Have contacted the engineer and he has agreed to be interviewed by the ntsb. We look forward to that opportunity. We will be meeting with him in the next two days. Vonnie the engineers lawyer told abc news that he suffered a concussion in the crash, that he was not under the influence of drugs or alcohol and was not using his cell phone. The u. S. Marines have confirmed the wreckage of the missing helicopter that disappeared earlier this week on an earthquake relief mission. Three bodies were found near the crash, and Officials Say it is unlikely anyone survived or it the chopper carried six marines and two nepalese soldiers. At least one of those marines were shown delivering food and other survived and other supplies to earthquake victims earlier this week. President obama is saying with iran we have got your back. The president promised to defend the gulf nations against external attack and what is called destabilizing behavior from iran. President obama we have to ensure that our partners can deal with iran politically from a position of confidence and strength. Vonnie the president told gulf leaders that any deal with iran will cut off its path with a nuclear weapon. There is no final agreement. In pro football, wonder what the point spread is on this one. Nana phil announced commissioner roger the nfl announced that nfl commissioner Roger Goodell will hear the appeal from tom brady. He was suspended for four games. The Nfl Players Union urged the league to appoint a neutral party for the appeal. And he was at the top of an american artform, the blues. Bb king died late last night at his home in las vegas. He grew up in poverty on a mississippi cotton plantation. He became one of the most influential guitarists. Influencing Jimmy Hendrix influencing jimi hendrix and eric clapton. Bb king dead at 89. Unfortunately, i never got to see him live. Tom i will recommend cadillac records. That movie was made when he was at sony, and it got the spirit of bb king. What a fabulous guitarist. Nothing else to say. We will talk about bb king through bloomberg surveillance peter you play as well. Bloomberg surveillance. You play as well . Brendan i played upright bass. No one could get that sound. Like louis armstrong, you could hear one note and know who was playing. A 30 a. M. New york time. The result of the empire states manufacturing survey. Industrial production numbers are what we get at 9 15. At 10 00 a. M. , Consumer Sentiment from the university of michigan. All morning we will get a gauge of toms sentiment about everything. Tom lets go to equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. We can do this in three seconds on a quiet friday. Crude back under 60 per share. We are wasting precious seconds with michael darda. Why is greece somnolent . Why is greece quiet right now . Brendan because eventually they are going to figure it out. Tom Capacity Utilization back 30 years, it is cyclical. Here is the financial crisis. It is a well contained trend. We have recovered nicely. We are not there yet. Brendan but also you have these trendlines going down. Almost every chart we look at every time period, bigs the question how far back do we go . I am looking right now the feds average 1972 to 2014 is 80. That is about where we are now. When you look at the beautiful 90s the beautiful 1990s, you miss what is going on farther back here. Tom lets move on now. What a treat on a friday. This time is different, and we will lurch forward in some form of weak growth, low inflation euro. 1932 or grammar, 1954 no one analyzes our normal our nominal spirit like michael darda. It is allowed it is a lousy economy. When do we get better nominal gdp . Michael unfortunately, the 4 trend we have been seeing throughout the recovery is about as good as it is going to get. Unless we get a better inflation target from the fed, we will not see better. Tom is 4 nominal animal spirit ok for the politicians . Michael well as noted before it is about as good as it gets, unless we can do some work on the supply side of the economy. The fed has a 2 inflation target. Productivity is trending at 1 or 2 . Unless you allow on the inflationary side for more room it is the supply side of the economy we will have to do more. Brendan on what you said about politicians, this is important when you talk about nominal gdp. If you are urging greater inflation, that makes sense. It is a valid argument, i think. The real problem is that the fed is a little creation. You have to convince a whole generation of politicians raised on being terrified of it that this is a good idea how do you do that . Michael i think you look at these economic cycles historically. The best environment is one where you have stability stability and nominal gdp growth. That is with the fed is trying to do with its dual mandate. They also have a inflation target. The dual mandate is essentially what a nominal gdp what a nominal gdp growth rate target would get you. Brendan two mandates one indicator. Michael it typifies what banks care about. They do not influence the supply. Tom why doesnt the fed pay more attention to michael darda and look at the pulse of gdp . Michael i think they do. The fed has an implied target of around 4 . If you look at what trend productivity is doing versus their inflation target, that is about the number we would get. Tom you do so well on your Research Notes. You link animal spirit directly to the stock market evaluations. What do you see . Michael a big problem with some fed critics that look at lowInterest Rates and say that is easy money, equals bubbles, equals favors. Interest rate levels really only matter relative to some equal level Interest Rate we cannot observe. The natural rate of interest. Tom can we put a dollar in the jar every time michael darda says vixellian . Michael we can see Central Banks when they get off course. It ends up with nominal gdp growth and rising inflation. The fact that we have had modest nominal growth and low inflation through this cycle tells us the low Interest Rate condition is an equilibrium condition. If that were not the case, you would see strong nominal growth and accelerating inflation. We do not see that. Same goes for the Central Bank Balance sheet. Tom is the headline here michael darter michael darda agrees with paul krugman . Michael i think we would be much more in alignment then the fed critics that are saying low money bubble. Brendan the problem is the Central Banks are responding. There is too much money sitting around in the world looking for a return. Michael ben bernanke, his first two or three blog posts took this on. Tom isnt that great . Michael fantastic blogger great teacher. Take a look at the bernanke blog post, which i think is excellent. Tom a massive shout out to David Russell at brookings institution. What a public service. Michael look at these postwar business cycles. The fact is the average nominal gdp growth correlates inversely with p e ratios. What is easy money . The fed Interest Rate is too low relative to an equal or to an equilibrium demand for base that shows up in high nominal growth inflation. Tom the summary is that you are still in the stock market. Michael i am still in the stock market. Tom this is his Public Television commercials we have to go to. Michael darda. Brendan the other great advocate for nominal gdp is scott sumner. They have both been doing work in spreading this idea. Coming up, the dollars weakness. Will overseas investors unveil on corporate debt. This is bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Television streaming on your phone and tablet. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Its get to top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie Islamic State maybe trying to counter a force that its leader was wounded in an strike. The militant group put out an audio recording. He called on sunni muslims to carry out attacks against western nations. There are reports that he was seriously wounded in march. The sec is reviewing what appears to be a fake takeover bid. For avon. Shares spiked but the excitement did not last long. Avon said it had not received an offer, and no one could firm that ptt capital even exists. Regulators will try to find out if it was an attempt to manipulate the market. In course rating in horse racing the belmont stakes. No horse has won the triple crown since 1989. Are you guys in line . Tom i am amazed how they are going from 20 down to eight horses. Brendan is all fired up about italy. We will look at the italian recovery. It is a recovery. That alone is a surprise. Well, it it is as if the new ge danneraher strategy and how it relates to general electric. People will stop by to talk to us about high rise the buildings, and all that. Bonds, bonds, brendan. Brendan we have been looking back and forth at each other did he just say generous electric . I am going to drag us back in line. We spent a year watching the dollar go up. Investors poured cash into what happens to these positions when the dollar weakens . That is what the dollar has been threatening to do this week. Lisa bremmer joins us on the tortoise problem on the a trillion dollar bond market on the 8 trillion bond market. A lot of people are looking of the composition of credit markets right now. Who owns the market that increased by almost 50 in the past seven years. The answer is an increasing volume of buyers from china, europe, and around the world who are coming to the u. S. And saying not only are the yields higher than in the negative yielding universe, the vortex of crazy low yields in europe and japan but the dollar is strengthening. So they put their money into u. S. Assets, u. S. Credit. Tom very quickly, michael darda, you this is your wheelhouse. Michael the move in the last six months of last year was too forceful and too fast. My opinion on the dollar is probably the rally reasserts itself but at a slower pace because we have Major Business cycles that are the verging in the sense that the eurozone and japan are fighting tom to pick up on that conversation, the idea of a continuing dollar, how does a folded to what foreigners will do . Lisa it probably will not shake things too much if the dollar stays where it is. But the question is, is it sticky money . The answer is, maybe not. Traditionally if you look back at periods where the dollar weakened, if it is strengthening in places like europe, investors from europe will not stay here. Brendan you and i have been talking about this for a couple of days talking about how to get this idea on this show. The resistance people have to this idea is that we do not like to think of ourselves as the kind of country will where hot money will flow back out. Lisa but you have to think about that. It is uncomfortable to think about, but we have seen this huge increase in markets where people are saying maybe there is a bubble, maybe there is a problem with this incredible froth that we are seeing, incredible lows, the average high yield bonds lower than where the 30year bond used to trade not so long ago. Brendan there have been other times where there has been a credit and currency play at the same time right . Michael there is a perception that we have never been here before in terms of zero rates on the longterm bonds. From the 1930s up to the 1950s, we had tbills lower than today. Brendan vonnie please jump in lisa. Lisa the 1930s to the 1950s was not a period known for its junkbond market. This is a very different time with a very different profile. Brendan Lisa Abramowicz is reporting. What is holding a back what is holding back the u. S. Consumer . That is a twitter question of the day. Tweet us bsurveillance. [blues music plays] [applause] tom very good. Bb king, one of the moments here. Dead at 89. He had been in ill health recently. The guitar is lucille, which says a lot. Some great perspective on mr. King i love this. This is charles dennis, the new guy who was his side man. Critically in point in with critically important. Bono or jo bonner matzo more Joe Bonamassa are likely to sit in. Tom mr. Dennis was acclaimed with bobby bland and ended up with mr. King. Brendan it is hard to believe that he played and continue to perform as long as he did. In a way, his life can be used to define the 20th century. He was first heard on the king biscuit hour. He moved to memphis. He influenced hollen wolf howling wolf to muddy waters. He was still performing. Tom this is an incredibly important part of american history. We have seen the challenges of america. I cannot convey enough cadillac records i am biased here. Cadillac records, there is a scene i was told about the cotton fields. There is no hope, there is no nothing. Those are the cotton fields that mr. King came from. Brendan we also have to cautiously talk about race. He opened up the blues to a whole generation of guitar players, from jimi hendrix to eric clapton. 40 years later after these performances he gave, all these white guys went to they returned to favor. Eric clapton recorded with bb king. Bono sought legitimacy and touched the hem of bb kings clip. Tom his simplicity is still valuable. What is so great is that a guy like Joe Bonamassa, who is truly virtuosic the classical modes in theory and all of that, none of that meant anything to bb king. He had some prodigious cord chops, as we all know. Brendan the First Time Ever heard him was on a peanuts album that i was given as a christmas present. He played an Important Role in taking that music and bringing it to a different audience. Tom i will put some stuff out on social media as well. Bb king is dead at 89. Good morning, everyone. Tom good morning, everyone. From new york city, bloomberg surveillance peter lets get the top headlines with vonnie quinn. Vonnie investigators want to know why the amtrak train speeded up. The ntsb says it went from 70 miles hour to just over 100 as it entered the curve before jumping the tracks. The ntsb says it may get answers in the next two days. I am pleased to report we have contacted the engineer, and he has agreed to be interviewed by the ntsb. We look forward to that opportunity. We will be meeting with him in the next few days. Vonnie the engineers lawyer says his client suffered a concussion in the crash and that he was not under the influence of drugs or out the hall not using his cell phone read three times now, pimco has for the third time, it is retreating. Pimco says it will focus on enhanced strategies. Greeces outspoken finance minister is at it again. Yanis varoufakis is saying that the head of the ecb, mario draghi, was filled with fear giving greece a break on its debt. He also says he has had second thoughts about the euro. Yanis varoufakis i wish that we had the drachma. Make no mistake this is not the statement i wanted to make. I think that deep down all Member States of the eurozone would agree with that now. Vonnie Yanis Varoufakis has been moved has been removed from day to day handling of the crisis. A california man is suing huber saying that he cash is suing uber. He said that he came up with the idea and the technology. Uber is in a new round of funding that may boost its valuation to 50 billion. The man who filed the lawsuit is a yoga practitioner and filmmaker who was who has previously sued two other tech companies. In the nba playoffs, a Decisive Game seven in the western conference semifinals. The rockets came from 19 points down to stun the los angeles clippers, 119107. Lebron james and the cavaliers have advanced to the houston conference finals. They beat the Chicago Bulls 9473 to win the series 42. Brendan italy is ungovernable. The Italian Economy is unfixable until possibly now. Gdp numbers show the most growth since 2011, the country is on track to exit its modest recession on record. Francine lacqua joins us. She is from london, but also originally from genoa. Was that a happy accident . Francine i am a little bit on the fence. We saw gdp growing. 3 . We had not seen that in years. He is working on labor, he is working on education he is trying to push through. He has pushed through the electoral system reform. If you look at gdp, it has so much to do with the weaker euro. The fashion, the ferraris. The weaker euro helps them out. Brendan i am really curious about the political reforms. Italy famous for decades was ungovernable. What did the Electoral Reform give him . Francine it gives you a little more political stability. Here in the u k we used to talk about having to possibly form a coalition. In italy you have a coalition with 15 to 20 parties, you have the far right, the far left, and the electoral system meant that a lot of these parties would cause chaos, but without advancing the conversation. This reform streamlines it and makes it much more governable because you are a little estimate and in on the crazies of the world. Tom francine, you have special wisdom on this, as brendan alluded to. One of the issues is nominal gdp. What is your basic take on the younger crew in italy . Are they going to get it together and become a more vibrant nation . Is very social paradigm shift coming up . Francine there is a social problem. Unemployment is overall 13 maybe under 30s with youth unemployment. When you have 40 of the youth unemployed, you have a difficult time. It is much more difficult to enter the workforce. In london, you have a lot of top bankers. There has been over the last 10 to 15 years, brain drain. Tom they do not want that. Brendan the ecb looks around the eurozone and sees one fix, which is labor reform. How close is italy to pulling that off . Francine they are starting. They are pulling it off, which means it is much more easy to fire people. When i talked to you, you are american. Italy is so far off the benchmark this is a reform that will take 5, 10, maybe 15 years. In italy, if you get gross misconduct, you still get a paycheck. Tom francine, were you surprised that jim oneill was sitting was selected by mr. Cameron to be part of his government . Francine no, he is a great person for the job because he deeply cares about the u. K. And he will be great for it. Tom ok. Francin