Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140425 : comparemela.com

CNBC Closing Bell April 25, 2014

The s p 500 after earnings confirm the Company Continues to bring in huge sums of money but has razorthin profits. Is the street sending a message here to Ceo Jeff Bezos that its time to turn the spigots on and make some real money . If theres trouble at home, is there trouble for the entire economy . Mortgage lending plunging, even though we have become the spring housing season and rates e re main historically low at about 4. 5 . If the housing recovery stalls, what does that mean about the broader economic recovery . Well have a special report later on the closing bell. In the markets, how were shaping up on the last trading session of the week, the Dow Jones Industrial average down triple digits, 147 points at this hour heading for the second down week in three weeks. The s p 500 right now in the red, declines of almost 2 , that was the nasdaq, 1 on the s p 500, the nasdaq behind the three, pressure on amazon and technology stocks. The nasdaq down 74 points p with an hour to go, tyler. Cathy joens, rich peterson from s p capital iq jim kahn from Wealth Management group, Ryan Jacobson from wells fargo advantage funds an our own rick santelli. Let me start with jim from wealth enhancement group. Is this a time for me to try and enhance my wealth or just protect it . Always a time to try and enhance your wealth. We think there are a lot of great opportunities right now so looking at emerging markets, the news is negative, negative, negative. The reality is russia is driving down valuations. All the scare stories out of china driving down valuations. Stocks are cheap in emerging markets and this might be a great opportunity to buy. Rich were looking at technology selloff again. Here we go again, social media, cloud competing stocks, biotechnology. Theres obviously still some room to run in this selloff of the momentum days. You know, given todays downturn were still only about two points away from being positive for the week. The s p 500, id say good earnings season. Financials worth about 3. 3 for the First Quarter numbers, revenue up about 3 . We have some great m a news. Obviously some of those are voicing concerning about the deal making, but year to date its been over a trillion dollars. Youre encouraged by that. Im encouraged because if it gets more deals, but its a sign of confidence. Companies have all this cash, 2 trillion of cash on their balance sheets. Theyre reluctant give it to the government in part. They want to make shareholders more valuable in terms of buybacks, in terms of dividend increases. The deal activity, which, you know, taking place for perhaps ge looking to buy alcots from france or zimmerman for 14 billion. Kathy, fixed income has been an interesting place so far this year. The yields have really come down from the start of the year but not by very much as we look today, i believe the tenyear was up a lit until price, down a little bit in yield to 2. 66 from a little above 2. 70 yesterday. What is the way for me to make money in fixed income over the next three to six months . Well, you know, weve had a good year so far on fixed income, particularly the long bond up about 10 year to date and even the ten year down from over 3 beginning of the year. So it hasnt been that hard so far. I think Going Forward what were concerned about is people getting a little bit out over their skis in terms of taking too much credit risk and so we think still sticking with core bonds, you know, investment grade, high quality bonds a s probably the best way to go. Because right now youre not seeing a lot of great valuation and high yield as other sectors of the market. Brian, your interpretations so far. Halfway through earnings season right now, and it looks like if you add up all the companies we are managing to eke out some profit growth, earnings per share, and that was better than the expectation of negative growth. What sort of significant nams are you getting out of earnings on the broader economy and is it good enough to carry the stock market higher . I dont think that the earnings that were seeing right now are going to be enough to propel us that much higher in the equity markets. It is better than what the expectations were. The expectation was to have a slight contraction of earnings but now that were beating it, my big concern is the longer term outlook for growth. I think it will be difficult to see doubledigit growth rates in earnings, which is whats currently implied by various consensus estimates going into the end of the year. I think that were actually going to see almost a transition in the markets away from what i would refer to as little orphan annie stock where is theyre based on the sun will come out tomorrow, some high expectation about longterm growth as opposed to more into the daddy warbucks stocks, Higher Quality and more growth oriented. There is a transition going from speck laive to quality stocks right now. Rick, explain the week weve just gone through from from where you sit and what are you looking forward to or not looking forward to next week . I know that weather and geopolitics are always huge crutches for market movement. Im a chicago cub fan. I understand the excuses. But if we really take a step back and look at the landscape, flat stocks, lower Interest Rates has been in the stencil for 2014 long before crimea, march 16th, referendum, and i understand these issues are not good issues. But in terms of true market impact, you know, when they change margin on gold, tyler, usually get a whole lot more than a 10 range. I think our guests said it adequately. If you bought the long bond which is about ready to trade under 344, which means the lowest yield since june, youve had a great year. Ten years youve had a pretty good year, fives are basically unchanged on the year. Lets keep it simple. I heard another guest say when it comes to risk were getting a little over our skis. Janet yellin, are you listening . The plan is for everybody to get over their skis and risk naps how they want to fix the system. So, yes, i think its going to continue to be exactly like its been the First Quarter and part of the second for the next several quarters in my opinion, and i think the most important number next week isnt the jobs number on friday. Its the week wednesday look at First Quarter gdp, make all the weather excuses you want. The highside whisperer is 1. 5 . Which actually, rick, comes out on the same day that the Federal Reserve comes out with its statement, kathy, on the fixedincome mark. Rick said here we are making new lows for treasury yields. The yen is rally, gold is ral rallying. The ukraine Political Risk situation or something more worrisome about the u. S. Economy . I think you have a combination of things. First quarter was slower than expected. Globally Economic Growth is slower than expected. Weve got declining monetary indicators in europe and japan. Even in china now. So theres a lot going into it. Slow growth, very low inflation, got talk of Central Banks starting to ease in other countries. Its going to be a slow grind for a while even though we think the economy stars to pick up in the next quarter theres a long way to go from here. You know, jim, today selloff has been pretty worldwide frankly, asia, germany, and a lot of it, according to folks weve been talking to, including cash cas art cashin say its mostly tied into ukraine and concerns heading into the weekend about that hotspot. Do you agree . And how should i filter that particular Pressure Point as well as whats been going on in the middle east with the breakdown of the peace talks into my investing strategy . Yeah. Its really tough to sort of say because washington might invade the ukraine we should sell stocks in vietnam. Doesnt make a lot of sense. It raises the overall risk level for investors investing in emerging markets but ultimately if you believe in the emerging market story, if you believe that people in brazil are getting richer and therefore there will consume more electricity, theyll buy more goods from, you know, the walgreens of brazil, you want to own those stocks. Valuations today look very cheap. We subscribe to bob shulers research that basically says when valuations are cheap longterm expected returns are high. It doesnt matter whats happening in ukraine in the short term. You can even have an independent republic of donetsk and long term that wont impact the growth in vietnam or brazil. As a result, we like to take these types of opportunities as buying opportunities and not be scared to enter the market at great valuations. Folks, thank you very much for joining us this hour on the closing bell exchange. About 50 minutes left to go and the dow, the nasdaq, and the s p all in the red right now. The nasdaq off about 73, the dow by 141 and s p lower as well. And in the week on a down note, coming up, amazon hitting the skids big time despite better than expected earnings. Are investors finally pressuring jeff bezos to turn a bigger profit . Well hear the bull and the bear cases for this stock and whether you should buy this dip, keeping in mind amazon has lost over a fifth of its value just this year. And moving the other way, Royal Caribbean sailing upward, gaining more than 40 in stock market value over the past year. The companys ceo will speak with us exclusively next about how he has steered his companys stock around the industrys highprofile calamities. And well ask him about this crazy new feature on one of his ships. Are passengers really climbing into that little publ . That looks like fun. Id do that. Thats cool. Id do it too. Lets go. I think its debuting in china. Me and you, tyler. Well talk about that. Plus as we just mentioned, tensions mounting with russia over ukraine. Well bring you to up speed on the latest developments which could wreak havoc on the markets and your money. Heading into another tense weekend for geopolitics. Can you start tomorrow . Tomorrow were booked solid. We close on the house tomorrow. Tomorrow we go live. Its a day full of promise. And often, that day arrives by train. Big day today . Even bigger one tomorrow. Csx. How tomorrow moves. [ male announcer ] when fixed income experts. Work with equity experts. Who work with regional experts. Who work with Portfolio Management experts, thats when expertise happens. Mfs. Because there is no expertise without collaboration. Mfs. Are we still on for tomorrow . Tomorrow. Tomorrow is full of promise. We can come back tomorrrow. And we promise to keep it that way. Csx. How tomorrow moves. What a day. Cant wait til tomorrow. Man we know when parents and teachers work together. Woman our schools get stronger. Man as superintendent of public education, thats been Tom Torlaksons approach. Woman torlakson has supported legislation to guarantee spending decisions about our education tax dollars are made by parents, teachers and the local community. And not by sacramento politicians. And we need to keep that legislation on track. Man so tell Tom Torlakson to keep fighting for local control of School Funding decisions. It is a bit of a bumpy end to the week, bears watching, of course, the industrials off about 143 at 16,357, nasdaq down about 1. 8 . A lot of that has to do with amazon. Well talk more about that one later. Its off 75 points at 4,073, and the s p 5001,861, down 16 points or a littleless than 1 . Sarah . Utilities. The cruise line industry was no stranger to rocky headlines over the last year. Several reports of illness, outbreak on various ships and mechanical failures that left passengers powerless for days. You thought that took a toll on business, think again. Over the course of the past 52 weeks, Royal Caribbeans stock has sailed higher by 44 . With us now in an exclusive on cnbc is Royal Caribbeans chairman and ceo, richard feign. Welcome back. Nice to see you again. Thank you. Good to be here. It sounds like the First Quarter had some rough spots in it, you had to get more promotipr promotion promotional, but at the same time as you raised results yesterday you raised your forecast for the rest of the year. Does that mean youre not going to have to spend so much on promotions and discounting and that bookings are looking better . No. As you say, its really been a very good year. The timing between quarters has shifted but actually we keep raising our forecast because frankly were on a roll and things are looking pretty nice in our business. I want to ask you specifically about europe, because off nice chunk of business. I think about a quarter, maybe a lilt less of your capacity. Its ban struggle for some time, but yields actually turned higher. What sort of opportunity do you see in europe . Well, as you say, its very interesting because the European Market has been suffering much more than the just market. And really starring in the Third Quarter of last year thats turned around. Were seeing tremendous growth. Were getting more volume and a doubledigit increases in price over last year. So were really looking at europe as an exciting time for us. How much more have you had to promote and put some hard numbers on it if you wouldnt mind, and then another thing that i noticed in one of the reports is that people seem to be spending less on board, on ship when they go cruising. Why is that and what does that reflect to you . Well, we are doing more promotion but only in one mark, the caribbean market, and there, although our volume is up by 13 , our prices are flat or down just a smidgen. So that market we are working harder at. Why is that . Hoo but thats more why is that . And thats a big market for you. Its a very big market for us. It consistently is a good market. And what does happen is we are a floating business so when that market is good as it has been, we brought ships back and probably grew it a little too much in the short term. But thats, again, the beauty of our business. We can shift that around. And when it comes to onboard revenue, actually weve been doing quite well there. Last year we had a 7. 6 increase in yield from our onboard revenue, and that year were looking at another good year of that because weve put so much focus on providing things that people want, and theyre enjoying it and buying more, so our business is up. How would you characterize the Public Perception right now . I mentioned some of the negative headlines with illness, the kos ka concordia, the fire. This clearly resonates and makes frontpage stories and images. What does it look like now . Have you managed to turn a corner . I think we really have shown first of all, i would say were doing a lot bet we are the public than we are with the media. So i think the media has a somewhat more negative perception. But most of the public are feeling better as time goes on, its better and better. I think we still have to do a better job of communicating all that cruising has, but the numbers are very powerful. The public is buying at higher prices and greater volumes so its clear that were overcoming any negative perception. The images are powerful, too, and obviously the media reflect pictures of people who have not had a great time on cruises. I realize thousands more have a wondertime with it. Lets talk about your move the china. How big a market is that likely to be for you . Youre going to second maybe your biggest ship over there i believe next year. Its a real exciting thing, and this is the first time anybodys made a move so aggressively into china. The result of this is that we will carry more mainland chinese out of china than the whole company carried in total when i first joined. Were going at it with our newest ship, a very exciting ship as you say, one of our biggest, and the market there is just enormous. Were just scratching the surface. Its fascinating to see how fast its grown because we started there and we were worried whether we would appeal to the chinese, but theres a very large and growing middle class and the result is its also one of our best markets today and i think lit absorb even this increase. You mentioned this new ship. It has this crazylooking bubble glass capsule coming out, 300 feet above the ocean. Ive never seen anything like this. Both tyler andry intrigued and ready to sign up. Where did you come up with this idea . Well, i think it is wonderful, and we were hoping for exactly that. I think one of the things im so proud of at Royal Caribbean is the innovation that our people feel empowered to try. And this is an exciting concept, this capsule will hold 16 people and as you say give 360degree moves. It moves 360 degrees way above the ship, way above the ocean. Thats the kind of ideas that you generate when you empower your people to say, yeah, lets try something new. And the response has been terrific. I have to say when you showed your teaser before, even the cameraman here said, wow, that looks cool. It does look cool. It looks a little different than probably the cruise industry looked when you joined in 1979. Some amazing change. Of all the places, mr. Fain, youve cruised, whats your favorite . Wow. Well, you know, i have four children and i love them equally and we have 41 ships and i love them all equally. Im not picking favorites. Thats a good one. Isle take it. Thats fine. Mr. Fain, thank you very much, and continued smooth sailing to you. Thanks for having me. Weve got about 39 minutes left before the closing bell. Lets take a look at the dow, off 141, nasdaq down by 71, and there you see the dow and the s p is limping to the close as well, sarah. Its been an earnings story this entire week. Guess what, were about halfway there. It has been an enlightening earnings season so far. Coming up, we tally what weve seen and then the big names that have yet to record. And u. S. Tensions escalating with russia over ukraine. How far will russias president Vladimir Putin take the already tense situation . All stations come over to mission a for a final go. This is for real this time. Step seven point two one two. Verify and lock. Command is locked. Five seconds. Three, two, one. Standing by for capture. The most Innovative Software on the pl

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