Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20161012 : comparem

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20161012

Democrat have been particularly intrigued by polling suggesting a close race in utah. It is one of the most conservative states in the country. Political leaders there have pulled her endorsements from donald trump in recent days. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Are 30 minutes from the close of trading in the u. S. Live, im matt miller. U. S. Stocks extending their gains and then racing them after the Federal Reserve september minutes. It was a close call for federal officials last month saying a rate hike was needed relatively soon. The internal Division Still remaining over the timing. Brexit pains continue to drive swings in the town as the british Prime Minister can see the need for a parliamentary vote of a plans to lead the eu do for a soft or a hard brexit . Three major u. S. Bank gear up for earnings later this week. We expect nearly as many fireworks as we have seen in the last few quarters . We will take a look at where the major averages stand. We had gains across the board and those gains were extended after the minutes from the last Federal Reserve open Market Committee were released at 2 00 and now we see those gains being paired. Nasdaq down 2 10. 2 . The dow jones and the s p little change with gains of 1 . Nasdaq where the biggest losses are to see what is going on with courtney. Courtney thanks, matt. The nasdaq really bouncing between gains and losses all day now, slightly lower. This comes after yesterday, a biggest decline in over a month since since september 9. We have to talk a lot erickson, the biggest percentage decline or on the nasdaq today and if you look at the stock, it is down 20 , on pace for its biggest oneday decline in nine years. This comes after a Third Quarter revenue really surprised and blindsided investors. With quarterly revenue at the worst in 10 years. Planning on more costcutting in jobs thato the 3000 it announced it was eliminating in sweden last week. The company is in a bit of turmoil after the ceo was ousted last july and it is tracking down its peers. At cisco, they are down about 2 as well and cisco on the nasdaq today. A bright spot, i am looking at apple up for its seventh straight day, on pace for its best winning streak since february 2016. It has added 28 billion in market cap over the last seven risingd of course it is on bad news from its rival, samsung, which had to end production of the galaxy note 7 smartphone and today, coming out and saying that they are cutting 2. 3 billion from profit for the Third Quarter. Back to the site right here right now at the nasdaq, i will send it up to you matt. Matt Courtney Collins at the Nasdaq Market site. Statistics, job openings falling to a loan august. The labor market, a steady rise in the number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs and declining layoffs. It is the rate that fed chair janet yellen looks at. To parse the data for us, the chief economist at the jobsite. Thank you for joining us from washington. Reallyport is like the nerdy version of the jobs report that everyone knows about. Only the true connoisseurs really look at it. What stuck out to you most today . The biggest thing that struck was that we continue to see a relatively low number of unemployed relatives to job numbers out there. Right now, there is about 1. 4 unemployed people. That is down steadily over the past few years. The recession, that was 6. 5. In terms of people actively looking for work today, there are a lot of postings out there. There are 6. 5 people looking for every noble job. It is a pretty extraordinary improvement. Did fall. Enings are there signs of a labor market to you of momentum fitting a little bit . The fall we saw was month over month and still keeps us in the higher job openings range. That has been about a year and a half. We are still clearly at the the recovery looks strong for those actively the labor market. One question this raised is we saw the opening of particularly some high wage industries. Finance information, which includes tech as well as moviemaking and publishing as well as professional services. That combined with something we saw in the jobs report last friday, which is that job growth has been slower in some of the something it is worth watching. It is too soon to know exactly what it is, as the beginning of a new trend. If there is any softening, it was like it will be among the higher wage industries. Matt we have seen Labor Force Participation bottoming out. I have got a chart of it on my screen. We basically turned around a drop and have hung around the levels we saw at the beginning of 2014. Is that going to continue the trend of Labor Force Participation bottoming out here . Yes, the hope is as wages continue to rise, we might even start pulling more people back into the labor force in the directly into jobs or into actively looking. The number i like to look at most is working age adults 2554 who are working. That was at 78 time for the highest point since the recession. Think the big question is how many folks are out of the labor back today, could be coast in if the economy is strengthened. It is a question about whether the market fundamentally changed, or is there actually more slack and this is a both economists and policymakers are assessing over right now. Are we know policymakers at least finally looking at and inusing on the difference the health of labor markets among minorities and those more or less educated, gender divisions in the labor market. Where do you see biggest problems that need to be focused on as far as that is concerned . In the last last month of jobs report from the past week, we saw a big increase in unemployment and a drop in Labor Force Participation with those who are the least educated. Although warning sign those folks had the worst and therefore had the worst recovery to have since then. That is definitely worth watching. The good news is what we saw in the income data last month, rose is that the income particularly for lower income households. As one finding that inequality might be narrowing a bit even though the news of unemployment theworse for those with least education. The other group, of course, that we are particularly focused on, is labor force but a patient rate, which has been declining not just in the recession but in terms of economic anxiety a lot of bigger questions facing the economy structurally. We talked about the quick break being a popular thing for janet yellen to look at. People quit their jobs when they feel confident they could get another one. Re is also quick break quit rate by industry breakdown. What are you seeing there . Isthe quick break right now just about as high as it is been at any time since recession after prerecession levels. I like to look at this as the share that are voluntary. Quit versus layoffs. It is hard to compare this by industry given there are some industries that have a lot more than others. The quit and the higher rate will always be higher with hospitality were people do not as Industries Like manufacturing and finance, where there are much longerterm jobs. Higher quit rate, especially relative to the layoff late is a sign of worker confidence and continued economic recovery. Joe great stuff. Thank you very much, chief economist. Matt coming up, thanks earnings jpmorgann earnest with and wells fargo leading the charge. Next, we will hear from ceo thomas on what to expect from wells fargo after the account scandal and why he thinks we are in for a good quarter for the u. S. Banking sector. This is bloomberg. Joe next week, we will hear from the bank of Merrill Lynch and morgan stanley. ss scandal,argo shrinking revenue and increased litigation costs. Was asked how ceo closely investors will be paying attention to what the wells fargo ceo john stumpf has to say. That you willre hear very much and i do not know if it will be very different from what he is saying. Important obviously to investors. My sense is when there is a strong message that he has, it will be set up to be delivered very specifically. My guess is he will just reiterate what he has been saying. Broadly,ore potentially, it turns around. Banks begin on friday, you know, this could be the quarter we see some improvement. Yields are a little bit higher in the last few days. What do you anticipate more generally . We expect a solid quarter for the Banking Industry. A discount for the overall market, a lot of talk this will be the sixth consecutive quarter for earningspershare for negative, and yet banks, if you look at the 200 banks we follow, they have never had a down six. Er over those quietly, it is a steady performance and we expect that now. Riskink a lot of the macro talk, meaning those brexit conversations earlier in the year, the First Quarter was very volatile. We have seen a couple of recent decisions from regulators that have been a little gentler on the industry. The governor gave a speech about two weeks ago i think that was very positive between 250 billion dollars. There will be a lot of talk about that and i think there will be a lot of talk about potential changes for Interest Rates. I think it will be steady a positively interpretative order. Happening in the imf throw bank last week, infused into that a lot of talk about Deutsche Bank in the european bank. You have the ceo that company in washington trying to figure out a settlement, and those talks reportedly ongoing. I wonder how you see that playing out in the American Banking system . System in different europe than what i described in american banks. I raised Capital Capital to a higher degree much sooner. The other difference is no negative Interest Rates. For Deutsche Bank, we think the issues they are dealing with is a slow economy in europe. Increased rate latorre headmans. This whole discussion about what this fine may be brings into question about capital adequacy. Those are important matters. I think the big discussion is what have negative Interest Rates done to big banks in europe . When the banks look out beyond 2020, we think it will be hard to make money in that market if you have negative Interest Rates. Even negative interest banks, there will not be as much commentary around macro issues, why do you think that is the case this quarter . It is not like you resolve much. Is still an issue, do not get me a rock. I do not mean to dismiss it by any means. The big we have got global in the country. Those are maybe the big eight banks. When you get beyond that to the regional banking market, that is not as big an issue and there is a thriving maybe that is too aggressive a word, but there is a positive momentum story with regional banks where we think there will be 8 earningspershare growth. It is still a difficult environment. I think it is a question of which banks youre talking about with regards to macro issues. Lets talk about the small and mediumsized banks. You look at the prospects for m a going forward, would you see more, do you think . We had 25 fewer banks today than in 2009. That is how quickly the industry is consolidating. Roughly 3 to 4 of the industry every year is consolidating. It is happening below the biggest banks and more in the Midsized Bank area. We will think it will be a continued healthy environment. Von a it always happens. Some banks merge. Isnt it a good thing that banks are consolidating . I think it is good for shareholders in the industry to have the banks become more profitable through consolidation. I think what is different is while i was earlier speaking from a relative performance spaces, i think the Banking Industry will be ok, and good, but it is still a hard and challenging environment. We have a flatter yield curve than previously. Benignquality has been but at some point it will probably become a little more expensive. Lot of regulatory issues vonnie very much down again. Comparison will be good relative to last you because lester was a recorder for the more Investment Banking inclined banks. We think there is a chance for a modest surprise but from a historic perspective, it is not an easy environment for the banks. Doesnt as the kb kbw president and ceo. Matt time for a look at some of the biggest is the stories in the news right now. Secure cooperation, output moves from is istanbul to vienna. Turkeyhieved its goal in after scoring backing from russias to largest oil producers. Opecs challenge is trying to cut production or highlighted after the latest data revealed a half million barrel difference of opinion over how much menu members should pump caps on output. It will be decided next month. Energy transfer declined a u. S. Request to voluntarily suspend work on North Carolina north dakota pipeline. Moving ahead of construction for work on the controversial project. The pipeline will did damage sites considered culturally significant and poses environmental risks as well. Several protesters were arrested this week. Humana shares fell the most in three months earlier today, following a sharp decline in government ratings for players to help ensure author offers and medicare. Fourstar plans or better, dropped to about 37 in july down from 78 a year earlier. The Justice Department filed to block a merger between humana and aetna. Fallout today from Samsungs Galaxy note 7 crisis. Said of Fiat Chrysler deals have stalled akoni according to people familiar with the matter. Discussions have not been dropped completely but people familiar say it is unlikely it will be signed by the end of the year. Phantoms priority at the moment is said to be managing the issue and not pursuing other large deals. That is your Bloomberg Business flash update. Stocks, theup, u. S. Biggest test since the brexit vote in june. We will show you why a pivotal level could show danger. This is bloomberg. \ matt on speculation opec agreements in crude output will not succeed in producing supply. Lets take a look at what the history is. G tv 3898, you can see a blue line which is opecs production quota. The white line is excluding the rock. Over the last three or 40 years, you can see production started the opec quota. An alltime record level. 32. 5 to 33. History is telling you they have not in the past. So obviously, history does not that is a cool chart and it reminds me of a reverse chart here at one of the policy charts and the charts about the fed not begin to hit its goals on inflation. Matt he does look similar indeed. Joe similar themes. I looking at the s p falling below a pivotal level. Recently fell below its moving average for the First Time Since the brexit vote which you see right there. Line and youe cannot make too much of a deal of the s p falling below its 100 Day Moving Average on a oneday basis. The idea thatto momentum in the stock market really does seem to have fizzled out a bit. At new highs in Early September and ever since then, the dominant theme has been to back up in interestrate, a lot of talk about the fed, it seems very likely that the fed will hike at this point. We have seen the markets stall out a bit. You want to keep an i on the 100 Day Moving Average. A lot of people will be paying attention to it and if it falls below, that might be a sign of a deeper loss to come. We fall sharply below that right after brexit, it didnt continue to anything so you do not want to read too much. It is an trusting we fall below the moving average now but right when we start into the earnings season. We have disappointments yesterday, and a little later on in the program, ipo share i showing the chart s p price index because it does not look good. Whats i look so to the chart. Matt thank you. The market closes up next and here are the major averages with westman conformist to go to close. You can still see gains in the dow in the s p 500. The nasdaq down lightly but really not a lot of movement. The gains we saw earlier called after the fed minutes were released. This is bloomberg. Moments away from the closing bell. Whatd you miss . The fed losses after signaled policymakers will gradually probably lift Interest Rates gradually. Im joe weisenthal. Matt and i matt miller. Welcome to viewers tuning in live on twitter. You can watch our closing bell coverage every weekday from 4 00 p. M. To 5 00 p. M. Eastern. New technologies, new innovation. Lets kick off with market minutes. Markets seem to be Holding Onto Gains at the end of the day here. I got they would turn down and drop after minutes were released, but they are coming back a little bit. Joe it has been a pretty tight range the entire day. A rally, ageold right after that release of said minutes. A huge move. We have more gainers than losers. On the upside, utilities and telecom really leading the charge. Kind of aresting, barbell of defensive groups. Looking at individual movers, we then talking about humana. Its plans at a medicare that were rated less than or stars are now the majority of what it offers. Four stars or higher, only 37 compared to 78 percent last year. Black decker is going to buy numeral newell brandstool unit. Who knew they had a tool unit . In the bondh action market. A kind of moved around a little bit. The twoyear yield was higher on the day earlier, but it fell. Again, these are not very significant moves, kind of reflecting the fact that the minutes did not really change much for the fed picture. This is the spread you want to keep an eye on. It has been trending down for a long time, really bottoming this summer. We will talk more about banks in a little bit, but this is a steepening curve. Matt ive been looking at currencies very closely since the socalled flash crash last week in the pound. Is a great w

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