Today will be the tiebreaker at least but it just tells you a lot about the month. Its been up its been down. In fact an even number of times. But whats also interesting, lets all remember this is the day before the fed announcement and usually you get a very quiet day ahead of that and youre getting anything but right now. Triggers arent taking a stand either up or down ahead of the fed meeting. Final hour of trade begins with the dow down 129 points after a strong session yesterday. Interestingly, its not like yesterday where all the indexes were up by about the same amount. The dow is giving up almost 0. 75 . The s p doing better only off 6 points. A third of a percent. And the nasdaq did turn green on the session. Its up by almost 7 points to 4,936. Some interesting moves. Lets see what oil has been doing as well. Down another 73 cents or 1. 6 . Were sitting near sixyear lows for the price of oil, and i happen to know also that the price of gold has been very volatile in todays trade as well. So all kinds of cross currents going on. Lets talk about it in our closing bell exchange. Our guests include rob morgan. Weve got david kudla from mainstay capital management. Richard weiss from American Century investments, and our own Rick Santelli joining us as well from chicago. David, youve already shown your hand. You tweeted out a little while ago and got a big response to it, youre cautious on the u. S. Market right now. Why . Well if we look at the environment were in right now, were headed towards an earnings trough. Current consensus estimates for s p 500 earnings down 5 for the First Quarter, revenue down 3 . We have an imminent fed rate coming sometime this year most likely. We have a strong dollar thats affecting corporate earnings for exporters, multinational conglomerates and weve gone 43 months without as much as a 10 correction. Now, theres some who will argue october intraday we were almost there, but decides that 43 months without a 10 correction. So we just think with the opportunities overseas the opportunities and alternatives in some other areas, its time to be cautious on u. S. Stock that is have done so well for us. Rob, david brings up europe. The flows we have seen into europe have been extraordinary. A lot of people trying to dig through it, say is it too much . Has there been a built of a melt up now that german stocks are at a new record . Would you still recommend people buy europe or do u. S. Markets still look attractive to you . Well i would agree with david, kelly that from the standpoint of the big cap multinationals with the dollar going up you definitely want to underweight those, but i think small cap u. S. Stocks still look pretty attractive. Theyre not really expensive here. And i think its probably time to actually lighten up maybe on european stocks and International Stocks in general. Did you say small caps sorry, i want to be clear. You said small caps in the u. S. Are not expensive . Well they always are at a premium to u. S. Big cap stocks but i dont think that that premium is unnecessarily wide right now. Lets put it that way. All right. Richard, so david cud la is cautious on the u. S. Market youre not by any means. Youre still hanging in there on that long bull market right . Thats right. Weve been overweight in u. S. Equities and Global Equities for some time now, and we remain that way. Now, were making some shifts regionally, but weve our Asset Allocation funds have gotten the best of the u. S. Market. Were domestically biased but we still sees the the glass as half full. The u. S. Has the strongest real Economic Growth of the developed economies, and thats not likely to change for at least another year or so. So were still bullish at the margin but just shifting around some of the regional exposures from the u. S. At the margin to europe. We still believe theres some more there and some opportunities there. Before we get to rick david, do you want to respond to that . So to be clear for the guests and bill and kelly, i still believe were in a longterm secular bull market. Were still positive on the u. S. In general, but for the reasons i stated earlier, we think theres some reasons to be cautious right now and with the opportunities overseas. I guess i would disagree with rob that europe i think is still attractive. I think the euro has further to fall as far as it has fallen but as far as its fallen there are those multinational conglomerates and exporters in europe that bill benefit from the weak euro. Europe is still undervalued compared to the u. S. We think through an etf thats hedged for dollar you can do very well. Theres opportunities and alternatives. Investors just need to look at their portfolio, look at their allocation allocation, look for diversification overseas because of the volatility were going to see in the u. S. Here. Okay. Oil is starting to look negatively correlated. Rick im wondering if the remarks about the super cycle are making the rounds . Oh yeah 1937 whoa fire and brimstone, its 37 again. Yeah, i have been reading it. What that tells me is maybe people are actually starting to believe normalization is a possibility. You know, we had exfed governor mark olson on earlier, and he thinks that definitely patience is going to come out and be replaced with something synonymous. Well have to wait and see. But theres little doubt in my mind that the subtle reprieve weve had, whether its the dax having a down day or the euro having yesterday as an up day and the subtle up day today is just strategically traders are taking a break because the hottest game in town is handicap handicapping the u. S. Central bank against the ecb, moving in different directions, affords lots of financial asset and paper opportunity but maybe not exactly what both economies really need as a prescription. Im just thinking of algos going through the that that sauer russ. Rob, so you would avoid large caps here . Are you fearful of multinationals and what the strong dollar is doing to them or what thats right, bill. Strong dollar is the theme, so underweight the big cap u. S. Multinationals overweight small cap. Underweight in General International but still like the cyclical u. S. Sectors like industrials and technology and were underweight some of the defensive sectors like utilities and materials. So do you think rates are going up sooner rather than later . Im probably at the sooner end of the spectrum. I think june. I think that the fed needs to get some ammunition before we get close to the next recession, and hopefully some of the fed governors that believe that are going to say that in the meeting over the next was that richard with the yes . No that was santelli. Ill tell you what were getting long in the tooth on this expansive business cycle. Normally they last 54 months. The fed is on borrowed time. I dont think theres any question were long in the tooth in the u. S. Recovery in this bull market which is our primary motivation to shift it over to europe which is arguably in the first legs of their recovery. If you look at it richard, hang on a second. Now im 100 confused. I thought you were arguing the u. S. Had the best Growth Prospects and we should go u. S. Over europe. At the margin were moving from u. S. To europe. We have been doing so start of this year and we continue to make that move. Were overweight in both cases but at the margin were shifting to europe. The better values are there. If you look in terms of real Economic Growth europe is likely to see acceleration next year over this year whereas the u. S. At best is going to be flat and maybe even slow down a bit. Youre not worried about the parabolic move in the german dax recently . Arent they getting a little ahead of themselves do you think . No, not at all. The markets are undervalued in europe relative to the u. S. No matter how you look at it. We have a bevy of metrics to do that. Low Interest Rates, no inflation. The opportunities are there. Look, if youre not early, youre too late. And so moving large amounts of money over you have to position yourself for the coming months not whats going to happen tomorrow. Rick what are people lets talk for a second here. We havent heard much about it. Its off about 5. 50 but is remarkably steady. Is that because the u. S. Moves to tighter policy while everybody else stays accommodative . I think thats the connection. Im always reading my emails, and today those questions you raised are teamed with did you see the big move in the hyg or the jnk . It moves down in junk volatility in gold. It makes perfect sense when the central bank is on the path we may learn more about tomorrow. David, what are you buying right now . Were buying europe. So what are you buying in europe . Hedj. It is focused on the large multinational the mega caps in europe that will benefit from a weak euro. And on richards comment, the key difference, and were talking about the u. S. And europe here the key difference is europe is now embarking on qe. We know qe inflates asset prices. The u. S. Is em barringbarking on a sol pi of tightening soon. That is a major difference between the u. S. Market and the market in europe. Got to go at this point. Thank you all for your thoughts today. Thanks, bill. Thanks everybody. 50 minutes to go. The market coming off the lows. 107, thats how much were off on the dow. Had a lot of triple digit swings so far in this month. Well see what happens as we head towards the close with the s p only off about 4 points now and the nasdaq moving further into positive terd up 11. Coming up the fed will wait until august to hike Interest Rates. The 10year yield note will be above 2. 5 by year end. Our Steve Liesman highlights the results of cnbcs latest wall Street Survey on the fed. You may be in for a few more surprises on that as well. Also ahead, tick tock on oracle and the earnings due out after the bell. There are the stocks moving today. Instant analysis from our team of pros. Oracle tough session. Oracle, theyre up. Two names that report after the close. Keep it right here. If youre running a business legalzoom has your back. Over the last 10 years weve helped one million Business Owners get started. Visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. A mixed day. Lets put it that way. The dow and s p are lower today but the nasdaq is higher and look at this. The s p of the ten sectors in the s p, technology is the lone gainer today with a gain of 1. 5 . Biggest decliner again second session in a row on two very different days overall is materials. Pointing that out. Strong dollar doesnt help that as well. We have a news alert. This is an interesting story on facebook. Dominic chu, tell bus it. Very interesting because now facebook will let you send money to your friends through its messenger app. Facebook has unleashed this new product where theyre going to allow the messenger app within facebook to allow you to send money to your facebook friends. Basically whats going to happen is theres going to be an icon or a button you can push that lets you take money from a debit card a visa or mastercard debit card you have on file with facebook and debit your bank account, send money to your friends. What facebook is trying to do here is go after pop money, all these other platforms for peertopeer payments, not just business to business or business to person but you can pay your friends with this kind of a system or platform. Now, remember, the interesting part is Julia Boorstin points out about this transaction is it was last year that facebook hired david marcus, who is the president of paypal to come run its messenger business. This perhaps not a surprise. The man who used to run paypal is bringing mobile payments peertopeer to the Facebook Messenger product. It all makes sense now. Looking at what alibaba has done with ali pay, this is a place to watch. Also a battle in the skies. Landing in washington three middle Eastern Airlines fending off xlints about delta, united american, that they receive unfair subsidies from their respective governments and thats tilting the competitive balance. Phil lebeau has that story for us. Phil . This surrounds the question of whether the growth of these Gulf Airlines whether or not they are in a sense breaking the protocol, the open skies agreement which basically has been set up so airlines internationally agree to certain standards and protocol. Here it is at the heart of the question, whether or not these three airlines as they have grown rapidly over the last five or six years, they now are serving a total of 11 cities. That rapid expansion, according to u. S. Airlines theyre receiving subsidies from their governments. Here is the ceo of American Airlines talking on squawk box about why he considers that unfair competition. What we found is solid evidence of over 40 billion in subsidies from those governments to the airlines to three airlines in those countries, and, you know, which allows them to provide service not at a profit, to provide service at a loss. Something were not allowed to do. Something we cant do and again, something we think should be remedied. Lets bring in tim clark who is the president of Emirates Airlines. He joins us from washington, d. C. Tim, you have heard this complaint a number of times. What do you say when you hear doug parker say you guys are getting illegal subsidyies . Well im afraid doug is unfortunately, very long in what hes saying. We will demonstrate unequivocally and very transparently the allegations that are being made about emirates with regard to subsidies and Everything Else are complete nonsense and we welcome now the opportunity to respond to the report which contained the allegations about subsidies to the various entities within the United States government and well do that shortly. Tim, youre already in nine cities in the u. S. Is this going to slow down your expansion at all . No i dont think so. We will continue as we have done providing excellent products connecting people in these cities to other parts of the world that we serve and the american carriers actually dont, providing high quality products at price points that people can afford. Were an affordable competitor which people value and im sure that we will be allowed to continue on that basis and, by the way, we will disprove the alleges allegations made against us and i hope we will receive an apology when we do. I know youre in washington to address this issue with members of congress or anybody else who will listen to you at this point, but let me ask you pointblank pointblank, do you and your fellow airlines there in the persian gulf receive subsidies from your governments . I speak as the manager of Emirates Airline in dubai and i can say categorically we do not receive subsidies from the government of dubai. After all, we have been in existence for 30 years. Weve been flying to the United States for 11 years, and we have done that in a very commercial manner. We are required to operate commercially by our shareholder at arms length of whatever they may do and produce cash positive results and create a very strong Balance Sheet. Do you operate profitably . We are about to declare in a matter of weeks some of the best profits we have had in the 38 years. We operate 84 flights a week. They operate at 84 and 86 seat factors. They are extremely profitable for us so to be accused of operating at a loss or dumping capacity is, im afraid, stuff and nonsense. Those accusations seem to be sticking more against the other two airways. What have you done differently to shore up your business . Well you know our business is a very robust one. Its a strong one. Our Business Model was designed in the late 80s. Its scaleability became immediately apparent to us as the world started to move at a pace beyond the mid 90s. The emerging markets started to produce business that the legacy carriers had not paid any attention to. We started eded collecting these cities that had never been seen before. We became a facilitator, an enabler, a connector on an international scale. Thats all we did and weve never lost money apart from the second six months of our existence, and we have multiple endorsements from the finance community worldwide. Our Financial Statements have been in the Public Domain since 1994. So weve had over 21 years of disclosures, and anybody who has any complaints about what we may be doing has ready access to those Financial Statements. Tim, real quick question to wrap things up here. When you look ahead over the next six months to a year where do you see jet fuel and by translation also crude oil, where do you see it trading at for the remainder of this year . A very good question. Im one of the believers there is further fall to come. I do not believe well see the correction yet. I believe that it will probably fall to in the lower 40s and then it will settle probably between 50 and 72 in the course of 2016. Much will depend on what happens to the dollar much will defend on what happens to the euro economies now that qe is kicking in. Were already seeing things happening there. The euro will fall a little bit further. Things will pick up in europe so by the Second Quarter sorry, the Third Quarter of 2016 i think you will see an altogether different picture both in europe and the u. S. And that will affect the price of oil, so probably by then well be up to 60s and 70s. Before we let you go i just need to button up my line of questioning here because doug parker is very specific about these subsidies he claims you and the other two airlines are receiving from your governments. Where do you think he got that number and are you here to say youre being unfairly lumped with the other two . Are they receiving subsidies where you are not receiving them . Im really not going to comment on the financial segments. Its for them to make their statements. My job is basically to present the facts as the