Vladimir putin had his first state to state visit since the beginning of the ukraine conflict. Matteo renzi met with putin. Putin said the two agreed on ukraine. We were of one mind that the conflicting parties must strictly comply with the agreements reached in minsk on the 12th of february. I am certain that this opens the possibility for a comprehensive settlement and from watching a direct dialogue between kiev donetsk, and luhansk. Olivia the ceasefire agreement has been holding in recent days. The big banks all past their stress tests. All 31 banks have enough capital to survive a financial crisis. It is the First Time Since the stress tests were launched in 2009 that every firm has passed. Goldman sachs barely made the cut. Goldman will not be a low to match the dividends and share buybacks it rewarded investors with last year. A fraud involving apple pay. Criminals have been typing stolen credit card numbers into apple pay and trying to make purchases. Banks require users to know call them before they activate credit cards. Both runways at Laguardia Airport are open this morning after the delta airliner skidded off the runway after landing in a snowstorm. One passenger said it was like fishtailing in a car, a much larger car. A federal safety team is investigating. This particular runway had been plowed shortly before the incident. Pilots on other planes reported good braking action. Olivia actor Harrison Ford is recovering after crash landing his own plane on a golf course near santa monica, california. He told airtraffic controllers he lost the engine during the flight. His injuries are not lifethreatening. People took advantage of the snowstorm to protest a ban of sliding on capitol hill. Senate democratic leader harry reid has been asked that he left that ban. Tom it is a great hill. I would be out there in a heartbeat. Olivia it is almost cruel not to let the kids slide. Flying drones, i understand, but sledding. Tom lets look at equities, bonds, currency, commodities. The jobs report will come dribbling out after 8 30. Futures are flat. The euro is breathtaking. We could stop and do two hours right now on it. We are truly on a parity watch. Moving on to the next screen. Buoyant equity markets. Gold is back under 1200. The brazilian riel breaking through. Turkish lira. Olivia record lows in emergency currencies. What is on the screen is the Collateral Damage, which is a stronger dollar. Tom lets go to the bloomberg terminal. Here we go back. This is where you decide if you should look at the west wing or the east wing. [laughter] what we need is a strong dollar. America believes in a strong dollar policy. Weakness. We are getting going there right now. There it is. Olivia and there it is on all the big s p 500 companies. Tom we will talk to a wonderful set of guests for four hours this morning. It is jobs day. Dribbling and with weatherrelated issues in washington. Peter cook is that our news bureau in washington. Give us the update on what we are going to observe at 8 30. Peter what is going to happen this is the first time that this has happened in my covering the jobs report but because the federal government is delayed for two hours this morning, that means that folks at the Labor Department who normally would be in the office and giving this report to those of us who are reporters covering it at 8 00 in a closed, locked room and then we release that information at eight 30 they are going to post this information live online at 8 30 to the website and that is when we will get this information. It may not be precisely at 8 30 and it may dribble out over time, but the goal is to post it as close to them as possible and we will be looking at it just like everybody else. Olivia fortunately, you did make it into the office through the snow. Walk us through the forecast. Peter the forecast for the jobs report and i can tell you it is 12 degrees outside i used to do the weather, too. We will limited to jobs right now. [laughter] 235 thousand jobs added last month, the Unemployment Rate ticking down solid numbers to be sure. It has been a strong three months. The weather is a factor that needs to be considered this time around, given what has happened in the northeast. The thing that everyone is going to be looking at average hourly earnings. Thats all such a big pop last month. Theyre waiting to see whether there is some indication that there is real traction there. Tom thank you so much. Alan krueger will join us later. Ubs has won countless Economic Forecasting awards, backed by a resilient optimism on the economic experience. Why are so Many Americans miserable . Lets get right to the theory. These are great reports. Things are great, but a hunk of america is left out of this joy. Why is that . Americans of not embraced the fact that the labor market has gone gotten much better. No one is willing to quit their job. You are last in, first out. People are saying, im not willing to walk away from the job i just got to get the better job. The quitting is not happening at the pace you would like. We are seeing a slight take up in claims. Tick up in claims. That is a sign of a healthier labor market. Tom we have come down and we are well under 6 and we are going to some nirvana number. Where is the ubs calculation of what normal unemployment is . Drew right now it is about 6 . Tom you are stunningly outliers. Drew we are talking about wage growth because it is clearly above 5 . It does not look like there is a huge amount of pressure, but if you were to chart wages versus the number of job openings to unemployment, what you would find is that we are at a point where it is close to vertical. Tom this is critical. This jobs report is critical for janet yellen. Olivia you are saying we are already at nehru. How does janet yellen engage . Drew she probably thinks we are approaching it quickly. The comments from the president of the San Francisco fed were very telling. He is saying, we should think about rate hikes in june. Tom did you get the memo that we dont do newtonian mechanics in march . Row equals mv. Olivia lets please not. Why is it so stagnant . Drew in part because no one is willing to quit. You dont pay up employees because you like them. Olivia his unwillingness to quit a problem of perception or attitude or because there really is a twotiered American Economy . Drew if there a twotiered American Economy it is kind of hard to see who is winning. I dont believe in the twotiered labor market in the same way i dont believe that the u. S. Middle class is dying. We just dont address adjust the metrics we use. Tom does the dollar matter or does it begin to matter as we go into 2015 . Drew it does not matter as much as people think a to the fed it does not matter at all. Tom what is that . Drew look at the transcripts from 1998. Nothing mattered to them until it began to affect u. S. Market functioning. I have not seen a move yet that would tell me that u. S. Market functioning is affected. Tom a great first briefing from drew matus. Olivia wages do matter. That brings us to our twitter question of the day. Do you think we should raise the minimum wage in the u. S. . This is bloomberg surveillance. Happy friday. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Olivia sterns is with me on this jobs day. Olivia the report may be as much about the weather as it is about jobs. Bad weather in washington may delay the release of the report. Vladimir putin had his first state to state visit by european leader since the ukraine conflict. He met with the italian Prime Minister and they agreed to set up a 1 billion investment fund. Leaders of the Palestinian Liberation Organization want to suspend its security deal with israel. Plo leaders say it is an occupying power, so they should pay to keep peace in the territory. Amazon is trying to reach more shoppers in china. They are opening a store on a site owned by alibaba. Google is hoping california drivers shop for car insurance. The new feature compares quotes from up to 14 participating carriers. Policies can then be bought online through agents with google receiving a cut from the insurance sale. Ancient mars held more water. Much of the red planets Northern Hemisphere was wet for millions of years. It offers fresh evidence that mars might have sustained life. Tom very good. The mars thing is amazing. The unmanned spacecraft effort of the last couple years. We are going to land on some planet this year. Olivia courtesy of elon musk. New currency, new casualties in the currency war. New record lows in the past few weeks. The euro has dropped to 1. 09 against the dollar for the first time in over 11 years. Sebastian, rbs says the euro could hit parity as soon as next month. Sebastian we are looking for a 1. 05 at the tip end of this process. There is a lot of deleveraging which is happening right now. The market is looking for three targets. The third target is 1. 05. It is very rare that the market gets what it wants. Tom lets put this into historical perspective. Bring up these three factoids on the strong dollar. The Dollar Strengthened 16 off the bottom. The move is 43 of the rubin dollar move. How big is big in your world . How big is dollar dynamics . Sebastian it is big because we are looking at low volatility for a long amount of time. From a historical point of view, it is not a big deal. Tom so what matters . Sebastian you have to put it in context. There was a rapid emergence of emerging markets. As they did, the overshot the markets. Tom Financial Markets are flat on their back. Olivia a very interesting oped from Richard Sharma as always. Is this about the innate strength of the u. S. Economy or weakness abroad . Sebastian it is linked to the rise of the dollar and exposing a lot of the weaknesses in emerging markets. It is also because the ecb and the boj have been aggressive to weaken currencies. Tom we have an arch u. S. Economist in drew matus and we have a Foreign Exchange guy. Do you drive a ferrari . Drew matus how does dollar dynamics change our imports . Is olivia going to get the bmw she has always wanted . Drew if you want to look for an effect inside the u. S. , it is consumer preferences. People are making more money and they are going to spend the money on imports. Exports tend to be much less elastic. If the price changes around tom imports do tend to change. Drew yes. Tom i want to drag you into it. This janet yellen care about this discussion . Sebastian to some extent. They are very happy in the u. S. Emerging markets are going to repack themselves and the u. S. Is going to have easy financing. For the u. S. , it doesnt matter. It means there is a bit of a deflationary shock which is going to percolate to the u. S. It is a strong consumer at low inflation, which is an odd situation. Tom the deflationary impulse is not something that happens by june or september. Drew absolutely. And i would disagree. I would say there is little evidence to suggest that we import deflation outside of things like apparel, which is a miniscule part. Tom are we allowed to have guests that disagree on friday . [laughter] drew we are disagreeing with smiles on our faces. Olivia we have had 17 Central Banks worldwide cut rates this year and it is march 6. When does this end . Sebastian i think we are getting closer. Fx will overshoot interest rates. Emerging markets, we are still uncovering damages places that have not reacted completely. Drew if the rize war we are all allies. If the u. S. Hikes rates and the ecb is easing, we take pressure off of the other Central Banks. Olivia but American Companies take the hit with the stronger dollar. Sebastian galy thank you for joining us. Tom we have another conversation coming up. Alan krueger will join us in our next hour. We will focus much more on the debate on your wage. It is jobs day. Stay with us. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Olivia sterns has a big morning mustread. Olivia the elephants are out at the ringling brothers barnum and bailey circus. The cruelest show on earth. There was a year investigation back in 2011. Many of these elephants are actually physically lame because they spend so much time being forced to balance. Tom i would like to hear the debate. Olivia it does feel like it is fallout from blackfish. They are trying to get ahead of this. Tom you are saying ringling brothers is doing this because they see what is coming . Olivia yes. Kids go to the circus and they worry about the animals. You said you were worried about the tigers. Elephants are smart, social animals and they should not be in cages all day long. Tom ok. Olivia i think it is good news. No more animals, no more elephants millions of americans have been forced to skip school or work. We will discuss how the recent weather will affect the jobs report. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Alan krueger in our next hour. Olivia the economy is coming on the best threemonth hiring spree in 17 years and there may have been more of the same in february. The jobs report comes out in two hours from now. Economists say that employers added to lunch at 35,000 jobs last month 235000 jobs last month. T bank met with a european leader in a state to state visit for the First Time Since the ukraine crisis. Italy called russia a privileged partner. They said the tubing agree on ukraine. We were of my mind one mind that the parties must agree with the agreements in minsk. Olivia putin was talking about the latest ceasefire agreement, which has been holding in recent days. Another development in the story of Hillary Clinton and her personal email account. The Washington Post said the state department is reviewing the emails to see of clinton violated policies covering sensitive information. They are looking at tens of thousands of her emails to see if they can be released to the public. Last year, the department sent a letter to representatives of the former secretaries of state requesting that they submit any records in their possession for proper preservation. In response secretary clinton provided her emails. Olivia she submitted 55,000 pages of emails to the state department already. Officials are letting a train that derailed unexploded burn itself out. People living nearby were evacuated. No injuries were reported. There is one catch to the plan to launch a wireless service. It will not even work on other phones that use google plus android operating system. It will allow google to show off its technology. A granola maker named one of its cereals haulin oats. Tom they are killing me. Daryl go get them. Olivia i cant go for that. They have been accused of violating trademark protections. The owner of early responded with a hall and oates song of her own. Tom we are going to talk about this later. The copyright usage and all that. Olivia i like it. Tom the weather. There was a time when winter was winter and economists adjusted for snow by taking three days o ff. No more. This year has brought an uncommon february. Drew matus, the weather. Drew we came down a little bit because of the weather, but last winter was bad, too. The other part of it is simply that a lot of the United States did not have bad weather. This is one of those cases where everybody is sitting in new york thinking about how bad things are, but you are not on the california coast. Tom natural gas used to correlate out of what are the temperature in the new york subway was. This is optimism when we did not have it. This is the unemployment report. It was an ugly 10 12 . I did not realize how this all in Unemployment Rate has really come down quite well. Drew it has come down quite well. This is my least favorite indicator on the planet, to be honest with you. Tom thank you. That is why i put it up there. [laughter] drew america has a strong bias to tsonga stored the question of would you take a job if you are offered one. America has a strong bias toward work. Olivia that is the premise of the entire season three of house of cards. Drew i watched the bbc version. Tom this goes to slack. Slack is so 2014. Olivia you dont like that metric . Black rock is looking at productivity that has been a little soggy. Drew he has a great point. Smart guy. Here is what i think about. Some of the gdp b numbers dont make a lot of sense. We are forced to balance between what we know and what we think we know. The employment numbers are so much easier to calculate than the gdp numbers that i have to put my money on the fact that we would not be creating jobs if firms were not making money and selling things. I think gdp numbers are probably a little off and are understating the activity. We could do a special on why gdp is wrong and why we are not capturing it. Olivia please dont get him excited. Tom yes drew i think you will see productivity numbers get reese revise tire. Olivia i went to a lunch yesterday with a couple of investors at the 21 club. Tom stop, stop, stop. We were done at fresh spending eight dollars on an avocado sandwich and you were at 21 . Olivia i was at 21 for work purposes. Drew did you bring your jacket . You dont want to have to borrow. Olivia the point is, these guys are excited. Tom bring this in as a leading indicator. Drew this is consistent with the ubs view. As people sniff out rate hikes you will see an acceleration in capex. Tom we seek capex and better industrial america. Where does the rate get to be too low . Drew once you get below 5 , you tend to get to that point. The fed is well behind. They have already waited two years too long. They have already built the lag in. Tom let me translate that for you. Drew just took a shot at alan zentner. [laughter] olivia congratulations. It is International Womens day on sunday. That gives us a reason to talk about how far women have come in corporate america. According to the single best chart, we still have a long way to go. This is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom lets get to our single best chart. Olivia we are focusing on women head of International Womens day. We are taking a look at the number of women who run big companies. There are more men named john who run s p 1500 compani