For you. At 9 30, we have our weekly brexit show ringing you all the news and conversations around the u. K. s vote to leave the eu. We speak to heathrow ceo John Hollandkaye and go through the markets and centralbank action. First to the markets. Two things you need to watch out for. Oil trading above 48 a barrel. The dollar paring some losses for the week as stocks decline somewhat in europe. They are also declining in asia. This is a picture for yen. Twice this week it went below 100. I dont do this very often, but i want to show you the south korean won. It slid to a low in the last five weeks. Lets get straight to the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. Nejra the u. K. Financial Services Industry has reportedly given up hope of universal access to the eu Single Market. According to the financial times, the city is speaking is seeking a bespoke deal with similar but stronger ties than switzerland. The paper says representatives from the industry will present their ideas to Prime Minister theresa may next month. Oil is set for its biggest weekly gain since march. Wti and brent have advanced more than 20 from an early august low. Speculation is growing that major producers may freeze output. A former Deutsche Bank risk has rejected a reward from the securities and Exchange Commission according to an opinion piece he wrote. He says it is disappointing that top executives retired with multimillion dollar bonuses and the ftc imposed fines on the shareholders instead of the managers responsible. He blew the whistle on the bank overvaluing a derivatives fully a. Two u. K. Companies have abandoned their pursuit of william hill after it rejected their increased 3. 1 billion pound bid. , the u. K. Takeover rules group cant make a hostile bid for at least six months unless someone else does. Day. News 24 hours a by nejra cehic. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you. It has been a week of pressure for the u. S. Dollar. San francisco fed president John Williams says septembers fomc is in play for a rate move as are all meetings. That is just a few days after he made headlines by calling for a new type of central banking. Fed Fund Futures Point to high gods at under 50 to hike od ds at under 50 on the year. Lets turn to our guest. With me for the next half hour is michael dell. Like, great to have you on the program. It has been quite a week. We had a lot of currency moves, said officials almost contradicting each other. Mike we think the fed are going to move this year. They are going to put one rate rise through, likely in december. The reason for that is we think you are starting to see wage pressures come through in the u. S. Finally. Now that unemployment is low, some people are concerned that if they dont move now, inflation could pick up and they would have to raise Interest Rates faster. Im, i spent a lot of time rereading what John Williams was proposing earlier this week. Basically we are in a new normal and everything Central Banks have done so far hasnt done much. Hes almost arguing that we need to forget the inflation target or raise it to 3 . Is that a good thing . Mike i think that is an issue for the long term. I dont think they are going to be raising the inflation target any time soon. That is more a theoretical framework they are discussing and thinking about for longterm plans. I dont think it would be a bad thing if they did raise the inflation target. We have superlow bond yields. A slightly higher target would allow countries around the world to gradually inflate away some of their debts. I dont think it would be the worst thing, but it is going to be a long time. Francine does it mean the fed would have to be really brave, because they would be the first ones to abandon what we have almost set in stone . Mike i think they just want to discuss it, but i think theres a lot of issues involved. It would be a huge move. I think it would take them quite some time to really get comfortable with all the implications of that. Francine so what you are expecting is one fed hike in december and what happens after that . Nothing until 2017 or 2018 . Mike i think the market is a little too pessimistic. I dont think it is impossible that you get another two rate rises. Francine but they are so dovish. Mike now that unemployment, you saw the minutes recently suggesting they think the u. S. Employment, that should start to put upward pressure on inflation. We think next time, there inflation will be pretty much at target. Then they are running out of excuses. Francine you mention something, they are running out of excuses. Has it felt like they are coming up with excuses . Hey talked about brexit, china i know they want to wait until they see the whites of inflation, so they are waiting for that wage growth, but should they have already raised rates . Mike i think they should have. The fed are coming up with excuses. This is a very dovish fed. I think the u. S. Economy is Strong Enough to withstand rate rises. The risk they mentioned in the minutes is by keeping rates this low, they risk inflating the sort of search for yield that makes people buy stuff at yields that dont make sense in the long term. Crisis,ook at the last one of the key causes was that Interest Rates were too low for too long. That led to a big buildup in debt. You are not seeing that this time around, but you are seeing people hunting for yields and certain securities being priced at a level which wont make sense if you take on a longterm view. Francine thank you so much, mike bell. Someone else thinks u. S. Rates will rise soon. Amen often accused of keeping them too low for too long. In an interview with bloomberg, Alan Greenspan says future rate hikes could be rapid. Stay with the pulse. Plenty coming up including Indias Economic future as the country considers who should be its next central bank governor. We look at the hopes and challenges facing the nation. Plus, we bring you an exclusive interview with south africas richest man and why hes buying british. And almost two weeks after the brexit vote, we will assess the u. K. Economic outlook and look at the winners and losers so far. We will be joined by the ceo of heathrow. This is bloomberg. Francine im Francine Lacqua in london. Lets get to the Bloomberg Business flash with nejra cehic. Nejra viacoms ceo steps down according to people with knowledge of the matter. They said the companys board has approved an agreement ending a legal dispute between doormen and controlling shareholders. Chief operating officer tom dooley will serve as interim ceo and could take the role permanently. Apple has it wrote locks in making major changes that would connect its watch to cellular networks. That is according to people with knowledge of the matter. The tech giant still plans to announce new watch models this autumn. Islionaire Paul Tudor Jones demanding that all his managers take more risk according to an investor letter obtained by bloomberg. It also said the legendary macro trader has boosted the amount of money hes mentioning managing. The moves are central to his shakeup of the business, which cut 15 of its staff. A spokesman declined to comment. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Francine thank you. With me this mornings mike bell. Taking we were listening to an era talk about tutor. Are we taking too little risk . He wants to take riskier bets. Is that the basis of the next crisis . Mike i think this is the point in the cycle where you dont want to take extreme risk. You want towhich have large risk on is when the economy is in a bad lease, but just past the worst point. At thee unemployment is high level and is starting to come down. Then you know youve got protracted time where the Unemployment Rate is going to fall steadily. Risk assets generally go up. Now that unemployment is very low, historically, that tends to mean youre not far away from the next recession. I think this is the time to be sort of scaling back some of those risks. Francine as an investor, you cant make money. Mike you need to balance the portfolio. Ultimately, that type of fund that can take bets against the market has more of a place in portfolios at this point in the cycle. You can be not just long equity and long bonds, but have something that can short the market to balance your portfolio. Francine hold that thought. The indian sovereign bonds rally hit a wall this week. That is as investors wait to find out who will become the new central bank chief. For more, our executive producer joins us from mumbai. Good morning to you. Who are the contenders to replace governor rajan . There are a bunch of them. It starts with the existing Deputy Governor patel who has been an instrumental part of the new structure. Hesr Deputy Governor also had significant experience in policymaking. Youve got a bunch of names doing the rounds at this point in time, starting with the chief Economic Advisor, the vicechairman of indias policymaking body, the former chief Economic Advisor and chief. Conomist at the world bank other than that, you have a couple bankers. The head of indias largest bank, all these names are doing the rounds. The markets have been waiting a while for that. What problems will his successor have to deal with . Speculation reports that rajan had to step down because there was too much political meddling. I think the new governor will have two challenges, inflation and new delhi. You have seen a spike in Consumer Prices of late. Managing inflation is going to be a primary task of the governor. The new governor is also going to be operating in an environment where there is an inflation target. So it is going to be a new governor, a new environment for the governor to operate in. Secondly, new delhi. Governor rajan [indiscernible] there is a section of government that believe Interest Rates should have been cut much earlier and buy a larger magnitude. That is going to be interesting to watch. On one hand, you have the challenge of ensuring macroeconomic stability, ensuring inflation is under control, and that you are managing the expectations of new delhi. Francine thank you for the update. Now lets get more thoughts from mike bell. India of course has its own set of problems. Rajan was considered one of the best central bankers. How much is India Different to other emerging markets . Mike it is different in that it is one of the few emerging markets that we think is going to deliver extremely strong growth over the long term. It is one of the emerging markets where we are most positive over the next five to 10 years. The loss of rajab is huge for india. As long as his replacement comes in and maintains the same kind of regime he had been running, hopefully that will be ok. But hes definitely a loss. Hes a guy that has been very positive for india. Francine what does a fahrenheit mean for emerging markets . Mike we think emerging markets can withstand one fed rate hike this year and the gradual pace we expect going forward. What becomes problematic for emerging markets in general is if the Dollar Strengthens meaningfully. Weve seen an inverse correlation between emerging markets relative performance to the rest of the world and the dollar. When the dollar goes up, emerging markets underperform. If the fed but Interest Rates up significantly faster, then that could cause Dollar Strength and weakness in the market. Francine we saw the taper tantrum two years ago. Are they in better shape than they were then . It just depends on whether the fed flags it properly and whether they are in a stronger place to withstand a fed hike, so we dont see defaults. Unfortunatelythat we are still in a position where a strong dollar is going to be bad for emerging markets. Our view is that the dollar is unlikely to strengthen meaningfully from here. We dont think the fed are going to put through a very rapid increase in Interest Rates. It will be gradual. That shouldnt be too bad for the emerging markets. The risk is that the dollar does strengthen meaningfully. The other thing is, commodity prices. Poor,ommodity prices are that is bad for emerging markets. The other thing which works in favor of emerging markets is the growth differential with developed markets. Markets11, emerging were strongly outperforming relative to developed markets. Then that growth differential narrowed. What we think now is that growth differential will at least stabilize and you could see it start to go slightly faster. That could support emerging markets. Francine thank you so much, mike bell. Up next, when the man who is building or buying pound land is not worried about brexit. An exclusive interview with south africas richest man about why hes buying british. This is bloomberg. Francine south africas richest man is buying british. Christo wiese is the chairman of the companys that we generally that recently purchased Virgin Active. Bloomberg news spoke to him in an exclusive interview about prospects for business following the brexit referendum, opportunities in africa, and global volatility concerns for businesses. Christo there are lots of things that everybody should be concerned about, the obvious one being this apparent split of terrorism, final and those him , the obviouslism disillusionment of the electorate in some countries with the socalled political elite. Those are worrying factors. If you see what has happened in the u. K. With brexit, the possibility that there may be a President Trump in the united states, or the problems that europe are experiencing, compared to what . Weve got our set of difficulties with which i would much rather deal then with some of the others. Happened to be in the u. K. A week or two after brexit. What was very impressive was in how short a space of time the brits managed to steady the ship. New Prime Ministers, new ministers with apparently excellent credentials, and making the right noises. And the ship had steadied. We are looking at common inwledge, at acquisitions the pacific rim area. But Virgin Active is doing it. Look as operations not in the u. K. , but in france, in germany, and in china. The point i want to make, there is no antisouth african or african buyers. In fact, the very opposite. Committedoup are very to south africa. We are afro optimists. We believe this country and in fact the continent both have a great future. But it is africa. You have to get in tune with the rhythm and you have to understand that it is a marathon, not a sprint. Francine lets get some final thoughts from my guest, mike bell, j. P. Morgan Asset Management global strategist. When you look at brexit, it seems that retail sales are good, everything is rosy, we are winning medals in rio, what brexit . Mike i think the fact that the u. K. Economy seems to be holding up in the shortterm doesnt give you a fair reflection of what is likely to come. If you look at the forwardlooking indicators, the forwardlooking indicators suggest the u. K. Economy is likely to slow quite meaningfully. Consumer confidence has fallen quite sharply. You see the Service Component with a new orders compartment of the service pmi has fallen sharply. Business confidence falling sharply. All these things suggest theres a pretty good chance of recession. Francine bad recession or lightweight . Mike likely relatively mild, but theres a fair chance you see two quarters of negative growth. Theres a chance that maybe we just skirt along close to zero growth. U. K. Equities actually have very little to do with the u. K. Economy. You see that in the performance since brexit. 70 plus percent of revenues come from outside the u. K. The weak pound is helping the u. K. Stock market. Francine thank you so much, mike bell, j. P. Morgan Asset ManagementGlobal Market strategist. Up next, our new show, brexit whats next. We speak to the heathrow ceo about what brexit means for his business. This is bloomberg. We will also talk about market movement. If you hear what j. P. Morgan Asset Management were just saying, it seems the market is being lulled in a false sense of security. Will it change . This is bloomberg. Francine welcome to our weekly brexit show live from london. Im Francine Lacqua. Every friday we wrap up the news , analysis, and conversation that will make you smarter about what is next for britain. This is brexit whats next. First up, lets get to nejra cehic. Nejra u. K. Inflation accelerated in the month after the brexit vote. Consumer price growth picked up 0. 6 from 0. 5 a month earlier. Import prices rose as the weak pound lead to the biggest jump in import costs since 2011. The u. K. Jobs market showed resilience in the face of brexit. 172,000 jobs in the Second Quarter and the Unemployment Rate held at 4. 9 . Jobless claims declined in july by 8600. U. K. Retail sales unexpectedly surged in july. Hot weather boosted sales of clothing and footwear. The drop in the pound encouraged tourists to snap up watches and jewelry. Big investment banks with their European Headquarters in london will start the process of moving jobs from the u. K. Within weeks of the government triggering brexit. That timeline is faster than their public statements will imply. Executive said to be assuming the u. K. Will lose passporting rights and will need two years to set up in alternate locations. The financial