possibility and the symptoms, etc., and he handled himself accordingly. >> spencer had been working in guinea with doctors without borders. he took the subway and went bowling. we have the story covered from a variety of angles. shelley holliday is at bellevue hospital, plus begin with an expert at the cdc in washington and a former world health organization epidemiologist. in the meantime, two days ago before the presidential runoff election in brazil, dilma rousseff facing opposition candidate. the latest polls indicate reset has a slightly. whoever wins will have much good news to deliver on the brazilian economy, facing a budget budget deficit and business confidence close to a five-year low. are punishing amazon. shares down as much as 13% after the e-commerce company posted its worst quarter loss in more than a decade. amazon forecast sales and profits of the fourth quarter that missed estimates. gene munster covers amazon for piper jaffray. amazon ceo jeff bezos has been spending a lot on infrastructure. right now the company is headed for only a cycle -- second annual loss since 2003. is asoft turnaround plan software giant is showing some traction. sales in the most recent quarter beat estimates. you can give the credit to cloud computing and workup is upgrading the personal computer networks. overall, sales were up 11% from a year ago. compared to companies like ibm and hewlett-packard that are having either slower growth or no growth. meanwhile, the ceo since february has been very busy cutting costs. >> challenge is immediate, the case of the walking dead meets dr. who. amc networks agreed to by almost half of bbc america. the price is $200 million. the combination will give both networks more leverage. when negotiating with pay tv. those are our top stories this morning. i want to reward to the data check because of the imports of the ebola check. yesterday in a quieter week. wrubel well out over 41, nearing 42. ruble, crushed. let's go to the bloomberg terminal. this is what brazil is about. here is the election. the collapse of brazil. lulairacle that was the brazilian string. this is the ugliness as we go into sunday. down.bringing inflation everyone expected lula to not be responsible and he was. what you see here is that the difference between parties. it has been the same party in power -- >> the individual. in the system a reset. we will cover this on "bloomberg surveillance." as i put out on twitter this morning, in my backyard, in all of our back yards this morning. >> ebola has come to new york. it was only a matter of time. the hospitals have been preparing, doing dry runs for something like this. now we know the details. this man came over after working in guinea and doctors without borders. he did not feel any kind of fever or fatigue until recently. he has been taking this chapter day. said they -- twice a >> we have been talking about this. brendan greeley, what was your inclination as you read of isolation? >> the key is to look at the difference between the way doctors without borders handled this, because they do treatments where there are ebola outbreaks, and the way cdc handles it. the cdc development improve its procedures, this is what bellevue's doing now, what they're doing is adopting what doctors without borders has always done. >> if you are a columbia physicians and surgeons, as dr. spencer is, you can't pick a better hospital in america. >> bellevue. >> the first maternity ward. they made popular the syringe. they own emergency care. as he goes in there last night. talks he did also have contact with several people. not that many, but three others and also a driver because he took an uber after he went bowling. uber has put out a statement saying neither our driver --tner nor any of our subsequent passengers are at risk. specifically said, we provided records and confirmed one of our cover partners provided a right to the patient yesterday evening. >> we're learning as we go. we're in a place where we have never been before with ebola. he e-mail me to say that already change their own protocol. you now are automatically, if you work for the organization doctors without borders coming quarantined for 21 days. talks rather than allowed to travel. >> we are already changing. this is not going to happen in the future. we already know you're not allowed to come home, take a new book, go bowling and go back to her apartment. >> he knew he'd been somewhere that was high risk, yet when he came back, he did not up at temperature so he could continue with his normal life. it is when you have a temperature is when you're contagious? >> you are not contagious until you start to show symptoms. >> the variety of ebola. the distinction between a virus and a bacterium is you get a lot of change and surprise as the virus moves along. i don't want to be inflammatory, but that has to be front and center. >> i could like the virus as it is is bad enough. we do not have a handle on what is happening now. >> is in the just engine is, ebola is not like malaria? if you get it, you're it huge risk? >> the worst thing i read about this is about two weeks old, the problem with the ball is it robs you of your humanity. if your child gets a come you cannot care for your child. >> we have this ebola story covered from a variety of angles. go to bellevue hospital in speak with an expert at cdc in washington and a former world health organization it immunologists. our twitter question of the day -- tweet us. we will be back with more "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." we are focused on what we see with ebola. we will have much more on that. our guest host, who can touch upon what we see in western , head of emerging markets, fixed income strategy at bank of america merrill lynch. we're thrilled to have you here. we will talk about brazil in a bit. is the general tone on emerging markets with the recent volatility, is this opportunity where you want to be in, be active making decisions or under the desk with ethan harris? >> i think you have to be very much on top of what is happening with the degree of uncertainty that we have regarding what the u.s. is going to do, what the ecb is going to do, you really need to be different chatting across countries. flex i want to bring this to your point that you found with this research, this is the idea that russia, ukraine, germany rate ukraine, in the middle of all of this, something like romania. >> you go around the world and your global emerging markets survey. i'm going to read something. created significant room for national bank of romania. i don't want to get into the weeds with romania, but it doesn't strike me this is something that these countries sort of caught in the middle there have to fight -- >> caught in the middle. >> what we're seeing in central europe is very low inflation. generally, week activity. the central banks cutting interest rates. we're seeing that in other countries outside central europe, too. we've seen it in chile and korea and thailand. it is quite interesting that against the concerns about the fed, hiking and what are em central banks when to do, we still see many of them cutting interest rates. >> in 2004, in progress, unicredit was out front. this expansion of finance, it's optimism of eastern europe. has it evaporated? it is not. we think central eastern europe is at the forefront of the countries that may benefit from a recovery of global manufacturing. their focused on manufacturing, reopening, very integrated to germany. in the new cycle, where we see the u.s. recovery and eventually europe recovering, those country stand to benefit more than, for example, that an american countries. -- latin american countries. they're much more commodity exports. >> we saw the shift to perhaps later in 2015, which emerging markets does that benefit the most? >> in general, we see countries where there is no credit concerns. where there is your duration stories whether it is central europe or mexico or correia, two to do better than countries where there are credit concerns or korea, tend to do better than countries where there are credit concerns like russia or brazil. >> can we draw distinction between which of those countries is exposed to the problems in ukraine and russia in which isn't? >> the impact so far hasn't been that significant. are,urther to the east you the further exposed you are. so probably romania and poland are more exposed than countries to the west. the impact has a really good visible in the data. quite i just picked up malaysia because i could spell it. if you look at the 12 months, it is pretty moldy results. if you look your today, these are bold markets. -- bull markets. or is it a squishy mishmash as they try to get out of the way of central banks? >> what you had this year was a big surprise treasuries. we started the year with everybody forecasting treasury yields to be 3.5% by now. they didn't. >> the heart of the matter is malaysia or romania are bold and to janet yellen mario draghi? a large extent. >> these countries are working so hard to bring inflation down. they have the rates wave of anywhere else in the development of. do worry they will lose that focus? >> inflation is surprising on the downside. if you look at flechette and -- inflation in emerging markets, it is averaging 4.5%. argentina and venezuela, high inflation countries. this is a very low inflation rate. there are countries with problems. result, turkey, south africa. the majority of the countries is facing very low inflation today. talk so we should get out of the habit of worrying about inflation for emerging markets? now, yes. growth is also on the downside. growth averaging about 4.5%. >> the concept of the bricks over? >> i was a goldman sachs when the concept was developed, so -- >> you love it. >> i love it. >> you don't like manchester united? >> no. >> alberto ades with us. the emotion we're feeling in new york city. ebola, here. post" >> and new york dog has ebola. here's what we're facing. we say good morning to all of you in texas that have been living with it. >> i have another cover free to look at. >> you are killing me. >> josh green has taken everything you been thinking about obama and ebola and his written it down and researched it out. the president does not do crisis. >> i have hockey news. should i put that up as well? >> we will be right back on "bloomberg surveillance." quick stay with us. much more on ebola. it is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪ >> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." futures negative seven on a friday, a quiet churned to the screen. much more focused on ebola. from the, company news files a bloomberg west. >> we start with microsoft. general plan showing some traction. shills -- sales beat most estimates. give credit to cut computing and more companies of getting a personal computer networks. sales were up 11% overall from a year ago. airbnb meets with investors to discuss an employee stock sale which would value the site at about $13 billion according to "the wall street journal." investors punishing amazon today. shares down as much as 13% after the e-commerce company posted its worst quarterly loss in more than a decade. missed analyst estimates for the fourth quarter. the ceo jeff bezos has faced heavily on her structure is the company has it's almost second loss -- it's only annual second loss. the debtsuggest it is of technology. >> i think it is interesting. we gang up on these companies for not spending on investing. we say, your spitting on buybacks and dividends will stop here's jeff bezos doing just that. spending the money they make in revenue, putting it in expansion and asia, overseas, and he's getting punished for it. >> amen. looking at headline from october 13 from bloomberg, amazon to create 1000 positions and warehouses in the u.k. with our rehab 6000 full-time -- were they are you have 6000 full-time workers. i don't think this is the standard case of three new and san francisco without assets that are overly valued. that said, jeff bezos is single mightily obsessive with this investment in such a dominant personality that it is hard to imagine him turning. >> does he speak mandarin? >> he is probably learning. >> let's bring up the chart of little -- it is a is it is a difficult chart. that is a good chart. a brilliant chart. it if you wonder where they will be six months, i mean, this patient's thing is a huge deal. >> i have a new role, i'm now suspicious of any tech company that has a drone strategy. >> he has been spitting on that, warehouses, and smartphones. the fire? >> no,ave a tv program? they don't. they have content. dogs."ed "out for it was mediocre. "alpha dogs." it was mediocre. >> you get boxes at your front door? >> i do. >> to they get boxes of amazon in romania and the rest of the emerging markets? >> i would say it is probably -- >> it doesn't work that well, here, either. phenomenon a global or developed world phenomenon? >> i think the developed world phenomenon is the one we need to be watching. have to do with labor. labor conditions in germany and the u.k. cost down so forth is warehouses, the real problems with lawsuits from labor -- >> help us with the report from last night as a look to the debris. the analyst saying at ever coursing the headwinds are hitting a lot sooner than expected. the topline underperformance we're talking about, backwards looking, was largely driven by north american media. all of that money that jeff bezos's plan into the content of "alpha dogs" is not paying off for now, when is a payoff? >> down 2%. holiday season, they will make a lot of money. >> they trimmed their holiday sales projections because of for an exchange currency rates linked to the strong dollar. that will be another head when this holiday season when you're supposed to really break it in. >> can we bring up the chart again? the long-term chart of amazon? >> there it is. tom, you said the debris of that call. there is a drop there, but it is so cemented itself into some and he lives. we get regular shipments every day of diapers, food. it is hard to believe this is in a signal to just make a few changes. , years ago they said, wait, wait, it will pay off. how does a company shift from huge expense into generating cash flow? does that happen in one quarter or would you suggest with your experience that it is illusionary? >> it will take time. if you look at that chart -- >> for third time, we are bringing up the amazon chart. we usually only do this on wednesday. , on, colby. >> look at the performance from 2009. we doubled or more than doubled since 2009. moynihan know this chart looks like your expense account? >> i agree. this is it just a correction, this is dump the phone. >> the fire phone. >> for inept the chart one last time. put down the bloody mary. the chart for the fourth time. our twitter question of the day -- stay with us. ♪ >> good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." fascinating business story. what will amazon due to generate profit and cash flow down the road gekko -- down the road? this is "bloomberg surveillance." important top headlines. >> profit rises at general motors. trying to put its recall woes be third quarter analyst estimates. stronger sales of sport-utility vehicles and pickup truck's, beating expectations in six of the last nine quarters. the amount of oil supply to markets by saudi arabia falls in september according to a person familiar with the matter. the world's top crude exporter supplied 9.63 million barrels a day last month, reduction of three to 20,000 barrels from august. -- 320,000 barrels from august. allen originally pledged for the $6 million. those are your top headlines. how thissting to see is applied. the tone i got is he's more interested in the just ask and the doing of the process. -- in the logistics and the doing of the process. between's a distinction jeffrey sachs of columbia and released easterly at nyu. do we go in measured and careful as bill easterly was suggest? just ask would say, let's just been money. >> there's a third opinion as well which is a lot of the charity that has gone in as actually done a disservice in some of these west african countries. they've not had any incentive for the last two decades to stand up for their own public health. >> let's come back to new york city. >> shelby holliday is outside bellevue hospital in new york. give us the latest. things it seemed to be relatively calm here, but we've seen an influx of news tracks and police officers, now a chopper circling overhead. young's are getting busy because dr. craig spencer is here in isolation at bellevue hospital, arrived about noon yesterday. we are told bellevue hospital is one of eight hospitals designated by new york officials to handle these cases of ebola. they actually volunteered. more than half of the travelers coming from those three west african nations arrive here at jfk, so this hospital has been prepared. they have been doing drills and try to sing on fake patients and attended a symposium last week to practice putting on and taking off their gear. things seem to be smooth right now, but of course, we will be looking for updates throughout the day. >> the cdc updated it standards for donning and doffing a few days ago. has bellevue updated to the new doctors without borders model or the old cdc model? >> the symposium i mention that took place was in line with those new cdc guidelines. they have -- they are well aware of the new guidelines. they have the gear. we are they have been practicing extensively putting on and taking off that gear. has experienced treating patients with infectious diseases. it appears to be smooth. we're told everything is under control for now. as we saw in dallas, you don't know and you may not know for a few days. >> is there any indication the hospital is turning away patients because they are now treating this ebola patient, the doctor, or any patients are elected -- reluctant to go to bellevue? as the 4:00 a.m. when we got here, it is hard to tell, but i did speak to a nurse walking to work and she said she's expecting business as usual today and so is the rest of the hospital. this point, but as we saw in dallas that treated the ebola patient, is now 2/3 empty. this could have a big impact on the hospital and the bowling alley this patient went to two nights ago, which has been closed. uber released a statement. this is already impacting businesses. we will be watching those updates. new york officials were quick to people'strying to calm fears. i can tell you from riding the subway last night, it was more crowded than ever. people.cn to be worried they will actually get ebola being here in new york city. >> thank you for joining us. >> wonderful question about the effect on other people. one of the great things about bellevue is it service going back 200, even 300 years to the poor of new york city. many people who go to bellevue, i would say eight out of 10 or seven out of 10 people that go there, they don't have coverage, they're destitute, and i was a with or without ebola, that is their destination medical facility. that is the heritage of what bellevue does. >> and this is not bellevue's first epidemic. they handled cholera and the 19th century. you are totally right. within quarantined, and epidemic, cholera, and a bacterial infection, are way out in front of the verlin's of what we see with ebola. >> i do think some progress has been made since the outbreak worsens the case in dallas. they have the pentagon working on training domestic doctors, better standards from the cdc. >> joining us, a gentleman will need to listen to, gerald weissman. he is definitive on what people fear, particularly, governments fear, which is quarantine. good morning. when i look at your writing on quarantined, how close are we to the 19th century ciccone and steps -- trevor cooney and steps that you know are medical history? >> it turns out it is not back draconian. sanitation.and for example, right now, there's a quarantine built around much of west africa in neighboring countries will not let people cross. that is a precedent set in the 19 century when france and the united states and the western world was faced with cholera coming from bengal. it is not so new. it is not that ciccone and. >> what did we learn in the sars epidemic in china? much less freedom and democracy of travel in china than we have here. what did we learn from how the chinese handled bird flu? >> it turned out they used both techniques. they segregated the sick people and they also cleaned up their act. they were masks. even now we see new chinese jurist traveling through the world, -- tourists traveling through the world, they wear masks because they think they can catch something by air. sars was airborne. itdr. wiseman, how risky is that a viral element will change or mutate? is that part of our calculus now or do we wait that with ebola? >> it turns out that so far, and we don't know very much about ebola, it is only been around since 1976. at the moment, it has not mutated. no one can make any predictions. by and large, modern techniques have worked out a lot of mechanism of how this virus infects us. we have not demonstrated real mutation in the sense that the flu virus has mutated every year. >> first in west africa, now the u.s., the white house has asked the pentagon help out the cdc with certain parts of logistics. what have we learned about what the cdc should be doing better? >> i think my own view, and it is a radical one, we should have a flight ban from west africa. obviously, we don't have direct -- but we can do this by visas. no visas for travel from into the united states from the three major affected countries. we know this will work because nigeria had an epidemic transmitted to them by air close to its airports and was able to ebola withidemic of only 11 cases. it also suffered from the epidemic by doctor coming from liberia to nigeria. 11 cases occurred. they segregated them. it turns out, there is the more ebola in nigeria. we can learn that. >> just a put a fine point on it , your focus is not on the just export medical care, it is on quarantine? >> the real problem is we have one patient and may have more in new york city. we can take care of the patients that come here and segregate them, but you can't know how much disease we have or stop it until we stop people coming in. this marvelous, marvelous doctor who is lying at a bed not too far from where my office is -- >> chilled weissman, thank you so much. speaking of dr. spencer in isolation at bellevue hospital here in new york city. our twitter question touches on how all of us worldwide are affected this morning by the continuing story of ebola. are you changing anything you do because of ebola in the united states? tweet us. we will look at each one of your responses. we will be back. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." we want to get to the morning must-read come on the topic of the day, which is ebola. it is written by two visiting fellows. that is part of the amazing thing. india has a huge margaret worker population -- migrant worker population. i'm impressed and amazed it hasn't shown up officially in india. >> is what underlies the framework for all of us, which is ebola is not a medical problem but a public health problem. withers adequate public health --rastructure, ebola can be where there is adequate public health infrastructure, ebola can be contained. we have a case in mali. west africa is buried in misery without precedents. theael a disdain as part of adelstein, do we have a chance to contain it where it started? in nigeria,e seen for example, where the outbreak with theed early on right measures, it is possible to contain ebola. what is possible -- required is adequate amounts of staff and beds in order to do that. we have a strategy, we just need the resource and the means to implement it. >> make resources more specific. what did nigeria do right? you are in liberia. that liberia did not do? >> nigeria in the area are different economically. they had many more doctors and a better infrastructure. countryis a very rural with very few doctors and a very weak health system. i think that was part of the reason why the disease spread so rapidly there. >> the ability to contain ebola, just a simple function of economic development? if there are more hospitals, it more likely you can get a handle on it? >> if we are able to identify each case rapidly, to isolate it, and we have the resources to trace all of the contacts and put them under observation, then, yes, the outbreak will come to an end. at the moment, we're nowhere close to be able to do that. >> is it just economics are also the culture to consider? you talk about how there is a distrust among the people in liberia that gives rise to conspiracy theories and really butts up against efforts by organizations to contain the disease. >> that's right. there is an issue of trust in the population as well. i think there have been a lot of efforts in country to raise awareness, to explain to the population what the disease is. i think that has come a very long way. and from resistance from the population early on, now we see a much greater cooperation from the population on the ground. >> is this another lesson we learned from nigeria? communication is a big part of this? >> absolutely. it is extremely important to whatin to the population the disease is, what they need to do if they encounter a case, and what you see in countries choose mobilization from radio stations to tv stations, from churches and they spread this positive as such. i think very early on, the population had a much harder time understanding what ebola and whatit spreads, the consequences were. i think that is one of the more positive aspects. this has really changed and the committee occasion is probably one of the more successful parts of the response. >> michael edelstein has seen this firsthand believes this is an economic problem and can be solved. thank you so much. >> very good. on brazil, we will get to that in the senate elections. still in therapy from the world cup. careful look at the economy in brazil and what we will seek on sunday. stay with us. ♪ hour, olivert sarkozy of the carlyle group. half-brother's mr. sarkozy, that you know. we will touch on france and germany. .nd the bank stress test that is an import and conversation -- important conversation in our next hour. this is "bloomberg surveillance." scarlet fuene with and brendan greeley. the markets are voting, weaker brazilian economy. depreciated 15% since the summer of 2011 with the post-world cup plunge. what is the linkage of the demo recep-aecio neves? alberto ades is covering emerging markets. no one got lulu wrong like me. it is one of the worst calls i've ever made in my life. are we going to do it again? >> you are not alone. a lot of people got lula wrong. something important to clarify, lula did many right things but was also very lucky. the emerging markets, and goticular south america, very lucky after 2002. commodity prices went through the roof. china growth exploded. this country has benefited like no one else. >> do you assume dilma rousseff will win? >> the polls are indicating that. if you look at the polls a week ago, they were showing a technical time. over the past few days, the dilmaence between rousseff and aecio neves, it has widened. in favor of dilma. >> we have a chart i want to ask about, which is -- this is tracking the percent change in the rial overtime. this is where tom got it wrong -- >> thank you. >> correlation is not causation. is it not just their party, is there a real difference between the lula and dilma? >> i think there's a difference in the policies. the last administration, which has been more interventionist, particularly at the macro level, administration but there has been a loss and credibility. the brazilian central bank has top and able to deliver the inflation target, which the markets used to think was 4.5%. since two thousand seven. it only did it in 2009 because of the global recession. there is been a loss of credibility. there is been much more intervention policies. the global environment has changed. atna is no longer growing the same rate, commodities are not there. >> what are you looking at? interesting,nd part of delmas team has been limning the global economic crisis for some of the under performance. the problem with that argument is brazil has underperformed relative to its neighbors. that.is not only clearly, it is not only that. they need to change the policies. they have not been smart enough and reacting to the change of the global environment and as a result, they are stuck with very high interest rates and very low growth. >> when they intervene and promote stimulus, what are they doing wrong? is it a problem of transmission? >> let me put it this way. brazil has structural problems. it is one of the most closed economies in the world and has one of the most heavy or interventionist states in the emerging markets. but in addition to that, when they have the opportunity to let their currency weaken and convert to something closer to fair value, they did not do that. they kept it overvalued. the next administration is going to inherit a country that is not growing really more than 3% or has been growing less than 3% since 2011. a country with relatively high inflation and an overvalued currency. they had been using subsidies and price control to keep inflation below 6.5%. >> can you bring up the full screen on trade? i've a question on trade policy. argentina has really been having problems are shifting imports. e, former quot argentina industry secretary -- is brazil running out of patience? >> i think many countries are running out of patience with argentina. i am from argentina. argentina has not used foreign policy to get closer to countries. it has complex with priscilla and -- conflicts with zeal and ays many conflicts with urug and the holdout. >> i want to go back to my record lousy call on lula. the chart is ugly, ugly, ugly, ugly. is this an opportunity to go long the usual five stock to anyone owns in brazil? >> i think, yes. markets are clearly voting they want aecio to win. marcus did pretty well. they have turned out more recently. i think whoever wins, they will need to make change. even dilma will need to make change. i'm assuming she will react relatively positively issue wins. >> ok. don't make a mistake a second time. greatly appreciate it. take a look at the markets. two big numbers. one of the bottom of the screen, even 2.50 brazilian-breaks out the new weakness into the sunday election. russian rub isle jaw-dropping. ebola, afocused on case in new york city. our twitter question of the day -- ♪ >> doctors in isolation in new york city bellevue hospital this morning. we look at ebola in america and west africa. france struggles within. the ghost of the 20th century. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." it is friday, october 24. i'm tom keene. we lead with top headlines this morning with the news in my backyard. >> hooted at the latest ebola patient come into contact with -- who did the latest ebola patient come into contact with? he's being treated here in manhattan. that, best information is for the relevant time, he was only exposed to a very few people. partially because he knew exactly what the illness was all about. >> the doctor had been working in guinea. two days to go before the presidential runoff election in brazil. indicate apolls slight lead. wins will not have good news to deliver on the brazilian economy. -- whoever wins will not have good news to deliver on the brazilian economy. >> investors are punishing amazon today. it shares down 13% after posting its worst quarter loss of the decade. amazon missed estimates. they are spending more on same day, building infrastructure for sunday delivery. spending at amazon a greater rate and a lot of it is more infrastructure related than ever. wildcards like the fire phone that nobody bought. >> jeff bezos has been spending a lot on infrastructure. microsoft's turnaround plan is showing some traction. the company's sales beat estimates. more companies upgrading their personal computer networks. sales were up 11% from one year ago. that comes at a time when ibm and hewlett-packard are reporting no growth. satya nadella has been busy doing what he should be. >> turning to oil, the price of oil falling again today. biggest one-day gain in the month. crude doing better. ebola, what have we learned this morning on ebola? >> he came into contact with three people. because the doctor had come home and did not have a fever, he was going about his normal life. our goal is to get away from the hysteria. storyare we on the uber this morning? story.e is no uber yes, he did ride uber. he also wrote the subway. unless you are symptomatically, you are not going to spread. >> they put out a statement assuring the public everything is ok, saying none of the passengers are at risk. pretty straightforward. >> are you changing anything about your personal routine because of ebola? tweet us. >> do you expect facemasks in new york? >> we will see. >> oliver sarkozy of the carlyle group. i go back to 1951. the inner six back then. ,ow, there is the inner two france and germany. what will be the chemistry in the back and forth between paris and berlin ? >> it's in the interest of both countries to remain constructive. germany is the largest economic engine in europe. france is the largest economy. it is dependent on germany and germany is dependent on france. agreed -- i both of the frenching republic again. i assume you think this they good idea. -- a good idea. >> the french are going to have to decide that for themselves. nicholas has tremendous experience and tremendous energy. >> the energy is in order now, isn't it? --re is a need for a french needs new energy. some would suggest that requires new leadership. tried-and-true were already tested is not going to be enough. we need to see what leaders emerge come the election. >> would christine lagarde be appropriate? >> i think she is great. >> does france need more than but structural changes to the market? >> you have the structural implications or limitations that come with years now of the evolution of this compact the government has created with its people. you also need an attitudinal change. people there believe deeply in the system such as it sits. you need to educate the public as to why this change is needed. >> what sense of urgency is there among the french public? so that people who want to start companies want to stay in france instead of going to london or the u.s.? >> you walk the streets of new york and you see hundreds of thousands of french people. it's at the expense of the french taxpayer and french system. it's a real issue. people there are conscious of it. there is a malaise in the country. going from that to solutions-based approach -- i think we forget how large the european system is. how important to the emerging markets is eastern europe? how important is a more resilient europe? >> it is critical for not only the central european countries, but asia. asia trades significantly with europe. even latin america has traded with europe. investors and analysts changing their forecasts for the u.s. and the emerging markets -- of a terrible tragedy in moscow. the moving out of the french, replacing the united states and trade. >> he was unashamed to support russia. he made a real point of that. -- word youy see see the difference is breaking within europe between who handles russia? >> it's a terribly difficult question. you will see a united front between germany and france. they have to approach it in that way. has had a tendency to break away a bit from that movement. you will see a united front here. >> how do you respond to european pessimism? questioning the future of that european union. need this european union. how do you respond to the pessimism? they are fighting history. it's going to stay in place because it has to stay in place. at this point, there is no turning back. you will have some changes on the margin, but the union is strong and will stay strong. >> very good. we will continue the discussion. thank you for sticking around. have breaking news. -- fordhe coming out coming out with results that were better than expected. this is all versus $.45 last year. give credit to growth in china. slow down in europe and losses in russia. >> silicon valley companies are being urged -- >> the chief financial officer at ford will be on market makers this morning. stay with us. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." -- theime for relationship between the market and the stock market -- credit market and the stock market. the white line tracks high-yield credit. the yellow line is the s&p 500. the healed credit. peaked.igh-yield credit people in the market always talk about looking to the credit market as the leading indicator. equities ends up playing catch-up. >> this chart is so important. i remember when amazon collapsed 15 years ago. the bond people were way out in front of the -- it's the same story every time. this is cardinal rule number one. i feel like i have to do this as a public service. every time i hear the word it's also high risk. do you see a bubble there? >> the credit markets have been viewed as in a bubble state for years. at some point, it's going to have to go the other way. right now, they continue to be pretty constructive. ofthere's real concerns liquidity. they want to keep their balance sheets protected. yields,we see these low every cfo out there says i have to pay downte equity. it's another opportunity for corporate action. >> at this point, you would find most people who can already have. is peoplere seeing buying bonds out of lack of conviction. >> lack of conviction? >> it's unconvincing. in high-yieldbble bonds is being described to me is something you carry for a second while you move onto something else. is that a safe strategy? >> i would not think of it that way. >> how big is your cable tv bill? >> too large. $600. it's outrageous. cord cutting. ♪ >> good morning from new york city. a doctor in isolation at bellevue hospital. tom keene with scarlet fu and brendan greeley. two days to go until brazil's presidential runoff election. the president is facing the opposition candidate. latest polls indicate he has a slight lead. never wins won't have good news to deliver about the economy. the amount of oil supplied to the market by saudi arabia falling in september. exporterss top crude -- a reduction of three and 78,000 barrels a day from august. did increasen . when did million dollars will be used -- $1 million will be used for containment units. he originally pledged $26 million. individual contributing for ebola -- >> the application of the charitable dollars across the whole span of this, whether it's the medicine of it or the logistics of it. let's continue our discussion. >> it's a lack of logistics. here is where the cbc continually falls short. the white house give the pentagon the brief in west africa, taking over the lead from the cbc. here, domestically, the cdc is behind. what has the cdc been getting wrong? >> there were problems caseiated with the duncan in dallas. problems with cdc follow-up, quick action, some of the protocols. they're happening number of steps taken since then to tighten things up. from the three countries in west africa into the five ports of entry into the u.s., they put in place new measures there recently. cdc came under criticism, but has taken a number of steps to correct those mistakes. the cdc has focused on testing and tracing. the have not focused on logistics. are they capable of doing logistics in medical care? >> the cdc's biggest contributions are on at the meal -- epidemiology and training. they have 150 personnel deployed in west africa today, on the ground. the have mobilized 1000 of their employees in response to the domestic and international. they are not doing what the u.s. military is doing, which is ,reating an air bridge deploying mobile laboratories. what is the most value the ebola czar can add to this? >> we are fighting a complicated two front war here in trying to and keep people from panicking and lead them to believe that, as new cases come into the ad states -- the united states, they are being managed effectively. on the international side, the u.s. has made a massive commitment of $1 billion for the next six months. lots of civilian capacity. make sense of all of this and coordinate and tighten up the different agencies contributing and help communicate to the american public what the goals are. work atur international johns hopkins, do we trust thie statistics on a friday? do you believe in the who numbers? mathematicsve the and statistics that are being reported? >> the data has improved of late. right now, we are looking at just under 10,000 confirmed cases and about half that level was fatalities. the epidemic is continuing to increase exponentially. doubling ins, it's scope be are we are anticipating 10,000 cases per week. those numbers come almost everyone agrees and admits those numbers are in underestimation by a factor of 2-4. you're talking about 10,000 confirmed cases, you should figure we are talking about 20-40,000 cases. that is terrifying. >> let's cut to the scientific analysis. let's cut to the emotion of the moment. are you going to take an uber? today? >> i am. , but peopleandable have to keep this thing in perspective. the problem with the extent to which this gets coverage is it concerns people way beyond the actual -- >> our twitter question of the day. are you changing anything you do because of ebola? ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get you some company news right now. profit rising and general motors at the automaker tries to put its recalls in the rearview mirror. gm exceeded analyst estimates in six of the last nine quarters. sears challenges the report that it will close 116 sears and f 6000stores and layouf employees. of sears holdings moved higher on that news. agrees to buy half of bbc america. this combination gives both more leverage when they negotiate with pay-tv carriers. >> oliver sarkozy from carlyle group. theiding expertise to acquisition. suggesting the bond world is forever changed with the unconstrained exit of bill gross from pimco. i think you are starting to see stability come back to the market as people digest that earthshaking news from that marketplace. there is a lot of movement, a lot of reallocation. people scrambling to try to get there -- >> prices up, yields down. the bull market of 2012. that was easy. now it will be a lot harder. will people be more acute about their allocation? >> the would be well served to. aat we try to emphasize is team approach. we stay away from the concept of the store manager, slow and steady wins the race. >> a lot of movie mining around. around. of money moving they try to squeeze out every basis point. >> different institutions need to take different approaches given their constituents. in some cases, it's entirely rational for them to seek out the advice of consultants to be deliberate about it and be able to report the steps they took. for others, they have the ability to be much more flexible. without flex ability comes opportunity. issuinge has no problem thirty-year and 50 your paper. we would never do that. did the french get it right? needs toyour duration match your assets. >> a huge deal. we have five-year and seven-year paper for a 20 year obligation. >> you will have a refinance issue. >> explain why it's important to our listeners and viewers worried about their 401(k). >> you need to consider where you are going to be by the time you need to draw down this. you need to have access to and investment pools that will give you access to those funds. >> you are not doing hedge funds. how bad is the carnage right now? >> the hedge fund industry needs to rethink the word "hedge." many of them have gone away from that. >> hedge funds are not hedging . >> it's giving the buyer of the product a different impression than the ultimate result they are getting. that is creating volatility. my sense is the hedge fund industry a stronger than people make it out to be. people are going to continue to seek alpha and the industry is continuing to attract the best and the brightest. >> i happen to agree with that statement. we need an important data check. >> futures currently indicating a lower open. s&p futures down by .3%. the 10 year yield goes down to 2.25%. amex crude continues to move lower. waiting home sales due out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." to cut the cord or not? hbos cbs made it a lot easier. they will be offering their content online for streaming. this may strengthen their hand. the media analyst at fdr capital markets joins us now from virginia. let's start with hbo and cbs's decision. they are offering content after years of resistance. what made them sit the switch -- flip the switch? companies these operate from a position of great strength cbs is the most-watched tv network. hbo is the most popular premium network. they have content consumers want to watch. the way consumers want to watch is changing. they want to watch things over the internet. there's a whole generation of millennial's interested in getting things -- more selection in their life. the technology is forcing these move where the consumers moving and put out these alternatives. it will be niche services. over time, this is going to be a big source of entertainment. >> i like what you said about how they are forced into it by consumers. you said before the cable companies went from worried about having to make their content available online to very excited about it because it's a way for them to sell internet services and get customers to pay more. do most people need the superfast speeds? is this a case where we are not really getting the benefits of the improved speed? companies are very good at telling you a bundle of services and it's a great value. 200 plus channels, dvr capability. channels will-top not very effectively replace that bundle. americans love tv. we watch an average of four hours a day. it's hard to see that people mass tot the cord in buy these channels. people won't go there in mass. for a percentage, the selection is interesting. only wayms like the the cable companies can lose is it the fcc decides to regulate them and call them carriers. what is your bet? will that happen? >> i don't expect there to be a dramatic change in the regulation. the internet has been a tremendous source of strength for america. there is going to be a lot political backlash against the idea of changing what's working to dramatically. i expect things to move around the edges. the miraclelook at of the last 3-5 years and media, does that continue within your universe of stocks? is it ever forward a bull market? >> i like the tv network stocks. there are some great companies. fees.is strength in streeters are buying content. there is growing international demand for american content. the other half that is added driven is seeing a deceleration. we are not measuring the audience is on tv like we were in the past. weekend.ory has that's what you have to watch. in this era of uncertainty, you can really do best hope the thing on the biggest brands. thank you so much for joining us. all sarkozy is our guest host for the morning. -- oliver sarkozy. i don't understand how you ever leave the house. >> its directv and my love of the redskins. nfl direct. you live in new york, you have to have the package to watch the redskins. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." we have a new case of ebola revealed here in new york. that doctor is in bellevue hospital in manhattan. a lot of people wondering what the next step is for the government. we know president obama has selected the ebola czar. betty liu is with us now. a lot of questions over what he does cummings eckley. -- what he does, exactly. ebolat exactly is this czar supposed to do? all of us woke up this morning in new york city buzzing about this new case that has been diagnosed in new york. it raises these fears. emergencyto several response officials over the last several weeks. they all have questions as to how much power run client has -- has.lain >> there was somebody with a lot of power who was the ebola czar for the entire bush administration. he was responsible for bioterror and pandemics. the obama administration reorganized the national security council and decided to not have that continued. having power on this when there is no crisis is more important than giving it to somebody in a crisis. >> that makes a lot of sense. someone who knows quite a bit about how to organize various balance, how to political aspects of a role like this is ken feinberg. he was there to administer the 9/11 fund and the financial crisis and the bp oil spill. he will be joining us later. some of the issues we are racing on this program are going to be addressed to him. >> ken feinberg on "in the loop." thank you so much. i wonder to what extent the private sector will be something klain focuses on as well. >> this idea of limiting travel. >> our twitter question of the day, "will you change the way you do anything because of ebola?" >> no. >> nothing? no facemask? what if you are in the vicinity of bellevue hospital? >> we can hang out in front of it. people need to understand this is a disease that is hard to spread. >> it is not airborne. >> it is real and ugly, but his stor hysteria is not in order. you agree with the article which is a little choice on the president? we will be back. ♪ >> good morning, everyone. negative seven on s&p futures. on sunday comes something else going on. oliver sarkozy will not be stressed on sunday. thinkers of all sizes are stressing. -- bankers of all sizes are stressing. pass thebarely will stress test. even though the pass rate for the test will be strong, there will be many banks close to the pain threshold. there is no easy solution. this from the team at rbs. when you look at this, they don't all pass. ,> if you were to administer it you would end up with different results. the europeans have to walk a fine line. they need the test to be viewed as credible by the market. they need to be cautious not to stoke the fears and incite panic. the headlines came out a few years back of the u.s. stress test. are these easier or more rigorous? >> he will be very similar. the positive development here is not being focused on. you have the ecb putting an overall umbrella on bank regulation in europe. before, it was done country by country. it was very inefficient. very strong to centralize that oversight. >> credit should start flowing. one third supply-side issue? >> it is weak demand. it is popular to think the banks don't want to lend. the banks want to lend. >> too big to fail is a different concept in europe. in france, we have seen the dominant bmp. thana different regime america. are we worried about the big banks in europe or the debris underneath them? >> entire european banking system. of theour times the size banking system here in the united states. our economy is similarly sized. includes your swiss bank? >> i don't know anything about my swiss bank account. i don't even know who you are. i want to bring in my morning must-read. i wonder whether this is an economic problem or a cultural problem as well within europe. dead.ral economy is -- the moral economy of debt. i think the sacred right of the creditor. do they have to let it go? >> they have a very different construct. there, the banks are huge for one reason. they are the lender to the governments. the governments are the bar were -- are the borrower. it has to be treated differently. it is going to become located for europe to try to work its way through this. >> by raising more capital, the hows and investors bemoan the banks have become more like utilities. does that make them better investments if you're on the credit side? ultimately, there is going to be a balance. the market forces at the issue rely so heavily on the credit markets. if they stop funding them, you have a huge issue because you have highly leveraged balance sheets where liquidity dries up. in the west, it's funded by deposits. season --earnings would you suggest that our american banks have to get up abroadption to expand because the europeans are going to be destructive at home? >> highly unlikely to happen because of regulation. all of the creditor countries are contracting their capital as fast as they can to figure out what they can do with it at home. is there any structure they can put in place to diverge lending again? >> 20 be difficult. -- it's going to be difficult. the banks are playing defense. it's going to be a much tougher road to see cross-border lending. each country does -- is well over banked. you will see the banks sell and their balance sheet will shrink. the have an opportunity to put that in place with the knowledge that's been given -- gained in the net states. -- in the united states. >> partial eclipse banking. astronomical finance this morning. no one got that? -- should we do an agenda of bad jokes? >> let's look at the stories that will shape the day. we will be focused on cord cutting. -- thiscoverage of comes after cbs and hbo offer online content. its way overdone. >> what about you? >> i'm looking to the elections in brazil on sunday. all of looking to d.c. on sunday. what is your agenda for the football game on sunday? >> hopefully the redskins can pull out a third victory. >> even cautious in sports. >> should they be the redskins or do they need a name change? >> i personally don't have a problem with it. i'm not the demographic that's going to get offended. he is so good at not answering questions. >> why are you not a politician? >> i suggest you run for president of the french republic. my agenda is more serious. a little less -- we try to bring new clarity about what's going on at our bellevue hospital this morning. interviews on ebola. this gets more serious. we just need to talk about the science of it in the epidemiology. >> we have to focus on west africa. there is a torrent of misery there. we can handle bellevue. >> let's get to our twitter question of the day. or you changing anything you do because of the bullet in the u.s.? ebola in the u.s.? >> you had the influenza epidemic. >> no, but slightly concerned with using public transportation. no, don't engage in high-risk behavior. somebody has a left over starbucks in there over, i won't drink out of it -- in their uber , i won't drink out of it. on the middle east right now, the islamic state, the news flow .ontinues do we have any control of the world order in the middle east right now? >> i don't think so. isis is a reflection of that. it was born out of failed policy over a decade. can the french provide leadership across the northern middle east? they have done a good job given the challenges and the heritage there. >> there is a long history of french involvement in that part of the world. this is going to be deeper and longer than a single country. >> we have a drinking game. >> oliver sarkozy, thank you for joining us this morning. "bloomberg surveillance" on radio continues. "in the loop" is up next. ♪ >> good morning. it is friday, october 24, and we are live from bloomberg world headquarters. we are "in the loop," and i am betty liu. we have a packed show. ebola coming to new york city. what do we need to see from the new ebola czar? arp -- the former tarp feinberg, will be joining me in a few moments. should there be a travel ban? the former american airlines ceo is joining me. we have a special on bloomberg television, "making the cut," they look at the future of television and being untethered to your cable box. we will talk to an investor and integrator of digital media companies. case of ebolat diagnosed in the biggest city in the u.s.. a doctor being treated in a new york. dr. spencer came dow