With me as Caroline Hyde. Do you even know what a butterfinger is . Carolyn i know what a kick cap is. Kit kat. Is. Tom it is not european chocolate, it is an american acquired taste. As of right now we need to get to the bloomberg first word news. Vonnie David Cameron hopes to close the deal on that u. K. Membership. Confessions if he gets the concessions he wants there will be a four month warned there is no guarantee that he will get an agreement. Turkeys Prime Ministers is a overnight, turkey carried out airstrikes against kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq. Turmoil has gotten worse in the ukraine. There isoalition a battle between president poroshenko and that ukrainian Prime Minister. Obama will make history with a trip next month to cuba, 55 years after the u. S. Broke diplomatic ties amidst the cold war. More than a year ago, the Obama Administration and cubas communist government agreed to normalize relations. The regime is still criticized for human rights violations. Leadd trump has a big prior to the South Carolina primary. Marco Rubio Jeb Bush are fighting it out for third. Rubio got a big boost on thursday when he was endorsed by nikki haley. I am vonnie quinn. Tom lets look at data here. Week acrossa clumsy all sorts of things. On, risk off idea is fading away into sort of a clumsy feel. Flat, the euro has done nothing for three days. Oil with a left over the past few days. Improved, 22. 31. Spread grudgingly curve, wet yield need to watch again, a determinant. Stronger yen after weaker yesterday. Deutsche bank has been all over the map. Caroline,red what do you have . Just starting to come in on the senior side of things but we are looking at the stoxx 600, shares desperately trying to ramp up to sustain yesterdays rally. What headlines are coming out this morning, we are seeing them cutting eurozone Growth Outlook from 1. 47 . It is germany they are raining 1. 3 with German Growth at. Global outbreaks are being outlooks are being cut. And trustingly, they hold that view on chinese growth study. They still see six and a half percent. Tom dr. Mann was with us a few months ago from brandeis university, and the expert in the United States on trade. Catherine mann its is no words and calls it flatlined. She looks for urgency policy response, so that is a really Important Note to study from the oecd. I am glad you brought that up. Lets go to over to the terminal. I am boring vonnie to death. It is just oil, down we go. 31. E we are above i love how our story puts the iran part of this agreement, the cool embrace. Tom steve short looking at this in the macro and say on a somatic on an asymmetric basis, we will test lower. Caroline . Caroline cmc holding that view that until we hit over 36 on need, that is the level we to see any sustained growth on oil. As we see that correlation writedown, lets focus on china. Bank,nas central conducting open Market Operations every working day. Lets go straight out to shanghai to get to the bottom of what this means. Allen wan is joining us now. This is about control of liquidity, control of cash in the system. They want to do it daily. Month it seems that last we had this record surge in lending and a lot of people saying it had seasonal effects but this will not continue. What we have seen the last few days is the pboc and government are intent on maintaining this lending momentum to boost the economy. Dman sachs came out with a they came out with a very bullish report on the economy saying that even though our growth has continued to slow and it will be bumpy, there is nothing to worry about. Low and behold, the pboc comes out with all this measure that will reduce the rate that charges lenders to borrow money. It just shows the government is intent on spurring the economy through lower Interest Rates. Is the consensus belief as a general statement on Economic Growth in china . Oecd and Catherine Mann have just suggested over 24 months, it is 6 plus. How alone is the oecd . Allen it is really hard to say. They are probably in the lower end of the spectrum. Today, the japanese ministers are saying that china is poised for a hard landing so there are a lot of conflicting views. Last fewave seen the days if the government coming out with aggressive measures to boost lending, that we have not seen since 2009. The stock market more than doubled when the government came out with their record stimulus that year. Tom allen wan, thank you so much. Caroline we have the perfect guest to do it with, andrew sheets. Talk to us, andrew, about your view on what is happening in china. At the amount of intervention coming from the government to support Lower Borrowing costs and they are trying to sustain cash within the area as well, with the over Market Operations. Are you backing Goldman Sachs . Andrew i think in the shortterm, these measures are clearly good for the market. Confidencehas lacked in the ability of china to stabilize its growth profile. I think you have seen some of that in the concern around Commodity Markets and the weakness of economic sectors. Policymakers are focused on these issues, aware of these issues. The fact the currents he continues to hold in the range the pboc indicated is a good thing for confidence. If weing to keep in mind, think about where a level of the market concern is over china in the big heckscher, that has related to the buildup of credit growth in the country, excessive growth in the eyes of many. This shortterm boost is a good thing but i am not sure the market is going to look at that and say that as a longterm solution that will make us feel confident on the broader chinese macro picture. Caroline are you expecting banks to start falling over . Are we going to see this credit out of the market . Andrew i think easing policy is the right thing to do. Given how entrenched deflationary pressures are, i think lower rates in china make sense but i think what the market wants to see is after a long year. Were credit has grown a period where credit has grown and china, looking for signs that china can grow the economy. Look at the oecd report it is about a dampening. How do you create growth . If you are advising catherine morning, how would you say that we are supposed to generate Global Growth . Twoew i think there are key elements of this. Policymakers and i think they are trying to do this are keeping Interest Rates below neutral levels, which is net stimulative. They cannot in themselves stimulate growth they can at least help. I think the second element is, what would help his in areas where there is demand deficiency , and i think you see that across a number of places, to look for instances where you would see longerterm investment either on the corporate side or on the government side. I think given where corporate and government can borrow, you can make the argument that there should be projects that can generate a return in excess of the current darling cost. Borrowing cost. Those projects obviously have to be made with the assumption they are net contributive. Tom andrew sheets with us for the hour for perspective on the Global Economy. We will get Global Perspectives from the chief executive officer of nestle, paul bulcke will join us. Caroline hyde in london, i am in new york, stay with us. Tom we welcome you worldwide on a thursday morning, in gorgeous new york city. I took a walk in central park last night and it was truly lovely, a late winter beautiful mark walk. Right now we need to get to our Bloomberg Business flash with vonnie quinn. Vonnie nestle says sales rose in 2015 at the slowest rate in six years. They were hurt by weak demand in asia and a product recall in india. They say sales this year will go above last year more than 4 . We will speak to nestles ceo. Has got its greatest profit in the past two years. Vodafone is going into the bond market. They are planning to raise about 4. 1 billion by selling mandatory convertible bonds, convertible into regular shares. That is our latest Bloomberg Business flash. Caroline of course, we have always got to keep our eye on the prices. We are obsessed on commodity with commodity movement, wti currently up. Brent extending those gains after iran voices support for the output freeze. We want to see how much impact iran has. Javier bloss is joining us. The jury seems to be out. The ihs says this is important, but they do not outline whether theyre going to be dampening output themselves. Javier it is a very clever play of words that was used yesterday. He is welcoming but is not saying whether he will adhere to the agreement. I think saudi and arabia did what they needed and now is the moment of true diplomacy going back to the back channels to negotiate how to move forward. I think the market will get some comfort that iran is being rejected. This is putting a flow into the oil market, it is not a green light to go and beat up a market. Caroline we have a major reaction when you are saying 2 gain on wti. We are still not hitting that much above 30, but is there a flaw . We are freezing at record high production where we are still seeing shale come out of the u. S. See a you will begin to flow because we have gone significantly below what we were expecting to go. We are 30 and the physical market. In many places they are trading well below those levels. To shuts are starting down production and that is what is really creating a bit of comfort to the market. The biggest question is, the market is seeing action from said,n a year where they we are not going to do anything. Now opec is beginning to talk about doing things. The market is perceiving that opec is back into movement. Tom buried in 25 or 30 headlines this morning on turkey from the imf, there is a quote from a turkish economist on oil for longer. I know there is a benefit to cheap oil prices, cheap natural gas prices, are we seeing that now that the imf guesstimate would be even worse if oil was at a higher price . Is a hardthink this issue that a lot of forecasters have struggled with because the regular relationship has broken down. I think we have to think about why, one reason could be the decline in oil and the type of factors driving that decline have been very different from anything we have probably seen since 1986. On the demand side, you are seeing month after month small benefits to consumers, huge one off declines in Capital Expenditure that if hit immediately and been a big drag to growth in the u. S. And elsewhere. I think it is those big one drags one off drugs is andrew sheets threatening to discuss income and substitution of facts, we do not do that on thursday. There will be a quiz at the end of the hour on the economics of oil supply and demand. Next hour, we will not look at the micro, we will look at the macro of technology, health, and our social good in america. We are happy to bring Michael Porter in the next hour. , alwaysda greenhouse definitive on the Supreme Court and the New York Times on justice scalia. I have to read every word of that and i hope you do too. Strong New York Times oped today. Vonnie, you have a different take. Vonnie the title of the oped ofa variation on the theme why candidates are getting along so well in this election. And i quote American Voters to be demanding change but sometimes they turn to reforms and other times two scapegoats, like refugees. The historic question in 2016 is which direction the popular revolt among American Voters will ultimately take. Tom and to his point, whether liberal or conservative and it is interesting that the word liberal is coming back. But the basic idea of the calendar, it is march. We are getting there so with mr. Trump and mr. Sanders gathering many of the headlines. Vonnie there was a recent poll , thecame out yesterday size of the lead is growing. The question of South Carolina is third place. Tom andrew sheets with us this morning. Not to get personal, but do you do a write in ballot . Andrew i vote absentee. Tom it shows the International Reach of the election. It is germane to help close this could be. Your thoughts on the tension as we start to get into the serious primaries. Andrew i think there are a few things to keep in mind. I think there is a long track record of the early primary votersbeing dominated by who are at more of the political extremes on either end of the political spectrum. Process,ve through the how much does this momentum keep up, and i think that is what markets are focused on. I think at the moment markets have been quite unreactive to the political landscape, may be rightly so because it is still early on in the process. I think you will see more focused on where this is going to settle out. Caroline we have to bring it close to home because politics will be dominating your trading day, as the Brexit Debate unfolds in brussels, we will take you there live. This is bloomberg surveillance. Stick with us as we watch the markets continue to trade volatile, mine is down in the u. K. Tom good morning, everyone. Lets look at the data. Curve steepening, clumsy risk on, noncorrelated, all over the place. 1. 08 sis points, difference between the two year and the 10 year. The yen is stronger and we are watching Deutsche Bank turn and try to find a direction. Here is our bloomberg first word news. Vonnie turkey bombed kurdish militant positions in iraq. Peoplelled at least 28 and the turkish Prime Minister says turkish rebels in syria carried out the remark the attack. Change in the relationship between the u. S. And cuba, president obama will travel to havana this month. He and president raul castro agreed to normalize relations for the countries that have been estranged for more than half a century. Congress will not lift a trade embargo. South korea is warning that north korea is planning terrorist attacks. He has ordered his military to increase the terror capabilities. They are pushing the National Assembly to pass new antiterrorism bills. Ted cruz leads all president ial candidates in donations from the oil industry. He has surpassed jeb bush, his father, and brother. Large Energy Investors have given 25 million to crews. Teche, facebook, and other companies are supporting apple in its fight against the u. S. Government. It has refused to help the government unlock a cell phone of one of the terrorists from san bernardino. Our 24 hours day powered by 2400 journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. Tom this is a huge deal for everyone involved. Areae and such a great between terror and privacy. Tom my answer as dumbest guy on , i want to know what paul could ask you thinks about this. Mr. Cook is playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship with the u. S. Government, just as an opening line. Vonnie a fantastic conversation between Megan Mcardle and and ian lake. Fear of the hackers or fear the fbi. Tom i love the assumption that it goes to the Supreme Court. Vonnie i think the court will have to be the final arbiter. Hyde rings in our next procedures death guest to talk about brexit. Caroline we have been obsessing over it in the United Kingdom for the best part of six months and now eu leaders are meeting in brussels this afternoon. That could determine the united in the eu, ande Ryan Chilcote is joining us. Over sevenat, just hours until the meeting starts. What is the latest . We will be getting the cars rolling in, and a dinner meeting at 8 00 p. M. Ryan the bottom line is Everyone Wants to get this over by friday dinner. Cameron shows up, he is going to meet with the other 27 eu leaders. The hope is that everyone well, after they discuss what written ts today, get a good night what britain wants today, get a good nights sleep, reconvene tomorrow morning, and if cameron gets his wishes he will have a deal by noon. He will fly back to his offices on downing street and an a referendum on june 23. Is that youthe plan have dinner at 8 00 p. M. As well. What is the number one ask that the Prime Minister is asking for . Ryan the number one ask is on migration, tom, and he is seeking to limit some of the benefits that eu migrants in the u. K. Can get. There will be some argument about that, in particular some of the Eastern European countries are can discern britain getst if away with it other countries will try to do the same. Concerned that could give the british banks eight competitive advantage. The bottom line, Everyone Wants to get home on friday night. Everyone wants cameron to start his campaign to keep written in the european britain in the European Union so they can move past this issue and get to other stuff. Caroline Ryan Chilcote live all day. Lets bring in thomas raines. Brian, do you agree with that it is the welfare payments that are a stumbling block, or the fact that we might see concerns starting among other eu members . There are four issues that cameron brought to it is the final two which are the trickiest. The economic governance issues, it seems like most of those have been resolved. We had some talk before h