Between donald trump and Hillary Clinton. They also showed astronomical unfavorable ratings for both candidates in a race that is, again, essentially now tied. Hillary leading trump by eight points. The other survey that got a lot of attention has trump leading clinton in a headtohead 40 3 . , 46 percent 46 percent40 4 . That is an 11 point swing. 44 that is an 11 point swing. What are the most heartening and the most troubling numbers in these polls . The mostrall, heartening thing for donald trump is that republicans have come home. Is that hesbling in the same place mitt romney was on election day 2012, and mitt romney got wiped out. All the productions of gloom and doom and republicans not supporting trump, predictions of gloom and doom and republicans not supporting trump, if i were him, i would be happy. Mark despite him losing to clinton on a series of traits, he is even with her. He has to radically improve his numbers in terms of trait to to have a chance to win. The other heartening thing is the metathing. Republicans think he can win. Independents is heartening. Downside, his numbers have improved. His standing has improved. But he is still behind. He does lose a lot in traits. Where he is behind in traits, clinton can use that to leverage. People thinking she is better on Foreign Policy and on a range of issues where he would rather be stronger. But overall, i would say more good news for trump. John way more good news then bad news. Just to go further on what i said before, hes doing badly with nonwhite voters and is in trouble with women. Not as bad as you might have thought with women. He is either going to have to move the needle on nonwhite voters, or he is going to end up where romney was. You cant win a general election with those numbers. He doesnt have to revolutionize what rummy did with nonwhite voters. If he continues to dominate romney did with nonwhite voters. If he continues to dominate with white male voters so substantially, this could the the last election where republicans dont have to make much progress with nonwhite voters. Issue. He taxes we must make him pay a price for it. Shows its a real problem for him, not releasing his tax returns. A huge part of why he is ahead within theor even margin of error is that he is doing well with independents. A vast majority of independents say he should release his tax returns. 44 of republicans say he showed. If thoseont know numbers are high enough to make him do it. John its a vulnerability. The data wasface, not entirely 100 gloom and doom for Hillary Clinton. Majority of people had a positive view of president obama. His Approval Rating was 51 . To the extent there is any good news for Hillary Clinton, what is the best news in this poll for Hillary Clinton, and the most troubling signs . Mark obamas Approval Rating is above 50 . If he is above 50 , given that she is somewhat running on continuity, that is good for her. She leads in a lot of traits, women, Foreign Policy, looking out for the middle class, being a good commander in chief. She leads in all of those by a lot or a lot a lot, and i think the reality for her is this is a wakeup call. When the Clinton Campaign said this would be a tight race, a lot of people didnt believe it. I sense in the Clinton Campaign a greater sense of urgency, and an ability to raise money and which they didnt have before. The fact that they got a wakeup call this early, i think is good. Her becauseood for it shows that he is in the race. People will say its not true. Its obviously true. The biggest problem in 2012 in the Obama Campaign was donors and others thinking it was in beingg for him, and not willing to write checks. And think democrats are more likely to come home if they than thatp can win she has a huge, insurmountable lead. But there are a lot of troubling signs here. She is not nearly as far ahead with women as she should be. And to see trump this close not having to revolutionize the race tells you she has a lot of work to do. Another person who has been watching these polls carefully is Bernie Sanders. Points out, as he has in the betterhat he does against trump than Hillary Clinton does. Many americans dislike both Hillary Clinton and donald trump. Here is how Bernie Sanders responded to a question about why he continues to fight for a nomination that remains a mathematical longshot. Mr. Sanders we need a campaign, havelection, that does not two candidates that are strongly disliked. I do not want the American People voting for the lesser of two evils. Is that how you would clinton, theary lesser of two evils . Mr. Sanders if you look no, i wouldnt describe it, but thats what the American People are saying. Whoa. Sanders is still in the middle debbiesty spat with wasserman schultz, the party chair. This week, he endorsed her challenger and said he would not keep her as the party leader if he was elected president. Clinton did little to quell the tension when she was asked about all that is going on with Bernie Sanders. Ms. Clinton certainly, we are going to talk with him when he is ready to talk, and listen to him. We will take into account what he is asking for. I think thats part of the process. Rid of about getting superdelegates . Ms. Clinton i am not going to negotiate with him today on your show, but when it is time, i am reaching out to unify the party. I expect him to do the same. I did that when i lost a much closer race to senator obama. Mark in what seemed to be an attempt to calm the waters, the dnc announced it was giving sanders a significant number of spots on the committee that will draft of the platform. Seats, sanders gets nearly one third, one less than clinton. Do things stand between Bernie Sanders and the woman he says as may be the lesser of two evils . They are worse today than they were on friday. In 2008, there was just as much or more work to do. But nothing is getting easier right now. Sanders is not backing off. Everybody is testy. Everybody is kind of at each others throats. Are morethink things hostile and antagonistic than they were 72 hours ago. The here is what i think big problem is on the Clinton Campaign right now. Clearly, this is a bigger distraction than some of us thought it would be. Is going to the convention. Its not lets see what happens after california. They are going to the convention. That means more pain, more division from the first and second week of june through july. John we will see where we are on june 8. You remember back in 2008, people were telling Hillary Clinton until the night of the last party that she should go on to the convention and was still calling her the next president of the United States. Mark its a big distinction if they can get him to back down. Ited on the last 72 hours, doesnt look that way right now. John i agree. The economy, stupid, Hillary Clintons version of the 1992 campaign slogan. John Hillary Clinton today gave a speech at the Service EmployeesInternational Union conference. She revved up her rhetoric about trump and his economic and john economic agenda. Ms. Clinton he could bankrupt america like hes bankrupted his companies. , how cansk yourself anybody lose money running a casino, really . [laughter] thats a pretty good question, you know. But we have started to notice something about Hillary Clinton and her go to messaging on the economy. Time, it is more antitrump than proclinton. Is more of the time, it antitrump than proclinton. She and her campaign have failed to articulate her vision in any detail. In an exchangece with a clinton surrogate. What are her two best original ideas on the economy . Infrastructure investment that can create jobs, and putting people together like she has done in the senate. As you know, i worked in the senate for 15 years before i went to the white house. And ay had a reputation record of pulling people together to get things done. Mark is either of those an original idea on the economy . She has a very clear vision of where she is going to take the country, and that is a vision she is going to run on in the fall. John does hillary have an economic message, and if so, what is it . Mark there are some things on her website. [laughter] policy proposals. Most involve an expansion of government. She says she will not raise middleclass taxes. A 20 yearhas been drought in both parties. The think tanks, the congressional thought leaders, very few new big ideas that the middle class can grab onto and say man, thats a good idea. Thats a tax cut i get. Thats an Education Plan i get. I can see how that is going to help my family. , have yet to find anybody including jim mussina, who can articulate them in a way thats exciting. Infrastructure is important, but i dont hear a lot of people talking about it. He did not like my response to his response. To mock theasy website, and i know thats not exactly what youre doing, but Hillary Clinton has a lot of good policy proposals. None of them are going to revolutionize the world, but she has economic proposals on childhood education and other things that would fit very well in her husbands old ideas on the economy. Grab bag. Ike a what she fails at his economic messaging. When her husband put those ideas wereher, they revolutionary in 1991, and he had putting people first, human capital, globalization and digitization of the economy and how all this stuff fits together. He had a narrative. He had slogans. It was exciting. She just has a bunch of ideas. That thought because we are going to talk to brian fallon. But not yet. Coming up next, how trump support compares to what support for mitt romney in 2012 was like. That after these words from our sponsors. Mark here to talk more about the general election surveys that everybody is talking about, our favorite pollster. Good to see you. Tell us about your overall take polls that show dead heat between trump and clinton. Right. Well, one of the things that they show is that in some cases, clinton leads a little. In some cases, trump leads a little. The question i always get from people is how do i decide what polls i am going to Pay Attention to. There are so many polls, that people would really like help doing it. Here is the perfect day to explain how to sort them out. When you have the same polling outfit doing polls overtime, you look at the trend. Any problem you might have with an individual pole is controlled for when you look at that same problem time after time after time. What we have here is consistency in terms of the swing. You see trump gaining ground as Hillary Clinton is losing ground. Whether that is eight points, 11 points, there is consistency. The fox poll had eight points as well, i think. What you had from last month until now, consistency across three different polls showing trump moving. Thats what you can take to the bank, is that in the american electorate, thats the mood right now. A lot of people have commented about how high the unfavorables are for these candidates. Amonghis shows is that Trump Supporters and clinton supporters both, is that if you ask are you voting for your candidate or against the other candidate, its basically a split. Affirmationlly an of their candidate. How does that play out Going Forward . What does that mean for what we are going to see in the next few months . A common question you ask as a followup is how strongly you are committed to your candidate. Its also a test of candidate strength. Is not ansay this affirmative vote for my candidate, its a negative vote against the other, we think of those votes as being more fragile. If you come to the election upset with the other candidate but you are not that gung ho about the candidate you are supporting, you can wane and your support could evaporate. Is for people to be making the affirmative case. In office. Candidate therefore, i will work for them, send money to them, all of those things. If you are just anti, those things are a little more amorphous. These candidates roughly splitting the difference, almost half and half of their supporters making the affirmative vote versus the negative vote. They are pretty much on the same shaky ground that way. Because how common is that, really . What can we learn going back to 2012 and seeing how mitt romney and barack obama were doing at the same time . Its a little apple storage is here, but it tells you something because the finding is so striking. Lookedmneys numbers about like these, but Barack Obamas numbers, by 31, his voters were making the affirmative case. Barack, they were for obama instead of just being against romney. We know how that turns out, so that gives us a little bit of monday morning quarterbacking to do. Feel stronglye to positive about your candidacy, and both of these candidates are suffering a little bit because of that. Talked about this earlier. People have been saying trump has something that looks a lot like the romney coalition. Romney lost. To grow in a position in areas where he is already strong . Howd you look at that . We are looking at a national poll. Even overall mood. Trump is doing even better than romney did with some very important, large groups. One of those groups eating whites. One of those being whites. One of those groups being men. While romney had a 7 advantage with man, that number is 23 with trump. John let me stop you there. Romney did what he did. Trump could either increase the share of the vote that comes from men. That seems unlikely. Or do even better with man. And do even better with whites. Could the contribution from whites be higher in 2016 even as america becomes a more diverse nation, or is that unlikely to be part of the formula for trump . If i understand you, youre wondering about turnout, can you increase the turnout of the white vote . Thats probably going to be harder to do. He will probably concentrate on the share. But keep in mind, we dont elect a president by a national vote. This will play out differently in the battleground states where this election will be won. Man, thats going to play out everywhere about the same. But the white vote is going to play out differently in new and iowa than florida and nevada. They will have a different , and thatste plan on the clinton side as well. Mark im not predicting are advocating. I am just saying as a matter of seems like he could get the white vote in some states up a little higher in terms of the contribution of the vote and do better with white did, andan met romney given the share of the vote that is the white vote, that alone could flip the formula in some states that be the formula that thes some states be formula that flips some states. It could very well be. Donald trump is gathering a bigger share of independents right now, and that could be the key. John lets talk about the independent equation where trump is doing better than romney was right now. Factor in the sandersclinton fight with that in the last 30 seconds here. Thats exactly right. Also to the affirmative case versus the negative case. How much of the anticlinton vote is due to the bernie people who are so committed that they will never vote for Hillary Clinton . Week that 11 ast of sanders supporters said they would vote for trump because they could not see themselves voting for Hillary Clinton. The independent vote, right now, the two candidates are getting about and even share. The democrats are more plentiful, so thats how you can lose the independent vote and still win. So, we will be looking at all three of these groups. Mark thank you very much. Coming up next, the Clinton Campaigns brian fallon joins us. We will ask him about the economy, donald trump, and so much more. Okay, ready . Whoa [ explosion ] nothing should get in the way of the things you love. Get americas fastest internet. Only from xfinity. John welcome back. Us in our studios brian fallon, the press secretary for Hillary Clintons president ial campaign. Which bridge did you come over . Brooklyn. John thank you for doing that. That jimd out earlier mussina, Obama Campaign manager from 2012, now on your campaign, had trouble answering the question about Hillary Clintons economic ideas. Can you tell us what some of her economic ideas are question mark first of all, i thought his answer was just nine. Ideas are . First of all, i thought his answer was just fine. Mark what original about it . A few things. The first speeches she gave was about raising wages and a profitsharing proposal that would incentivize companies to reward workers whose productivity has been responsible for economic gains. Thats not about the infrastructure. Its original. Mark is there anything original about the infrastructure plan . How she would pay for it. Asking the wealthy to do more. That will be announced in our Corporate Tax reform plan. I heard the discussion in the earlier segment. You guys should know that we put out a raft of different middleclass tax cut proposals including targeting Prescription Drug cost and child care, but we have not revealed the full extent of our middleclass tax proposal. Coming. Ore is cracks absolutely. And we did that with an eye toward preserving it for the. Eneral more is coming absolutely. And we did that with an eye toward preserving it for the general election. Hillary clinton views the tax code as a vehicle for helping incentivize responsible behavior by corporate citizens. You have the Profit S