If you look at the we talk a lot about president s and then look at the g 24. Tom the one oddity is the german twoyear continues with the low yield. That will be one of our themes is you really wonder what the well explore that throughout the show. Caroline . Caroline well, frontrunner donald trump was marco rubio and ted cruz went after trump with everything from his health care and at one point rubio brought up the now defunct trump university. And they are suing him now. 36,000. Thats a fake school. And you know what they got . They got to take home a cardboard cutout of donald trump. Thats what they got for 36,000. Francine more than a dozen states will hold primaries and this time in kansas. This time police say a man opened fire in multiple locations killing three people. They say most of the shootings took place at the factory where he worked. The United NationsSecurity Council is preparing to they are aimed at forcing the country to curtail its news program. They obtained a draft and contained ships going in and out of ports. Plus the country can no longer import aviation fields. Voters in iran are costing president hassan rivals attempts to block the economy and british lawmakers want greater power and dismissal of power over governments. Members say that would help keep the regulators independent from government. More than 150 news bureaus around the world. Im caroline. Tom lets get to equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. Higher futures up a good 18. Dow futures up 145 taking dow out to 16,818. Oil very nice, but thats american oil at the bottom of the screen. 29 up to 3386 in the next week or so. Well under the average. Theres the dow. Closed yesterday. I wouldnt know if the one oddity is a negative 0. 542 right now, that does get my attention. Francine . Francine yes. It does get my attention. As well. Its declined to the lowest since june and we have seen a little bit of trickling data suggesting this has an impact on data. You can stop gaining oil and still gaining euro u. S. Dollar 110. Look, weve seen quite a lot of of course we get ever closer o that june 23rd referendum. Tom the euro quote is that one of our illustrious london staff hat just didnt go home last night . Went and had beverages of their choice . Our creative euro quote this morning. Lets go over to a creative bloomberg right now. Weve shown this before. This is a big deal. Francine, up we go with a very nice u. S. Recovery. Heres the hope and prayer. For rate increases as we roll over. Meanwhile, the german twoyear ith a leg down very near the 0. 551 low weve seen. I mean two different worlds as they go to g20, isnt it . Already we are getting the pboc from china saying they are happy to act more. We are seeing strong signals from the german chancellor. Now for more, lets get to shanghai where we are joined by you spoke to gary kohn and some of the finance ministers. Are they concerned that market turmoils are meant to mask something bigger . The sense im getting here and based on the people ive spoken is that markets tend to overshoot. We know that. Now, that being said, you know, going into this meeting, expectations were quite high that finance ministers get together and put something, coordinate some sort of response and hopefully avert what the bears are saying. That being said, though, how do you do that, there are also expectations that we want to avoid mess up already fluid Monetary Policy. So we heard from in fact he was speaking right when the governor was speaking. He basically said thats going to create more trouble. You know, fiscal and monetary stimulus has run its course, and the stimulus we are getting now, just looking at the omment is cheap oil. Francine what will come out of these talks . Sometimes they say look, you shouldnt devalue. Are we expecting them to be that little bit harsher on competitive devaluations . You mentioned it. I was talking to deparey coleman from goldman. We will probably get a vague statement. We already got some sort of decide from the chinese of what we should expect from them. I was looking through local media even before this started. He described these expectations of a applause of style and accord. With that point guard said, though, i was listening to the governor speak earlier, and what he said was that yes, theres a problem, put its not dire enough to merit us bringing tout big bazookas. They have the tools to deal with it should it come necessary. Francine nice to know they have bazookas. Now, when you look at g20 this is jack lew, shoaib lynn and others saying we need to focus on structural reforms. Actually, what we need is coordinated actions to start this on the market. Its about the tools that you have and weve used a lot of money in this central bank action, unconventional and it looks like we are running out of time with those. The problem is we have the con very janice of geeo politics as put in a gap in time to meaningful structural reforms. Its do we need things to get much worse before the g20 actually decides to take this or not. Just central bank release. I remember gordon brown and at 1 g 7, the charge says it all which is g20 real gdt. Bloomberg put it together and its a fascinating statement of what has returned. Ts that one persistent long g 20 growth. Virginia, am i right that we are still not back and the basic statement is g20 growth even when isnt there . I depreefment and i think with a we are seeing in thal markets now is the adaptation to this Slower Growth world as the emerging market slows and the and its adjusting for that next step, if you want. We need structural reform. But i think what is missed possibly in terms of talk with the g20 is geopolitics. En you think about this, the timing of june is not, you know, a question out of the blue or point out of the blue, it coincides with the peak of the selling season in terms of refugees, because this is the time when its easier to so you are going to have a convergence of of data that at best has been mixed. Not only at the g20 level but globally. And in a quite negative way, ind you. Francine yes. And it coincides with not wanting to panic people because of the refugee crisis but also the uk, they want people to go to the polls. Tom yes. I saw an article where they wanted to get that i cant imagine many people wanting to get involved in the contentious debate in the united kingdom. Joined by robert hor math of sisen jer associates. Robert hor mats, bob hor mats and richard burner will join us in the next hour on economics. Tom futures down. Lets get to a friday Bloomberg Business flash from caroline. Care ryan . Thank you, and the worlds ggest the german company, says it slump was going down in its oil and gas unit. Meanwhile, the profits are flying high at iag. They are in talks to add more wifi with the surging demand. Meanwhile the chief executive says will not affect its business. They are all taking a hit from the concern they are all leading the union. Meanwhile, the measure of confidence has fallen to its lowest level in 362 years. Thats business. Francine . Francine caroline, thank you so much. Now the bank of england governor warned about getting broiled call he calls ate zero sum game. When zero rates are implemented in ways that insulate retail customers shutting off channels that mainly allowing wholesale adjustments, it can affect the Exchange Rate. This may be a way to boost activity. But the transfer of demand weakness elsewhere is also a zero sum game. Lets bring in the founder of needle knows advisors. You are concerned about their rates at the bottom. But policymakers didnt have a choice to do more because root forms well, there has to be an end to the potent cri of the Central Banks reform. Yes. Well, i mean, you can, but its and the a pass efficacy. And i think its increasingly theavet if you get to the tremes of prices or that, it actually is productive. So the question is that do things have to get much worse when we have a fragile balance. Weve got a lot of geopolitical and political pressure. We have elections coming in europe. We have clearly in march and germany in 2017 and we have u. S. And russia. I mean, theres a lot of things happening. Fran but will they get worse . We have had some worse than expected ideas that the shock is coming. I think its a slow grind. I think i think the consequences that are structural have not really been priced in, and the market has adjusted to alure price, but and i would say still looking at familiar indicators. I think we need to look at new indicators. If you look at whats happening with russia and russia and syria, you could say that this is a tool in a way to divide europe. Tom virginia, im glad youre bringing that up. We have headlines coming across bloomberg right now. We have seen from it says syria with no progress. Then you see oil. Daytoday, virginia, do you belief theres a geopolitical part in the price of oil . Or did that evaporate in the move . I think its definitely a geopolitical part, which is showing that the tables have turned. Trying to get together all the old factions, if you want, that have power over the old prize, every time they try to get together and do something, it shows failure, and it shows how that structure really changes. And i think its important and explains why partial in the middle east have changed. So are you seeing russia . Russia action in syria to have boom also, if you want, in turk yip, so that when those arrive in the spring or summer in europe, to create much more divide in europe. Now, that might be a little farfetched. But if you look at it on a global basis, can that i think that is a very valued doubt ahead of those elections that we are having. Tom right. Virginia joins us. Coming up, while we will look at the political news and shout fest known razz the Republican Debate all migrating into supertuesday. All that and more tonight. Francine im Francine Lacqua here in london. Tom keene in new york. And we are focusing on apple. Its the judicial order to help the federal bureau of investigation unlock the iphone of the terrorists. Tom, this boils down to technology, and security versus privacy. Who is going to win . Ha ha, well, in some ways apple has already won, because its put itself out there and gone on the record saying we re going to stand up for our customers. They may lose in the courts but in terms of their staking a stand up against government, they have already gained a victory there. Tom tom, i have been reading 1889. Ritz act of would you sprain why the government is going back to George Washington to help us with this modern iphones . They are saying that it gives them the authority they need to say no, you have the opportunity to ask to ask congress to expand that authority, and you failed to do it. So in there if you read their order last night, their response last night, tom, they are saying shame on you, government. You have the opportunity to ask or more authority to decrypt and you didnt, so therefore, you do not have the authority to force my hand now. Tom do you assume this goes to in a general phrase, congress . Thats what apple wants, which is a very risky in an Election Year when you can see that all the candidates want to turn this into a political hot potato and that apple wants to when you get politics involved, rational sometimes goes out the window. Tom tom with Bloomberg News leading our technology coverage. Thank you. In our next section here thank you louisiana will join us from the bank. This is a nice idea of emerging markets and where we are in a single digit world. I think it used to be double , atul coming up. This is bloomberg surveillance. Francine im Francine Lacqua here in london. Talking to you in new york. Lets get straight to the news with caroline. Francine, thank you. A United Nations security county critical want to approve the ceasefire today. It takesal effect at midnight. He s according to syrias, worked out the deal with the secretary of state. As the islamic states were excluded, attacks on them will continue. Marco rubio went after frontrunner donald trump in the last time the candidates would be together. Before the primary. Youre the only person on this stage thats ever been work r hiring people to on your projects illegally. Time only one on this stage who has hired people. The u. S. Plans to put special Operations Forces on e front lines with nigerias boko haram. St d china is Prime Minister leads the Coalition Government and is trying to become the first leader of his party to win a second consecutive term. And india is about to join an exclusive club. Its had a submarine for decades but now india is close o becoming the sixth country to own a submarine capable of firing a nuclear weapon. Im caroline hyde. Om thank you. The shift. Joins us. S and atul this is a log chart, a little bit of math on a friday, folks. Stay with me. Its a log chart. Slope matters. Thats all you got to know. Slope matters. The perception is the green arrow up to the peak and the pretty good steep necessary of the yellow arrow. Atul, we dont buy at the bottom of the market. We buy randomly from a doubledigit bull market reality to a single digit return. Yes. We are seeing that the markets are stag nating and now we are moving towards a period of number two. When we start to say its difficult to get that expansion. So were saying where its at a t and the tom fold in the top line. Bring the chart up again, and what we need to know is nominal g. D. P. , the expectation of top line growth at companies was probably a little better at the green and yellow arrows and home depot and lowes were top , but atul the reason behind that is we have got the low Interest Rates but now its up to companies reinvesting. You can do stock buybacks and really its a reinvest but really its what we think will eep the bull market expanding. Francine but what needs to happen for those to start reinvesting. Atul well, i think we need to see less shocks and see a confidence recover from where we are right now and we need to see more stable consumption. Scoufpks, improving then we will start to see that compaq. Francine when you look at that, its quite different to know because its different to environment. We are having nothing that different come out. And yes. So clearly sentiment is in that process and it goes through phases of disappointment and adapts to that level. Youre right. Its in a fragile state. Markets move because of sentiment macrogeopolitics and company data. Company data locally, we have had a lot of particularly on the back of the fourth quarter. Geopolitics macrois mixed and sentiment is a notch down. So i think its possible that we have bear market rallies. And until we have a structural shift that takes place, those are going to be tom let me go to you fist. Well touch on this with richard berner, formerly with morgan stanley, he has been dabs, atul talked about interest illusion. This deflation allows for odd business thinking. We are there right now, arent we . Atul yes, quite simply youve got the cost of which is so low, and that really distorts the normal business cycle. When you talk about the what we really need to see is moving more towards a normalized stance. Tom right. Virginia, what is the consequence of business rate increases and in economies that are doing good . Lets say in the u. S. And the u. K. . What would happen . I think it depends on the growth. If its based on clear signals of recovery in america and the rest of the world is in shape. That would be positive. If you have it in an environment where we try to normalize where the rest of the world is fragile, we are creating an environment where it is binary and particularly its overlay shocks, so a lot about finetuning which is what the markets are fearful of. Inflation is not to be seen and the amount of normalizing inflation and its taking much longer than we are expecting it to. So normalizing Interest Rates seems unlikely. And what your original expectations are, what we have to ask ourselves with regards to expectations which are still coming down to lower parts of the world is when does that anniversary of weak inflation in all those countries where on a year on year basis we are seeing a level of normization, and i think we are not there yet. Tom mmhmm. Virginia with us and atul lele with us as well. If you want to get this off the bloomberg terminal, we have talked to the gremlins on the 33rd floor here. G with a hashtag. Thats brilliant. B tv 46, and now we will get you the actual chart. I used to thats on the 346. Berg terminal g btv i get like a tenth of a penny when you do that. W Robert Hormats and richard bernier, its like a flash fwook 2005. Hormats and bernier in our next hour. Stay with us. Tom with the meetings in shanghai. We will touch on that with hormats and richard berner. But heres our caroline hyde. Audi will take another shot at knocking off b. M. W. Ast year audi fell behind. One reason is it had the oldest line of the three competitors. Nintendo blames weak sales of ts hand held console on 3 m. And next month nintendo comes out with its first smartphone. And shares of the world bank of scotland dropped for the first time. It reported its eighth consecutive annual loss. They paid out billions in misconduct. Rbf had hoped to resume paying dividends early next year. Thats the Bloomberg Business splash. Francine . Francine when you look at the charts, caroline, of course it feels quite dramatic when the share price first opened. This is i think a little bit early. Im not sure what we are looking at. Lets stick with rbs. Its definitely our morning shares falling and right now shares are trading below 9 . Lets bring in bloombergs michael moore. So michael rbs basically plummeting because its been pushing out the dividends and they are going to be much tougher on compensation. Yes. One reason is they have this overhang from the u. S. Mortgage settlement that may be coming at some point. They warned analysts that they dont control the timeline of that. They are not having substance substantive conversations. Rbs is on the later, and it sounds like its not coming immediately. So the uncertainty there is also weighing. Francine and they have loads with, gs to deal restructuring the banks. We need to forget about 2016 and look into 2017 . Well they hoped it would be the firstquarter and 2016 i think they are expecting more restructuring costs and expecting more issues from this p. T. I. Issue. So i think youre going to see more struggles in 2016 as they try to turn this around. Tom its on the edge of a citi group chart but michael moore, theres no equivalen