Polling data out. John oh, man. Mark a new survey shows donald trump out in front with 30 in New Hampshire followed by marco rubio at 17, up six points for the florida senator since last months survey. In this poll, as in others in New Hampshire, Chris Christie remains stubbornly in sixth place. Nationally, there is a quinnipiac poll showing a threeperson race with trump leading, followed by cruz and rubio. Everybody else far back in single digits. Based on the totality of our polling, there is a clear sense that marco rubio still seems to be rising. Which brings us to two scenarios worth exploring. To get ahead of next weeks primary, what happens if trump wins in New Hampshire . Then theres a second scenario. What are the implications if marco rubio somehow wins this primary . Lets start with the trump scenario. John if he wins, he is back. Back and flush and pink. And rolls with a head of steam to South Carolina. Mark trump wins, he is the man to beat again. He is going to have to perform. He did not win iowa after being ahead in the polls. He needs to win New Hampshire. If he wins, he resurges. The other scenario we want to talk about is marco rubio winning. If you look at the public data, you will say there is no chance. Lots of private data suggest trump headed down, rubio headed up. Im not a math genius. The lines could cross. John its the case everyone agrees that marco rubio is rising. A lot of republicans saying that trump is falling but the public data is not bearing that out. Mark rubio may have risen. It is not clear he is still rising. John if rubio wins, maybe there is space for another establishment candidate. John kasich finishes a strong third, you get two establishment tickets out of New Hampshire. But maybe not. Marco rubio would quickly become the establishment alternative consensus candidate if he were to topple trump, it would make life hard for the others. Mark the only one. First, he becomes the most likely republican nominee on the strength of winning this primary. John maybe. If the old rules apply. John for the third day in a row, ted cruzs campaign has faced allegations his campaign im going to try a new topic. Ready for this . Go back to the marco rubio scenario. It is anything but a foregone conclusion that his surge will carry him to a victory. Theres a strategy to knee cap him. The best example today came from jeb bush. Jeb bush he was speaker of the house and he did a fine job there, but every speaker before him in after him that won is supporting me. Three statewide elected officials in florida are supporting me. It is not that they do not like marco. It is they saw me in action as a leader. They want leadership. Did he accomplish nothing in the senate . Jeb bush nothing. The list he put out has been debunked not just by me, by other people. John weve seen marco rubios foes employ a number of different varieties of ammo. The question is whether bush has found the magic bullet. Mark ive been asking the other campaigns bush camp, kasich camp, christie camp what will take rubio down. No one has real answers. People are trying Different Things. This thing about he does not have accomplishments. Some people think that is not going to break through. That is too complicated for voters. Hes a United States senator. I believe that part of what marco rubio is having so many Different Things thrown at him that nothing is going to break through. John there is some constellation of things i think that people believe. The hollow man theory. Somehow the lack of experience, lack of accomplishment, the youth, all of that stuff mark he impresses the crowd with his great speeches. John i think immigration it is always ballyhooed in the Republican Party but it never takes anybody down. The constellation the theory may be wrong. Candidates are circling around. Mark three governors and former governors, they look at marco rubio and say that that guy has never done a thing. They believe in their gut, its obvious to them that for marco rubio to be a nominee to beat Hillary Clinton they cannot fathom that may not break through with voters. John i say punk. They have the same view that Hillary Clinton had of barack obama. Man of no accomplishment. Mark for the third day in a row ted cruzs campaign has faced allegations that his team misled iowans by suggesting to them that carson was planning to leave the race. Campaign voicemails have the surface reflecting some Aggressive Campaign tactics by team cruz. The flap is still a conversation on cable television. The Cruz Campaign is having to answer questions about this. Is that something that could hurt him here or beyond New Hampshire . John his upside is limited in New Hampshire. It is not like he will not finish in the top three, maybe even finish worse according to public polling. I think it will increase the scrutiny in on them as they get to other states like South Carolina, nevada, and the southern states. There will be a lot of people with a microscope on the cruz operation and make sure they do not try to do the things they are alleged to do in iowa. Mark politics beanbag. We are headed into South Carolina. They may be worried that if they engage in the normal politics they would engage in, all of a sudden there is a different standard for ted cruz. Puts him off message. You can bet the other campaigns are going to keep this up, because it is occupying ted cruz. John the voicemail stuff is bad. Before they could muddy up the waters, what did cnn report . But there is now audio. If he was in the top contention, looking like a first or second this would be a bigger problem for him. It is a little below the radar but a think it could come back when we get to these other states. Mark absolutely. Barbara pierce bush, the former first lady, wife of george h. W. The mother of w and jeb made a cameo on the campaign trail today along with a charming turn on good morning america. Barbara bush i would say why dont you interrupt like the other people do . Yes, i would say that. Jeb bush i got better at interrupting. Come on. Barbara bush hes so polite. He does not brag, like some people i know. Who are you talking about . Barbara bush i cant remember. Im not getting into a spitting match with him. John Nora Odonnell doing that interview. This is one of the first moves that appears to be the 11th hour rollout in the bush family brand by jeb. His brother will campaign in South Carolina and his super pac has featured 43 in a new ad on the palmetto state airwaves. George w. Bush i know jeb. Jeb will unite our country. He knows how to bring the world together against terror, he knows when tough measures must be taken. Experience and judgment count in the oval office. John jeb has wrestled with the question of whether or not to play the dynasty card. Hes now playing it. Will it help or hurt him . Mark it will help them in the abstract, assuming that voters are still open to jeb bush. Other campaigns claim that bush has no chance to surge. There is public polling that suggest he has moved up. Female voters, older voters, National Security voters may look at the endorsement of his mother and brother and remind them selves that this is a brand that served the party well. He is right to play it. As voters shop around, this may be a good play for him. John my view has always been with all candidates, you play the hand you are dealt. Mitt romney, he passed obamacare. Marco rubio play that hand. I always thought jeb bush should come up with an answer but more or less use his family. You cannot run from the bush family. It wouldve been smarter to play this card earlier. I do not know if it is going to help him. Mark there is no question within the Republican Party there is more bush fatigue. This coming at the last minute probably not the smartest idea, but i do think it will help. If he has a chance, this will help them get where he needs to be. John when we come back. Mark can Hillary Clinton close the gap and the Granite State . We will talk about the state of the democratic race after this word from our sponsors. John last night on msnbc, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were back on the campaign trail today. For clinton, it was an event in manchester featuring other prominent female politicians such as governor Maggie Hassan and senator jeanne shaheen. Sanders held multiple events, including the unveiling of an endorsement of the former naacp president. The highlight comes this evening when hillary and bernie both are speaking at a Democratic Party dinner across the street from where we are sitting now. Their last real faceoff before the primary and it will take place in front of 6000 chanting democratic activists. This spasm of activity comes against the backdrop of new polling that shows sanders maintaining a lead over clinton, up 9 percentage points, if you believe the new boston globe poll or maybe even as much as points if you believe this new cnn wmur poll. On top of all that, we also have a new Quinnipiac National survey that has clinton and sanders now statistically tied for the national, the national all over america lead. With four days to go before the primary, where does the democratic race now stand . Mark the best thing that happened to Hillary Clinton this week is the poll showing sanders coming up 30. It is killing his expectations. There have been to polls from two separate organizations showing him up 30. He probably has a big lead but not 30. I think Hillary Clinton is fighting against expectations. She is showing herself to be a fighter, which is key for her. I think, between natural tightening, between the expectations game, and between the fact that clinton still has time to make up ground and clinton is good at making up ground in New Hampshire, she could get close enough to avoid this being a huge john i will tell you something about this weekend. Bernie sanders is going to go to new york city. And be on saturday night live. Make an appearance. Larry david is on the show. Hillary clinton is going to flint, michigan. There is something about this sanders thing on snl im careful about because there is a little shades of barack obama 2008. A little flying too close to the sun. Icharus. The wax wings. She, Hillary Clinton, that is a hardcore democratic thing. Go to flint. Side with people who are harmed. Mark Loren Michaels is a hard card carrying liberal. John it is elite versus working class. There is a chance she is flying low. Hes flying too close to the sun. That might come back to haunt him. I love larry david. Mark im looking forward to having him on. He shouldve done it later when there was a national contest. John this is my point. It is a little risky. It seems selfindulgent, to celebratory. Mark they were both great in the debate last night. The dinner tonight is not going to get as much National Attention happening on a friday night. In New Hampshire, it will get a lot of attention. 6000 activists that will this will interesting to see. Sanders has gotten better as a debater. He basically can sit toe to toe. Lets see tonight. Ive yet to see them do a joint event where his speech was as good as hers. John i think you saw them at the j. J. In iowa in october. He was good at that. Mark but not as good as her. John first they had the town hall format. Then we had the debate last night. Now we have them doing a different thing which is the straight ahead stump speech. A rallying call. I think he can go toe to toe with here there, too. I think we could have an exciting night tonight. Mark we head into the weekend, no more new ads. This is when the ground game matters. His big league psychologically is good for her but it shows he has a big lead. Coming up, two New Hampshire veterans after this. John among the republican candidates tuesdays primary in New Hampshire are jeb bush and john kasich two guys supporting those candidates. Judd gregg, the former senator from the state. And the former attorney general of New Hampshire and a long time republican activist. Hi. The great buddha. Activist . Yoda. Mark let me start with you, the public polling on governor bush is mixed. Some show him poised to get ahead i happen to think that donald trump has a ceiling of 25 or 30 , the other 75 of votes are going to move. I think it will happen after this debate. My sense is there are two or three people coming up fast on the outside. One is jeb bush. One happens to be john kasich. They have made good cases in their town meetings. I think people are very receptive to what they are saying. They are respected and are seen as leaders. As a result, i think when New Hampshire voters tend to decide late and they tend to move there he quickly in groups. Toward somebody they are comfortable with. I think youre going to see jeb do very well. Mark can anyone but trump finish first . Yes. Jeb, john, or potentially rubio. John let me ask you this question. If your guy, lets assume for the sake of argument that donald trump and marco rubio are going to finish in the top three somewhere. If your guy does not finish in the top three, does he have any case for going on . Sure, because it is not necessarily the top three. If youre fourth by a point. As judd just said, this race is so fluid. Im not going to set any arbitrary number. John if there are two establishment lane candidates that finish above your guys, do they go on . It becomes harder. If i get smoked here, im going home. John what about your guy, jeb bush . Lets say marco rubio and john kasich, does jeb bush have a case for continuing . Money. And also i happen to think as we move south, jeb gets even stronger. John even if jeb finished fifth or sixth, he should still go on and fight South Carolina . Absolutely. Our party could not afford to nominate donald trump or ted cruz. John you are not comfortable with the idea of john kasich or marco rubio carrying the establishment banner forward . They will have a heavy lift. With Financial Support or structural support. Mark john kasich is hoping for a lot of support from independents. There in the true independent category, where do you think that stands in terms of people wanting to vote for clinton or sanders . I have been to 50 or 100 town halls. I hear that over and over again. And the combinations of people who are voters is extraordinary. Its john kasich and Hillary Clinton. Its Bernie Sanders and ted cruz. When you are an independent in New Hampshire, you understand exactly the opportunity you have and the ability to make a statement that probably no other voter in the country has like this. Therefore, they are relatively mark public polls showing clinton down 30. The republican race seems more competitive. That is a wonderful point. They should look hard at that. And they should come on home. I dont know. I tend to agree with the senator. I think Hillary Clinton is stronger than polling data is showing. There is a phenomena, the sanders voter and the trump voter. A lot of them are firsttime voters or voters who are not regular participants. While i understand the energy and the fire, we still have to see whether they show up. It is a point to recognize in New Hampshire, our independent voters, 60 , may be republican voters, mostly educated women who left the party because they got upset with the national, the harshness of the national party. I suspect their Natural Inclination is to come to the republican primary and they will not be trump or cruz voters. John the one thing that is true about both you guys is you are not naturally inclined to take out the meat axe and take out other people. What is wrong with marco rubio . Why shouldnt he be the establishment candidate . I never ran a negative ad. I dont happen to believe in negative campaigning. I think we have quality people in our party. I think the Democratic Party has much more structural Serious Problems with their candidates then we have. John you think jeb bush is better than marco rubio. Why . Jeb has got a track record of government. There are three tests. Can they win . Are they substantive on the core issues, national defense, and health care and controlling spending . Do they know how to govern . As a governor, he knew how to govern. Believe me, governors govern. Senators, well, we have a good time, but we do not have a lot of responsibility. Mark who would you say are the swing groups in your primary, older women, single men . I think they are not doctrinaire voters. I think there are voters that look can you manage . Whats your experience . They really, this is a very questioning voter who takes a good, hard look, had time to look at these people. I do see a lot of women who are trying to make a decision. And again, the rhetoric of some is forbidding to them. They also are drawn to the middle. This is a middle statement. We put the purple to purple. John thank you. Mark up next, the voters are choosing and we go ted cruzing. All that and more after this. [laughter] joh