Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150213 :

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150213

We have to try to take the Peace Process further. Youukraines president made clear this is the most important thing for his country but we are very aware it will take more effort. Therefore we are open to all possible reactions. If it goes well, we will happily go forward with this process but if there are difficulties we are not ruling out additional sanctions. Brendan meanwhile more fierce fighting between separatists in ukraine. Staying in europe, greek negotiators in the countrys euro area are meeting in brussels today. The Prime Minister of Alexis Tsipras met with others. Tom greeces goal remains a sixmonth bridge agreement that could lead to a new deal with euroarea authorities. A current aid program x wires this month. There are signs of life in the euro area economy this morning. New reports show momentum picked up at the end of last year as germany reasserted self as a driver of growth. It serves offset weakness in greece and italy. Interesting numbers today. France with projection, euroarea gp increase almost. 3 in the Fourth Quarter. A real jumble. The German Economy expanded. 7 . That is more than twice what was forecast to stop thanks, weak euro. To washington, the president visits Silicon Valley today. On the agenda, finding better ways to share information to enhance the nations Cyber Security. It comes amid unprecedented data breaches and cyberattacks. Not attending todays summit is a list of big shots facebooks Mark Zuckerberg, yahoo s marissa mayer, googles eric page and eric schmitt. They were all invited, they were busy sipping espresso or Something Else. Out of egypt this morning, Al Jazeera Television says a second journalist who was imprisoned has been set free. The release of Baher Mohamed calms. They spent more than 400 days behind bars. Their third colleague, peter greste of australia, was deported three days ago. Those are three journalists out of al jazeera free in egypt. That is certainly good news all around. Lets look at the data check equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Green on the screen. It is an interesting friday sort of a nonnews friday, still reacting off the news of greece. Euro advances, crude oil, that is american crude, that is a nice it. 52. 02. Edward morse joining us in the next hour from citigroup. 15 point 34 is a remarkable number over the last few weeks. Recruit at 60. Sterling we will get to in a minute. That is euros sterling. Ukrainian currency doing a little better at the first sign of hope and a good a 72 hours for stop quickly to the monitor and brendan, this is euro sterling intense, and here is a longterm trend of sterling weakness. Some like switzerland, some of the other currencies of great strength or almost at 1 10 deviation. What we are seeing is the value of the u. K. Got one it created the euro. Denmark got it, too. It is having a hard time old into its currency, but there is great value. The northern eurozone is tom the backstory is swedens central bank making original economic history with a negative Interest Rate. Brendan and also the promise of additional qe. They have been able to hold out after this and they are now joining that global currency war, but sweden is not immune to this. Tom reading over the weekend to get us interested in the economic than europe. We will call it the European Union ballet. Germany and greece have dance the dance in the past day as exhausted leaders turn from kiev, athens, maybe back to you. B back to kiev. Angela merkel will consider 2 3 of whatever the promises were made the last 14 times you were in brussels. Hans nichols what is the moment for a guy like you that has been to brussels 18 times in the last three years. What is different this time . Hans right now they need to come up with a common denominator, since we are talking fractions, tom, and any do have another debate over the numerator. It can be taken care of in a political context, and that is monday. The technical talk in place of a seem to be progressing and they seem to be coming up with a common data set, and then they can have another set of arguments on just what the Bailout Program is going to look like. In the next two weeks in the next six months and in the next six years, seven years, next generation. Brendan hans, what happened in the last 24 hours . From where i said, it looks like will control look it looks like wolfgang surechaebler played good cop, and Angela Merkel played bad cop. Hans tengions me of cold once they figure out were the breaking points were, and after that we have personalities and chances for facetoface meetings. There is some pessimism. Jeanclaude juncker is concerned, he is the Euro Finance Group leader. He has expressed a fair amount of pessimism. Most of the optimism seems to be coming from the goodwill by the out of that merkeltsipras meeting, but it is hard to construct an agreement off a goodwill by. Brendan it feels like they took shots together. What are the concessions that germany is willing to grant . Hans the current Bailout Program that ends at the end of the month, germany has opened the idea that they will tweet and change some of the goals. Not exact way clear where they will change that, but they are open to reopen up this package. What greece has set as they will keep about 60 , 70 of it, so they need to have this debate, this discussion that could eventually be an allnight negotiation on the rest of it, on the 30 . Tom hans, i saw video overnight on youtube, the fierce fighting we read about in you. It was a stunning video of violence. Can the ceasefire or the seas are to be or the ceasefire to be even make it to monday morning . Hans we will have to wait until fedora 15 when you click send. We will have to wait until february 15 when it clicks in. We have 24 hours to 48 hours when fighting is technically allowed in the macys fire takes hold. That is when we willing to make adjustment on how real or enforceable it is. Tom hans nichols, thank you so much our expert in germany. Our guest host, you have essentially done a world tour but what is original about europe right now away from the headlines we see everyday . In moscow, for example, you see lots of concern about foreigncurrency debt, you see concern about sanctions, oil and you see this all over europe. You have questions about how far behind western europe is in terms of catching up to the u. S. Business cycle, and the efficacy of monetary policy. Tom brendan, we saw the headline, socgen pulling 1500 people at leave out of russia. I do not want to use the four citigroup, but is the basic idea that western finance good move out of russia . Steven there are plenty of questions as to sort of what the long game is versus the short game. What the impact of the oil price is on the economy in these areas, and then you see different regions of the world. You see in the middle east, for example, a focus just on the oil price, and in other parts of the world, you see folks thinking about the aftermath. What it takes to make the oil price higher. What does it do to these economies . You see a different focus sometimes about the same front metals in different parts of the world. Brendan steven we are watching as journalists all the steps, all the powers that went to minsk. You take a step back at the as a macro analyst. How much attention do you play to the blowbyblow of these negotiations, or do you just wait for the outcome . Steven you have to sort of put some limits here and say no matter how bad it goes in the case of greece, you do not have anyone in the periphery of europe who wants to follow this down that road, so you can have some parameters here that things could go very badly for one small part of the eurozone, but they have done just a time to come back from where they were a few years ago. Brendan for you there are limits to the contagion. Steven the backdrop of the ecb easing must like the fed had done when they raise rates, the backdrop is different. Tom i want to bring into what we look at here at bloomberg surveillance, this is the flow that jon ferro in london uses this jumble of data points out of europe, we translate into what is going on in europe. Steve wieting help us, is europe in recession . Steven europe is not a recession, neither is japan. In the u. S. We reported as 1. 2 tom i knew you where you are going because youre so good at this post up report the math differently than we do. Steven we report in annualized rate. They report quarter to quarter. Tom this drives me nuts and drives Alan Greenspan nuts. Nobody is devious and here, it is just apples and oranges. Brendan i will make a note, control room, it drives me nuts, and drives adam greens Alan Greenspan nuts only tom keene can say that. Tom thank you for making this up, it is not as gloomy. Steven we are given data all the time that misleads folks. What happened in the first order of last year with the First Quarter of last year with u. S. Economy there are statistical anomalies. We make a big deal out of things sometimes. Tom did you guys not to be valentines day memo . This is the bro show brendan i and wearing red, i wore a tie coming up, president obama heads to a summit on Cyber Security. Who will show up iago we will discuss. This is bloomberg surveillance. on bloomberg television, streaming on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg. Com. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. I am tom keene, Olivia Sterns is off today for stop lets get to our top headlines from around the world. Here is brendan greeley. Brendan United Nations with a dire warning on yemen. It is collapsing before our eyes. We closed embassies admit unrest. Nearly half the countrys provinces have been taken over by rebels. Teargas rocks and rubber bullets filled the air as friends and foes of venezuelas socialist government staged a doing marshes on the anniversary of last years bloody protest movement. Protests also took place in caracas. In south africa unprecedented walkout. Armed Police Remove the Freedom Fighters party after they interrupted zumas speech. Members of the Opposition Party then walked out in protest. Zuma upgraded his private home with funds. Tom i love when you do these stories. I have no idea what the eef is about. I am not up to speed. Brendan theres a great economist piece on south africa that says this is how you dismantle a democracy stepbystep slowly. Tom we should stop the show and say congratulations to all of the this is really cool. She takes over, the previous guy goes somewhere else. Brendan somewhere else, we are not sure how he is shuffled off. She is next ordinary and wellknown economicst. Tom chances are she wrote every word of it. Brendan at the beginning of the financial crisis, i asked her how bad is it, what should we do . Moving to the u. S. West coast, president obama is that stanford today for sup you will host a summit on Cyber Security. Here is what he says he wants to do president obama it is going to bring everybody together tech lawenforcement, consumer and prophecy act of it consumer and privacy. Brendan it is only a summit of the most import of people decided to show up. That is not happening. Peter cook is our men and washington. Peter, the president is going to be a little lonely on the west coast. Peter there are some important people showing up at the summer including tim cook of apple, arguably the most important tech ceo of the country. Other business leaders, Brian Monahan at bank of america, the head of semantics, but you do not have other big names that were invited and declined for a variety of reasons. Brendan peter, i do to interrupt you here, this is coming with him in the post office in san jose. Let me show you this peter that is right, missing in action. Some of the biggest names in tech, including Mark Zuckerberg of facebook. You see the others here. They will not take part. Some of them said it is a security summit, we are sending our top Cyber Security people, but we know there are tensions between the white house and the tech community, and some of the reasons these folks may not be showing up are these tensions and they do not necessarily want to be seen with the president of the United States working on issues over government surveillance programs. It is a real issue the president going to have to try to deal with while he is out there though it is not on the specific agenda of this. Summit brendan are they personally angry at the president and not want to do with this, or is it bad for them to be seen with the president right now . Ppeter the sense i get from talking to go in the Tech Industry and in the white house as well is there is a real reason why their top security people would be going to this event, first of all. This is an in the weeds type of conversation. Secondly, these companies to have a real issue with the white house. Being seen with the president right now, im not sure if it is the optics as much of the message they are sinning to washington that they have a problem with the surveillance debates still come and it is hurt their businesses, and they want to some a real message to washington that this is an issue on their agenda that is not being dealt with. Tom peter, if you and i were going to enjoy the cigar bar choice in the lobby of the Willard Hotel this morning which hunk of washington is going to get the Cyber Security issue . Is it a pentagon military hunk, or is it Something Else . Peter tom, this is an issue that goes beyond the defense sector, as important as it is there. That is a big moneymaker. These are big contracts. What is most reported about the summit is what has changed is the sony hack has changed the conversation in washington. There is a lot more focus on it. You will hear big talk today about the payment system, for example, banks are represented pretty significantly at this congress and that gives you an indication of how brought a base this is in the economy right now and the threat to the economy. The white house wants better sharing between the government and the private sector. That is the focus of this conversation, but it will not have one with legislation. We may be closer to that after the summit and later this series of what happened at sony and amp up. Brendan all right, peter cook in washington thank you, peter. Tom you have done great work on this for bloomberg businessweek. Brendan i wrote a piece about d. C. Were i found three members of congress who could describe to me how the internet works. That has changed. So much legislation action, the sony hack as peter pointed out that really a lot more people in congress understand what is going on and how important it is. Our twitter question of the day is on a can really different subject commodities. Are we heading for 20 oil . Tweet us bsurveillance. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. A better screen today, a friday screen, the 10year yield at 2 . There is peace relative with peace on earth. Our time today lets do a morning mustread out of boston. They are buried in 18 feet of snow. Eight unspoken rules of celebrate valentines day at work. She once heard a coworker was gifted laundry at work. This is probably a bad idea, along with anything overly noisy or obnoxious like one of those singing cards or a man dressed up in a gorilla suit. This is brilliant work by justine hofherr. What is the citigroup strategy Steven Wieting . Steven i do not have a valentines day strategy. [laughter] tom do they have memos . I know the kids have memos at school now where everybody is treated equally. Brendan oh, yeah, and you cannot send in baked goods. Steven if there was a memo, i missed it. Brendan every year my wife says i do not care about valentines day, do nothing, and i explain this at work in all the women i work with they do not believe her, get her something, and i trust them and get her something and she says honey, i told you not to give me anything. Tom do not do this stupid restaurant thing. Do not do the stupid restaurant thing. In our next hour, we are looking forward to speaking with robert about euro parity. Stay with us. Friday the 13th. Tom oil, 52 a barrel. Really looking forward to that. Lets get to our top headlines this morning. Here is brendan greeley. Brendan the governor John Kitzhaber is under investigation by the attorney general on the influence peddling allegation surround him and is the onset. He is been abandoned by his partys leadership, three senior democrats called on the four term governor to step down. And raleigh, north atlantic, where the fbi is launching an inquiry into the murder of three young muslims gunned down inside a chapel hill apartment. Authorities are trying to determine whether religious or ethnic hatred or motivating factors. Last night, more than 5000 evil attended the funeral of the victims. The suspect is facing firstdegree murder charges. New york times medias columnist david carr has died. He collapsed in his office thursday. Just hours after he moderated a conversation with Edward Snowden and to others about an upcoming document a film. He attend a memoir about his fight with drug addition. He was 58 years old. Tom we read him religiously in new york magazine, the atlantic and the New York Times. There was no weakness, every article, he could slat it off. Every article had volume. Brendan he was incredibly important voice. We have all been through this. I watched this. I watched the Media Institution collapse and nobody chronicled that better than david carr. You can be quick you can be elegant, and you can be good, he was all thr

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