Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20150526 : comparemela.c

BLOOMBERG The Pulse May 26, 2015

Revise Financial Aid today. It comes after they will not be able to make their payment by june 5. Yanis varoufakis has blamed creditors demand for more austerity for the lack of progress. Saying their guard government will not accept a cure. In a moment we go live to our international correspondent. Lets get the latest in athens. What is the state of bailout talks . It is another groundhog day in the greek crisis saga. The socalled brasses group have resumed talks today. The significant differences remain in areas including sales overhaul, labor market reform, and targets as the greek spokesman explained yesterday. The impasse continues for the fifth month. There are only five weeks left of the bailout. It reminds viewers at the end of next month, they extension that greece got in february for its bailout expires. After this, they will have no financing whatsoever. In this. , greece could strike a deal with creditors, have this deal approved by parliament and then lay the fine foundations for the new financing agreement which will succeed the current bailout. It is a lot of work to do and there is not much time. Francine nikos, bottom line, can greece haiti imf . In theory they can. As far as they know they have reserves. Several Government Party lawmakers including cabinet ministers have said that greece should not pay the imf. They shouldnt use depleting reserves on imf payment. It should use the payment and then the next payments on june 12, 16th and 19th two raise to predators. First of all, you dont want to mess with any second and most important, great banks use guarantees from the government. As collateral for emergency lifeline extended by the use ecb. If the greek state misses a debt payment, then the Central Bank Governors may conclude that these guarantees that great banks pledged are no longer reliable. That would mean severe severing the lifeline. That would force the greek state to impose a Long Bank Holiday followed by a draconian controls. It is a big price to pay. Great government spokesman said yesterday that greece will continue servicing its debts for as long as it can. We have no reason to doubt that. Francine thank you. Hans, with the latest from the german finance minister . Hans we heard from them over the weekend, he laid the problem squarely at the feet of the greeks. He said it was up to them to compromise. When you look at the statements they have been saying the same things in separate 20th, from the german side greece must implement the program may have a plan agree to. From the greek side, they simply wont do more austerity. If you think there is austerity in the program, by my reading there is, eventually they will come to head and the conflict will be out in the open and they will have a public rupture. Francine what do you make of the spanish elections . Were hearing from the Prime Minister today plot trying to explain his parties election results. Is it mayhem . Hans spain and greece are different. Syriza has a thin majority in greece, 12 feet majority and 300 seat parliament. In spain, you sell the popular ruling party go down to 27 . These were local elections. If these trends hold, at least in spain, the twoparty system could be in peril. You could have a four party system and have challenging prohibition talks. It is unclear who they want to govern. They would clearly be in the minority. The big difference is yes, but amos is gathering steam, they are nowhere at the level three does is that. Francine thank you so much. That brings us to a twitter question. Speculation about when the fed will raise rates for it where asking, will be euro slide back . You can tweet us. You can see their the pulse. We are joined by pimcos credit analyst. Inc. You so much for joining us. Can you give us a sense of what your take on greece is . There seems to be market fatigue. Are we going to have a default or not . Grexit negotiations are coming for a time. As we said, cash is running out at the end of the month. It is possible is enough cash for june 5. Either greece has to back down and agree to what europe once or stick with redline. I think ultimately a deal will be found. Both sides will probably compromise in advance of the imf payment. Partial disbursement, or increase in tbills would be possible. I think a default will be avoided, i cannot deny that it is possible a default will happen. In that case, the situation will precipitate with some capital control environment. The ecb increases haircuts on the bonds that greek greece uses as collateral. Essentially that would lead to instability. Francine what does it mean for your portfolio strategy . It is a situation of either negotiating tactics to the wire or not. As an investor who how you prepare for both . We are prepared as i said, the outcome will be benign. In a near time it will lead to weakening of the euro. I would look to this volatility ultimately. It is a story of growth of one and a half percent. Rick assets risk assets are still attractive. Francine you say that you are expecting the outcome to be benign. What are the chances of a possible default for example on international predators and not private . Is this a scenario that you have meddled . It is possible. The consequences of that are not massive. The main consequence would be a possible acceleration of the loans in response to imf control. They would probably not do that at that stage. The main consequence would be the ecb tightening up liquidity and leading greece to a capital control situation. With that lead to grexit or not . It could. I dont think it necessarily needs to. Under the pressure of capital controls by the government it is likely the government will turn around and find a deal. Francine from what we have seen in denmark, youre saying there are some deals because the eurozone is going up. Is there still an order and bonds . Why has the selloff happened . Markets were positioned one way. Everyone was on the qqq trade. Q e trade. Market makers are not helping investors who want to trade. Is it over . Probably not far from over. Fundamentals could justify a somewhat higher bond yield. Even when you take into account the pimco view, low Interest Rates. Lets not forget the power of qe. We have the central bank with 60 billion of assets of month. Essentially, bonds are being drained from the market. The selloff is probably not far from over. Francine as terms in terms of eurozone growth, your exciting growth to be sustained . When you look at the reality with such a weak euro and low oil prices, is this just a little bit of a blip or do you think the trend is towards slow growth . We should not get overexcited. 1. 5 growth is not extremely exciting. It is sustainable. Trend growth in the eurozone is probably 1. 2 . I think we can have it for a while. We have had such a depression for so long. We had ecb qe coming to an end. As you said we have oil prices the weaker euro which will probably be sustained thanks to the qe. I think we can grow at this pace for a good couple of years. Maybe three years if no shocks. Francine no big shots. Shocks. Here is a look at what else is on a radar. Ryanair year earnings of jumped 66 . Profit jumps. Ryanair has been working on a softer approach to Customer Service. A former trader has arrived at the crown court in london where he is set to become the first person to face trial for alleged liber rigging. He is accused of eight counts of perjury to manipulate liber. We will be live at the court later in the show. Charter communications is near an agreement to buy Time Warner Cable for about 55 million in cash and stock. That is according to people familiar with the matter. Charter pay about 195 a share. Chinese stocks have surged to the highest level since 2008 on optimism over the government plan to use foreign access in its market. The shanghai composite is up. We will be taking you to the crown court in london as the first person to face trial for allegedly libor rigging makes an appearance. Were joined by a member of the greek party and her take on a possible consequences of a grexit. And then a new report on the age of billionaire Wealth Creation is set to level off. How David Cameron is said to be trying to win over european leaders. More on that next. Francine welcome back to the polls. The u. K. Prime minister, David Cameron is spending this week trying to secure reforms ahead of the referendum on britains membership of the eu. Mr. Cameron has said the european president at the residence. Lets get more on this. What does this signal in terms of timing . To me this signals that he is trying to find a way to move the referendum forward. At the moment it is promised to take place by the end of 2017. Obviously with David Cameron they are keen to move that forward to possibly next year. Francine what are the obstacles . The problem is he needs to get agreement from all the other eu members on the reforms that he wants to achieve. This means he has to get an agreement from eastern europe. He has alienated a lot of the european governments because of his comments about migration and benefit terms of migrants to the u. K. He has to be on a serious Charm Offensive to undo some of the tensions that we saw before the elections. Francine in terms of reform and renegotiation, what do we think is possible . People are saying that treaty change will not happen. What we might see is some kind of protocol, im kind of deal that suggests we make a change in the future. Francine thank you so much. Were back with pimco analysts. In terms with how you play the u. K. And guild when looking at the referendum, this may be put forward, but it does not give them enough time to renegotiate. How do you put it on the bond market . Somehow the market has been expecting that. What does it mean for guilds . Uncertainty will not be good for the pound. It could lead to a fall in yield. Uncertainty could weaken the economy. The bank of england could be less prone to increase Interest Rates. I dont think the gilt market will necessarily trade on a referendum right now. More importantly, it is what the bank will actually do and how the cycle plays out. Francine are we expecting an Interest Rate rise in 2016 . I would say in the middle of 2016 is the earliest. We should have the fed hiking and a second half of the year. The bank of england will likely lad by six months at least. Couple of reasons why, currency has been strengthening. The currency has a bigger impact on the u. K. Than the u. S. Economy. The u. S. Has a larger economy. Secondly we has fiscal tightening coming up in the u. K. We have a deficit of 5 still. This is early in the electoral cycle. Governments want to frontload austerity so they do not ruin the Electoral Campaign later. The third reason is essentially inflation has been very low in the u. K. If you look at inflation it has been 0. 8 . It has been closer in the u. S. Francine how much do you look at productivity . This is one thing we have been trying to figure out without success. We have is productivity puzzle in the u. K. Is because of regulation on the Banking Services . Its not where it should be or is it something deeper that will have to be addressed in the coming term . The Banking Sector could be part of it. I dont think it is necessary the explanation. It is not just the u. K. , it is a global level problem. It is been particularly week in the u. K. , question here is of the week productivity is connected to the strength of the labor market. We have seen growth improving in the u. K. That is labor focused. We have had low wage inflation, for companies that has been worth more to higher more relative to using more capital. Some of it as a substitution of labor and capital. Francine thank you so much. Coming up, how ryanair and their softer approach to Customer Care seems to be paying off. Francine welcome back to the polls. Lets turn to airlines now. The budget carrier ryanair reported a 66 drop in earnings this morning. The company ceo spoke to bloomberg and he says the strategy to grow their Customer Base is working. I have to say first and foremost it is not about the business traveler. At the moment, depending on the various airport, 27 of our passengers our business. Not all of them are business plus, that is the challenge for us to convert 10 of our passengers to business class. Francine lets get more from our business reporter. There was a big jump, that was due to them being more friendly with customers. Kari they had just more than 90 million passengers. They were increasing capacity adding more planes in the winter season and filling of those planes. They load factors, their measure of how full the planes are jumped to 83 . They are doing a good job at selling those seats. It does see the things they have been doing have been working. All of the things feet into improving the image. Francine what is the outlook . Kari the focus is on ryanair and easyjet. There are optimistic. Theyre looking at 100 million passengers. Profits up again. A little bit under the one billion euro expectation. It is early in their Financial Year. Their Financial Year ends in march, it is still early and their cautious. Last year ryan air raised their guide five times. We could expect some tweaking as the year progresses. Francine what about aer lingus westmark kari we should be hearing something today on this deal. From what we understand, the Irish Government has gone to the eu to see what they would feel about a deal between i. T. The Parent Company buying aer lingus. Today the cabinet is discussing the deal. We shall see. 19 girl francine thank you very much. Were back in 2. [baseball crowd noise] [x1 chime] [crowd cheers] oh i cant believe it [cheering] hi, grandma francine welcome back to the pulse. Here are the top headlines. The u. K. Prime minister, David Cameron has met to discuss renegotiating the terms of the membership of the eu. It kicks off a weeklong to her and which cameron will meet other leaders. While he meets the danish Prime Minister on thursday. Polands president elect to just defeated the incumbent in the first round of the paul earlier this month but not by enough to declare victory. A second round of voting on sunday will ensure that he takes over as president to. Nigeria fuel negotiators are putting an end to shortages. Fuel suppliers held back because they said they were still owed money by the outgoing government. Dealmaking between u. S. Cable Companies Look set to continue. Charter communications is set to being closed to buying Time Warner Cable. Caroline hyde is here with the latest. What is the story . Caroline pretty phenomenal in terms of a price point, also in terms of a smaller Company Buying a much better fish. We have the price tag of 55 billion that is how much Charter Communications will be putting on Time Warner Cable. That is a nice premium. 100 95 per share. The bulk of that will come in cash, about 100. The rest will be made up in stock. Or is the option for shareholders to up the amount of cash to 115 per share and slightly less dock. The reason they want to pay out the premium first of all, scale is bigger. Charter communications is the biggest fourth biggest player. They would snap up the second biggest player. They would be quadrupling customers. They would be second to comcast. It is about scale, that gives the more leverage when negotiating contracts with television networks. Interesting action went on last week. We have patrick draw he of all teeth altice buying a sudden link, the Second Player in the u. S. He want to scale too. Altice saying they want half of all revenues coming from the United States. Half of their money to come from the u. S. They are chatting with time warner as well. Suddenly this lights a fire underneath the rival billionaire patrick to rocky one side and john malone on the other. Clearly he has been looking at what the price point helps them do. It helps him notably he would be funding the deal. He would be flexible with the money. John malone was fun to the deal to about 5 billion worth. Difficult for altice to get on top of that price. They have less financial flexibility. They feel that 14 premium is to not only gain scale, but also fight off the rival bid coming from john malone who has actually meant toward Patrick Drahi. You have a breakup fee of 2 billion. That is recognizing the antitrust concerns. Time warner cable has already been bid for this year. They were meant to have merged with comcast, but that deal was shut down because of regulatory concerns. How now does john malone and charter try to woo the regulators into thinking this is a good deal for the consumer. It seems from analysts altice plus time warner would be a better fit for regulatory concerns. As far as financial power, you have to hand it to john malone. Francine thank you very much. A former trader is in court this morning he is the first person to face libor reading. Ryan is in london. Brian, tell us about this trial. Ryan tom hayes arrived with his wife about an hour ago. His trial, the first really in the libor trials is set to begin in 15 minutes. That is when they will have jury selection. It has been a long time coming. Three years ago he was arrested three years ago the fraud squad in the uks looking into the alleged rigging of libor. He is facing a counts of the indictment, all of them alleging he conspired with colleagues in the Banking Industry to break or attempt to rig rates for the bank, and his own economic interests. He pleaded not guilty two years ago, ever since then he has been out on bail. Today he appeared here. It should go for 12 weeks area this is a big one. This is serious. If he is guilty, he could be looking at 10 years in prison. Francine the banks paid close to 4 billion 4 billion pounds in science. Now we are reminded of libor, where does th

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