Transcripts For BLOOMBERG With All Due Respect 20160926

Stage for a 90 minute showdown moderated by lester holt. Stakes are in some ways extremely high for both candidates and their campaigns. The polls shows the race now as tight as a tick. 43 new cycles left until eday, democratic strongholds like pennsylvania and colorado may be in play. Mark nationally, a big Bloomberg Politics survey shows clinton and trump tied at 46 in a twoway national matchup. Add in the thirdparty candidates and trump is up by two points. Amid an expectations arms race ahead of the debate, half the people we pulled nationally thought clinton would do better on the stage, 40 compare. We should note that while other National Polls shows essentially news has a poll showing clinton leading outside the margin of error. John, what does Hillary Clinton have to do to win the day . John she has to avoid a major screwup that would cause her to be the story of tomorrow. Her biggest problem at this point, from everything we could tell, is there is not enough democratic enthusiasm for her. To me, one of those things that could happen if she performs well thats part of what she could do. Other things she could do is explain with great clarity and connection why she wants to be president of the United States and get democrats riled up for her. Mark i think destroying trump, if the moment occurs, would be fine. I think the most important thing for her is for her to be comfortable, natural and likable, all of which she could do. The other thing is, i think, she needs to give people a sense of what she could do to improve peoples lives as president. I think the biggest problem she may have this evening is shes thought about it so much. She is so wellprepared and shes proven over time, she has done well in debates. She has never debated a republican in the president ial level. Has done more oneonone debates that Hillary Clinton. Preparation has served her well in all past debates. She is comfortable. You can over prepare for sure, but if you were the kind of person in which preparation makes you comfortable then prepare all you want. She knows what she needs to do. Mark off the trail for the most part since the event in florida last week. We understand she wants to prepare but a lot of candidates like to go out to public events, remind themselves why they are running for president. She has not done that so we dont really know what her mind is like. I asaw her last week and she was in a very good place. Like an athlete, you can go down without any strategies. We will see if she comes out ready and prepared which is a difficult thing to do. So, we talked about what clinton needs to do. What is trumps mission tonight . John i know you have a theory about this and i dont think it is that controversial. There are a lot of people in america, a lot of republicans, who look at him and dont really know if he has the temperament or knowledge of the world to be president. All of those things he has to somehow do. You needs to think smart enough, no one up not everything in the world and he cannot lose his cool. Mark do not lose his cool, act in a president ial way and not be tripped up. The other thing that is increasingly important and i think we will see a lot tonight is he needs to talk about the core issues that got him support that are not immigration and trade. They are washington must change and we need to fight on behalf of the American People to create jobs. Those are issues that clinton cannot compete on. She cannot compete on saying washington is not working for the middle class, i can change it. I think he will talk about that tonight. John it has to be more than the change has to be something more than merely im not crooked hillary. That is not going to be enough. He has to describe what the change will look like and have that that is something that is susceptible. Both thes get into metaphor and reality. The challenge trump faces if he says things tonight that are not true. There are so many examples from both. One simple thing he said lester holt is a democrat, a republican. How could he say such a thing that is just black and white factually incorrect . I dont think he knew what lester holts Voter Registration. Mark he asserted he was a democrat. You are telling me the media is not democratic . Mark he is a moderated at the reserves the right to be fairly and it was wrong. It is a metaphor for his frequent stating things in public incorrectly. Im asking you how someone who was running for president cant moderator is ae democrat which is incorrect . I think donald trump is saying the media is filled with people mark he said democrat. Should we ask him his Voter Registration . Mark he said he is a democrat. The thing that concerns us is not the moderators themselves because they will be seen as fair and evenhanded. What bothers us more is the very public and very coordinated attempt. Mark the Clinton Campaign is working hard to make sure if trump does not tell the truth, he is held accountable. I understand why they did it. He has done it more. I believe tonight this could be a problem for him. He must tell the truth or, if not, Hillary Clinton will hold him accountable. John she has lied unquestionably. Of campaign has been moments this regarding the truth or outright lying. The New York Times had a story of how money times he lied just last week. Whether lester holt should be hillary checker, or clinton, one or two of them will be the fact checker. If this is a liar, liar debate for donald trump, it will be bad for them. Mark even when it is not at his advantage. Whatever it is, he will be smart not to do it tonight. John understatement. The conventional wisdom is strong debate performances help candidates less than bad debate performances can hurt them. If you have to choose one thing, and again, lets focus on one issue, what is likely to give Hillary Clinton the most trouble . Mark i wonder if lester holt will bring it up tonight. Her emails and the foundation. She still has not addressed it. She still has not addressed why she had the server and what was wrong with doing it. I think she has never been comfortable talking about it. She is had plenty of time to practice. If that comes up and trump is deft in handling it, that could be the moment of the night because she is so uncomfortable. John i think this will be a short conversation because we agree mark if trump brings it up, i dont think she has to address it. The format tonight is pretty looseygoosey. If lester brings it up, she has to address it. If trump brings it up, i am not sure she does. John in the end, we agree about this that whatever you think are the substantive problems in these areas, she has not been cleaned, crisp, convincing talking about them. On a couple of occasions, she has gotten close but not fully there. That is the thing that a lot of eyes will be on her. The trustworthiness is a big problem. Mark for those voters who dont like that aspect of her, it goes to washington business as usual and career politicians. That is the issue in which she has never proven she can handle the complexity. John lets ask the same question in reverse about donald trump. Whats one issue lets put aside the question of his lying lets focus on what could be his kryptonite tonight. Mark there are so many that would be on the list for a normal candidate. I think the problem for him i dont think lester last how much who ther mill costs or Prime Minister of bolivia is i think the problem is if he makes a factual error that is just he does not know. John that is one problem. Another potential pitfall is what we addressed earlier when he said he could lose his cool. There is been one topic around all the controversies that has undone him that he is not been able to resist rising to the base in a harsh way his business. That is why he attacked judge curiel out of nowhere. Trump, it is the one place where he seems to be so defensive about it. His Business Record. I think she will hit him on that and it he goes ballistic on that, it could be a horrible moment for him. Mark so much of the effort to disqualify mitt romney was to go at his Business Record and that bane capital was not a good thing for working people. Sayingnton people is they have not been paying attention to the foundation against for policy. It will be interesting if she goes back route. There was a nomination debate where they came after him on his Business Record and he did not handle it very well. John never does. We will have complete pregame and postgame coverage of this president ial debate live from Hofstra University at 8 30 p. M. Eastern. It will livestream on twitter. ,f you want to watch us there watch us. This is never been done before so check it out. Next, we will have the latest Bloomberg Politics national poll. We will be right back. Mark we are back live on the campus of Hofstra University. They are helicopters flying overhead and lots of students and others cheering. This is the place where Hillary Clinton and donald trump will take the debate stage and duke it out. We will get a better understanding of the candidatess strengths and rolled full durability is by looking at the national poll. The last time we pulled nationally in august, clinton had a sixpoint lead. Some of trumps improved standing is the fact he has consolidated the republican vote but there is another place where trump has gained which may concern the Clinton Campaign. The democratic nominee appears to be struggling with young voters. Clinton gets only 40 of those 18 to 34 that we surveyed across the country. Trump gets 36 . Gary johnson is getting 11 . President obama won more than 3 5 of young voters in his First Campaign and reelection. What does this mean for the debate tonight and the challenges for Hillary Clinton . John it means we are headed to a very close race. I think there is a chance both candidates will do well tonight and will have a very close race. This problem with young voters is really significant. She is 20 points off Barack Obamas performance. Even if you take all of the year he johnson vote, a lot of that is millennial vote. She is still nine points off Barack Obamas performance and that is a problem. Mark that is where they are telling pollsters. Whether the contributions from those voters is a problem. It crystallizes what we were talking about before of what she needs to do before. Young voters need to hear how will you make my life better . How can you create an economy with real jobs . How will you reduce College Costs . She has plans, but can she talk about that in a way not just on the standard television, but on twitter, our coverage all the way to the young people learning about this debate. Can she break through with them . John very important and the central topic. There are other questions we asked that captured narratives that each candidate will try to combat tonight. Hillary clinton still facing an uphill battle to get voters to trust her. Herof likely voters said truthfulness was either poor or fair. That is compared with 61 for donald trump. Trumps challenge is to prove he has the knowledge of the economy and world events that it takes to be president. Only 55 of likely voters said trumps intelligence was excellent or good, compared to 72 for clinton. Same question you asked me, what do you think these stats mean for the debate and Broader Campaign . Mark i dont think the trustworthy thing will be addressed tonight. I think it will be addressed by her demeanor. This has been a challenge throughout her time in politics. Can she give people a sense of what she is like . With trump, john it is a huge deal. There are too many voters that think he is a stupid hothead. If you can fix stupid hothead, he could be closer to being elected. Mark go back to the way he was at the press conference, the Anderson Cooper townhall. If he could do that for 90 minutes, i dont think he could lose it. We will preview the debate with two journalists who have been covering the issues the hallway through right after this. John joining us now are Bloomberg Businessweek reporter josh green and a political reporter for the washington post. Hi, guys. Everything all right . The Trump Campaign right now forget o about the debate at this moment feeling pretty good with the changing picture across the country. They are feeling so good right now. Back in august, it looked like it was over. Very few paths forward. It did not look like you would ever recover from these controversies and his fallen the polls. National and in a lot of battleground states, tied if not beating Hillary Clinton. If you look at when trump has been at his best in the anmaries, he was sure talking about his big lead in the polls. As of this morning, he has a twopoint lead in the new Bloomberg Politics polls. He has a lead. He tweeted out the poll this morning about 10 minutes after we put it out. I think he is full of confidence coming in and i think you should be based on where he was and where he is today. Mark the reality has been aggressive on social media to try to set the tone. I know the Clinton Campaign has that operation. Does the Trump Campaign . Jenna if you count the Trump Campaign manager going on television this morning and yelling at the reporters for being too negative on twitter. They are closely watching what people are saying, what people are doing. It is not the same sort of operation that you see with the Clinton Campaign. Mark the volume tonight will be massive. They will jump on everything on social media. Do you find the clinton people to be the mirror image of the trump staff being upbeat . Josh i think they seem reasonably confident, although there has been a lot of working the refs. The idea that we will shame and badger the media into backchecking in realtime. Mark no one has ever done as much as they did. En on we just talked to j the way up who set it may be an exciting debate or more reserved but trump will still be lying. The message being it is up to us to call out those lies. Mark i think they have done a good a job as anyone else in equalizing how the press is seeing this race. May have achieved some of their goals they have achieved some of those goals. Josh i think they are playing by these ordinary set of rules. I dont think it will shape the view. If trump wanders off stage and tweet something in the middle of the debate, that could overwhelm everything. You just dont know what will happen. John a rumor that might actually happen. What do you know about that . Jenna anything with the Trump Campaign, we will wait and see if it happens. Mark if it is a tie or seen as a winner, i bet. Jenna he likes to have the final say. John if you are the Clinton Campaign and ucyou see our poll, she was targeting millennials last week which was empty, vast, how does that implements what you are trying to get the influence what you are trying to get done here . Josh you have to set across a clear set of opinions aimed at millennials. If this guy is elected president , here are the things that will happen. The very important point she has the drive home is this is not just about donald trump. If you are a gary johnson reporter if you look at the bloomberg fourway poll, that is the margin of difference between a tie race and trump in the lead, a bunch of millennials going over especially to gary johnson. She have to send the message there is something really big and you need to support me even if im not bernie sanders. Mark clinton has a pretty robust travel schedule. No matter what happens they have a plan. What is the trump plan for the rest of the week . Jenna he plans on being out there frequently. They are serving up a lot of these plans so we can see a lot of what we have seen the past few weeks. Regular policy speeches where he tries to lay out more specifics on these broad ideas that he has had an big rallies. Big rallies in battleground states which is really when he is happiest. Mark you are americas leading scholar of stephen. He has not done any interviews as far as i know. What is your sense of his role . Josh he is sitting at trumps right hand trying to focus all of trumps manic energy into a way that would be kind of productive. They are not going to weird states like california or red states they will win. They are focused on a set of swing states. They are focused on a clear message that clinton is fundamentally corrupt, incompetent. All of that is what they are doing. And jenna reeves johnson, thank you. Next, we have a surrogate showdown after this. You already are the oldest president history. Some of your stock staff say you were tired after your encounter with mr. Mondale. I recall that president kennedy who had to go for days on end with very best very little sleep during the cuban missile crisis, is there any doubt in your mind that you would be able to function in such circumstances . Mr. Reagan not at all. I want you to know that also i will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponents youth and inexperience. [laughter] mark that was ronald reagan, one of the great comeback debates and come back lines of president ial debate history. Barr, ame on set, peter professor of economics in Public Policy at uc irvine. Welcome. Talk to us about what you think donald to tell the American People regarding his economic vision. If you contrast the candidates it is the clearest choice in the race. You have one candidate and Hillary Clinton wanting to raise taxes and raise regulations but mineest put the coal industry out of business, stifle the fossil fuel industry, oil and gas and keep the trade deficit in our mess, all of that points to the wrong direction. The opposite of growth. We have had 15 years of 2 sub2 growth. Before that we had 3. 5. Mr. Trump on the other hand cut taxes, cut regulation, unleash our energy sector, and balance our trade. All those point in the growth direction. What we have been trying to do is articulate that a little clearly. The problem has been the news been tomorrow all this has taking off. The selection ultimately will depend on two things, the economy and jobs and national security. John donald trump often does things that drive the new cycle and take them away from his performance his economic message. Clinton when she calls half of america probablye, that was the worst gaffe of the campaign. So take my point here. John all that we have conceded, mr. Trump has said controversial things to distract from his core economic message. How confident are you a he will stay focused and make it clear, compelling start case for the for what he was rolling out. I have one word. Mexico. He was relaxed and president ial. Relaxed and president ial and she is going to be defensive. His question that the press had not been able to get to with her related to the corruption of the Clinton Campaign, libya, whatever. That will be the contrast. What can you explain donald trump would like to do with the Affordable Care act . Peter get rid of it. But first of all lets talk about what is happening to it. It is basically imploding under the obama administration. The big insurers are pulling out. Mark what would our Health Care System look like if donald trump has his way . Peter lets see when he gets there. Mark there is a system in place that a lot of americans like. Peter i do not know anyone who likes obamacare. Says its get rid of this thing that is in place that congress has passed and you are than he hascific about what the Health Care System would look like under donald trump. Peter that is the first start. It is a fair question but a lot of people ask about specifics. What mr. Trump is going to do in the white house is proceed in a measured way as a business person with compassion running government. I will give you a good example with deregulation. Talking about reducing regulations. We have a 2 trillion price tag every year in terms of cost. That comes out of the white house, that is not trump. On an 18 trillion gdp. Everyone wants to say what i going to cut, we will do that at the interagency level, every head of every agency will look at every single regulation. What is off the table is anything that impacts Public Health and safety or what the congress mandates but after that we look at it as a costefficient way and we will do the same thing with health care and every other policy. Mark i hope we hear more specifics with all due respect from donald trump. Not on health. Appreciate it. Lets go inside the spin room to hear from the clinton perspective. Thanks for joining us. Congressman, x fine to me what has happened in the campaign over the last three weeks that has caused the race to be tighter, how do you see the dynamics there . Going you see the holes up and down. That has been the case and that will stay tight till towards the end. My sense is that the American People are trying to make the decisions. Tonight will be very important but i feel pretty good. If Hillary Clinton has a chance to be hillary she will get to talk about the things that she gets to do. She does not want to start the way that donald trump said hamad give tax cuts to the rich and hubby gets to the middle class. He is saying start in the middle give them the chance to be the job creators. If they have income, if they have a disposable income that they can use to pay for college and by that home, someone has to is howhe home and that america becomes greater than it is right now. And the polls show it thedotal evidence shows it, Clinton Campaign admits it that Hillary Clinton has a big problem with young voters. She is trailing in our poll off by 20 points on Barack Obamas formance with audience of millennials in 2012. What did she need to do to ignite enthusiasm on the part of millennia voters . If mondale voters vote they are voting for Hillary Clinton. It is up to Ellery Clinton to make sure that those young voters and my three daughters are excited and want to come out. When they do decide to vote they vote for Hillary Clinton. It is up to Hillary Clinton to make sure our Young Americans understand that under Hillary Clinton you can talk about a Debt Free College education where you will not come out of a fouryear College Education with this, saddled with this debt that makes it impossible to dream this big dreams and Hillary Clinton has a great plan there. She is talking about letting students refinance the college that, something republicans allow refused to allow status to do. That is a good thing. The bad thing is that they do not want to vote for donald trump. That is about about thing for donald trump. We have to get them to go out and vote. Do you know about how Hillary Clinton would like to change the Affordable Care act . Build on the success, make it better, hopefully we will have a congress that will work with our next president and try to improve it. The difficulty over these last several years i have experienced since 2010. 13 2013. Have any like specifics about how the program would need to change to be better than it is from your point of view and hers . Rep. Becerra yeah. One of the things we have to do is prevent drug prices from continuing to skyrocket. One of the biggest Cost Increases is skyrocketing Prescription Drug prices. Some of it you cant avoid because there are new drugs and they are barely coming on the market. Some of it you can avoid like the gouging that is taking place by some of these parasites and people who i can all your sites. They are making a huge profit off of old drugs that used to next 750one day in the for the same pill. That kind of parasitic activity where you care about profits and a people, that we can avoid. Most of the industry recognizes they have a good product. We could make it work. That will keep costs down. She wants to make sure that we ensure that there are a number of insurers in each marketplace so you can have competition and make sure they are competing to get those consumers to buy. What you want to do is build on the 20 million americans who so far have got Health Insurance as a result. I congressional district, have seen the largest drop in uninsured throughout the country. Of any congressional district. Mark thank you so much. Good luck tonight to both sides. Next we hear from the veteran of all veterans, debate moderators jim lehrer. If you are washing watching us in washington, d c, you can listen on Bloomberg Radio 99. 1 fm. John those who know how hard it is an daunting to moderate one of these events as those who have done it before. Our colleague mark we can and to a guy who is done it 12 times in a couple of election years in the past. Handled all of the president ial debates. That would be the great jim lehrer of pbs. Jim it was between george h. W. Bush and mike dukakis. I am pleased to welcome you to this first president ial debate of the 1988 campaign. The Debate Commission had just been formed. Up till then the debates were run by the league of women voters. They had the king the thing fell apart because there i knowlot of reasons about second and third hand but a lot of it had to do with they could not agree on moderators. Moderators had the old system where you had a moderator than you had three journalists analysts and they could not agree on anybody. They had hundreds of names that were submitted and the candidates, we tried to pick and choose and the whole thing fell apart. Other problems i guess, too. And so it was suggested why dont they set up the Debate Commission so this was formed. Janet brown was the executive director. She still is. And ed fouey who was at cbs and the second of producer for the Debate Commission and i knew it had he called me and asked me to moderate the debate. Ares he said the rules that you get to ask one question at the beginning and then the journalist, the panelist do the other. And then just referee and keep pretty much what it was about. That is how it started. A moderator for the next one and they called me and asked, one thing led to another. Even thea point where commission had problems, the candidates were still trying to influence who the moderators were. I did not matter who the candidates were or their handlers, they could not come to an agreement very easily on who the moderators should be but they could always agree on me or some reason. It wasnt because i was wonderful or anything like that. Thetime, they, it was clintondole debates and they had agreed on me to moderate the first of eight. There were only going to be too president ial and one Vice President ial. Then they could not agree on who was going to do the other ones so they called me in the middle of the night, i was in Colonial Williamsburg doing something and they asked me, could you just do all of them, we can agree on you. That go to bed and quit yelling at each other. Mark our thanks to the great jim lehrer. Two Campaign Reporters give us the scoop on how the senate its have prepared. Yet another word from our sponsor. I think mr. Nixon is an Effective Date leader of his party. The question before us is whats point of view and which party do we want to lead the United States . Mr. Next and, would you like to comment question mark mr. Nix on, would you like to comment . Us now at the site of the first president ial margaret [indiscernible] and jennifer jacobs. You have a lot of reporting on 270. Iew of their path to they still claim they could do well in pennsylvania but they are talking less about pennsylvania now than they ever have. It starts with florida, ohio, North Carolina but where are they looking to get them the rest of the way . You can tell where they are focused and it is ohio, florida, nevada, new hampshire. You can tell what they are looking at. They say they are campaigning for governor in these concentrated states. That is where they are concentrating. They are starting to dabble in other states as well beyond just that core focused. You will see they are traveling to michigan and traveling to maine and focus on new mexico again. Pennsylvania is crucial. I talked to a couple of strategist and they said absolutely. Needed tot think they win. They truly believe that if the campaign were today that they would have the electoral votes to win without pennsylvania. Today we had an erchange with david bluff plouffe. Today he reiterated that they had a hundred percent chance of winning. Is a smart guy who got a president elected and got him reelected. Trump has tried to calm the nerves of democrats who are he has triedor to come the nerves of democrats who are freaking out. Going to be in the spin room for Hillary Clinton tonight, bill clinton . It not as far as i know. Is it anyone else . It will be David Plouffe. Unflappable and has a poker face. He has credibility because of his success of barack obama. A numbersffe, he is guy. This is still probably her race to lose but you remember a few weeks ago when we were thinking i wonder when she goes to arizona to gain, if she going to go to georgia . Were looking at and even race. When you throw gary johnson in the race, maybe a race that donald trump is poised to win. You still see full numbers in virginia. It is stille why her race. Why David Plouffe feels that way. The polls are starting to show that. As in herdo you see campaign, is there a camp that is more worried or are they like David Plouffe, thinking this is ours . It is a camp that is trying to convince themselves that if they stay calm and do not bleak blink and freak out it is hers. One of them was wearing a pin that said i believe she can win. That is against to project this or of calm. Talking about her chance to speak to the audience of 100 Million People and that is what she needs to focus on. Trying to talk themselves into the idea that if she remains focused on the issues and the voters and not donald trump she could still prevail. John one of the great secret is finding out who played donald trump. Dewey whatre trumps debateut prep, did they get more formal or serious along the way . They did have a podium. He practiced for five hours, he and spending some dedicated time and some candidates pull up from behind closed doors and steady. He was not doing that as much but he did do some actual practice with the podium and a couple of the strategists told me that it one point he had an aura that he was projecting that was spot on and one of them said im not sure if we can bottle that and have him present that demeanor. He nailed it. During practice. John did anyone play clinton . Mark big night here. Enjoy it. Work hard and win. Go team and fight. We will be right back with an important announcement about your debate tailgating plans after this. John it 8 30 p. M. Eastern market i will be hosting a pregame debate show from Hofstra University on bloomberg tv. Heres the deal. You can watch that coverage along with the debate itself in a livestream on twitter. bpolitics. Handle, debate prettythe much on any device. Twitterial coverage via starts at 8 30 p. M. And lasts until 11 p. M. Coming up, reid hoffman talks about the president ial election and his offer of 5 million bucks to if donald trump will turn over his tax returns. Thanks for watching from here. John and i say sayonara. Mark lets begin with a check of your first word news. Hillary clinton and donald trump meet tonight in their first president ial debate. A new poll shows them locked in a twoway race. The survey has the candidates each with 46 of the vote. When thirdparty candidates are included trump leads clinton. There are addictions tonights debate at Hofstra University could be the most watched president ial debate ever. You can see it all here beginning at 8 30 p. M. New york time and twitter will livestream the bloomberg broadcast. Iran released the fiveyearold a retired canadian iranian professor on what it called humanitarian grounds are you he and other dual nationals from byre detained for months hardliners. The Statement News agency said he was on out of iran and returned to canada. 60 investors representing 2 trillion in assets are joining the ncaa entertainers and businesses in calling from North Carolina to repeal its law limiting lgbt protections