And we go through brexit, what is next. Lets check on your data and your markets. We have seen a little bit of an easing of the rout we saw on government debt. Treasuries steadying after a long slide. The kospi, south koreas benchmark rising after the president was. Removed from office. The other thing i wanted to show you which is on the data screen oil climbing from a threemonth low but remains below 50 a barrel. We will get plenty more on the markets throughout the hour, but lets get to bloomberg first word news. Nejra there has been violence south koreas president became the first democratically elected leader to be forced out of office. Icourt upheld parliaments decision to impeach her over a rolen a corruption scandal. It opens the door for park to face jail time and triggers a president ial election within 60 days. Police in germany have arrested a 36yearold man who injured seven people with an ax at duesseldorfs main train station. It happened before 9 p. M. Last night. The suspect is from former yugoslavia and has Mental Health problems. In chianna, the governor of the rate shouldae yuan be relatively steady. Rates will best based on the domestic economy. The u. K. Has been warned that a post brexit trade deal with the European Union could take more than a decade to conclude. The Danish Foreign minister reckons an agreement could be 15 years in the making. In response to recent may said she is still working for the planned two year time tables for negotiations. That is the timetable that the European Union is working to. If i am optimistic that we can achieve a good and comprehensive free trade deal with the European Union, why am i optimistic about that . Because it is not just what is in the u. K. s interest that is about what is in the interest of the European Union. Nejra meanwhile, the u. K. Foreign secretary Boris Johnson says it would not be reasonable for the e. U. To expect for them to accept a vast bill to settle liabilities brexit after. He expects the tab to be 60 billion euros. Global news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you. The market is seeing a u. S. Federal reserve rate hike next week as a foregone conclusion but if there is one thing that could derail a move it is todays nonfarm payroll numbers. Of data before the meeting to have added 200,000 last month. But economies have underestimated employment growth in february. Will that be the case again . We and find out at 1 30 p. M. U. K. Time. As the global bond rout deepens yielda u. S. 10year suffering its first run and 40 years. For today is Julian Chillingworth. Always a pleasure. Welcome to surveillance. Give us a sense of what would need to happen for the fed night ot to hike. Julian even a pretty bad number would still see a hike. All of the evidence we have been picking up over the last few weeks has been pretty strong and the adp number on wednesday was a very strong number. Jobless claims were not bad last night. So, i think it would have to be a truly awful number and i think that you would have to see un employment rising dramatically to shake the feds result. Francine what happens that the market reprice . President ne frazzleed after the other saying that they are a lot more hawkish but is there something in the data or inflation forecast that is justifying it. They are data dependent. Julian i think that they obviously when they were deliberating their next move, they were very mindful of the noises coming out of washington. And obviously, the likelihood of onther stimulus packages infrastructure coming out this year but next. And also i think they could the economy was performing pretty well across a whole range of data. And, obviously, as you rightly say with a keen eye on inflation and seeing that rise. Francine , he hikes are you expecting this year . Let me bring you over to the world Interest Rate probability. 100 . Its 100 . And probably cut a zero. I do not think ive ever seen it like that. Do you think it is worrying because it is such a done deal , if you were the fed, would you wanted it 100 or give it a little bit of breathing room . Julian they always like to feel that they deliver no surprises. And yellens tennessee has been a no surprise regim tendency has been a no surprise regime. The debate has been, is it three rate hikes this year or not . Obviously some of the claiming ifes are inflation does get more of a grip and the u. S. And we see more wage inflation, then maybe three is not enough. Francine what does it mean for treasuries . Julinan we have seen a backup and treasuries in the last few days. I think they are reported well pricingin three now. Francine where would you be, the short and . Julian we are at the short end. Very defensivebe and our bond allocation. I think we continue to see volatility and bond markets. We will come on later today to talk about politics but obviously, you know, the political backdrop is uncertain. And that is something the bond markets do not like. Francine but they are ignoring it for the moment. What would you point to the most worry . We were speaking to jamie dimon yesterday and he was saying, donald trump is awaking the animal spirits. He does not worry about a trade war because this is just noise. Do you agree . Julian i hope he is right trade war would be disastrous for the whole developed world. I suppose it is difficult for us sitting this side of the atlantic and receiving all of tweetsgoing donald trump not to be worried. And i fully take on board what jamie dimon is saying and he is based in the states. I have worked out there and i can fully buy into the animal have seen onent i wall street in the past. But from this end of the telescope, i think we are concerned and will remain concerned. Francine are you concerned will not be enough tax cuts coming to . You can argue this is one of the reasons why markets were so high. What happens if you cannot deliver it . Julian two elements to this. The market is expecting the back a tax package. R, whether he can get that through congress we shall have to see in a form that will please markets. And the other side to it that we should not forget is the strong dollar, which i suspect we are going to enjoy to the rest of this year, is likely to see profits particularly from some of the u. S. s Largest Companies under some pressure because willusly inflation have them as well. It will not be as good as some market analysts are suggesting. Francine thank you so much for now. We will also talk about your vision for europe. We will drill down into those jobs numbers. U. K. Gary cohn at 2 45 p. M. Time. If you are a bloomberg customer, you can watch the show using tv go. See the video stream and follow all of our charts. This is the wirp function. You can steal them and put them in your library and data. And you can also message the shows producers and ask us to ask Julian Chillingworth his call on the eurodollar. Nejra ubs has reduced is 2016 bonus pool and lowered the ceos restatedr the bank income for the year to settle legal case. The bonus call dropped 17 . Has a total compensation of 13. 5 million. The ceo of Aberdeen Asset management has said he will focus on next turn affairs after his companys merger worth standard life. Martin gilbert was speaking exclusively to bloomberg and his first interview since the deal was announced. Singapore Property Developer stocks have soared as authority curves. Ket authorities will adjust a framework that limits the amount homebuyers can borrow. The time that owners must hold a property to be exempt from the duty will be shortened. And that is the Bloomberg Business flash. Francine European Union leaders sent a clear message to the u. S. From their latest summit that they will continue to promote free trade and International Pacts including nato. Creditors as greeces depart without an agreement on emergency loans, we spoke exclusively to the head of the countrys new Democracy Party which leads poles. He had a very clear message for the Prime Minister. Dont count on us to biaail out your government. The creditors are requesting that we consider to be excessive fiscal measures, which go beyond program,f the 20192020. We are not going to vote for those fiscal measures. We feel these fiscal measures greece hast that to play for their incompetence of this government. Been catchinges up with the delegates in brussels. Carolina, how exactly was he he seemed very clear. He seemed very clear that he does not want to vote on the current measures accepted by tsipras. He wants to call for snap elections. He told me that snap elections could take three weeks if they were to happen in the next few monthsin greece, and he was confident he could become the next Prime Minister if those snap elections were to happen. Tsipras has got a very short majority of only 3 in parliament, so of course, he does need the opposition to vote on the measure. He might face some issues in parliament. The opposition leader, who also bed me that if he was to elected the next Prime Minister, he will introduce more growth oriented reforms, including privatization to send a clear signal to investors globally open force is still business. He also wants to convince creditors to lower the targets for the budget surplus. He thinks that is necessary. And he is confident that in the willr term, greek bonds end up being included in the Quantitative Easing Program of the ecb. He said if he was an investor himself, he would look at the medium to longterm prospects of greece witchy things are good. Which he things are good. Francine you also spoke with theresa may. What did she tell you . I asked her reaction the Danish Foreign minister telling bloomberg that a trade deal with the u. K. Could take up to 15 years. So, i put that question to theresa may, whether she was she could actually achieve a trade deal within a twoyear period. The timetable we are working to and that is the timetable that the European Union is working to. If i am optimistic that we can achieve a good and a comprehensive free trade deal with the European Union, why am i optimistic . Because it is not just about what is in the uks interest. It is also about what is in the interests of the European Union. Is not intheresa may brussels anymore kerry today the leaders are meeting in order to prepare the rome summit in march 25. Theresa may next returns to brussel, brexit will be on the agenda. Francine they do so much. Meanwhile, in yesterdays monthly policy announcement, mario draghi says the banks governing council will continue to improve changes in inflation if they are judged to have no application for the mediumterm outlook. Headline inflation has again increased largely on account of Rising Energy and food price inflation. Inflationnderlying pressures continue to remain subdued. To julianlets get chillingworth, the chief Investment Officer of rathbon es. I do not know if you look more of what the European Central bank is doing or if you follow the e. U. Brussels summit closely to see any indication on what happens with greece, on whether we have an agreement with the imf, and especially what happens with brexit. Julian dealing with the ecb, as he talked about removing certain instruments that he then did not tell you what those estimates were, that they had taken off the table. But he has got to manage the next 18 months effectively with people calling for tapering to kick in and a possible rate increase and the debate is whether that is in 1819 or definitely into 2019. The ongoing press coverage as we are going to have around ecb meetings are going to be followed closely in the next six months, particular i suspect after the french and dutch elections where he may feel he is in a strong position to say more about the future. Francine what is the main were you have, that greece gets kicked out of the eurozone or that something happens on greece, or is it france and italy . Julian as we stand today, and one should never make these comments emphatically, it looks unlikely that greece will be kicked out of the e. U. I think we have come down such a long road that all the senior members, the french and germans, are prepared to keep the greeks in for the overall unity of the e. U. Particularly with brexit. Over the french elections, yes, there is going to be a lot of noise around the french elections. It looks as though we are ofting a coalition together people who are going to come together who will be antile pen and therefore probably around macron, but we shall have to wait and see. At the moment, that is the way the markets are seeing it, she stands little chance of getting elected. Francine how would you play it . I have the picture of the frenchgerman spread. There must be another way of playing it. Volatility or . Volatility. Can buy the other thing that people have been doing, which im not convinced is the way ford, is there has been buying in the gi lt market as well. Francine there has, a little bit. Julian whether that is the answer is a different matter. Francine exactly. That is what we are talking about next. He stays with us. Up next President Park is sent packing. South koreas leader is ousted for her role in a corruption scandal. Were looking at live pictures where there are protests, both for President Park and against park. Court unanimously confirmed parliaments impeachment removing her from office from today. That could also open the door for her to face jail time. The latest from seoul next. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Now, south koreas President Park has become the countrys first democratically elected leader to be force out of office. After a Court Unanimously upheld parliaments decision to impeach her over her role in a corruption scandal. It was a decision many south and fought hoped for. The court explained President Park committed a grave violations of the law by leaking classified documents to her friends. Court president said that part betrayed the trust of the people. Now, the move triggers a president ial election within 60 days, with opposition figures leading in the polls. The Democratic Party is the frontrunner with more than 30 support according to a gallup poll. The decision brings south korea closer to moving past one of the most turbulent periods in history. Millions of people took to the streets, to demand probes targeting some of the most powerful business and political elites, including samsungs vicechairman jay y. Lee. South koreas remain on the streets, some to celebrate the ouster of park, others to protest the court system vision the courts decision. Francine still with us as Julian Chillingworth, the chief investment up us are at rath bones. I made a timeline charting parks doubtful. The kospi index, the Korean Stock Exchange and then the various circles up until the purple one are basically when some of the offices are raided at samsung. This is the apology in purple of, actually her third apology, this is when we are seeing jay lee arrested. The markets to not really care. They bet on the other side of it. Julian you can argue a bit of a relief rally that by the impeachment we are seeing atters go forward and election is being tabled which the markets views as a positive and i suspect your correspondent said probably this is going to be a slight move towards the center left. And market views that overall as the possibility of reform coming through, which will be good news for the economy overall. Francine so, what does it mean for you . Do you look at it from a geopolitical point of you . Do we really believe that north korea could come closer to south korea . Julian we believe that it may hopefully over time come closer. I think unification is difficult to envisage. It would be extremely costly for south korea. It would dwarf the invitation of east and west germany. It would undoubtedly require u. S. And chinese agreement, and obviously, i do not think thats likely anytime soon. So, consequently, reform within south korea hopefully will be good for business generally and stability. Francine are you invested in the region . Are investedwe in that region in general and the longerterm growth undoubtedly yes. I think in the shortterm, we were talking earlier about fears of protectionism and strong dollar, you will see volatility in the region as well. Francine would you wait it out . Julian we have been very longterm investors in asia. I wouldnt necessarily say this was the entry point. Francine stocks or currencies . Julian mainly stocks. Francine Bond Exposure in specific countries . Julian more general, because it is easier for our client base to buy across the board then to target specific countries where you will see greater volatility. Francine thank you so much. Julian chillingworth, the chief Investment Officer at rathbones joining us for the first half hour. Up next, as theresa may heads back hits back, a post brexit trade agreement could take 15 years, we speak to the finance minister of luxembourg. Yesterday we also spoke to jamie jimon. We will get his views on brexit. He certainly believes that bankers should be prepared and they should get prepared together. This is bloomberg. Francine welcome to our weekly brexit show live in london. Im Francine Lacqua. Heres nejra. Nejra the uk Prime Minister formed the for fired the former finance minister. The Upper Chamber rewrote her draft law to guarantee parliament