Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20130925 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20130925

Charter peter sands is in the house, the state of the Global Economy and how they view whats going on in europe, the nonsense in d. C. Over the budget and debt ceiling. Were not finished. The hits keep coming. Cisco ceo John Chambers here exclusively. A lot of tech news. Well get to that coming up in the next hour. Googles eric schmidt, our special guest host in one hour. Hell be with me on set. Well talk with John Chambers along with eric schmidt. That will be interesting getting them to talk together. So much to talk about google and a lot more. Well get into technology and innovation. Wow, tech titan talk, huh . Yeah. Next hour. Lets get to the markets right now. As maria said, four down days. This could be the fifth. The dows down 42 points. Walmart, a drag late this afternoon. Well talk about why in a little bit. Theyve come off the lows, though. Now down 42 points. Questions on inventory now. Nasdaq is down to 37 64. S p is following suit as well, down 2. 50 points. Dow and s p in jeopardy of a fivecard losing streak. They could lose their spot in the wild card playoffs. We havent had this all year. Lets put you up walmart. Walmart had an outsized impact on the dow in the middle of the day. There was a report in bloomberg that perhaps the retail giant was cutting orders because of rising inventories. Courtney reagan talked to well matter and said that was a misleading story, they are constantly managing inventories. Remember, target missed and some Dollar Stores having problems recently. The low end is having some problems. It did have an impact. I said it had a broader impact. Consumer names in the dow all dropped on that. Theyve come back a little bit. Nike, procter gamble, johnson johnson, all moved to the downside. Ive been calling it fiscal fear fatigue. A lot of people are out there saying, look, the republicans and white house are still so far apart. Why get ahead of that . The traders feel the government will stay open, theyll make a deal but maybe it will bleed into october. Were getting low volume, low volatility days overall. Take a look at the s p 500. I know people were concerned about the stall. Were 1. 6 off the historic high. That was one week ago. Weve had a bunch this year in february, august, april. Those are the white circles. Same thing, dropped 2 , 3 , and then resumed. Dont panic. Russell 2000, hit an intraday high. Shinzo abe will be upstairs. Ill let you know if he says anything interesting. Looking forward to that. Lets talk about todays Market Action on closing bell exchange, David Ellison from the hennessey funds, michael from destination wealth management, Peter Anderson from Congress Asset management. Welcome, everybody. Erin, weve lost all of the gains from last week and the feds stunning no taper concept. We have no momentum going into earnings reporting season next week. What do you make of all this . I think as bob said, we see low volume pullback. Weve seen a lot of cash go into money market funds so it looks like cash is just sitting on the sidelines. Investors are waiting for that pull back to jump in. With the incredible volatility weve seen in bonds and yields going up 50 basis points, back down 50 basis points. But these levels trading at 50 1 2 times next years earnings. Lets wait. What would it take to get that money back . Is it a significant pullback . Something you would expect to push the money over the edge . Erin says its sitting there in cash or money markets. Yeah, its a pullback. I think investors are basically waiting for the markets to dip down. The bias is on the upside. The sentiment is still positive in the United States. You know, i long for the good old days when fundamentals matter. I know you wrote a column recently on cnbc. Com talking about fundamentals. Fundamentals are fine. Theyre not great. But the sentiment really is moving towards equities. You go to bonds, its a losing proposition. Commodities have been a disaster. Money market pay on negative net 3 . I think investors are waiting for a pullback. I think when you see the market go down, you see market buyers coming in. You dont think the fed will taper at all this year. Why . The fed is really keeping us on our toes with that surprise last week. And as much as people love to disagree with me on this, i think the fed is watching markets. They cant come out and tell you that directly. I think as soon as an official makes a statement, they probably go back and watch this tv station and get a sense of a real polling. Its an instant polling mechanism. You can come back, watch the market react in virtually real time to what youre doing and saying. I think the fed has finally caught on that the actions theyre taking, this socalled forward looking guidance. And thats borrowed, frankly, from corporate earnings, you cant have halfbaked guidance the way the fed is trying to do. You either have to give full disclosure or no disclosure at all. No forward guidance. I think whats going to happen is the fed go ahead. No, please finish. Well, i think whats going to happen is the fed is going to say to themselves, look, we either have to give even more disclosure, which i dont think is going to be the result. I think theyre going to kind of crawl back into their media cave and wait and just give formal announcements and not give this kind of, you know, press conferences two or three times a week we have officials yeah the issue is so many voices in the fed. We have so many governors and officials coming out and coming out with their own opinions. David ellison, lets talk Fourth Quarter here because were about to end the third quarter. Earnings will flow out. The last time we spoke with the ceo of walmart on this program a couple weeks ago, they were not expecting any great shakes from the holiday upcoming season. Is that going to be a positive for the markets . What do you think about the Fourth Quarter, David Ellison . I think the market is waiting for the third quarter, the Fourth Quarter. Of course the guidance for 2014. I think when we get that, the companies doing better are going to go up and companies not doing as well are going to go down. I think there are Companies Going to do better. Earnings are a big part of why the market hes gone up and earnings will continue to get better because the economys generally Getting Better and companies are continually trying to get better. I think theres a lot of talk. At the end of the day, companies have a lot of flexibility. Sales arent there, they can cut costs. If the revenues arent there, they can drive it to the bottom line. The companies have a lot more flexibility than people think or giving them credit for, which is why the market generally wants to go up. You guys at s p capital iq, the handicap for earnings. Quantify that. Going for the year were looking right now, the estimate for 2013 is 5. 8. 5. 8 . On earnings . On earnings, the s p 500. We started the year at about 7. 50 . So, the analysts have really ratcheted down. One thing last quarter, we didnt have as much of an upside surprise. It was one of the smallest quarters for upside surprise. They usually estimate 5 , 4. 5 . Last quarter was 3 . And revenue has been soft the last couple of quarters even though they met their bottom line. That happens again . Yes. If we see another quarter of declining revenue, thats a big issue for everybody. Another thing were looking at, maybe postponing tapering even further. We have a lot of ceos on today. Im sure youll ask about that very issue. Thank you for joining us today. Appreciate your thoughts. Heading toward the close, about 50 minutes left. Again, remember, we got japanese Prime Minister shinzo abe ringing the closing bell today. Stick around for that. Hes live in the gallery right there. Dow down 38 points off the lows of the session. Well talk with dow chemical ceo and find out whats in store for his 50 billion company and what hes seeing in the Global Economy as well. Breaking news. Jpmorgan facing billions in fines or billions in some kind of a settlement. What does it mean for the stock and its shareholders . Should you still be investing in this particular bank . Both sides coming up. After the bell, googles executive chairman eric schmidt with me for the whole hour, talking about security, google glass and his plan for beating out the competition. He says he has a plan to create jobs for the u. S. Economy. Americans take care of business. They always have. They always will. Thats why you take charge of your future. Your retirement. Ameriprise advisors can help you like theyve helped millions of others. Listening, planning, working one on one. To help you retire your way. With confidence. Thats what Ameriprise Financial does. Thats what they can do with you. 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The story we heard they were cutting orders. They told us that was misleading. It begs the bigger question whether the economy is still weak and maybe the fed was right to hold off on the taper. Rick santelli is with me from chicago with our bond report right now. When you consider that kind of a story and then as we get ready for earnings and s p capital iq telling us theyre still expecting softness in revenue, the order, the top line for major corporations out here, what do you think . I mean, is ben bernanke right when he says they shouldnt taper because the growth is not sustainable right now . Well, i think the latter part of that statement is for sure true. Any type of sizeable, Sustainable Growth in the economy isnt there. Consider this, bill. Walmart is roughly now up 9 on the year. Tiffanys, on the other hand, is up four times as much. Its up 35 . Think about some of the big stories about how over the last five years, sams club, for example, has dropped a lot of employees even though theyre opening up new stores. What i garner by all that is that the economy is weak and the feds plans and many of the governments lack of plans arent helping the situation. And i think that the fed probably ought to consider some of the more structural issues. Many of these programs benefit the high end. You know, while one seems a little silly to me. All the plans are designed to help the middle class, but whether its earnings or many of the other aspects of the economy that affect the affluent, they are benefiting from many of these programs. They need to reverse this course on qe. You hold to the ar ument they are you hold to the argument an unintended consequence of the quantitative easing is its benefiting the few, but is that reason enough to start tapering at this point . I think it is. When it comes away from it, strip away the fluff, were arguing about continuing a program that adds huge amounts of unintended consequence as their Balance Sheet approaches 4 trillion but the benefit analysis lays an egg. Rick, thanks much. The tenyear at 6. 26 . Continues to move down this week. This week the Clinton Global Initiative is kicking off in new york. A number of ceos are here, including dow chemical. Dow investors have been rewarded the last three months. Stock up better than 20 just in the threemonth period. Joining me is the chairman and ceo of dow chemical, andrew liveris. Thank you for joining me. Good to see you. You have a great Vantage Point in terms of whats seeing in china and the implications of it. How would you characterize Business Today . Give us the hot spots and the weak spots in the globe. I think the china improvement is definitely there. China has been soft for about a year, so the last month or so its been better. Still not know where near it was. I would tell you europe is flat lining with a little good stuff out of germany, which is hopeful post the elections it continues. Lets call that status quo. Japan has been a surprise positive. Southeast asia and latin america are their usual selves with brazil slow. The u. S. Has been the bright spot. I would say most of this year the u. S. Has been better than what we had planned for and it shows in our results and our equity price. Of course, im very concerned with whats going on in washington. Because we could proceed verbally shoot ourselves in the foot again. I want to get back to the debt ceiling. You mentioned japan. You have shinzo abe, the Prime Minister here at the New York Stock Exchange today. You know, that market has, of course, been on fire. A lot of money moving into japan. Do you think the economic policies will work . Do you think thats sustainable . I think abenomics, version 2. 0, will work. Wooif been big in japan. Its been an extraordinary summer. I was over there in april. Business confidence is up. It doesnt take much. When you finally get confidence, and thats been 15 years of gloom, i really do believe their export engine is reawakening. Theyve always had great companies. Theyre starting to dot tough stuff. This merger that was announced yesterday or today, its a good example of restructuring. In my sector theyre starting to take out capacity. Finally, highcost capacity that never should have been there. I think theyre starting to enter the real Global Economy again. Okay. I mean, from agriculture to technology, where do you think is the big Growth Engine for dow chemical at this point . Where does the growth come from looking out five years . Well, so, i think the two buckets and were at the intersection of sciences, biology, chemistry and physics, material science, lightweight materials for automotive and transportation in general, Electronic Materials for faster, cheaper device, the ones we use in our mobile phones, et cetera, and then agriculture, biology, food, nutrition. Weve introduced this new canola oil thats taken 1. 5 billion pounds of fat out of the american diet already, just this year, by having none of the bad fats. I think the demand drivers of the world collapsing in on each other, health and nutrition, alternative energies, lightweight materials and consumerism of the right kind. Sure. Now, youve recently announced investment of more than 1 billion, building two plants in louisiana. This is something the president is trying to do and have others do as well, invest in this country in manufacturing. What kind of policies would you like to see to encourage more of that . Well, i mean, all of the above Energy Policy and responsible development of our shell gas fines has been very important. Weve been part of the discussion of how to optimize use of all the energies available to the United States, with shell gas being the big plus. Were putting in place 5 billion, maria, in u. S. Gulf coast between texas and louisiana. Theres 1 billion referred to as most recent announcements. That will create thousands and thousands of jobs. Job multiplier of mine industry is one to five. For every job i create, i create five around me. That creates 20 of value around me. This is the kind of information the president and the country needs. I think we are right at the cusp of seeing a reawakening of the American Manufacturing engine. No doubt about it. Im glad you mentioned the 5 billion because this has all been coming together for dow chemical. Real quick, andrew, in terms of health care and in terms of this fight over the debt ceiling, what should be done . I mean, you havent announced major changes to your health care plan, right . A lot of people feel its too expensive and necessity athey a employees off this. What is the answer and how does it relate to whats going on in the debt ceiling debate n your view . Well, the last part first. There should be distinct and different discussions. And to get functionality it into our conversation. No one should be held hostage to default the government. We should not be in that conversation. It creates all this uncertainty. This should go behind closed doors and get out of the public domain. This should be a negotiation not a public squabble. It creates uncertainty and the greatest headwind we all face, if this continues, doesnt matter what policy they attach to the discussion, its a precedent that should not be set. Im of the camp in the Business Community that says, look, get behind closed doors, settle your differences and dont make one hostage to the other. If you want a debate on the Affordable Care act, have a debate on the Affordable Care act and bring it to a vote if you need to. From our companys perspective, the aca is low impact. Weve done all the right things over the last decade or so. Frankly, its not an issue for us. But having said that, its becoming an issue for us because of attaching it to the debt ceiling conversation. Yeah, very good point. Andrew, thanks for joining us. Well see you soon. Thank you, maria. Always good to be with you. Well be watching your commitment and developments at cgi this week. Good to see you. Good to see you, too.

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