guy: the plan may be considered if the greek government fails to convince its creditors that it can secure more funds. a former ecb president spoke to bloomberg. >> nobody is optimistic, frankly speaking, on greece. we have to be totally realistic and it all depends on maturing of the position of the government understanding that in any case if it wants to deliver growth and jobs, which is the main goal of that government, it has to produce recovery program that inspires confidence to the international community. guy: jean claude trichet speaking in singapore. francine: seems pretty candid. for more, we are joined by one of our reporters. standard chartered bank's chief economist. how do you interpret what the our bloomberg scoop about the ecb? >> you have to present some reforms and you have to do this as soon as possible. the may 11 europe meeting may be the last date this is acceptable so that greece can present a full list of reforms that bode well with what they want to see. i think they are saying enough is enough. at the moment, you have to understand that the ecb by 74 billion euros, the greek banking system, it keeps it afloat. at the moment, with the decree that was passed yesterday by the hellenic republic, 2 billion euros are going to be transferred to the bank of greece. the ela buffer is going to be down to one billion euros. that is a small amount of money. guy: how ywould you read the situation? the pressure has been put on greece from every quarter. the germans are saying, we do not expect the deal. the ecb maybe taking about increasing haircuts on the ela. put all that together for me. >> i think it is increasing the pressure on both sides actually. it is not just greece. i think we should be in a situation where both would want and desire a solution. and the ecb is simply telling them that we are running out of time. you cannot expect us to keep giving you more and more time. the ecb has been fantastic in the way it has managed the crisis over the past three years. they have given a lot of time to government and politicians with her omt back in 2013 to do the right thing. and politicians have government have simply not delivered. the sooner they come up with some sort of agreement, the better. but so far, europe had not missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. francine: very well put. if you look at the timeline -- but these keep on changing. we do not know how much money greece has. i was a report from one of our economists say may have until july the end because it is unlikely the ecb will do anything with the ela until he cannot repay the money is to the ecb. that comes july 20. would that be a fair assessment? >> i think so. i think they might be able to gather enough cash to the next few payments during the next two months. for the july payments, 7 billion euros, there's simply not enough cash. there will need to be a plan before the. guy: are the local of these and the central government working hand-in-hand? -- are the local authorities and the central government working hand-in-hand? >> the mayors of large cities have expressed discontent in this decision. however, there is not much to be done. they have to put the cash in the bank of greece. francine: sometimes it is difficult as a participant to understand the implications of politics. how likely is it that we go -- because there is a faction within the seed of the party that is against everything the government is doing at this point. >> the radical left sees a way for greece outside the euro. and they have been saying it openly. tsipras tries to maneuver between them and what the creditors are looking for. there is a very interesting opinion poll that just came out today in the papers. it shows that positive opinions for how the government is dealing with the bailout talks is less than 50% right now. this is down from 75% a month ago. so, as a greek default looms, probably elections or a referendum about staying in the euro is the only solution to go. guy: let me quote you back one of your research notes. if greece goes, can portugal stay? >> i think it is going to be difficult for other countries as well. fundamental building block of the common currency is that it is irreversible. we had pegs before the euro. it was never sustainable because it was not irreversible. if an arrangement can be reversed, it will be reversed. the euro was supposed to be forever. if one country leaves, why can't another? i think the question will come to the markets, who's next? it changes the nature of the euro. and we can never go back to what it used to be. it is not forever if one country leaves. guy: so, onto the question. can portugal stay if greeece goes? >> i do not think there will be an immediate effect. if greece begins to recover after it needs, why with the electorate, why would the country put pressure on their own countries? the the policy of austerity is not working. they acknowledge the cure the europeans have subscribed and it has not worked. francine: i'm sure the germans would beg to differ. that is another conversation altogether. mario is staying with us. we'll be talking about the fed next. guy: for more on greece let's go to hans nichols. you spoke to president obama's top economists. what impact does he think greece 's plight could have on the world economy? how seriously is he taking? hans: he said president obama is dedicating quite a bit of time. what jason furman was getting at is the risk is unknown and they do not even want to take that leap into the unknown. mr. furman: i do not think it in his experiment we want to run. i do not think we ever want to know the answer to that question. if they don't greece and the institutions, do not find it -- find a path forward, it would not just be terrible for greece. it would be a risk the global economy should not want to take justice things are starting to work or getting growth going or getting out of that crisis. we do not want to see what would happen. hans: now, he went on to say that there is a lot of work that needs to be done, that both sides on the technical talks need to roll up their sleeves and get to work. a lot of work it should've been done at this point should have already been done. he was very clear on that point. when we think what changed in the last 5, 6, 7 days, we were supposed to solve this on april 24 over the weekend at those imf meetings. that got kicked back hurt now we have a report that maybe greece can last until july. it is interesting to see how these deadlines shifting. yet a lot of the technical work simply has not been done. francine: what about the possibility of the ecb curving that support for the greek banks? hans: this is a fantastic scoop on the frank for. the more interesting part of this is they are getting maybe some dissension within the ecb governing council that their main after a unanimity. there may not be appetite. at least there is some dissension among ecb board members about continuing to increase ela. it was down two months ago maybe six weeks ago. around the 60 million range, right? now all of a sudden we're in the mid-70's. they have been doing it incrementally, but the idea that greek banks or anyone who landed with the banks could be punished and not have that as collateral that is something new. that gives you the sense the ecb might be trying to increase pressure on the politicians in greece to get something agreed to by may 11 may 12, whatever the deadline may be. francine: hans nichols there. guy: what else is on our rater? -- on our radar? kaisa is the first - to default on its u.s. debt. it was unable to find the money. the company's founder indicated today that he has no pl;ansans to alter his plan's stake in the developer which would save it from liquidation. francine: what could be the pharmaceutical industries greatest takeover this year. teva could make a public bed as soon as today. guy: rupert murdoch's european pay tv provider reported earnings. the company says the nine-month revenue rose 5% as it signed up the most customers in the uk in 11 years. sky also benefited from record growth in germany and austria. francine: we will head to zürich and her from the credit suisse ceo. guy: plus we will hear about the competition commissioner about last week's antitrust decision against google. francine: we will hear from mary j blige produced in the u.k. join us on twitter guy: we want to know how many of these chinese mega cities have you ever heard of? ♪ >> decisions on monetary policy such as the timing of liftoff will depend on how the economic outlook is involved with respect to the labor market and inflation. guy: welcome back to "the pulse ." that was billed on the speaking at bloomberg yesterday. francine: credit squeeze earnings -- credit suisse earnings due out today. we spoke to the ceo. manus, is the market more interested in wealth management or investment banking? manus: the re-rating has taken place. the trade activity has been good to the investment bank. the one good piece of news is the fixed income is up. that is what the market is going to focus on. when it comes to equities. nowhere near what you saw the kicker for goldman sachs -- their equity business was up. to that end, i think the market is released. i thought about it. what was it? it was brady dougan's last supper. there were no fireworks. there was nothing indigestible. but dessert is on the way in the form. what to do with wealth insurance and what to do with the investment bank? the market is relieved that credit suisse got a kicker from both sides of the market. francine: sounds like a medieval feast. guy: knoiwing t.j., it could be an interesting one. manus: that is a really important point just before you ask the next question. asked income is their number three in fixed income. they cannot say, do a ups. ups was never in the position. they are stalwart in the equity position. ripping apart the investment bank is not necessarily the immediate answer for them. guy: we will see. he is a man that likes asset management. i take your point about the fact that they have a decent presence. let's talk about some of the spaces in which they have been doing well. everybody is more and more nervous about the fixed-income space. is dugan one of those? manus: he is. the two big stories are the federal reserve and greece. in the last 24 hours in the news you brought from the ecb that they're thinking about putting back liquidity. i was trying to gauge because dugasn is a markets man. where are the biggest risk for markets? dugan: in the near term, greece is one of the things that is preoccupying people now. i think in the longer term, the issue is going to be interest rate. when interest rates start to rise and the impact that is going to have. we have been a long period of low interest rates. i think a higher interest rate environment is owing to take some adjustment. so, in the longer run, that is the bigger issue. when that will actually take place is anybody's guess. manus: do you share jamie dimon's concern about the volatility in the market? is that something you'd consider? dugan: i think a lot of the changes we have undertaken to make the regulated segment of the industry safer have wrought on changes to market structure. i think we have seen the impacts of that. i think some of those concerns are legitimate. manus: there is no doubt about it. dougan comes from the bond market. he and jamie dimon probably thinking the same way about risk. francine: thanks so much. we are back with the standard chartered global chief economist. one of the big unknowns. it is not true. it is not an unknown. it is when the fed will raise interest rates. how much of it is priced in? >> it happens across the board. we know about things and then we are shocked when they do happen. i think the fed is communicating very clearly. it is preparing the market for a hike. we see the first hike in september this year. but i think the most important thing will not be the timing. it will be where do they take rates? how fast todo they hike? in the current economic environment, both in the united states and globally, i am not too sure the fed can hike aggressively. i think they have to be careful with the timing and the rate of the hikes. they should keep rates lower for much longer. fed fund rates going to 2% by 2017. and staying there. the risk is if they do too much too soon, they will derail the recovery. there are many examples of central banks across the world who have done that. then they regretted it. guy: what are they going to worry about? what other metrics they are going to judge how they proceed with? >> the economy showing strength right now but at the same time, the smoking gun of inflation is not really there. so why should he be hiking too much when there is not a problem you need to be tackling? some people might say inflation would raise and they should be preemptive. i do not think they should. the risk of hiking too soon to fight a problem that does not exist -- guy: goiloil prices are going to hike. >> let's wait for inflationary pressures. the risk of hiking too soon, you end the recovery. the end of waiting longer, you can catch up later. a little bit and inflation in the current environment and the world is not going to be the biggest problem. remember, 25 central banks have cut interest rates in this quarter. things are not as robust as some people think. and the risk is a might end up doing too much too soon. we think they will not, but that is the main risk i have in my mind now. francine: so it is good to flag it out to the markets it to the fed if they are watchings. thanks for joining us. guy: right. out of egypt -- mr. morsi has been sentenced to 20 years. teva at a possible bid for mylan when we come back. ♪ guy: welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." news from each of. -- from egypt. a case just been concluded related to the ex-president mursi. francine: to find out whether or not he was guilty of inciting protesters across egypt in 2012. he was facing the death of the and he has gotten 20 years in prison. guy: more on that later in the program. let's stay in the region but delivers corporate news coming out of israel. teva is preparing, we think, and unsolicited offer for rival mylan. in what could be the pharmaceutical industry's biggest takeover of the year. elliott gotkine has more. teva's bid could come out as early as today. is it that far advanced? elliott: that is what we understand. investors seem to think we are reaching towards the deal. they have been pushing teva shares up 2% today. we look at a sense of where investors and this is going when u.s. begins trading. an israeli company listed in the united states. this deal were not only be teva's biggest acquisition. it would also be potentially the biggest deal in the pharmaceutical industry this year. we have seen a flurry of deals looking at how to cut cost and raise prices. teva trying to offset a potential drop-off in revenues from its against selling drug which could face generic competition as early as this year, including from mylan. francine: thank you. elliott gotkine and television. coming up, the anti-competition commissioner. hear what she had to say about google and gas pump. -- gazpromm. guy: find us on twitter. let us know your shop -- your thoughts on the show. ♪ francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live oin london. i'm francine lacqua. guy: i'm guy johnson. francine: loreal reported a 14% increase in first-quarter sales. as a weaker euro helps compensate for sluggish growth in western europe. guy: sky reported a 5% rise in nine-month revenue in a surge of new subscribers. adding th emoe most uk customers and 11 years. -- in 11 years. francine: european union leaders were hold an emergency summit to address the growing humanitarian crisis in the mediterranean after a boat carrying hundreds of people capsized off the libyan coast. >> the mediterranean, it's drama tic. it cannot continue. we cannot accept hundreds of people die when trying to cross the sea to europe. this is why i have decided to call an extraordinary european council meeting this thursday. this is why i traveled to the region two weeks ago. the objective for the summit is to discuss at the highest level what we the eu institutions together canada must do to alleviate the situation n-- can and must do to alleviate the situation. guy: across the road, the competition commissioner vestager has been making her way. she is over in the u.s. they talked about the antitrust action that the eu has launched against google. she was asked what google could do to settle the action? commissioner vestager: they would not have to because google has now almost 10 weeks. >> i understand that, but if they were to make a settlement offer. what would be set as three? commissioner vestager: i would like to see competition to flourish, to make sure -- >> they have to agree to do something. olivia: right now what do you want google to do? commissioner vestager: not to give referential treatment to one of their own services. let others showed what they can offer to customers. >> with their be a financial penalty in addition? commissioner vestager: what we're interested in is for customers to get the best possible products and, of course, to have an innovative marketplace. >> the investigation you are pursuing over android would you consider that more serious, more challenging, more complicated than the when you have over google shopping? commissioner vestager: it is very complicated but it is very open. we have an in-depth investigation. we do that with an open mind because even though we have very strong complainants, we should listen and look at the market. we should look at how things work before we make up our minds. francine: for more on what vestager's comments on google mean, let's go to jeff hayden in brussels. how do you think google will respond to this? jeff: it's hard to tell this point, but it is very clear what vestager wants at a minimum. she said she kind of danced around it that she said she wants -- he does not like having google shopping at the top of every search result the comes back on google. she says, if it is warranted that is fine. and if not, her research has shown that it is always google shopping at the top. it seems like a minimum, she wants assurances that google shopping is not there every time you do a search on the google website. but google has until mid-june to come back with a response. vestager's been diplomatic. she is not trying to tell them what to do. she is try to work with them and trying to enforce the law and not dictate how they should run their business. guy: ultimately, it may come down to that jones. if we look at negative outcome, how bad could it get for google? what is the risk they are running here? jones: ultimately, they could, the eu could fine them 10% of annual global revenue in this sector. google does not disclose what that figure is. so it is hard to tell from a monetary point of view what the risk is. but there is also the risk that vestager could expand the investigation. this is what they did with microsoft over about 10 years of antitrust investigation into them a while back. and it ended up costing microsoft $2.5 billion in fines. here with google, she has talked about mapping. she has talked about flight searches. she talked about hotel searches as potential niche markets that she could expand the investigation into. guy: jones, thank you very much. jones hayden joining us from brussels on the google investigation. today a big day for google. francine: as we were just hearing from jones, this comes a week after the eu accused google of favorite in comparison shopping websites. if you do a google search certain things will be written off of they are not mobile from the. guy: i have checked it out. it is in action. certain sites that would normally come up as number one on search now may not. because, as you say, maybe it has the web address to close together. francine: so we are not suggesting me eu will have a look at this, but what experts are saying is that makes it so much more difficult for google to be investigated because these algorithms change all the time. guy: bloomberg spoke to the competition commissioner about gazprom. the commissioner is expected to charge them tomorrow for breaking antitrust regulation. vestager told bloomberg the eu is looking at gazprom's pricing. commissioner vestager: we're looking at customers are getting the best prices of if it's using its strength to get different prices for different customers. and of course, we would like to look into that because it means quite a lot for a country if it pays more for his gas than maybe it ought to do. >> how much harder is it for you together this kind of information from a russian company versus another country? commissioner vestager: one of the things i find very promising is, of course, that this is a very commercial company. it does its business as other businesses. as of of course it should. because it is in the market. it is a competitive market. but still, it is a market where gazprom is very dominant because it is a very large company. francine: for more on gaz prom, let's bring in ryan chilcote. give us a sense about the politics. this would be a loaded investigation. ryan: it would. you have to think about this complaint we are going to get tomorrow as part of the larger struggle geopolitical between the european union, which is consuming russian gas, gets 1/43 of its gas from russia and russians. . it has been three years since we sell rates on company that use or consume gazprom's gas. it has been a year since the charges have been ready. why are they coming up, just as tensions over ukraine are easing, just as the european union is reviewing whether they should rule over sanctions against russia? this is going to antagonize the russians. the real issue is exactly what is the complaint going to be when we get it tomorrow at 11:45 ofr noon central european time as the eu tends to do. you heard jones talk about how they could penalize gazprom by as much as 10% of their global revenue. revenue outside of russia. that would be a big chunk of change. are they seeking to penalize, fine them 10% of the revenue in europe? what years? the detail is in this. but on the surface, the russians are going to say this is more tit-for-tat. warfare in what they see as an economic front against russia. guy: a political weapon is an interesting subject particular as gas prom management depart for athens. ryan: energy russia's critics would say, can be used as a weapon or a carrot. in the case of greece perhaps it is more of a carrot because the greeks are pathetic to the russians. there are two things that -- greeks are more sympathetic to the russians. there are two things that they're going to discuss with the prime minister. one is surprise, surprise discount for the greeks. this is something you heard the competition commissioner talking about. it's bad when you have to pay more than other countries for gas because gazprom does not cut you a deal. and the expectation is that the greeks would get a deal because at the end of the day, russian exports to greece are 1% of gazprom's total exports. it is no big deal for them and it could be hugely meaningful for the greeks. the other thing the greeks are hoping for and they talked about this quite a bit is that maybe the russians would even kick the greeks some cash in advance to $5 billion. the greeks said they are ready to play their part as an energy hub in the turkish stream project, that used to be called the south stream project before the russians killed it. about them some getting gas directly to bulgarian. now the greeks are saying we would be happy to have that pipeline. we have known objective -- no objection. are only objection is give us the money so we can build it. it can't be called circus stream -- turkish stream, because that is not palatable in athens. guy: sky has the most customers in over a decade this last quarter. we will bring you the numbers when we come back. ♪ francine: welcome back to "the pulse." guy: sky is among the days best performers. with more is bloomberg's caroline hyde. it's now standing bullish on the numbers. caroline: more than $10 billion to bring in the italian and the german unit and now we are seeing sky shares trading at the highest level since 2001. clearly the number seven press. -- have impressed. they are starting to hike up the amount they charge the customers, but they have also been splashing their cash i knew football right. they are going to be spending 1.4 billion pounds puryear for the next season of football because it is all about content. they are managing to reduce churn. their customers very impressive. 242,000 avid. they now have an excess of 20 million users. they say the growth is far exceeding where was this time last year. they seem to be on a bit of a roll. . francine: the uk is an area of growth. is it surprising given that we have so much competition? caroline: we have virgin media owned by the competitor that is liberty global john malone. they do fight it every font when it comes to your. uber murdoch -- rupert murdoch the controlling owner of sky. they are getting into the mobile space. we have seen sky trying getting -- to geti into offering mobile contracts as well. but that does not come online until 2016. behind the curve when it comes to other companies. it is that dream scenario of the quadruple. we want not only our phone and our mobile but also our broadband all under one person all under one company. they do sound bullish. they say they have standout performance and the u.k. customer satisfaction is up. the lowest churn and 11 years. germany and austria, also record high levels. guy: think you very much, indeed. francine: for more on sky we are joined by the head of european media research. ian, great to have you on the program. it has been able to attract new customers. ian: you look at the customer numbers, they look impressive. they are talking about u.k. in ireland growth. the best in 11 years. you look at record growth in germany and austria. italy the best in three years. from a customer standpoint number, they are doing externally well. they are selling more and more products to customers. so, from that standpoint, very good. the one potential fly in the ointment is the revenue they are getting for customer. what's interesting is that you are seeing that even though the average number of roddick sold -- of producst sold to customers -- what they are getting from customers is flatlining. that raises questions. that has something that has been going on for the past exporters.-- past six quarters. guy: competition will be growing. they are losing and gaining some all rights -- from football rights. how hard is it to retain customers? ian: it is angetting increasingly harder. bt will have the championships league. you have not had a major marketing push from bt. it is a calm before the storm. they expect a bump in the road for q1 from the introduction of that. the question is for subscribers, what do subscribers -- when do they say they go to bt? or for those customers who like sports where do they say us wish to bt? do i care about all the other programming? in most describe -- mose subscriber' minds, it is not something they are thinking about now. its month times, it will be different. francine: germany has declined and so has italy. ian: those two countries are interesting. if you look at italy, they are starting to his table life in terms of subscribers. italy is a pure economic issue. the economy is wewak. they have issues in the south of italy -- the economies weak. if you take germany, a different issue. most households get a cable as part of rent. it has been hard to actually build up pay tv. bear in mind, one of the main catalyst for people to take pay-tv's instruction is when they buy a house. wfrom a wider, secular standpoint you look at household formation in the u.k. and in germany and italy slowing down from where it has been. so, there's a competition issue but there are number of other issues they face. guy: i am the head of the m&a team and i am looking at sky and i am one of a number of potential acquirers. what do i make of these numbers from my point of view? ian: you would say it remains a very good asset. they still have the ability to attract subscribers. i thought the new slow would have gone the speculation surrounding vivendi. looking at sky. if you look at the news flow vivendi was looking at sky. the issue from an m&a standpoint, who also look at it but vivendi? u.s. media giants, there are signs that subscriber numbers are starting to come off. the question then comes, is somebody like vodafone invested? i think for vodafone, it is one question whether play actually works as a concept. the only market it works is france is because the companies have equality of access to content. other markets not so. our feeling is that vodafone if i had the choice between buying sky and buying virgin media. liberty would make more sense than buying sky. francine: thank you so much for joining us. guy: right, here are more of the top stories. ibm's first quarter and earnings beat first-quarter estimates. those estimates had been lowered after the company's ceo said last year that ibm could fall short of a profit gold. -- profit goal. francine: loreal reported a 14% increase in sales in the first quarter. the growth was led by l'oreal's active cosmetics division. guy: iron ore missed projections in western australia. the world's second-largest minor has continued to expand despite a strong drop in prices. quick look at the markets. francine: there is more worry surrounding greece. a little bit of nervousness surrounding the ecb. we talked about the emergency liquidity assistance. seems the markets are brushing it off. guy: yesterday, they moved higher in the u.s. we price some of that. the dax up by 1.24%. the ftse, a little bit of the later. after a couple of down days, we had some strong up days. francine: london calling for mary j. blinge. she talks to bloomberg about her new album produced in the u.k. capital. ♪ francine: welcome back to "the pulse" live on bloomberg tv and radio and streaming on bloomberg.com. the tribeca film festival is in full swing in new york and that is where stephanie ruhle sat down with mary j. blige. blige chronicled the making of her most recent album, "the london sessions." just after -- asked after the making of that album. mary: we created a song called "follow." that was the first we're going to do for the ep. so, when i brought this on back over here to capitol records, i played "follow" and the chairman went crazy. let's have you go back to london to finish the album but not to finish it with disclosure only. write with naughty boy emily sandy, and make it a bigger idea. francine: she's so cool. i had to say that. guy: "the first word is up." for our viewers, is the second hour of the "the pulse." francine: the former ecb president weighing in on the greek crisis. not sounding optimistic. guy: join us on twitter. how many of these chinese megacities do you know about? megacities have more than 10 million people living in them. ♪ francine: coding support for greece. the ecb setting measures to limit assistance to banks. guy: credit suisse, we talked to the outgoing ceo. francine: gazprom european commissioners think europe is paying too much for gas. guy: good morning to our viewers in europe, good evening those in asia and a very warm welcome to those just waking up in the u.s. i'm guy johnson. francine: i'm francine lacqua. breaking news the zew in germany coming in below expectations at 53.3 four april investor expectations. expecting a figure of 55.3 2 points below. guy: i wonder if that is the greece effect or what is happening in russia. the euro has something to level with. let's say with the european macro theme. mario draghi might be looking to curb support for greece. the ecb study measures to rein in assistance to greek banks if the government fails to convince creditors they can turn there economy around and put reforms in place to satisfy the institutions. joining us is david powell of bloomberg intelligence. what do we know about these plans? how far advanced they are, what they are thinking about? david: i would not be too worried. we've seen a number of times in the past when hawks have a leaked hawkish views, probably with the hope of influencing market expectations. often those have not come to pass. in the past, the ecb, when they have had measures to placate the hawks, getting rid of the waiver for greek government debt they tend to give something to greece in return. in that case it was increasing the limit of ela> francine: the move has shifted. we were expecting technical talks in brussels over the weekend. the two positions are stuck. is there growing unease? even if we do not look at the ela it is more accepted we might looking at a default. david: draghi knows that the europeans are famous for coming up with compromise at the last minute at midnight. this weekend on friday the 24 is not the last chance, even before the imf payment. there's another meeting on may 11. the major date is july 20. that is when the bond that the ecb holds matures. if they do not give them three point 5 million euros they will be in default of the central bank will have to cut off ela. the rest of the deadlines are pretty soft between here and there. guy: to explain to those who do not understand the minutia, which is most of us. why the ecb would look to increase these haircuts, the amount of money in a repo operation on the ela. david: the assets provided as collateral like when you get a mortgage on the house, the house is collateral. most banks will not give you a mortgage for 100% of the value of the house, only 80% because they have to sell it. in case the loan goes bad and the ecb has to sell the asset they want to recover enough money to recover the loan granted. francine: going back to the deadline of the end of july. you have a great piece of research. we were talking about may 17 and these are a lot of payments to the imf. you picked the end of july because this is the big $7 7 billion payment, yarder this is the only time the ecb could cut the ela. david: the other key date is the 12th of may. you are not in default with the imf. they collect in arrears. there is a list of things, they get you a notice, then a month later they tell the other people you have not paid. 3 months can go by before they release a public statement that greece has not paid. being in arrears is different from a government default that day. the switch is turned off. guy: which was the last country to be in arrears to the imf? david: there's about three of them that are still in arrears. many of them have been there for many years, some since the 1980's. francine: no economies that greece would like to be associated with. guy: it is not a place you want to be. david: not a list of economic superstars. francine: thank you. guy: in singapore, bloomberg sat down with former ecb president jean-claude trichet. he weighted in. mr. trichet: where we stand now is that we need very urgently a program the main lines of a program that would inspire confidence. if we do not have that, we have nothing. that is to be delivered. >> how can there be optimism when greece remains defiant. nothing will likely come out of that meeting in riga. mr. trichet: nobody is optimistic, frankly speaking, on greece. we have to be realistic and it depends on the maturing of the position of the greek government understanding that in any case, if it wants to deliver growth and jobs, which is the main goal of that government, it has to produce recovery program that inspires confidence to the international community. to china india, latin america the imf board, to the european friends that have helped greece. that is absolutely urgent. it is difficult because promises were made which works self-contradictory. for instance, to stay in the euro and at the same time lose competitiveness by embarking on a number of measures. >> you said that eight greek -- a greek exit would be a shock to your. is that -- a greek exit would be a shock to europe? is that still the case? some people say leave. mr. trichet: that is not the case, i did not hear any finance minister say that greece should leave. they all hope for greece to stay in the interest of the greek people, those who would lose a lot in case there is an exit -- the greek people first. also the. rest of europe, that is obvious. >> what now? you take a look at greece you already see public funds. no 2015 budget yet. what now? mr. trichet: if there was a program that would inspire confidence, all those dramatic problems would look secondary. they look dramatic because there is no confidence there is no program. the key for everything is to have a credible program that would be considered credible by the friendly international community. guy: that was jean-claude trichet. francine: former ecb president. here's a look at what else is on our radar. guy: the first chinese company to default on this year posco enzi debt -- this year's currency debt. the company's founder indicated today that he has no plans to alternate agreement with a development which would save him from liquidation. francine: israeli drugmaker teva said to be preparing an offer for mylan. mylan has a market value of $33 billion. teva could make a that as soon as today. guy: sky tv said 9 month revenues rose the most in 11 years. sky benefited from record growth in germany and austria. francine: brady dougan's last set of resultss. he ad to zurich to hear from the credit suisse ceo. guy: a possible antitrust suit with gazprom. francine: teva's possible bid for mylan. ♪ francine: welcome to "the pulse," live from london. guy: first quarter numbers beat estimates at credit suisse. the stock is off 3% from the open. to help us understand what is going on, let us go to zero equipped manus cranny -- let us go to the zurich with manus cranny. manus: the word capital, the problem is going to be capitalized brady dougan goes out the door. 10%, that is a catastrophe when you think that ubs has a capital buffer of 13%. regulators want more capital and the issue will be whether the new ceo can raise capital. the surge in activity did well but when it comes to looking into the numbers, morgan stanley storming. credit suisse nowhere near those levels. my question to brady dougan is it getting hard to win customers and keep them? mr. dougan: in the businesses like structured products, the credit business, which was more difficult in the quarter. those are businesses that are power alleys and we do extremely well. same thing in equities, we have a strong franchise. are performing well for clients and shareholders. in the business as we have targeted we are doing well. manus: no fireworks. the desert will be over to the new ceo to deliver that. francine: where does brady dougan see the biggest risks? manus: the biggest story is greece. and the greeks reaching out to ministries to bring cash in. he says it will be the fed to trump the risk skew. mr. dougan: greece is preoccupying people now. in the longer-term, the issue is going to be interest rates, when interest rates start to rise. we've been in a long period of low interest rates. a higher rate environment will take some adjustment. in the longer run that is the bigger issue. manus: do you share jamie dimon's concern about the volatility in the on markets? the imf warned last week of a super taper tantrum. is that something you consider? mr. dougan: a lot of changes we have taken to make the regulated segment safer have brought on changes to market structure. we have already seen some of the impacts and so i think some of those concerns are legitimate. manus: the stock has already had a significant re-we ighting. brady dougan said he would get more aggressive in reducing risk-weighted assets. a new ceo is coming on board. everybody in zurich is interesting to know what will tidjane thiam's b -- capital, reducing risk-weighted assets, focusing on wealth management. up to you to find out. guy: he has a man who likes to take action quickly. that we do know. francine: we know from past experience that if he's going to do something bigger, it has to be six months. he's fairly tightlipped. guy: waiting for his predecessor to leave the building. thank you very much indeed manus cranny talking to brady dougan. let's look at the legacy of what happens next. managing director from stifel nicolaus joins us. d think you would be happy walking out the door with those as your last set of numbers? >> there's nothing particularly problematic about the numbers. as has been pointed out, the capital is a bit weaker. maybe some temporary elements to that. they frontloaded share for the stock to the first quarter compared to other years. some of that is supposed to reverse. it still leaves the capital position on the weak side for credit suisse, which has been one of the issues for some time. on the revenue side, as mr. dougan said it seems to be overall a solid quarter for credit suisse. francine: what is his legacy going to be? he steps down in a couple months. these are his last quarterly results. is he going to be considered an uneventful ceo? will it be remembered as a safe pair of hands but nothing very exciting? otto: in the fullness of it, there were a number of major events and issues to deal with. to his credit, i would say one of those big events was the financial crisis a few years ago. during which credit suisse actually did comparatively very well. maybe partially by luck, partially for historical reasons. there were left exposed to problem areas at the time but in retrospect, credit suisse came through that very well. and i think that longer, the longer period should be part of his legacy. maybe a little bit of bad luck. since then, the status has maybe been crumbling a bit. and especially, 2014 credit suisse started to underperform a bit. there were still some legacy issues like conduct related etc. some sort of lawsuits, settlements, tax evasion and all these kinds of things in the u.s. which i think will also be part of the legacy. unfortunately it is a bit of a mixed picture. an exit maybe not the strongest point. guy: did success during the financial crisis mean it was harder to make changes after? ubs had to make changes. otto: that is a very good comment. ubs, as well as a number of others did have to make sharp cuts. credit suisse was less forced to do that. maybe in retrospect, they missed the timing of the changes in the marketplace. and maybe in retrospect was hanging onto strongly into long to the whole older style model. stronger commitments to fixed income, a bit like deutsche bank, which is also struggling in that respect. guy: final question, if you were working for credit suisse now, how will you be feeling? otto: in terms of the management change? guy: how big do you think the changes are going to be? otto: if i was an wealth management i would be excited for growth, investment bank is shrinking. francine: we are getting some breaking news about the three-month euro toward dropping for the first time below zero. what does it mean for banking looking at greece and the general environment? otto: the general environment, a very low yield environment. the yield effectively zero. a very flat yield curve makes life harder for banks. the message from the bond market growth remains very elusive for a long time. francine: thank you so much. otto dichtl managing director at stifel nicolaus europe. guy: a debt default for a chinese developer. kaisa a closer look at the struggles after the break. ♪ francine: welcome back to "the pulse." live on bloomberg tv and streaming on bloomberg.com. guy: let's go to asia. kaisa has become china's first real estate company to default on u.s. currency debt. the developer embroiled in president xi jinping's graft crackdown. let's find out what is going on. joining us from singapore. is this default a surprise for the market? that is the first question to ask. >> not really. it was a long way coming. the chairman was removed in december, he said he resigned. all the conditions were very murky. the company almost missed a payment, they defaulted on a loan with hsbc. hsbc waved the default. there were a lot of signs this was going happen. the market seems to have taken it in stride. the stock is suspended but bonds are up two points. the overall market seems to have been hit a little bit. the shanghai property sub index was down about 73 points today. the shanghai composite index was up. so that gives you a sense that investors were not completely comfortable with the fact that the company finally defaulted. yet it is not as bad as people thought it was going to be. francine: thank you so much for joining us. that is a development we will be watching closely. christopher in singapore. guy: join us in today's twitter question. how many of these chinese megacities do you know? follow us on twitter. i am @guyjohnsontv. francine is @flacqua. these cities have 10 million people are more. there are probably a few you have never heard of. london is around 8 million. francine: paris around 2 million. these are megacities you have never heard about. tweet us the ones that you know and you do not know. we are @flacqua in @guyjohnsontv. back in a couple minutes. guy: my fear is that i was going to have to say some of those names. there are a few that look quite hard to pronounce. back in a couple minutes. ♪ francine: welcome back to "the pulse." live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm francine lacqua. guy: i'm guy johnson. francine: gazprom will get an antitrust complaint from the eu in a two-year probe into gas pricing. the probe was delayed and the tensions in ukraine. examining whether the company's contract unfairly linked oil and gas prices and prevented customers from selling gas. guy: the broadcaster sky reported a surge in new subscribers. adding the most u.k. customers in 11 years. also a 20% jump in your on your operating profits in -- year on yea operating profits. francine: european leaders will hold a summit to address the crisis in the mediterranean after a boat capsized off the coast. >> the situation is dramatic. it cannot continue like this. we cannot accept that hundreds of people die when trying to cross the sea to europe. this is why i have decided to call an extraordinary european council this thursday. this is also why i traveled.to the region three weeks ago . the objective is to discuss between the member states and eu institutions, what they can and must do to alleviate the situation. guy: donald tusk. let's move from that story to find out what is happening in the markets. jonathan ferro? jonathan: the direction of travel not as clear as yesterday. yesterday, china lit a fuse under the market with the rate that. today, a lot of divergence. gains on the dax but losses in italy. stoxx 600 it is the tech stocks leading the gains, up by 2.5% with sap, ibm overnight all beating estimates. a big week for tech earnings. that is the equity markets. once again, it is risk at the front and center of everyone's minds. no more than here on the greek equity market. asc down. the bank index increased down by 7%. areas bank off by 13.8%. you expect a lot of volatility but it goes to show that things are getting uglier for greece. the three-year note going through 29% for the first time since 2012. 10 year bond yield, 13.4. alexis tsipras seizing public sector funds to keep the country afloat. the ecb studying ways of reining back emergency assistance. and growing opposition to actually doing something about ela for greek banks. weaker euro in the fx market off by .5%. euro to 1.0692. grexit risk at the forefront, a weaker euro. we are approaching an endgame. feels like groundhog day. the screws are starting to turn. guy: slowly but surely. thank you very much indeed. francine: getting some breaking news out of china. this comes on the heels of kaisa , we were bringing you that a while ago. the first china state for -- for them to default on shore. -- the first china state firm to default on shore. it will continue to raise payment funds by various liens, including asset disposal. it is interesting to see whether the government actually supports these defaults to give an message to the wider market. we will find out more and bring you the latest in the next couple minutes. guy: particular for a state run firm. more signs of unease over greece . the ecb selling measures to wind down emergency liquidity assistance it has been providing to keep greek banks afloat. providing more haircuts, i.e. the repo operation. the ela could be reined in. here to take a look at greece's plight is daniel gross -- we are in the wrong place -- oh no daniel has been found. thanks for taking the time to join us from brussels. sorry, i thought you might be in the studio. look, where are we and how significant would it be if the ela haircuts increase? daniel: ela is the center for the financing of the great banks and the entire greek financial system. if ela were to cut, that is the endgame. greek banking system goes and probably we have a default. that puts the european central bank at the center of the story. francine: this we have known for a while. as soon as they cut ela funding it is game over for greek banks. what do you make of the talk of haircuts? does it give us a sense that the ecb and the markets in general is a little bit more uneasy then it may be we do not avoid a default. daniel: two things going on. the ecb would like to avoid being held responsible for a certain cut off. what they are trying to do is put this very gradually. they want the greek government to blink first, put in capital controls and other stuff before the ecb has said you do not get any money. we have already seen yesterday that the greek government has taken the first stepscontrols and other stuff which already shows that one thing is to stand up to the creditors and say we will not yield to your demands. they have defined the cash domestically and they encounter a lot of resistance. their popularity is going to go down as well. ultimately the tightening of controls might force the greek government which already shows. if they make good on promises not to yield, in the end, a deal. guy: another way of looking at it, they decide to go back to the people and ask whether they should continue to fight. how likely a scenario do you see that as being? daniel: i think that would come only in a couple months. first we have to see a further draining of liquidity. we have to see how the popularity of tsipras evolves. for the time being he is still riding high. if that comes down, he might think twice about a referendum. the referendum would not be under the euro, it would be on this government. he needs to ask the people do you support me, he might get a good vote. if he waits, that option becomes much less palatable for him. francine: what is er -- i do not want to say favorite outcome -- the most likely outcome. do you think they will have enough money to go until july when they have the big ecb payment? until then, they will make it go by. dana: i think they really only in the sense that they will prevent something to the creditors -- daniel: i think they will yield in the sense that they will present something to the creditors that looks acceptable. it is not fresh money but money to avoid the appearance of default. the european partners have as much interest in greece maintaining appearances. my bet would still be that in the end some accommodation would be found. guy: do you think we get -- people are talking about a default in the meantime. that we need some sort of event to change minds in a significant way. we have no movement at the moment on either side. do we need an event to create that? the pressure does not seem to be creating outcomes the institutions would like and it is not getting the traction that the greeks would like. what is it that is going to change the view of either side? daniel: i think already what happened last week the government having to collect all the funding from various government agencies, will mean it will become less popular. then, if the banking crisis spreads and people see that they cannot really dispose of their bank accounts as they want to then the popularity of the government might nosedive. and i think an event of this type is most likely to change the minds in the ruling coalition rather than the other side. francine: daniel gros director of the center for policy studies in brussels. guy: talking of brussels, bloomberg spoke to the eu competition commissioner about gazprom. the commission is expected to charge the gas giant tomorrow for breaking antitrust regulation. she told bloomberg the eu is looking at pricing. >> we are looking at if customers are getting the best prices or if the company is using strength to get different prices for different customers. and of course, we would like to look into that. it means a lot to a country if it pays more for its gas than it ought to. stephanie: how difficult is it to gather this information from a russian company versus another company. margrethe vestager: something i find promising is that this is a very commercial company. it does business as other businesses, as it should. it is in the market, it is a competitive market. but still, it is a market where gazprom is dominant because it is a very large company. francine: for more on gazprom let's bring in ryan chilcote. it gives a sense of geopolitics behind the decision due tomorrow. the eu will argue they are treating gazprom like any european company. russia will argue this is a political sanction. ryan: you've got to think of this spat in the larger context of the much larger argument that is happening between western europe, the european union, and russia. when it comes to gas the eu is on the consuming side. they get about a third of their gas from russia. the russians have done things in terms of fighting back like seeking. to diversify gas supplies to places like asia. they are going to look at these antitrust complaints tomorrow as a politically motivated decision with curious timing because the investigation has been going on for a couple years. the charges have been ready for at least a year and they will say why now. just as it looks like maybe we are getting closer to a softening of sanctions against russia. the eu has to vote on extending sanctions. it has to unanimously approved extending sanctions at the end of june or july at the latest. you have got come in general, a sort of easing of tensions around ukraine. they see this as an effort, or will see this as an effort to antagonize them. it really comes down to the detail of the complaint itself. if the european union wants, it can fine gazprom to the tune of 10%k of their export revenue globally. the russians would say this is another chapter in the war against russia. guy: economic war antagonize. ryan: they are off to athens. as much as people talk about use of gas as a political weapon, it can be a cartrot. you do not hear greeks complaining about gazprom. the greeks are seeking a discount. like 1% overall. lyrically they are close. francine: this is in russia's interest because they are less than other countries. guy: it will annoy the germans. ryan: you would be surprised. the germans get one of the biggest discounts of all of the countries. but absolutely, geopolitically it is helpful to have greece on board. give them cheap gas, maybe they push hard on keeping the sanctions -- lifting the sanctions, rather. then there is the prospect that someday they are calling the turkish stream, which would replace south stream, would become something that involves greece. francine: ryan chilcote with the latest on gazprom. guy: we look ahead to the next hour on bloomberg. bloomberg politics up next. labour miliband the favorite to become the next prime minister. stay tuned. ♪ francine: blue state digital is a company that helped mastermind the digital strategy for barack obama's 2008 and 2012 elections and is now behind the uk's labour party's digital presence. guy: we spoke with the head of emea europe, middle east and africa about political funding. >> if you take the american example the obama campaign's raised about $600 million from small crowd-funded type donations. out of a total of $1 billion. it became more important than any of the traditional sources. we are on the verge of that happening here. we may or may not get there in the final analysis but there is an incredible shift in how we have been doing politics and funding politics. guy: as the u.k. election campaign heads towards the final fortnight things are looking up for ed miliband, as far as the bookies are concerned the most likely candidate to become the next prime minister. here with more is anna edwards. so, no event is ahead. anna: paddy power has decided ed miliband is the most likely to be the leader. the first time since october they put him ahead. the other bookies have already done that. last week two put miliband as the favorite. the odds are suggesting a labour minority government is viewed as the most likely outcome. the bookies had a pretty good independent referendum. at that point they called a couple weeks ahead of the referendum it was going to be a no vote. this is interesting. francine: they are expecting kate middleton to give birth on monday and call a girl alice. guy: if you agree or disagree. francine: it is not very royal, alice. what are the commentators saying? anna: the polls are not helping unbelievably tight is the way that uke -- you got described -- yougov described them. our colleague will be on the politics show talking about how the forecasters are starting to shift a little in favor of ed miliband becoming prime minister. if the polls are stuck, given the fact that the snp will be in labour's camp, many commentators find it easy to come to the conclusion that ed miliband will see the confidence of the house and that is but you need to become prime minister. guy: conservatives have consistently talked about a late surge that would come to them. it is beginning to get awfully late in the day for the surge. if that does not happen, we are in a situation where they are not connect. anna: the campaign manager for the conservatives has always talked about how the economic reality or message was going to get through. that is why they talked for so long about nothing other than the economy. we've got some interesting quotes. saying the historical precedent states that in the run-up to the election you get a move in favor of the incumbent. the conservatives hoping that will come through. in the meantime, john major will be speaking. the last tory leader to win an outright majority for the conservative party. he will be anti- snp. he has had some success so we will see what he has to say. guy: if he could talk about cricket that would help. francine: and the royal baby. guy: you are not going to let this go. alice? francine: i am just saying. they have some pretty odd odds. anna: i like your ability to turn a conversation about cricket into the royal baby. francine: we can tweet. guy: alice, cricket and the current account deficit. francine:@guyjohnsontv and @flacqua. francine: the world's biggest generic drugmaker could be getting bigger. watching teva. ♪ francine:. welcome back to "the pulse." live on bloomberg tv and streaming on bloomberg.com. guy: we got to tel aviv and are joined by elliott gotkine. waiting to see whether the israeli drug company tells that pulls out this offer for my land -- four mylan. elliott: investors seem to think something is afoot. the report saying the deal was going to be tabled as early as today. teva shares in israel up by 3%. mylan shares are traded only in the u.s.. that is traded as well. in the premarket, shares of mylan up 132%. both moved towards record levels in recent days when speculation mounted that such a deal could take place in the farm industry. they are trying to find ways to cut costs and increase prices. 10 that trying to find a way to offset drop off in revenue from its best-selling multiple sclerosis treatment which will face generic competition as early as this year. people are suggesting there is some justification to such a deal. before teva even made an offer to mylan, mylan rejected the deal last week. interesting to see how this plays out and if there is any word from teva or mylan when trading gets underway in the u.s. later today. francine: because they seem to have rejected it before it was tabled, does this mean we are expecting an increased offer? elliott: we didn't even have an offer. talking about, perhaps this is brinkmanship and mylan is playing. hardball but there is not even a to play with. we are at an early stage. the deal is being prepared and have a is using barclays as a main advisor. this could be tabled as early as today but we do not know the evaluation. mylan was valued about 33 billion dollars at close of trading last week. a pretty big marshall to swallow if teva tables this bid. things seem to be aligning to suggest this is going to happen sooner rather than later. how big it will be we do not know. francine: elliott gotkine in tel aviv. guy: that is it for "the pulse," keep it here on bloomberg. for u.s. viewers, "surveillance" is live from new york. for those on the side of the atlantic bloomberg's politics show. we ask whether policies that spur growth outside of london matter to business. looking at the absence of a late surge favoring the conservative party. that is what the bookies are looking at. fran is more interested in the fact that the royal baby could be called alice. francine: a reminder, tweet us. see you tomorrow. ♪ >> this is bloomberg "surveillance." guy: it comes down to liquidity and insolvency and greece talks haircuts. tsipras tries to get to friday's meeting. it has been the great wrong call. they are wrong again. interest rates refuse to rise. brendan, the great pulling thread shortage. good morning, everyone. this is bloomberg "surveillance" live in new york. i am tom king. joining me is olivia sterns and brendan keeley. olivia: mursi was sentenced to 20 years in prison. he was egypt's first elected civilian leader. mursi is part of the muslim brotherhood which egypt now calls a terrorist organization. the captain of that ship that sank in the mediterranean with 900 onboard has been charged with reckless mul