waking up in the united states. this is "the pulse." we are here in london and we have got plenty coming up for you. mini-robots that assemble your table or transform themselves into chairs that you can sit on. meet the room-bots. we begin with our top story. sterling under pressure this morning after an opinion poll showing that scottish independence has gained a lead for the first time this year. next week, scotland votes on whether to break up the 307-year-old union. for more, anna edwards joins me now. this poll is interesting. there are a number of statistical a lot malaise -- anomalies that we need to think about. >> it is significant. -- he described the results of the poll over the weekend as remarkable. regardless of whether you look at the detail about whether you should or shouldn't include the undecided, if you exclude them, if you look at just who has they willor said vote yes, a 22 point lead for the no campaign has been lost over just one month. that has been replaced by a two-point deficit. that is a remarkable swing. especially as you consider that in two thirds of previous referenda, you have seen a swing towards the no campaign. of this polling is quite great. that said, another poll over the weekend typically have big yes vote polling much more strongly and they haven't shown any significant move since june. it could be a case of catching up a little bit to what the other polling companies have been saying. there is a lot of noise in all this. we need to find out more. >> too close to call is the line that we got. ringing ine is now that years of politicians in westminster. >> it is not what they expected. both of the camps in action. the leader of the yes campaign saying, they are the underdogs. he doesn't want his supporters to give up the cause. he wants them to. the is likely to spend all of this week showering more details of furthered the evolution plans on scotland. we heard george osborne talking yesterday that there will be a promise before the vote. these are the powers that scotland will get every get to gocameron doesn't want down in history as a prime minister who broke a 307 year union. at the same time, the leader of the labour party, that is the has the ability to try and turn opinion in scotland. voterss labour party that are supporting the swing. >> it was only the conservative voters who were not turning towards the yes campaign. in every other part of the polling, you could see a trend towards the yes campaign. all of these groups moving towards the yes campaign. alsoally, the undecided increasingly likely to turn toward the yes campaign. >> the market is waking up as well. >> i can't count the number of pieces of research i read over the weekend that said the markets weren't really other to this story. they are now. that seems to be how things have turned out. the pound down 1.6% last week. that is against the dollar. since the middle of july, more than 5% has been lost. there are other factors in their. in there many out there foreign exchange markets talking about what kind of losses we are going to see on sterling. you look at the stock market as well. let's bear in mind that the financial services industry is a big employer in scotland. wider, 34% the net work in the broader business services arena. there is a great deal of interest from a financial markets perspective on what is happening in these financial stocks. rbs, lloyds and others, standard life for example. are planningt they to move south of the border. we are having all of that information coming out. >> thank you very much indeed. anna edwards on what is happening in scotland. let's go from one country thinking of breaking away to another which is doing the same thing in a much more aggressive way. ukraine. a cease-fire is being tested. both the government and the pro-russian rebels reporting truce violations and casualties. ryan chilcote joins us with the latest developments. the cease-fire is technically still holding. >> it is. saysimple thing would be to that this truth is going to fail but that hasn't happened yet. indications we have from the last 24 hours are that it is looking more and more likely that it will stick. thatf those indications is alleged violations of the truce over the last 24 hours have fallen since saturday, which had everybody on edge. it looked like the fighting was going to continue. those alleged violations are more and more isolated now despite the fact that there are reports of shelling and whatnot in all of the three fronts in the east of ukraine. the second encouraging development that i see over the last two or three hours is we have heard from the deputy prime minister of the self-proclaimed republic of donetsk. this is one of the two regions in the east where there is fighting. he says what the separatists are seeking there is autonomy within ukraine. that is reassuring because the ukrainian president appears to be prepared to give them the kind of autonomy they want. obviously if they were saying they want to be independent of ukraine altogether, that would be very problematic. the second thing he is saying is that on wednesday there will be an offer all prisoner swap between the separatists and the ukrainian government. if that goes forward, that would be the first test and confirmation of the goodwill between the ukrainian government and the pro-russian separatists and the russians themselves. >> let's talk about sanctions. whether orons as to not they are being effective. >> there is the possibility, the expectation is those sanctions from the european union will be agreed today and published tomorrow. they will subject, they will target a number of russian companies and their access to european capital markets. the wall street journal got its drafton a leaked report, document for the european union on friday night. ast document said gazprom transneft would be subject to new restrictions as vtb, theberkbank and largest banks in russia. , at the nato conference where i was on friday, the feeling is that the sanctions have been effective. that is what a lot of the leaders were saying. that is why we are at the point where we are, where we have this truce. the feeling was that the sanctions should go forward. they were planned as much as 11 or 12 days ago and should have been introduced on friday. the horsetrading still continued their even though we are talking about an eu deal in south wales. the idea is that if this truce does stick, sanctions could be suspended or rolled back. >> ryan, thank you very much indeed. ryan chilcote covering ukraine. its appliances business to electrolux for $3.3 billion in cash. betcompany is making a big on the connected home and appliances. hans nichols has the story. to unloadn looking this business for quite some time. walk me through the implications? >> first off, electrolux will have a beachhead in north america. 90% of ge appliances revenues come from north america. that will allow electrolux to scale. to put more money into r&d and put a big investment into how they connect all your home, your appliances. on friday, we spoke with the chief technology officer of the electrolux before the deal was announced. listen to how he envisioned your home being connected. >> the internet of things also comes into the kitchen. it will help you to get the recipe right, to process through it as a professional chef, and then to maybe go out of the kitchen into the living room to socialize with your friends, and watch through a camera what is happening in your oven, and have that peace of mind and control that you want to have while you are cooking. >> ge clearly doesn't want to be in that cooking business. they want to be streamlined as an industrial company. here is what jeffrey immelt had to say about the deal -- they closed in on the alstom assets earlier this summer. the ipo-ed part of their american financing company. electrolux gets a foothold in north america and uni can be better hosts and maybe better cooks. >> the chances of me being a better cook, very slim. if anything can help achieve that, i will be very happy. looking forward to this. if it could just do it for me, that would be better. thanks very much indeed, hans nichols. let's talk about another deal which will have an application for mr. jeffrey immelt. ryanair forced to place $11 billion order for boeing jets. that is according to people familiar with the matter. kari lundgren is here with the details. it has been a little time coming. do we know what michael is buying? >> he is looking at this new macs. boeing has done a few different things to make it a better plane for ryanair. they are looking at adding 11 seats. that would mean pushing the rose two inches closer together, adding an emergency row behind the wings. a few little tweaks for him. we are hearing it is in the magnitude of about 100 planes. that would swell the fleet to about 500 planes by 2019. significant expansion. ,his comes after an enormous very busy year for ryanair. november last year, they were talking about how they wanted to revamp their image. michael o'leary has been doing significantly less in terms of publicity stunts. they have been rolling out their chief commercial officer instead. they have revamped their website. they are focusing on primary airports. they are really pushing. this would bring the year around. 12 months later -- alwaysiously he has bought jets when they were super cheap, when he could see a big opportunity to leverage his position. this is a jet that is selling already pretty well. the 320-neo from airbus is doing well. any kind of opportunity here or is this a reflection of the fact that he needs to make this happen? >> he wanted the max. he said that when he made the order announcement last year. then he would make that order at the right time. it is quite close on the heels of the last order. having said that, if you look at the market overall and the capacity and competition in europe, you still have some carriers retrenching. you have easyjet becoming a significant competitor. i think michael sees this as a point you need to push. france,was running air if i was alex cruz, if i was running german wings, this would make me very nervous. >> i think it makes those executives set up. the other thing that is making them sit up is the appearance of ryanair at these primary airports, places where they never face ryanair competition. easyjet says, if you look at our network, there isn't that much overlap. that is becoming less and less the case. low-cost and european discount sector will be looking at this order and scratching their head and seeing where he is putting those planes. >> big conference next week in london on this. kari lundgren. stay tuned. we are speaking to the ryanair ceo. he is on around 4:00 p.m. london time. stay tuned for that one. also, ukraine and pro-russian rebels sign a cease-fire deal but it is already in jeopardy. we assess the risks and the rewards. that is coming up next. ♪ >> welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." let's talk about cable. the british pound versus the united states dollar. polling has raised significant concerns surrounding whether or not we see scotland making a bid for independence next week. the implications of that are beginning to be understood. the pricing in of it is continuing. you see what is happening with the pound. 1.6120. we lost a significant amount last week. it looks like that momentum is continuing. volatility has spiked quite significantly. you are seeing some financials on the ftse suffering today. those are companies with exposure in scotland. engineering companies also at risk as well. keep an eye on this trade. let's move over to another story. ukraine. the nation's capital and and pro-russian rebels have supported deaths from more fighting, testing a truce that was reached in belarus. the eu is planning sanctions against russia. michelle is a portfolio manager and joins us now. good morning to you. the situation we find ourselves, how would you describe it? what is the context we should think about when we look at the investment opportunities and what it means for the russian economy, the ukrainian economy and the western economy? >> it is clearly a very fragile peace. it can be broken at any time. at the moment, i think the market expects mild sanctions to continue. that the see it is whole situation is a lot like georgia. years beforemany the georgian economy and the whole relationship with russia became semi-normal again. >> that is a very long period of in financial market terms. when you look at what that means for the russian economy, what does it mean? you have this low intensity conflict going on. it is likely to continue rolling on. sanctions are going to stay where they are. that is going to continue to make people nervous. you never know what is going to happen next. >> markets hate uncertainty. this is an uncertain situation. we estimate this will take around 1% of russian economic growth over the next two to three years. even these mile sanctions. mostly through increased cost of capital and capital flight which continues. however, having said that, the weak ruble is helping the export-led russian economy. there is a tit-for-tat there. i think that is probably what is going to save them at the end. >> if you were a german executive running a company that has exposure into russia, how would you be planning your business over the next few years? you look to russia, you thought it was going to be a big opportunity. what advice would you give them? >> i think my advice would be, hang in there. this is a big economy. you cannot ignore it. at the end, unemployment has stayed relatively low and the russian consumer story is still there. sanctions do not escalate from here or the war escalate from here, if the war is kept as a proxy war as it is will, i think the ruble settle around here, which is fine. as long as the sanctions don't include some kind of swift boycott or export ban from russia, especially oil and gas, then you will see the ruble go up and that would be a real disaster. >> one final question. if you were running a country that has a significant russian would you runw businesses in those countries? would you expect further aggression from putin into other parts of the european sphere of influence? what looks like the next part of his game? clearhink there is a differentiation between countries which have joined nato and those which haven't. i think the ones which have joined nato should feel safer. the ones which haven't, i think the georgian path, just to mention that as an example -- you do your own bid. you do structural reform. you get your country in order. then you're a economy is growing 5%, 6% per year versus the russian economy growing close to zero or not at all. who is going to win in the long term? it is probably going to be georgia. relationshipin the , export your goods back to russia and so on. i think putin has won the battle, but baby he is not going to win the war if he doesn't include some of these reforms. thank you very much indeed, we are going to take a break. coming up, transformers that build your furniture one block at a time. we check out the high-tech robots that may soon be taking over your living room. we will look at them in just a moment. ♪ >> welcome back. let's talk about today's pulse number. $22 billion. that is how much of scotland's renewable is at risk. it may be halted on green power projects. about howquestions developers will get subsidies. breaking up the union between england and scotland would force the country to negotiate for electricity. 0 i will see you in a moment. ♪ . >> good morning, you are watching "the pulse." i am guy johnson. china's trade surplus climbed to record in august. imports fell for second month in a row. that decline was a little unexpected and may show terms economic growth target is 7.5% could be at risk. eu banks have attempted to evade rules. this comes after lenders turn to so-called allowances to get around about on bonuses, which are worth more than twice the fix pay level. former israeli president says the government's appropriation of west bank land for settlements is to matching talks with the palestinians. bloomberg spoke with him. we have to agree not to continue with old and new settlements while we are negotiating and as the palestinians not to act against us and the united nations, fall andt cannot negotiate at the same time. quid pro quo situation. >> looking pretty nice there, i have to say. let's talk about the market action. >> scotland is the big driver of markets here in london this morning, a referendum over scottish independence in the united kingdom that comes in about 10 days time. one particular poll has taken the lead -- the yes camp has mp.en the lead over the no ca, [ pricing a little bit of risk and uncertainty. into the biggest movers lower. you'll see lloyd's down by 2.95%. big u.k. lenders, under some in this morning's trading. looking at stirling, the inevitable happens, the pound went lower. that is how much one pound advise you and dollars, down 1%. down to 1.69. on the monetary policy of side, if we get a yes vote, the bank of england really goes to hike into that environment. chief economics say unlikely. two, politicaler uncertainty. there's so much, particularly for prime minister david cameron. what we're underlying is momentum of uncertainty, with the yes camp, which produces a lot of uncertainty. the pound of tripping lower at 1.6109. >> it had a hammering last week as low. thank you for the market story. breaking news for you. duke and duchess of cambridge are expecting a second child. the world will be paying attention to this one. a good news story. i have to say, i would've be tom keeneuld breaking of his running order because this is big news. >> if they don't mean -- don't alex, boy or girl, goingt know what they're to do. it will save the union. >> i am sure that is high on the list of priorities. saving the union is a big priority right now. well, it is. it is changed quite a lot. of course, that is great news for the royal family. we make jest of it -- i have to get my tie straight here. the news over the weekend with tom stirling weakening, that chiefwe need to speak to of economics. talk about scotland, about what it means for england and britain and what it means for the united states as well. we will get the second week of an autumn september going with jeffrey rosenberg of like rock on the fixed income market -- like rock on the fixed income market. tough call. >> it is wonderful news. >> it will make an interesting transition and little george's like. looking for to "surveillance." let's talk tech. alibaba could make ipo history. here with what could be the world's biggest is caroline hyde . big numbers. is a big business? big prices at $66 -- or if they get the overallotment they could exercise, they could get $24.3 billion raised for the most ever in evaluation would be to the tune of $163 billion. that is more than any pay. not as big as uggla or facebook. -- not as big as google or facebook, the biggest chinese internet player. it dominates in china. it brings together's buyers and sellers. it takes a little commission from whatever you might be buying. cakes is another key chinese ingredient. basically, this is what woos common people, the cheap prices, but those outside the mainland. the people, the cheap prices, but those outside the mainland. blazing trails in russia right now. one of the fastest-growing apps in general websites in russia. that the portuguese speaking and an english speaking as well as l. one day alone, $5 billion worth of transactions. they deliver half the packages of the hole in china. if chinese internet users keep growing, within the entire population of any country, half it index mike riley accessing the internet in china. half of india accessing the internet and china. >> thank you. a big story we're sitting on. from aalk about tech different angle. to the future. sign to's in switzerland -- scientists in switzerland have developed roombots. let's take a look at what these bots connection to. >> the future of furniture is here and it turns out to be less herman miller and more transformers. scientists in switzerland have developed these little guys. their robots shaped like to dip cubes that can move around and create furniture. preprogrammedare were operated with a remote control but scientists are developing software that allows the robots to learn where to go on their own. inside each robot is a battery in three motors that allow it to pivot. gripper that just allow them to connect to one another, climb up a wall, or grab anything that has special notches. they could be a big help to the disabled or elderly, people who cannot easily move, which is what scientists had in mind. there's potential for innovative configuration. scientists still need to smooth out how the robots move and, more importantly, figure out how users can control them. while this does look like a glimpse into the future, researchers don't expect roombots to be on the market for another 20 years. >> 20 years? that is a little into the future. up, schooling parents and teachers with the new curriculum rolling out in classrooms across the u.k. they will need all the help they can get. we will talk to the ceo about how he is throwing them a lifeline. ♪ >> welcome back to "the pulse." the majority of parents and the united kingdom don't know of his computer brooklyn rolls out this month -- computer curriculum. across the country this month. significant number of parents are not tech-savvy. helping out homework to prove a little embarrassing for parents who aren't up to speed. 02 is looking to change that. the company ceo joins us now. my five-year-old is now going to be learning about algorithms and computer coding. while i'm aware that is going to mean something for me, i'm not entirely sure, check it is going to mean for me and what i need to do doubt that. as a carrot, help me out. >> the government is a knology -- is acknowledging the opportunity is not to help them from an early age to get involved in and engage with the internet, to do it in a way they are safe and confident. the key is making sure the parents understand how they can allow their kids to engage and enjoy the benefits of being online, understanding how they can learn that way, but also do it in a safe environment. >> how are you helping me make that happen? survey just understand how parents were feeling. many are feeling nervous about this. they did not know changes were happening. now they're worried about whether they will be a little support their children. we said, look, we need to do this together. employers are introduced -- ingested and those with digital skills. we need parents to have more digital ambitions so we launched a concept with free teach-ends and our local 02 stores were parents and children can come in and learn and a safe and secure environment how they can go online, but care and child, safely, and get more out of being online. getting from'm you, it is about safety, understanding the framework in which they operate, and making sure they can do it without any trials and tribulations. what about the mechanics of what they're learning? about digital confidence. a lot of what you will do online, you'll junior on time. it is not about saying the parent has to sit down every hour of every day is either child. if you set the environment which they're online, they can discover and explore in the same ways they too in the corner of the library. as parents, we don't have to understand how to code, though the parentst giving and opportunity to know as much as they need to know so they can support tickets having more digital ambition. >> how does this compare with other countries? is the u.k. doing enough? should we be doing more? what is the global benchmark? >> the truth is, we're catching up. the u.k. has the largest proportion of its economy on land of any 220 country. the opportunity is enormous. we're saying to employers and parents, look, digital economy is booming. you know you want more digital skills in your workforce, let's actually set up with the education system and the parents to have the same ambition to have a strong digital economy. >> let's talk about more broadly of what is happening with the business environment. one of the subjects we're covering this morning and the market is obsessed with, the dawning really station at scotland could soon be going its realization, scotland could soon be going its own way. >> we have been looking at this for a long while. we need to make sure whatever and it isecides, important that scottish people make that decision themselves, we are offering a great experience to customers. we have been planning. we need to make sure there is no interruption in service if anything does change. that is a cooperation between ourselves, government, and regulators. i think we're in good shape to make sure customers look at the service there used to. >> in terms of the level of change were talking about, can you give us a sense of how much would change were this to happen? you have to look at the regulators. how deep does it go? >> right at the top, it is about regulations. all the way down to we have retail stores in one jurisdiction which might now have separate legal frameworks, and if local taxes will have to split payrolls, so local payroll for scotland and the taxes and scotland are different. it is a lot of plumbing needs to be done. the worried there, it increased costs, whereas scottish consumers by be disadvantaged. >> it seems the world has been working up to this last 10 days. don't havestage, we detailed plans. we look at the areas of our business that would be impacted. there will be a transitional period of scotland votes for independence. it is just to be ready if that situation should arrive. >> another subject, m&a, your industry has been to a lot of recently. how far through the process of consolidation in europe do you think we are right now? is it appropriate in certain markets to go from four operators to three operators? >> you look at the model around the world. there's a lot more fragmentation and operators in europe for the size of the population and landmass than in asia or the u.s. as a result, we don't really have an european champions in the telecom space anymore. the previous generations of technology invented in europe and--- europe-led. i think europe is to sit finished for the fragmentation. disenfranchised by the fragmentation. law andion telecommunications regulation. having a single market for telecommunications services and more flexibility than the competition law with me customers would get the benefit of more investment in their for greater innovation in europe, which will ensure we have a highly competitive market. houck of a job as bella crew stud? >> there been a number of privacy whether it be changes. a lot of the conversation has started that we haven't actually answer many questions. i think to go back to the original conversation, and digital confidence is about people understanding what the rules are for privacy right across europe, create some european champions they can compete effectively with asia and u.s. champions online. >> thank you very much for your time. we will see with the new curriculum means for me. take a break. coming up, we will continue the conversation. the pound under pressure. more details when we come back. ♪ >> good morning. welcome back. take a look at the currency markets. data that polling we've seen gives the possibility or enhanced possibility of scotland going its own way when it votes next week. in the announcement of a royal baby. george is going to have a sibling. is that enough to hold the anyway,of sterling? let's talk about that and put it in context. talking about what we can watch for the rest of the day. also ukraine. let's talk about scotland. >> twitter is a light with sarcastic comments about whether this baby can save the union. >>what shall we call it? menu people are making that connection. the duchessam and of cambridge expecting a second baby. we will see what that does to the debate over independence. in terms of the vote, leaving the baby to one side, for the international audience, we're talking about a percent of the u.k. population, 10% of the 30% of there than landmass of u.k.. the front pages of u.k. are covered with this. expect plenty of the onse from the no camp scotland between now and the 18th. will it be enough? the yes camp says it is a bribe. it will be interesting to see the 02 talking about the businesses and all over the country, businesses saying, hang on a second, we have no details about how this will work but we still need to think about how the plumbing will be impacted. >> there will be a large transition period, what their -- won't there? interesting. let's talk about what we need to think about when it comes to ukraine. we have a truce will stop it is kind of holding. is that enough to take sanctions off the table at this stage? are set tosanctions go forward. they were set to go forward on friday and they did not happen. but that is the expectation, that they will agree finally today and it would be published tomorrow. whatready think we know they are. "the wall street journal" got its hands on a leaked document with a list of new russian companies that would face restrictions on their access to european capital markets. that raises the whole issue if we will have counter sanctions. the russian prime minister repeating the threats from august 5 at if there were more sections against russia, we might just start banning western european or eu airlines access to rushton -- russian airspace. >> that got a very big reaction. >> i was looking at my notes. the big ones were down on the day. one of the biggest losers, 1/5 of its profit comes from the royalties it gets from western airlines paying. saying, theyysts would not do that, they would not cut off their nose to spite their face. if a remember, people said the same thing about the food import ban in russia when ahead with that as well. >> ok. busy 24 hours, i suspect. a lot of baby talk, though. >> we will leave that for you. >> the baby will just have to make a longer journey. >> the papers tomorrow will be alarmingly about this. that is it for "the polls." -- "the pulse." have a great afternoon. ♪ distilling plant just. scotland aside september 18. we go to london on the future of the united kingdom. alibaba begins its roadshow in new york. alert, apple trots out new and improved product. new apple stuff. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." we're live from new york. it is monday, september 8, i am tom keene with scarlet fu and adam johnson. very busy morning brief this morning. we are back in the group. $100 duede falls below to slowing growth in china and japan. in japan, gdp negative. lower, that sales tax institute at trying to lower their debt. china, south korea, and taiwan with the mid autumn festival. >>

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