerns me. eps okay. still not an expensive company at 13 times forward earnings. i think it's good enough to get the stock back to levels we saw a couple months ago. >> evan where does it leave us? >> i think it leaves us where we started which is basically in the same exact place. the market has gone basically nowhere this year. the u.s. market at least has gone nowhere, and i think it's afforded opportunity for investors to sit back and ask themselves one fundamental question which is will the u.s. economy finally decide to grow at a reasonable pace going forward? is the u.s. economy fundamentally different than the japanese and european economies? because basically the market right now is kind of saying you know what? interest rates are not going to go up very much if at all. the u.s. economy is going to be kind of okay but not very -- nothing special. that's what oracle's earnings are kind of saying. as we look forward over the next nine months before the end of the year you have to ask yourself is something dramatically going to change? >> do you think something dramatic is going to happen? >> i don't think it's going to be dramatic but i'm a believer in american exceptionalism so i do not believe that the u.s. is going to end up like europe and japan, so i believe rates will go higher the u.s. economy will finally start to grow north of 3%, but it's not going to happen right away. >> but evan to be exceptional don't you have to invest in that exceptionalism? we can't just be exceptional because we think we're exceptional. we have to invest capital to maintain that level of exceptionalism which u.s. companies are not doing. >> u.s. stock prices are exceptionally high right now. so it depends what you pay for that growth. right now when you're paying 17 times forward earnings you're basically saying, you know i believe in growth. if it turns out that the u.s. is not exceptional, the stock market should go down because the multiples should go down. i happen to think things are okay. >> what do you think, dr. j? >> margins over oracle shrank just a little bit, so in terms of that particular story here rather than the whole economy, the margin shrink will be something people pay attention to as much as potentially a slight miss on the revenue. so those are things that you would rather if you're long which i have no position in oracle right now, but if you were long you would rather see that revenue number come in slightly above and the margins holding instead of shrinking. >> what names excite you most in the market right now? >> i think we want to be focused in on some of the dividend-paying stocks that have been hit by folks thinking that the fed move which could have that patience word removed tomorrow, i think when we jumped up after the last employment data kelly, and we got to 2.26% for the 10-year, i don't think we get that high for the rest of the year. i think 2.26% is, you know way out there compared to where we'll be with -- i mean basically europe has 63 billion a month they're throwing at the markets. i think they're going to continue to push rates to zero. they've already done that in spades for short term. anything five years and under is trading at a negative yield over there. >> right. i'm just guessing that you totally agree with that guy? >> yeah i do agree. doc and i have been steadfast. i think the reasons why we think rates are going down are different, but it doesn't matter. i think we both feel they're going lower and ths fascinating to me that the fate of mankind hinges on one lady's word tomorrow, whether she uses it or not. that's absolute madness. if the market wanted rates to go higher, the bond market would have raised rates months ago. the reality -- >> but that's the 30i7b9 isn't it? >> u.s. rates are going down regardless of what jaw boning happens tomorrow. >> so it doesn't all rest on what she says. >> no i don't think -- it might for 24 hours, but it's madness to think that -- listen, the genie is out of the bag there. they might think they control it but they have lost control. the forces of the market are firmly in control and we're in a deflationary environment. look at the move in crude oil. look at the elevated oil volatility volatility, the ovx trading around 60 three times what it typically is. doc can speak about that. it's right out there in front of you. you just have to be willing to see it. >> i don't mean to interrupt. we want to get one more earnings alert. it's on adobe following this one after hours with our jon fortt. hi jon. >> actually adobe's numbers look pretty good. revenue coming in at $1.1 billion. a little stronger than expected and nongap earnings per share at 44 cents versus 39. stock is down a bit after hours though. a little more than 4% and the reason why could be that the cloud subscriber number, a little weaker than expected. the street was looking for something closer to 600,000. 573,000. adobe came in at 517,000 net subscriber adds. the question is is that people churning off the creative suite? that's sure to be a question on the call as is the guidance for this current quarter, kelly. >> thanks jon fortt. thank you very much. dan, a final question to you here, so adobe a bit of a miss. oracle's numbers look a little better. separate for us the winners and losers in the space at the moment as you see them. >> it's kind of interesting, kelly. if we go back and look at s.a.p. hewlett-packard is a big enterprise player ibm is a big software player all three of those companies pretty much negative in terms of revenue on their software. oracle looks like an okay number. obviously we'll get, like you said, on margins and other things. adobe number doesn't look quite as good as everyone expected. one thing to remember is adobe is kind of ahead of oracle in terms of they've gone a little bit further in making that transition over to the cloud in terms of more of a subscription based model. oracle is in the process of doing that with their acquisitions. it's interesting to see how adobe does as kind of a down the road forward looking on where oracle may be in a year or two. software is a tough market right now. >> and a very competitive one. dan, thank you very much for your thoughts on that this hour. before we jump evan newmark, are you in the low rates for longer camp? >> you know i'm not, kelly. i agree with guy, it is total madness that the future of the western world hinges on what janet yellen has to say tomorrow. i agree, that is totally ridiculous. but it's also totally ridiculous that the european central bank is flooding a market that doesn't even need the money with buying trillions of dollars worth of bonds. that is also ridiculous. i believe that things will finally normalize this year. it may take most of the year but things will normalize, and if guy adami and john do not believe that the u.s. economy will grow north of 2% i have no understanding of why they would buy a stock right now. >> guy, quick last word. >> stocks can go higher in this environment. that's been proven time and time again. it doesn't matter if it makes sense. that's what's been going on. i still think rates go lower but you have to tune in at 5:00 we have a kicking show coming up. >> that's the tease. really appreciate it. guy adami this hour. much more coming up at 5:00. they're also going to have the real estate activist investor looking to convert mgm resorts into a reit. don't miss it. the markets tend to take a wait and see approach before a fed meeting. why has there been so much volatility the last couple sessions ahead of that press conference? a pair of top market watchers join us next. and apple reportedly getting set to launch a web tv service later this year. will it be a game changer or just a cable copycat? after all, it's a plan to take a bunch of channels bundle them for a single price. isn't that the cable model? we'll talk about that coming up on "the closing bell." welcome back. march has been a roller coaster ride for this market. take a look at the chart pattern in the dow just this past week. up and down. what's causing all this volatility? today and yesterday especially. we normally see markets in a wait and see pattern two days before a fed announcement. david sowerby and ron insana join us to break it all down. welcome, guys. ron, is there something different, insidious if you will about the stock market action? >> despite the fact that the market is extremely choppy when you talk about volatility and the vix spiking into the high 20s or 30s or 40s, that's real volatility. this i think is the market trying to adjust or certainly trying to anticipate what the fed's language is going to be tomorrow and then determine whether or not it needs to reprice itself for an earlier than recently anticipated rate cut. so i think -- rate hike. pardon me. this is the typical movement you would see. it feels a lot more heady because we're at higher levels but it seems to be fairly routine activity before a potential change in fed policy. >> david, what do you read into it? >> i think markets don't like uncertainty. there's more debate with respect to whether the fed will move in june or perhaps later, but i think volatility can be your friend because volatility as long as it's reasonably tempered, what volatility does is it creates a greater dispersion between the haves and the have nots among security prices between good and bad companies, and as a stock picker i like having dispersion between good and mediocre companies, kelly, so i embrace a little bit of volatility as long as it doesn't go too high. then we get repeats of bear markets. >> let me ask you a question about that david. you say as an active fund manager you welcome volatility. >> yes i do. >> the active fund managers at the period of highest volatility, 2008 2009 2010 which were extremely volatile did terrible. how can you say you enjoy volatility when you would have been much better off picking an index fund back in 2008 or 2009 than trying to ride with an active fund manager? >> we can debate 2008 as a better year for active investors. 2009 i think was a bit more of a headwind as volatility peaked and those were extremes but if you get volatility accompanied with more dispersion between the top and bottom performing stocks and you're able to identify between pretender and better performing company then i think as an active investor you can win. we're seeing in 2015 in the first 2 1/2 months of the year after a very difficult 2014 it's a better year for adding value as an active investor and i think quickly to the overall market. volatility is about 15 or 16. as long as it stays below 25 we can still see a good backdrop for overall gains in the market. it's when it goes from 15 to above 30 then we get repeats of 2002 2007 2011 when it can be problematic for the market. >> yeah. ron, this is carol roth. i wanted to ask you if you think that this is somewhat of a return to normal? it seems to me we've gotten a little spoiled. volatility seems like something that should be normal in the market and over the course of my career has been very normal in the market. it seems like we've been very spoiled over the last couple of years. so perhaps as people are seeing that the fed may start to get out of the way at some point in the future the market is returning to some stage of normalcy. maybe not normal sticy but some state of normalcy. >> for the mast couple years the market has been reasonably normal when compared to the extremes of 2008 or 2000 or 1987 or whatever years had major declines. bear markets, by the way, come and go on a cyclical basis. even a 20% or 30% decline in stocks would even be normal. we have had a long bull market. pull backs are relatively routine. i think the market will have to make an adjustment unless the fed surprises us tomorrow and says they will be patient. that would be a bullish surprise and would get the market back in gear. >> it would. >> you know it's interesting that most people who complain about the economy not being normal also want the fed to normalize interest rates and there seems to be some cognitive dissidence in that i find not only amusing but to a certain extent when you're trying to invest a bit troubling and misleading as well. >> dr. j? >> just as savers are frustrated by zero interest rates, traders are frustrated by volatilities in the 12 range or less. we did have a period where we saw single digit volatility over the past three years. so to see it back here in a more normalized area like you said, maybe 16 to 20 22 again, i'm not saying i trade better when it's 40 because i think that's panic area. >> nobody does right? >> right. and i know that's not what you said either. but what i do like is when there's the back and forth. when it's not just put it all on red because it's going red, red, red all the time. >> we have to go but even evan i'm sure you would say you'd rather have a market that differentiates as opposed to setting everything green while the fed issizing. >> the market has been margely manipulated by the fed so you basically do have a manipulated market in the sense that the price of money is false right now. there's no real price of currency. >> i did just hear an exasperated sigh from david sowerby? >> you did. >> or ron. i'm sorry. >> when the fed is raising interest rates and slowing the economy down and cooling off inflation, that is also a manipulation. for some reason that seems to be more acceptable than a fed that is fighting deflation -- >> ron, the fed just bought several trillion dollars worth of bonds. >> i know what the fed did. >> the fed has done something unusual in history. the ecb -- you think -- >> paul volcker did something unusual in history. >> you think the german bund yielding 7 basis -- >> 27 basis points. >> you have to go but inflation will be a problem. we're running wage costs now better than 4%. >> all right. >> watch out for inflation in years to come. >> we'll have a part two coming up. >> watch for deflation. >> ron, david sowerby, thank you, gentlemen. we have more on oracle's earnings report with josh lipton. what can you tell us josh? >> kelly, it might be unusual in an earnings release for a company to directly call out a rival but that is exactly what oracle's larry ellisson does here saying we're well on our way to selling over $1 billion of new software as a service and platform as a service business in 2015. ellison goes on to say sales force has announced it also expects to add $1 billion of new business in these areas this year. so it's going to be a close race who sells more in the cloud this year. us or them. stay tuned, ellison says. benioff in his last earnings call called out oracle's cloud business saying listen it's easy to boast about an impressive growth rate when you start from zero benioff said. so the smackdown between these two continues. >> dr. j? >> you're exactly right, josh. and i would look for this to escalate to not just be, you know, a shot here and a shot there. clearly he got under ellison's skin and ellison and herd are going to go right after benioff. >> are you betting on either one of the names. >> not that mark is not big enough to fight but i wouldn't bet against herd and he willellison. >> we have mayweather/pacquiao and oracle and sales force. big bouts that are coming up. >> thanks everybody. >> thank you josh keeping an eye on everything. it has been said imitation is the highest form of flattery but should netflix and amazon be flattered or worried about apple's upcoming web tv service. and baby boomers pay close attention and beware of the boomerang kids. your adult kids coming back to live at home are potentially derailing your retirement. find out how to get it back on track on "the closing bell." you total your brand new car. nobody's hurt,but there will still be pain. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do, drive three-quarters of a car? now if you had a liberty mutual new car replacement, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels. smart. new car replacement is just one of the features that come standard with a base liberty mutual policy. and for drivers with accident forgivness,rates won't go up due to your first accident. learn more by calling switch to liberty mutual and you can save up to $423. for a free quote today,call liberty mutual insurance at see car insurance in a whole new light. find out how to get it back on liberty mutual insurance. you can find a new frontier. there's nothing stopping you and a lot helping you. technology that's with you always. this is our promise. it's never been better to wander because wherever you go, you'll find us doing everything we can, so you can. track on "the closing bell." can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? ♪ ♪ can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing? ♪ ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ ♪ the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is can your business deliver? welcome back. apple announcing plans to launch a web tv service in the fall reportedly including a small bundle of tv networks with 25 channels and available on apple products like the apple tv. it would not include nbc because of a dispute between apple and comcast when a prior deal fell apart. is it a game changer by apple or a cable copycat since bundling channels is what we already have. joining us now is scott, founder of keeper.com. scott, great to have you with us. what's your reaction to this news? >> i think it's a big deal. programming has been unshackled since satellite. in the early days of cable, all the programming was on cable but when satellite came the cable programmers were happy to get wider distribution. that's just logical in business to distribute my products more fully, so apple will get the product and they have something no one else has and that's a complete suite of display and control technology right to the watch which i'll use to set my dvr to watching on an iphone or ipad. so i think apple has a big advantage over everybody else. >> it's interesting, scott, that the advantage has to do with what you just named. in other words, the accessibility, the features of the product where the underlying streaming content is a step back isn't it? >> programming while it's special on every network, it's kind of a commodity and every one of those programs or networks wants to get the widest audience it can and apple as a new player if you take a look at whether it's the glowingle legoogle chrome stick for former apple tv linear television is just one part of it. if you have linear television you also have the piece parts. hulu is the piece parts. netflix is the piece parts. amazon the same thing. an aggregator like an apple or comcast or time warner of the current day or the past has those piece parts and apple will aggregate amazon and netflix and everybody but the comcast properties which i think is more of a strategic issue than a falling out. >> scott, it's carol roth. i want to ask you about apple's strategy in launching this as a bundle versus a la carte. from a consumer standpoint, the thing they don't like about cable is the concept of the bundle. they like the concept at least in theory of a la carte until they see the pricing of on that. what do you think the strategy was behind apple deciding to start with the bundle instead of going with an a la carte menu? >> bundle is what we know. it's what we've had for the 40 years of cable television. you can have a bundle and it's easy to unbundle. if you have the 25 channels and then say these five and these five and i think it's just the beginning because the consumer wants what they do which is sometimes a bundle sometimes a subbundle. sometimes the individual shows. and i think apple has that ability. obviously in itunes they give you the individual show. i think we're going to see them run the entire continuum and that's the best way to go because it gives the consumer the choice. >> scott, it's evan newmark. i have a quick question. what about the way people today, particularly by 16-year-old son and by 18-year-old daughter watch cable tv. talk a little bit about the fundamental shift in viewing habits and why, frankly, it's hard for me to see a bubble tenndle ten years from now existing anywhere. am i underselling that? >> i think we see bundles in other properties. we buy the entire "new york times" even though we may only want the science section. but i think you're right. i think once you have a bundle you can get the subparts and i think you're right. cablevision, chuck dolan who is one of the great inventors in the cable business was pretty serious about unbundling some time ago and the consumer would like to do that but the problem of an unbundle is i then buy one, two, three, four five it's bigger decision making and maybe cuts into margins a little bit because some of the off channels that i didn't get that i might actually like to watch become unavailable. so it's tougher to market. bundles are more interesting. it's interesting i started pay per view at the very beginning for better or worse, i'm the father of pay per view. we learned subscription was an easier decision. i get it and i'm done. the one off makes it easier and the consumer may like it but it makes it easier for the consumer actually not to make the purchase. >> sure. >> i think what we'll see is we'll see all of it in the future. >> we got to go scott, but there are some technologies like fast forwarding shall rewinding, dv r capabilities, would those ultimately have to be concluded. that was my allusion to a step back. >> i think that consumer control is a given as we go forward. apple is a super smart company. the consumer wants to forward through commercials whether we in the industry like it or not. they're going to want to do what they want to do, and apple is quite good at giving the consumer what they want. >> exactly. well put. thanks, scott. good to see you. >> nice to see you. >> founder of keeper.com and pay per view. let's send it over to sue herera. >> here is what's happening this hour. there is a report citigroup and barclays are close to a settlement with private investors who say those banks manipulated foreign exchange rates. "the wall street journal" says the two banks are expected to pay as much as $800 million in the settlement. jpmorgan chase and ubs have both already settled the same suit pay being $235 million. facebook adding a new feature allowing users to send money to each other. users can link a visa or a mastercard debit card to their messenger account and send money with the tap of a finger. premera blue cross says it's been the target of a cyber attack. they discovered the breach in january. they've been working with the fbi but so far have not been able to determine if any data was removed. but information from more than 11 million customers may have been accessed. and ts the ultimate experience for one lucky berkshire hathaway shareholder. airbnb is holding a contest to stay in warren buffett's childhood home in omaha during the meeting. entrants must be shareholder and are asked to answer four questions about their travel experiences. buffett's family moved into the home in 1936 but they don't loanown it today. >> thanks invest sue. >> that's a little creepy. >> a little bit. the ghost of warren. >> somebody 20 years from now, they're going to try to sleep in your -- >> the evan newmark childhood home. >> are the banks hoping for an interest rate hike sooner thaern later? john shrewsberry will tell us when he thinks it will happen. people all around the world are celebrating st. paddy's day. but this holiday is a pot of gold for one profession in particular and it's not bar owners. find out which one coming up. welcome back. my next guest is the cfo of the biggest residential auto lender, the -- joining me is johns shrewsberry. welcome to post nine. >> thanks for having me. >> a sigh of relief after the stress test? >> not so much relief we got the result we kpted and we're happy to have it concluded. >> financials used to be the biggest dividend payers in the market. we've been talking about dividends and investors are desperate for income and what can you tell us about your plan to raise your dividend and increase your share buyback. >> we announced the dividend 37.5 cents per share. the way the stress test works, it puts a limit, a practical hard limit on how much of return to shareholders can be in dividend form and the balance has to be in share repurchase. we're up against the higher end of the limit. we've signaled to investors we intend to distribute between 50% and 70% of our net income with the combination of dividends and share repurchase so we're at the head of the pack. we're a big capital generator, and we have a lot to distribute and we have been rewarding shareholder nicely. >> how much can you grow that net income the longer interest rates stay where they are? >> with rates at this level we've done a nice job at keeping net income at a high level. if it stays here we have to work harder on noninterest income. we have to work harder on growing the size of the balance sheet in a prudent way. and we have to be careful about expenses. so we've got work streams in place in each of those areas to continue to deliver the same types of results. >> and the way to do that i would imagine talking about the noninterest expense part other ways you grow the balance sheet and generate the income mortgage products, auto loans, but we know the demand has been a little rocky to start off 2015. at least on a top level. what can you tell us about some of the trends you're seeing? >> the pipelines actually feel really good. we finished last year very strong in loan growth but in the various consumer categories that you mentioned as well as in various commercial categories, people are busy. customers are engaged, and it feels like it might be a really good year. >> really? is that the case for companies or is it more of a retail recovery? >> i would say both. we had a first quarter small business survey with gallup that's the highest levels of engagement that it's yielded sings precrisis or about the turn of the crisis. and with larger borrowers, there's plenty of borrowing going on. there's m&a activity. and our pipelines look really good. >> is the stronger u.s. dollar -- because your jaw must be dropping as much as anybody watching the moves. is that a head wind for you guys? >> it's a headwind for big exporters who do a disproportionate amount of business with trade partners who have a cheaper currency. it doesn't show up in our business as much as it might in some others. in the u.s. our biggest trade partners are canada and mexico. those currency relationships are a little bit different. so hasn't been a headwind yet. it should be overall for this year's total gdp. exports are at 15% or so. but for our retail customers, it feels like more purchasing power i think, the things they're buying are father unaffected or are less expensive. >> when you say it's going to be a very good year it stands in stark contrast to some of the top level data we're seeing. is that because you're finding better ways to execute or is it a demand-driven trend you're talking about? >> jobs haven't looked this good in a long time so that trend is one that really has an impact on wells fargo because we have so many retail customers. while gdp is probably going to put a lackluster number up in the first quarter, there's been a lot of weather and other things people attribute it to we're still in the 3% range for the year which isn't anything to get excited about but it's moving in the right direction. and so as i mentioned, the traction that we have and the businesses we're involved with the customer groups we're engaged with look actually pretty good. one contrast i would say is the energy business though where there's going to be less going on this year because of the price of crude. so while that's probably a net benefit for u.s. businesses and consumers over some period of time as energy costs are lower, if you're in the business or in the geography that's highly levered to those outcomes then that's probably going the other way. >> final quick question because you are on the withest coast and close to a lot of silicon valley or california names that have been outperforming, innovating their way through this recovery can you talk to us about some of the overvaluation concerns that have come up time to time in the private markets. any concerns about froth out there? >> well not in the same way that you might have felt it around '99, 2000 2001. there are companies that are generating revenue. they have real disruptive business cases. sop some of them make net income which is exciting and many of them are good partners and clishts of ours and they have been able to raise alove the equity. from a banking perspective, even though there may be some risk in the business model, they're not borrowers of money. they are people who have got -- who are betting owe an big outcome and we'll see how that works. >> and different this time at least in that regard. >> so far. >> thank you so much for being here. john shrewsberry, thec fo of wells fargo this afternoon. oh how things have changed. it used to be a boomerang in your retirement years meant throwing a toy on the beach. now it means your retirement savings could be at risk. also today st. patrick's day but it's tomorrow that's actually the favorite day of dentists across america. no blarney. we'll tell you why next. welcome back. we begin with the market flash on oil inventoryiesnventories. dominic chu, what can you tell us? >> this is the american petroleum institute on oil inventories in the u.s. this is a trade organization that rents the oil and gas business. wti crude, u.s. crude, is down 2.5%, $42.75 a barrel. that's because according to the american petroleum institute, crude oil inventories showed a build of 10.5 million barrels. on average analysts polled by street account were looking for a consensus of 3.1 million barrels. so at best we can tell right now based on analysts' estimates, we are seeing a more than triple build in terms of crude inventories overall and kind of scanning over what's happening with crude oil prices, they have taken a leg lower in trading so far. also inventories in cushing, oklahoma, it looks like a build of 3 million barrels. it would appear to be a bearish indicator and we have moved down 2.5% for the crude oil trade. back over to you. >> wow, dom, thank you. $42.72 is where wti is as he just referenced for penal listening in. we're less than $3 away from oil having a three handle. we'll see if there are any production cuts that could offset that. baby boomers listen up. sharon epperson explains why boomerang kids can come back to bite pu. >> many baby boomers who are caring for their kids financially, they need to start caring for themselves. findings from a new study from the market research firm hearts and wallets show about one-third of boomers provide financial support to someone, their children, other family members, and about 17% of boomers are supporting adult children. that's about 8 million boomer households controlling nearly $4 trillion in assets. the big issue is the timing. the study found the boomers are providing this financial assistance late in their careers during prime earning years when they have the ability to add extra ccs to their 401(k)s and iras and when their focus should be on boosting their retirement savings but many of them can't afford to do it. >> sharon still thinking about the phrase adult children, carol. >> this is not good for anyone. if you have kids the best thing you can give them is independence. it really drives me crazy that we have this sort of generation of parents -- >> would you turn a kid away who came back at 24? >> not necessarily turn them away but set some boundaries. what you have to do is not protect them from every adversity and give them everything. you have to teach them to get through the adversity and we're getting an entire generation of people who are entitled who don't know what to do in the bad times. that's not good for the parents -- >> carol, that's a great point. i think spelling out the expectations that you have for the child, even if they have to come home because they're unemployed, they really can't get off on their own, they really need some help you need to set out the expectations. what are they going to pay for what are you going to pay for, a time frame and then also help them create a financial plan because part of the problem is the parents don't have a financial plan so how can they expect their children to have one? so everyone needs to get together and get that started. >> all right. sharon has much more info on that as well. protect yourselves. thank you very much, sharon. sharon epperson at hq. more than 10% of all homes in the usa are under water. we'll have details on it next. and tomorrow the cleanup after st. patrick's celebrations will still be going on and especially at the dentist office. we'll explain why coming up. welcome back. what is holding back the housing market. this story has been burning up cnbc.com all day. and here's alan mosler with the big reveal. >> diana olick's piece has been kicking it all day long basically taking a look at the latest numbers from core logic, negative equity, underwater houses, 5.4 million of them. that's where you owe more on the house than what you can sell it for. and that adds up to about 10% of the market. a retarding force on real estate going forward. people have been eating up that one. they've also been checking out the story we have about up in seattle, remember they voted in their own little minimum wage up to 11 bucks. it takes effect in april. a group of franchisees sued today, saying hey, wait a minute, you're lumping us in with all the big boys. we're just small business operators and why should we have to do the minimum wage as well. of course, the city council has said, no you're running a mcdonald's, a subway so you're actually kind of a big business anyway. so people have been eating that one up too. and finally, chris borland, the san francisco 49er linebacker, how much he's leaving on the table? about 2 million bucks if you get the signing bonus that might get clawed back. and future revenue, another $5 million above that. but he figures his health is worth it so god bless him. >> that's been all the talk around these parts as well today. thank you, alan. good to see you. it's st. patrick's day and if you think bars make a lot of money today, you're probably right, but it's actually dentists that really cash in and that happens tomorrow. we'll explain why when we come right back. never clear. but at t. rowe price we can help guide your retirement savings. our experience is one reason 100% of our retirement funds beat their 10-year lipper averages. so wherever your long-term goals take you we can help you feel confident. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. welcome back. probably as we speak, americans are packing their local bars to celebrate st. patrick's day. but many of them will also be packing their dentist's office tomorrow. cnbc.com senior editor at large eric chemy has the incredible numbers behind this one. welcome. >> thank you. >> so what's going on with the dentists? the hangover effect? is that what we're calling it? >> knocked out teeth, punches to the face whatever effect you want to call it 64%, that's the increase across the country going back at least six years. the day after st. patrick's day is always a big day for emergency visits to the dentists. it's always in the top ten for the whole year. it competes with things like halloween, where people are cracking their teeth on some hard candy that they haven't tested out first. but tomorrow's going to be a big one. you could be looking at an extra $1,000 per dentist across the country. there's 100,000 dentists in the country, so that's $100 million in revenue from teeth getting knocked out, for just tomorrow! basically, tonight, really. >> so some of it's intentional teeth getting knocked out. some of it's just people falling and slipping down. >> i've already come up with a disruptive business model around this and calling it triple d. it's doctors, dentists, and drunks and it's going to be an uber to bring the people to the dentist for st. patrick's day. >> oh, transportation. >> right, you just get the shuttle, you bring the -- >> shared ride. because you're all going to the same place. >> so when you fall down you can get it right there on demand. >> are you sold evan? >> i'm not getting in on this entire subject matter. this may be my last time -- if i make a comment during this -- by the way, i lived in moscow for a few years, and let me tell you, the public drunkenness is a specialty in moscow. but dental work is not. so if you fall down and have a tooth knocked out, you're living with it. so there's consequences to being a russian irishman. >> based on eric's great work and congratulations, eric, i would say x-ray and align. these are two stocks that are actually, yeah they basically help straighten out your teeth. and i would buy those -- >> my start-up though. >> we should have bought them five years ago. >> if you look at some of these states. remember, this is a men-only issue. the men are up 64%, the women are down 6%. except in texas, the women go up in texas by 39%. but some of these states are up more than 100% like delaware and maryland. >> i know where i'm celebrating next st. patrick's day, that's in texas. "fast money" coming up and thanks to everybody on the panel today as well. don't have too much fun tonight. "fast money" is coming up in a few moments. melissa lee, what's on tap? >> did you fill out your bracket, kelly, for march madness? was that a question? i'm sorry, there's a lot of voices in my head. >> i don't even know where to go with that. i said did you fill out your bracket for march madness? >> i did, i did uva, baby. >> well we have march madness here on "fast money." "fast money" madness. sweet 16. tonight will be the matchup, intel versus qualcomm. >> i saw this. sullivan was saying it's going to be facebook. i feel good about that pick. straight over to you guys. >> thanks kel. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. our traders are here. alibaba getting a little boost after an analyst upgrade today. we have three more ipos that my deserve a second chance coming up. and the ultimate stock competition. it starts today. round one of the "fast money" madness challenge. tonight, it is intel versus qualcomm. which one is a better buy? the trade is on the way in and so can you. so start casting your vote now on twitter. we start off with tomorrow's big

Related Keywords

New York , United States , Moscow , Moskva , Russia , Canada , Japan , Dubai , Dubayy , United Arab Emirates , Germany , Texas , Delaware , California , Washington , District Of Columbia , San Francisco , Beltsville , Maryland , Mexico , Oklahoma , Arizona , Ireland , Dallas , Chicago , Illinois , Americans , America , German , Russian , Japanese , Irish , American , Carol Roth , Dominic Chu , Stifel Nicolaus , Richard Branson , Sharon Epperson , Evan Newmark , Warren Buffett , Jeff Gundlach , Jim Cramer , Dan Morgan , Julia Boorstin , John Whitehead , Richard Weiss , Jon Najarian , Janet Yellen , David Marcus , Joe Scott , Tim Clark , Kelly Evans , Josh Lipton , Rick Santelli , Mayweather Pacquiao , Dan Mcmahon , Rick David , Doug Parker , Chuck Dolan , Larry Mcdonald , Phil Lebeau , Melissa Lee , Brian Sullivan , Sauer Russ , Chris Borland ,