Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150323

Of the man who turned the country around. He was the first elected Prime Minister and served for 31 years. He is grieved beyond words. We wont see another man like him. He was singapore. Olivia this could be another make or break week for the greek Prime Minister. He is meeting with Angela Merkel. Without those measures, european lenders are unlikely to give greece the cash it needs to stay a float. Brendan the price of oil is falling again. Futures fell 1 . West texas intermediate is trading below 46 a gallon. The oil glut will get bigger. In the Health Care Industry Tenet Healthcare is close to buy United Surgical partners. They operate 200 short state surgical facilities. We started with 68 teams and now we are down to sweep the team. A pair of number two seeds lost yesterday. Wichita state beat kansas. Lets all admit it. Michigan state be virginia. Next up for the spartans oklahoma. Those are your top headlines. Tom i love how cbs doesnt it. Its endless basketball. Brendan what else do you want . Tom arizona was gigantic. Brendan i know nothing about college basketball. I had kansas going all the way. Tom why arent they paid . Brendan how many blocks you want to rip up so we can talk about that . Olivia president obama says he doesnt think athletes should be paid. Brendan thats ridiculous. Olivia tom keene is in the top five on the bloomberg bracket. Tom we still need an adjustment and see where we are. Shot of tequila, ill take that when. Enough on basketball. Commodities are the backdrop. Stanley fischer is speaking at the Economic Club of new york today. The economic world will hang on each and every word. The euro is stronger. On to the next screen, its a complacent data check. The vix. The east german from east german yields. These are the leaders of greece and germany this morning. This is singapore. The collapse of the British Empire the separation is over here and then up we go. This is a different vector. It slowed down a little bit. Brendan i see this more simply. All you see is unstoppable growth. That is the Success Story that singapore has provided for the rest of the world. What do other countries see when they look at this . They see what they want to see. Tom whats amazing here, they were more harmed by the latest financial crisis than they were by the asian crisis in the 90s. I did not know that. There is scope and scale on singapore. For an honorable purpose he was the founding father of singapore. He is dead this weekend at 91. He constructed the first city state out of the ashes of the British Empire. Jonathan fendi is the on the qualified. He is the author of the history of modern china. Will china dominate the 21st century . You were to be with us anyway. We are greatly appreciative for your wisdom. Tell us about this relationship between singapore and indonesia. Guest singapore has been such a success. We forget how small it is. Im ever been with the defense minister of singapore. We were talking about the defense budget. He said you wonder why we spend more per capita than any other state in the world on defense. Look out there. Theres malaysia and indonesia. Tom there is a scene in empire of the sun and the japanese are coming down. Translate that fear of another lifetime when he was 20. He was in singapore for the japanese occupation. Translate the tension and the fears the people of singapore have. Guest its the whole of east asia. We underestimate the volatility of east asia. Taiwan may boil up again next year. Youve got a lot of confrontations around the south china sea. What he did brilliantly was ensure unity at home. Everybody spoke english and that was a great binding force. He was pretty authoritarian. There were elections. Brendan lets look at economics. What did he get right for those decades in singapore . Guest running a small open economy. Its very important. I was editing a newspaper in hong kong at the time. The businessman said if china tried to impose law in hong kong , they would move business to singapore. Olivia you knew him personally. What did he say about china . Guest he would say we have to work with china, though china did some fast deals. Weve got to keep on good terms with them, but we need america just as much. To balance china and in us. Tom what can china learn from singapore . Guest i would say the rule of law. Youre not going to have that in china. The chinese love singapore and they go there all the time. They study it. Chinas got 1. 3 billion people. Olivia what are the lessons and governance . Guest to have independent governance, both government and in corporate affairs. China is a different state. It is a common as party state. Tom kathy would is joining us from arc investment management. What is the distinction that you see in Technology Investment right now . We have not had a hysterical ipo at the nasdaq in ages. Guest what we are seeing are for generalpurpose Technology Platforms and normally, only one is evolving and disrupting. The cloud is one of them. Dna sequencing is another. Robotics is another and Energy Storage is another. These are battery technologies. You can make a lot of money. Tom i do see how you make money in these. Guest people dont understand how profaned profound these changes are. They dont have the right dna to take the capital. Tom can ibm get the cloud right . Guest for years, they focused on return on invested capital and did not invest as they should have in the cloud. Now they are trying to catch up. Tom did you read the black books cover to cover . Were they cool . Guest they are still cool. I used to start by looking at the charts and let that lead me. Tom nobody knows that she had a day job. Olivia im pretty sure everybody knew she had a day job. Tom she was a security analyst. Olivia and she was ceo. As we head into the break, our twitter question of the day, can ted cruz when the republican nomination . We are streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg. Com. Good morning and happy monday. Tom get out the champagne. My bracket is just awesome. Brendan ted cruz is throwing his hat in the ring. He was the first candidate to enter the residential race. He made his announcement on twitter. He will launch his campaign a few hours from now at Liberty University. Singapore is mourning the death of its first elected Prime Minister. He was 91 years old. You and Officials Say yemen is at the brink of civil war. Rebels just sees the Third Largest city. They control the capital. All u. S. Personnel are evacuated. Personal information of 100 Service Members was posted on line. U. S. Officials are notifying those named. Chinas biggest Chemical Company is taking a stake in pirelli. They will buy more shares. Taylor swift is trying to stay ahead of internet trolls. She is buying some xrated domain names. I cant believe i just had to say that out loud. Tom my deepest sympathies. Can we shift to the good of the soldout Madison Square garden. Some people actually went. Brendan which of you wants to talk about area on a grand day . Tom lets look forward to the next hours here it olivia coming up we have a new rival to the world bank. Where in the world are people happiest . Were looking forward to going inside mad men. Ted cruz is running for president. He made the announcement last night. Its going to take the new generation of courageous conservatives to make America Great again. I am ready to stand with you. Olivia it looks like a movie trailer. He will make his first stump speech from Liberty University in virginia. He will be the first contender to declare his candidacy. Peter cook joins us from washington dc. He is going first. In the course rates among republicans, this is a race to be number two, isnt it . Guest its a race for the conservative core of the party. He is trying to get out there first to get that National Spotlight before the others jump in. It helped him raise money before others get the opportunity to tap the grassroots. He is trying to run to be the conservative candidate in this field. He will not be the establishment candidate. He is sending a message to some of the other candidates. Olivia he is wildly popular with evangelicals, can he raise money . Guest thats an open question right now. One of the reasons he is at Liberty University is to try to tap into cultural conservatives. He wants to say i and your candidate, lets raise money. He has been successful at that. He has not been able to prove doing it on a National Scale in the way that president obama did. That is one of the big challenges and one of the , if he is as much of a fundraiser. Brendan im going to read you a quote from bob vander plat. He is a prominent conservative and i will. 75 of iowans did not want romney to be the nominee. That says a lot about the republican party. Do you agree with that logic . Guest youve got to remember in places like iowa, ted cruz will be much more of a player than he will be in other parts of the country. Watch him its time he spends and i what first the rest the country. If he does one or two or three he is out of the running. This is an opportunity to play to those christian conservatives in iowa and see if he can sustain something beyond iowa. This is someone who has been underestimated before. He is a threat to republican candidates. Olivia thank you so much. Do stay with us for that speech. This will be starting at 7 40 a. M. Eastern time. This brings us to our twitter question. Can he win the republican nomination . Tweet us. It we are streaming on your tablet, phone, and at bloomberg. Com. Tom good morning everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. We have somebody who has thought about technology for years and this is the morning mustread technology article. The idea of the distribution of income for this Creative Class takes the form of a power law with a small number of winners capturing most of the rewards and a long tail consisting of the rest of the participants. This goes back to Credit Suisse and very few people win in technology. How do you invest . Guest i dont agree with that, first of all. Think about the cell phone and what that has done for emerging markets. That has benefited a long tail of people. They would probably still be trying to do old telephones. Tom from an investment standpoint . Guest from a stock point of view, what we are seeing is those with the vision and the right Business Partners in these new technologies they tend to take the lions share of the market just like microsoft and intel did. Facebook, twitter. Tom ive got to talk to about the new disease, a new Technology Comes out and they extrapolate a value into the future. Interest is the latest. Guest a lot of Asset Managers are getting into the preipo space read its getting very crowded. When stocks go public, they tend to go down. Investors we try to figure out and see were theyre going to bottom out. We are not going to go whole holiday in the beginning. That part of the market is crowded. Brendan you are so good at describing about technology companies. Howd you identify those Larger Industries . Guest we are seeing a lot of convergence in the world. The Industrial Companies that are releasing the big winners are focused on robotics or Energy Storage. These are two generalpurpose Technology Platforms. Youve got focus on Machine Vision systems. Youve got intuitive surgical. Its Industrial Companies that are touching other sectors. Youve got japan and robotics. We think robotics is going to go from 11 billion to 180 billion in the next 10 years. That is a 32 annual growth rate. Olivia they have such wild valuations. One of the most important metrics . Guest we try to size the ultimate value. How big is this opportunity and who is going to get the Unit Economics . We think three planting could be a 500 billion business. Tom lets come back with kathy would. From new york, its bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. 101tom good morning. It futures are negative five. This is bloomberg surveillance. Olivia ted cruz is tweeting his way into the president ial race. Just after midnight, he tweeted that he is running for president and links to his video. He will make a formal announcement at Liberty University. He is the first republican to throw his hat into the race. He is in his first term in the senate and is a favorite of tea party accidents and activists. Singapore was turned into an economic powerhouse. He died at the age of 91. He was the first elected Prime Minister and served for 31 years. His elder son is now the Prime Minister. This week may determine the future of greece in the euro area. The greek Prime Minister will meet with Angela Merkel for the second time in five days. Greece is running out of cash rapidly and they need european leaders to unlock money. They are unlikely to do sort until greece spells out what reforms they will take. Brendan john kerry is saying that negotiators have not reached the finish line on iran. It is achievable. Talks resume this week. In an interview with the huffington post, president obama said there was a major sticking point. What is going to have an impact is iran, are they prepared to show the world that it is not developing a Nuclear Weapon and can we verify that in a consistent way. Brendan iran once sanctions ended immediately and not over a. Of years. The fate of radioshack will be decided today. They obtained up with sprint. Standard general is headed against companies that want to liquidate the company. When the pitfalls of being the pope, pope francis says all he would like to do is go to a pizza without being recognized. He has to be happy with what occurred in naples. He handed the pope a pizza. No word yet on if he actually took a bite. Those are your top headlines. I love that guy. Tom the 70 come out with chili dogs . When the president is jogging down the street, does someone bring it chili dogs . This is a pleasure. They are in search of a new china with chinese characteristics. Its time to reassess where china is. You can do no better. It is a 126 page jewel by jonathan fenby. Just the reading in the back is worth buying the book. You talk about the china dream. That is the struggle. What is the china dream . Guest it was set up by the leader of china. He is probably the most powerful leader in the world. He wants to make china not the dominant power of the world, what a great power. Tom you have an authority with the decades of experience you had. What do we get wrong about china . Guest we dont look enough at the domestic challenges and problems which are enormous. We spend all of our time doing this. You could list a or 10 challenges. Tom they take the old food and they put chemicals on it. Brendan this is what i was wondering. Listening to you lay out the dream there is a lot of daylight between that and what Chinese People want. Guest the Chinese People i said what is your dream . She said for the air to be clean and the trains arrive on time. Olivia she is in the midst of this crackdown on corruption. What should we understand about the domestic opposition in china . Guest thats partly political. He is getting rid of his enemies. And the head of the campaign is not being done by the lower courts or the police. This is being done by a secret communist party committee. They want to make the economy in business more effective by getting rid of corrupt ceos. Olivia they can detain you for six months at a secret location without trial. Guest the head of the Commission Said this will go on forever. The big question is if they get rid of corrupt bosses do you have another lot of corrupt people in . Tom you come to the same conclusion america has things not to fear. Guest america has tremendous strengths. We overestimate chinas appeal. Just take the most simple political soft power element. I have seen a lot of people demonstrating for westernstyle democracy. Ive never seen anybody doing that in china. Brendan i want to talk about the attempt to dominate international institutions. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank says we are wary about accommodating china. European Union Countries have joined this. Did we make a mistake . Guest this was a bank that is set up under chinese influence. The chinese would be very awkward. Olivia why are the british on board . Guest a lot of investment. There are big developments. Olivia what is the tolerance level for dissent . Guest he has made clear that hong kong longs to china and they are allowed an element of autonomy. Olivia after all the protest we saw, those yellow umbrellas out in the streets, will anything change . Guest i doubt it very much. Brendan coming up, we have new data that shows were the happiest and saddest people are in europe. It is not length linked to the strength of the economy. That is todays single best chart. Tom good morning everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to our single best chart. Brendan they may be experiencing negative yields but art europeans satisfied with their own lives . This stat looked at whether or not people are satisfied with their lives. They are reporting this themselves. We see a trend that is familiar. The nordics are happier. Is that socialism . I dont know. The danish are 8. 0. Kathy would, is this a sign to take seriously . Guest this is not what i usually do. I am more focused on a gdp and inflation and Interest Rates. Brendan this is not data that plays into anything you look at . Olivia i feel of correlation with maternity leave. Brendan for me, this map is a different frame of the way we normally talk about europe. Weve been praising the practical austerity of the baltics, that they are unsatisfied people. The danes are always the happiest. Guest there is a more raw city morales tom people dont know they have written on france. Is this real . Even with sarkozy doing ok over the weekend . Guest i followed her father for a long time. She appeals to and unhappiness in france in a way mainstream politicians dont. That is not just hard right people. This is a lot of working people who are unemployed and see her. They are wrong. Brendan is this uniquely french . Guest its happening in italy as well. They are blaming brussels for everything. Tom lets get to the happy top photos. Olivia our first photo is the eiffel tower through a haze of pollution. The city will cut the number of cars on the road in half starting today. Public transportation will be free. This is combating a spike in pollution. You were bureau chief for the economist in paris. Did you ever think the air quality would get to this . Guest no. It has gotten worse. I was in beijing last week. It was amazing the skies were blue. Brendan they referred to this as an aipac blue. This is a specific shade that only exists in china. Guest sometimes it goes disastrously wrong. You get snowstorms. Olivia i find that shocking. I never to photo, take a listen to a desert rain frog giving a warcry. I take full blame for this. I love a weird animal photo. Tom that is actually thomas celebrating his bracket success. Olivia Devon Williams of the West Virginia mat near mountaineers hit a slamdunk against maryland. They will face the undefeated kentucky wildcats. Tom i lost that one. Brendan i had kansas going all the way. Olivia you are still be me in the bracket. Brendan its time to get an update on your celebrity brackets. 36 liters from top corporations are taking part. They have pledged 10,000 apiece. In first place is john donohoe. Bruce richards is third. I do not have 10,000 to spare and i have a 48 point olivia tom keene is in fourth place. Tom im doing ok. There needs to be some adjustments. Brendan coming up, i am a reader of picketing. He is a great writer. Brendan highlights of my interview with mad men creator matt weiner. Tom futures are at negative four. Lets get to the top headlines. Olivia ted cruz is running for president. He is the first major candidate to enter the race. He made his announcement after midnight this morning on twitter. He will latch launches campaign at Liberty University. Singapore is mourning the death of its first elected Prime Minister. He saved served 31 years. He was 91 years old. Fbi profilers have joint investigation of a black man found hanged in mississippi. They are from the Behavioral Analysis unit. The body was tied to a tree. I taught see expected soon. The bodies of seven new york siblings are being sent to israel for burial. They died in a brooklyn house fire. The fire was sparked by a hot plate. An attack on a walmart worker led to a brawl in arizona. Assessment was fatally shot while trying to wrap an officers gun. Seven suspects are in custody. Starbucks is ending its Race Relations Campaign Days after it was lost. Critics said it exploited recent cases a black man killed and confrontations with police. Those are your top headlines. Howard schultz was saying there was no deliberate marketing effort, he wanted to use starbucks footprint to proper larger conversation that should be taking place about race. Brendan i cant understand who thought that was a good idea. It seems like a poorly prepped idea. Olivia if you dont want to have that conversation, you will no longer see it on your coffee cup. Coming up, we look at lessons learned. How to attain market risks are in we have shown in between greece and germany. Brendan Matthew Weiner does not think about any quality the way we do on bloomberg surveillance. He has been the show runner on mad men since 1999. The show begins its last season april 5. He talked about how success in america is a white anglosaxon rosengren it was the ultimate aspiration. It to become a white wasp male. That is the ideal american. That is the currency of power and success in the united states. Brendan you think thats true now . I guarantee it. I see it when i see rap stars dressed in ralph laurent. Its the accrued vermont of the wasp heritage. Whether its works brothers Brooks Brothers or newport. It has the sheen of success and power. I think we have a socially mobile culture still. A team leading wealth can put you at the top of power, no matter what your background is. Brendan that resentment in the show between guys who went to Ivy League Colleges and the ones who did not, you think thats still there in america . Absolutely. Its only turned back in time to the way it was. There is still a secret handshake. Brendan paul sweeney is here with us. He is our director of research and a huge fan of the show. When i listen to matt weiner talked about that world i have a hard time figuring if hes talking about them or it today. Is that why the show resonates . Guest it resonates from the time of the 60s. I think its less relevant today. I took issue with some of his comments in that piece. When you think about the madmen days it was madison avenue and wall street. Somebody could make their mark. This is a Global Economy and a Global Market place and people are creating value and wealth all over the place. You look at silicon valley. Tom i take massive issues with what he said. Peggy olson in season one or season two is in brooklyn and she is in the catholic community. Guest brendan the way the show is constructed, a man who lived in deep poverty makes himself into a lost. Wasp. This is a direct reference to john cheever. When you look at the madison avenue of the 1960s, the uc any wall street and that . Guest i dont. I think we are in the front offices of wall street. There has been a 20 drop in the number of people employed. The pressure is on wall street. The performance pressures are such that they are causing bad behavior. There is a lot of benchmark sensitivity. We are trying to invest in the future. Olivia this sounds like the bonfire of the vanities where everybody wants to be captain of the universe. Rap stars dont dress up like wasps anymore. Brendan jayz wears really nice suits. The madmen fun continues tonight. Tom thank you to all of you. Stirling is 149. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom greece may run out of cash by the end of april. Tsipras meets with merkel in berlin. Stock markets higher, yields to send in germany. A passing of a giant singapore s lee kuan yew. Lessons from a city state. Olivia sterns and brendan greeley. Olivia ted cruz became the first candidate to enter the race for president. Announcing on twitter he is running. He also linked to a video. Ted cruz time for truth time to rise to the challenge as americans have always done. I believe in america i believe we can stand up and restore our promise. Olivia that is not a sony promotion, it is a campaign launch. Cruz will formally launch at Liberty University in lynchburg virginia. He has been a very outspoken in his opposition to obamacare. He wants spoke on the senate floor against it for 24 hours. He turned singapore into one of asia s most prosperous countries. Mourning the death of lee kuan yew. Singapores first elected Prime Minister served for 31 years. His son has been Prime Minister since 1994. We wont see another man like him. To many singaporeans and others too, lee kuan yew was singapore. Olivia critics accused lee of being authoritarian. He imposed fines for misdemeanors and the Death Penalty for serious crimes. A make or break week for greece s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Meeting with Angela Merkel. Merkel has been present tsipras to spell out what economic measures greece will make it without those, lenders are unlikely to give greece cash to stay afloat. Brendan the price of oil falling erasing last week plus gains. West texas intermediate trading under 46 a barrel. The oil glut likely to get bigger. Saudi arabia pumping crude at close to a record pace come almost 10 Million Euros a day. 10 Million Barrels a day. Tenet healthcare close to buying United Surgical partners. United surgical operates 200 facilities. The upsets have not stopped. Down to the sweet 16 hit a pair of number two seed flask, Wichita State beat kansas. Not what your bracket looked like. The first meeting between the schools in 20 years. Michigan state beat virginia. Next up for the spartans oklahoma in the semifinal. Oklahoma still alive, olivia. Olivia still pulling for the sooners. Wichita what an upset. Brendan threepointers. Every member of the starting five went into double digits. Tom you are a font of basketball wisdom. Brendan ever since i read about it. Tom data check. Quiet but deceptive. Yields lower, particularly in germany. The german 10 year coming down to the. 17 level. A positive statistic. Oil churns the euro churns. This hour we are joined by ian bremmer of the Eurasia Group. He will publish a new book inmate inmate in may. Dr. Bremmer on the passing of a giant in singapore. Larry burrows, the great photographer killed and laos has a photograph of lee kuan yew ages ago. Young and vibrant. We forget what he did in 1965 when they split from malaysia. What did he do . Ian this is a country that was in the third world. Below malaysia on every indicator. Today this on on top of the charts globally on most measures. When you talk about anything from education and quality of literacy, integration of women into the workplace. You name it and singapore is on top of the charts. Globalization. Tom think of james c lavells king rat. The airport, they built it out. What was the best practice . Ian the level of consensus achieved by lee kuan yew across the country, the ability to get everyone in the small city straight to city state to pull together for a relationship with the u. S. And china that was equally functional he did not play favorites. I think that allowed a country to grow immensely in terms of wealth and population, a magnet for international capital. Brendan best practices are more important than ideology. There are so many World Leaders who have said i want to be the singapore of x. Pulpit coming paul kagame has said i want rwanda to be the singapore of africa. Ian nazarbayev has said that about kazakhstan. Size matters. Chinese officials that you would make a fine mayor of shanghai. To achieve the level of consensus. Every member of the population will a great. Will agree. They will say this man was the father of our nation. You cannot do that with 100 million people. You cannot be that close to your society. You could do it in the time in bhutan. Its the only thing that is close. Olivia they are terribly happy. What are the lessons for xi jinping . Does he see the Success Story there as an endorsement of authoritarian led state development . Ian singapores more liberal in terms of openness of its financial system, the transparency of their sovereign wealth funds and state owned enterprises. None of that is true in china. Socialism with chinese characteristics and capitalism with chinese characteristics actually is very different. They are going to reform economically but they are not trying to create a one billion person singapore. I do not buy that. Brendan an interesting piece in ft, pointing out that dysfunction in washington is becoming a problem internationally for the u. S. Over the past seven Decades Congress has played a supporting role in u. S. Foreign policy. That era is fading. Foreigners can no longer dismiss u. S. Gridlock as a local as intracity. Ian lee kuan yew has been assertive and till his death, was writing a lot of articles and getting a lot of speeches. He was frail but his mind was not. One of the things he was concerned about in his last few years was u. S. Governance. He was concerned about the role the u. S. Was playing in the rest of the world. The lack of leadership and the impact that would have on asia. He was not surprised by the rise of china but he was concerned singapore might no longer be able to play this balancing role in the region. And was calling on the americans to make a difference so things would be easier. Olivia can i ask you about the horse race in the u. S. . You tweeted out you are not sure america is ready for a canadian president. Ian im not sure. Olivia hes not canadian. Brendan his parents were american citizens. Ian i think we are ready for a woman president. We are ready for an africanamerican president we are not ready for this canadian president. Olivia hes not canadian. [laughter] brendan culturally it is awkward. He sizzles the mandate of the constitution. He did hold onto his canadian passport for a long time. In the last two or three years decided to get rid of it. Ian a lot of texans have a hedge plan. Brendan i and a citizen of the republic of texas. Tom did you say he likes hockey with a certain tone . Ian what would happen to me if i was in hockey . Olivia ted cruzs father was a cuban immigrant, can he win the hispanic vote . Ian he can win texas. Ted does well locally. What ted is going to do, hes a very bright fellow. Ive met him. Having his international views on the stage in the Republican Debate is going to be important. Olivia we are going to continue this conversation with ian bremmer after the break. Our twitter question of the day, can ted cruz win the republican nomination . Tweet us. Tom in this spring. There is no snoutw. The Empire State Building and the freedom tower. A smart morning mustread. Olivia all the way back to saturday. The wall street journals essay. Why islam needs a reformation. She says this process has already begun, ayaan hirsi ali, based in the u. S. And born in somalia. Ian bremmer of Eurasia Group. Wheere where is this moderate muslim voice . Who are the muslims pushing back against extremists and do they have power . Ian if you ask me why the middle east is imploding, the economics are falling apart and the governance is poor. The u. S. Is not playing the role it has historically. Technology is empowering a lot of people that have disaffection. Islam does not work. Of those five things, which is the most likely changeable in the nearterm. The fact that you have an address at all is islam. It is great that ayann wrote this. Few people have written about this. Brendan are you comfortable with a reformation . The reformation was a long and bloody affair. Olivia and assad haas amb assador haas says we are going to another 30 years war. Ian i am not comfortable with that imagery but leaders need to stand up. Im not a fan of the liberalism of sisi but i liked his speech a couple months ago, we have to look at what the clerics say. When they are spewing hatred. Olivia yemen on the headlines again. How worried do we need to be . Ian i think the Islamic State as a state is going to be weaker at the end of 2015. There will not be able to pay for the 30,000 people and the arms. The impact isis will have in creating new cells and attracting people that is going up and yemen is part of that. Tom ian bremmer, in may, his book superpower will be out. Dean curnutt joins us from Macro Risk Advisors. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. Monday morning from new york city. Olivia ted cruz throwing his hat in the president ial ring. The first major candidate to enter the race for 1600 pennsylvania avenue. Cruz made his announcement on twitter. He will launch his campaign at Liberty University in virginia. Singapore morning the death of its first elected Prime Minister. Lee kuan yew served 31 years and turned the state into one of asias most prosperous countries. He was 91 years old. A you and officials said a u. N. Official says yemen is on the brink of civil war. Shiite rebels seized the thirdlargest city, they already control the capital. All u. S. Military personnel are evacuated. The rush is on to visit cuba. A sense of urgency before mcdonalds invades havana. The company saw an increase in january. 600,000 u. S. Travelers estimated to visit cuba every year. Cuban officials estimate that would arise to 1. 5 million if all restrictions were removed. Regulators have questions for nissan. The automaker recalled almost one million cars last year due to faulty air backs. The government wants to know if bags were fixed. Some drivers are complaining the flaw persists after multiple repairs. Nissan says they have addressed the defect. Taylor swift trying to stay ahead of internet trolls, buying xrated domain names including taylorswift. Porn. Public figures are getting a chance to register domain names before they become public. Those are your top headlines. Coming up on bloomberg surveillance, singapore loses a giant. Lessons from lee kuan yew. At 7 35, germany and greece heading for a showdown, merkel meets with tsipras. We profile Vladimir Putin with ian bremmer. Tom the vix closing friday at 13. 02. This is a miracle. Amid centralbank generations, gyrations, negative Interest Rates and villanova losing. The stock market moves up. To steal a phrase from chairman greenspan, it is quiescent. Ian bremmer looks at the correlation of the world. Foreignexchange movement, why is the stock market signaling a lack of volatility . Ian in the u. S. Theres a stability coming from capitalist tom bloodmoney. Blunt money. Ian coming out of europe. Investors are forced to have risk. They are fearful of underperformance. Tom how does a math guy like you quantified the walls of worry . Ian there are a bunch of indicators. The vix at 13 is quiet. It has been lower but nowhere near the danger zone. Other measures of market risk. C a couple examples,ds cds on brazil is the widest we have seen in years. That is a country at the epicenter of emerging market risk. Put options on the british pound. Tom brendel, that was a freudian slip of tongue. He did not say country, he said currency. Brendan the country is a thing that supports the currency. Something left out from the terminal this morning. We reported that 1. 44 trillion euros in Government Debt is negative yield right now. Is that driving this . Paul that speaks to this portions distortions imposed by singlee brendan qc Central Banks driving the risk. A piece from the ft saying Central Banks are following trends and not driving them. There is the portfolio balance theory yellen subscribes to a, draghi made mention of it. Saying that money has got to jump out of assets no longer a tractive and into things like stocks. Olivia arent we supposed to be in a new normal of higher volatility . Were in an era of unprecedented and Forward Guidance. Were going to move into higher rates, shouldnt that trigger an increase in volatility . Dean if you study what janet yellen is doing, shes trying to take back the option now they she has given the market to be a Forward Guidance has been powerful. As she takes it back to give the fed flexibility tom lets review. The vix would show a chart of a trend over the last number of months, getting us under 14. Is that the market speaking to dr. Yellen and vice chair fisher speaking in new york this afternoon. Or is that them adjusting and changing the markets . Dean the vix is in a consolidation phase. It is not going back to town as it was last summer. We see upside in the vix. As we look at other measures of risk across the globe certainly in currencies we think the fed and the Central Banks sponsor currency volatility. Tom but not the stock market. Dean ultimately we see it hitting the stock market. Tom correction or bear market . Dean their markets are tough to come by we see choppy or market had. Tom dean curnutt with Macro Risk Advisors on the vix. Olivia greece and germany go headtohead. Angela and alexis. Can the two countries find Common Ground . We ask our guest. This is bloomberg surveillance, streaming on your tablet, phone and bloomberg. Com. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. There is the nations capitoal. We look a t the capitol, the dome getting retrofitted. A look 35 years at singapore. Log chargt, slope matters. Growth, growth a couple pullbacks. The triumph of lee kuan yew, deat at dead at 91. The new asia. Christine lagarde is miffed about a new organization. Ian shes worried the chinese are driving architecture that will undermine u. S. Led global institutions like the imf. The asian and the structured Investment Bank. Tom what is that . Ian created by china to throw billions of dollars at countries to build infrastructure which is underdeveloped. It will help chinese in their backyard. Americans worked hard to convince all sorts of countries like south korea, australia and allies not to join. They think it will have less conditionality towards liberal democracy than american institutions. They are right, of course. A week ago, the brits said they would ignore us and they are becoming a founding member. The europeans signed on, the asians are going to sign on. It is an enormous loss. In terms of grand strategy in a part of the world lee kuan yew if he were alive today, this would have been the single thing he was most concerned about. Anywhere in the world. Brendan did we make a mistake. Ian absolutely. The important thing is do not draw a red lines if you cannot uphold them or they are not going to go your way. This has happened on things like syria and ukraine and on the Asian Infrastructure bank. Now that china is large enough to set this up, we should become observers so we can influence the background. Olivia the british are doing this because they want to be a yuan outpost. Ian why say no . They would rather be sitting around a table that matters than not. Tom lets get to our top headlines. Heres Olivia Sterns. Olivia ted cruz tweeted his way into the 2016 president ial race. Republican senator from texas tweeted he is running for president. The tweet included a link to this video. Ted cruz a time for truth. A time to rise to the challenge as americans have always done. I believe in america and i believe we can restore our promise. Olivia that is not a movie trailer, that is the campaign announcement. The formal announcement will come later at Liberty University in virginia. Cruz is the first republican to formally declare for the race. Hes a favorite of tea party activists. Hes been a harsh critic of obamacare. This week may determine the future of greece in the euro area. Prime minister Alexis Tsipras meets with Angela Merkel for the second time in five days. Greece is running out of cash and tsipras needs european leaders to unlock money from a bailout fund. Theyre unlikely to do so until tsipras spells out what Economic Reforms greece is willing to make. Brendan talks resuming on a nuclear deal with iran. John kerry say negotiators have not reached the finish line. But he says a deal is achievable. In an interview with the huffington post, president obama said there was a major sticking point. President obama it is going to have an impact on whether we get a deal done. Is iran prepared to prove to the world that its not developing a Nuclear Weapon . Can we verify that in a consistent way . Brendan part of any deal, iran wants the u. S. And europe to end sanctions immediately rather than over eight period of years. The u. S. Balking at that. Bankruptcy options might decide the fate of radioshack. Standard general has teamed up and is proposing saving 700 stores. Standard general is pitted against companies that want to liquidate the chains remaining assets. A bankruptcy judge will make the decision to one of the pitfalls of being the pope. Pope francis that he would like to go to a pizzeria without being recognized. Since that is not going to happen, francis has to be happy with what occurred in naples. A pizza owner ran to the motorcade and handed the pope a pizza. It had the words the pope spilled out. No word on whether the pope took a bite. Theres a your top headlines. Ian popearoni. Tom i was going there. Were on the same way. Lets do a data check. 10 year yield 1. 92 . Nymex crude, 45. 88 per barrel. Olivia this is bloomberg surveillance, here with tom keene and brendan greeley. Brendan another meeting, another week begins in greeces debt crisis. Prime minister Alexis Tsipras will be received in berlin. Hans nichols is in berlin. Hans, can it be a crisis if it never ends . What are the stakes . Hans the stakes are even higher. The newspaper, they keep outdoing themselves. This is the front page. Welcome to germany to mr. Tsipras. They flipped it over and they did it in greek. It gets at a frustration. A populist campaign some of the press is whipping up against greece. As the talks dragged on, both populations of both countries are diverging. That could make it more challenging for politicians. Brendan Angela Merkel is very popular, her Approval Ratings are in the 70 . Does she have any leeway to drag her country if she makes concessions . Hans potentially sound. There is an interview this morning from the cdu, the top parliamentarian and her party. Hes a little bit, not wanting to get her so much legroom to maneuver. Merkel firmly is in control of her party. You look at the number of defections on the last vote when they voted to extend it for two or three months, it was 31 against an 520 for. Merkel seems to have some both her party and her coalition behind her. Brendan what is the actual what is the content of the disagreement . What is the measure greece needs to take that it will not take . Hans they need to implement reform measures they agree to february 20. Very little action has been taken. What both sides are saying today is a get to know you meeting. They will not be going line by line. Mr. Tsipras has been talking about how it is nice to have a conversation without negotiations. It is not as if there is direct pressure on todays meeting. Clearly we all know what is on the agenda. They may be talking about macro ways to get there instead of getting content and in our the technocrats being allowed in athens, are they being given access . It is these kinds of issues that hampered and poisoned some of the previous meetings. Brendan hans nichols in berlin. The crisis that never ends. Always good to see what the negotiations will fail to be concluded. Do you see an end . Ian no time soon. As it goes a long we have the germans becoming increasingly complacent and supportive of a greek exit. It makes it harder on merkel to make real concessions. At the end of the day there has to be some level of compromise with the greeks so syriza will be able to bring a deal home. The greeks will have to go further. The sides are far apart. We cannot lionize the greeks, we have to wait until the last moment. Olivia do we have a handle on how much cash greece has . Ian i do not. You talk to the people who are the market watchers, they believe the likelihood of capital being forced upon greece is higher than the general person on the street. Brendan hard to get past the weighty well was poisoned when greece brought up to thes word product germanys brought up germanys war debt. Ian the dynamic between the germans and the greeks. The lazy greeks, it turns out they are the most productive when they had jobs. The germans are seen as being the most responsible and yet they have no willingness to recognize that not every country can around the kind of surplus olivia what about political contagions is podemos the next syriza . Ian podemos may be but spain is not the next greece. Spain does not have the economic degradation. Olivia they are further along with the reforms. Ian nothing is like greece. One of the reasons germans think the greeks should go. Olivia back to u. S. Politics. Can w ted cruz win the nomination . Olivia good morning. Live pictures. From new york city. Monday morning. It is spring even though it is about 30 degrees here. This is bloomberg surveillance, o i am Olivia Sterns p on in the loop, the founder of usa network will be joining betty liu. You are talking the strength of the u. S. Dollar. Betty kay popovic has two passions. A lot of retailers reporting. Being hit by the u. S. Dollar, the greenback. They are still well above 50 . A have seen the crash of the greenback. That is going to be a theme when we get our earnings in the next few weeks, how much Companies Like retailers have been hit by the u. S. Dollar. Olivia for retailers it is also about tourists. Betty american tourists are doing great. We are getting a 30 or 40 discount. This coming here and buying luxury goods are having a harder time. On the sports side, are you a c ord cheater . Olivia im a cord alacarter. Betty im getting to that point, cord cutting. 20 of those who have gotten regular Television Programming actually steal other peoples passwords. Steal it might be a strong word, they borrow. Netflix, hulu, sling tv are seeing up to 20 of their business some of the users are using shared passwords. This is an issue we will tackle with kay, founder of usa networks. A big sports fan. Online streaming is going to be the next arena. Olivia everybody is trying to figure out how they can stream the ncaa march madness. You can stream until the final four . Betty cbs, over the air, you can stream cbs for free. Including the championship game. If you want the final four you have got to own a cable box because those are on tbs or turner. If you are with Charlie Ergen and you own sling tv you can get that for 20 a month. It just goes to show that it is extremely confusing these days to figure out how you stream online. That is something Cable Operators have to figure out. Olivia what does this indicate about the future of streaming . Betty sports might be the last frontier and the most lucrative. Olivia sports are the one holdup, the reason cord shavers are buying bundles. Everybody wants espn. Looking for to your interview with Kay Koplovitz on in the loop. Catch that interview at 8 00 a. M. This is bloomberg surveillance, tom brendan and i will be right back. Tom oil, 46. 12. I guess the crisis is over. Another crisis. Heres brendan greeley. Brendan ted cruz is running for president. The texas republican senator is the first major candidate to enter the race. Cruz made his announcement on twitter p he will launch his campaign a few hours from now at Liberty University in virginia. Singapore mourning the death of its first elected Prime Minister, lee kuan yew. He turned the state into one of asias most prosperous countries. He was 91 years old. Fbi profile is during the investigation of a black man found hanged in mississippi. The agents are from the Behavioral Analysis unit at the body was found tied to a tree with a bedsheet. Autopsy results are expected soon. The hotties of seven new york city siblings are being sent to israel for burial. The bodies of seven new york city siblings are being sent to israel for burial. The fire was sparked by a hot plate left on for sabbath. Refusing to issue a license bearing the confederate battle flag. Eight states have issued similar plates. Texas says the plates would offend those who viewed the symbol as repressive. Starbucks is no longer writing race together on coffee cups. Critics said it exploited cases of black men killed by police. The company says the cups were a catalyst for conversation. Olivia coming up at 8 00 a. M. We talk about ted cruzs decision to run for president. 8 10, the winners and losers of the west coast port strike. 8 20, how the strong dollar is affecting consumers. Russia continues to pour heavy weapons into ukraine, according to natos general breedlove. He said, we see disturbing elements of air defense, command and control resupply, and equipment coming across a porous border. Ian bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and with as onset. Does anybody believe that minsk 2. 0 is going to hold . Ian about as well as minsk 1. 0. Breedlove has been he has made statements about how many Russian Troops and tanks are following on ukrainian comments. It is not as if we do not think the russians are there. French and German Military intelligence does not comport with those numbers. You cannot give the russians any space between where the americans and the europeans are. That means you have to be incredibly focused when you are making these comments. It cannot be just kiev says this. Olivia german intelligence is more conservative. Ian they are looking for reasons to back off in terms of the sanctions, which are hurting their economies. Brendan how seriously should we be taking these pinpricks from Vladimir Putin in other parts of europe . Flights and truth exercises. Troop exercises. Ian seriously. Americans would not respond to an invasion in the baltics. They would not respond to the toiling frog you turn the water hire a he never jumps out. A few months ago, the russians went across the Estonian Border and grabbed a border guard who is now in jail in moscow. Was that an invasion . No, but it was a breach of sovereignty. Brendan what is the goal of the little operations . Ian to see how much flexibility and to show power. To show the americans putin is not going to sit there in response to a policy he sees as oriented towards regime change and undermining his power. He as an individual is an incredibly powerful person and you cannot expect he is simply not going to punish the americans for their perceived olivia is the relationship between the u. S. And putin irrevocably broken . Ian yes. There has been hedging in this geopolitical environment the gzero. Few countries have changed their orientation. Russia is the one that counts. It has been bouncing between east and west. The u. S. Relationship is over. Their orientation as a junior partner towards the chinese is becoming more significant. That long term, it really does change the world order. Tom you are the most quoted person on the disappearance of mr. Putin. In your book gzero, it changed the dialogue appear to what does the next g20 meeting look like . I cannot frame it. I cannot figure out ian the next Security Council meeting. Global leadership does not work anymore. It is preshattered. One of the reasons why i was upbeat by obamas last meeting with xi jinping was because they started talking about the americans and the chinese on climate. Not that it is a lot but it is more than what you can do globally. The transpacific partnership, more than you could do globally with the doha round of the g20 does not really exist other than a symbolic backdrop for leaders that do not agree on anything to get together. Olivia if was interested in saber rattling, putin would have cut off the gas to europe . Ian no his view in trying to cleave the europeans all from americans is useful. It has not, if you have not been for Malaysia Airlines flight, the germans would have left the americans. Mr. Tsipras recognized the annexation of crimea. I do not think greece will leave the years on, if syriza stays in power they could leave nato. Brendan does Vladimir Putin have a definition of success or is he having fun . Ian hes really pissed off, pardon my french. He made some solid bets that going into ukraine was going to be popular. He did not bet oil prices were going to go down over 50 . That has hurt him. He did not that he was going to have nemtsov gunned down outside the kremlin. I think that is the reason he was gone for 11 days. Not because he ordered nemtsovs killing. If you are putin, the only thing you have going for you is people recognize you are calling the shots. If people do not, you have to do something internally. Tom oil with a little rebound. I cannot convey in the major message, a sell side that is still exceptionally cautious on oil. All of it is from oil dynamics, far less dollar dynamics. Radar up on oil. Brendan greece i have to temper my own ennui. I cant stand continuing to report on it but it is important right now. W come what comes out of the meeting today will be important. Olivia ted cruz announcing he will run for the republican ticket. The freshman senator from texas will be speaking at 10 00 a. M. This morning. Full coverage on bloomberg. Com with Mark Halperin and john heilemann. Hes the first to enter the race. This is a bid to be who will be number two behind jed bush. Tom is this a vanity bid . Whats his support . Olivia with the evangelicals andd the tea party. Tom hes running for president with 94 of america not supporting him . Brendan i think it is a vanity bid. He believes he can win this. Ian the circus is beginning. We will have a dozen plus candidates. Most of them have no chance of getting a nomination. And chances of improving their speaking fees and selling books and lining up for a cabinet position. Thank god ted cruz wants to get that started olivia will there be a point when he gets paid to read green eggs and ham . Our twitter question, no, u. S. Not ready for another firstterm senator as president. He will have to win iowa. Hes being seen as a symbol. Third answer no, ted cruz will entertain, no experience. Tom ian bremmer, thank you so much. Ian great to be with you. Tom looking forward to your book, have you sold the movie rights . Leonardo dicaprio as ian bremmer. We continue across bloomberg radio. Stay with us. Futures flat. Its bloomberg surveillance, good morning. Betty a very good morning. It is monday, march 23. You are in the loop. The founder of his usa network is also on the board. Why she is excited about getting her march madness online. Plus, he left wall street. A fund manager making a billiondollar bet but first heres a look at the top story this morning. Senator ted cruz a few hours from now will become the first major candidate in a 2015 president ial race or he lost his campaign at a Christian College in virginia 30 revealed his plans on twitter. It will take a new generation of courageous conservatives to help make America Great again. Im ready to stand with you. To lead the fight