Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20141212 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20141212

Nasdaq lower, as well. Bill, snapping seven straight weeks of gains and heading for the second worst week of the entire year talking about the dow and s p. Back to january for the dow. Volatility the beginning of the year and end of the year. A coincidence . I think not. Seeing the vix itself, the volatility index is up 76 . This week. This week. Up another half a percent right now. Back above that 20 level which often signals augs for the market here. Maybe we could be topping out or bottoming out. Well see. Socalled fear index. Oil is focal point. The close below 58. First time we have seen that since 2009. Our Closing Bell Exchange this friday, mega green with us, jason pride, kenny pulcari, ken mahoney and next to him is bob pisani. And not next to him but in chicago is Rick Santelli. Yes. Whens next to you, rick . I dont know. Kenny p, put the market in perspective for us. You guys on the floor you trade stocks on, youre watching oil trading a few blocks away here. Arent you . You know what . Theres not everyone should understand theres not a sense of panic, not a sense of the oh my god this is the end at all. Theres pressure on the market for you. Oil is absolutely the story. The fed next week is going to be the story. Europe is the story. All these kind of, you know, conflicting stoirl that is are going around the world just giving everyone an opportunity to jump on board now that, you know, the oils really prompted it and then all the other stuff to pile on. It feels like the s p wants to test a 50day moving average and probably should. Where is that . 50day moving average on the s p could be 1999. Got to shake it out. Right . Shake it out in order to get rid of the weak links and then allow the market to once again begin to build. Meg green, you say volatility is great for you finding opportunity. Where are you finding that now . Well, first of all, we are getting an opportunity to pop back into some of the mlps that have been really hit. People are totally misunderstanding that. Second of all, its tax laws harvesting time. We havent had a lot of time to harvest the tax losses so you take this time with volatility and really on the yay boo scale. Some people are terrified of it. Wait. Reposition our portfolios. You know . Take some things off the table that are maybe a little high and put them in things needing to be bought again and rebalance. You tax harvest. And youre in good shape. It is our friend. Mlps, thats interesting. You are not terrified right now to go there given mastered limited partnerships. Getting sold off. But wait a minute. Explain. Theyre not understanding mlps. You dont necessarily want the index but in the mlps more about the toll booth than the price of oil and gas its like going through the lincoln tunnel. You care what price car youre going through . Mlps are beaten down. Not reasonably. In a lot of cases because its not about the price of oil and gas. We still need those pipelines so its an opportunity. Let me bring rick in here for a second because, you know, its not just oil goung doing, it is the yield on the 10year and just today minneapolis fed president lakoda say he says this low price of the oil makes the fed more dovish and less inclined to be raising rates any time soon. Do you i know who im asking, do you agree that maybe thats why the 10year is going where its going this week . Down 30some basis points. How convenient. Im in the frame of mind that i dont think theyll raise rates any time soon. I let it go in one ear and out the other. I think theres a general uncertainty of the bright thinkers, called the Federal Reserve open Market Committee that is not sure of the foundation of some of these pumped up inflated financial asets due to liquidity and the crude story is like weather retailer having a crummy quarter. It is just the place everybody wants to hang out. And i will tell you this. You know, maybe what sums up best everybodys just in a nervous environment. Last week the vix, and you said it. Up 70some percent. Whens the 70something percent . 12 last week. 20 today. When i look at that as an old options guy and basically option volatility, its the straddle. Its still really low thats why using percentages for low Interest Rates isnt a good idea. I dont think it expresses the truth. I think the chapter reminds me of that month from march to april in 2000 when we lost 1,800 paints on the nasdaq. The world didnt end. Listen. Whether its spreads and high yields or whether its the Nasdaq Companies like flowers. Come who have unbelievable valuations and no money, reality always hits. I wouldnt be afraid of it. Im certainly glad its happening and what i still consider a highly orderly environment considering every yield up there is still higher than the intraday low yields on october 15th. Thats true. Historical perspective is important. Ken mahoney, before you came on, we were just talking about how the theme and the strategy, correct strategy, is buy the dip. Is that what youre doing . To ricks point. The last couple of years we have had a kind of collective pavlovs dog sort to speak where the condition response. We see lower prices. We salivate like pavlovs dog and buy prices rewarded and until that doesnt work anymore, you know, were finding investors buying every dip. Challenges in 2015 we have learned this year coming in and thats the s p getting slashed in earnings because of the oil crisis that were having so but until we dont until were burned by buy the dip, that continues to work for some time. Jason, meg was talking about repositioning to take advantage of opportunities to present themselves here. I think you agree with that, dont you, right now . Where do you see opportunities cropping up as a result of whats happening the last few weeks here . You know, we agree with that broadly because, look, valuations are coming back down in. Investors need to realize that truthfully this year valuations propped up on the whole for a lot of assets. They werent extremely expensive but when treasuries are expensive, when equities are a little bit over the historical average and when you still have an economy inching along, its very easy for these disappointments to come back. In terms of repositioning, we think you have to be very selective. Were favoring very steady eddie high quality stable equities in the marketplace and nibbles abroad, as well. Theres Global Company that is are really good companies. Being thrown out with the bathwater here. Where are you going . Are you going maximum exposure. In europe or asia . Where are you nibbling . You know, anywhere that you get a globally exposed company thats thrown out just because of this economic weakness and concern of oil. Truthfully, getting interesting in some energy makes makes sense in here. Valuations are off 25 for the energy etf by itself. I dont think things are 25 different than they were just a few months ago so somewhere in here there are opportunities. I think it is stock specific. Hey, bob, you have been watching it whole week. What can you tell us about what you have learned between the relationship between oil and the stock market. Oil is down 40 . The s p 500 is down 2 this month. Oil down 40 . S p down 2 . What is wrong with that picture . Tells me the overall stock market not falling apart with energy down double digits. The vix is over 20 today. Very unusual for the cash to be above the options, the future prices and this tells you a shortterm panic going on. Gee, i have gains on the year. I have to buy protection. The downside is bigger than the upside in the 12 trading days left. Thats what we have here. A shortterm panic going on. Stock markets holding up very well. You see hang on a second. Kenny, well bring everybody back after the break. Can you stick around . Yeah, yeah. Im here. Okay. Well come back. Well bring everybody back here and see whats going on here. We have about 40 minutes to go in the session. The weak of the day and red arrows. Dow down almost 200 as we speak. 196. S p 500 is down about 16. Naz do nasdaq down 20. We are set for a weak lower in eight weeks. What you should be doing with your money in volatile times like these. Also ahead on this friday, oil below 60 a barrel. Just how low from here . Special report from the nymex on what the pros are thinking about right now and we want to know if you see oil going lower from here or higher. Whens the next stop . Is it 50 or below or 70 bucks or above . Talking about 40s. Yes. I have heard that. Our live unscientific poll is now open. Go to cnbc. Com vote and cast your vote. Theres a difference when you trade with fidelity. One you wont find anywhere else. Onesecond trade execution. Guaranteed. Did you see it . In one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. Do the other guys guarantee that . Didnt think so. Open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. To be a better investor. You dont need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. Because we do. Were exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job. Because boiling an egg. Isnt as simple as just boiling an egg. Life takes energy. Energy lives here. I have a cold with terrible chest congestion. Better take something. Theraflu severe cold doesnt treat chest congestion. Really . New alkaseltzer plus day powder rushes relief to your worst cold symptoms plus chest congestion. Oh, what a relief it is. Here we go welcome back. Show you how the markets are doing here if youre just joining us. Capping off what will be a tough week. Second worst week of the year for the major averages in the stock market. The worst week was in january when we started off on a down note if we all remember. We had looking at the worst day for the s p since november. Down 208. Industrial average. S ps down 18plus points and nasdaq down 25. Whats positive, you ask . Is anything positive . Yes we found a group. Of the ten s p sectors, consumer discretionaries are up today. In a down market. Lets bring the panel back in. Meg green, jason pride kenny pulcar ir, ken mahoney, bob pisani and Rick Santelli. Ken mahoney, lets not forget amid all the doom and gloom we got a good Consumer Confidence read number above 90 and better than economists were looking for today. Retail sales number better than expected and prices at the pump continue to down. Is this where you look for value in the storm . This is the correlation. People going to the gas pump and pumps not 4 a gallon but two something and kind of a gift and as if the consumers going the mailbox and finding a check. Very stimulative. You can corelate the prices and consumers feeling pretty good this holiday season. Retailers have made a comeback and Consumer Discretionary is up today. Look whats not doing well, not talking energy, consumer rather, material names so your duponts, freeport, dow chemicals are weak. Global industrials are week. This is the global slowdown story that existed sort of in parallel with the weak oil story and the reason the markets are having trouble an the consumer doing well. Kenny p, what are you looking at for opportunity . Are you ready to step in here . I think there are huge opportunities and moves create dislocation and names that should not be. Its very stock specific and i have to be honest, i think energy is a very, very interesting play. Whether its now, early next year. At some point, look at some of these names are up 30 , 40 . Worst performing stock in the dow now for the year is chevron. Okay. Chevron. And then ibm. Going out of business . Is this an opportunity . If youre a longterm asset manager, energys the place to pick but, kenny, thats a bold move as someone said its like catching a falling knife. So what you have to be prepared, no one says all in on one day and feed yourself in and in case theres more downside and not buying it all today. You feed it in but some point i mean i think these are huge opportunities. Meg, i mean, you mentioned the Master Limited partnerships. You want tax loss selling and into the new year where do you want to put some new money to work . You know, high yield corporates are smashed if you havent taken a look and thats oil relation to it. Right. Earlier in the year we came out of that and into munis. Up 17 year to date. Theyre up 8 and getting places where you get yield. Now you had the corporate that is are negative this year. Why not stick some money into the highyield corporates aenl get a 6 , 7 yield waiting for everything to come back. It is not an all or nothing. I agree with kenny. You have to dollar cost average in. Take your places. I mean, im a buyer of tesla at this point. Yeah. Thats what generally works. Buy low, sell high. Wait, wait. Slow down. I have to write that down. Go ahead. We havent heard that before. Its a new idea. Jason, given the fact that bob pisano mentioned a Global Growth slow down trade in effect and sees whats happening with the price of oil, whens that doing to s p earnings estimates next year . Do they come down because of energy . You know, they may come down a little bit because of energy but i think we have to i suspect this global both story is overlayed a little bit. The numbers broadly, we see gyrations here and there. But the numbers broadly still point to a Global Economic expansion and lets look at it. When you have the Central Banks involved the way they are. Theyre actually trying to push it the opposite direction. Youve got the u. S. Central bank moving towards more tighteninging basically pushing Interest Rates up and global Central Banks putting on more easing trying to balance out this ship. Not trying to pushl it the other direction. Good point. I think counterbalancing forces in play the next year. Think of the currency markets. Does a lot to the market. Thank you for mentioning that, bill. With that, to rick. People are worried about china here and blaming the chinese growth on demand but overnight the chinese stock market went up on the weak factory numbers. Its amazing what 65 billion will buy for you. Rick, what did you say . 65 billion, they did add stimulus and does matter but in the end start looking at these growth numbers. Theres many out there i think by 2017, you might be in the low 6 on chinese growth and when you think back to when they were at 10 and 11 , wasnt that many years ago. Right. Im sorry. I dont know who makes up that difference. Im interested to see about abe and the elections on sunday because if they look at this as, you know, lock and load, get out a couple more bazookas and makes more volatility. I dont know if they pick up ground. On university of michigan, the reason best level of early 07 is the reason trying to poke holes in and thats lower gas prices. Right. Theres a way to catch a falling knife. Catch it like that. Theres many Energy Companies that are going to be buying these leveraged small operations. I see many that have probably picked up over the years. The energy storys not over. It just went a little too fast, fueled by too much liquidity, the positives of that story are far from over. Right. Oh yeah. What were you going to say, kenny . Best way to play the market is a hybrid strategy. Two thirds to three quarters of the portfolio buy and hold and a quarter to a third of the portfolio be more nimble. Not like day trading but looking back at the dip this is year, january, april, october and we think this week, presents itself with kind of buy the dip, you know, attitude and combination of buy and hold and active and be prepared to buy the dips and sell the rip. Traders are coming to me on the floor and not including kenny pulcari and a seasonality thats strong seasonality for this market in december and theyre convinced maybe next week is better than this week. We have a fed meeting next week, as well. Thats true a lot of old saws and chestnuts didnt work very well the First Six Months of the year, you know, the sell in may go away didnt work and maybe december tradition wont work that well either. I think whats interesting and talk about buying on the bottoms is to take a look at oil has. Look at the commentary of last year of opec and the International Energy associat n association. Nobody talked about 50 oil but 100 to 80 oil. They have been wrong getting the demand side a little bit wrong. Dramatically wrong. They didnt project demand down like this. Maybe play it on the opposite side. I think i agree with everybody about energy. I think some of this selloff is really overdone and thats the way to start looking at 2015. Right. Kenny, opec is a big talking point with the price slide that we have seen in oil. How much pain do you think theyre willing to endure as they try to defend market share against u. S. Shale producers and why so many people are blaming this Oil Price Drop on opec . I hear you. Saudis are in the most control, right . Theyre youre right. Lowest cost. It depends i suppose on how far to pushl it. Look. They want to put some, inflict some pain, certainly, on some of the u. S. Shale producers because we are now very real competitor and they see it as a threat and a little bit of pain on us is not for them a big deal. So if they want to keep pushing more, thats what theyre going to do and some point then it becomes uneconomical for the shale producers and supply starts to dry up. Prices stabilize. Saudis are one of the few to let the price go down. Kenny p, what are you expecting in the last hour . Whats to key to watch . Watch as the market kind of i think sell off into the bell and has to test the 200 day, today or tomorrow, and thats where it finds some support. Watching 1999. Tomorrow is saturday. Watch it tomorrow, too. Hell watch it i mean monday, monday. You know what i meant. We know. Thats how he rolls. Thank you, everybody v. A great weekend. Appreciate it. Thank you. We are heading toward the close with about 35 minutes left in the session. Down 200plus points on the industrial average and we are going to keep an eye on that s p as kenny was talking about, 1999. 200day moving average. 17 points above it. Much more on this punishing week on wall street. What you need to be doing with your money if youre in the Energy Stocks, if youre in some of the other stocks right now. The dow down 200 points. More on what to expect in the week ahead. Also, we want the know how low you think oil can go from here or higher . Are we bottoming here . We want to know if you think its hitting 50 or below or 70 or above. So if it lower or higher from here . Cast your blalt in the live poll at cnbc. Com vote. Were coming back after this. Triple digit decline on th

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