Unprecedented but it is rare. Well ask people about that. The industrials bounce back today and what appears to be a deescalation in japan, letting putin claim hes pulling troops back from the border and is calling for a dialogue on the crisis. Is the market reading this one correctly . And weve got jim brent coming up in the 4 00 hour. Hes some of the guys that gmo have been saying if you want to wade into an area thats incredibly cheap albeit risky its russia and gas prom. That trade paying off well today. Well talk to him about that. The russian market up 6 today after mr. Putin made those comments. Another big day for the earnings. After the bell, stand by for tesla. They lead the pack of my profile stocks and among them momentum players, could move in a big way based on those numbers. Also reporting an hour from now. 21st century fox. The move arm of what used to be news corp. Green money and it and many more so well get to those coming up in the next hour. Heres where we stand in markets thats mentioned. The dow moving strongly to the upside adding 100 points or. 6 of 1 but the nasdaq a different story, down another. 75 of 1 after a tough day yesterday. 4050 is the level there and the s p moving to the upside, just about six point, 1873 this hour. Lets talk about this crazy market in our closing bell exchange. Abigail doolittle is with us and so is Keith Fitzgerald from Money Map Press and Larry Mcdonald from new edge, usa, and mosha cohen joins us from Columbia Business School and kenny volcari from oneill securities. Dow up 100, nasdaq down sharply. Feels like maybe the popping of the momentum stocks or the tech bubble, however you want to put it. Whats going on with the two markets . Theres two things. The weakness from the morning. People werent paying attention to putins comments until after Janet Yellens comments that shes keeping the Interest Rates at zero forever and the nasdaq continues to be under trouble under duress as investors and traders really look to continue to raise cash from some of those high growth names and put it back into what we see kind of the broader stable largecap americana names. I think theres not a lot of volume here. Not a lot of oomph. Right at 1875. I think the sells will start to come out. Its not just that the dow and nasdaq are moving in Different Directions that has people scratching their heads. The weakness of the u. S. Dollar, to some extent whats happening across the treasury space where the yield on the tenyear is behaving as if theres either serious concerns with global growth, geopolitical risks on a day when those appear to be going away. Whats driving the behavior of the markets. If you think about the tenyear, right now were at 2. 257. The last time we were here on the tenyear u. S. Equities were 1835 in early march and 1740 in early february, so theres definitely a disconnect there and then you have crashes within the market. Tech names, twitter, fire eye, all of these tech names down 20 , 30 , whole foods, so its just a massive disconnect going on right now. You said whole foods and thats whats so interesting. Abigail, i mean, were talking is this a story about the u. S. Consumer, about a business that just isnt executing the way that people had expected . Is there a theme to whats happening in the market today . Great question. That you can discern . Well, great question, kelly, and what i would say is i think were continuing to see a rotation out of of stocks. This was led by the rally in bonds that started at the beginning of the year, a repricing of risk. Smart investors are getting out of the high flier momentum names first. Disagree with kenny, love him but disagree with them. Dont think the money are putting that money into the safe stocks of the dow. I think were seeing ab rotation of stocks that will lead to a correction. The dow is up 100 points. Today it is up 100 points but what about next week or two weeks for now. I think were setting up for massive massive volatility. As an infliction point. Waiting to see if the fed can take off the training wheels. I think smart investors, the repricing of risk is telling us they are not going to be able to successfully unwind without causing volatility in the markets and more importantly without causing damage to the economy 1. Dave what are you telling your students about the economy, is the economy growing enough to justify the kind of stock performances weve seen the last couple of months . I like to separate between fundamental valuation and where prices are. In terms of fundamental valuation we have a lot of stocks that look healthy. It seems to be a lot greater than the growth numbers, but there is a flight to yield. The bond market is crazy. Ive learned over the past ten years not to trust the bond market to tell us much about the future of the economy, so stocks are the place that people are parking their cash and are thats a good idea and in the shorter term any type of thing can shape things. Investorses are looking at stocks like twitter that had valuations, and were not looking at this more closely and asking harder valuation cars. Yields are obviously pretty low and they should be going up theoretically as the fed brings in the easy money policy over the next couple of months and that remains low and some people thats a signal that the economy is not as strong as others would sut. Youre not trusting that message for the bond market. Im saying a lot of things happen in the bond market. Im saying dont look to the fed as if they have some crystal ball about whats going to happen in the economy. We know whats happening in the economy. Were all looking at the same measures in the economy. There are questions about future growth and we need to address those questions with what can fundamentally impact the growth trajectory of the economy. Respectfully, professor, youve got to separate two things. Theres a theme. One, bloom is off the rose as far as tech, moving out of momentum and into value. Theres a mechanism thats very brutal, a serious dichotomy in how the market is working and the tenyear is always the truth serum and what that tells you is traders around the world dont have the trust they need to lever up the portfolios that they have. Gold is coming off and a lot of things speaking to a deleveraging environment and if that were true the yield would be going the other way but the traders arent buying it. Thats an interesting point and lets stay on this for one moment here. Do you think this has something to do with the backdrop of whats happening in japan or the fed other . Whats the catalyst, why now, or is it better growth and expectations in the u. S. Actually . Theres two cat lifts. One is yellen continues to take the training wheels off and is making things up as she goes along and pointing to statistics like jobs and, for example, no inflation. If you dont eat and dont buy gas and dont buy medicine and send your kids to school then i guess inflation is low but the real economy is all about main treatment. They want to go to work and this recovery is not helping them so its about the fed playing into wall streets hands, thats theme number one. Number two deleveraging of the tech piece, if youre looking to that people are figuring out that there are revenue models that have no revenue so the alibaba thing is a big thing because youre talking about 240 billion worth of revenue and 30 bigger than amazon and ebay combined and for the first time were seeing real money. Those are very different scenarios being played against economics versus trader certainty. Thats the split. Theres separate points here. I agree with keith. Hang on, abigail. Theres price pressures on the tenyear which are a little bit different. Looking at the past as an indicator of the future is not future. Theres price pressure because of huge stock held by the fed. Theres price pressure because of baby boomers retiring and parking money into bonds. Theres price pressure because the spreads are so low in europe so i dont think its enough to look at that as an indication of growth. As to the second point there are things that can and should be done to generate growth in the economy. The focus will have to change from averages to the composition of the economy that has changed over the past six years. We need to start thinking about how the returns to Human Capital have been changing over the past few years and why is it that theres a concentrated amount of people with huge returns and then theres this whole other group that is falling out of the employment pool. Thats not these people are not foregone. Professor, thats a wonderful point. Thats absolutely a wonderful point but trade verse to make decisions in realtime every single day so policy is one issue. Risk on a portfolio is another one. Every single night weve got to mark to market and theres value and risk that we have to account for, whether the exchanges like it or not or washington likes it or not. We can talk all we want but the fact of the matter is risk is risk and have you to deal with b it. You have to think about fundamental policy. Thats a great point. Part of your risk profile. Think about what will the policy be over the next ten years . That impacts growth. Okay. Lets bring abigail back in. Shes had a slight audio delay. If you look at the tenyear in a more simplistic term, its been rallying since the beginning of the year. Its pointing to something beyond the economy and looking at growth there. Speaking more to Systemic Risk and now that the fed is trying to back away, can we make it . Weve been here before. Here in 2010. Here in 2011. We know what happened both of those times. Kenny, one quick question to you. Youre right to some extent that you would see the tenyear rally and would think its pointing towards perhaps some kind of flight to safety but were not seeing what you would expect to happen with the u. S. Dollar ral egalong with it or weakness in stocks. Thats what makes this time seem so strange is that its hard to kind of tell a consistent story and see that consistent flight to safety that weve seen the last couple of times whether it was europe or u. S. Concerns that come to the fore. I actually think were going to hit our heads here and stocks will turn lower. I think they will test the 200 day and theres a complete disconnect like the professor said between what the economic fundamentals are and what stock prices are and stock prices are driven by the fed quality and thats got to come to a stop and theres got to be come to a mindset meeting, right. Weve been saying that since 2009 and were up 150 and how do you assess risk at the end of every single day . How do you do it, keith . I want to take a good solid look at what traders are doing. I want to take a look at where they are taking things. All the academic arguments in the world are fantastic and i respect them because thats where we need to go and have those discussions. Every single morning i need to know where my portfolio is sitting and where that risk is assessed. I want to know what the tenyear is and what those stocks are going to look like. Thanks for the energetic conversations we always enjoy this time of day. See you later. 45 minutes to go. The dow sitting up almost triple digits. 95 points as the nasdaq is lagging shedding 32, 4048. The vix looks all right, its lower. A lot of strange things happening. We didnt get a chance to talk about it but we will sometime this hour. Watch the russell 2000, trading below its 200day moving average and as one trader pointed out to me a lot of Pension Plans mark themselves to that particular index. The small caps, had a great ride the last few years but now its flirting with the topping activity. A lot of stock specific names are moving markets. We head into the bulk of earnings season. Speaking of which weve got more ahead coming up on the earnings clues. Weve got Green Mountain. Tesla, zillow and all among the big names to report after the close. Well bring the numbers the instant they hit the tape and well break them down with our team of pros. Stick around for that. And make or break time for yahoo Ceo Marissa Mayer who could make an estimated 12 billion from the alibaba initial Public Offering and how will mayer put that money to work and does she have to transform yahoo into an internet powerhouse, and how should you play yahoo s stock right now . Well look at all of that coming up. Fed chair janet yellen sees the economy growing this year but what that will do to rock bottom Interest Rates is the question. James grant, founder of the newsletter bearing his name. Will chime in on that. You dont want to miss it. Well be right back. Okay, listen up im reworkin the menu. Mayo . Corn dogs . You are so outta here aah [ female announcer ] the complete balanced nutrition of greattasting ensure. 24 vitamins and minerals, antioxidants, and 9 grams of protein. [ bottle ] ensure®. Nutrition in charge™. Marge you know, theres a more enjoyable [ bottle ] ensure®. Way to get your fiber. Try phillips fiber good gummies. Theyre delicious, and an excellent source of fiber to help support regularity. Wife mmmm husband these are good marge the tasty side of fiber. From phillips. Very interesting market day. You can see the dow is up 92 points. Was up more than 100 a few times. The s p up five and look at nasdaq. A lot of technology stocks, momentum stocks weve talked so much about. Down hard today. Twitter leading the way again after the lockup period. A lot of Insider Selling again. That index is down 31 points. A rare day where the blue chip average is up 100 points and the nasdaq, the techheavy nasdaq is down harply. Almost. 75 . Yahoo Ceo Marissa Mayer is under pressure now that the longawaited alibaba initial Public Offering has been announced. The stock down 7 . Josh lipton following the story for us from Silicon Valley. Hey, josh. Reporter what alibabas public debut means for yahoo Share Holders is an open question. Yahoo owns 23 of alibaba and will sell 9 of that stake in alibabas offering exactly how many billions of dollars that will net yahoo . It depends on the valuation, various tax considerations. Estimates on the street range from 7 billion to 11 billion what. Will yahoo do with all that money . Yahoo s Ceo Marissa Mayer was asked that question at a conference in new york city. We had previously sold part of our stake in alibaba and gotten the proceeds. We returned some of those proceeds to shareholders, in fact, the majority of proceeds went to shareholders and we did make some smart investment in the company in terms of building out talent and technology and platforms like tumblr. Analysts say yahoo could use the money to pay a dividend, increase its Buyback Program and yahoo could use the money to continue doing acquisitions and mayer would have to be careful when choosing acquisition targets. Yahoo does remain a turnaround story. Investors may not give mayer too much leeway to make risky bets. Many bought yahoo as a proxy for alibaba. For them the question is whether you stick with Marissa Mayer or sell and just own alibaba instead. Guys, back to you. Thank you, josh. For more now on what alibabas ipo filing does mean for yahoo and Marissa Mayers reign as yahoo ceo lets bring in our guests. Welcome to you both. Good to see you both. Nick, what was your takeaway . Did you learn anything from the interview . Interesting, she talked about spending the money and thats going to be the big question obviously going forward. She didnt give a lot of secrets about where shes taking this thing. Youre the resident bull. Bullish. On Marissa Mayer. Coming up on her twoyear anniversary at the company in july. Look at a twoyear chart, it seems the market has been pleased, or is this a proxy for alibaba . Thats the question, right, how much goodwill does Marissa Mayer contribute to the share price and she has had stink on them and once you get the stink on you its very hard to shake that but yahoo is the only company that weve actually seen make measurable progress at shaking the stink. Never saw myspace do that, never saw ask do that. We havent seen that before, so if youre looking for signs of a turnaround story what else do you want. All the same, nick, a lot of people would say that if the value of yahoo stake at alibaba is 40 billion and trading at a market cap of 35, the business has no negative value. Thats absolutely the case, and this is an unfair deby the and this is an improblem turnaround. If someone can do it it might be Marissa Mayer, even if it was steve jobs, a very, very difficult situation. You dont see these kinds of turnaround in consumer web or Consumer Tech and mobile and things like that. Just look at yahoo from the point of view of products. What product does yahoo have thats a must use, even in the past two years since mayer has come there in. I would say flickr, good investment in mail. She did mention that today. Really bullish in mobile apps and were seeing something refreshing. Not trying to own the platform, trying to win on the platform. Dont see that a lot. Google wants to be the platform. Doing something we dont see in technology a lot which is something thats outful. Would like to be the platform. Marisa will mention them on stage and no yahoo apps in the top 100 in the apple app store, a really hard thing to do. A lot of times you see the new things come out of startups and snapshot is phenomenal. How many has she bought, a couple dozen . Its not as if they dont have an incubator inhouse that they are apparently not bringing to the fore. Buying failed startups, not the ones that are working. Very expensive to buy ones that work. Facebook tried to buy snapchat for 4 billion and they said no. 8 billion sounds like a lot of money until you realize that it costs 19 billion to buy a mobile amp with a lot of traction. What should they do with the proceeds from alibaba . I cant imagine if they are in turnaround mode that they are thinking about buyback or a big dividend of some kind. Thats just a waste of those funds, dont you agree, natalie. She did specifically mention talent acquisitions that have to do with apps, more talent acquisitions and they will do a little bit of all of that, a little bit of buyback and talent acquisition. They will buy tumbler, anyt