Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20160801 : comparem

A different Industry Groups to market the ones that are notable are health care and technology. , 3. 3 nergy is something were really driving the s p down. Oliver the market has been so tightly traded that we have this longterm range where we have been bound and now you have the shortterm range but oil was the story today because this is 2 markets, stocks and oil, that for a while they have been moving independently of one another. Stocks are touching new highs and oil in the bear market has been falling the past couple months. When you see the s p struggle to stay in the green, it starts to call into question a little bit stressposttraumatic from a Market Participants were oil drags the market down so fast. That is very interesting. More specifically when you were looking at the sectors, oil is the big loser there. Interesting to see that tech was flat. It vacillated through the j. Through the day. Momentum. Ifts in to see that sector continued to push into positive territory is very interesting, as well as health care. More cyclical sectors doing well bi. Joe lets look at bond markets and i want to start with japan. This is a 10year yield good still in the negative territory but look at that move just over the last several days. Japanbout how the bank of were seeing real reaction. Incredibly low, but keep an i on the longterm yields. Yielday u. S. 10year higher. The selloff was interesting. We are seeing a simultaneous selloff in treasuries and equities. And finally, i want to point out something that is tied to rates, u. S. Mortgage rates, falling to the lowest level ever. It is all connected. You might want to think about refi. Scarlet definitely time for refi. Town falling versus the dollar. It is stuck in it tight range since the dust settled from the brexit vote, or as oliver parted, posttraumatic stress syndrome dissipated a bit. Speculative such as headphones are the most bearish on the pound going back 20 years. Short positions outnumbered long positions by more than 80,000 contracts. That is the most since bloomberg began tracking the data in 1992. Joe lets talk commodities. The story once again is oil. Around 40. E, right it got slammed today, down nearly another 4 . The big story is the bgi, wti, oil is officially in a bear market. We are now down about 22 . The theme of the disconnect that oliver was just talking about between equities and oil is a big one we will be talking about a lot. Scarlet those are todays market minutes. You can find all these charts using the function of the bottom of the screen. I will pick up on what oliver was just talking about, the tightly traded range for the s p 500. We note that the s p 500 is hovering near record highs, but you can really see the tight range that the s p has been confined to over the last 12 days. I highlighted the range, and most of the s p 500 moved during this yellow banded period, june 14, 11 points,. 5 . Since then the moves have been smaller than that. Joe it has been remarkably quiet and dull in equity land. Scarlet after this week you dont have Central Banks providing any direction for the market. Oliver you have to wonder which way that spring and coils when it does. Uncoils when it does. Scarlet i like that imagery come oliver. Oliver im looking at valuation, speaking of stocks. Basically a few kind of off the beaten path types of evaluations. The blue line is priced trailing earnings. The white line is priced to e bidta. Purple is crude oil as well. In particular i want to point ebitda. Ebidta. When you think about regular pes you have the big share count element as well. Measurementlar the highestitda is ever, and the ratio of 11. 3, predotcom bust era that has not been reached in 16 years. Interesting to look at that as well. Scarlet ridiculously expensive on that level. Oliver pretty expensive, yeah. Joe very cool. I want to talk about last nights chinese data because of an interesting happen to do it. This is the spread between the private chinese pmi and the official one bit this leads some conspiracy theorists to say the officials are inflating the stats. Sometimes it slips over and the private one tends to have smaller and more mediumsized companies. We have a private one higher. Second time in three years the private chinese pmi was above the official one. Smaller companies, perhaps stateowned enterprises, are decelerating, 12 private companies are doing better. While private equities are doing better. Scarlet there was another time it happened, and guess what happened after that . Joe we will have to see if this is just a pattern or a blip. Staying on chinese pmi, lets get inside from the head of u. S. Global emerging markets who is with us from boston. Thank you very much for joining. What is your latest read on the chinese economy . Geoff well, first of all, i dont think we should get to exist with the monthly swings to exist with the monthly swings going on. No doubt in my mind that the spurting growth because of the credit in economy in the First Quarter is going to prove to be temporary. Starting to slow down again. With longterm perspective, we still think that there is a soft landing happening. In other words, growth is slowing gently rather than sharply. I dont think those pmi numbers alter that picture. This is a slowing economy, not a collapsing economy. Oliver so then when you look at the depreciation with the losses in chinese currency of late, how come we havent seen the effect on other markets and Asset Classes that the drop had in the past year . Geoff i think that we didnt see a repeat of the august decline, the august volatility, in the january volatility this year for a couple of reasons. First of all, i think the market understands better than the chinese currency policy, monitoring against a basket of currencies, not just the u. S. Dollar. Introduction of that new policy was not particularly well handled by the authorities in china. There is a lot of market confusion about it. I think we got used to that to a certain extent. Secondly, when we had this extreme volatility in january, that was against the background were having seen the fed raise was the december, there growth picture around the world. I think that is what spooked people as well as the uncertainty over the currency. Clearly if the chinese currency were to continue to fall at a rapid rate we dont think it goes beyond 620 this year. 6. 8 this year. We would focus on it rapidly going forward. At this point in markets got used to the greater volatility and i think there is a certain level of comfort about the soft landing scenario that is slowing the growth environment in place in china itself. Scarlet im going to pull up a chart on Bloomberg Ventures the chinese docs lagged behind the rest of the emerging market. Line. S the white emerging stocks have gained 5 total return since the low in january. Emerging market stocks are up 30 . Plow into emerging markets is not indiscriminate, is it . Geoff no, its not. China is the market we all point that gdp growth dissent mean anything for stock Market Performance and we have seen that this year. A number of things are going on in china but we had a tremendous bubble in the Chinese Market locally until the middle of last year. That is what is disappointing but not including the shares in the index. That brought the market crashing down. All sorts of concerns about policy, about structural reform in china, about priority they are putting on structural reform. That is kept the market low. June, they said we are not going to put them into the now. There are plenty of other markets people want to invest in where i think the situation is a little bit more clear than is going on in china where the reform story remains very uncertain, very unclear. It is not validating the Chinese Market by putting it into the emerging market index at this point. Joe another piece of data that we got out of last night and i want to go to the bloomberg to show it come away from china, south korean exports, which some see as a proxy for world trade activity. That came in much weaker than people expected. Down 10 yearoveryear. What is going on with the world trade right now . People are debating, is there a secular shift away from the peak or isding globalization there something still related to the cycle in china . Geoff that is an enormous subject so stop me when i talk for too long. We think it is a mixture of both of those. No doubt in our view that there is structural decline in global trade going on in this particular cycle. We think it has got to do with the number of factors, although all of this is hard to prove. It is the softness of Global Growth, debt deleveraging going on in parts of the world, shortening of supplychains in a country like china. It is the commodity story as well. The chinese commodity slowdown, which is more of a cyclical issue, of course. Probably also the development of shale and gas in the u. S. Which means the u. S. Is not importing as much oil. Of thed be reshoring Manufacturing Industry back to the u. S. Frankly, we dont really know what is causing a good those are just some arguments we are using. The bottom line is it is indicative of soft Global Growth and Global Trade Group specifically, we think, is a drag on corporate earnings growth. It is one of the reasons growth and earnings has been so disappointing over the last five years. Joe all right, great stuff. Thank you very much, geoff dennis. Scarlet coming up, the bank of england gets ready to announce its Rate Decision on thursday. We look at the odds of a rate cut. This is bloomberg. Mark im mark crumpton. Lets get to first word news. Forward to rick scott says there are genuine sections of the zika virus transmitted by mosquitoes. The new cases are clustered in the same neighborhood in Miamidade County identified last week. The centers for Disease Control and prevention have issued a new advisory saying pregnant women should not travel to that area and pregnant women who live there should take steps to prevent mosquito bites and sexual spread of the virus. The Democratic National convention positive impression on americans than the republican convention, based on a new gallup poll. After the convention, 44 of the americans view to the Democratic Party more favorably, compared to 35 who view the Republican Party more favorably. 42 view the Democratic Party less favorably versus 52 for republicans. In syria, all five people on board of russian transport helicopter were killed when it was shot down during the humanitarian mission. It was the deadliest single incident involving Russian Military personnel in syrias civil war. So far there has been no claim of responsibility. In new york, and the eye electronics cap has pleaded guilty to funneling Sensitive Information to china. He is accused of giving a chinese official photographs of documents displayed in a restricted area of the fbis new york office. Prosecutors are saying that that case is still under investigation. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Scarlet, back to you. Scarlet thanks so much, mark. Whatd you miss . We turn our attention to the bank of england. On thursday to be a we will announce its Rate Decision and many are anticipating a rate cut following the countrys vote to leave the European Union to lets get muchneeded perspective from Frederik Ducrozet from bank pictet. He joins us by phone from geneva. Will a rate cut from the boe prevent a recession or supplementing fate to forcibly minimize the impact of a recession or simply minimize the effect of a recession . You know what, we just lost frederik on the phone. Lets go to the panel. Economic deterioration following the brexit vote will bear fruit. Joe we have surveys, instead of hard data. People are waiting for unemployment and real house price data. We have the surveys that tend to track pretty welcome including the pmi data can which i can bring up in one second. There is still definitely doesnt bring that up scarlet i mean, like you said, that is survey data, where the heart of data has not come up. Mark carney three weeks ago declines to cut rates, waiting for more hard evidence. Do we have it by thursday . Oliver what is interesting with the markets position, we were talking about this at the beginning of the show, there is physically 100 certainty on behalf of traders right now saying there is going to be a cut. Anytime that happens you start thinking about the risks. Is it going to be to the upside downside on sterling . Sterling basically flat after the dropdown post brexit. It opens itself to big moves. Maybe ity do cut but is by different amount or there is not additional twoyear stimulus measures announced as well. Scarlet if you go inside my bloomberg and look for the united kingdom, 98 on some a rate cut for august 4. You can take that back to, say, july 13, and the odds of the rate cut back then were 82 . Oliver exactly. Joe if you go inside my bloomberg, i brought up todays latest manufacturing pmi and i showed it in two ways. The blue bar is the month over month change. We have not had this is going back all the way. This is the biggest drop in years. The white line is the actual level of 48. 2, also the lowest level in several years. The key thing is this could be an overreaction. Purchasing managers, maybe they are all pessimistic with the brexit. But the fact of the matter is this data over time performs historically in line with gdp data. Scarlet well have much more on this and continue to discuss the implications of the expected rate cut. This is bloomberg. Scarlet the bank of england Rate Decision is thursday and as promised, Frederik Ducrozet of bank pictet joins us on the phone from geneva. As a practical matter, will a rate cut on thursday prevent a recession or only minimize the impact of one . Frederik very difficult to say in the early stages of the cycle. We dont have enough evidence and i think the bank of england doesnt have enough evidence to assess the full impact of brexit on business confidence, hiring decisions, investment. There is a strong case for the bank of england to be gradual and ease Monetary Policy stepbystep. But then signaling also and that will be a key part of the meeting, key part of the statement, the communication aspect. They could do more in the future. For what is the argument the bank of england to go slow, to go gradual . Do you find argument compelling . Well, many arguments including the lax monetary trade,and post brexit immigration deals would look like, what is the fiscal policy that is another key aspect of the meeting. What the budget for the u. K. Will be in the next few years. We dont know anything. We know very little about the new government and i think the bank of england will be in a very difficult position because they need to base the decision on government policy and this government policy at this stage of the cycle is very unclear. Do you seederik, how their ultimate decision affecting markets where you have the pound still down 10 postbrexit . It has been pretty much flat. Has it reached the bottom, a stable point . What happens if the rate cut doesnt happen or if it is different from the expectations . on a shortterm basis it is almost a textbook case of this sort squeeze. If they cut by 2025 basis points, they could cut by little bit more. Cut by maybe 30, 35 basis points. As you said, maybe to try and avoid any negative reactions in the currency markets in particular. And then there is the case of the yield curve, which has been both lowered and flattened very sharply in recent weeks. That is difficult parameter to take into account. If the bank of england decides to resume qe, quantitative easing, as soon as this week, or in the next few months, then starting from such a lower and flatter yield curve is a different barometer to take into account. Boe frederik, what can be learn from what ecb has done with Corporate Bond buying . Are there any jewels that the ecb has utilized which you think would make sense for the boe . Frederik yeah, definitely come in a very different situation. Of course, the bank of england told us already that it will likely use a combination of tools and it could, and should, in my opinion, include credit easing options. The bank of england has its own funding. They could use it in a slightly different way, maybe more generous in terms of the majority rates and conditions. They could include Corporate Bonds in the Asset Purchase Program if they decide to resume this program. That is part of the toolkit. Im not sure that makes a difference in the case of the u. K. , because there is not much of a stress in the Corporate Bond markets or banking sector, actually, for that matter. Scarlet very quickly, frederik, what might make boe consider negative Interest Rates . Frederik i think the governor mark carney was particular about that. Wesk of instability knew what happened the start of this year in japan and we see what happens in the eurozone so i dont think that is the case in the u. K. , no. Joe ok, Frederik Ducrozet of banque pictet, thank you for joining us. Scarlet coming up, pat burke on the global connection between banks in china. [hip hop beat] olympics 2016, let me get you on my level. So you never miss a moment, miss a minute, miss a medal. Why settle when you can have it all . Soccer to wrestling. Track and field to basketball. Fencing to cycling. Diving to balance beam. All you have to sa is, show me, and boom its on the screen from the bottom of the mat, to the couch where you at . Show me the latest medal count xfinitys where its at. Welcome to it all. Comcast nbcuniversal is proud to bring you coverage of the rio olympic games. Mark im mark crumpton. Lets get to first word news. The Industry Groups<\/a> to market the ones that are notable are health care and technology. , 3. 3 nergy is something were really driving the s p down. Oliver the market has been so tightly traded that we have this longterm range where we have been bound and now you have the shortterm range but oil was the story today because this is 2 markets, stocks and oil, that for a while they have been moving independently of one another. Stocks are touching new highs and oil in the bear market has been falling the past couple months. When you see the s p struggle to stay in the green, it starts to call into question a little bit stressposttraumatic from a Market Participants<\/a> were oil drags the market down so fast. That is very interesting. More specifically when you were looking at the sectors, oil is the big loser there. Interesting to see that tech was flat. It vacillated through the j. Through the day. Momentum. Ifts in to see that sector continued to push into positive territory is very interesting, as well as health care. More cyclical sectors doing well bi. Joe lets look at bond markets and i want to start with japan. This is a 10year yield good still in the negative territory but look at that move just over the last several days. Japanbout how the bank of were seeing real reaction. Incredibly low, but keep an i on the longterm yields. Yielday u. S. 10year higher. The selloff was interesting. We are seeing a simultaneous selloff in treasuries and equities. And finally, i want to point out something that is tied to rates, u. S. Mortgage rates, falling to the lowest level ever. It is all connected. You might want to think about refi. Scarlet definitely time for refi. Town falling versus the dollar. It is stuck in it tight range since the dust settled from the brexit vote, or as oliver parted, posttraumatic stress syndrome dissipated a bit. Speculative such as headphones are the most bearish on the pound going back 20 years. Short positions outnumbered long positions by more than 80,000 contracts. That is the most since bloomberg began tracking the data in 1992. Joe lets talk commodities. The story once again is oil. Around 40. E, right it got slammed today, down nearly another 4 . The big story is the bgi, wti, oil is officially in a bear market. We are now down about 22 . The theme of the disconnect that oliver was just talking about between equities and oil is a big one we will be talking about a lot. Scarlet those are todays market minutes. You can find all these charts using the function of the bottom of the screen. I will pick up on what oliver was just talking about, the tightly traded range for the s p 500. We note that the s p 500 is hovering near record highs, but you can really see the tight range that the s p has been confined to over the last 12 days. I highlighted the range, and most of the s p 500 moved during this yellow banded period, june 14, 11 points,. 5 . Since then the moves have been smaller than that. Joe it has been remarkably quiet and dull in equity land. Scarlet after this week you dont have Central Banks<\/a> providing any direction for the market. Oliver you have to wonder which way that spring and coils when it does. Uncoils when it does. Scarlet i like that imagery come oliver. Oliver im looking at valuation, speaking of stocks. Basically a few kind of off the beaten path types of evaluations. The blue line is priced trailing earnings. The white line is priced to e bidta. Purple is crude oil as well. In particular i want to point ebitda. Ebidta. When you think about regular pes you have the big share count element as well. Measurementlar the highestitda is ever, and the ratio of 11. 3, predotcom bust era that has not been reached in 16 years. Interesting to look at that as well. Scarlet ridiculously expensive on that level. Oliver pretty expensive, yeah. Joe very cool. I want to talk about last nights chinese data because of an interesting happen to do it. This is the spread between the private chinese pmi and the official one bit this leads some conspiracy theorists to say the officials are inflating the stats. Sometimes it slips over and the private one tends to have smaller and more mediumsized companies. We have a private one higher. Second time in three years the private chinese pmi was above the official one. Smaller companies, perhaps stateowned enterprises, are decelerating, 12 private companies are doing better. While private equities are doing better. Scarlet there was another time it happened, and guess what happened after that . Joe we will have to see if this is just a pattern or a blip. Staying on chinese pmi, lets get inside from the head of u. S. Global emerging markets who is with us from boston. Thank you very much for joining. What is your latest read on the chinese economy . Geoff well, first of all, i dont think we should get to exist with the monthly swings to exist with the monthly swings going on. No doubt in my mind that the spurting growth because of the credit in economy in the First Quarter<\/a> is going to prove to be temporary. Starting to slow down again. With longterm perspective, we still think that there is a soft landing happening. In other words, growth is slowing gently rather than sharply. I dont think those pmi numbers alter that picture. This is a slowing economy, not a collapsing economy. Oliver so then when you look at the depreciation with the losses in chinese currency of late, how come we havent seen the effect on other markets and Asset Classes<\/a> that the drop had in the past year . Geoff i think that we didnt see a repeat of the august decline, the august volatility, in the january volatility this year for a couple of reasons. First of all, i think the market understands better than the chinese currency policy, monitoring against a basket of currencies, not just the u. S. Dollar. Introduction of that new policy was not particularly well handled by the authorities in china. There is a lot of market confusion about it. I think we got used to that to a certain extent. Secondly, when we had this extreme volatility in january, that was against the background were having seen the fed raise was the december, there growth picture around the world. I think that is what spooked people as well as the uncertainty over the currency. Clearly if the chinese currency were to continue to fall at a rapid rate we dont think it goes beyond 620 this year. 6. 8 this year. We would focus on it rapidly going forward. At this point in markets got used to the greater volatility and i think there is a certain level of comfort about the soft landing scenario that is slowing the growth environment in place in china itself. Scarlet im going to pull up a chart on Bloomberg Ventures<\/a> the chinese docs lagged behind the rest of the emerging market. Line. S the white emerging stocks have gained 5 total return since the low in january. Emerging market stocks are up 30 . Plow into emerging markets is not indiscriminate, is it . Geoff no, its not. China is the market we all point that gdp growth dissent mean anything for stock Market Performance<\/a> and we have seen that this year. A number of things are going on in china but we had a tremendous bubble in the Chinese Market<\/a> locally until the middle of last year. That is what is disappointing but not including the shares in the index. That brought the market crashing down. All sorts of concerns about policy, about structural reform in china, about priority they are putting on structural reform. That is kept the market low. June, they said we are not going to put them into the now. There are plenty of other markets people want to invest in where i think the situation is a little bit more clear than is going on in china where the reform story remains very uncertain, very unclear. It is not validating the Chinese Market<\/a> by putting it into the emerging market index at this point. Joe another piece of data that we got out of last night and i want to go to the bloomberg to show it come away from china, south korean exports, which some see as a proxy for world trade activity. That came in much weaker than people expected. Down 10 yearoveryear. What is going on with the world trade right now . People are debating, is there a secular shift away from the peak or isding globalization there something still related to the cycle in china . Geoff that is an enormous subject so stop me when i talk for too long. We think it is a mixture of both of those. No doubt in our view that there is structural decline in global trade going on in this particular cycle. We think it has got to do with the number of factors, although all of this is hard to prove. It is the softness of Global Growth<\/a>, debt deleveraging going on in parts of the world, shortening of supplychains in a country like china. It is the commodity story as well. The chinese commodity slowdown, which is more of a cyclical issue, of course. Probably also the development of shale and gas in the u. S. Which means the u. S. Is not importing as much oil. Of thed be reshoring Manufacturing Industry<\/a> back to the u. S. Frankly, we dont really know what is causing a good those are just some arguments we are using. The bottom line is it is indicative of soft Global Growth<\/a> and Global Trade Group<\/a> specifically, we think, is a drag on corporate earnings growth. It is one of the reasons growth and earnings has been so disappointing over the last five years. Joe all right, great stuff. Thank you very much, geoff dennis. Scarlet coming up, the bank of england gets ready to announce its Rate Decision<\/a> on thursday. We look at the odds of a rate cut. This is bloomberg. Mark im mark crumpton. Lets get to first word news. Forward to rick scott says there are genuine sections of the zika virus transmitted by mosquitoes. The new cases are clustered in the same neighborhood in Miamidade County<\/a> identified last week. The centers for Disease Control<\/a> and prevention have issued a new advisory saying pregnant women should not travel to that area and pregnant women who live there should take steps to prevent mosquito bites and sexual spread of the virus. The Democratic National<\/a> convention positive impression on americans than the republican convention, based on a new gallup poll. After the convention, 44 of the americans view to the Democratic Party<\/a> more favorably, compared to 35 who view the Republican Party<\/a> more favorably. 42 view the Democratic Party<\/a> less favorably versus 52 for republicans. In syria, all five people on board of russian transport helicopter were killed when it was shot down during the humanitarian mission. It was the deadliest single incident involving Russian Military<\/a> personnel in syrias civil war. So far there has been no claim of responsibility. In new york, and the eye electronics cap has pleaded guilty to funneling Sensitive Information<\/a> to china. He is accused of giving a chinese official photographs of documents displayed in a restricted area of the fbis new york office. Prosecutors are saying that that case is still under investigation. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Scarlet, back to you. Scarlet thanks so much, mark. Whatd you miss . We turn our attention to the bank of england. On thursday to be a we will announce its Rate Decision<\/a> and many are anticipating a rate cut following the countrys vote to leave the European Union<\/a> to lets get muchneeded perspective from Frederik Ducrozet<\/a> from bank pictet. He joins us by phone from geneva. Will a rate cut from the boe prevent a recession or supplementing fate to forcibly minimize the impact of a recession or simply minimize the effect of a recession . You know what, we just lost frederik on the phone. Lets go to the panel. Economic deterioration following the brexit vote will bear fruit. Joe we have surveys, instead of hard data. People are waiting for unemployment and real house price data. We have the surveys that tend to track pretty welcome including the pmi data can which i can bring up in one second. There is still definitely doesnt bring that up scarlet i mean, like you said, that is survey data, where the heart of data has not come up. Mark carney three weeks ago declines to cut rates, waiting for more hard evidence. Do we have it by thursday . Oliver what is interesting with the markets position, we were talking about this at the beginning of the show, there is physically 100 certainty on behalf of traders right now saying there is going to be a cut. Anytime that happens you start thinking about the risks. Is it going to be to the upside downside on sterling . Sterling basically flat after the dropdown post brexit. It opens itself to big moves. Maybe ity do cut but is by different amount or there is not additional twoyear stimulus measures announced as well. Scarlet if you go inside my bloomberg and look for the united kingdom, 98 on some a rate cut for august 4. You can take that back to, say, july 13, and the odds of the rate cut back then were 82 . Oliver exactly. Joe if you go inside my bloomberg, i brought up todays latest manufacturing pmi and i showed it in two ways. The blue bar is the month over month change. We have not had this is going back all the way. This is the biggest drop in years. The white line is the actual level of 48. 2, also the lowest level in several years. The key thing is this could be an overreaction. Purchasing managers, maybe they are all pessimistic with the brexit. But the fact of the matter is this data over time performs historically in line with gdp data. Scarlet well have much more on this and continue to discuss the implications of the expected rate cut. This is bloomberg. Scarlet the bank of england Rate Decision<\/a> is thursday and as promised, Frederik Ducrozet<\/a> of bank pictet joins us on the phone from geneva. As a practical matter, will a rate cut on thursday prevent a recession or only minimize the impact of one . Frederik very difficult to say in the early stages of the cycle. We dont have enough evidence and i think the bank of england doesnt have enough evidence to assess the full impact of brexit on business confidence, hiring decisions, investment. There is a strong case for the bank of england to be gradual and ease Monetary Policy<\/a> stepbystep. But then signaling also and that will be a key part of the meeting, key part of the statement, the communication aspect. They could do more in the future. For what is the argument the bank of england to go slow, to go gradual . Do you find argument compelling . Well, many arguments including the lax monetary trade,and post brexit immigration deals would look like, what is the fiscal policy that is another key aspect of the meeting. What the budget for the u. K. Will be in the next few years. We dont know anything. We know very little about the new government and i think the bank of england will be in a very difficult position because they need to base the decision on government policy and this government policy at this stage of the cycle is very unclear. Do you seederik, how their ultimate decision affecting markets where you have the pound still down 10 postbrexit . It has been pretty much flat. Has it reached the bottom, a stable point . What happens if the rate cut doesnt happen or if it is different from the expectations . on a shortterm basis it is almost a textbook case of this sort squeeze. If they cut by 2025 basis points, they could cut by little bit more. Cut by maybe 30, 35 basis points. As you said, maybe to try and avoid any negative reactions in the currency markets in particular. And then there is the case of the yield curve, which has been both lowered and flattened very sharply in recent weeks. That is difficult parameter to take into account. If the bank of england decides to resume qe, quantitative easing, as soon as this week, or in the next few months, then starting from such a lower and flatter yield curve is a different barometer to take into account. Boe frederik, what can be learn from what ecb has done with Corporate Bond<\/a> buying . Are there any jewels that the ecb has utilized which you think would make sense for the boe . Frederik yeah, definitely come in a very different situation. Of course, the bank of england told us already that it will likely use a combination of tools and it could, and should, in my opinion, include credit easing options. The bank of england has its own funding. They could use it in a slightly different way, maybe more generous in terms of the majority rates and conditions. They could include Corporate Bond<\/a>s in the Asset Purchase Program<\/a> if they decide to resume this program. That is part of the toolkit. Im not sure that makes a difference in the case of the u. K. , because there is not much of a stress in the Corporate Bond<\/a> markets or banking sector, actually, for that matter. Scarlet very quickly, frederik, what might make boe consider negative Interest Rates<\/a> . Frederik i think the governor mark carney was particular about that. Wesk of instability knew what happened the start of this year in japan and we see what happens in the eurozone so i dont think that is the case in the u. K. , no. Joe ok, Frederik Ducrozet<\/a> of banque pictet, thank you for joining us. Scarlet coming up, pat burke on the global connection between banks in china. [hip hop beat] olympics 2016, let me get you on my level. So you never miss a moment, miss a minute, miss a medal. Why settle when you can have it all . Soccer to wrestling. Track and field to basketball. Fencing to cycling. Diving to balance beam. All you have to sa is, show me, and boom its on the screen from the bottom of the mat, to the couch where you at . Show me the latest medal count xfinitys where its at. Welcome to it all. Comcast nbcuniversal is proud to bring you coverage of the rio olympic games. Mark im mark crumpton. Lets get to first word news. The United States<\/a> launched multiple airstrikes against the Islamic State<\/a> in libya. Says secretary peter cook the us likes were requested by lydias government of national accord. Peter they thought there were specific capabilities to bring to bear that they were limited in being able to connect and one of the things we are able to do is to conduct precision airstrikes in an urban area like this, reducing the risk of civilian casualties. Mark the airstrikes were the first by the u. S. On Islamic State<\/a> targets in libya since february. Republican president ial nominee donald trump is on the campaign trail today in the battleground state of ohio. Mr. Trump shared his views on relations with russia during a rally in columbus. Mr. Trump russia, like us, has nuclear weapons. It would be really nice if we got along with russia and others that we dont get along with right now, and what it it be nice if wouldnt it be nice if we teamed up with russia and others, including surrounding states and maybe nato, and not the hell out of isis . According to most recent polls, mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton<\/a> are in a virtual tie in ohio. The hot air balloon pilot involved in the fatal crash in texas over the weekend had at least 4 going driving conviction in missouri drunk driving convictions in missouri. He pleaded guilty to driving while intoxicated in st. Louis county in 1990, then twice in 2002, and another time in 2010. He also was convicted of a drug crime in 2000 and spent about a year and a half in prison before he was paroled. 16 people including the pilot died in the crash. The volcano was finally stopped spewing ash over mexico city and nearby areas after nine hours of her options. The activity began late sunday afternoon. The volcano has been interrupting periodically since 1994. Dayal news 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Scarlet mark, very oppressive, you were completely unfazed by the name of that volcano in mexico. The s p 500 retreating from a record high. The Dow Jones Industrial<\/a> average losing 27 points. A little firmer because of gains in health care and technologies. The real story is the drag created by crude oil during the bear market. Joe and while equities and oil sold off a little bit, we saw this selloff in treasuries and the u. S. 10 year yield ending close to the high of the day at 1. 51 . Oliver you brought out nasdaq, which is key because right now it is about to break its alltime high. Scarlet ah. Oliver it has been over a year and is about a 70basis point move away from its high. Doesnt seem out of the question that we might have it there. Scarlet something to keep in mind. An peoples bank of china as ounce it will expand access to the onshore market. Largest in the world after Hong Kong Hsbc<\/a> applauded the move and spoke about it as part of the hsbc china event. President and ceo pat burke joins us now. Great to see you. Thanks for coming in today. We are approaching the oneyear anniversary of china devaluing and positive vision in the markets and causing investors to reprice risk and help the different Asset Classes<\/a> correlate. One year later, our investors feeling comfortable with chinas approach and policy decisions since then . Pat i can certainly tell you that the clients we deal with whether they are the largest multinationals world we down to the middle marketsized companies in the United States<\/a>, they continue to want to do business in china. We see that some of the investment point of view and the ongoing trade story. Oliver one question, when you look at money flows right now, where investors are putting their money, the book seems to be stopping in the emerging market where, postbrexit, people were hesitant to invest in the u. K. A little bit pricey, though, so there have been a lot of flows in equities and Asset Classes<\/a> towards the markets. China is in this slowdown. Is that a recipe for correction . Pat i dont know if it is a recipe for correction but if you are in this for the long term, and i think most of the investors we deal with and the clients we deal with, they are thinking about this over a length of time. While there are currently some disruptions that you referred to, we dont see anybodys view of this that it is not the same Market Opportunity<\/a> that it always was. You have to be careful about navigating and what you are going to do but the interest is quite strong. We see significant levels of Revenue Growth<\/a> between what we call our china and u. S. Corners. That is both directions business into china and china into the u. S. Oliver when you are looking at those countries and sectors, you mentioned Revenue Growth<\/a>, but there are certain metrics you look at differently in terms of gauging the safety of investing in some of these assets . Pat no, we dont necessarily have a safety gauge we look at. There is not the number we would reflect to suggest what that might be. You can always look at currencies, obviously. Currency is a good gauge for sentiment. We dont really have any metric that tries to get on that issue. Joe what of the impact of politics on the future of the sort of financial integration, obviously, blasting china is a big thing on the campaign trail in the u. S. This year. There are questions about the new u. K. Governments eagerness to have the same financial relationship with china as the camera and administration had. How do you as the Cameron Administration<\/a> had. How do you see this affecting business . Pat if you see this through the lens of a client tried to do business in china, they are less concerned with the political arena and more concerned with what it means to their fundamentals and market opportunities. If we focus in on what is it that the clients are looking for, what is it they are trying to accomplish, everybody seems to have a bullish view about what to do and in many cases, how to do it. I would say there is no real change in sentiment from u. S. Investment. Scarlet how about deciphering the political tea leaves within china . There is some tension between xi jinping and how they want to pursue reform of the economy, whether you focus on growth or taking the pain it out to the economy in a structurally better position. Pat when you have memories that china is in this process of becoming an open economy. This is not going to happen overnight. We have seen a series of steps and initiatives the Chinese Government<\/a> have undertaken. They are not always gone smoothly. They have not always gone perfectly well. You have to what see underlying it all is the steady progressive march towards the open market. Of course, if you will, is not going to be one we change. You will continue to see the Chinese Government<\/a> work towards an open market with the currency being the latest example of that. Scarlet can you give us an example of where china has moved faster than investors expected . Pat so i think in the recent announcement in the United States<\/a>, which was done in early june, just the sheer level of the United States<\/a> as the Renminbi Clearing Center<\/a> now has 250 million, that was bigger than people thought. Only second to hong kong, which stands at 270 billion. When you think of the size of that income and investment now it is on the 92 to 1. 4 trillion it is on the magnitude of 1. 4 trillion. That number is growing fairly fast, fairly big. Oliver in the past years there have been developments in the chinese equity markets that have made investors nervous. One is figuring out where to put its and also very sort of maybe not aggressive but a very keen eye on u. S. Shortsellers in the markets. Is it as a fan to be in chinese equities . Save time to be in chinese equities . Pat again, you have to view it as this is a market that is not fully open. But it is a market that continues to work towards one we would be more familiar with. You have to, again, understand what youre trying to do and what your time horizons are. If you are in this for the long term you should not have hesitation. Scarlet what changes would investors like to see china a corporate in order for them to feel better about being much more active with investments in china . Pat im sure if he got into things including how frequently you can go for retention if youre in some of these quotas, the speed with which you can conduct of the transactions and trades, those would be areas that i think would be helpful to investors. They need to gain some level of comfort that there is indeed a sufficient amount of liquidity and paste in the market. Joe not that long ago there was a lot of anxiety about capital flows coming out of china. It seems like there is still that happening but people dont seem as concerned. From your perspective, as that reached a more stable equilibrium . Pat it has. This would be a good example of what i refer to as the state progress towards the open market. You sometimes have hesitation, where somebody in china, government or otherwise, may want to say lets stop for a moment and catch our breath and figure out what has happened and what we want to do is the next step. We see the pace moving forward to the opening. Hsbc president and ceo pat burke, thank you very much. Pat thank you. Scarlet a japanese finance minister says the yen good strength into 100 per dollar and provoke officials to weaken it. This is bloomberg. Scarlet i am scarlet fu. Time for the Bloomberg Business<\/a> flash. A new note from Goldman Sachs<\/a> says the new rally that pushed equities to alltime highs is downgrading stocks to underweight for the next three months, while keeping the neutral position over the next 12 months and staying overweight in cash. Goldman expects the s p 500 and stoxx 600 to fall about 10 over the next 90 days. Trance solar will be acquired for 1. 1 billion. According to a statement, the merger offer represents a 21. 5 premium to the Closing Price<\/a> on december 11 of last year, the last trading day before the company said it was considering going private. And pilots at Southwest Airlines<\/a> are calling for the ceo to be replaced. They say is focused on cost control has kept the carrier from investing in critical technology, leading to cancel flights and stranded passengers. Southwest struggled to recover after its Computer System<\/a> crashed, forcing flights to be grabbed. Scrubbed. Oliver whatd you miss . Japans government is set to release the details of the latest fiscal stimulus package tomorrow, were 273 billion. Will be the 25th dose of stimulus since the markets crashed in 1990 and fall is the minimal addition to monetary easing for the boj. Saidormer finance minister Prime Minister<\/a> shinzo abes fiscal stemless package is unlikely to halt the rally. Heoke on bloomberg spoke on bloomberg countdown. It is being already incorporated in the market. When the announcement takes place, i dont think it will have a major impact on any of the market. I think the yendollar it would tobably slowly appreciate 1100 yen. Do you expect us to go through 100 this week . It will probably had it to 100 and maybe with the matter of the next month or two. So if the current stimulus is very much priced into the market, we have also seen the bank of japan say they are going to review the impact of stimulus so far. Do you think, therefore, we are at the point where no more negative rights . Rates . Why do you think they have gone into review mode rather than do more stimulus now . They look at how things evolve and bank of japan may take more drastic measures in september, but this time the easing lead up to much smaller than the market expected. The market reaction, i would say , to the recent bank of japan decision was a disappointment. Can you give us your thoughts on helicopter money . Define it however you like, but do you expect to see japan to helicopter money, or is japan doing helicopter money already . , i dont like the but helicopter money, aggressive quantitative easing of Monetary Policy<\/a> is probably what they are aiming at this moment. Has easednk of japan Monetary Policy<\/a> continuously for the last two years, and i think the limit of the easing of Monetary Policy<\/a>, whether the effectiveness of the Monetary Policy<\/a>, has weakened somewhat. Manus what does it take in terms of fiscal stimulus what is the right combination of fiscal stimulus to really move japan towards 2 inflation target . , first of all, moving back to 2 inflation target is externally difficult. Probablyichard 1 is what he wants at this moment. Is he isw, she satisfied with the current condition of the japanese economy. At least he doesnt have any sense of crisis in terms of the japanese economy. Do we need to see a fiscal stimulus package . Give us the details of what it should look like to you. Eisuke i mean, Monetary Policy<\/a> during the course of the last two years has had some impact. But as i said earlier, the impact of the Monetary Policy<\/a> has been weakened so he has been stimulus onaying the physical side is necessary. The fiscal side is necessary. How much is not what he has really expressed. I dont have any exact number of what should be done. But problem with the japanese accumulatedis that thisll deficit is huge fiscal deficit is huge. Continuing on the fiscal stimulus is not really that easy. If one person is an achievable number, fiscal stimulus is difficult to do, what is the robust response for ofan if we run to the end the road on Monetary Policy<\/a> and using the question the ability to continue physical response, that takes structural reform. Failed . Omics eisuke growth rate of the japanese economy is more than zero, close to 1 . I think abe is expecting 1 growth rate for this year. I think it is quite satisfactory. Has innocence succeeded and it had that in a sense has in a sense succeeded and it has not failed. Joe thats the former japanese finance minister. Scarlet coming up, ubers operations merge in a deal that would value the new group of 35 million dollars. We will tell you what a board member thinks of this move. This is bloomberg. Scarlet i am scarlet fu. Whatd you miss . Uber is selling its operations to rival china operations to rival didi chuxing. It frees up uber to focus on other markets and possibly an ipo. Betty liu joins us with more perspective on this. It seems like uber is waving the white flag here. In the longes but run it is going to be a great benefit for uber. You hit the nail on the head and everybody is looking towards this ipo, including investors, and china had been this date not only money but time suck for the company. Alreadye lost millions battling over market share and it was only in the lower double digits. They were having a hard time in this market. As you recall a few weeks ago there were new regulations put in place over these ridesharing companies, which clarify things for the app but made it that much harder for uber to operate in china. For investors in uber, been made perfect sense and there was a little bit of a sigh of relief that it does clear the way for some sort of liquidity event and that would be an ipo. Joe it has become almost a cliche at this point that Tech Companies<\/a> in the u. S. , internet committees in particular, have a really hard time tracking china. Obviously, yahoo is most famous, then facebook. Betty even linkedin. Joe what was it that made china such a tough market for uber . Betty part of it was regulation, and the other part is just understanding how local consumers operate, right . It was interesting, earlier, bill gurley was on, who is an uber board member, he talked about their experience in china and i want you to hear what he said. Bill the company uber has immense respect for the Market Opportunity<\/a> in china. Very likely going to be the largest ridesharing market in the world. Betty i do want to mention that when i was in china last year i tried using uber and i didnt get to use didi chuxing but i did use uber, maybe because i was outside her. I found it hard to use. Invite a lot of cars available. I found the Location Service<\/a> difficult to navigate. Absi just ended up hailing c in beijing. I didnt use the local service that i was told by people in china that the local service is much better. Scarlet your experience probably bears that out. You are also looking ahead to sheehan or eight shoul shinzo abes announcement, or more details of it. Betty he dropped this big palestinians week ago following this not so big ball of stimulus big ball of the stimulus a week ago following this not so big ball of stimulus from the boj. The big question is how much of this is the money being pumped into the market, and it is all that much more important for him to have something that is going to get into the market. Oliver thanks so much. Bloombergs betty liu. 7 00 oncatch her at time on daybreak asia. Scarlet coming up, what you need to know for the trading day. This is bloomberg. Australiaerve bank of s Rate Decision<\/a> is tonight. Dont miss brazil production at 8 00 a. M. Eastern time. At 8 30 personal income expected to rise 0. 3 in june. That is all for what did you miss . Mark i am mark halperin. John i john heilemann. With all due respect to donald trump, the first rule of business is, its not what you know, but who you know. I have no relationship with putin. Ive never met him. I dont even know the president. Charles cross is a totally overrated person. They had a general named john allen, and he i never met him. Michael bloomberg knows nothing about me. 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