Moments. Meanwhile, European Service and manufacturing data both came and marioicted draghi making the case yesterday why Additional Services needed. Here is the only thing. The Unemployment Rate expected to be 6. 1 . It is Holding Steady for four months and has not gotten any better. That is one of the tensions. China, india, israel, and germany are all closed for various holidays today. This is the 20th anniversary ofs is the 25th anniversary reunification and germany, the east and the west back together. That really struck me today. 1989. It makes sense. Anniversary25th earlier this summer. All of those days the one i remember is Christmas Day of i maybe 1990,1989, the fall of romania. That was church escrow you know what sticks in my mind, mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. Nice one. Another president , president obama will be in indiana today at a steel mill talking about jobs. He took that victory lap yesterday pointing to better data here. A data check right now. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities futures up 8. Crude 90. 90. It is a front page that is very fluid. Tensions are flaring in hong kong. There was a scuffle between protesters and those in the district, across the harbor from the central district. We know civil employees could not get to work because they are still barricaded there. Bigger barricades ian bremmer is out on twitter saying do not go into the government buildings. And the fluidity of the last 60 minutes is a little bit of protest. And you are seeing protests you are seeing live shots from the streets where there are protesters waiting to see how it plays out. We will check in with andrew davis, who joins us from our studio in hong kong. We see the tensions rising. There are scuffles between protesters and i believe middle asian elderly people. Of someemblematic growing sense of dissatisfaction protests are proceeding . I dont know if it is dissatisfaction with how they are proceeding, but there is an element of protest fatigue out there. The occupation has been going on for five days, the protests for a full week now. For People Living in the neighborhood is it has very been for people having in the neighborhoods, it has been very disruptive. So, yes, there is a resentment particularly in those neighborhoods because they really are neighborhoods, much more then the Central Business district. That area. Just amon we also saw people removing barricades today of one of the main thoroughfares that is still blocked, and the protesters coming back and police came into separate. I think that one area has been more violent. Holiday,ne with the people have gone back to work. The numbers have dwindled at the iftests site, which means you are against the protests it does not take too much force to get in there. Police are pushing aside the media, certainly, as they try to break up what had been a scuffle. We also saw shots of the Central Business district where things are a lot colder. Where things are a lot calmer. Are people taking off the weekend, or do you suggest we will see further tensions into saturday and sunday . The way these protests have been going is that during the day they thin out. People go home, they rest, they shower, and then they come back in the evening. I suspect it will stay calm and sunday. Morrow unless things escalate. In the evening is when tensions begin to rise again, and then it goes into the night. The students did not get anything from their ultimatum. The chief executive did not step down by midnight last night. They threatened to escalate. At the same time they are appealing for calm. They do not they are making pleas for the rest of the protesters cannot ratcheted up too much. They do not want to provoke the police and lose the goodwill that they have earned by taking the tear gas last week. They have been offered talks but not on the terms that they want. It remains to be seen what the students next move is. We will be on the watch for that. Thank you for bringing us uptodate on the latest from hong kong. Second frontpage story an update on the date hack attack on jp morgan. It was bigger than thought or reported. August thatosed in took place in june. 70 6 million households and 7 million Small Businesses were affected. Is nogan says there evidence that account numbers and passwords were compromised, so it is not clear that money was taken. Might money get taken in the future . You do not know. And say ito the bank want a new account number, i am going to change my password . Password e a , ii was in hong kong once got a phone call in the hotel. I pick up the phone, it is j. P. Morgan chase from new york saying have you ever been to minnesota. I said no. They said, well, your charge card has. An amex card, for literally three years afterwards, i was getting all kinds of letters about a theoretical wife that i had who had asked for a separate card. A theoretical wife. Lets go to our third frontpage story. You go, scarlett. Warren buffett losing some money. He calls the deal with tesco a big mistake. He has become a car guy because he agreed to buy the largest of auto dealers, privately owned, in the u. S. Announced,e deal not but i am sure it was plenty of cash. It is also curious he is effectively coming back to the u. S. On the same day he is leaving the u. K. What he does expertly, he finds Good American businesses that are growing, and he lets people run them. Retail is tough business. From you for the coverage hong kong. It is jobs day in america. There is a great mystery over what to expect after last months great disappointment. There has been a great jumble of good and not so good data. Ellen is at morgan stanley. She suggests we will not see great wage growth at 8 30. In this particular report, we are looking for hourly average earnings to be up 2 . That will keep the growth rate steady. We have not started to see a celebration or a breaking above the levels of growth we need to indicate that the labor market is getting tighter, but it has almost become a matter of when you are on the Trading Floor these days, you get a sense that the fixed income markets are more focused on the wage data within the report than the headline important than the headline employment, which is incredible. Isnt that the leading indicator on fed policy because of the wage price spiral . Wage growth becomes a prerequisite for the fed raging the fed raising rates. We are in a very different environment today. People are becoming increasingly aware that the fed is not going to be able to raise rates if there is this unsustainable relationship in the economy where wage growth cannot outpace inflation. I want to get your take on president obama. He gave a speech yesterday talking about the economy. He was in effect taking a victory lap for how the economy has done during his time as president. Is he right in claiming victory here . The numbers are better. To temper our expectations on the economy because this is a postfinancial crisis world. His critics would say why has he taken us this long to get back andrevious levels of jobs previous levels of economic activity, and this is a postfinancial crisis world, and those adjustments do take a very long time. Not every sector is perfect. We had an incredible loss of real estate wealth, and even with years of home price gains, we are still trillions of dollars in the hole in terms of real estate. From real created estate really influences the majority of u. S. Households. It is something that janet yellen has focused on. It has led to a lack of better financial expectations on the part of households. Tner, you bring up a good point and that brings us to our twitter question. Is 6 unemployment the new mediocre . We need a multilateral company news this morning. Lets start with general motors, recalling almost 118,000 vehicles over concerned that they could stall or fails to start. This action includes over 98,000 in the u. S. This is now g. M. s 69th recall this year. Radioshack moves to stave off bankruptcy. The Electronics Chain has reached a 590 million refinancing deal that will allow them to restock ahead of the holidays. The lender is a Consortium Led by standard general. And walt disney extends the term of bob iger. The new deal keeps the chairman 2018eo in place until june. That is the it is company news. Content was king yesterday at georgetown university. Lagarde spoke. Up, my conversation with madame lagarde. From new york city, good morning. It is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Politicss bloomberg respect,with all due monday, october 6, at 5 00 p. M. On bloomberg television. 31 days. We are 31 days away from the midterms. About all very excited this program, with all due respect, beginning monday, october 6. Yesterday it was the new mediocre, so says Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the imf. Speeche an important yesterday at georgetown university. She spoke to me on the struggle of economic growth. Gave, youech that you said, we will not return to the precrisis world. Are the g 20 nations finally catching up with lagarde . Concerned then and i am still concerned today which is why i talked this morning about the new the risk of this new mediocre. The new mediocrity that is out there how is that different from dr. Elerian or . R. Gross new neutral the new mediocre has three components, if you will. It still has the legacies of the prices. High indebtedness, both sovereign and corporate households sometimes. It has high unemployment in many corners of the world. Those are the legacies. Then we are facing serious clouds on the horizon, and we have a lot of uncertainty. You combined the legacies, the clouds, and the uncertainty, you have the rise of this new mediocre, where we are revising potential growth. Basis, on ass calculus basis i see it mostly a decline in commodity prices. Are economists about what the markets are telling them about the new mediocre . Marketse watching the with a concern and with a lot of hesitation, because there is clearly a discrepancy between the buoyancy of the markets in many ways. The forex is a little bit different. Thee boy nantz buoyancy of the markets is a little bit different. At the other end, we see the real economy, where recovery is not really strong. Fragilereas of very recovery. So there is that discrepancy with the two, which is quite worrying. Mr. Draghi spoke today. I watched how the markets reacted to his nonnews. You need someone besides janet yellen, mario draghi, and the rest of them to step in with a policy momentum. That is your new momentum. Will the will where that come from . First of all, i totally agree with you, that these ladies and gentlemen have done their best. But it cannot be alone. We need the right pace and mix of fiscal measures in those countries the need to continue to adopt their public finance. We need to have serious Structural Reforms in place to unleash the potential that those economies have. Our recommendation in order to address the shortterm demand issue, as well as the improvement in the median term is investment in infrastructure. It is needed across the world. I like how you parse that out about infrastructure. You were critical of the United States, im guessing a year ago, at the economic club. Look at 4 gdp last quarter. Ad you give the United States victory lap . It is clearly one of the bright spots. That the youth that the u. S. Pops out, and the u. K. Does as well. But clearly, on the infrastructure and investment front, more needs to be done. Met him Christine Lagarde or it i spoke to her about hong kong. Here it is front and center this morning. We are seeing live images of a bigistrict, north of shopping area for the hong kong people and also tourists. There is a huge crowd gathering because there are reported scuffles between prodemocracy protesters and some people who are opposed to the protests because it is getting the it is getting in the way of their life. Daily we do not know who attacked to or how it played out. The protests have been fairly peaceful. That no longer seems to be the case. That no longer seems to be the case, and andrew davis was especially telling us that this is starting to infringe on residential district. A shopping north of district. A lot of businesses, very dense. I can see the hotel there. We wantut as deep to be careful here. There are protests going on and scuffling i think is the right word. Some people have reported ambulances trying to get through that crowd. The hong kong, hang seng index up for the first time in five days. We will be monitoring the situation in hong kong and be right back on bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. Im adam johnson, with tom keene and scarlet fu. My morning mustread comes from the wall street journal. The truth always contains uncomfortable elements, and in the cdc news conference, very werencomfortable elements allowed. Sometimes it looks as if everyone in public life is in showbiz. Prepare my talking points cdceems she is accusing the of not being straight with the public. That there are only a handful of people affected. They are trying to manage perception, which bumps up against reality. They are having trouble cleaning and sanitizing the apartment of the person with ebola. No one wants to jeopardize their own health. One can only imagine how unions might respond. It is something we will continue to monitor. There does not seem to be a whole lot of policy. It is testing the agency, isnt it . We are going to continue to cover all this and bring you the twitter question of the day since it is jobs day. His 6 unemployment the new mediocre . bloombergsurveillance. As bloomberg surveillance centerst post morning, i wa is was newspaper says the just . 2d spend billion to resolve that is the most since may. A lawyer threatens to sue google for 100 million, accusing the search giant of profiting from nude images of celebrities like jennifer lawrence. Attorney marty singer says google has done not nearly enough to remove the pictures from the search index. Market is tight when the former fed chairman himself cannot refinance his home loan. Ben bernanke says he received that he recently made an attempt to refinance and was unsuccessful. He said the first time homebuyer market is not what it should be. Those are the top headlines. What is going on here . He does not have a steady government paycheck anymore. He gets a lot of money from speaking fees, but that is not consistent. Someone on twitter said he should die he should dial 1800lloyd. You are using Ben Bernankes own words early after the financial crisis that regulation is a pendulum that swings too far in the other direction. The former chairman cannot refinance. It is stricter guidelines today, and oftentimes for refinances, it depends on how you look on paper. Face tonot sitting down face talking to your banker and the banker saying it is ok, bernanke does not have a steady income but we know that he gets paid incredibly well when he does speak. Abahe president of the talking about those mainstreet bankers. Here are some other numbers we are focused on today. Unemployment comes out at 8 30, and for the seventh month in a row the average work week remaining stuck at 34. 5 hours. Is the chief economist at morgan stanley. How much longer can the economy rs rise andre hou people are inevitable he paid more . It is another sign of when labor markets get tighter. You move more parttime people to fulltime and you see the hours worked per week expand. That would be a sign of tighter labor markets. Also the Unemployment Rate is typically a broad indicator of how tight the labor market is. We have issues with using the single metric to tell us how tight the labor market is are Labor Force Participation rates there. Unemployment rates seem to be stuck for the last four months at 6. 1 . We have seen the decline in Labor Force Participation has slowed, and that will slow the decline in the Unemployment Rate, not necessarily for bad reasons. More people are being counted. Or people are being counted, coming back in the labor force. Or lets just say less people are leaving. I was curious about the confidence numbers that came out prior to the report, that the assessment of labor Market Conditions was so poor. Sometimesonder people go back into the labor market to look for jobs because they thought they were easier to get, and they got a door shut in their face. What is the likelihood of back to back lousy reports . Ody is modeling in another if you look at the data that goes into modeling these highfrequency numbers when you have jobless claims that are incredibly low, indicative of a strong expansion in the labor market, and do not have mass layoffs in a particular industry that we are dealing with this month. That was some of the reason we got a low jobs number in august, was a particular strike that has now been resolved. You look at the fundamentals, and there is nothing that says labor Market Conditions have deteriorated. Onre was the curious report Consumer Confidence where they gave the labor market a thumbs down. That poses risks for today. 4 4. 6 growth gdp growth in the second quarter. That is strong. What is your forecast for gdp growth in the Third Quarter . You average the first half, we are talking 1. 5 growth. We are tracking just above 3 for the Third Quarter, and that is not bad growth. We think we will average 3 . We definitely took some damage, blasting damage, just from the lastinghan normal damage, just from the colder than normal winter. Scarlet, Macro Economic bring it down to 2. 8 . Differently. Es it everyone is going to be focusing on wage numbers in todays report. My morning mustread is from noah smith, a columnist at bloomberg view. Streeters might get paid more for the same reason garbage collectors, plumbers, and m ballmers get paid more. It is a dirty job. This is adam smiths theory of wages compensating differentials. Re does this make sense to you . It makes perfect sense to me. We get paid well for what we do. We devote our lives to the firm, we spend a lot of hours at the firm. We often joke if you divide the amount of hours that we s