Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140616

Here at this hour, by the way. We also have both covered with a live report from iraq and our pros weigh in on just what the fed may do this week. Also, a very special and exclusive interview after the bell, traveler ceo jay fishman in a rare oneonone. He is widely viewed as one of the most respected and effective ceos in the corporate world. Fishman will weigh in on the state of his business, the overall economy and much, much more. You dont want to miss it. All right, we cant wait. In the markets right now, take a look at the dow. It is down about nine points. The situation in iraq is certainly weighing heavily on the minds of investors today. The fed meeting, which is looming, which begins tomorrow, is as well. The nasdaq holding on to a gain of just under four points. And the s p 500, we can call that flat on the day. Joining our Closing Bell Exchange right now is rob stein of Astor Investment management, joe tanias, kim forrest of fort pitt capital group. Wow, i got that right, finally. Thanks. And our very own Rick Santelli from chicago. Kim, sorry about that. Its okay. On that note, kim, ill begin with you. Okay. Whats weighing more on the minds of investors today . Is it the developing situation in iraq or is it the fed meeting, which is looming . I think thats a tie. Im probably more looking at the fed and their decision about how theyre going to discuss whatever theyre going to discuss. Thats a big focus for us. But also, the iraqi situation is very important, especially to anybody that drives a car. Joe, what happens if argentina defaults on its debt . You know, i think its a problem, clearly, but i would say that whats going on in iraq right now is probably weighing on investors minds just a little bit more. We continue to watch, you know, the risk premium in oil, and weve talked about this in the past. If oil prices really do go through the roof, that can have a Significant Impact on economic growth, not only economic growth, but also on the capital markets. We have merrill out saying in the worstcase scenario, oil could jump 30 to 40 per barrel, thats if isis heads further south into the country. How likely is that scenario in your view to play out . Joe, sorry. Go ahead. Thats okay. Its difficult to tell how this is going to materialize as far as the situation on the ground in iraq, but it is something that we continue to monitor. I guess you have to ask yourself as an investor, is it likely that you end up with a sustainable increase, a rise in the price of oil . You know, i think we look at these opportunities and say its going to create volatility, its going to create some dips in the markets, but so long as the underlying fundamentals remain intact, those dips represent buying opportunities. Yeah, rob stein, your thoughts are pretty interesting on the market. What you say, the summer could be time to set it and forget it. Even with the unknown of whats going to develop in iraq, even with whats going on with the fed and what they may do . Yeah, well, i think the feds being pretty transparent. The imf came out and lowered Global Growth forecasts, but nothing too surprising. I dont think its going to impact the fed. As far as whats happening in iraq, were much more energyindependent now than when the drama there was heating up a few years ago. The economys doing okay, not great, but enough to not concern myself if theres some shortterm volatility that creates a speed bump, if you will. And so, we dont see anything looking overly exciting, either, where you would need to reshift your portfolio as well. So, its kind of boring, right . A little volatility but nothing that would derail the expected return for equities between now and the end of the year, end of the First Quarter, and nothing overly exciting to want you to change on the positive side, either. So, im kind of a boring guest today for you, scott. But no, but you echo the markets there, rob. In fact, weve had 40 sessions in a row now where the s p has failed a post of plus or minus 1 gain. I think thats via goldman, and thats the longest stretch since 1995. So, actually, what youre saying is pretty historically important, because if this trend continues, you know, were going to each successive day that we have this oasis of calm be in further uncharted waters. Yeah, its kind of a good thing, though. You know, i think at the end of the day, the fed, the treasury, they like to take the tails off. You know, they dont want down 30, they dont want up 30. They want to kind of bore us into this slumber of being able to focus on other things, and its kind of working. So, you know, at the end of the kay day, stick to your knitting. Mike, i just want to ask about the word complacency and what the fed might do on wednesday, because even as were discussing this, if you tie together the article from Jon Hilsenrath from the journal a couple weeks ago, more comments today from the imf, is it possible in your view that the fed will try to sort of wake up markets here . Should we be braced at all for some kind of event come wednesday . Oh, sorry. We dont have mike. Well, Rick Santelli, let me ask you, then. Well, to me, everything youve said thus far disputes all the conclusions youre trying fog come to. Weve had so many days with a lack of volatility after a 30 gain. Thats abnormal. And the markets are abnormal because we have abnormally low prices on capital because of Interest Rates. Complacency . Complacency cant be addressed by the fed. Complacency will leave with the fed. And in terms of iraq or the weather, i just dont see it. As a matter of fact, i see Interest Rates lets look at the s ps. Were what, 13, 15 points from our closing alltime high, and thats including the entire month of june, where iraq has crawled into it. Not saying it isnt important, but if you didnt know there was an iraq and you looked at stock prices or you looked at Interest Rates pretty much around the globe, you wouldnt think something was wrong. And if you look at crude oil, and we could argue about brent, but the crude oil contract gained what, a bit less than 4 throughout the entire iraq episode. To me, all of this says abnormal. The markets arent normal, i agree, but i think the reasons is where were going to have a dispute. So, mike balkin, whos finally with us from william blair, whats more on your mind these days . Is it the fed . Is it iraq . Is it Something Else . Well, you know what, i dont really focus on whats going on in iraq or over in russia and such, because i cant really control that. What were really focusing on is trying to find great Smallcap Companies out there in this low Interest Rate environment, easy credit and strong m a cycle. I think small caps are the place to be. You know, the old adage that size matters . Well, in this case, everybodys been talking about large cap. I think small caps where you want to be going into the end of the year. So, you think this correction that we saw in the russells over, then . I dont know if its over, necessarily, but i do think that we needed a little bit of a pause that refreshes here, and i think the valuations had gotten a little stretched. But im really excited about what i see from a lot of our companies into the back half of this year. And with the strong Earnings Growth coming out of small companies, thats where i want to be. Kim, were you trying to get in there . I am. Im very intrigued by Small Cap Companies myself, but im finding it really difficult to be able to buy them because theres just no liquidity. If you look at how much shares have traded, theyve just completely dried up, even as, you know, the prices have dropped. And that, to ricks point, is not the sign of a wellfunctioning market. If people were trying to get out of this, if the prices are decreasing, then liquidity should have been up, right . So, whats happening . And kim, what would you say about all this . How unusual is it in your experience for this little liquidity across the russell to be the case . Its very unusual, i think, especially, you know, where theres been such a change within the year about, with the prices. Wow. So, i just wanted to see if rick has some kind of thoughts on whats happening with the markets, specifically small cap. Mr. Santelli . I do as a matter of fact, ill tell you what, it isnt just certain sectors of certain types of stocks. Take a look at the cash markets of some of the biggest fixed income markets in the world. Look at italys cash market. Look at the japanese cash market. Sometimes the jgbs on the cash side dont trade until noon, and the italian cash market isnt trading in a liquid fashion either. The futures markets of all these fixed incomes are doing very good, but remember, fixed income, the cash versus futures trading card, we can create all the supply we want in the futures market. So, the answer is, is that the fed, by giving everybody a tailwind for free capital, has made a market that nobody wants to challenge. The longs dont want to get out of stocks. Why should they . So, i think you just have this unchallenged equilibrium in the markets that its going to take a fat tail to shake people loose to realize that central bankers will not be able to control this perfectly when normalizing Interest Rates begins to occur. Thank you, mr. Carney. So, joe, where do you want to be, then, to set yourself up for the second half, which were basically upon . Yeah, we are basically upon the second half, and i think, you know, everyones asking, whats that catalyst thats going to help move the markets a little bit higher . I suspect the back half of this years going to look very similar to what you saw in the first half of this year, meaning i dont think there is going to be that great catalyst thats going to help multiples expand. I think we are looking at a slow, yet bumpier ride ahead. I want to be focused on developed equities, and in particular, i want to be looking at some of the more cyclical areas of the markets, because i think that will unwind itself. Kim, one last question here, because you absolutely nailed it. The ft is out with a headline just in the last couple minutes, saying the Federal Reserve has discussed imposing exit fees on bond funds to avert a potential run by investors. Of course, moving ahead a little bit to think about what happens in a rising rate environment. But does this not speak to not only the issue that youve raised across stocks and that rick was just talking about in the bond market as well, but this very kind of talk could only exacerbate the situation from here . I think. I mean, a wellfunctioning market is a reacting market, and were not having that. As im only one of many Market Participants here, and what im looking for is some kind of return to normal where prices change with information and where the market moves with information. And i think we dont have that yet. That said, i still want to be a holder of equities, and i look every single day for mispriced securities, and thats my job. Rick, youll get the last word on this and what kelly was talking about. Well, ill tell you what, if youre not nervous about central banks, thinking theres going to be a tax or commission to get out of the position of the most liquid and revered fixed income Security Market in the world, that makes me much more nervous than i was five minutes ago. Do you expect that sort of thing to occur . I mean, if it gets this is corporate debt, not treasury debt. Oh, yes, its unintended consequences theyve created collateral shortages. They own boat loads of treasuries. They forced everybody into lessthanperfect securities and more risky positions. Now theyre worried about the world they created and how it will normalize. Theres no way any of this is smooth global Interest Rates are pretty weak, rick. Global growth and global Interest Rates are pretty weak. Im not sure Interest Rates are overly to keep low and theyre low on their own. Does that make any sense to you . You could argue that its a plus that the fed is thinking like that couldnt you, rick . Rather than being asleep at the switch, theyre thinking of all of the scenarios that could possibly take place within the markets. They cant think of all the scenarios. What youre describings called a free market. Free markets think all the scenarios, not janet yellen, ben bernanke, allen green span, draghi, they cant possibly, and theres no way theyll price it correctly on their decisions. Free markets need to price all the pieces, not bankers. All right, thats a good last word. Thanks so much. Thanks, everybody. Weve got about 45 minutes to go into the close now and the dows off about five points. The s p, though, has turned slightly positive. Its at 1,938 right here. Or is that 6 . 1,936. The nasdaq up about six. How would the potential collapse of iraq impact america . Michelle carusocabrera joins us live from iraq next. And later, travelers ceo speaks to me about insurers with better returns than the banks. What does that have to do with regulation . You wont see travelers ceo interviewed anywhere else today, so stick around. Plus, another glitch at target. This time, the retail giant blaming a systemic issue for delays at registers at some Stores Across the country. Well talk to target pros about what in the world is going on inside that company and if it can regain the trust of consumers. Fame, makes a man take things over fame, lets him loose, hard to swallow fame, puts you there where things are hollow the evolution of luxury continues. The next generation 2015 escalade. Fame in todays market, a lot can happen in a second. With fidelitys guaranteed onesecond trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 Market Centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. Its all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. Im derrick chan of fidelity investments. Our onesecond trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. 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Mmm, some alarm clock you turned out to be. Mattress discounters all right, welcome back. Theres the picture on the street right now. Excuse me. Its a rough one. 45 minutes to go today, and as you can see, stocks have struggled to get anything going really from the getgo, including my speaking abilities, but were powering through anyway. There are so many issues buffeting this market right now, though. And about 100 marines and army troops being deployed at the u. S. Embassy in baghdad today. Our Michelle Carusocabrera is in iraq and joins us now with the very latest live from the country. Michelle . Reporter hi, there, kelly. Yeah, thats one of several Key Developments happening in iraq today. First, yet another city in the northwest of the country falling to the insurgent islamic rebels. At the same time, however, they have not been able to overtake baghdad as they promised they would late last week. So, thats a little bit of good news for the iraqi army and the iraqi government. One of the reasons why the world is so focused on this region of the world and the battles going on here is because iraq is a major producer of oil. Its a member of opec, and the second largest producer of oil within opec, second only to saudi arabia. This year iraq was pumping as much as 3. 6 Million Barrels per day at one point. You can see from this chart that were showing you that it actually had finally started to recover from the war years. I want to show you this map. So far, when you look at the Oil Production in the country, its in the northeast of the country, in and near kurdistan, where i am, and also in the south of the country, an area near basra. All of the fighting, however, has occurred in the northwest, about 50 to 100 miles west of where i am right now. So, thus far, the vast majority of production and almost no exports have been disrupted. Ben lando, the founder and editor in chief of something called the iraq oil report. Its an online magazine, he knows quite a bit about the situation and believes that despite whats going on, production could actually increase in the south. He thinks iraq could hit 4 Million Barrels a day by the end of the year as long as the fighting doesnt reach down there. Thats because many of the Major Oil Companies have done massive investments down south, theyve spent a lot of money, and to get that back, they need to keep pumping oil. Final Major Development today, secretary of state john kerry not ruling out working with iran when it comes to fighting these rebels in the northwest of the country. Iran and the United States see them as a common enemy. Just a few weeks ago, it would have been inconceivable that we would be working with one of the United Statess longtime enemies, but kelly and scott, that just goes to show you how the situation in iraq has really turned geopolitics on its head. Back to you. Yeah. Michelle, any insight into where you think we may be heading here and what those on the ground are saying right now . Reporter the vast majority of analysts that weve talked to are deeply skeptical of the insurgents ability to get to the south. Ultimately, they think that Oil Production continues, maybe at a little less of a pace than weve seen before because some of the Oil Companies may remove some workers. But bottom line, their incentive is to keep pumping down there, and as long as the rebels dont get there, it should be fine. What is the longerterm issue is, do you keep putting money into the south . There was a time when they really thought 9 Million Barrels per day was possible coming out of iraq. Whether or not investment will keep flowing in light of the violence to make that impossible, pretty unclear at this point. So, im wondering, do you think people are starting to think about the real possibility, michelle, that iraq just completely falls, crumbles, whatever you want to say, and then what the repercussions look like on the other side of that . Reporter yes. I mean, we are at a point here in the United States where we are good mornibecoming more independent. That has to play into the equation in some respects. Reporter yeah, absolutely. I mean, it certainly gives the United States less of an incentive to get involved, but keep in mind, oil is spongeable, so ultimately, iraqi oil is critical to price stability or keeping prices lower. Predictions that iraq is falling apart before our eyes . I would say the majority of people i talk to think where i am right now, kurdistan becomes a separate state at some point and that, perhaps, the sunni and shia parts of iraq also split. There was a map in the paper today in one of the kurdish newspapers showing that, calling that the new iraq. Thats Wishful Thinking by the people in this part of iraq, who have long wanted their own country, but there are many predictions to that effect. Back to you. All right, michelle, great reporting. Thank you so much. Thats Michelle Carusocabrera live from kurdistan, in the evening there. Crude oil prices spiking as iraqi tensions have flared here. Jack Jackie Deangelis has more on how prices are affected. Thats exactly right. Certainly, weve seen prices spiking over the last few days, but whats interesting today is we actually saw west texas intermediate close down a penny, although we were a little higher with the branch price here. So, the markets leveling off a little bit as traders are taking a waitandsee approach, watching the situation in iraq very carefully. Lets go over those prices. Weve seen wti up 5 in the last month or so, trading just under 1. 07, a ninemonth high. And brent right now hovering around 113, about 3 in the same time period. What does this mean for gas prices, though . Thats the big question. What traders tell me is that if we do see more volatility and we do see more instability, you could see gas prices at the pump go up another 5 or 10 cents, and that is pretty significant, because we havent seen a big increase in this summer driving season so far. Actually, the National Average for a gallon of regular is about 3. 66. Pretty much in line with what we saw last year at this time. So, traders are saying theyre watching this very closely, but theres a few things to think about. Youre going to see gas prices go up a lot faster than they come down. And when people are spending more on gas, theyre certainly going to spend less on other things. So, this is going to have a broader impact on the rest of the economy. Guys, back to you. Jackie, thank you. Weve got about 40 minutes to go until the close here. Markets are slightly negative, at least for the Dow Jones Industrial average, now the spaep joinis p joining it, just turning negative. Still positive, but its a day where utilities are the outperformer. Hard to believe, kell, another target mess. Up next, well speak with the pros about whats going on at the retailer in the a tech glitch that had customers waiting and waiting and had twitter buzzing. Plus, who wouldnt want to pay lower taxes to uncle sam, if it were legal to do so . The 43 billion buyout of covidien allows a medical device maker to do that. Medtronics plans to take a legal address in taxfriendly ireland. Well have a special report coming up. Thank ythank you for defendiyour sacrifice. And thank you for your bravery. Thank you colonel. Thank you daddy. Military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa Auto Insurance can be one of them. If youre a current or former military member or their family, get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. My motheits delicious. Toffee in the world. So now weve turned her toffee into a business. My goal was to take an idea and make it happen. Im janet long and i formed my Toffee Company through legalzoom. I never really thought i would make money doing what i love. We created legalzoom to help people start their business and launch their dreams. Go to legalzoom. Com today and make your business dream a reality. At legalzoom. Com we put the law on your side. Welcome back. Target still trying to win back customers since a massive data breach last november and december that ultimately cost Gregg Steinhafel his job. Now theyre blaming a System Glitch for delays at registers at some of its stores this weekend. Courtney reagan, what in the worlds going on . Reporter i know, can you believe it . Another problem with credit cards for target. This time, target says it was a defect ain a Network Device responsible for a widespread outage that prevented customers from using credit or debit cards at Stores Across the country. Target is not giving us information as to what the defect was, who makes the device that had the issue. And while this has been resolved and the system has been restored, this is a video that shows what it was like at several california target locations during that outage on sunday night. The bigbox retailer says in some cases, the credit card Processing System was totally offline, and others, it was just very, very slow. It did take about four hours for the problem to be fixed. It was ultimately fixed at some point after midnight. Now, target isnt quantifying the number of stores that were affected, but we do know it was in at least five states. Now, this picture from twitter user taylor gowan shows long lines, and the twitter user says i keep shopping with you and your Computers Keep crashing failing. Then, i left the target checkout line, put all my items back, drove to walmart, bought the same items and it saved me some time. Now, target tells me that some of its locations that had problems issued store coupons. Others gave out some free starbucks drinks to keep guests happy while they worked through the glitch. Apparently, it was up to the stores discretion, but you can imagine, this certainly doesnt help targets brand image at this point. Kelly and scott, back to you. Courtney, thank you. Whats going on at target . Are shoppers bombarded with bad news about the retailer likely to look elsewhere as some of the tweets just indicated . With us now, Bert Flickinger from Strategic Research insight group. Bert, welcome. Nice to have you back on the show. Good to be back. How damaging ultimately do you think this will be for target in the wake of the other problem they had . Very damaging, scott and kelly. Targets lost a lot of consumer confidence. Customer counts were down almost 3 last year, over 5 in the fourth quarter. As Courtney Reagan referenced, californias the most important state in the company for target. The problems go from there to minneapolis, where the company has the effect of garrison keelar, a superiority leading to rudderless retailing and its going to be a long way bert, wait a second, shares are up almost 1 right now on the session. Kelly, ive been a shareholder for a long time. This stock should be its great to see it trading closer to 58, but this is a stock that should be closer to 80 to 85. Wow. So many management mistakes the last five to ten years, and its going to take a lot of corrective action. Dont you think getting a new ceo, when they eventually do that, one thats put into position for the long term, male or family, whoever it ends up being, is going to have a pretty good impact on where this company goes from here, that its too early to write the death of this story . Definitely not a death notice, scott, but it has to be a better search firm than the search firm that found the Board Members that iss, Institutional Shareholders Services voted against recommending at target. You need a strong ceo. Carol mire wits from tjx, Mickey Drexler from j. Crew, frank blake from home depot, a transformation ceo. Every one of the s p 500 wishes for one of those folks. Exactly. And quickly, im not suggesting the death of the company. Im simply saying, from a stock owner standpoint, you have to make a decision whether its a Good Opportunity to get into this name for longterm appeal. And some may say that with the hiring of a new ceo, that that could be the chance, that theyre going to throw everything, theyre going to kitchen sink everything, take the necessary charges they have to take, the mea culpas where they need to be taken, and then the future could look pretty bright. Future is definitely be bright, because no company has a better record for philanthropy and Community Goodwill in its first 110 years as target has, but as Courtney Reagan reported from the post that shes read, that customers are very dissatisfied. Theyve switched to kroger, costco and tjx, walgreens, a number of other competitors, in addition to retail competitors and it will take time to get them back. Typically, when the customers dissatisfied, it takes half a year to a year to get them back. But youre right, kitchen sinking this could be a value. Just a question. Some of the ceos you mentioned to, frank blake, the ceo of t. J. Ma maxx, for example, how expensive would these ceos be to hire . Youre talking youd have to throw, talk about a kitchen sink. I dont know what you could throw at them to get them to target right now, and would it be worth it from a shareholder perspective, or is it exactly what they ought to do . Home depot paid 235 million in total compensation to bob nardelli to see the stock just get eviscerated. The enterprise value under frank blake has been phenomenal. When Ben Cammarata brought her back to t. J. Maxx, same thing. Whatever the price is paid there, Mickey Drexler even buying j. Crew to beat out fast retailing in that e positiacq. Its worth it because target doesnt have the internal talent and theres a lack of great leaders out there, and those are just a few. Your points well taken, but look, jcpenney seems to be, i guess on the road to recovery. Its hard to tell, but certainly doing better than the company was. Best buy is doing better than it was. People like to lean on these things and then they turn out 6 to 12 months better than anyone expected theyd be. Scott, youre right. Definitely an opportunity, but in the last ten days, 28 retail and restaurant stocks have hit 52week lows. In the last month, a quarter, a total of 60 have hit 52week lows. So, retails having a tough time going into backtoschool in the second half because of higher taxes, Health Care Costs, declining disposable income. So, its going to be a good value, as youre referencing. It just depends on the timing. And just to be clear, you said youre a longterm shareholder. You own one share of target, right . One share, because as soon as they reported the computer glitch, i dumped the other shares within ten minutes. Wow. All right. One share. Is that even possible . How much did you dump . How much did you own . I dumped about 110 shares. All right. Thank you, bert. Thank you. Holding out hope with that one share. All right, we have a half an hour to go before the bell rings. Dows down 11. Really, the markets eyes are cast elsewhere today, on the fed in d. C. , which meets tomorrow. Absolutely. Twoday meeting, yellen with the News Conference on wednesday and then iraq and the developing uncertainty, really, that takes place there. Someone here saying the Federal Reserve may have to raise Interest Rates sooner rather than later to rein in the stock market and wall street. Yes, a controversial debate well have coming up. And while you were gearing up for fathers day weekend last friday, the Internal Revenue service said it lost emails to and from lois lerner because her email crashed. She is the key figure in the irs tea party controversy. She pleaded the fifth, as youll recall. But are emails ever really gone . Well speak with the pros to find for who lost date, we have the major league greek squad. Chocolate is very individual. White chocolate lovers dont like dark chocolate. Milk chocolate lovers dont necessarily like dark or white. Before we couldnt really allow the consumer to customize their preferred chocolate. We needed the scalable Cloud Solution allowing them to see all 800 products and select what they are looking for. Now there is endless opportunity to indulge. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Yeah. Everybody knows that. Did you know there is an oldest trick in the book . What . Trick number one. Lookest over there. Ha ha. Madeest thou look. So endeth the trick. Hey. Yes. Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you. Well, you know. Could help your business didavoid hours of delaynd test caused by slow internet from the phone company . Thats enough time to record a memo. Idea for sales giveaway. Return a call. Sign a contract. Pick a tie. Take a break with mr. Duck. Practice up for the business trip. Fly to florida. Win an award. Close a deal. Hire an intern. And still have time to spare. Check your speed. See how fast your internet can be. Switch now and add voice and tv for 34. 90. Comcast business. Built for business. All right, theres the picture on wall street, mixed one. The dows down about eight points. Stocks in the green though, today. Chevron hit a new high today. Home depot, mcdonalds, disney, cocacola are all in the green. And travelers, interestingly enough, was in the green. It is right now hugging the flat line, but you have an interview, a very rare one, i might add yes. With the ceo coming in the next hour of the closing bell, correct . And that company, if you want to talk about whats happened to financial firms, how theyve traded over the last decade . Even insurance at the top of the list, travelers. All right, maybe it was just a coincidence or maybe it was part of a late friday summer afternoon news dump from the Internal Revenue service. The news once again swirling around lois lerner, a central figure in the alleged irs targeting controversy. This time, emails being sought for the investigation are gone due to a 2011 computer crash. Eamon javers has the details. Reporter thats right, remember, lois lerner declined to testify on capitol hill, taking her fifth amendment rights, saying shes not going to offer any answers to questions that republican investigators want. So, thats why theyre anxious to see these emails and thats why theyre so frustrated with friday nights news from the irs that, in fact, the irs has lost emails from lois lerner from january of 2009 to april of 2011, citing a computer crash on her computer that she used at the irs. The irs is defending itself, saying its made unprecedented efforts to get information to congress. They say theyve produced over 750,000 pages of documents and 250 irs employees have been working more than 120,000 hours and the investigation internally has cost the irs nearly 10 million. All of that an effort, they say, to produce some of these emails and documents that the committee wants to see. Meanwhile, up on capitol hill, you can imagine republicans very, very skeptical here. Ways and Means Committee chairman dave camp said, because of this loss of documents, we are conveniently left to believe that lois lerner acted alone. Congressman darrell issa also said its awfully convenient that this email outage has happened right at this time. So, we might see some action up on capitol hill, guys, as republicans try to get an answer to just exactly what happened to lois lerners email, and is there any real way for the irs to recover some of those emails that have apparently gone missing, guys . Eamon, thank you. Lots of people on wall street and corporate america, by the way, are watching this story, wondering if emails are ever lost for good. Alex george is director of d. C. Operations at immunity, a Cyber Security firm that serves major fortune 500 companies. Alex, great to have you with us. My pleasure. First of all, does a computer crash mean that these emails are gone forever . Well, it can. I think one of the interesting things to look at with this story is if you look at the amount of emails that ms. Lerner sent over her time thats under question, were talking tens of thousands of emails. Having been an email administrator in a previous life, one of the things i can tell you is when you get a user that deals with that much email, you call them a power user, theyre constantly exceeding quotas, so one of the strategies for dealing with that is to configure their computer to pull that email down and store it locally so theyre not taking up space on the server. So, it is possible that ms. Lerner found herself in such a configuratio configuration. However, you have to say, when you do that, its always Standard Practice to insure that the computer that now has the only copy of those emails is properly and regularly backed up. So, on the surface, right, at face value, does this make sense to you or not . It doesnt. I think its possible but not plausible. Ms. Lerners status in the irs and her importance to that organization, seems to me that they wouldnt make a mistake like that. They wouldnt forget to, oh, gosh, i have to back up, we need to remember to back up her computer. Shes not someone thats working in the mail room. I dont find it a plausible explanation, but you cant rule out the possibility based on what we know now. If they havent turned up yet, i mean, how many more things can be tried before we know, you know, before you put the nail in the kof coffin and say, okay, its done, i mean, theres nothing we can do . Sure. All right, its sort of interesting. As they mention in the story, theyre able to recreate lots of her email by looking at the inboxes of other irs employees. And they say, the problem is, once they leave our system and go to places like treasury, the white house, other government agencies, theyre out of our control. Thats completely true. However, those same agencies are under the purview of congress, and congress has the power to say, all right, any emails you receive during this window from ms. Lerner, we want to see them as part of this investigation. So, i think theres still more to do. Alex, the last question that i have, actually, going back to a lot of the experiences people have had in corporate america, is that their difficulty is that these email traces follow them around. Is there nowhere on servers that these messages, even if theyre stored locally on her computer, bob able to would be able to be recovered or stored . Remember, youre talking about from 2009. I find it highly difficult to believe that these emails are not on a backup somewhere. Thats just good enterprise policy. You know, its difficult to say how the irs does business from an architecture standpoint, so its possible that, you know, emails, data from 2009 has been overwritten on a server. But you would think that they would have backups from that era that they could just pull from and then grab these emails. Like i said, it doesnt make a whole lot of sense, and it seems, frankly, just implausible that there is not a copy of them somewhere. Well, and thats coming from a guy whos know much more about it, certainly, than we do, alex. Really appreciate your perspective. Thank you. All right, we have about 20 minutes to go before the bell rings on this monday after fathers day, and the dow is in a holding pattern. Its been another one of these tight ranges for much, much, much of the day. It has. Well see if we can turn positive again as we head into the close here. That is the case for the s p and nasdaq, although slightly. Coming up, why dragons that disappoint could be a nightmare for dreamworks. Dreamworks animations how to train your dragon two opened up with a poor take. That isnt lighting a fire under the stock. The story when we come back. 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Just because the averages arent moving a lot doesnt mean certain stocks arent making big moves. And Mary Thompson is keeping an eye on the standouts here for us. Mary . Hey, kelly. Its m a monday on wall street. Four bigs to report on. Medtronic buying covidien for 49 billion and cash and stock. You can see covidien up 21 , medtronic down about 1. 1 . Network equipment maker tw tell clom was bought by level 3. Tw Telecom Trading at 39. 27. Level 3 up 1. 79. Sandisk is buying fusionio. The price tag 1. 1 billion in cash or 11. 25 a share. Fusion io trading at 11. 26. Sandisk also higher. Lastly, Williams Company paying almost 6 billion to buy 50 of the Energy Producer access midstream partners. Access midstream up 1. 75 and Williams Company up over 18 . Tesla is at session highs right now. The Financial Times saying its electric vehicles rivals nissan and bmw are in key talks with the company to talk about testing models. They are testing the crossover vehicle next year and shares are up bottom almost 9 . Nuance communications was surging earlier this afternoon. Dow jones reporting the company held talks with samsung and private equity firms about a possible sale. Nuance is behind a new Voice Recognition application that you can use to place your Dominos Pizza order. Our own domino, dominic chu will be trying out that app next hour on the closing bell. Nuance stock up over 9 . Scott, back to you. All right, mary. Thanks so much. We have about ten minutes to go before the stock market closes today. Its been in a tight range all day and were down just a couple points on the dow. After the bell, dont miss it, my exclusive interview with jay fishman, ceo of the travelers companies, which is the only property and casualty insurer in the Dow Jones Industrial average. A strong performance. He joins me next hour. Peace of mind is important when youre running a successful business. So we provide it services you can rely on. With centurylink as your trusted it partner, youll experience reliable uptime for the network and services you depend on. Multilayered Security Solutions keep your information safe, and secure. And responsive dedicated support meets your needs, and eases your mind. Centurylink. Your link to whats next. All right, welcome back. Were approaching the close here. Markets have been in somewhat of a holding pattern, watching iraq, watching the fed. The meeting tomorrow. Jordan waxman, hightower advisers, managing director, and anthony chan, chase chief economist. Great to see you guys. Jordan, whats the market fixated on more at this point, the fed or iraq . Well, i think half of its iraq and i think the other halfs not necessarily the fed but how much Equity Capital has been sucked out of the market through mergers, stock buybacks, equity tenders, merger activity at an alltime high. I think this is great for the market. And it shows you companies are looking for areas to grow. Anthony, how do you feel about things right now . I think if you give me those two choices, i would take iraq, and the reason for that is if you look back historically to the 1980s, every time on average, when you get a 28 spike in oil prices, you typically get a slowdown. And some of the slowdowns associated were recessions. I dont think well get that this time because i think weve got the Strategic Petroleum reserves and i think theres a possibility of a deal, but thats certainly a concern. The imf is pretty negative on growth here, then you have oil prices rising, gasoline prices rising. Its not like were going gangbusters here in the economy. It just means that this profit expansion could turn out to be one of the longest in history. The market climbs a wall of worry, and if you have more tepid growth, rather than the economy growing 3. 5 , maybe its more like 2 , that creates a very long profit expansion with low Interest Rates and low inflation. Stock prices should appreciate. Give me the imf number of 2 , still stronger than last year for the u. S. The wall of worry, unless you get to the top of the wall and youre like humpty dumpty, then you go overboard. Usually, markets get topee when bad news creates buying opportunities for people. They dont believe that the market can go down. I still think this is a very tepid market. The bulls and the bears are evenly matched. Yeah. Do you expect anything, anthony, from the fed this week . I think the Federal Reserve will continue to stay on target. If things were to unravel, i dont rule out the possibility of them slowing down the taper, but the situation in iraq or even other factors in the economy, not serious enough for the Federal Reserve to announce this week that theyre going to suspend the taper. Although you know, there has been a lot more pickup in talk about the economy, right . Goldman sachs saying for the First Time Since the crisis, youve got normalized growth rate returning, and then youve got the imf now leaning against that. I dont know where that leaves you. The imf number was revised down primarily because of the First Quarter. We all know the First Quarter was down minus 1 , but might end up being as much as minus 1. 6 . So, when you average the entire year, you get 2 , but thats still giving you 3 or better average for the next three calendar quarters, including this one. Thats not bad. And they were talking about abovetrend growth, just to be clear. Where do you want to be, jordan, then in the market . If youre optimistic on where we go, where do you go . Were in a late cycle. Industrials, sickcals, consumer staples. Its a slow growth, low Interest Rate environment. That tends to do well for blue chip stocks. Thanks. Good to see you. Good to see you, too. We are back with the closing countdown. After the bell, dont miss kellys exclusive interview with jay fishman, ceo of the travelers company. Dow component as well. Later in the show, it is dom versus dom. Dom chu taking on dominos, or at least its new pizza ordering app named dom. Were going to see just how long it takes and if the app works and if dom eats all the pizza he gets. In a world thats changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow quires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. 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[ indistinct shouting ] its so close to the options floor. [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ]. Youll bust your brain box. All on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. All right, were back on the floor for the New York Stock Exchange for the closing countdown. First, however, we want to go to scott cohen with breaking news regarding a General Motors recall. Scott . Yes, another recall, a big one, 3. 6 million vehicles being recalled for an issue very similar to the 2. 5 million vehicles, the chevy cobalts recalled over the ignition issue thats now famous. This is work that grew out of their investigation of that. Gm now recalling the following models buick lacrosses from 2005 to 2009, chevy impalas from 2006 to 2014, cadillac devilles from 2000 to 2005, cadillac dtss from 2004 to 2011, buick lucernes from 2006 to 2011, buick regal ls and gss in 2004 and 2005, and chevy monte carlos 2006 and 2008. As part of this, gm is increasing its charge. It had already announced a 400 million charge as a result of the recall issues. That now goes up to 700 million. You can see gms stock is still slightly higher on the day as this news comes out. Scott, back to you. Okay. Scott cohen, thank you so much for that. An additional 3. 6 million vehicles recalled by General Motors. Bob, as we take a look at the stock here, the only thing i can think of at this point, as the bad news continues to come out, lets just get it all out. Investors are taking the view that at least theyre just getting it all out there, and then you can start to rebuild from a credibility standpoint and from a stock standpoint. Lets bring up a longerterm chart than the intraday. The stock got hit obviously on the earlier announcements of it, but now that its had a little bit of a time, its stabilized a little bit more. In fact, the stock is trading up today. Im not saying this is good news at all. Certainly, it doesnt seem to ever end, but i think a lot of investors are getting the idea at this point that they might be able to get their hands around how big this is. Whats not clear is the liability issues. Thats been the major problem. You walk around the floor every day. You talk to the people down here. What are they thinking of iraq now . As long as oil is not going through the roof, the problem is earlier on, when we saw brant, not west texas, moving on the up side, the markets move down. If oil is calm, the markets are calm, and thats how theyre looking now. I dont think this is settled by any means. Far from it, probably. I want to point out, theres been enormous volume in a number of etfs today, energy, industrials, technology, health care, eight or nine times normal. Somebody is moving money into the stock market using etfs. Well, energy is a space that everybody keeps talking about, bob, especially for the second half. Good point, but tech, health care, industrials, big movements today. All right, thats the word from down here. Kelly evans has the second hour of the bell and the travelers ceo. Dont miss that. Thank you, scott, and welcome to the closing bell, everybody, its monday. Im kelly evans. The Dow Jones Industrial average, in fact, everybody just eking out a gain here, adding about five points. The nasdaq managing ten into the close about 0. 25 , the s p 500 adding just 1. 6 as things shake out. 1,937 is the level. Just to give you a sense of where we stand in markets after last week, were just shy of 200 points for the dow off the alltime closing high. Lets get right to it with todays panel. Joining me, cardiff garcia, cnbc contributor and Washington Post reporter elon wee and our own Kayla Tausche and. Com n dom chu along with fast money trader guy adamie. Great to see everybody. A lackluster session today. Waiting on the fed . Concerns . Lackluster. But i have to tell you, that spot with your father on friday. Ive got to tell you something, im a gruff guy, but that actually brought a tear to my eye. That was sweet. We are a gruff bunch. That was really something. Thank you. So, what is interesting to me is a continued move in these chips. The chips names continue to move to the up side. Look at micron today, intel, obviously. I think this nuance storys probably not being covered enough. I think theres a lot of value there. Its not a rich stock. Theres a big short interest. And i think after that disastrous quarter and announcement back in november, this stock flushed everybody out, and i think thats headed higher. And a continued strength in energy. I know you want to talk about m a as well, but those stuck out to me. Actually, energy and utilities battling right now for the sector leadership of the year. Dom, either one of those, though, kind of a late cycle, latestage leader, arent they . Well, whats interesting about the utilities trade is weve been talking about it for quite some time, but the other thing thats interesting is if you look at the energy trade, theres a point at which you dont maybe want to see Energy Leading the way higher for a bull run. Oftentimes, a lot of traders say if energy really is leading the way higher, eventually, those oil prices that are driving some of the energy stock trade surges are eventually going to become some kind of a headwind for the overall economy, so maybe theres a little bit of caution to be thrown into the mix here when youre talking about energy. But on the utilities side, there is still a demand for this and geopolitical risk in places like iraq of all places is going to contribute to that safety bid, and maybe thats why youre still seeing utilities as a big part of the picture. Kayla . Its also a move on the back of the Interest Rate play. Earlier in the year there was a selloff in utilities because the expectation was Interest Rates and yields would start rising, and utilities are some of the biggest borrowers, very sensitive to Interest Rates. So, when you see geopolitical conflicts that are affecting the market in this way, keeping tenyear treasuries below 2. 6, thats going to be a good play for sectors like utility. I wonder, do we talk about the extent to which higher oil and gas prices are already a factor for the u. S. Economy or do we have to have them spike more . I dont think were there yet. If theres one lesson from earlier in the year when the tensions between russia and ukraine took off, is we have to be careful not to overdramatize the extent to which even massive geopolitical stories are going to become big economy stories. I dont think were there yet. I think we have to be patient. Interesting point, and it comes again, today, even while the worlds attention to some extent is focused on whats happening in iraq. Gazprom has stopped supplies of natural gas to ukraine. Wisely, perhaps from their point of view, has kept them flowing to europe, so youre not seeing the immediate economic or market backlash that that could force their hand. Let me turn it around. If these stories arent really moving markets here, what how do we come to some sort of resolution . Well, i would like to point out that in terms of the cutting off of energy to ukraine, this has happened twice before and ukraine weathered it. It happened before in the dead of winter, when the country was less prepared for it. Some sense is this move is one that the country was able to prepare. They knew it was coming and they say they can last through december before they have to reach some sort of agreement with russia over energy prices. But obviously, i think that one of the things people are waiting for to happen this week is whats going to happen with the fed. Absolutely. You know, theres been a lot of speculation about what theyre going to say over the economic outlook, what theyre going to say about the first rate hike, future path of Interest Rates, but the truth of the matter is, the fed just doesnt know. Theyre throwing spaghetti against the wall moment right now, where theyre trying to so many fed officials are saying many Different Things about what the pace for purchases should be, what the first rate hike should be, what to do with reinvestments. And right now youre going to see them throwing different ideas out there and then trying to come to some sort of compromise. Its going to take them at least another six months before they can sort of see the segments coalesce into what the different angles will be able to come together and agree on. I just wonder if they try anything on wednesday with regard to waking up the markets, because again, to quote goldman on this, but i think its been 40 sessions in which the s p has failed to post a 1 move in either direction. Thats the longest stretch of calm, theyre saying, since 1995. Do you think against that backdrop, their view that the fed would do something here so we dont have kind of the late 90s moment all over again . Probably not on wednesday. I think on wednesday, the most you can expect from a policy standpoint is a change in the outlook and a change in the forecast, but there are an interesting set of countervaling forces exerring themselves in the fed right now. We have had four pretty good employment reports. Inflation has gone back and janet yellen believes there is more flack than being reflected and she inserted the language earlier in the year about rates staying low for a long time, even if we get back to consistent levels for inflation and unemployment. And the theories that were once con eject yours are becoming formalized by the academics, taken more seriously. Thats the kind of thing that would justify such a move. I think if youre going to watch for one thing, watch in the presser whether or not she fully, she more fully explains why she did that. Would you agree that, in other words, their concern would be more that they do something to cut off the recovery at this point as opposed to something that, you know, sends markets, Financial Assets another 10 , 15 higher . Yes, absolutely. I believe that the market column story relating to the fed has been a bit overblown. The fed has spent many months trying to make the markets calm after the temper tantrum of last year. So, this is to some extent a success of that, being able to pull out and phase out the Bond Buying Program without disrupting the markets. But the second point is that the fed is actually trying to push on both sides of the train. Theyre trying to sort of prep the markets and say, hey, the first rate hike is coming, in fact, it may come sooner than we thought if the Unemployment Rate drops faster than the fed expects. But at the same time, saying, but dont worry, you know, Interest Rates will not go as high, and theyll stay relatively low for a longer period of time. So, theyre in sort of a tricky balancing act here by trying to push on both sides. Guy, what do you think about that message come wednesday . But isnt that interesting that were even speaking about and i know weve been doing this for a couple years, its nothing new, but we speak about the fed and their concern about the markets to me. Markets, yep, yep. Thats got to trouble people. Im not saying its bullish, bearish, whatever, but that should not be their concern. The markets should do what theyre going to do. To have a conversation, its crazy. Let me put it this way, isnt it completely legitimate, in fact, necessary for them after the last couple of cycles to at least talk about markets from the point of view of are things becoming disconnected, has the move been too far, too fast . Interesting. You know, is the absence of more volatility a sign that there is complacency out there . I mean, that certainly is theres clearly complacency, but none of this should be, in my opinion, should be their concern. The fact that it has become a concern should be disconcerning to people because maybe theyre taking their eye off the ball where it should be. The markets im in my Rick Santelli moment the markets should do what the markets should do, regardless of fed activity. They should do whatever they think is right and let the chips fall where they may. Heres the question i have. I mean, and guy brings up a great point here. But for the past five years, it really has been about everybody saying dont fight the fed. Youve got to always be careful whats going to happen. So, my question then becomes for the overall markets, when do you feel comfortable enough to say fundamentals matter more than anything else and i would much rather trade on those particular aspects than, say, whats going to happen on the central bank side of things. And maybe, guy, thats the question for you. How would you play this if you know that the fed is such a central part of the picture . I think thats a good point. If youve been trying to trade on fundamentals the last couple years, youve been getting steamrolled, because effectively, youve been trying to play it from the short side. So, i think when fundamentals do matter again, which they will, i dont think the fundamentals, and this is just me speaking, are nearly as strong as the Broader Market would suggest. And the fact that Interest Rates, not only in the u. S. , but globally, are at levels that they are speaks to deflate a global deflationary story, which to me, again, is going to become a story. I dont know when its going to become one, but when it will, its not going to be a pleasant ending. Guy, well leave it there for now. Good to see you this afternoon, though. Right on kell. Thanks to everybody. Stick around and catch guy coming up with the rest of the fast money crew here at 5 00 p. M. Theyll talk with jetblue ceo dave barger about their new Premium Service called mint. Dont miss that. Dominos pizza today launching a new app that enables user to order a pizza through Voice Recognition. You can kind of think of it as a competitor to siri, but the app is named dom, so weve put our own dom here up to the challenge. Dom versus dom. We want you to give this a shot and test it and see how well the Voice Recognition technology works. What we have is the dominos app on your iphone and theres a beta button with a microphone at the bottom, thats the dom app. We decided to see if this app really does work well. Its driven by nuance communications, the same people that did siri, other Voice Recognition, but were going to try to order a pizza. Right now . Right now, and see if it does actually get to us before our hour is done. They have to get the order right. So, they have to get the order right. Heres the question. Before i place the order, anybody have any special requests . Usage. And pepperoni. Plain cheese. Pineapple. That seems like a tricky one. How about everything . How about a combo pizza . Youre going to see on our screen right over here, were going to hit the beta button that says Voice Recognition. Its telling me, what can i get you . So, im going to tap in here and say, okay, large combination pizza. Is there an option to get this thing delivered by drone, by the way . I know, right . Oh, there are the choices. There we go. Im not sure we should have said chicken bacon ranch sandwich 2 liter of coke. Should we say it . Large cheese pizza. Large cheese pizza. Just a moment. Yeah, i think were going to have to finish this one up during the break. Were working on it. Tell us what you ordered, well track it throughout the hour. And you can catch an exclusive interview with dominos ceo Patrick Doyle on squawk alley tomorrow morning at 11 00. Still working on it. Still working. Still working. Also still working, the stock market, remains near record highs, even as main street is slowly recovering from the great recession. Coming up next, well look at why the boom on wall street could, perhaps, force fed chair janet yellen to raise Interest Rates sooner than anybody is expecting. Also, how is increasing regulation impacting the bottom line of financial industry . We will hear exclusively from travelers ceo jay fishman later on the closing bell. Keep it right here, youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. [ indistinct shouting ] [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. Splitsecond stats. [ indistinct shouting ] its so close to the options floor. [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ]. Youll bust your brain box. All on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. Welcome back. As we continue on the path of what some call an uneven recovery, one investment strategist is now saying the Federal Reserve may be forced to tighten rates, not because of main street getting stronger, necessarily, but because of wall street getting too strong. Our own jeff cox is tracking the story for us over at cnbc. Com and has more. Jeff . Yes, kelly, thank you. Michael hartnaet put out a note last week that caught my eye. It was a little bit of a stark reminder of just the situation were in with this twospeed recovery. His position is basically, look, wall street has done so well during this recovery, and main street still meandering, still a lot of things out there, the housing recovery and we look at the jobs numbers and see all the longterm unemployment. When the fed starts to put all that together, as we go through the year, maybe into the fall, theyre going to have to start tightening maybe sooner than they want to because they want to rein in some of this speculative excess. And is the sense from Michael Hartnet that this would be a mistake or that this is the right thing to do, jeff . I think his sense is it would be the right thing to do. I dont think its something anybody on wall street really wants to see. Its important to note also that his advice for investors is not to really worry about this until the fall. He thinks the summers going to be very good as far as the market goes, and in the fall, he thinks well start to see that correction. Now, i think its important to make a couple of points here. We know that Central Bank Policy is most effective, for good or for bad, when they do things unexpectedly. I was drawn to Something Else that i read today in barrons. Abby joseph cohen, senior strategist at goldman sachs, says she thinks the fed may actually increase rates before the end of qe, which i thought that is a really outofconsensus call, but if that happens, it will really shake up the market. But whats interesting, kayla, about this is exactly your point earlier, which is, if people were anticipating this, wouldnt bond yields be moving much higher as opposed to had i so this steady, in fact, decline weve seen so far this year . Yeah, and i think that at some point the expectation, but the fed has to balance that consumer demand for loans hasnt been as blockbuster as the market may have expected that to be. And so, do you start to raise rates earlier than expected when a lot of these consumers are starting to have dry powder again . Theyre starting to have, you know, a desire to invest in their business or to take out a loan to do Something Else or to buy a car, to buy a house. So, how do you balance whats going on with the consumer, if in fact, there is a disparity with some of the speculation that jeff is mentioning on the buy side of the market, where sophisticated wall Street Investors are concerned . Cardiff, what say you . I think this is a very problematic argument, okay . We have to distinguish first between the feds regulatory responsibilities and its Monetary Policy mandate, which doesnt say anything about Financial Stability. That has to be a secondary subordinate variable. To say that the fed should raise rates before it otherwise would is to say that it should deliberately miss on a couple targets its already been missing for years in order to avoid missing them by more in the future. Thats a very tough case to make and it risks setting the expectation that there will be times in the future when the fed wont go out in hitting mandated targets. I think its a tough case to make. Which target do you think its missed on . Inflation and employment, on both, since the end of the recession. It hasnt consensus expectation is that theyre actually going to ratchet down projections for unemployment. In fact, in other words, the rates going to be lower than they think its going to be but its not at its longterm estimate for full employment yet. Jeff, i think actually that that employment picture is what is going to end up forcing the fed to move, not the concern about Financial Stability. You know, unemployment could fall below 6 this year, and that would be very hard for the fed to dismiss as saying, you know, obviously, there are broader measures of slack in the labor market, but once you start getting a 5. 9, 5. 8, 5. 7, youre close to full employment and that might be the first thing to trigger the fed to move, not the worry over Financial Stability. So, the fed provides easy money, allows company to buy 1 trillion worth of stock, pump up the markets and then walk away from the mess it created . Good Monetary Policy doesnt necessarily have to be costless, all right . I dont like instability any more than anybody else, but the fed has to calibrate its policy so its best suited to pursue its targets, all right . Thats what it has to do. It can use other tools to combat instability. There may be instability as a result of Monetary Policy. We just have to live with it. One thing i wondered before you go, if you fast forwarded a couple years and say the stock market goes up another 25 , unemployment is down towards the goals, inflation is in line, even, its at 2 . In retrospect, should they have tightened to prevent some kind of market meltup like some people are discussing . Thats what i wonder not necessarily. I think you still have to make the case that the fed in the future still wont have the ability to fight even future bursted bubbles. I think thats tough to make, too. The problem of using Monetary Policy to pop bubbles is its very difficult to pop the bubble while youre in it [ everyone talking at once ] cleaning up afterwards hasnt been done so easy, either. How do they get a free pass after they create the bubble and then just walk away and say, okay, you figure it out . I dont understand that. Who says they got a free pass . I mean, you guys what are you talking about . Didnt you just say that the fed is not responsible for Financial Stability . No, i said it was a secondary subordinate variable. Its an input, like anything else, but its not its primary target. If you want to elevate it to the rank of primary target, that requires a new act, a new mandate. And the now swornin vice chair of the fed said in his congressional testimony that he felt Financial Stability should be on par, even if its not a legislative maneuver, but should be on par in the feds considerations with inflation and weve got to leave it there, jeff, but i hope somebodys thinking about this. I really do. No, they are. They are. Wednesdays the day, and were going to send it over to Mary Thompson here for a quick market flash. Hey, kelly. Check out jen teva health, spiking in the after hours. Kindra health is announcing tomorrow it will begin a cash offer to acquire gentiva for 14. 50 a share. Gentiva trading higher in after hours, up over 4 . Look at shares of kindred to see how its responding to the news of its offer. Slightly lower, down just about 2 . Also, we want to check out shares of gm on that recall . Guess not. All right, kelly, back to you. Mary, thank you. We would like to check in with gm and tesla, another big mover today, later in the hour. Meantime, were awaiting a big interview. Coming up, we have some pizza thats finally going to be delivered, as dominic chu has managed to talk to the other dom. Yeah, oh, there it goes. It says its baking in the oven. Yeah. That only took, well, about ten minutes. Ten minutes. There is a gratuitous order of parmesan bread bites. For the ride home . No, thats because kay lo only wanted cheese pizza and i felt bad there are other toppings on there, so im getting kayla something she can eat. Such a sweetheart. Travelers are at alltime highs. Up next, travelers ceo jay fishman tells us exclusively how his company has been able to double the returns of the rest of the Financial Sector this year. And a new report finds half of all Asset Managers will be gone by the year 2030. Find out what will spark that shakeup and if our closing bell panel is buying it. Well be right back. [ female announcer ] theres a gap out there. Thats keeping you from the healthcare you deserve. At humana, we believe if healthcare changes, if it becomes simpler. If frustration and paperwork decrease. If grandparents get to live at home instead of in a home. The gap begins to close. So lets simplify things. Lets close the gap between people and care. The porter was so incredibly. Careful. Careless. With our bags. And the room they gave us it was. Beautiful. A broom closet. But the best part but the worst part was the shower. My wife drying herself with the. Egyptian cotton towels. Shower curtain. Defined that whole vacation for her. Dont just visit new york. Visit tripadvisor new york. [ male announcer ] with millions of reviews, a visit to tripadvisor makes any destination better. [ male announcer ] with millions of reviews, being able to pay as we go to is crucial for a start up. Deas. Having to fork out a lot of money up front was risky. We can launch a feature really quick, and if the feature doesnt work, we havent lost anything, and we can have something up and running in days. And this would not be possible without the cloud. We are now supporting over 25 million users each month. Time to take care of business with century links Global Broadband network and cloud infrastructure. We constantly evolve to meet your needs every day of the week. Welcome back, and take a look at insurance giant travelers. The shares trading near an alltime high. In reality, the companys pretty much about on a tear since 2005. So, lets dig into the numbers exclusively now with the man leading the charge, travelers ceo jay fishman. Jay, it is great to have you here. Welcome. Nice to be here with you, kelly. And dont wish a curse on anything, but at an alltime high. So, this raises the question. Given the outperformance that youve registered not only during your tenure relative to others in the sector and in the Financial Sector, but also during the financial crisis, where travelers avoided the subprime, some of the other issues that have felled rivals. Make the case for owning your shares, though, from here. Well, so, first let me back up a little bit, because i think its helpful. Back in 04, we made the decision to move away from riskbased assets, and it wasnt because we were all that pressed in about the real estate environment, but risk spreads, spreads you were getting for risky assets relative to riskfree, were simply at alltime lows, so we made a moveaway and managed to avoid all of it. Fundamental in that decision was a premise that we are an Insurance Company first and an asset manager second. Now, not everyone does that, and i give lots of credit all the time to berkshire hathaway. Warren does it a different way, and he is remarkably successful, but we are an Insurance Company first. And our premise for producing value is that superior returns over time will returns on capital will ultimately convert to returns on the stock, and its been successful. So, weve generated substantial earnings. We have been buying back our shares since the middle of 06 as a strategy, not as a tactic, and we continue on that same path. So, if you believe in the value of returns and the value of capital committed to thoughtful businesses, to good returning businesses, i think were as good today as we were then. Well, and you guys say your objective is midteens operating return on equity. Again, thats something a lot of the banks are struggling right now to achieve. But at the same time, about half of that return on equity lately has been investment returns. I mean, you are in that sense a little bit riskier and more of an investment company, perhaps, than people might realize. Yeah, although the nature of our assets are interesting. Weve got a 72 billion investment portfolio. 68 billion of it is bonds. 4 billion or so are in alternative asset classes. The bonds that we buy are all very highquality bonds. Our duration right now sits at just below 4. Were an average aa1, aaflat kind of holding, and we look for municipal securities, taxfreeze, a smattering of taxables. Again, its to match our insurance policies. We price them to yields available today. When im asked where do you go to reach for yield, the answer is nowhere. We take the yield we can get in an appropriate, riskadjusted way and sell insurance policies around it. Interestingly, there are a lot of people today looking at pension funds, but also Insurance Companies and saying, why isnt anybody buying the stock market . And why arent you . I mean, 68 billion of your 72 billion is in bonds, and it sounds like youve been positioning for a raise in Interest Rates as opposed to the environment were in today. Why not just invest in the plain, vanilla s p 500 . Yeah, and again, certainly, people do. For us, very comfortable selling an insurance policy priced at todays yields and not worrying about the mismatch Going Forward. All of the things that we worry about. We worry about a hurricane, an earthquake, the things that require us to pay potentially billions in claims starting the very next day. So, we stay focused on liquidity and we stay focused on matching our assets and liabilities. If one wants to carry an investment portfolio, you could certainly do that, but its just not how weve concluded that we want to create value. A couple major changes in the industry you noted back in 2010. One of them, in fact, was just historically low rates. The other was increased volatility of weather patterns. And in response to both, youve had to make some changes, and they include raising premiums on the homeowners side, also on the auto side. It sounds like, though, with regard to the auto piece right now, its bottom almost a common tiesed business, thanks to the likes of players like geico. How do you fight back, or do you fight back . Its certainly a challenging business line in auto. And of course, our philosophy of raising prices was not unique to personal insurance. Were twothirds Business Insurance and been raising prices there as well. But Auto Insurance continues to change. We focused on two things. We knew we had to lower our costs and wed been through a significant restructuring of our Auto Insurance business to do that. Taken about 140 million of costs out of that business, and weve established a new product that also pays a lower commission, because ultimately, agents that we sell our product through, independent insurance agents, they understand that 12 of something is a lot better than 14 of nothing. And so, its been a success. So far, were out in 28 states or so now, and the product is working for us. But youre right, its certainly a more commoditized product. I dont know i would call it truly a commodity, because there is a value component thats different than just price, but price sure matters a lot. What happens to that business Going Forward . I mean, does this trend inexorably continue . Because there are people that know as youve seen firsthand, this is driving down costs and reaching competitors throughout the industry. There are plenty of people that say to me, i still dont understand why Auto Insurance is so expensive. And were on the cusp, i suspect, of some real changes in Auto Insurance generally driven by cars and technology. So, youve read a lot about driverless cars. I worry less about that certainly than the notion that technology will eventually make driving safer. Now, whats happening right now is the technology is doing its job, but the distraction factor is trumping it. So, youve got, whether its your gps system or your radio, it isnt just texting while driving, its all of the systems of your car that attract your attention, other than the road are trumping the basic systems that are embedded in there. I suspect once the automobile manufacturers get that Technology Better embedded in automobiles, less active, more passive, that, in fact, automobile losses could go down, could go down a lot, and that will change the automobile insurance business, i suspect dramatically. I dont know whether its 10 years or 20 years, but i could see the day where premiums are much smaller because losses are much smaller, and we drive our premiums off the loss base. So, its going to be a fascinating business to watch over the next 10, 20 years, i think. Meantime, just a question, hows the Housing Market . Most recently more sluggish. Same things youre reading. In the longer term, it has been better. The economy generally so, you have people here who are economists we speak to all the time. We insure a million businesses a year and we get a lot of data from them of what theyre expecting economically. We price our policies off data, whether its employees payroll, Workers Compensation sales for general liability, and we take all that data and we tumble it. And the best you could say at the moment is that the outlook is, the outlook of businesspeople at that level, small, middle market business is cautious, very cautious. If you had to put a number on it, and its a tough thing to do, but youd say Business Owners are contemplating perhaps 2 , 2. 5 growth. Now, thats an outlook, and it will be different. The actual number will be different. But our customers are at least telling us that they remain very cautious about their outlook for the economy. I imagine that makes them very costsensitive as well. And they have other factors to work through, including the Affordable Care act, obamacare. And you guys see yourselves as actually playing a role to some extent in bringing Health Care Costs down, is that right . Even through the property and casualty side . Yeah, im not sure bringing them down, but we are the largest Workers Compensation insurer in the United States and we handle billions of losses in workers comp, so we have a great, big business in helping our customers manage their medical costs associated with workers comp claims. We engaged hart analytics to do a survey for us. They went out to 1,100 businesses. It was interesting, at least to me. The single biggest worry that businesspeople responded to was the uncertainty and unpredict t unpredictability of Health Care Costs. Thats obviously a benefit and the Human Resource people go work on that. We get very focused on helping our customers get their employees back on the job and back to work, so we are deeply engaged in medical networks and in helping our customers manage those costs. Its going to be a challenge. The demographics in the u. S. Are clearly working towards higher medical history. We are getting older and visit the doc more frequently. Increased demand, supply not keeping up with it, and in that will come, we suspect, some increase in costs that will go along with it. Speaking of big changes, one that youve been a proponent of in the past is drawing attention to the nations longterm debt and deficit situation and youve had the documentary you helped produce a couple years ago. But its a different picture today. I mean, would you acknowledge that, certainly, at least for now, theres been a vast improvement . And is our attention, do you think, misplaced on trying to do more to address those fiscal concerns right now . Yeah, so, shortterm, sure, we were running deficits of 1. 1 trillion and now were down in the 700 billion, 800 billion. Its moved a little bit. Some of the sequester helped, some of the economic recovery brought in more revenues. Longer term, i think the picture remains the same and its concerning. Social security, medicaid and medicare, just cbo data, theyre going to go up by 100 billion every year for at least the next ten, at least. Thats 1 trillion more in spending than we have today. So, that 1 trillion over the next ten years, add it to todays expenditure of 1. 6 trillion, trillion is what we brought in last year of total revenues. I think at the moment, its a little bit better. I think the fundamental demographic challenges remain, and its a real concern. And are you, just a couple quick questions about business as well before we go. One is, youve done an acquisition in canada recently yes. Are you looking to make more acquisitions abroad . We would like to in markets that allow more robust returns. And there are markets, Continental Europe is overinsured, way too much capacity there, so were really not interested there. We would love to find a way into india to do it in a thoughtful kind of way. So, where there are markets where the game isnt already over, wed love to find our way there. And with target in the news again with regards to security at its stores, is Cyber Security going to be, do you think, a required part of insurance for most businesses Going Forward . I actually think in the insurance arena, which can be boring as can be, but thats actually i think the most interesting topic of all, because Insurance Companies have not yet wrestled with the notion of reputational damage and the knockon effects of reputational damage. We dont cover that. We cover loss to physical property, we indemnify against lawsuits. But the question is, when Something Like this happens and there really is no loss except a reputational impact and then the resulting impact on the business is customers make other choices, thats going to be a really hard one. And i think, by the way, thats both a challenge as well as an opportunity, but were at the earliest days of figuring out how to help customers manage that risk. And even with your shares at alltime highs, youre still buying them back. Youve bought back 58 of the float since starting the Buyback Program in 2006. Yeah, yeah. Were trading now with Something Like 1. 25 of book, the bre breakeven between the book value delusion and the increasing earnings per share and time you earn that back is still an easy call for us, so yes, still in the buyback mode. Well, congratulations on the success youve had relative to your peers in this marketplace for now, certainly since 2005, and i think more people are looking at returns on equity, not seeing them in the traditional financial space, and seeing them at your company. Jay, thank you so much for being here. Pleasure. Thank you for the invitation. Appreciate your time. The company voted with its feet. Medical devicemaker medtronic becoming the youngest to escape corporate taxes with its purchase of irelands covidien for 43 billion. Are the flood gates about to open for tax inversions because lawmakers are behind the curve on this issue . Were back in a moment. I make a lot of purchases for my business. And i get a lot in return with ink plus from chase. Like 50,000 bonus points when i spent 5,000 in the first 3 months after i opened my account. And i earn 5 times the rewards on internet, phone services and at Office Supply stores. With ink plus i can choose how to redeem my points. Travel, gift cards, even cash back. And my rewards points wont expire. So you can make owning a business even more rewarding. Ink from chase. So you can. In a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow quires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. Ill help you look. Maybe you left them in the bathroom again. Its just the strangest thing. The warning signs of alzheimers disease, may be right in front of you. Its alright baby. For help and information, call the Alzheimers Association or visit alz. Org 10signs thats why i always choose the fastest intern. R slow. The fastest printer. The fastest lunch. Turkey club. The fastest pencil sharpener. The fastest elevator. The fastest speed dial. The Fastest Office plant. So why wouldnt i choose the fastest wifi . I would. Switch to comcast Business Internet and get the fastest wifi included. Comcast business. Built for business. A major deal in the medical Device Industry which may have as much to do with taxes as it does with medical devices. Meg terrell has the details for us now. Meg . Hey, kelly. Thats right, medtronic buying covidien today, reincorporating in ireland to take advantage of that 12. 5 tax rate, continuing on a lot of these inversion deals in health care lately. Earlier this year, pfizer attempted to buy astrazeneca for almost 120 billion to reincorporate in the uk. Of course, that didnt go through. We may see that come back at the end of the year. A couple other deals in the last couple years on that. But this is also continuing a trend of consolidation among medical device companies. We saw zimmer and biomet get together earlier this year. J j a couple years ago. And analysts are saying this is a result of pricing pressure in the industry. Now hospitals trying to spend less money under the Affordable Care act and just overall pricing pressures throughout the industry. So, we may see more consolidation. Now, interestingly, medtronics stock, after being up today, ended up closing down about 1. 1 . Analyst Josh Jennings telling me some people were concerned maybe the deal wouldnt go through before congress aims to curb these tax aversion capabilities of companies. He thinks that concern is overblown, but there are some proposals being batted around in the white house and congress to curb this activity. Were hearing a lot of lawmakers may be trying to get this done before that happens. Kelly . Meg, such a controversial topic for now. Earlier this month on kiloing bell, we spoke with the ceo with regard to mergers and acquisitions and heres what he told us. I dont want to comment on any speculation, but what i will say is our general strategy towards m a is first around strategy, Business Strategy itself. So, we look at what the Strategic Elements are, and then we optimize the structure after weve settled on whether those Strategic Elements are attractive or not for us to pursue anything in that space. Are we in an acquireordie kind of environment . And is this motivated by cost pressures across the industry . Does it have to do with obamacare or some of the broader transformations happening in hospitals today . I dont think were all in an acquire or die mode. We have a strong business, a strong operating business. We know how to grow the business organically. Weve got heavy investment in r d, for which were getting returns. Weve got plenty of opportunity, organic opportunity in emerging markets. I think health care is an industry and an opportunity thats an undeniably big, both from a business perspective as well as a societal need. All right, so, heres the question, dom. Now that this is happening, does this just create every company needing to jump in and do the same thing . It does for the time being, but you get a sense that this is perhaps a salvo being fired across congress from the business side of things as well. If there is this kind of a rush to get deals done strictly because of the tax benefits of incorporating outside the u. S. , does that in essence amount to a ceo letter, if you will, to congress saying, if you guys keep on this path, we are going to look for Business Opportunities elsewhere . Its not that we dont want to be in the u. S. Maybe i tend to view this as more of a signal that ceos are saying, hey, congress, wed like a more friendly environment for business in america. If not, these are the things we have to do to get business done, especially if our International Competitors are doing the same kind of thing. Kayla . A lot of these companies have also they feel like theyve been promised a lot by washington, and washington hasnt delivered. Remember, when taxes started rising after the 2012 fiscal cliff standoff, there was something of a promise from washington that the entire tax code would be reformed at some point. Didnt happen in 2013, wont happen this year. Now people are saying it wont happen until 2017, after were out of the current election cycle, and i dont blame some of these companies for saying, look, we cant wait any longer and we have our strategy in place and we need to execute on it. And just as a note here, Medtronics Covidien buy is subject to no change in u. S. Tax law, so its not a minor issue. The crisis in iraq weighing on the stock market, and thats been heating up cnbc. Com today. The hot list is next. According to the firm kpmg, theres a 50 chance your asset manager could be out of business by 2030, but our panel isnt so sure of that. Details are straight ahead. And dom chu anxiously awaiting this pizza delivery, well, from your alter ego. Is it arriving . Will it get here on time . Well find out when we come right back. Seeing the world in reverse, and i loved every minute of it. But then you grow up and theres no going back. But its okay, its just a new kind of adventure. And really, who wants to look backwards when you can look forward . In todays market, a lot can happen in a second. With fidelitys guaranteed onesecond trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 Market Centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. Its all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. Im derrick chan of fidelity investments. Our onesecond trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Call or click to open your fidelity account today. The numbers are impressive. Over 400,000 new private sector jobs. Making new york state number two in the nation in new private sector job creation. With 10 Regional Development strategies to fit your business needs. And now its even better because theyve introduced startup new york. With the state creating dozens of taxfree zones where businesses pay no taxes for ten years. Become the next business to discover the new new york. [ male announcer ] see if your business qualifies. Welcome back. The mounting crisis in iraq is dominating conversation from k. Street to wall street to main street. Interest on cnbc domino different. For the rundown of the hot list, managing editor allen wasser. Good to see you. A rock dominating the hot list, i understand. A rock. Ever since the story started boiling over last week, its been a dominant subject on the website. Right now were leading with a piece from the fiscal times, where they laid out what the consequences for america would be with a collapse in iraq, laying out military consequences, economic effects, the energy game. Fascinating story. Over 30,000 people have read that one. My number two right now is why Millennial Women do not save. This is a story about kelly holland. She digs deep into a number of reasons. The most concerning fact i got out of this one was, 18 , only 18 of Millennial Women are actually financially literate compared to 28 . What does financially literate mean . This is done by finra, the financial regulatory authority, and they have their, you know, average investor quiz. Okay. And this is sort of how people perform on that one. Number three is a fun one from robert frank, a slide show he put together on how to get rich men to go shopping for mansions. Apparently, they dont like to do that kind of shopping too much. So, hes laid out some little tricks that they do. Like, so, like any other kind of shopping, i guess. Basically. I still cant stop thinking about these millennial females who arent saving. Thank you. Take care. What do apple and walmart have in common . They could have the future of finance. Why retail and tech and Consumer Industries may rise in the management business. And tomorrow, outspoken fed critic jim grant, a day before the feds latest meeting. Hell have plenty to say about janet yellen and co. Tune in. Two reps Blockbuster Video could by a set managers according to a few study from kpmg. 50 of global asset manager firms will be gone by when the itself 30 as new technology and social habits change the industry, dom, this a big wakeup call for the business or something they shouldnt lose sleep over . It could be. Im a little skeptical, having come from won point in my life from an independent adviser poll, i worked for a smaller moouch mutual manager. I worked at hen see funds. Theyre not the bank guards, the t. Rose, they have a role in this financial mark because they provide prukts and services that everybody wants to use in their own way, shape or form, so to me to say there will be a handful of Asset Managers left 20, 30 years from now doesnt get to the point because of technology, because of changing needs, there will be so many other people that can fill some of those other niches. I tend to think there will be more Asset Managers, maybe not the biggest ones out there. There might be more, they wont be the traditional ones, im thinking of learn vest, you pay a flat fee annually, you basically, have access to a low cost financial adviser, people dont need the newer touch anymore. I think another thing is hurting the traditional asset manage in industry, thats the do not call list the ftc put out years ago, so now you cant cold call, you are pounding the pavement, getting new clients that, is not the the way to connect with them. All the young Financial Advisers on wall street know what we were talking about. I was happy to make those cold calls or semi luke warm calls. And it was a numbers game. You dialed 100, hopefully you got one or two people to talk to you. Thats the point. You talk about the demographic shift that might be driving this trend, people dont want to be cold call anymore, thats not how you will get your business the kpmg report they mentioned the increasing role of women, marketing of women as head of households and managing family finances, i think that will be an important sectr to manage in the future. I think consolidation in the industry is different from saying growth in assets under management will slow, since we said this has the potential for stockmarket disruptions later. Its not because of leverage problems, its because of shortterm typical behavior, it will be more money chasing the same stuff. It will be flowing in and out. That will be a potential problem. We are seeing that now. Earlier, dominos advocates called dom, by the way, the izzo did finally get here. The question is whether the other dom understand u understood this doms order. Well find out. We finally got it. It smells good. It does spell good. Smell good. Kid do you pay him . Dad of course. Smell good. Smell good. Smell good. Smell good. Smel. Dad nope. Kid why not . Dad it doesnt work that way. Kid why not . Vo are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed . Wealth management at charles schwab. [ squeaking ] [ water dripping ] visit tripadvisor hawaii. [ whistling ] with millions of reviews, tripadvisor makes any destination better. Thats keeping you from the healthcare you deserve. At humana, we believe if healthcare changes, if it becomes simpler. If frustration and paperwork decrease. If grandparents get to live at home instead of in a home. The gap begins to close. So lets simplify things. Lets close the gap between people and care. Peace of mind is important when so we provide it services you betbucan rely on. D care. With centurylink as your trusted it partner, youll experience reliable uptime for the network and services you depend on. Multilayered Security Solutions keep your information safe, and secure. And responsive dedicated support meets your needs, and eases your mind. Centurylink. Your link to whats next. [ male announcer ] its one of the most Amazing Things we build and it doesnt even fly. We build it in classrooms and exhibit halls, mentoring tomorrows innovators. We build it raising roofs, preserving habitats and serving americas veterans. Every day, thousands of boeing volunteers help make their communities the best they can be. Building Something Better for all of us. Welcome back, final thoughts now, dom buy, sell or hold . I will say its a buy. I will say this. I expected i have inspected it. I will say on the actual iphone app, it does say for the voice ve rex recognition its a bet that test. I will say after our ordering snafu it took them about 30 minutes to get the pizza in the door. Flo word on how successful it is when are you not broadcasting the coverage on television, of course. Or ordering it at 2 00 in the morning. By the way, we took the Consumer Reports approach, we didnt tell dominos we were doing this. We will see whether tomorrow morning Patrick Doyle has a problem. We want to foe if they need a recognition app if the regular app is working just fine. Google three times on the show its been dominos, diversify a bit. Pizza hut, the rest, they have to get into the game. Think the big four only have 40 of the market share, though, as compared with other serious other are you going on jeopardy . I would much rather talk to a reel real person, id rather call dom. If we live in the tristate area, we have a ton of tweets, we should be ordering from mom and pop shops, of course, that itself Small Business side. Thats true. We can do that like grub hub kind of thing. Guys, thank you. Fast money coming up if a few minutes. Melissa lee, do you guys got pizza . No, send some our way, kelly. We sal. Whats on tap . We will trade tesla, up 9 on top of a huge move, tesla is up a 22 , so our traders are weighing in, giving you the trade right now. All right, looking forward it to. Over to you guys. Fast money starts right now. Live from the fax markets, new york citys times square, im melissa lee, tonights top story, the escalating crisis in iraq. Turmoil in the middle east is keeping wall street on high alert. We have dennis gartman. Plus a first on first cnbc interview about jet blue and how it could impact his business. The question right now is how high the government will allow oil es