German figures. Italy is in line. The gdp portion, it is more important what mario draghi is looking at. Tom absolutely. You see the economy growing less in the initial estimate, which gets back to the carney announcement yesterday of a lower forecast from britain. You wonder where the dynamic is, where a economies will pick up in 2016. I have not seen it yet other than the one german item this morning. Belowne a touch estimates. The real question, how much does it have to do with a weaker euro, and how much does it have to do with real growth spurred by economic reform . Lets get to the first word news. Nejra you have the numbers from the euro zone as a whole. Germanys economy grew at the fastest rate in two years. Gdp rose7 10 tense of a percent beating estimates. Thoughfset record unemployment in germany which has boosted consumer spending. A report says the European UnionsNaval Operation to stop people smugglers in the mediterranean isnt working. Lawmakers in the house of lords says disrupting the migrant business is falling short. Succeeding in rescuing refugees on the high seas. In syria, the hezbollah military group has suffered a blow. One of its Senior Commanders has been killed. In charge of hezbollahs military operations in syria. According to a lebanese report he was killed by an israeli airstrike. Personal information on Chinese Communist party leader has been leaked on twitter. Among them jack ma and wang jin lin. Many of the tweets were quickly it in investigating Donald Trumps former butler for making threats against president obama online. Facebook, he called for the president to be killed. Campaign disavows the remarks. Global news, 24hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists, in 150 news bureaus around the world. I am nejra cehic. Tom what a strange week. Lets go through it. Equities, bonds, currencies, futures negative eight. Turned, dollar is stronger, not a big deal. Twoyear, the german 5. 5 on the bloomberg. That is what im watching. The german twoyear. The curve is flattening in the United States of america. Francine curve flattening. Going back to the german twoyear, looking at japan. I want to show you the yen. What is important is that we had fed speakers saying the markets the ratepricing in hike. Corrode it is signaling divergence, but it is not being played out on the markets so much. Cold is a touch, but nothing to write home about when you have central bankers saying they will do different things. Tom economic data, retail sales in america, the theme in the 6 00 hour, the consumer. This is something we dont normally look at, the university of michigan ann arbor, blue. An, go, the expectations of inflation in five years. Here it is, what we have done is , 2ached this low in 2003 decades in the belief of america of where inflation is headed. There has been a real change, a mindset in america over a lower inflation regime. Banksne a lot of central are getting used to the lower inflation regime. This is what i am looking at. I thought i would do Something Different since it is friday. Apple put 1 billion into uber. E im looking at the apple market value in white, also debt, formally known as google, is blue. You remember the shock news in january that google is bigger. In market value. Going back to that crosspoint tom i think the yellow circle looks like vancleave earrings. Is that subliminal . They look a little bit like earrings with the dots. Francine the convergence looking like bank leaf earrings like van cleef earrings. Our guest host for the hour is robin niblett. We want to talk about apple. We will talk about brazil. Todays the first time that we will hear from the new finance minister. We know who he is because we interviewed him when he was the central bank governor. It is striking when you look at the at there is not much diversity and this is the melting pot of the world. How difficult will it be to have the citizens behind them. Robin it depends on what you mean. There is a Strong Majority in backed thet impeachment. Not supporters of the workers party, but looking at opinion polls, they have been in favor of impeachment by majority. That doesnt mean it is easy to get people behind the government. People want a solution. They want growth. Given this opportunity where brazil was growing economically and becoming more just socially. That is the magic sweet spot. Now they are losing it. Commodity growth collapses, infrastructure hasnt happened, oil prices have dropped, Energy Investment is not taking place people will not be looking at if they are white, old, and male , people will saying 10 they get things done . Can they get us out of the petrobras driven crisis moment . That is my guess. Francine how difficult is it to turn around brazil in a manner that is quick enough to where you do not lose the support . Robin it will be very difficult to do it quickly. Around the world, if they feel a government has a plan and are working on it you can buy six months or a year. Some of the problems will be longterm huge liabilities in the pensions. That makes the longterm budget samethis unsustainable. Getting some of the Corruption Scandal out of the way and having professionals taking care of the economy, that can help. Tom the greater view of brazil, this is something that Chatham Houses stability, they talk about a new leader tilting to the right. This year, Chatham House is seeing austria, the philippines, the campaign in the United States, and now brazil with a possible tilt to the right. When does the Tipping Point on the rightness of the many nations . Robin great questions. We just got a person elected as the mayor of london, but i think that is a peculiar thing or london. I think the two to the right is a sense that the left is not providing answers in a moment of insecurity. The greater the economic insecurity, the less room the average public and voters feel they have to experiment with answers in the social level. The tilt to the right youre seeing that you picked out across a number of countries is a reflection of insecurity more broadly. That will not go anywhere soon. If you look at spain where we ave had this standoff with new election pushed off to june 26, the spanish Prime Minister has been waiting for the shoe to fall on his side. Maybe the rise will drift off at that time. Angela merkel who was looking week may be stabilizing. People are looking for professional answers. Tom i agree with the trends and nuances within each nation. This is for zells positions. Brazil per capita gdp in. Argentina is above them, a richer nation. Up 46,000 states is per year per capita gdp. What is important is a search for growth in brazil. Years are marked with a rising slope of per capita gdp. How do they get back to that . Your this is a classic chart is pointing out the middle economy trap. How do you move from developing economy to middle economy . That transition, which china is also trying to go through, is the most difficult the goods you need effective government and social services. People need to know that consumption has to be driven in a way that is sustainable. That is incredibly difficult. My sense is that brazil is not there right now. China is trying to make that adjustment right now. Argentina may have a better they did beforehand, but this is a global problem. The shift from developing to middle economy is one of the most challenging. Tom the nuances between roselle and chart between brazil and china, and an easier task in a smaller argentina. Brian white will join us and we will look at the stumble in apple and the one billion position in china. Francine i am Francine Lacqua in london. Tom keene is in new york. Lets get straight before the weekend to the Bloomberg Business flash. Airbag recall keeps getting bigger. Honda will recall 21 million vehicles equipped with takata airbags. They have deflator is that can deploy to forcefully. Had negative Interest Rates longer than denmark. Rates have been below zero for almost 4 years. Currency reserves have been built up and sales of lawns have been halted. And the sales of bonds have been halted. Lowheyre working like positive Interest Rates. We have not seen any lasting consequences of the Interest Rates so far. Nejra managers of danish pensions and savings funds say the negative rates count for adjusting. For lessve more and go risky investments. Apple is placing a bet on ubers rival in china. It is one of their biggest investments ever. A chance to forge alliances in the biggest Single Market outside of the u. S. Francine in asia the bank of kuroda,vernor, governor says there is room for easing policy further. We are joined by ryan. What governor grotta was trying to say is that it takes time for the effects of Monetary Policy to appear. We have seen a change in policy, or do we not think it is that important . The key thing he said is that he does not need to wait to see the full impact that has already taken steps before he ask again. Last time, last month, when they held policy steady, he explained it by saying that they have to wait and see how taking steps will do. He has put more risk into the market and added to the uncertainty. Anything can happen as early as june. Tom how many arrows are there left in abenomics. Over the weekend, will there be accounting of the arrows . Brain arrows, darts, really sharp pencils. I think what we will see is a lot of impact focused on the physical side. We have been talking on the fiscal side. His closest advisers are saying that they want to postpone the increase of the sales tax. Will mover. Abe forward with that idea. Also a stimulus package. We think that is what he will be offering. Tom do they make japanese helicopters . Is that more than the first version of helicopter money . Kuroda hasar, mr. Said that he will not go there and will not think about it. What youre saying is right. It could be the model a of helicopter money. Francine how important is the outlook for fed policy determining what kuroda does next . Brain very important. We have the two fed president s in boston overnight making hawkish comments to support the dollar today. That takes a lot of the pressure off of mr. Kuroda. You can see with Interest Rates projected to diverge further, that could be helpful to mr. Kuroda. In japan, negative Interest Rates will probably get deeper before it is done. Tom can i quickly show japanese helicopters . We need to help brian fowler get ready for monday. This is great. Helicopters over all of japan with fiscal policy. I want to help brian, francine. Francine do they have a special place where the money drops out of them . John im looking into it now, because i want to catch it with a big net. Francine thank you, brian fowler from our tokyo bureau. When you look at abenomics, the problem is the yen is important, because you need companies not to be weighted down. To be able to pay more so inflation picks up. Will abenomics work . Robin it seems to be moving around the problem rather than addressing the problem. The problems are fundamental. It is the first country that has begun a steep decline on its asian curve, demographically. They refuse to accept any immigration. Theyre not contributing as much to the workforce. It is the country with the lowest proportion of gdp in the world. Getting that an injection of new blood in terms of people. Tinkering around the edges to make the economy lift itself up. They need a low yen to hope them with outside growth, but with Energy Headwinds holding new inl power plants, a decline china, one of the main trading partners i think the euuctural reforms, tpp, and trade agreement, that is the third arrow. On theade percolating edge of the president ial debate. Taxes are front and center. We will address that. Let me look at data. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. 10. Res, thou futures, 84. A lower yield with critically curve flattened. You may not care, the pros do. The curve flattening in america. Francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. A gorgeous friday in new york. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom features 11. I will call it quiet markets, but it is not a quiet debate in the United States on mr. Trump and his taxes. Tim obrien knows those taxes better than anyone. Of chathamin niblett house. In the United Kingdom, the politicians have to show their tax returns . They will probably have to increasingly since David Cameron was forced to do that after the panama papers. We are headed in that direction in the u. K. Tom help me out, francine. Is there an uproar in the u. K. About tax transparency . Francine a little bit. When you look at tax transparency, people in the u. K. Cannot believe that trump is the main candidate for the Republican Party. People ask me, why does the Republican Party not split . Why is there not a new party . He cannot even get the support of paul ryan. Robin he may get the support of paul ryan. It sounds like they were circling the wagon. The numbers in the president ial election look like trump could beat clinton. Maybe he will moderate. He is a businessman. Can make statements like i am change my opinion. He could flop again. Francine we will talk more about u. S. Politics and the imf and madame lagarde giving a live News Conference as we speak, weighing in on the brexit, saying that this is a risk for the world as a whole. There has been pushed back from pro brexit supporters. Theyre saying that a lot of World Leaders have not weighed in and they do not see the risk. Are as a madame lagarde says this is a risk for world growth. That is next. Francine i am Francine Lacqua in london. Tom keene in new york. We are looking at Central Bank Monetary divergence. Lets get to the bloomberg first. Ord news with nejra cehic u. S. Authorities are ramping up their part of the corruption investigation involving brazils state owned oil company. The petrobras probe has already lead to arrests in brazil. The u. S. Is looking into more than one dozen operations. It has been called the most secure financial messaging system and the world. Cyber crooks have a tax it again. Swiss is used by banks to move money around the world. Unnamedck involved an bank. They stole 81 million from the central bank of bangladesh. Germany is pressuring the International Monetary fund over greece. Germany wants the imf to accept assurances that the debt burden will be addressed in the future. The imf is under pressure to isept greek a sturdy that greek austerity that is less than what they want. Sailors were held by iran for 15 hours before being released. The executive commander of their unit has been relieved of the Navy Personnel and is likely to be disciplined. A federal judge in washington dealt a blow to obamas Health Care Reform act. Saying that it is unconstitutional. Republicans argued that Congress Must appropriate the money. The judge put her ruling on hold pending an appeal. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Tom former bank of england policymakers were among 200 economists who signed a letter in the londonbased times opposing the United Kingdom exit european union. We are joined by gentlemen doing the heavy lifting. Tony yates is in economics at the university of birmingham. He is using every tool available, including his intellect. He is going back and forth on twitter. Here is tony yates on twitter about the brexit debate. What i love about your 200 people is that it is an eclectic group. Stephanie flanders, who often appears with us. Alberto golomb with algeb ris. What has been the response to your 200 letter moment . Prof. Yates overwhelming. We did not get anyone writing bachelors, telling us they oppose the lesson. We did get some against letters in principle, and there was a debate over whether economists should poke their nose into public affairs. Tom what is your point versus gerard lions in the times of london . Think we need about one hour to go through all of that. Tom you have 30 seconds. It seems to us the best we could hope for with the norwaylike deal where we have access as a Single Market. For that, we subject ourselves to Free Movement of labor and the cost of leaving the eu will be relatively small. However, one suspects that the leave count will what to infringe on Free Movement of labor and that will have to be paid for by reduced access to the Single Market. Francine madame lagarde is in london giving a speech for article 4. She is talking a lot about the brexit. She is saying theres anxiety around the world about the brexit. That politics is not the job of the imf, but there is a significant downside risk. The politics and the economy gets confused. A lot of people say mark carney is weighing in on the debate, but how much of this is a question . Hugerexit will have implications, economically, on the future of this country. Robin the independent estimates, at best you will get hit in the first year or two, and it could go up to 6 to 2030. I am not an economist. My impression is when you get the majority of people saying something to know what theyre talking about, i listen to the majority. It is the timing. This is not happening in a vacuum. It is happening when the european economy is a mess, greece is on the ropes, china is slowing down, president ial candidate trump and clinton there are moments in the economy where this shift a major top taki