Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20140110 : comparemela.c

BLOOMBERG The Pulse January 10, 2014

This is what is coming up. Ensys raises inv sales forecast. First, our big story of the day is jobs in the United States. Economists expect payrolls had it to show the u. S. Strongest year in employment in eight years. Jonathan ferro joins us with more on the numbers. We are expecting 197,000. That would be 2. 20 7 million, ion, the 2. 27 mill best year since 2005. A friend got in touch with me and said that is only 100,000 jobs better than 2012. The fed has pumped 1 trillion into the u. S. Economy and bought an extra 100,000 jobs. Now 4 Balance Sheet is trillion and we still have not recovered all of that 8. 8 million jobs lost from the u. S. Economy. The appetite for jobs in the u. S. Is remarkable right now. Southwest airlines put out 750 openings. 10,000 applicants for those 750 jobs in just two hours and five minutes. Big numbers we are seeing out of the u. S. A lot of these jobs are part time. A lot of people are dropping out of the workforce. That is why the Unemployment Rate is coming down so fast. People drop out of the workforce and they are not counted anymore. He had seen so much bad weather. We have been covering on the pulse for weeks almost, will that have an impact . You look at the jobs number today and one of the reasons for that will be the weather. Not just this month, but december as well. It is a very typical approach. It is not highbrow economics. And it is cold, you do not go aside go outside as much, travel as much, billed as much. Jobs growth could be hit by this. Strong growths and a lot of of people think the trend is still intact. That. Nk you so much for of course, that is the big story of the day. That will that is what will decide what investors will do not only in todays trading session, but the next couple of months. Indias secondlargest software annualr is raising its sales growth forecast for the second consecutive quarter. That is thanks to the recovery and that is spurring europeans to spend more. Hans nichols joins us to discuss the results and how European Tech shales i shares are moving as a result. This is on the strength from european companies. Europeanstrength on companies and stable growth in the states. Infosys has a new executive. Hairman one of the cofounders came back. They have had their strongest quarter in two years. The other side is a resurgence, a vote of confidence in tech stocks and the tech situation in europe. It is about growth in europe and growth in the states. Look at two movers in europe. Sap up 1. 3 . Cap gemini is up around 2. 3 . Stocks in the European Tech sector are moving as a result of this. A story this as not about just infosys, but another macro trend that shows slightly positive direction. The crisis in europe is over. There is a little more spending. Almost mores to be spending taking place in europe than in the United States. The United States is still strong, but we are seeing a little bit of strength in the macro trend story. Sourcing, think about it must be a lot of British Companies that do that and maybe something easier from europe just because of the regional closeness. Fair point. Take a look at the breakdown between growth in the states and growth in europe. The percentage of sales is almost a quarter of their annual sales. It is almost down a little bit to 60 . You saw a one percent uptick in downtick in the states. There might be a slight re ifghting towards Europe Europes recovery is indeed taking hold. Thank you so much. We will have plenty more from hans nichols throughout the program. The bestperforming european stock in 2013 was ocado. Today, the company kicks off a tie up with supermarket morrison. Caroline hyde is here to tell us more about their ambitions. They need to deliver more products. Lets talk tech. This is front and center to what this company is. It is a technology company. It has developed its own software and build Distribution Centers that are stateofthe art. It has managed to use the most cuttingedge Gaming Technology to build 3d replicas to start delivering your groceries in the most fast, efficient, cutting edge manner. Haveechnology that they bill, that software, can be licensed to other businesses. Oft is why investors, some the savviest investors on the street, have got so excited about this stock. That is why they bought big stakes in this company. That is why we saw the share last year. 410 they are at a new record high this year. It is all about the potential to move away from groceries and into other areas of retailing and not just in the u. K. As we mentioned, they have morrisons under their belt now. But they are looking abroad. The chief executive saying, we have been inundated with queries from companies around and abroad who want to get in on our technology. Our analysts telling us that there is not a single retailer, a Single Company that does not can a bit of what ocado provide. It is stateoftheart and second to none. It certainly is. So far, the grocery business are their forte. How have they expanded and what are they doing . When they sign this deal with morrison, we saw the share price start to wrap up. Ramp up. They are licensing intellectual property and their technology. Today, it does live in the midlands. You can start getting your groceries delivered. Guys who developed it are X Goldman Sachs bankers. They claim the groceries are the hardest thing to nail because the volume is so enormous and the value is little. If you can do it efficiently, you can expand it and start doing pet products, baby products, all types of retail and expand outside of retail as well. That is where the potential is at the moment. Already, delivering some 35,000 food and drink products. That amounts to 70 of the u. K. , where you can be delivered to. Havesons claims that they managed, in a quarter of the time and a fraction of the price, given then the technology , the online capability that is so needed. Yesterday, morrisons warned us of a profit warning. They said, our profits are down. They are not going to be in our range because we are behind in online. Now they go live and morrisons will be hoping it turns around their fortunes and ocado will be hoping that it gets more investors looking at them. Thank you so much. Caroline hyde with the latest. Here is what else is on our radar. Swatch shares are rallying. It is having a strong start to 2014. Sales jumped more than eight percent from the previous year. The owner of omega and Harry Winston sees a clear gain in market share. French president francois he deplores the sevenpage spread of an affair he is allegedly having. Statementcording to a that he gave. He says this is an attack on his private life and he is considering legal action. He filed a legal complaint with the paris prosecutor in march. And chinese imports rose the most in months, indicating that domestic demand can support Economic Growth. That comes as the country claim the title of the worlds biggest traitor of goods. Still to come, do not call it a victory just yet. Aghi claims that the euro crisis is over. His commitment to do whatever it takes, next. And call it a case of the x files. Google secretive Research Group has met with u. S. Regulators who oversee medical devices. Or perhapsses something more powerful . That story later this hour. Welcome back to the pulse. We are live on bloomberg tv and streaming on bloomberg. Com, your tablet, your phone, and now any Windows Phone as well. Mario draghi says it is hisature and strengthened from this to keep Interest Rates low for an extended period. Our next guest says his bold statement starts to unravel after you take a closer look. Napster of research at National Australia bank. You cannot take away from the he has not spent one single euro sent and yet it is having the right effect. The markets have confidence in him. He can make these bold statements which everybody believes. Analysts believe he never has to do anything. It is a wonderful trick when markets believe you and you have credibility. You can make these statements and you do not need to back them up. He does have the tools to deal with another crisis if something were to emerge. He could perhaps do some form of quantitative easing. If we get a deflationary impact, they could do some asset purchases. Poetically, politically, this is very difficult. Would we get another . I think the ecb would be constrained. Can they really do asset purchases . The warning yesterday was to money markets. The ecbying to delink from the fed. If you start pushing up rates, we will do something. It could be a negative deposit rate. Probably a second order, maybe another lt ro. Backll push those rates down. The key message is, we are not the fed. We are not tapering rates for long. Most,t worries you the the specter of deflation or the fed raising Interest Rates, which we do not think will come this year . It is the whole tapering conundrum. That is a reduction in asset purchases and pushes up yields. Do we see european markets are to react . In the u. K. In europe, we have seen a different reaction. Credibility. Re rates are slightly lower. In the u. K. , we have seen some backup. Tenyear yields are rising lockstep with the u. S. In europe, push comes to shove, we will see another lt ro. They will go for another increase in assets through the banking system. He have the asset quality review coming up later this year. Despite the fact that Capital Markets are open to banks, they are only open as too many banks rates funds. What is the biggest concern in europe right now . Lack of demand lending. What about france . Ultimately, france this year will be interesting. We could see a huge potential for disruption. We will wait and see what the european elections give us. We could see it within europe perl assist if skeptic rds form a fairly large block in the european parliament. Outside france, which could enter recession, it is the lack of bank lending. Ishave talked that the eib going to step in. Credit growth is nonexistent. Financial fragmentation, which the ecb should be stopping they have tried a variety of things and nothing has worked so far. It is about time we got over some of this repressed nation on this issue. I want to come back to some tination on this issue. I want to come back to mario draghi. Are you concerned about sterling and the fact that, at some point, he will have to raise Interest Rates . He does not want to raise rates. Unemployment is coming down. If we think about the Second Quarter of this year, sometime we will get back to the output levels we had in 2007. That is seven years later. Around 14 of gdp. He does not see inflation as being a problem. Maybe it is slightly below where the mpc read easily have thought. Really asleep have previously has thought. The markets do not believe him when he says he is going to keep rates at hold. His problem is, markets do not believe him. The market the potential in the u. K. Is we may see a return qe in the second half of the year if we do see rates go up. They have a very difficult problem at the moment. We need more speeches and more contact, reinforcing the idea that rates are not going up. We are already seeing markets react. That is what the governor was trying to say. You are absolutely right. On the u. S. , do we put too much emphasis on the jobs data . No, because that is what the fed is targeting. Janet yellen will be accommodative. She will be, but the Housing Market has recovered. Into coreto bleed inflation with about a 20month lead. About 48 of core inflation. The fed will be expecting to see some increase in inflationary pressures. That inflation will not remain well behaved. We will start to see some increase in core inflation towards the second half of the year. Though tapering continues. With a payrolls report, we know from the adp survey that anything below that will disrupt the market. As long as we see jobs growth of over 2000 all 2000 per month, i think it will continue. Tom, the director of research at National Australia bank. Time for todays company news. Alcoa has agreed to pay for hundred Million Dollars to resolve a u. S. Criminal and civil investigation after one of its divisions admitted to paying bribes to members of the royal family and officials of state to win business. Google sent staff with ties to its secret Research Group to meet with regulators to oversee medical devices. The meeting raises the possibility of new products that may involve biosensors. Google, the company has started shuttling workers on a ferry from San Francisco to Silicon Valley as Tech Companies come under criticism from overburdening the city with buses. We will look at this airlines 22 billion gamble, next. Oflets check the pulse the markets. Jonathan ferro is that the touch screen with your asset check. Lets get another look at these equity markets, pushing higher in europe. Nice little gain on the ibex down in spain. Stronger than expected Industrial Production data out of spain. Pushing higher for the first full trading week of the year. Game in town one and it is u. S. Payrolls, expected to come in at 197,000 for the month of december. We could have the biggest yearly gain for jobs since 2005. We have had some strong data throughout the week. Deutsche bank saying we could post a jobs number at 250,000 250,000. 1. Is, one euro is 1. 36. Pretty much flat. Southwest airlines recently posted available positions and the response was overwhelming. Airlines are finally hiring again. For the first time in more than three years, Southwest Airlines is looking outside the company to hire Flight Attendants, offering Employee Perks like free air travel for themselves they are families. Flying at a record pace of 10,000 in two hours for only 750 spots. That is about 80 per minute. Southwest is not the only airline to be inundated with applications. Delta received 22,000 resumes for 300 jobs in 2012. Before merging with american, u. S. Airways got 14,000 applications were just 420 openings. Total industry hiring still felt. 8 last october, but that is the smallest decline in 13 months. With profits forecast to rise 53 this year, airlines are finally flying high again. Speaking of airlines, Norwegian Air is opening new york and florida crew bases. The carrier plans to hire as much as 300 people. Tell me more about these developments. They want to be the cheapest longhaul carrier in the world. Right. The lucky indeed. Good luck indeed. We just talked about southwest, you have ryanair in europe, air asia and asia. Those have been shorthaul operations or medium. Norwegian is trying to bring that model into longhaul. Other models have tried and failed. They are making another run at it. Said that has always he wants to offer cheap flights from new york to london but has not done so because he has not bought the planes. Michael oleary has talked about this forever. It is always the next thing he is going to do. His argument has basically been he needs very cheap planes to get the cost base down and he for not think the prices the planes they can do that route are hugely popular. Have notrers discounted them. He is waiting for weakness in the market. Norwegian air has bought 787s. Now there are all these problems with the planes. Correct. The ceo is the biggest advocate of the 787. He says that plane makes it possible. It has been criticized, or operations have been disrupted. It is kind of entertaining. Thank you so much. Rob wall, r Bloomberg Aerospace and defense reporter. Coming up thomas first of all, here is todays pulse number. 1. 7 million, that is how many u. S. Intelligence files the pentagon says Edward Snowden downloaded routes that is according to lawmakers. The chairman of the u. S. Intelligence Committee Says the pentagon was bound to notice. The pulsethe pulse welcome from bloombergs European Headquarters in london. Guy johnson is off today. It is time for todays top headlines. Could 2013 be the best year for u. S. Jobs in eight years . We are waiting for december payroll reports. The additionecast of 197,000 jobs. The projected game would bring the annual increase to more than one and a quarter million. Chinese imports rose the most in five months in december while inbound shipments rose more than 8 from a year earlier. Chinas government says it became the top trading nation in 2013. French president Francois Hollande says he deplores the seven page spread of an affair he is allegedly having with an actress. It is according to a statement he gave. He says his private life is his right and is considering legal action. For more, Bloomberg News reporter mark joins us from paris. This . Ch of a shock was there has been this rumor on the internet in the past. Internet rumor is one thing. When Francois Hollande himself comes out and says he is considering legal action, that is another. The fact it is essentially the Statement Today which has brought this to the front pages across france and i think pretty soon, elsewhere in the world. And it is not a complete shocker in the sense that there were rumors of this. , so whether this is true or not, if we just leave it to one side this is going to have an impact on his reputation. This is a president that already is not popular. This would implications for the business community. It is very difficult to say what the impact is would be on his popularity. Thingsnt countries take in different ways

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